2011 Draft: Closing Thoughts
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We can finally put a bow on the 2011 draft now that the signing deadline has passed, and according to Baseball America’s draft database (no subs. req’d), the Yankees signed just 22 of their 50 selections. That assumes the Chaz Hebert and Joey Maher report is correct but BA is still in the process of updating their info. A typical signing class is usually 30 players or so, maybe 35 in a good year, so the Yankees are a bit below that. It’s possible that some signings just haven’t been reported yet, especially some of the lesser prospects, but I can’t imagine it’s more than two or three guys, maybe five at the most.
The actual draft, all 50 rounds, is just step one of the process. Getting the kids under contract is another matter entirely, and now that we know who did and who didn’t sign on the dotted line, we can get a much clearer picture of the kind of talent the Yankees imported this year. Let’s digest it all…
- Based on the info in Baseball America’s advanced database (subs. req’d), the Yankees spent at least $5.6225M on this year’s draft. That’s all the over-slot signings, but does not include Hebert, Maher, and seven others. Let’s round up and call it an even $6M. Compared to the last few years, when they spent around $7-8M, that’s light. I’d happily take one less brand name LOOGY per year if it meant pumping another $2-4M into the draft budget.
- Not signing second rounder Sam Stafford stinks even though they’ll get that pick back next year. You’d always like to have the player now rather than pick later. However, if the medicals didn’t check out, then I can’t fault them for passing. There’s only so much homework you’re allowed to do before the draft. Remember, they ran into a similar problem with Scott Bittle in 2008, and they turned the compensation pick into J.R. Murphy while Bittle blew out his arm. The Stafford comp pick will be #89 overall next year no matter what, and they can’t lose that pick for signing a free agent. Here’s a list of all the comp picks in next year’s draft.
- Among the guys they did sign, fifth rounder Greg Bird got the most money ($1.1M) and is probably the best prospect. I assume they’re going to try him at catcher (they announced him as a catcher at the draft), but I’m not sure how that will work out. If it doesn’t, his bat is going to have to carry him, and you’d like to see a little more well-roundness from your top draft prospect.
- Dante Bichette Jr. ($750k), Matt Duran ($335k), and Bubba Jones ($350k) are all cut from the same cloth: bat-first prospects that are already relegated to a corner spot. Bichette is the best prospect of the trio and has the best chance to make it work in a corner outfield spot. That’s not saying much though. Jake Cave ($825k) is a bit more dynamic offensively and has a chance to provide some value on defense. Justin James probably has the best all-around tools package, but he’s super raw and a bit of a project.
- The Yankees did a much better job on the mound, which has been a running theme the last few years. Jordan Cote ($725k), Dan Camarena ($335k), Hayden Sharp ($200k), and Rookie Davis ($550k) are all high school upside plays, with Cote and Sharp having the most potential but also the least amount of refinement. I like Camarena more than most, Davis less than most. Hebert and Maher are two more interesting arms, assuming they did actually sign.
- And, of course, the Yankees used a few picks to refill the bullpen pipeline, grabbing power college arms like Mark Montgomery, Branden Pinder, Ben Paullus, Phil Wetherell, and Zach Arneson. They’ve done a good job of incorporating these kinds of guys into the big league roster in recent years, but they’ve still got some work to do with the starting pitchers.
- I really liked the Yankees’ draft haul last year (if people bothered to look beyond the Cito Culver pick, they’d like it too), lots more than this year. Last year they got up the middle position players with upside, this year it was all corner bats, the easiest thing to find on the free agent market. This is nowhere near a weak class, but I’m left wanting more. Knowing what we do at this very moment right now, I just can’t give this year’s draft haul anything more than a C. It feels they drafted for need more than anything.
And finally, because I know everyone is waiting with bated breath, yes the Pirates did sign first overall pick and 2008 Yankees’ first rounder Gerrit Cole. He got $8M but not a big league contract, which blows my mind. How Scott Boras let that happen, I’ll never know. Anyway, the $8M is by far the largest up front bonus in draft history, surpassing the $6.5M the Buccos have Jameson Taillon last year. So what do you think, ~$4M from the Yankees in 2008 or three years at UCLA plus $8M from the Pirates in 2011? I think the kid made the right choice, I think it’s pretty clear in hindsight.
