Archive for August, 2011
Game 128: Delayed by Rain
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(Photo Credit: Flickr user notladj via Creative Commons license)
Whoo-pee. The game isn’t going to start on time, because it’s raining. Which it will do all weekend. Also, apparently the Yankees talked to the Orioles about playing a doubleheader tomorrow, to get a bit ahead of the rain. The O’s reportedly refused. I get why they wouldn’t want to help the Yanks, but why not be a bit more accommodating when there is a known weather issue in the area? I guess you can be a dick when the games are meaningless to you.
(May the Orioles have many more meaningless games in their future.)
In good news, A-Rod is tentatively in the lineup, though he has to get through a pre-game workout. I haven’t seen anything that suggests he’s been removed, so it looks like he’ll actually play today.
Lineup:
1. Derek Jeter, DH
2. Curtis Granderson, CF
3. Mark Teixeira, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Robinson Cano, 2B
6. Nick Swisher, RF
7. Russell Martin, C
8. Eduardo Nunez, SS
9. Brett Gardner, LF
And on the mound, number sixty-five, Phil Hughes.
Every start a big one for Hughes
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(Photo Credit: Flickr user Anna Moony via Creative Commons license)
In about 90 minutes Phil Hughes will deliver his first pitch of the afternoon to the A’s. It will be an important pitch; so will every pitch he throws for the rest of the season. Given the current state of the rotation, the Yankees absolutely need Hughes to step up down the stretch and play a prominent role in the playoff rotation.
As Ben wrote yesterday, Bartolo Colon has faded of late. He hasn’t been bad, per se, but he hasn’t been the model of efficiency that we saw from April through June. Who knows how much he has left in the tank at this point. Maybe the Yankees can get him some rest in the next month and have him ready again for the playoffs, but that’s no guarantee. Knowing what we do about his age and history, it’s tough to pencil him in at this point for a playoff rotation spot.
Then there’s A.J. Burnett, who needs no further description. He’ll have to pitch impeccable ball in the next month in order to even sniff the playoff rotation. The Yankees appear to be in the same position as last year, where they simply can’t afford to start him in the postseason unless absolutely necessary. If, in fact, they can’t start Colon, that would necessarily move Burnett up in the pecking order. This is why Hughes is so important.
Since his return from the DL Hughes has been generally effective, though not entirely convincing. He’s had one serious clunker, which coincidentally came against the A’s at home. He also looked shaky in his next start against Seattle, though due to their horrible offense he escaped relatively unharmed. All told he’s produced a 3.70 ERA in 41.1 innings since his July 6th return. The only issue is that in that time he has a 25:14 K/BB ratio, which is pretty terrible. The walks are OK, but the strikeouts are way down from the level we’ve come to expect from Hughes.
Things have gotten a bit better in August. Hughes has started three games and has thrown 19.2 innings, allowing just three runs while striking out 12 and walking four. Again, the strikeouts are a bit low, 5.49 per nine, though he’s kept his walk rate low enough to help mask that. He’s also allowed only two homers. This is important for Hughes, because he’s still recovering from his early season — I’m not even sure what to call it. But he had just a short rehab stint, and really had to spend his July starts getting back into shape. It doesn’t excuse his poor performances, but it does put them into better perspective.
Today he needs to build on what he’s been doing and continue to progress towards being the pitcher he was in the first half of 2010. It’s crucial for the Yankees now, as they need a few healthy and effective pitchers to help mask the foibles of Colon and the ineffectiveness of Burnett. But more importantly, they need Hughes to work his way into the playoff rotation. They need four men for that, and right now he’s on the brink. Making progress in his next few starts, which will include missing more bats, is crucial to the Yankees chances when they reach the postseason.
This brings up the all-important question: what will it take for the Yankees to fully trust Hughes? Clearly the results have been there lately, so that provides one level of assurance. But what else will it take? Will they be satisfied if he continues to produce results without missing bats? How many bad starts can he afford before they lose confidence? What will it take for him to solidify a spot in the postseason rotation? These are all big questions that he will have to answer down the stretch. It all starts today at 1 p.m.*
*Weather permitting.
Looking ahead to September call-ups
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Coke was a September call-up that won himself a job for the following year. (AP)
It’s kinda hard to believe that it’s already the last full week of August, but it is and the season is nearly at its end. September is right around the corner, meaning expanded rosters and non-stop talk about how the final month of the season is played with different rules than the first five. I really don’t have a problem with it, it gives non-contenders a chance to see what they have in the farm system and contenders more help for the stretch drive. As long as every team can do it, it’s fair in by book.
