Fan Confidence Poll: September 12th, 2011

Offense comes back to life in win over Halos
Series Preview: Seattle Mariners

Record Last Week: 3-4 (31 RS, 36 RA)
Season Record:
88-57 (785 RS, 585 RA, 93-52 pythag. record), 3.5 games up in AL East, 7.0 up for wildcard
Opponents This Week:
@ Mariners (three games, Mon. to Weds.), Thurs. OFF, @ Blue Jays (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
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Offense comes back to life in win over Halos
Series Preview: Seattle Mariners
  • LarryM.,Fl.

    I am still 8+. This bump in the road has not lessen my confidence in the team. The injuries to Martin and Swisher should get better by playoff time. As far as Arod is concern ligament sprains and damages take longer than expected. Hopefully he can play through it.

    The pitching staff is consistent if not lights out. We’ll just have to hit the blank out of the baseball.

    Take one game at a time and the magic number will be zero.

  • MattG

    While the Yankees’ have played like crap, their pile has not steamed with the same ferocity as that of the Red Sox. The Yankees’ poor play has been a fatigue and minor injury induced blip. The Red Sox are grazing at the trough of doom.

  • MannyGeee

    Still at about an 8. The injuries are a little nerve racking. BUt apparantly the Montero hype machine was not all hype, so that happened.

  • Paul Proteus

    I’ve been at a 9 all year and there’s no reason to change now. These games mean very little and it’s better the offense struggles now than next month. Plus we’re missing 3 starters in our lineup. Jesus is loose. Sox are free falling. No reason not to be at a 9.

  • Bob Stone

    Still 9. Not a great week but the Yankees still gained a game on the BoSox.

  • Andy In Sunny Daytona

    The Yankees just signed Alvaro Noriega. How can you not be at a 10?

    • http://www.twitter.com/bgeary8 bgeary

      I enjoyed that in the article Gary Sanchez was called a “can’t miss prospect”.

    • The Big City of Dreams

      Yankees cornering the market on catchers.

      • MattG

        I like the strategy. If the Yankees can employ every catcher, all their opponents are going to have a lot of passed balls.

        • http://RAB Nuke LaDoosh

          I think Casey Stengel said something like that once.

    • Andy In Sunny Daytona

      Also, I would like to give myself a shout out for succesfully creating a hyperlink.

      I’m all growed up, Ma. I’m all growed up.

      • jsbrendog

        so proud

      • MannyGeee

        If my arm could reach all the way to Sunny Daytona, I would totally tussle your hair and give you an ‘Attaboy”, Andy.

        • Bob Stone

          I would do the same.

  • Jorge

    8 Short-term + 10 Long-term /2 = 9.

    Four game losing streaks are what they are. Still in first. Still in the driver’s seat. The young guys they’re couting on are not looking overmatched thus far. Loved the couple of innings from Romine yesterday. No reason to do anything but smile.

    • MattG

      I saw Romine plenty, from real close up, in Trenton, and I have no idea where the great defensive reputation comes from. Having followed Cervelli through Trenton, the contrast was unmistakeable. Austin hasn’t any of Frankie’s athleticism, he doesn’t get left, right, or down well on anything in the dirt, and is very shaky on foul pops. He does throw wonderfully.

      I am far from a scout, but when you are sitting in section 12, these things are easy to see.

      • Ed

        I haven’t seen any stats in about 2 years, but back then, Romine was worse than Montero with passed balls and wild pitches. Both had a lot of each, but Romine had a decent amount more.

        Back then I had the impression that both sucked defensively, but scouts saw a lot more room for improvement in Romine due to body type.

        Also wondered if some of it was the old standby of a catcher’s defensive reputation is inversely proportional to his offensive reputation. Montero had the bat, so Romine must have the glove.

        • Ted Nelson

          A lot of Romine’s reputation is due to his strong arm. His defense is questioned by people, though, notably Keith Law.

          Cs are scarce right now, so I don’t think Romine has to do much to be a starting C. You don’t have to hold him up to HOF standards or anything. To quickly summarize the overall performance at C in MLB right now, Kurt Suzuki has been even defensively, negative on the bases, and has a wOBA of .304… and he’s already at 2.1 fWAR on the season. Romine doesn’t have to do much to be a starting C in MLB, and a pulse should get him a job as a back-up for at least a few years.

