Archive for July, 2011
Series Preview: Seattle Mariners
Posted by: | CommentsThis one has trap series written all over it folks, and I’ll explain why in a second. The Yankees and Mariners have met once before this season, in Seattle back at the end of May. The Yankees lost two of three but had leads in all three games, they just couldn’t close things out.
What Have The Mariners Done Lately?
Losing. Lots and lots of losing. As in a franchise-record 15 losses in a row. Seriously. The Mariners haven’t won a game since July 5th, when they beat the Athletics 4-2. They’ve been outscored 87-40 during the losing streak, and eight of those 40 runs came yesterday. All told, the Mariners are 43-58 with a -50 run differential, the third worst record and run differential in the AL. It seems inevitable that they’ll end that ugly losing streak in the Bronx, if not win the series.
Mariners On Offense
Seattle scored just 513 runs last season, the worst run production in the DH era. They’re on pace for 533 this season, so I guess that’s improvement. For comparison’s sake, the Yankees have already scored 513 runs on the season. Think about that. The Mariners are hitting .226/.289/.334 with a .279 wOBA as a team, MLB worsts in everything but SLG. They’re one point ahead of the Padres in that department.
It all starts at the top, where Ichiro Suzuki is going through the same kind of painful-to-watch age-related decline as Derek Jeter. He went 2-for-5 yesterday and that raised his season line to .268/.315/.318. Brutal. Brendan Ryan was a pain the last two times these two clubs met, and he’s hitting .264/.324/.342 as the regular two-hitter. He did go 2-for-4 yesterday and is on a nice little .305/.362/.436 tear over the last 30 days though. Dustin Ackley was called up a little more than a month ago and has already emerged as the team’s best hitter. He’s up to .297/.347/.505 on the season following yesterday’s 2-for-5. Everything kinda goes downhill from there.
When these two clubs met in May, Justin Smoak was at .263/.365/.461 on the season and making the Mariners looking very smart for taking him over Jesus Montero last July. He’s hitting just .190/.278/.341 since then, and we’re talking about 205 plate appearances. That’s dragged Smoak’s season line down to .244/.319/.396. Miguel Olivo has been hitting cleanup with his .223/.260/.395 batting line, and both Adam Kennedy (.251/.297/.382) and Jack Cust (.214/.347/.332) are getting regular at-bats. Franklin Gutierrez catches everything hit in the air and between the lines, but he’s all the way down to .192/.230/.231. Mike Carp (.263/.344/.439 in limited action) is now the regular left fielder, but it’s just 64 PA. That’s their regular lineup, though Chone Figgins (.182/.236/.240), Greg Halman (.256/.284/.385), Jack Wilson (.229/.259/.252), and Josh Bard (.222/.243/.417) almost might make appearances. It’s an ugly offense, as ugly as it gets.
Mariners On The Mound
Monday, LHP Jason Vargas (vs. Freddy Garcia): The Yankees tagged Vargas for six runs in three innings back in May, and he’s coming off back-to-back five-run outings. His 3.94 ERA lines right up with his 3.96 FIP, and his peripheral stats aren’t anything to write home about: 5.80 K/9, 2.35 uIBB/9, and 37.3% grounders. Vargas throws four pitches regularly but will mix in two others; his high-80′s four and two-seamers set up his low-80′s changeup, and he’ll also throw some mid-80′s cutters. Every once in a while you’ll see a curveball or slider. He doesn’t have much of a platoon split because of the changeup, but Vargas is a fly ball pitcher that doesn’t miss bats. Handedness shouldn’t matter much.
Tuesday, RHP Doug Fister (vs. CC Sabathia): The Yankees drafted Fister once upon a time, back in the sixth round of 2005. He didn’t sign and went back to Fresno State for another year, then the Mariners grabbed him in the seventh round of the 2006 draft. Fister has developed into a very nice starting pitcher in his second full-season, backing up his 3.30 ERA with a 3.19 FIP. His strikeout rate sucks (5.44 K/9), but he’s even stingier with the walks than Vargas (1.88 uIBB/9) and does a much better job of keeping the ball on the ground (45.5%). He gets good downhill plane from his 6-foot-8 frame and pounds the zone with his high-80′s four and two-seamers. A mid-70′s curveball and a mid-80s slider are his go-to secondary offerings, but we’ll also see a low-80′s change on occasion. The Yankees have not faced Fister this season or last, so the only experience they have against him is a pair of starts in 2009 (7 IP, 3 R and 4 IP, 6 R).
Wednesday, RHP Felix Hernandez (vs. Phil Hughes): Long live the king. Felix won the Cy Young Award with a 3.04 FIP and a 3.14 xFIP last season, and this year he’s at 3.11 and 3.11, respectively. Don’t be fooled by the 3.47 ERA, blame that on a low (for him) 72.0% strand rate. It had been north of 76% in the past. His .299 BABIP is also his highest in three years. Hernandez’s peripherals are still as good as it gets (8.43 K/9, 2.73 uIBB/9, 48.9% grounders), and his stuff is world class: mid-90′s with both the four and two-seamers, a high-80′s changeup, a mid-80′s slider, and a low-80′s curve. There are few better than Felix, who has made a habit of wrecking the Yankees in recent years. Yeah, they got to him for four runs in seven innings earlier this year, but that was a minor miracle. When it comes to pitchers of this caliber, history doesn’t matter.