Based on what we’ve seen the last few years, the Yankees’ first wave of call-ups (the guys that come up right on the first) will be the bare essentials. Last year the Yanks recalled a pitcher (Jon Albaladejo), an outfielder (Greg Golson), and a catcher (Chad Moeller) on the 1st, though they also welcomed Lance Berkman back from the disabled list. Two years ago they summoned three arms (Mark Melancon, Mike Dunn, Edwar Ramirez), an infielder (Ramiro Pena), and a catcher (Frankie Cervelli). More pieces came later in the month, but that was it on the first day rosters expanded.
The guys that come up on September 1st are likely to be the guys we’ve seen already this season, meaning Lance Pendleton and Chris Dickerson. Brian Cashman‘s recent comments indicate that Raul Valdes and Aaron Laffey will also be called up, so that’s three arms right there. The fourth will be Hector Noesi, who I assume will go down for Freddy Garcia prior to Saturday’s doubleheader with the Orioles. Ramiro Pena may or may not be ready to return from his appendectomy, but if he’s not, then Brandon Laird is your extra infielder. Barring some funny business with the recently DFA’ed Gus Molina, Jesus Montero will be up as the third catcher as well. I’m guessing Justin Maxwell will be the 40-man roster casualty to accommodate Montero.
Triple-A Scranton is pretty much out of the playoff race barring a miracle comeback, and their season ends on September 5th. No postseason means more call-ups within the first week of the month, so expect to see Kevin Whelan and Greg Golson return. Steve Garrison is another possibility if Double-A Trenton fails to make the playoffs (which is very possible), though I think four lefties might be overkill. The wildcard is Andrew Brackman. He’s been awful this year but did get a call-up last year even though he didn’t pitch. I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Pena is going to return at some point, so all told that’s two infielders, two outfielders, a third catcher, and a bunch of arms. All except Montero are already on 40-man roster, so the moves are a piece of cake. The non-40-man guys are much more interesting though.
The most notable one (to me) is George Kontos, who’s having huge, strikeout heavy year in Triple-A, his first as a full-time reliever. Yeah, he’s made some spot starts and is pretty stretched out (good for 50-60 pitches or so at the moment), but then again all Triple-A arms are. Kontos will need to be added to the 40-man after the season to avoid exposure to the Rule 5 Draft, and he’s a definite add at this point. The Yankees got a little lucky when the Padres returned him last year, but I doubt they’ll roll the dice again. I have no idea what the 40-man roster move would be (Garrison? maybe even Pants Lendleton?), but I say give the kid a promotion and an inning or two next month, just to see what’s up.
The other Rule 5 guys are Austin Romine, David Phelps, and D.J. Mitchell, all of whom are locks to be added to the 40-man after the season. I don’t think any will be called up in September though, just because there aren’t that many innings to go around and those guys are better off heading to Instructional League. Plus the 40-man roster crunch will be very tight if Maxwell and Garrison are cut lose. Phelps is a prime candidate for the Arizona Fall League after his shoulder problem as well. Although they’re throwing bullpens down in Tampa, I would be stunned if either Damaso Marte or Pedro Feliciano returned next month.
So all told, I see 10-11 players being added to the roster at various points next month. The first wave of guys figures to be Laffey, Valdes, Pendleton, Montero, Laird, and Dickerson. Once the Triple-A season wraps up, I figure Golson and Whelan will come back to town, and Pena will rejoin whenever he’s healthy. Kontos is another late add, and who knows with Brackman. Like I said, I could see it either way. The important thing to remember is that these guys aren’t being brought up to put the Yankees over the top in the division race or anything, they’re just there to take the load off the regulars and keep the pitching staff fresh by soaking up garbage innings. September will be exciting because we’ll get to see some notable minor leaguers (Montero!), but the call-ups are always more exciting in our heads than in reality.
DotF: Tampa wins two to stay in the playoff hunt
Posted by: | CommentsSome quick notes: Raul Valdes was sent to the Thunder, and Tampa two wins today brought them within one game of Dunedin. Thanks again to mbonzo for the assist.
Triple-A Scranton (7-1 win over Rochester)
Chris Dickerson, LF: 2 for 4, 1 RBI, 1 R, 1 SB
Kevin Russo, DH, Jordan Parraz, RF: 1 for 3 – Both with two walks and a run scored.
Mike Lamb, 1B, Raymond Kruml, CF, Doug Bernier, C: 1 for 4 – Lamb doubled and walked, while Kruml only walked once. Bernier K’d twice.