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The Mason Williams Watch
sigh. cole, pirates opening day starter in 2012? or 2013?
I disagree with the C rating. Bichette, Duran and Cave all have nice upside from what I’ve read, and James looks to have an exciting package. It’s way too early to rate the draft, let ‘em play for a few seasons before making some assumptions (Culver hasn’t been awful in his first full season, no?). Oppenheimer and friends definitely know these players better than any of us
Did I hear you right? “James looks to have an exciting package” Are you gay?
What if he was? Is that supposed to be some kind of insult?
uh no just making fun of him. Are you? ;0)
Looking now at the draft you have to think that the Yankees are making it hard to get premium cheap talent especially in a deep draft.
He got $8M but not a big league contract, which blows my mind.
Wonder if all parties were willing to sacrifice ML contract for more up-front? Really might be better for all parties if they did go that route.
It’s definitely better for the team, but a ML deal for the top college pitcher available is market value. Cole’s losing out on all the benefits to being on the 40-man roster, which is union royalties and one of the best medical benefit packages in the workforce.
Just seems very weird.
None of that matters to the Coles because they are rich!
Cole has already established that when it comes to a risk vs reward decision, he values the reward highly.
Turning down $4m turned out to be the right move for him, but the odds were heavily against that happening. There’s only a handful of guys that top that bonus each year. Things had to play out perfectly for him to significantly beat that $4m offer. Luckily for him they did.
In this case, he gets the money up front rather than spread out over 5 or so years. If he makes the majors quickly, all he’s really losing out on is he’ll have a little lower starting salary going into arbitration. The medical plan is probably a non issue – I can’t see the Pirates giving him $8m and then letting him get second rate medical care if something happens.
I can’t see the Pirates giving him $8m and then letting him get second rate medical care if something happens.
We just signed you for $8M, but can you please go to the free clinic down the street to get your shoulder checked out?
It’s not just him though, it’s health care and stuff for his family. I have no idea if the kid is married and/or has kids or plans to at some point in the next year or two.
I hadn’t considered that possibility. Just assumed that was a non-issue based on his age.
Boras did say though that they expect him to reach the majors within a year, so I guess they think he’ll earn his way onto the 40 man roster before that’s a concern worth worrying about.
Pretty much all the top picks for the Yanks this year High School players or did I miss a college player in there?
Stafford was a college guy, but almost all of the best prospects they selected are high schoolers.
Can’t help but feel ownership being cheap is going to screw is in the long run. There is no excuse to only spend 5 or 6 million when the benefits of the draft stare them in the face every day,(hello BG and DRobb). Maybe they’re just plodding along until the next CBA gets ratified to make sure there hard slotting doesn’t get implemented? It pisses me off to no end. It makes so much fiscal sense to drop an extra couple million in the draft to avoid having to pay the Sorianos and AJ Burnett’s of the world because there’s no internal options.
Agreed. Pitt spent more than 3 times the amount. Noticed this last year to a degree, and moreso since GMS passed. It appears that they are squeezing the money out of their budget for kids, but throwing money at lefty middle relief. I hope this isn’t a repeat of what Dan Topping did back in the early 60′s for several years before he sold the team. He didn’t turn the spickett off back then either, but cut back enough to really hurt them by the end of the decade, unless you thought Jerry Kenney and Tony Soliata were future HOF’ers.
I do wonder that if Cash leaves if the new GM will say he wants a certain amount of draft budget.
Great point, Pat.
Budgets on draft and international signings are simply counter-productive.
That said, drafting so low is part of equation. Cashman has not done a good job in amassing draft picks. Hate to say it but boy genius in Boston has run rings around him, trading for pending A and B free agents, offering arbitration and reaping picks.
I think Boston has a budget also, it just appears to be larger then the Yankees. Also why they have spent more some of their picks which were dubbed great by experts have flopped at times.