          C defense is also harder to measure than just PBs and CS%… working with a pitching staff is something I haven’t personally heard of someone trying to quantify (maybe within orgs they do). Framing pitches people do try to quantify, but it’s not very mainstream. With CS% you have to consider the pitcher as much as or maybe more than the C, and the IF can also play a role on catching the ball and being in position to apply the tag.

          • MattG

            The only standard to which I am comparing him is Frankie C. Romine’s arm seems a tick stronger and way more accurate, but Cervelli had him on everything else (including age, as Romine was at the same level two years earlier, so that’s two years he has to improve).

            One thing that was fun to watch was Cervelli on bunts. Being that there is the perpetual need for catching in the major leagues, and the Yankees have no less than three of them, plus Romine, ready for the major leagues, I suspect Cervelli to be a commodity this off-season (so long as he still knows the difference between two fingers and three). I’ll be sad to see him go.

            • Ted Nelson

              I commented on Ed’s post, not yours.

              You are entitled to whatever opinion you have on Cervelli and Romine. The only point I would make is that differences in C defense tend to be very subtle, and you expressly say you are not a scout… how you can be so sure based on your objective memory that Romine is worse at framing pitches and other subtleties… I’m not sure. How you have any idea how either handles a pitching staff… I have no idea.

              I have no idea whether Cervelli or Romine is a better defensive catcher, and I never once expressed an opinion on the subject.

          • toad

            C defense is also harder to measure than just PBs and CS%

            Especially since CS% is close to meaningless, as it fails to take deterrence into account. It’s far from impossible for a very good catcher to have lower CS% than a worse catcher, because the guy with the weaker arm will have many more attempts.

  • Bavarian Yankee

    8. Again.

  • theyankeewarrior

    8. Confident as ever… just sick of the nagging injuries.

    Wish our $300M third basemen could finish a game or two without needing a week (or 3 months) off in between.

    Can someone help me understand the Yankee’s thinking with their rotation? CC seems like he’s not lined up correctly for ALDS Game 1 (September 30th). In order for him to be linen up correctly, he would need to start against the Sox on the 25th.

    That seems almost impossible right now unless they give him like 9 days off.

    Resting our studs and lining the rotation up should be #1 and #1a on the agenda right now.

    • Jorge

      I think a lot can happen rotation-wise before 9/30. Seems like a problem for which there’d be a ton of remedies.

      The team knew the risks with Alex’s contract.

      Can’t disagree with the rest of what you’re saying.

      • MannyGeee

        NO, I am not sure they did.

        I am of the belief that if Cashman on was left his own accord to do his job in 2007 without FO/Ownership intervention, the A-Rod contract would have looked quite different (if at all)…

    • Ted Nelson

      In the same comment you both complain that the Yankees aren’t resting their “studs” and that A-Rod is resting…

      • CS Yankee

        Healing>>>>>>>>playing to secure postseason>>>>>resting a day or two>>>>playing most games>>>>Posada play time

      • theyankeewarrior

        He is not resting. He is injured. “Resting” means you’re healthy, yet you still get 1-2 days off each week to keep your body fresh.

        Alex Rodriguez hasn’t been a consistent contributor to the team since May.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          Except for when he hit .326/.416/.570 in 24 June games.

          • theyankeewarrior

            You’re right. Since June.

            So he’s only been out for July, August and September.

            • Sayid J.

              Lol yea… “Oh my! A-Rod was healthy in June?! Awesome!!”

              The point still stands. Whether he’s been hurt for 2.5 months or 2.5 months, he still hasn’t been contributing.

              • Sayid J.

                2.5 or 3.5, obviously. My bad.

              • Ted Nelson

                He’s contributed the 4th most fWAR among MLB 3B… so I’m not sure how a point that he’s not contributing this season stands.

  • YanksFan

    My usual 9.

