Archive for September, 2011
Is there an advantage to the lineup flip-flop?
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday Joe Girardi made a small lineup change that made many fans immensely happy. Robinson Cano, long thought of as an ideal No. 3 hitter, hit in that very spot, while Mark Teixeira, who has floundered at times this season, dropped back into Cano’s No. 5 spot. All parties seem to be on board with the switch. Teixeira himself even liked it, admitting that his left-handed swing needed work this off-season. The move certainly makes intuitive sense, but will that translate into tangible results?
One thing to keep in mind is that Cano, hitting mostly in the Nos. 4 and 5 spots this season, has hit with more runners on base than Teixeira, who has spent all but a few games at No. 3. Cano has also done a better job of driving in those runners, bringing home 21 percent of his 439 baserunners. Teixeira has driven in 17 percent of his 413 runners. So if Cano has seen more runners and has driven in more from his No. 5 spot, why move him?
Curtis Granderson helps put the issue in perspective. He has taken plenty of runners off base from the No. 2 hole, leaving fewer runners for Teixeira and Cano. Last year, batting mostly in the No. 5 spot, Cano came to bat with 470 runners on base, or 3.38 for every 5 PA. This year he’s down to 3.26 base runners per 5 PA. Teixeira is obviously more greatly affected, since he hits directly behind Granderson. In 2010 he saw 3.41 base runners per 5 PA, while this year he’s seen just 3.05 per 5 PA.
Of course, we can’t expect Granderson to continue his regular season home run pace in the postseason. That mitigates some of the baserunner issues, because Granderson won’t be taking them off base so frequently. In fact, as Granderson’s home run pace has somewhat slowed he’s taken more free passes. While his season walk rate is 12.4 percent, it has jumped to 14.3 percent in the last two months. That might give Cano a few additional opportunities with runners on base.
It does seem odd that the Yankees made this switch so late in the season. Cano has done fine work in the No. 5 hole. He has not only seen more runners on base than Teixeira in the No. 3 hole, but he has driven in a greater percentage of those runners. That would seem to be of importance come playoff time. But the Yankees can’t rely on Granderson’s homers as much, and that changes the equation slightly. It’s hard to predict where the runners will come from in the postseason, so it’s best for Girardi to set the order in the manner he sees as optimal.
As the numbers show, though, there’s not an enormous difference. Combine that with the unpredictable nature of the postseason (due to the small number of games), and it’s essentially a wash. Thankfully, all parties are on board with the move. That makes it a bit more palatable. We can only hope that it gives Cano just a few more opportunities to do what he’s done all season long.
Gary Sanchez ranked among top 20 Sally League prospects
Posted by: | CommentsBaseball America’s looked at the top 20 prospects in each minor league continued today with the Low-A South Atlantic League. Gary Sanchez ranked 14th, the only Yankees farmhand to crack a rather stacked list. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, arguably the two best prospects in baseball, topped the list.
In the subscriber-only scouting report, Bill Ballew says “Sanchez’s bat speed and strength ranked among the best in the league, though his swing gets too long at times.” The biggest problem is his defense, “because he stabs at pitches instead of shifting his body.” Sanchez led the league with 26 passed balls in just 60 games behind the plate. “He’s had to adjust to a lot of things both on and off the field,” said Charleston manager Aaron Ledesma, a gentle little reminder that Sanchez was demoted to Extended Spring Training for a few weeks in the middle of the season because of attitude problems.
The next top 20 list of interest to the Yankees is the High-A Florida State League, which will be posted on Monday. The Tampa Yankees were a pretty weak squad in terms of prospects this year, but it’s a solid bet that Brett Marshall will make an appearance. Jose Quintana and the Almontes (Zoilo and Abe) might sneak on, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
The Best/Worst Day of the Year
Posted by: | CommentsThere’s nothing better than pennant race baseball. The Yankees have already wrapped up their playoff spot and division title, and although we still don’t know who they’re going to play in the ALDS, we do know that Game One will start at 8:37pm ET on Friday night in Yankee Stadium. The last week of games has been relatively stress free, but that’s all going to change in two days.