Yes, Boston seems to be the bizarro-Yankees in this process, but until the Ranuados and Viteks of the world have an impact, whose to say they have it right? It seems to me the real trick in this thing is to identify players that will continue to improve. Anyone can pick today’s 10th best player with the 10th pick, but the point is to get the player that will be better 5, 6 years from now.
Maybe the Boston owners don’t want/need as much money in their pockets as the SteinBros do? Or maybe the cost of the new stadium is soaking up the extra money? One thing is clear, the SteinBros don’t have the need to win everything each year like the old man had. They remind me of the Mara’s…satisfied with making the playoffs and take it from there. That’s an observation, not a criticism. But you can clearly see the difference in the past 2 years.
I don’t think that. They are spending 200 million a year on the big league team.
much of this was committed to before the old man passed. Let’s see where that budget goes over the next few years.
A lot of it yes but George was out of the picture for AJ, Teix and CC. Who all did George sign on this team?
he was out of the active picture, but he was still there to occasionally ask about things…I imagine they didn’t want to upset him, so they continued spending to bulk up the team to placate him….now that he’s gone, they don’t have to do anything they dont want. I think we are getting a better picture of who the owners are this year.
They over spent for both Mo and Jeter this last year and were willing to give Cliff Lee a ton of money.
They’ve maintained the $200 million budget under the younger Steinbrenners, adding Sabathia and company for 2009, and as we know, they were planning to spend big on Cliff Lee. They haven’t shown a willingness to go to a new level, meaning $230-250 million range, and have held in that $200 million range for about seven years now. That line has been around so long that it dates back to when GMS was still running things, so it’s not just Hal and Hank.
It seems that they have a more defined budget under Hal Steinbrenner, but it’s still easily the largest in the game. I do think they should shift three or so million more into the Rule 4 Draft. That’s not the area they should be cutting corners.
There will always be flops in draft. But high picks like Bard and Pedroia have paid off pretty nicely.
So have lower picks like Gardner and Robertson.
Gardner was a third round pick.
With all of those picks and huge budget Boston has, why is their farm system not completely stacked?
spending is one thing it’s also about developing the prospects too.
Brandon. Jacobs.
Low A squad and probable poy candidate in that league. Talent exists in the red sox farm system. Jacobs didn’t come cheap.
Middlebrooks is having a good year too.
I’m not sold on Middlebrooks – his K/BB numbers are…interesting.
Well, three of the top rated guys went in the AGonz deal. Its depleted now, but the Sox draft has really produced some great players in the past decade. Their roster is full of them and there are numerous players they have traded that are doing quite well…Hanley, Masterson to name a few.
This cat Reddick seems pretty promisin as did Kalish last year. Some of the other sure things like Lars anderson and Bowden didn’t workout but that’s the way it goes. Lowrie is decent…hits well, but stinks in the field and is often hurt.
Basically Selig has accomplished what has always been his aim– handcuff the Yankees. With $100 million of Yankee money being redistributed every year, Yanks must now outbid their own profits in open markets for talent.
that stinkin’ Commie……
True, sort of, but the Yankees could also potentially lower their costs by taking a more aggressive approach in the draft so more of their replacements come from within, or they have an even deeper pipeline of talen they can use to trade for other players.
Yet as I write that I don’t really feel all that strongly about it because the Yankees have rebuilt their farm system. They seem to have taken an approach of focusing on arms, instead of position players, probably figuring they can afford to pay for position players, but are more concerned about having access to enough quality arms.
Overall, I think a couple million more in the amateur draft would be money wisely spent, yet overall the team has done a good job the last five season on rebuilding the farm, and that includes both the Rule 4 Draft as well as the International drafts. They may simply beleive money is better spend on the international side.
I mean spending money on the draft doesn’t make the players better. They could have paid some of these guys more headline money and that would have pushed the number up, but they were able to get Bichette and others for not top billing money.
Sure the Pirates spent 17M, but 13 of that was on 2 guys, if the Yanks have a first rounder to get Cole then they’re around 14M (they could have drafted Bell).