    Even when they lose 4 games 3 of them were by a run w/ 1/3 of the line-up out. Great to see Monero hitting & an unexpected Romine cameo. Now if Brackman can come into a game and K the side…

  • http://RAB Nuke LaDoosh

    Staying at 8 for balance of 2011. See it going up to 9 beyond this year, but not yet.

  • http://bloodfarm.tumblr.com mattdamonwayans

    The past few games have been ugly, however, the Yankees have three games against the punchless Seattle and a day off this week. Jesus Montero is getting playing time and showing that he is ready to be a part of the lineup. Injuries are taking their toll, however, none of them seem particularly “season changing,” like Beckett’s for instance. The Yankees have put a lot of space between themselves and the pack this season, it is difficult to imagine them somehow falling out completely.

    • http://bloodfarm.tumblr.com mattdamonwayans

      Also: props to the pack of right-handers going to Arizona. I really hope to see those guys break into the big league pen in years to come.

    • Jorge

      I think worries about them falling out of contention are the creation of “sky is falling” fifth-inning game thread fodder.

      This isn’t Flushing, Queens, circa a few years ago.

    • Ted Nelson

      Would have been nice to put the Angels away, but by my calculations if the Yankees go 5-12 over their last 17 games (a W% under 30) the Rays would need to go 12-5 (W% over 70) and the Angels 13-3 (W% over 80) to tie them with a 93-69 record.

  • MannyGeee

    also, this:

    http://nomaas.org/blog/wp-cont.....eeting.jpg

    I still love their photoshops, just dont bother reading the comments.

    • Bob Stone

      Great photo!

  • steve s

    I am at a 9 but those who take the position that Yanks are just playing out the string, no worries we most likely win the division and no way we fall out of the playoffs, need to consider the following:

    1) It’s pretty unlikely that the Yanks will have clinched a playoff spot by the time the last stretch of 10 games against Tampa and Bos start so those games will not be pressure free.

    2) Even if the Yanks clinch a playoff berth early on in the 10 game stretch they have an enormous opportunity to influence whether Tampa or Bos make the wildcard; maybe it’s a pick your poison kind of deal but if Yanks have a strong preference to potentially play one or the other in the AL Championship round then how they approach those last 10 games should reflect that preference.

    3) On the other hand nothing would bring me more joy than to see the Yanks clinch and then rollover for the Rays to ensure maximum Red Sox pain.

    • Bob Stone

      I agree completely.

      Many fans are overlooking the scheduled Yankee opponents over the next two weeks.

      The Rays will be motivated, especially given the sweep over the RoSox this weekend. They have their fate in their own hands with 7 games against the BoSox and 3 games against the Yankees.

      • Ted Nelson

        I don’t think anyone is overlooking who their opponents are. I think people just realize how unlikely it is that the Yankees miss the playoffs.

        I think you are overlooking how hard it would be to miss the playoffs. It’s possible, sure. Would take a total collapse by the Yankees combined with a solid finish from Boston, and a scorching hot finish from Tampa and/or Angels. Which is especially hard to imagine with the Rays and Sox playing 4 more games.

        • Bob Stone

          That’s definitely in play.

        • Bob Stone

          Although I do remember (unfortunately I cannot forget – I would like to) that the Yankees were up 3-0 in the 2004 ALCS and clobbered the Bosox 19-8 in game three and then became the ONLY team in baseball history ever to lose a seven game series after leading the series 3-0.

          On the plus side of the ledger, let us not forget that the Yankees were 14 games out of first place behind the Red Sox in 1978 and we all loved the outcome that season.

          Anything can happen in baseball. It is a game of streaks. The matchups between the BoSox, Rays and Yankees are set up to create a myriad combination of outcomes.

          Granted – Some outcomes are much more probable than not.

          Unfortunately (at this juncture) baseball is a game of possibilities not probablitites. If we were in the Rays position right now we would be relishing the opportunity to upset the odds and make it into the playoffs. That is why the game is so much fun.

          • Ted Nelson

            You literally say that the Yankees are the ONLY team ever to lose up 3-0. It’s happened ONCE out of how many series? That is the exception that proves the rule. It would take an historical collapse by the Yankees and/or historical finishes by the Rays and/or Angels and/or a healthy finish by the Red Sox to keep the Yankees out of the playoffs. The Yankees odds of making the playoffs right now are at 99.1%.

