Archive for October, 2011
Mailbag: Montero, Oppenheimer, Sabathia, Bay
Posted by: | CommentsGot five questions this week, but two are pretty short. Remember to use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar whenever you want to send in questions in the future.
(Jim McIsaac/Getty Images North America)
Mark asks: Could Montero be taught how to play 3B? A-Rod seemingly will need to become the Yankee’s full-time DH eventually. Do you know of any player that converted to 3B with his body type and lack of athleticism?
The official site lists Jesus Montero at 6-foot-3 and 235 lbs., and you can count the number of regular third baseman that size on one hand: Scott Rolen (6-foot-4, 240), Alex Rodriguez (6-foot-3, 230), Ryan Zimmerman (6-foot-3, 230), Mark Reynolds (6-foot-2, 220), and Danny Valencia (6-foot-2, 220). Montero’s a touch bigger than Valencia and he’s definitely not in the same class athletically as A-Rod, Rolen, or Zimmerman. That’s for sure. Reynolds moved to first base late this season, so I’m not sure he counts.
Most guys that move to third base after their fourth or fifth pro season are failed shortstops or second baseman, middle infielders moving down the defensive spectrum. Brandon Inge did the “catcher turned third base” thing, but he’s only 5-foot-11 and 190 lbs. Realistically, the only place Montero can move is to first base or DH. If they want to try the outfield, then I wish them luck. It won’t be a quick or painless transition. A-Rod looked perfectly fine on defense in the ALDS, more than fine actually, it was his bat that slowed. I don’t think we have to worry about him in the field just yet.
Tucker asks: Despite the obvious loss that would be felt by Damon Oppenheimer’s potential departure, could there be some benefits towards having him elsewhere? He knows the Yanks system so if he goes to a team, such as the Angels, could we expect some trades?
We see this happen all the time, guys leave one organization to become the GM elsewhere, then they start stockpiling players they drafted or had with their original team. Dayton Moore’s loaded up ex-Braves in Kansas City (Kyle Davis, Brayan Pena, Jeff Francoeur), Jack Zduriencik brought in a number of ex-Brewers after hooking on with the Mariners (Russell Branyan, Bill Hall, Brad Nelson), and it seems like every trade Ed Wade has made as GM of the Astros has been with the Phillies (Hunter Pence, Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge). The examples go on and on.
Is there a benefit to this know? Maybe. On one hand you can argue that the new GM is overvaluing the players he knows, but on the other hand you can say that he knows them better than anyone and is digging up the hidden gems. I would definitely expect some trades, but I don’t think Oppenheimer (or Billy Eppler for that matter, since he’s up for the same job) would just give his new players to his old team out of the goodness of his heart.
Shaun asks: Just a quick question, do you think the yankees would negotiate with CC Sabathia before he opts out of his contract or would they wait? I think they waited with A-Rod at the time and took a hard stance with him. I’d argue that they would need CC more than they needed A-Rod at the time.
I agree with you about needing Sabathia now more than they needed A-Rod then, but let’s not forget how awesome Alex was four years ago. Anyway, I’m sure they would be open to negotiating with CC at some point soon, even though the company line is to wait until the contract is over. That would eliminate the hassle of the open market, and as we heard last night, the Rangers are prepared to get involved. Let’s put it this way, the Yankees have nothing to lose by talking to him about an extension beforehand.
(Photo Credit: ESPN)
Kevin asks: What about an A.J. Burnett for Jason Bay swap?
We’ve gotten this question a number of times, and apparently it all started with some MSM article that was published during the summer. I’m not quite sure what the goal is here, is the plan to put Bay in right and trade Nick Swisher for a pitcher? Swish alone won’t fetch a legit number two starter just because he’s a year away from free agency. The net result would end up being Burnett, Swisher, and prospects for Bay and an unknown number two starter.
Burnett’s terrible, you don’t have to tell me that, but so is Bay. As an added bonus, he’s now injury prone as well. This isn’t just a CitiField thing either folks; since joining the Mets, Bay has a .358 wOBA at home and .296 on the road. I don’t but into the idea that getting him back on the contender with somehow reinvigorate him, and I can’t imagine the Yankees will fall for that either. The deal also doesn’t work in the Yankees favor with regards to contracts. Bother are locked up for the next two years (Bay at $32M, Burnett at $33M), but Bay has an easily vesting option for 2014 (Omar Minaya’s specialty). All it takes is 500 plate appearances in both 2012 and 2013 or 600 plate appearances in 2013 alone. You’d end up trading for the guy, then hoping he doesn’t play much the next two years to prevent the option from kicking in. No win situation.