That said not sure if they’re not taking the Bell’s of the world because of the signability or because they legitimately like Bichette better
Spending more money does not necessarily mean getting better players. The goal isn’t to spend the most money, it’s to get the best players at the best value. If the Yankees took a Dan Camarena and Rookie Davis totally willing to pay them $1 mill each but negotiated them down to a combined $8/900,000… that’s not a bad thing. If they thought Bichette was worth $2 mill, but signed him for $750k… again, not a bad thing.
Quit your whining.
For the talent that was there when they were picking and the choice they made I give them a D. It seems the org is really holding the line on budgets for both the IFA and the draft for some reason. Choosing to sign players that will depth (which means bench and bullpen if we are lucking) but staying away from the Josh Bells who become available to them.
I think this is the future overspend in the FA market and draft a lot of low return players to play in the system but few, very who will ultimately be above average ML players
Now have you ever seen any of their draft picks play, in person?
then why are we getting seriously outspent in both the draft and IFA? So we can pay AJ, Pedro, Damaso, Rafael, etc.?
What does this comment even mean? The question was whether or not you have seen them play in person. The most hyped and highest paid draft prospects do not always become the best MLB players… especially when coming out of HS. At the very top of the draft, in the top 20 or so… sure. But paying the 20th, 30th, 50th, or 200th best player in the draft like a top 3 pick just because he’s the best player on the board is not necessarily a good policy.
If the Yankees made a mistake not taking Bell, then what do you think about the Padres, Rays and Jays? After the Bichette pick, the Padres and Jays passed on him twice, while the Rays passed on him four times.
I think it’s likely that teams didn’t think he was worth his bonus demands. If he’s a $2M player but asking for $5M, is it still worth drafting him?
I like a few of the guys the Yankees drafted, but overall I am sort of disappointed with this year’s draft class.
I don’t understand why the Yankees just don’t spend any money at the draft, or why the don’t shoot for the brand name talent like Bell or Norris. Not that I have a problem with that, but it would be nice.
stupid question but say they sign 30 guys this year–where do they go? i mean chances are unlikely many prospects get promoted to the big club next year(jesus, manny maybe a AAA guy or two for bullpen)—some will get released, some will be minor league FA, some promoted to higher levels but where do 30 guys slot in in the system? or does the team lose 30 players per year to the aforementioned reasons?
well you have gcl, ny penn and low a mostly. Plus you have extended spring training.
you can cut 30 right now from the lower levels and not miss any of them.
Yeah, they definitely lose 30 players a year, easy. There’s plenty of room for them.
Didn’t the Yankees support a hard slot? I think we know why.
There’s so much noise in this thing that this year’s C can turn into 2014′s A (or F). I like that the Yankees have a plan, and I especially like that it is not based on name recognition. It’s been working overall, so I will keep faith.
True every year.
I don’t focus on this whole “how much do they pay each draft pick/are they cheap” stuff. They always draft players with good upside, we’ll never see most of them in the big leagues, and now it’s a matter of developing them. I love DOTF. The lower level names begin to bleed into each other when they don’t have names like Yeicock or Ravel almost immediately. Without a chart, I’ll have a hard time telling my Matt Durans from my Greg Birds by summer of next year.
Success comes when enough of these guys make it to the upper level. I lik hearing that they focused on up the middle guys last year, corner guys this year and, always, pitching. Regardless of money, that seems smart to me and, hopefully, we’ll be talking about how the team’s well-covered in every area in the upper levels of the minors in a few years.
Combined with the IFA period (I know it’s not over), could this be the lowest amount the Yankes spent on amatuer talent in years?
the IFA market is all year round plus most of the time we don’t see the signing of their prospects.
Consider what they spent in the past few years, and you can get a good idea. Also, I pointed out it isn’t over yet.
last year they spent the 2nd most on IFA of any team. The M’s were #1 and they spent 2 million on 1 player which the Yankees didn’t do.
Exactly. My original question was:
Combined with the IFA period (I know it’s not over), could this be the lowest amount the Yankes spent on amatuer talent in years?