Brandon Laird, 3B: 1 for 5, 1K
Luis Nunez, 2B: 0 for 4 – The only player to go hitless.
Gustavo Molina, C: 3 for 4 – Doubled and homered in his first game since August 13th.
David Phelps, RHP: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K’s, 1 HR, 7-7 GO/FO – 57 of his 83 pitches were strikes. Nice rebound from two terrible starts since coming back from his shoulder injury.
George Kontos, RHP: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K’s – 21 of his 27 pitches were strikes. He’s given up 8 ER in his last 27.2 IP. (2.60 ERA)
Game 127: No A-Rod again, again
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankee third baseman, who made a cameo appearance on Sunday, is again out of the lineup with a sore thumb. He says it’s starting to feel better, but he won’t be taking the field today. His fleeting 0-fer over the weekend seems like just a dream. Perhaps he’ll return tomorrow and spare us more of Eduardo Nuñez’s helmet flying off.
Meanwhile, it’s CC day. The Yankee ace is going for his 18th win, but August has not been the kindest month. He’s 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA this month and has allowed 39 hits over his last 29 innings. Hopefully, the A’s are the cure what ails him. Backing him up will be:
Brett Gardner LF
Derek Jeter SS
Curtis Granderson CF
Mark Teixeira 1B
Robinson Cano 2B
Nick Swisher RF
Jorge Posada DH
Eduardo Nunez 3B
Francisco Cervelli C
Yankees put a waiver claim on Carlos Peña
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees have claimed Carlos Peña on waivers from the Cubs, according to Jon Heyman. Peña, working on a one-year, $10-million, is hitting .223/.342/.450 with 23 home runs and a .343 wOBA. Against righties, however, he has an .865 OPS and a .374 wOBA and would give the Yankees a power bat to platoon with Andruw Jones at DH and an option to spell Mark Teixeira at first base. Peña, who provides more power and defensive versatility, than Jorge Posada would be an intriguing waiver pickup for the Yanks, but odds are slim that the Cubs simply let him go or work out a deal with the Yanks. Ken Rosenthal says a a deal is unlikely and that the Cubs are “reluctant to make a move.” Chicago has until 1 p.m. on Friday to make a decision, and we’ll have more as this story develops.
Where have you gone, Bartolo Colon?
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(AP Photo/Nick Wass)
When Joe Girardi yanked Bartolo Colon from last night’s game, he did so shortly after the right-hander had racked up inning 130 for the season. Somehow, the Yanks’ big gamble has paid off. Colon, making just $900,000 this year, has made 20 starts for the Yanks, has won eight games and was a stud throughout May and into June. The wheels though might be coming loose.
Colon’s outing last night was one I’d characterize as good enough. Usually, allowing three runs to another team over six innings would be enough to allow the Yanks’ offense to take over. Colon threw a few bad sliders to Brandon Allen and Eric Sogard, but before the 7th, he had been effective even if not efficient. His final line — 6.1 IP, 8 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 5 K — isn’t pretty, particularly against the A’s, but that’s also due to Boone Logan‘s failures.
For Colon, though, his outing was his second straight in which he struggled, and since coming off the disabled list with a hamstring injury, he hasn’t been nearly as good as he once was. Before he hurt himself covering first, he appeared in 13 games and made 10 starts, eight of which were quality starts. In 78.1 innings, he had a 3.10 ERA/3.44 FIP and allowed 66 hits, 18 walks and nine home runs while striking out 72. Opponents hit .227/.272/.375 with a .268 BABIP, and he averaged just over 14 pitches per inning.
His last ten starts have not been nearly as effective. Since his return, he sports a 4.61 ERA/4.48 FIP in 52.2 innings and has allowed 65 hits and eight home runs while walking 14 and striking out just 40. Just four of his ten outings have been quality starts. Opponents have hit .302/.352/.507 off of him with a .339 BABIP, and he is now averaging over 17 pitches per inning.
Clearly, something has changed for Big Bart since his early season success. Colon, who hasn’t reached this lofty level of innings since 2005 and threw over the winter as well, denies being tired, but his approach has changed. Prior to his injury, 86 percent of his pitches were fastballs. Of those, 48 percent were four-seamers and 38 percent were two-seamers. Since his return, 55.7 percent of pitches were four-seamers while just 24 percent were two-seamers. Sliders and change-ups now account for over 20 percent of his pitch selection.
To make matters worse, his pitches haven’t been moving as much. His fastballs and sliders have seen less vertical movement over the past ten starts, and his slider has seen more horizontal movement than before. It has become a bit flatter, and as Allen’s monster shot showed last night, Major League hitters have no problems with flat, fat 83 mph sliders. That ball reached the upper deck above right field.