Other teams are not so lucky though. The Yankees have been directly involved in the AL wildcard race over the last week and a half, a race that may or may not come to an end today. The Rays didn’t surge and catch the Red Sox as much as Boston blew their nine-game lead this month, and depending on today’s games, either one of those two teams will win the wildcard today or they’re going to play a Game 163 tomorrow. There is nothing more exciting than that, especially since we get to sit back and enjoy the game with no real rooting interest. Yeah, we all want the Sox to lose, but I can’t imagine many people will get all worked up over the game.
It’s not just the Sox and Rays either. In case you haven’t noticed, the Braves blew an eight-game wildcard lead over in the NL this month, and as of last night they’re tied with the Cardinals for the final playoff spot in the so-called Senior Circuit. Those two clubs are in the exact same situation as Boston and Tampa, someone could win the wildcard outright today, or they will end up playing a Game 163 tomorrow. Two Game 163′s? That would be amazing. There’s absolutely nothing better than playoff baseball, and make no mistake, these four teams are playing postseason games today.
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There’s nothing worse than the final day of the season. The 162 games seem to go by a little quicker with each passing year, and by now memories of early season games have blurred together. Tough losses have been all but forgotten, exciting wins are now little more than afterthoughts. Every team in every season has ups and downs, it’s just the nature of the game, but all those highs and lows are going on hiatus now. They’re gone until the spring.
More than anything else, I’ll miss the routine. The daily routine of work, Yankees, sleep we all seem to live during the summer. Some of you might go to school, but all of us manage to squeeze a meal or two in there somewhere. Those are the three constants though, for six months of the year those are the three things life revolves around. And all of a sudden, the routine is gone. What am I supposed to do with myself from 7pm until I go to bed each night (yay MLB.tv!) during the winter? It’s legit depressing.
We Yankees fans got to experience a whole lot of good this year. Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera made history. Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia surprised everyone. Curtis Granderson made a run at the MVP. Ivan Nova came into his own and David Robertson punched a hole in his ceiling and went even higher. Jesus Montero added some late season excitement. The playoffs are their own kind of monster, this alternate baseball world where the season seems to hinge on every pitch. The regular season is different though. It’s long and monotonous, at times even boring, but there’s a certain comfort in that. Baseball is a way of life in the Axisa household, so today is very bittersweet. Bring on the playoffs, even thought they mean the end of the routine.
Game 161: FTL
Posted by: | CommentsBartolo Colon has faced the Rays three times this year, and he’s 0-3 in those starts. No Yankees pitcher has ever (ever!) lost four games to the Tampa Bay franchise in a single season, but Big Bart has a chance to accomplish that tonight. Given where the team stands, it ‘s not really a big deal. It would be a big deal for the Rays and their wildcard chase though. Here’s the lineup…
Eduardo Nunez, SS
Curtis Granderson, CF
Robinson Cano, 2B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Mark Teixeira, 1B – oh by the way, new lineup
Nick Swisher, RF
Jorge Posada, DH
Russell Martin, C
Brett Gardner, LF
Bartolo Colon, SP
It’s a My9 game tonight, so it’s only fitting that it’s raining in St. Petersburg. Luckily this place has a roof. Game starts at 7pm ET, enjoy.
MLB announces ALDS Game One start time
Posted by: | CommentsMLB has announced that Game One of the ALDS will begin at 8:37pm ET on Friday. We still don’t know who the Yankees will play (either the Tigers or Rangers), but at least now we know when they’ll play. That game will be broadcast on TBS, as will the rest of the ALDS.
Pregame News: A new number three hitter
Posted by: | CommentsIt’s tough to consider a .244/.339/.482 batting line a poor season for most players, but when you’re Mark Teixeira and a .286/.377/.536 career hitter coming into the season, it is a disappointment. Tex’s struggles against right-handed pitchers this year (.221/.324/.450) are well known, and that’s why he’s hitting fifth tonight. Robinson Cano, who has no trouble hitting anyone, will bat third.
