Sunday Night Open Thread

A Little Bit of Luck
From Cashman, a thought on the new Wild Card
Random photo is random. (AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

Thanksgiving is my favorite holiday for a number of reasons, but I’m definitely looking more forward to having a few days off at the end of the week than I am the actual feast. This week is always great for those working in a traditional office, because the place will be empty for the next few days. I used to use my vacation time during the summer and work these days around the holidays, both Thanksgiving and Christmas, because someone had to been there and there was never anything to do. That’s kinda how I started blogging. It was awesome.

Anyway, here’s the open thread for the night. The late football game is the Eagles at the Giants (8:20pm ET on NBC), so that’s pretty awesome. Talk about anything you want here, it’s all fair game. Go nuts.

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A Little Bit of Luck
From Cashman, a thought on the new Wild Card
  • Joba’s Mom

    Valentine to the Red Sox? Please?

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

      As a Yankee fan who wants to win I wouldn’t root for that if I were you. Bobby V’s a good baseball man and would help them win games.

      I’m hoping it happens, but only to spice up the rivalry. I also think Girardi is a smidge better, but not enough to make a huge difference. They’re both very smart and very good at what they do. Bobby’s a good fit for the Sox if they want a new direction, he’s like the anti-Francona. Very hands on, very involved in everything.

      • mbonzo

        If Valentine is viewed as a good baseball man, I think he’d have a job by now. He seems to have interviewed for just about every managerial job over the last few years and hasn’t gotten a single offer.

        • radnom


          He seems to have interviewed for just about every managerial job over the last few years and hasn’t gotten a single offer.

          Such as? I always seem to hear his name come up, but usually as a rumor, never as solid as an interview. Do you remember offhand? All my searches turn up recent RS articles.

          • mbonzo

            I don’t know all of them but it was reported that he interviewed for the Indians, Orioles, Mariners and Blue Jays. He didn’t get along with the Marlins. He was also supposed to interview with the Brewers I think. Not sure what came of that.

        • RetroRob

          Oh, many things impact decisions like that, including Valentine’s time in Japan. Buck Showalter is a pain in the ass, but is recognized as a good manager and was out for a few years. There might even be similarities between Valentine and Showalter. Both are strong-willed people who will not think twice of clashing with the front office, yet that maybe why they also make good managers. Billy Martin have been one of the best managers ever, but also clashed with the front office.

          Davey Johnson was regarded as an exceptional manager and was game for a decade or two!

          • Mister Delaware

            I thought Johnson couldn’t get a job because of real or perceived drinking issues and being too lax w/ players.

            • RetroRob

              Honestly, I don’t know. The Mets did have some issues certainly during his tenure, although his reptation always remained intact.

              Hmmm, drinking issues. Surprised he didn’t try interviewing to replace LaRussa!

    • Urban

      I wouldn’t view it as a positive. There’s a lot of bluster with Valentine, but he’s also a good manager, and if there truly are discipline issues in the Red Sox club house, he will clean them up. He’s also loves the media spotlight, so he’ll over the place.

      I’m hoping the Red Sox continue to view the manager as a tool of the front office and go again for someone with little experience, boring and not a strategist.

  • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

    Someone explain to me how Nunez works in a deal. He cant be the centerpiece, even for one of their overworked-but-very-good lefty relievers.

    Nunez+Swisher for Hudson? Nunez+Burnett(who the Braves wanted badly in 08) for…nothing? Igawa+Nunez for shits and giggles? (BTW-that would be a perfectly even deal, respectively)

    Someone explain to me what the Bravos are thinking.

    • Thomas Cassidy

      Nunez would be a major part, but not a centerpiece. If he’s a centerpiece, it’s because we aren’t getting anything much back.

      Betances, Nunez, and Joseph for Hudson. That sounds like a pretty good deal to me.

      • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

        Betances doesn’t strike me as a Braves pitcher. He’s too much of a lottery ticket.

      • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

        Why should the Yankees even bother with that? I don’t really have anything against Tim Hudson, but trade away their No. 2 pitching prospect and a very important bench piece for him? I’m not really feeling that.

        • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

          We replace Nunez when we deal Burnett to the Dodgers for Juan Uribe and make him our super sub.

          • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

            Ok, if we moved Nunez in a good deal, I could probably get down with Uribe. How about the RF vacancy?

            • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

              I already replied below, but it would either be Beltran or the Cuban kid. I would bet good money its Beltran.

              • RetroRob

                Cespedes is an unknown, and even if he’s good, he will probably require a year, or more, in the minors.

                The Cuban league he’s coming from has been rated the equivalent of low A-ball.

          • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

            I think I misread the comment above. I’ve just seen a lot of deals including Swisher so I assumed Swisher was in this one.

            I still don’t really like moving Betances in that deal though. Want the Yanks to aim higher if they’re going to trade away top prospects.

          • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher

            That PS3 of yours must be so overheated since this morning when you were still peddling your series of video game moves.

        • Thomas Cassidy

          Because their number two pitching prospect is a prospect. He’s nothing. He’s not major league ready, and not all prospects pan out. Tim Hudson is one of the best pitchers in the game.

          • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

            Yea yea yea, I’ve seen/heard/read that prospect line 10,000 times. I’m not saying that they all should be hoarded, but if the Yanks are going to trade them I want to see some top tier talent.

            Tim Hudson is definitely a solid pitcher, but I think he falls shy of the best pitchers in the game. I’m really not trying to knock him either. There is plenty of value in being a very solid and consistent pitcher, but I want the Yanks to aim higher.

            • Thomas Cassidy

              The problem with that is there aren’t that many good pitchers available right now.

              • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

                That’s true, but that means the Yanks need to wait.

                • Thomas Cassidy

                  I think Cashman will wait for the right moment and make a good trade. As long as Levine and the ownership doesn’t come in and fuck everything up.

    • mbonzo

      I really didn’t like Nunez, but when you assess the middle infielder marke you’ve got a guy who’s capable of posting an above average OPS at such a young age and probably get you 50ish stolen bases in a full year’s worth of plate appearances. I really think Nunez’s trade value is higher than Romine’s because of the availability at his position and that he’s proven he can hit.

      He’d be a corner stone piece for a B prospect, and yea I could see him as a corner stone for a guy like Mike Minor.

      I’d love to find out where they sit on Heyward. The Braves strike me as team thats looking to compete now (for whatever reason) and yes they desperately need OFers, but Heyward lost a lot of favor last year. Maybe Gardner + Nunez for Heyward?

      • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

        Do I just need to brush up on my Atlanta Braves gossip or are we getting ridiculous with this Jason Heyward stuff?

        From everything I’ve heard and read (admittedly, not a ton and not recently) Heyward is very focused and mature – not the type that would fall out of favor after two seasons. Especially a great rookie performance.

        • mbonzo

          If the Braves are in win now mode and fear that Heyward stock might plummet any more, why wouldn’t they consider trading him for 2 valuable win now pieces? I don’t think it’ll happen, but that’d be very interesting.

          • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

            I’m not tuned into Atlanta sports the way we are with the Yankees, but I would imagine that the Braves’ management is smart enough not to sell low on one of the top young talents in the game.

    • Urban

      I like Hudson, but the dude turns 37-years-old next season, he is a righty who throws about 90 and hasn’t pitched in the AL in quite a while, and never in the AL East. He’s the type of pitcher who could turn into Javy Vazquez, the bad version, while Yankee fans then watch another top pitching prospect come of age on the Braves.

      No interest in Jurrjens either. Soft-tossing righty pitchers coming straight from the NL are a pass. Might as well re-sign Freddy Garcia and not give anything up in the process.

      • CMP

        Exactly right.