Today, Joe Girardi expressed his concern about Colon’s disappearing two-seamer. The skipper said to Jack Curry that the two-seam fastball has “been a very important pitch for him and we need to get it going.” That much, at least, is obvious.
In an ideal world, the Yankees would figure out a way to give Colon some extended rest over the next few weeks because they will need him at his best for the playoffs. If A.J. Burnett were pitching even adequately, the club could afford to tinker with the rotation, but unless they’re willing to give Hector Noesi or Adam Warren a spot start or two, Colon will get the ball every few days. Even as it gets late in the season, it’s too early, meanwhile, to say that the wheels have come off completely for Colon, but he’s not the pitcher — both stuff- and results-wise — that he was earlier this year.
Is it time for the Yanks to extend Cano’s contract?
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(AP Photo/Gail Burton)
Over the last two, really three years, Robinson Cano has come into his own as not just one of the best players on the Yankees, but one of the very best players in all of baseball. He was a well-above-average contributor on a World Championship team in 2009, a legitimate MVP candidate in 2010, and although this year got off to kind of a slow start, Cano has been producing at his MVP-caliber pace for months now. Despite all the hoopla surrounding (and money being paid to) Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, it’s Cano and Curtis Granderson that drive the Yankees’ offensively.
A few years ago the Yankees broke their own rule of not negotiating with personnel (that’s everyone, including players, coaches, front office staff, etc.) until their contracts were expired to sign Robinson to a long-term deal. The team gave their second baseman a four-year contract worth at least $30MM right before Spring Training in 2008, even though he was still four seasons away from qualifying for free ageny. This is the last guaranteed year of that contract, and it’s paying Cano $10M. The Yankees hold club options for both 2012 ($14M) and 2013 ($15M), and those are locks to be picked up, no doubt about it. That’ll take Robbie through his age-30 season, and what happens after that is a great big mystery.
I conducted an informal Twitter poll on Saturday and Sunday, asking people what they think Cano could get on the free agent market right now. I got about two dozen responses, and the average was 7.13 years and $141.2M. That’s almost exactly Carl Crawford money, and it sounds reasonable to me. Assuming he produces like he has over the last three years for the next two years, Robbie will be looking at a deal of that size (adjusted for inflation) when he hits the open market after 2013. That’s why I think the Yankees need to break their own rule again and sign Cano to another long-term contract this offseason.
(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
The benefits for the team are pretty obvious. They would be locking up one of their cornerstone (and homegrown!) players through his peak years, perhaps saving a little cash down the road, and avoiding the fiasco of the free agent market in two years. They would also be assuming a ton of risk, because they’d still have to pay Cano should he suffer a serious injury or just rapidly decline in his early-30′s like middle infielders are known to do from time to time. Robinson would be securing himself some serious financial security, we’re talking generational wealth. Money for his kids and his kids’ kids and his kids’ kids’ kids. He would be giving up his maximum earning potential though, because nothing raises the price like a bidding war on the open market.
In a perfect world, I think the contract would cover six years. The Yankees could guarantee his 2012 and 2013 options, then tack another four years on top of that. That would take Cano through his age 33 season, giving him enough time to land one more big contract, assuming all goes well. The money would certainly be substantial, something like $14M and $15M in the two option years, then $19M, $20M, $21M, and $22M in the four additional years. That’s six years and $111M right there, then throw in a signing bonus and a buyout of a seventh year option, and you’re talking $120M guaranteed. Definitely less than what he’d probably get on the open market after 2013, but also a freaking ton of money.
Now, there’s a significant hurdle that has to be cleared here. Cano hired Scott Boras this past offseason, and Boras almost always takes his high-profile clients onto the market. The one glaring exception is Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies (late add: Jered Weaver too), who landed himself a seven-year contract worth at least $80M after just one full season as a big leaguer. Pretty sweet deal. In an age where above-average middle infielders are getting locked up before they ever hit free agency, there’s little doubt in my mind that Boras is salivating over the prospect of having an in-his-prime middle infielder on the free agent market.
The Jose Reyes contract this offseason will give us a pretty good idea of what’s in store for Cano on the open market, but I don’t think the Yankees should wait that long. They’d be wise to at least make an attempt to sign him to a contract extension this coming offseason, potentially buying out his prime years for a (ever so slight) discount without getting locked into his mid-to-late-30′s at huge bucks. It’s certainly risky, but sometimes you have to go out on a limb for special players, and Robbie qualifies in my book.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