As terribad as A.J. is, the Yankees aren’t exactly in a position to trade pitching for offense, even if the corresponding move is to trade Swisher for an arm. There would be no winners in this trade, so I’d rather stick with the devil I know rather than the devil I don’t.
Dan asks: Which roster player(s) would you trade for a legitimate #2 starter?
This depends on our definition of number two starter, but I’d trade pretty much everyone other than Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, CC Sabathia, and Jesus Montero for that kind of pitcher. When I think of a number two starter, I think Matt Garza, Jamie Shields, Matt Cain, John Danks … guys like that. That’s just me though, you’re welcome to feel differently.
Report: Texas ready to throw a “boatload” of cash at CC
Posted by: | CommentsOnce Brian Cashman inks a new deal at some point in the near future, priority number one for the Yankees will be to get CC Sabathia re-signed after he inevitably opts out of his contract. Once that happens, then the rest of the offseason can really start to take shape. No team will be able to offer Sabathia more money the Yankees, but according to ESPN New York, the Rangers sure are going to try…
“I hear they’re going to throw a boatload of money at him,” said the source, who requested anonymity, “But I think he’ll stay with the Yankees. He’s talked so much about how much he loves New York, and besides, the Yankees can’t afford to lose him from that pitching staff.”
Like the Yankees, the Rangers were left with Cliff Lee money in their pocket last offseason, but they gave a bunch of it to Adrian Beltre ($80M, to be exact). They also have incumbent lefty ace C.J. Wilson up for free agency, but I’m sure they’re willing to let him walk in exchange for adding Sabathia. In fact, they’d even gain a draft pick in that scenario (lose one for signing CC, gain two for losing C.J.).
In reality, there’s not much news here. Pretty much every big market team will have their eye on Sabathia when he hits free agency, and Texas showed a willingness last offseason to spend big bucks under their new Nolan Ryan-led ownership group. They’ll make an aggressive push, put a little pressure on the Yankees (as well as Wilson and his agent), but I gotta believe they’d really have to blow Sabathia out of the water for him to consider uprooting his family for the second time in three-plus years. I’m not saying the Rangers won’t be a serious bidder, but I don’t think this will be as wide open as the Lee talks were.
Joba Update: Throws from 60-feet start Monday
Posted by: | CommentsVia the man himself, Joba Chamberlain is scheduled to throw from 60-feet for the first time on Monday. He’ll make 75 throws from 45-feet tomorrow, and continue to stretch out to about 180-feet. Joba started his throwing program late last month, and so far he’s right on schedule in his Tommy John surgery rehab, if not a touch ahead. This wasn’t a good year for the big guy, but I’m excited to have him back at some point next year. Joba continues to be a personal fave.
Open Thread: NY Minute at Yankee Stadium
Posted by: | CommentsI’m a sure for time lapse videos, but isn’t everyone? That one above, courtesy of Silver Halide and passed along by Flip Flop Fly Ballin’, consists of over 2,000 photos of New Yankee Stadium taken during the 2009 season. It’s a minute of awesomeness, so give it a watch. Neat stuff.
Anyway, here is your open thread for the night. The Tigers and Rangers are just wrapping up with game (on FOX), and the Cardinals and Brewers will resume their NLCS at 8pm ET on TBS (Lohse vs. Wolf). Both the Islanders and Devils are playing as well. Talk about whatever you like, anything goes.
Joba, Maxwell activated from 60-day DL; Corona outrighted
Posted by: | CommentsVia Mark Feinsand, the Yankees have reinstated Joba Chamberlain, Justin Maxwell, and Reegie Corona from the 60-day DL. There’s no DL in the offseason, so these guys had to be activated at some point. Corona was then outrighted off the 40-man roster, ending one of the oddest 40-man stints in memory. He’s a poor man’s Ramiro Pena, if you can believe that.
Anyway, the 40-man roster now sits at 39 players with four more 60-day DL guys still yet to be activated: Pedro Feliciano, Colin Curtis, Damaso Marte, and Sergio Mitre. Marte and Mitre are goners, obviously.
Whether you like it not, picking up Swisher’s option is the right move
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(AP Photo/Kathy Willens)
The Yankees have three club option decisions to make this offseason, and two are painfully obvious. Robinson Cano‘s $14M option will be picked up while Damaso Marte‘s $4M option will not. That’s the easy part. The third decision may not be so cut and dry, but that’s entirely based on fan perception. Some people like Nick Swisher, who can be retained for $10.25M next season, and some people don’t. It works like that for literally every player. However, because of Swisher’s third consecutive awful postseason in pinstripes, there’s some belief that the Yankees would be better off parting ways with their right fielder of the last three years.