I doubt it. There’s no deadline on the IFA period, they can sign players whenever they want. There’s just a new crop of players every July 2nd.
It certainly looks like they are giving 2008 a run for their money. Has anyone besides Andujar gotten over $500k in the IFA signings?
i gotta say that if was drafted by the Yanks I’d have a hard time saying no to a contract…even if I were a bust it would be a story to tell!
The Yankees have an image problem with money. They spend too much of it and everyone will say their buying championships. The success of the Rays enables the big spenders to say there are other ways of succeeding.
If the Yankees were seen as being a driving force behind over-slot payments it could come back to haunt them through higher luxury taxes or even salary caps.
2011 is another bad year from this perspective for the Yankees. The top 3 payrolls are by a margin the three best teams and only one low payroll team is likely to make the playoff.
There are more overachievers (on winning percentage vs payroll). In AL – mainly Tampa, Toronto and Cleveland and they will all miss the playoffs. Texas is boarderline overachieving but Dallas is not a small market in any way.
In NL Arizona is a great overachiever and they’ll probably make it to the post season. Milwaukie is borderline but we know the Cubs are a basket case so they’ve only really got to compare with St Louis and the pay roll difference isn’t great ($85m vs $105m).
The Soriano signing and apparent willingness of clubs like the Pirates, Indians, natinals, and Mets to select better talent more or less guaranteed the Yanks wouldn’t get a shot at better talent.
At least now its definitive and I expect the organization to adjust. When josh bell and Dillon Howard get snapped up before we get to pick a second time, there’s not much Opp can do.
The thing that disappointed me the most was probably the fact that Yanks only signed 1 of 20 day 3 picks (assuming Maher is signed). I remember being pretty happy about reading the day 3 draft reports and even knowing many of them are long shots to sign, it still seems like they could have signed a few more of the upside guys among those picks.
The pitchers crop is pretty decent and I like Davis quite a bit. A sleeper that’s not really mentioned here is Adam Smith. From what I’ve read, he was an infielder for Texas A&M and didn’t hit a lick and Yanks drafted him as a pitcher. He has some of the best raw arm strength around and hit 97 earlier in the year I think. Good body, big arm strength, very little pitching experience if any, interesting project.
What happens to Stafford now? Does he go back to Texas for his senior year and re-enter the draft next year or does he become some sort of free agent?
Back to school.
I heard his loud, obnoxious, and uber-rich dad is following him there with his bodyguard Lou. He donated a building or something to get accepted.
There is also a small chance he could go to an independent league like Aaron Crow and a few others, but obviously returning to Texas is more likely.
If something is wrong with your arm, the cure is more Augie for what ails you!
It’s nice to have guys who can hit AND play up the middle… but there are hundreds of successful MLB players over the years who never had any chance of playing up the middle.
The big thing that I am disappointed in is that the Yankees were not necessarily to spend big money on talent in the first couple rounds. Even if a team spends 15 million dollars on a draft for it to be valuable all you would need is one player to be worth 4 WAR in the draft which is not a lot if you look at the whole picture.
i think its a bummer we didnt sign Aaron Bummer
They essentially get a C- Grade from me, with only the 3 pitchers that they signed yesterday preventing them from getting an F. (However if you evaluate the Yankees & Orioles vs the Jays, Rays & Sox it should be an F (At best))
Yankees 2011 draft slogan:
Under slot talent, Over slot bonus. Yay!
When are you going to get half a clue and realize that Baseball America’s pre-draft rankings are not the end-all of talent evaluation? Seriously, it’s getting really old. Look back at their historical rankings and let me know how they did. Please. You are ignorantly making a fool of yourself.
Ted, I’ve been following the draft in depth since ’98. There’s a direct correlation between the consensus top talents and productive players, especially the top 50 or so players. Publications like BA consistently identify the top talents that eventually go in first round. The only ones that slide are due to sign-ability concerns.
The reality of the situation is that there’s a MONTEROUS gap between the talent the Yanks brought in in this year’s draft and the talent the rest of the AL east did. Futhermore the yankees haven’t signed any top International talent this year or last (de Paula and Paniagua not withstanding. Still not done deals btw).