Bullpen: The Red Sox did the Yankees a favor by taxing Seattle’s bullpen yesterday, forcing four relievers to throw 72 pitches across 3.2 IP. One of those four relievers was lefty Aaron Laffey (4.65 FIP), who recorded zero outs but gave up four hits and three runs on a dozen pitches. He also threw 18 pitches on Saturday, so he might not be an option tonight. He’s their only lefty in the ‘pen.
Closer Brandon League (2.69 FIP) threw 18 pitches, but he was just getting work in the blowout. Sometimes setup guy Jamey Wright (4.76 FIP) threw 28 pitches, and garbage time reliever Josh Lueke (4.54 FIP in limiting time) threw 14 pitches. David Pauley (3.36) is the Mariners’ relief ace, and you’ve also got some guy named Jeff Gray (3.42 FIP) and Yankees’ punching bag Chris Ray (3.54 FIP). They typically get the job done, though most of these guys are no names.
Recommended Mariners Reading: U.S.S. Mariner and Lookout Landing. Remember that RAB Tickets can get you to any of the three games for cheap.
2011 Draft: Yankees sign fourth rounder Matt Duran
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees have signed fourth round pick Matt Duran, or at least that’s what this tweet from the kid suggests. The team hasn’t confirmed the signing yet, but given the context of Duran’s tweet, I’d say it’s a pretty safe bet. Baseball America (subs. req’d) said the New Rochelle native “generates plus raw power from his 6-foot-1, 220-pound build” and “has a long swing and can drive the ball to all fields.” Because of his limited defensive skills, he’s likely to move off third base down the road, probably to first. I don’t know what kind of signing bonus he received, but MLB’s slot recommendation for the 149th overall pick is $171,000. I figure the rookie level GCL Yankees are in his immediate future.
Update: Jim Callis says Duran got $335,000, so almost double slot. Good for him.
Fan Confidence Poll: June 25th, 2011
Posted by: | CommentsRecord Last Week: 4-3 (39 RS, 25 RA)
Season Record: 59-40 (513 RS, 385 RA, 63-36 pythag. record), three games back in the loss column
Opponents This Week: vs. Mariners (three games, Mon. to Weds.) Thurs. OFF, vs. Orioles (four games, Fri. to Sun., two on Sat.)
Top stories from last week:
- Four games in Tampa opened the week, and the Yankees beat a pair of rookie pitchers in the opener. Some defensive gaffs cost them the next day, but Freddy Garcia and Curtis Granderson got them a win in the third game. James Shields outdueled CC Sabathia in the finale.
- In their first home series since the All-Star break, the Yankees welcomed the A’s to the Bronx by scoring 17 runs in the opener. Some late rallies fell short on Saturday, but they held off a late barrage to win the rubber game.
- Injury News: Ivan Nova injured his ankle in Triple-A and was placed on the disabled list. Both Eric Chavez and Rafael Soriano started rehab assignments last week, and will return this week. Alex Rodriguez is doing fine in his rehab from knee surgery. Sergio Mitre was placed on the disabled list with a number of ailments, including shoulder tendinitis.
- Adam Warren is being prepared to start against the Orioles in Saturday’s doubleheader. Steve Garrison took Mitre’s spot on the roster. Marcus Thames was re-signed to a minor league contract.
- The Yankees called the Rays about Shields, but were told he’s not available. They’re also unlikely to make a trade for Mike Adams, though they have interest in Tyler Clippard and Craig Breslow. The Yanks have not asked Andy Pettitte to come out of retirement.
- Yankee Stadium added a new Torrisi-run Parm sandwich shop to the Great Hall.
- Plans for the third annual HOPE Week were announced.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
SWB beats in old friend as Soriano rehabs
Posted by: | CommentsCommenter mbonzo was kind enough to put together a makeshift DotF in my absence last night, so check that out for last night’s update. Dante Bichette Jr.’s on some kind of tear, 4-for-4 with two walks and two doubles yesterday has him up to .500/.569/.786 in his last ten games and .305/.448/.484 on the season. As for Dellin Betances, he left last night’s game with the trainer, but apparently it was just heat related. He labored that inning (30+ pitches) and just ran out of gas covering first. If there’s any definitive update, we’ll obviously keep you updated.