I’m not here to debate Swisher’s merits, but rather explain that no matter what side of the argument you fall on (like him or hate him), the obvious move is to exercise the option. Let’s break it down…
If You Like Him
This will be short and easy. Swisher’s incredibly productive (.358+ wOBA in five of the last six years, never fewer than 21 HR) and also incredibly durable (150+ games played in each of the last six seasons). By no means is his defense great, but it’s better than he gets credit for. His range-heavy +2.8 UZR over the last three seasons is a tick above-average and basically middle of the pack among all right fielders. Well-above-average offense and average defense plus durability equals a really valuable player, especially on a one-year deal that would pay him less than he’d get on the open market.
If You Don’t Like Him
I honestly don’t care why anyone dislikes any player, we all have our reasons. Could be his personality, could be the playoff performance, could be the batting average, doesn’t matter to me. Even if you think they should get rid of Swisher, the reason you pick up the option is so you can trade him. He still has value, quite a bit of it, and they shouldn’t just give that away (for two draft picks, which are worth something but not a ton) because of the ALDS. The Yankees pulled this exact trick with Gary Sheffield after the 2006 season, shipping him the Tigers for three minor league arms.
What could the Yankees get for Swisher? Who knows. The best comparable I can come up with is Josh Willingham, another bat-first corner outfielder that was traded one year before free agency. The Nationals received a Triple-A ready center fielder (Corey Brown) and a big league ready reliever (Henry Rodriguez) in the trade, two guys that Baseball America ranked as the 12th and 13th best prospects in Oakland’s system before the season. Decent return, nice deal for a rebuilding team.
Sheffield and Matt Holliday also fit the “corner outfielder traded one year before free agency mold,” but Sheffield was old and broken down at the time of the trade and Holliday is just straight up better than Swisher. They aren’t great comparisons. Neither is David DeJesus, who fits the narrative but is an inferior player to Swisher. Willingham seems to be the best fit. Two Grade-B prospects are better than two draft picks, which is why the Yankees should pick up the option and trade him rather than just decline the option if they don’t want him around.
* * *
Remember, it’s a $10.25M option with a $1M buyout, so the net value is just $9.25M. You all know what I think; the Yankees should just keep Swisher because they’re not going to beat his production at that price (in terms of dollars and years). If you think they should go separate ways though, at least recognize that they’d be better off exercising the option and trading him rather than outright declining it.
Link Dump: Comeback Player of the Year, Ortiz
Posted by: | CommentsAnother rainy, yucky afternoon in New York, so I’ve got some inks that will hopefully brighten up the late lunch hour…
One of the two times Fat Elvis went deep in pinstripes. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)
Berkman, Ellsbury named Comeback Players of the Year
MLB announced today that Jacoby Ellsbury and former Yankee Lance Berkman have been named the AL and NL Comeback Players of the Year, respectively. Call me a homer, but I think Bartolo Colon should have taken home the AL award. I view this season as a breakout year for Ellsbury, not a comeback. Colon’s career was basically over, it had been four full year since he was last an effective pitcher. Put it this way, what would have surprised you more in March, Ellsbury having the year he had, or Colon having the year he had? Oh well, just my two cents. Congrats to Puma.
Ortiz and the Yankees
Amidst the chaos going on in the Boston, David Ortiz told ESPN’s Colleen Dominguez that he didn’t want to be part of the drama next year. That led to an exchange about the Yankees, and possibly wearing pinstripes in 2012…
“That’s something I gotta think about,” Ortiz said. “I’ve been here on the Red Sox a long time, and I’ve seen how everything goes down between these two ballclubs.”
Ortiz stopped well short of saying he wanted to play for the Yankees, but did express respect for the organization.
“It’s great from what I hear,” Ortiz said of the Yankees. “It’s a good situation to be involved in. Who doesn’t want to be involved in a great situation where everything goes the right way?
Well, I’m glad Ortiz is willing to spend some time thinking about joining the Yankees, but it takes two to tango. As Joe explained yesterday, acquiring a DH is so far down the team’s priority list right now that it’s one notch above “get a new second baseman.” They’d have to give up a draft pick to sign Ortiz since he’s a Type-A free agent (and will certainly be offered arbitration), and then deal with the inevitable PED questions when the Red Sox throw him under the bus as part of their smear campaign like they do everyone else.