“It’s a great idea,” said Tex. “I told [Joe Girardi] I was all for it.” Although no one came out and admitted it, the change is likely permanent throughout the playoffs, at least against righty pitching. Tex can still mash lefties (.297/.377/.557), there’s no issue there. The first baseman acknowledged that the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium is “appetizing,” and he’s planning to work with hitting coach Kevin Long this offseason to iron out his left-handed swing.
This move isn’t just about Tex though, it’s also about maximizing opportunities. Cano has been intentionally walked ten times this year and five times in his last seven games, and although Nick Swisher is a quality hitter, he’s certainly not a guy that strikes the fear of God into a pitcher. When the choice is pitching to Cano or pitching to Swisher, you pitch to Nick every time. I doubt the other team will stop walking Cano now that he’s hitting third (how many batters have we seen get walked ahead of Alex Rodriguez over the years?), but at least now A-Rod and Tex and Swisher are all behind Robbie to pick up the slack.
A meaning for these meaningless games
Posted by: | CommentsNow that Joe and I got what we had to say about The Collapse off our chests, it’s time to turn our attention back to the Yankees. These last two games against Tampa mean nothing to them in the grand scheme of things, and the only stuff left to address are the margins of the playoff roster, the backup catcher situation and the last one or two arms in the bullpen. And then there’s Alex Rodriguez.
Unfortunately for the Yankees, A-Rod has developed a bit of an injury problem since signing his massive, so ugly I don’t even want to cite the numbers contract after the 2007 season. First came the quad strain in 2008, then the hip in 2009, then the calf in 2010, and this year it was both a knee and a thumb. Alex hasn’t played more than 138 games in any of the last three seasons, and he sure as heck won’t get there this year.
All the missed time hurts not only because A-Rod is out of the lineup, but also because he’s typically been a slow starter once he does rejoin the team. Following that storybook first-pitch homer after his hip surgery, A-Rod had just two hits (both singles) in his next 29 plate appearances. The calf strain limited him to a .200/.250/.467 batting line over a 64 PA stretch. Since coming back from the knee surgery, he’s hit just .197/.338/.364 in 80 PA, but that includes all the time he was hampered with the thumb problem.
“I never get into results,” said A-Rod on Monday. ”It’s more about balance and plate discipline. I feel I’m right on schedule.” Hitting coach Kevin Long acknowledged that Alex’s “timing is off,” adding that they are working on his leg kick, among other stuff.
All we’ve talked about for the last week or two is rest, getting these players off their feet a little bit after the six-month regular season and before the playoffs begin. Well A-Rod has already had a ton of rest in the second half between the knee and thumb issues. There are only two games left in the regular season, and it’s probably not the worst thing in the world for the Yankees to let their cleanup hitter play all nine innings in both games. Rodriguez can use the at-bats, so these last meaningless games don’t have to be completely useless for him.
Cheering on The Collapse for fun and profit
Posted by: | Comments
Be honest: If the Yankees weren’t indirectly involved in the AL’s most compelling storyline right now, would you even watch their last two games? I wouldn’t. My MLB.tv would be set to the Rays and Red Sox games. It’s a bit fortunate, then, that the Yankees are facing the Rays. It means I can watch the Yankees finish out their season while keeping up with the most exciting games of the season.
Yankees fans have to be divided in some way during these last few games. Can any of you actually root for the Yankees to lose? That’s a tough proposition. I can let go of a loss much easier in this instance, but I don’t think actively rooting for the Rays is an option right now. But at the same time I want to see the Red Sox complete The Collapse and watch playoff baseball from their homes. (Though, given the enormity of their collapse I doubt any of them would actually watch baseball this fall.)