            It is possible that the 2011 Yankees also become the exception. Anything is possible, sure. One out of 100 times the Yankees will theoretically not make the playoffs in this position. I never said differently. What I said is that some things are EXTREMELY unlikely to happen. Like they will happen one out of 100 or 1,000 or 1,000,000 times. It’s possible, for example, that the sun won’t rise tomorrow… but you shouldn’t base your life around that possibility. The Yankees will theoretically make the playoffs 99 times out of 100 from this position and miss 1 time out of 100. That is why people are confident they will make it. They will be right ~99 out of 100 with that bet.

            If I were in a Rays fan’s position right now, I would realize that we have a fighting chance of getting the Wild Card, but next to no chance of winning the Division.

            • Ted Nelson

              Baseball is not a game where teams go 16-1 with regularity. That’s what it’s going to take from the Rays to win the division outright if the Yankees manage to go 8-9 (we’d expect ~10-7 based on their 60.7% W%), and the Red Sox would have to go 11-5 at the same time (if they win only 1 against the Rays, who can’t lose more than 1 in this scenario that would be 10-2 in their other games). If the Yankees manage 8-9… all it takes is one win each from the Red Sox and Yankees against the Rays to ensure the best the Rays can do is tie the Yankees to force a playoff.

            • Bob Stone

              Interesting dialog but I think you misunderstand my position. I am at a Fan Confidence Poll Rating of 9! I have been since the Yankees won the World Series in 2009 (when I was at 10).

              I like what I see with the Yankees. They are sitting pretty despite a couple ugly losses this past week.

              I enjoyed the BoSox/Rays games this weekend, rooting for the Rays. I know I should have rooted for the BosSox to eliminate the Rays and almost guarantee (it wouldn’t change the Angels position) a playoff spot.

              We basically agree on how we feel. I am just pointing out possibilities that we would all be discussing and praying for if the Yankees were in the position of the BosSox or the Rays.

              I understand the math. I wouldn’t trade positions with any team right now.

              • Ted Nelson

                I don’t mean to be confrontational. I agree there are possibilities of the Yankees missing the playoffs. I was just responding to steve s and your assertions that fans aren’t accounting for who the Yankees have left on their schedule.

                • Bob Stone

                  I know – no problem.

    • Ted Nelson

      I would say that the reason people are not worried is that it would take an historical collapse for the Yankees not to make the playoffs, coupled with a very strong run by Tampa and/or the Angels. That is certainly possible, just unlikely.

      Even if the Yankees with their W% over 60 on the season manage to win only 30% of their last 17 games (even if Tampa sweeps the remaining 7 games, Yankees could still go 5-5 in their other 10), it would take a W% over 70 from the Rays and over 80 from the Angels to tie them.

      If the Yankees manage to go just 8-9 over their last 17, it would take a 15-2 run from the Rays and a 16-0 run from the Angels to tie.

      It’s an interesting question, whether you try to determine who of Tampa and Boston makes the playoffs or just concentrate on your own team… I would lean towards concentrating on your own team.

      • Bob Stone

        No argument with your math.

      • Cris Pengiuci

        I would lean towards concentrating on your own team.

        As I imagine every professional sports team does as well. Even if the preference is for TB to make the playoffs from a Yankees perspective, I would imagine about the only thing Girardi can do to influence the games they play is to field an all minor league lineup. Even that is no guarantee of a loss for the Yankees. And, I highly doubt the Yankee regulars will rest for 4 games leading into the playoffs. They’re likely to get in at least some innings to keep their timing and stay prepared for the playoffs.

        • Bob Stone

          I am torn. It would be fun to see a Yankees-BoSox ALCS. But I would also really enjoy the BoSox collapsing to the Rays.

          Choices, Choices.

          I agree that the Yanks have to ignore it all and get ready for the playoffs.

          • Kosmo

            Who would the Yanks rather face ? A battered pitching staff with a great hitting lineup or a team with a great SP staff and so-so hitting ? I´d go with a Yanks – Sawx matchup. Barely.

