Food For Thought: World Series WPA Leaders

August 12, 2011 by Mike Axisa 15 Comments

Beyond The Box Score ran a great post today looking at the career leaders in Win Probability Added (WPA) in World Series play. The graphic up top (which you can click for a larger view) is the pitcher leaderboard, and you can click through the link to see the position players. At 2.40 WPA, Mariano Rivera has helped improved his team’s chances of winning in the Fall Classic more than any other player in the modern era (pitcher or hitter), dating back to Red Ruffing in the 30’s and 40’s. That 2.40 WPA came in only 36.1 career World Series innings too. For some perspective, Rivera had a 2.24 WPA in 60 IP last season. That’s how big he’s been in the postseason.

Mike Stanton (the lefty reliever, not the Marlins’ masher) is the only other recent pitcher to crack the top 12 leaderboard (1.59 WPA), Yankees or otherwise. He just barely made it too. Hideki Matsui (1.18 WPA) is the only recent player in the position players top 12, tied with Tim McCarver of all people. Godzilla only has 41 career plate appearances in the World Series, so he sure did a good job of making his contributions count. That list features the greatest Yankees of all-time basically, guys like Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, Reggie Jackson … all those guys make an appearance. Check out the post for more info, it’s pretty neat stuff.

IRF

No. Sorry. This is all wrong. Mariano Rivera really isn’t good. He’s blown saves in the post season, and he the Yankees haven’t won the WS every year since he became closer.
- Artie DeVanzo
  
  yeah i would take Armando Benitez any day over this Rivera character
- Joe
  
  What the he’ll are you talking about! Foolish! I could go on and explain why you’re brain dead, but I’ll let MR”s stats do the talking.
  - Sayid J.
    
    Sarcasm meter adjustments?
Justin

I would be insulted to be tied with Tim McCarver for anything.
- http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa
  
  Bank account size?
UncleArgyle

At 2.40 WPA, Mariano Rivera has helped improved his team’s chances of winning in the Fall Classic more than any other player in the modern era (pitcher or hitter), dating back to Red Ruffing in the 30?s and 40?s. That 2.40 WPA came in only 36.1 career World Series innings too. For some perspective, Rivera had a 2.24 WPA in 60 IP last season. That’s how big he’s been in the postseason.

You sure about that? ESPN’s David Schoenfield had this to say yesterday on Twitter:

dschoenfield David Schoenfield
Of course Mo’s postseason numbers are great. Yankees won most of the series in sweeps or 4-1 though. Wasn’t a difference-maker, except ’96.

So who’s right? The research company, or the ESPN talking head who’s too lazy at this point in his career to do research?
- Donna L
  
  I guess Schoenfield didn’t watch the 2003 ALCS.
  
  And didn’t Mo win the World Series MVP in 1999 against the Braves? Yes, it was a sweep, but maybe he had something to do with that?
  - Owen Two
    
    Yes, it was a sweep, but maybe he had something to do with that?
    
    Good point. Just because a Series is lop-sided doesn’t mean all the games were blowouts.
- http://www.youcantpredictbaseball.com bexarama
  
  Schoenfield was blatantly obviously trolling about Mariano yesterday. Like, laughably obviously.
  
  Do the Yankees probably win in like 1998 without Mariano? There’s no way to tell for sure, but it’s likely. But he’s been tremendous in the postseason/World Series, even as “just” a relief pitcher.
  - UncleArgyle
    
    Yeah, I thought Schoenfield was really out of line yesterday. He gets paid to talk intelligently about baseball, not to say stupid shit to piss people off.
    - CP
      
      Technically, he gets paid to generate page-views or readers or viewers (depending on the medium).
Heisenberg

No Whitey Ford? Sad face.
- Nigel Incubator-Jones
  
  Whitey Ford, with 1.15 WPA is tied for 26th with none other than Roger Clemens.
CP

Mo’s biggest positive WPA in the World Series:
1. 2000 WS Game 4: +.360
2. 1999 WS Game 3: +.305
3. 2001 WS Game 3: +.303

Mo’s biggest negative WPA in the World Series:
1. 2001 WS Game 7: -.625
2. That’s his only negative WPA appearance in the World Series

Interestingly, his biggest playoff WPA was the 1995 ALDS game 2 at +.471 (second was 2003 ALCS game 7).