Yanks exec interviewed for Phillies gig
Just a small note, but George King reports the Yankees allowed assistant pro scouting director Will Kuntz to interview for the Phillies minor league director position, but he did not get it. This comes on the heels of the news that both Billy Eppler and Damon Oppenheimer were given permission to interview for the Angels vacant GM position (Kuntz works under Eppler). I guess it’s good to know the Yankees front office people are wanted around the league.
What Went Wrong: Joba Chamberlain
Posted by: | CommentsOver the next few weeks, we’re going to look back at what went right, what went wrong, and what went as expected during the 2011 campaign.
(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
For the fourth year in a row, the Yankees relief corps was a strength in 2011. Joe Girardi’s bullpen machinations helped keep everyone fresh and effective, including journeymen like Luis Ayala and Cory Wade. It also helps when you have three power arms that can pass as relief aces for most teams, but not everything went right with those guys. In fact, in the case, of Joba Chamberlain, this season went about as wrong as possible.
With big money signee Rafael Soriano taking over eighth inning duties to start the season, Joba was pushed back to the seventh inning. No big deal, he was still responsible for three outs either way. He allowed seven runs in his first eleven appearances before settling down and firing off six straight scoreless outings, then took over the eighth when Soriano came down with some elbow issues in mid-May. Joba continued to pitch well, allowing just one run across eight innings before needing 35 pitches to record five outs against the Angels on June 5th. It was his highest pitch count of the season (by seven pitches) and his most since since September of 2009, when he was a starter.
Three days later, the Yankees announced that Joba had been placed on the disabled list with a strained flexor muscle in his right elbow after feeling soreness for weeks. He would not throw for ten days, and was expected back in about three weeks. One day later, the news was much more grim. Chamberlain’s strained flexor muscle turned into a torn elbow ligament, and he would ultimately require Tommy John surgery. He hadn’t shown any of the usual symptoms or experienced any of the usual pain associated with a torn ligament, so the diagnosis was a bot of a surprise.
The elbow reconstruction was performed in mid-June, and while on the shelf, Joba required another surgery for an appendectomy. Not long after that, he needed another surgery to clean out an infection that developed during said appendectomy. Despite all that, Joba started his throwing program late last month, about two weeks ahead of schedule (unofficially). Tommy John rehab is a long and arduous process, and even the most optimistic of time tables have him returning in late-April. June would be the much more reasonable expectation.
Joba’s fastball velocity was perfectly fine this year, but that’s not really an indicator of elbow trouble. Velocity is more indicative of shoulder issues. Elbow problems general show in control, or lack thereof. Joba threw 45.3% of his pitches in the strike zone this year, which is actually perfectly league average, but it is down from his 48.4% from 2008-2010. Although his swing and miss rate (10.3%) was his best since 2008, his strikeout rate (7.53 K/9) was a career low and down more than two full strikeouts from last year. The strikeouts had been replaced by ground balls (59.7%), either intentionally or unintentionally.
The Yankees were able to survive Joba’s season-ending injury because of their bullpen depth, and they’re going to have to get by without him early next year as well. It would make sense for the team to have him stretch out and rehab as a starter, but we all know it won’t happen. They should be able to ease him back into late-inning work thanks for Soriano and David Robertson, but command is usually the last thing to come back after elbow surgery. It’s very possible that we won’t see the real Joba again until Opening Day 2013.
Breaking down the payroll
Posted by: | CommentsAs always, the Yankees will have some work to do this offseason, primarily with shoring up their pitching staff. They have a decent amount of money coming off the books, mostly in the form of Jorge Posada ($13.1M) and Kei Igawa ($4M), and that money will be plugged right back into the team. In fact, that money and then some figures to be spent this winter. With some help from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, let’s look at the Yankees salary commitments for 2012…
- Guaranteed Contracts (eight players, $125.625M): Alex Rodriguez ($30M), Mark Teixeira ($23.125M), A.J. Burnett ($16.5), Derek Jeter ($16M), Mariano Rivera ($15M), Rafael Soriano ($11M), Curtis Granderson ($10M), Pedro Feliciano ($4M)
- Option Pick-Ups (two players, $24.25M): Robinson Cano ($14M), Nick Swisher ($10.25M)
- Option Buy-Outs (one player, $0.250M): Damaso Marte ($0.250M)
That’s guaranteed money only, and I took the liberty of leaving CC Sabathia out given his opt-out clause. The ten players (not counting Marte) account for $150.25M, and based on MLBTR’s projections, we should conservatively tack on another $17.9M for the six arbitration-eligible players (David Robertson, Boone Logan, Joba Chamberlain, Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, and Russell Martin). That makes it $168.15M for 16 players.