        Expecting Tim Hudson to come to the AL east and be anything more than a number 3/4 type pitcher is asking for trouble. Add about a run to his ERA and that’s what he’d be. You can’t be fooled by an NL pitchers gaudy numbers.

        • Truth

          I usually am all over the might al east argument but the no east isn’t exactly a cake walk

        • Truth

          I usually am all over the might al east argument but the nl east isn’t exactly a cake walk.

    • Mick

      I would either buy low or not at all on Braves pitchers. It seems as if they have a tendency to fall apart after leaving Atlanta. Outside of Maddox and Glavine, what Atlanta pitchers have had sustained success after leaving via trade or free agency?

  • http://twitter.com/andrewjcalagna Drew

    you guys really slacked off today. 2 articles? smh..

    • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

      Well you know…They’re not going to post articles just to post articles. It’s all about quality, not quantity, here at RAB……..I think

      • Rainbow Connection

        Thanks for explaining. Good thing that humor is never lost on you. Please don’t reproduce.

        • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

          You’re welcome. Now go back to trolling about CC’s weight and whatever it is you troll about.

          • Pat D

            Don’t fret, Jesse. If you’re real lucky, he’ll start targeting your posts at every opportunity.

  • http://twitter.com/rebeccapbp Asha Greyjoy

    I actually can’t stand Thanksgiving food.

    Love the holiday, hate the meal.

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

      I love Thanksgiving food so much I consider tryptophan to be a narcotic.

    • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

      How do you hate Thanksgiving food?! Haha.

      I mean, I suppose turkey can be a little dry and bleh sometimes. But ham? Stuffing? Baked mac? Sister Shubert rolls? Sweet potato pie? Apple pie?

      • Pat D

        I recently had my first ever taste of pumpkin pie at 30 years old.

        The reason for this was simple. I assumed pumpkin pie would just taste like mush. Sure, it looks good, but a lot of foods look good and taste bad. The reason I made this assumption was due to the times I’d make jack-o-lantern’s as a kid. The insides always struck me as mush, so I figured it must taste the same way.

        So after eating that pumpkin pie, I’m happy to report that my assumptions were 100% accurate. Pumpkin pie tastes like mush.

        • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.
        • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

          Haha, that’s why you gotta eat sweet potato pie instead.

        • RetroRob

          Pumpkin pie is awesome. Need some now!

    • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

      I love Thanksgiving food. What’s wrong with turkey, gravy, mashed potatoes, stuffing, and cranberry sauce?

    • https://twitter.com/richardiurilli Richard Iurilli

      I wouldn’t mind ditching the turkey for extra mashed potatoes and cranberry sauce (*real* cranberry sauce, not the stuff in a can).

      • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

        Why not just go with fried chicken? Don’t even need to have a full chicken, just get a bunch of legs and wings – maybe breast and thighs if you like those – and fry the shit out of em.

    • FIPster Doofus

      Turkey sucks. The rest is good.

      • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

        Try the Wild Turkey. Works for me.

        • Pat D

          That’s always been my dad’s drink of choice. Says it’s completely better than JD.

  • Thomas Cassidy

    Phillies just got Wigginton from Colorado for nothing. Not a bad trade at all.

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

      Wiggy and I have something in common. We both can play any position on the infield, and play it badly.

      • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

        Ok, if we moved Nunez in a good deal, I could probably get down with Uribe. How about the RF vacancy?

        • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

          Beltran or the Cuban kid.

          • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

            I’m definitely intrigued by Cespedes, but we gotta see the guy play baseball first.

            I think we’d be better off with Swisher and Jackson/Darvish/Beuhrle than Beltran and Hudson. You know you’re not going to get a full season out of Beltran. Additionally, Hudson doesn’t seem like a great fit for an infield defense that is decent, but not stellar.

            • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

              If you want to win in 2012, Beltran and Hudson give you a better chance. I don’t love Beltran due to his health history, but when he plays he’s every bit as good as Swisher, maybe better. Hudson is by far the best pitcher of the ones you named.

              • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

                What if I want the Yanks to win in 2012, 2013, 2014 and the rest of the decade?

                As far as the upcoming season, it would suck to have to try to replace Beltran’s production when he misses his chunk of games.

      • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

        Damn, wrong thread.

  • Play Da’rel Scott Now

    Chris Johnson sucks bawlz. 1 yard per carry? Is that what 30million causes?

    • MannyGeee

      Please. That fuck stick is killing fantasy for me this season….

  • candyforstalin

    can someone write a just say no to tim hudson article? please?

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

      Why?

      • http://www.twitter.com/steveh_mandaura Steve H.

        Maybe because the left side of the infield isn’t great defensively? Otherwise I’m not sure why you wouldn’t want Hudson.

        • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

          http://www.fangraphs.com/stats.....#pitchtype

          There’s your #2 behind CC. Swish and Nunez? Maybe a slight overpay, so lets expand the deal to include one of their bullpen lefties and we’ll kick in a 3rd player. Done.

          • mbonzo

            I have some trepidation about trading for a player who will be 37 next season. He’s great, but trading Nunez and Swisher for Hudson at 37/38 with $18m kinda scares me.

          • CMP

            Tim Hudson at age 37, a finesse righty who can barely touch 90, who strikes out less league average in the NL to a team in the AL east with weak infield defense??

            That has Javy Vasquez, Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown and Jaret Wright written all over it. Maybe 5 years ago it would have made sense but not in 2012.

            They fleeced Cashman a few years ago. This would be the 2nd time unless you’re giving up only B prospects.

        • Urban

          I do not have a problem at all if Hudson shows up on the Yankees. I do have a problem with the price to be paid, which will almost assuredly be more than the Yankees should consider.

          Things to give pause:

          Value lost vs. value gained — I’ve already seen discussions of Swisher and Nunez for Hudson, and in some places, Swisher, Nunez and a prospect for Hudson. Really? That shows how some Yankees fans totally undervalue Swisher, who delivered 7.9 fWAR over the past two years compared to Hudson’s 6.4 fWAR during the same period. Advantage Swish. Throw in Hudson’s transistion to the AL East, and the gap is likely even wider. So the Yankees are already behind on the deal on a straight swap, yet some also want to include Nunez and/or a prospect. N/G.

          Regression — This covers two areas. First is a regression caused by switching leagues. When are people going to seriously start factoring the impact on pitchers moving from the NL to the AL and the AL East, especially ones who are righthanded and don’t have overpowering fastballs? I have no doubt that Hudson can pitch in the AL. He is a skilled pitcher. He’s just not going to put up NL numbers in the AL. Figure on an ERA of 4.00 and above. That’s no longer a #2. The second part of the regression would hit him even if he stays in the NL. His 3.7 fWAR last year was the highest he’s delivered since 2007. He’s also put up some lower BABIP the last couple of seasons, which is another possible red flag.

          Age — This could easily be part of the regression discussion. If the Yankees keep him for two seasons, that’ll take Hudson through 38 years old. He could easily drop a mile or two on his fastball, and then Houston, we’ve really got a problem. Hudson’t peak years were in Oakland, Swisher is 31 and probably produced a year in 2011 that was at the lower range of his expectations, so some improvement is possible and probably likely. Nunez is young, athletic and going into his second season in the majors. Good chance he improves.

          Replacement cost — So if Swisher is traded, the expectation is the Yankees go out and sign Beltran. Okay, but that’ll be probably be at least a 3/45 deal taking him through age 37, and he’s a player coming off microfracture surgery. He’d be replacing a player who is along with Cano the most durable player on the Yankees. The Yankees will then also need to replace Nunez, who will probably end up playing in about 80 games this year if still with the Yankees. Not sure who that player(s) is and the additional cost.