One reason for wanting the Red Sox out of the playoffs is obvious. As Yankees fans we have two duties. First, and foremost, is to root for the Yankees. That takes precedence over everything else baseball related. A distant second is to hope for Red Sox losses. Yet there is another, perhaps more powerful, element at play here. I don’t just want to see the Sox fall out because they’re the Sox. I want them to fall out because they’re the Sox. Allow me to elaborate.
Losing skids last only so long. Good teams can slump, and in rare instances they can collapse for a few weeks. Let’s not pretend that the Red Sox are actually this bad. They have scored more runs than any team in baseball. They have two top-tier pitchers heading their staff. They have two phenomenal relievers to end games. For the first five months of the season they won more games than any team in the American League, despite going just 11-15 in April. They’re absolutely a threat if they make the playoffs.
The principle at play here is that hot and cold streaks can turn on a dime. Remember when the Yankees lost six straight? They then won that seventh game and ended up winning seven of their next nine. Then, from May 29th through July 2nd they went 23-8. Then remember when they won eight straight to start August? They followed that by losing three straight. True, none of those streaks and skids nearly measure up to Boston’s current slide. But the principle holds true: streaks and skids can change at any time, without notice or prior indication.
The only reason to root for the Red Sox at this point is if you feel that the Rays are the stronger overall team. Given the way both teams have played throughout the season, that’s a tough point to argue. Remember, it’s not as though the Rays went on some crazy winning streak to pull back into the AL Wild Card race. They’ve gone 14-10 in September, after an 18-10 August. Those are good records, by and large, but they’re not part of some miraculous surge. They play solid baseball, and have all season. The Red Sox, on the other hand, played dominant baseball for four to five months before collapsing in the final one. If they get back on track, they’re clearly a bigger threat than the Rays.
The question, then, is whether you think the Sox can get back on track. I certainly think they can. They’re too good not to. If that turnaround happens in the last few games, they could be headed to the playoffs with that terrible September behind them. It’s a brand new life, and it’s not difficult to see them using that life to steamroll the AL playoff competition. And then we’re back to the whole rooting for the Yanks and against the Sox thing.
Bonus 1: Counterpoint
While writing this I couldn’t help but think of the rivalry. The Red Sox and Yankees, when they have something on the line, makes for some of the most compelling baseball I’ve ever watched. Wouldn’t the best possible ALCS matchup be the Yankees vs. the Red Sox? And, if the Yankees were to win the World Series, wouldn’t it be that much sweeter to go through the Sox in doing so?
These are tough questions to balance. I fully believe that the Yankees’ easiest path to the World Series is one that does not involve the Red Sox. But at the same time, I believe that a matchup with the Sox will make for the best baseball. It can be tough to reconcile these two thoughts.
Bonus 2: This could be a drama-free series
Last week Joel Sherman reported that MLB and the MLBPA have agreed to add a fifth playoff team from each league. This could go into effect as early as next year. The premise is simple: the two non-division-winners with the best records will play one game to determine who advances to the next round. While the main idea here is revenue enhancement, there are baseball reasons at play. Namely, it makes the division title much more important. It could also lend drama to the final few weeks, since another team would have something at stake.
This year, however, the additional playoff spot would reduce the drama of the Wild Card chase. The Rays and the Sox would have little to play for in the final two games, since they’d face each other in a one-game playoff regardless of how they fared in the last two games. Yes, there would have been a little added interest with the Angels involved, but they played their way right out of it this weekend. And so instead of watching the Rays and the Sox closely this week, we could turn off our TVs until Wednesday, when those two teams would have their playoff.
Yet the current system makes this race that much more compelling. We have a real race, one that could easily end in a tie and force a Game 163. Yes, the new system will bring a Game 163 every year, but then it will lose some of its magic. The beauty of Game 163 is that two teams somehow ended up tied for a single playoff spot. There’s natural drama there. But with a forced one, it’s just business as usual. It won’t be bad, per se, but it’s not necessarily better than the system currently in place.