The pre-arbitration guys don’t make a ton of money (relative to the baseball pay scale, that is), but they add up. There’s 18 of them on 40-man roster right now plus two more coming in David Phelps and D.J. Mitchell (who are Rule 5 Draft eligible), so let’s conservatively estimate those guys at $10M total (half a mil each). Andrew Brackman is a bit of a wild card. He earned $1M last season and I have to imagine he’ll make at least that next year per the terms of his big league contract. Let’s call it another $1M for simplicity’s sake, putting us at $179.15M for 37 players. Of course, a few of those pre-arb guys (Reegie Corona, Kevin Whelan, Justin Maxwell, etc.) figure to meet the roster axe at some point in the not too distant future.
So after all that, the Yankees still need to a) re-sign Sabathia, b) add one more starter, preferably two (assuming one is a Bartolo Colon/Freddy Garcia-type), and c) fill out the bench. Item (c) can be minimized by having Brandon Laird replace Eric Chavez and one of the minimum salary guys replace Andruw Jones. I’d be fine with Laird, at least to start the season, but I’m not sure who would replace Jones as the designated lefty masher. Greg Golson? Maxwell? Eh, not likely. Gonna have to spend a little something there. It was nice having a strong bench this past season.
Hal Steinbrenner has held firm on that $200M (or thereabouts) payroll limit over the last few years, so the Yankees will have to get a little creative to address all their needs. Sabathia did take a reduced salary in the first year of his current contract, so maybe he’d agree to that again knowing Rivera, Swisher, and Feliciano will be coming off the books after the season. Yu Darvish would likely come at a lower annual salary than C.J. Wilson, but would also require a massive up front posting fee payment. Also keep in mind that the salary estimates for the arbitration and pre-arbitration players are conservative and probably a little high, so that $179.15 might be more like $175M or so. Insurance might cover Feliciano’s salary for all we know. And who knows, maybe Soriano will opt out, but I’m not holding my breath.
The Yankees appear to have about $25M to play with this winter, which is a ton of free cash in most years. This isn’t most years though. Sabathia needs to be retained and they need even more pitching on top of that, so something has to give here.
The Red Sox Chaos From Afar
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(Elise Amendola/AP)
You’ve surely seen it by now, but The Boston Globe’s Bob Hohler published this exposé on the Red Sox and their clubhouse issues on Wednesday, shedding light on some very real problems. I recommended reading the whole thing, but if you don’t have time, Craig Calcaterra has a nice little recap. The stuff about starting pitchers drinking in the clubhouse during games, Jacoby Ellsbury’s isolation, and the general lack of leadership are genuine problems, but there’s also some personal stuff about Terry Francona that I don’t think was relevant or anyone’s business. The Francona stuff is a classic Red Sox smear job, a tactic they’ve employed after every major break-up during the John Henry era.
While all that was going on, long-time GM Theo Epstein was busy finalizing a deal to go to the Cubs, eschewing the final year of his Red Sox contract so he could try to end another curse*. Joel Sherman says Epstein had already made it clear he was leaving after his contract expired for personal and professional reasons, so ownership let him go now. Ben Cherington, one of the best GM prospects in the game, figures to take over after serving as Epstein’s top lieutenant for basically forever.
Reportedly, Epstein’s new deal with the Cubs will pay him $15M over five years, which almost assuredly makes him the highest paid GM in the game. The Yankees are in the middle of supposedly peaceful talks with Brian Cashman about a new contract, and despite what Ken Rosenthal says, I have to think Epstein’s deal will have a trickle down affect. Cashman’s tenure with New York has been more successful than Epstein’s with the Sox, especially if you want to look at the short-term, the last four or five years. Point to the payroll if you want, but I’m pretty sure those guys in Boston have done a bang-up job of proving that spending money on free agents isn’t as easy as it looks.
The last six weeks or so have been a full blown collapse for the Sox, and not just in the standings. Epstein’s gone, Francona’s gone (and ownership is bringing up personal info to throw him under the bus), revelations about a fractured clubhouse are coming to light … it makes you appreciate the Yankees, doesn’t it? Cashman’s contract talks are going smoothly, just like Joe Girardi’s did last year, there are no issues (we know of) in the clubhouse, there’s no chaos at all. The Red Sox franchise has to be embarrassed by what’s happened over the last few weeks, but it’s nice and quiet for the Yankees. Yeah, they lost in the ALDS, but as our neighbors to the north are showing, there are much worse fates than that.
* Can you imagine that? Ending the Red Sox curse then ending the Cubs curse? That would be some legacy.
Just 21 days 'til pitchers and catchers report.