If that doesn’t bother you fine. But the only ones making a fool of themselves are the Yankees.
You may not notice it this year or next but in 3 or 4 years the Yanks will feel the effects of this and last year’s poor hauls. Sort of like when they had poor farm systems in the mid ’00′s due to bad drafts in the early part of the decade.
For me, the Yankees are banking on their abilities to develop players – that so much is clear w/ their emphasis on unknown but raw and toolsy high school talent. Unfortunately there’s little information on the internet about their coaching techniques, facilities and support network. Frankly, if Slade Heathcott could continue a drinking problem for the entirety of 2010 undetected, then I wouldn’t place too much confidence on the Yankees’ support network.
Their draft philosophy however might be a product of arrogance (to develop unknown players), need (to avoid sanction from MLB), or apathy towards the farm system RELATIVE to other teams. Bonuses are rising, and no one really knows what Selig thinks about it. Its unlikely that he doesn’t think much of it, since he’s allowed ML contracts to rise so much.
A lot of fans’ apprehension is justified though – the Yankees with the largest revenue stream in the game, and the largest ML payroll, refuses to follow the trend of SMALLER market teams like Tampa, Seattle, Toronto etc, and pick up the signability players which the draft market have tabbed as the most talented of a particular draft class. The Yankees are seemingly under the impression that the draft market has asymmetric information – which could not be further from the truth today. Its 2011, not 1991. Technology has made drafting a potentially more even exercise, where information abouts players can be accurately obtained and disseminated. True, bonuses are rising, but this appears to be a bubble unlikely to burst anytime soon. The Yankees should get in on it.
Greg Bird Highlights:
http://www.zoodig.me/gregbird/.....ng/?id=446
I wonder if, all things considered, Cole did make the right decision.
Will he get the same level of coaching with Pittsburgh as he would have with the Yankees?
Will they baby his arm as much as the Yankees would have since the Yankees generally intend to resign their best pitchers whereas I suspect Pittsburgh is just trying to get as much from them as they can until they become free agents? (Mark Prior, of course, with the Cubs being an extreme example)
I would think that the net present value of the likely higher compensation he would get over his career had had signed with the Yankees might be much greater than the extra $4 million he got from the Pirates.
And one more thing… When was the last time the Pirates developed a quality starting pitcher with a long, successful career?
I think you’re putting too much emphasis on the organization in developing a player. A whole lot of the responsibility is on the player himself. Cole is a stud college arm who likely isn’t going to be long for the minors. There are better coaches and worse coaches, but there is generally a whole lot of baseball knowledge out there that a motivated and talented player can access in any organization.
For superificially knowledgable fans like you and I, lets not undervalue organisational philosophies, culture, and coaching talent. Organisations like Atlanta, Oakland, Anaheim, and Toronto have been a conveyor belt for good arms, and have been for years.
The Pirates have been drafting pitching prospects at the top of the first round for a long time(Burnett at #19, Bullington at #1, Malholm at # 8, Lincoln at #4) and they haven’t produced much at the big leagues compared to those other organisations.
Hell, Atlanta signed Brandon Beachy as an undrafted free agent! http://www.baseball-reference......br01.shtml
Very bummed by the scarcity of Day 3 signings. Really wanted more of the H.S. arms signed, wanted college kids Stafford &/or Thompson, & wanted at least one of Rathjen &/or O’Neal because the two of them are talented outfielders w/huge upside. I like the pitching we did sign but we had a chance to land more talent & we penny-pinched them or just basically ignored them. I feel like the entire d3 draft was a tease.
Yeah, yeah, everyone’s excited about Banuelos & Betances & Warren, etc., but all of them could just as easily be busts as become quality major league starting pitchers. I want more better starting pitching throughout the org. & it doesn’t seem like there’s a great sense of urgency to make it happen. I mean for just a little more dough the worst that could have happened w/signing a few more of the upside H.S. arms is that we developed too much quality starting pitching. I’ll take that problem every day. Obviously no one knows how it will all turn out a few years down the line, but for the moment, I’m very disappointed!