Triple-A Scranton (7-2 win over Syracuse)
Rafael Soriano, RHP: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 2-0 GB/FB - gave up a leadoff homer to this guy and then refused to talk to the media after the game, so he’s in midseason form … he didn’t start, this was the first time during his rehab that he warmed up and came out of the bullpen … apparently there’s a chance he’ll pitch again tomorrow, and after that he might rejoin the big league team … nothing confirmed yet though
Kevin Russo, 3B: 1 for 4, 2 K, 1 SB
Greg Golson, LF: 0 for 3, 1 R, 2 K, 1 HBP – threw a runner out at the plate
Jesus Montero, DH: 2 for 4, 2 R, 2 2B, 1 RBI – one of the doubles was off the top of the wall, almost a homer … he’s ruining the narrative by raising his OPS, that jerk
Mike Lamb, 1B, Gus Molina, C, Luis Nunez, 2B & Doug Bernier, SS: all 1 for 4 – Gus hit a three-run homer and whiffed … Nunez doubled and drove in a run
Jordan Parraz, RF: 2 for 3, 1 R, 1 3B, 2 RBI, 1 K – threw a runner out at second
Austin Krum, CF: 1 for 3, 2 R, 1 BB
Andrew Brackman, RHP: 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 5 BB, 0 K, 5-1 GB/FB - just 35 of 73 pitches were strikes (47.9%) … he was the starter, but yawn, another bad outing in a terrible year
Josh Schmidt, RHP: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1-1 GB/FB – 16 of 23 pitches were strikes (69.6%)
Randy Flores, LHP: 1 IP, zeroes, 0-3 GB/FB – nine of 12 pitches were strikes
Eric Wordekemper, RHP: 1 IP, zeroes, 2 K – 11 of 15 pitches were strikes (73.3%)
For Old Time’s Sake
Chien-Ming Wang, RHP: 5 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 WP, 5-4 GB/FB – 63 of 96 pitches were strikes (56.6%) … gave up Molina’s homer and Montero’s almost homer … that’s it for him, the team announced that he’ll start against the Mets on Friday … I do wish him the best because it’s been a long, long road back (he hasn’t been an effective pitcher since June of 2008), so good luck Wanger
Cashman: Chavez will return Tuesday, Soriano Wednesday or Thursday
Posted by: | CommentsVia Ian Begley, Brian Cashman said today that Eric Chavez will be activated off the disabled list on Tuesday. Rafael Soriano will pitch again tomorrow after pitching today, then he’ll be activated either Wednesday or Thursday. Chavez played his sixth rehab game today and he’s hit well (.333 with two doubles and a homer), but that means nothing. The important thing is that he’s healthy. Soriano hasn’t been great in rehab, but again, it’s all about his health. As long he’s throwing well, the rest should fall into place.
Cashman also said that Alex Rodriguez is progressing well in his rehab from knee surgery, and he could be back as soon as the second week of August. They’re not going to push it though, they have enough offense and a big enough lead in the wildcard race. A-Rod will be back when he’s ready.
Open Thread: Curtis Granderson’s E:60
Posted by: | CommentsI mentioned Curtis Granderson‘s appearance on ESPN’s E:60 last week, and now the video is up online. I can’t embed it unfortunately, so you’ll have to go here to watch it, which I strongly recommend. The eight minute or so video looks a little bit at Curtis’ upbringing but mostly discusses his relationship with the family of Brian Bluhm, who was killed in the shootings at Virginia Tech in 2007. Bluhm was a Tigers fan and a Granderson fan, and he was a regular on the baseball blogosphere just like you and me. Give it a watch, it’s a bit of a somber story with a heartwarming ending.
Once you’re done watching the video, use this as your open thread. The ESPN Sunday Night Game has the Braves at the Reds with an interesting pitching matchup. Personal fave Brandon Beachy (10.13 K/ and 1.88 uIBB/9) gets the ball for Atlanta while the reanimated corpse of Dontrelle Willis (!!!) goes for Cincy. Talk about the game or whatever else your heart desire. You know what to do, so have at it.
Yankees have interest in Tyler Clippard, Craig Breslow
Posted by: | CommentsVia Nick Cafardo, the Yankees have varying levels of interest in relievers Tyler Clippard and Craig Breslow. Yankees fans should be familiar with Clippard, who has blossomed into one of the game’s best relievers since being traded away. I can’t imagine the Nationals are going to just give him away though, so I don’t rally expect a deal to happen.
As for Breslow, he’s left-handed and breathing, so of course the Yankees will have interest. He’s got a shiny 2.93 ERA with the Athletics, but ERA is a bad way to evaluate relievers. His real value comes from being able to handle both righty (.207/.291/.331 against since joining the A’s in 2009) and lefty (.240/.290/.388) batters, but Breslow hasn’t been effective against same-side batters this year (.390/.403/.559). That’s probably a sample size thing though (just 62 PA). He’s making $1.4M this year and would be under team control through 2013 as an arbitration-eligible player. He’d be a decent pickup, but not anyone that would save the season.
Game 99: Bartday
Posted by: | CommentsBartolo Colon pitched against the Athletics earlier this season, and I think we all remember what happened. It was his best performance of the year, a dominant complete game shutout in which the A’s got exactly two runners into scoring position and didn’t get a man to third base until there was one out in the ninth. Colon was pretty dang good against the Rays last time out, so hopefully he carries that over and dominates a weak lineup. Here’s the Yankees’ starting nine…
Derek Jeter, DH
Curtis Granderson, CF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Nick Swisher, RF
Russell Martin, C
Andruw Jones, LF
Eduardo Nunez, SS
Brandon Laird, 3B
Bartolo Colon, SP
The game starts a little after 1pm ET and can be seen on YES. Enjoy.