            • Ted Nelson

              I’d take the Rays, I think. I would not call their SP “great,” just good. They play in a really pitcher-friendly park which helps their stats. The Trop has been more pitcher-friendly this season than PetCo, if it’s not the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball it’s close. After Price and Shields they haven’t got anyone I’m worried about… not in the rotation or the pen.

  • David, Jr.

    I am at 9. No reason at all to panic over a flat stretch, although we do need to get healthy.

    • CS Yankee

      Agreed

      Arod & Swish need to return to health & form. Colon is holding up quite well & Freddy is in a mini-rut.

      The Angels series could have been 3-0 (or 0-3) all with the “B” or “C” lineups. They were playing for their lives while the Yankees were trying to get healthy and play alert.

      Anytime you can go 1-4 and extend your lead by a game you have to be doing backflips.

      They can clinch by this Sunday and get the rotation in order over the next few weeks. If they don’t, the final week will have some major drama and may tax them come postseason (or get them on a roll).

      • Bob Stone

        It’s going to be fun – no matter which way it plays out.

      • David, Jr.

        Many people go whacko when they lose a few games, about Girardi, Tex, Cervelli, Nunez, Martin, AJ, Soriano, on and on to the point where you would think that they were the Baltimore Orioles or the Minnesota Twins.

        Assuming good health, the team has mostly positives. If you did a plus/minus list, what is even on the minus side? Perhaps the lack of a second left handed reliever? Perhaps starting pitching that could be rated as good, but not great?

        I see an excellent offense, an excellent defense, excellent relief pitching, surprisingly good speed, very good depth, and good starting pitching.

        They will easily make the playoffs, likely win the division, and be a handful for anybody.

  • JimAbbottFan

    I’m not too concerned with how they get into the playoffs, so long as they do so as healthy as possible, since, as Ted has already pointed out, the math lies in the Yankee’s favor. This past week definitely wasn’t great, but the 4-game losing streak came right after a 6-game winning streak, which falls within their Win%, and I’ll happily take it than the reverse.

    Also, the way the schedule played out certainly was a factor in some of the sluggishness. Sure, how much fatigue can there be when traveling in ultra-first-class with 10 star hotel accommodations, but it’s not so much physical, but more mental. I know if my routine is off, it can cause some stress. In fact, there was an article about just that concerning CC’s routines, which may apply to other players as well.

    The scenario I think of is that one rain-delayed game is similar to your boss telling you that you have work really late and still have to show up early the next day. “Plus”, he says, “You know that day off you were looking forward to? Well, forget it, you have to work then too.” That definitely would throw me off.

    But yeah, I’ll enjoy watching the Rays and Red Sox beat each other up.

    • Bob Stone

      Me too. It was fun watching BoSox/Rays this weekend.

  • CMP

    7.
    Still don’t think they have enough starting pitching to make a long run in the playoffs. CC is going to have to be dominant and he hasn’t been in the last 6 weeks or so.

  • ThisIsBaseball

    I would be higher than a 9, if the ownership would stop meddling so much.

  • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

    I’m at an 8, almost a 9. That’s just because of the current injuries with a bunch of key players. Also, if/when Burnett gets removed from the rotation I’ll be much more confident.
    And btw, the people who pick 1 on the confidence poll need to get a life. My God, this is the best team in the American League. They’ll win the AL East and have the best record. They have the best bullpen and one of the best offenses in the league with a rotation that can click with CC Sabathia, who I’ll take over anyone in the AL because of his ability to start and be very effective on 3 days rest, the postseason experience, and being able to handle the ginormous amount of pressure he’s had on his shoulders.

    • Kosmo

      Sabathia´s stellar 4.66 ERA in 13 postseason starts says it all. Cough cough.

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

        3.10 ERA in the postseason as a Yankee, basically the same as his 3.16 regular season ERA.

        • Kosmo

          In all of 2 Yankee postseasons no doubt. Last year wasn´t it something like 5.62 ? We can cherry pick stats if you want …

          • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

            Hey, you started it by citing his ERA in 3.2% of his career innings.