          I’m not trying to rain on the Hudson parade here. He’s a fine pitcher, and if things fall in place I can even see him being a solid #3 next year. I can just easily see him as a #4.

          The devil is in the details here. The cost of aquiring him. Yet if the Yankees are truly looking for a #2, then they should look at packaging players for whoever that player is. It’s not Hudson.

          His WAR w

      • candyforstalin

        because he would be a 36yo, soft-throwing low-strikeout rhp coming from a pitchers’ park in the nl (where he thrives) to an extreme hitters’ park in the al. 9m next year + 9m option in 2013 (5-and-10 rights). no, thanks.

  • http://yankeeanalysts.com Matt Imbrogno
    • http://yankeeanalysts.com Matt Imbrogno

      Safe, btw.

  • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

    Luckily the Yankees are smarter than the us stay-at-home GMs…most of the time anyway. They need to continue developing their own pitching – especially when you’re working with guys that possess stud potential like Banuelos and Betances.

    I know “potential” is just another way of saying that you haven’t done anything yet, but every stud, all-star and Hall of Famer starts off with potential. The whole “we should trade for No. 3 starter because our prospects haven’t done anything yet” mindset is ridiculous.

    If the right player comes along for the right price, pull the trigger. If not, just wait. I feel like a lot of fans, more or less, just want the Yankees to make a trade for the sake of making a trade.

    • RetroRob

      Since Cashman was given greater control, and even more so since the Steinbrenner brothers have taken over, Cashman has shown patience.

      I do not expect him to jump and make an irrational move.

  • Leo

    Giants can’t get anything done tonight. So many dropped passes and punts and all they have is a field goal to show for it.

    And just when I said that, Nicks just made an awesome catch. If they can’t get a TD on this drive….

    • Leo

      And I take back what I said. Cruz!!!

  • Leo

    Damn what a drive. Too bad the defense couldn’t stop it and sucks that it resulted in a TD though. Comeback incoming?

  • Ethan

    This is why I’m happy to not be a big football fan. It would be absolutely brutal if this one hurt as bad as a late inning Yankees loss and lasted for a week!

    • Leo

      You and me both. I’m a casual football fan and while it sucks, I can usally get over losses very quickly. It’d be bad for my blood pressure if I was as totally into it as baseball.

      And with that, is this the start of another Giants late season collapse?

      • RetroRob

        It’s starting to look ugly. : -)

  • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

    Any predictions on what next year’s payroll will be for the Yankees?

    I say it’ll be no higher than $212, and remember, last year’s payroll was $202M.

    • mbonzo

      According to Cots they’re at $173m, add arbitration for Gardner, Hughes, Joba, Logan, and Robertson I say we’re still slightly short of $180m. Add a bench of Jones and Chavez and we’re at $185m. $212m means the Yanks would spend $27m for the rotation spots. Thats not saying the Yanks don’t spend it another way, but I don’t think they’ll come close to $212m. I think last year’s $202m is probably where they max out.

      • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

        Well, here’s how I figured it out.

        I used Cots and their $173M like you said, then I used the MLBTR educated guess on the arb guys (Gardner, Hughes, Joba, Logan, Robertson, Martin (not sure if you forgot him, but they’re most certainly willing to bring him back, no?) and they equate the Arb guys salaries to be 17.8M which then makes the payroll to approximately $190.8M. I figured they’d bring back Garcia at $5M next season, they have mutual interest. That’s my opinion with his 2012 salary, but he had a very solid season next year after earning $1M last year. Also, I think Chavez and Jones would make a total of $4M. Those guys make the payroll equal $199.8M, approximately.

        Now, with Darvish, sure it’s 50-50 as of now if he’ll post or not, but let’s assume he will. There were 5 agents who were asked what his contract and posting fee would be. Throwing posting fee out the window, since it’s not part of the payroll (I know it may be a factor in the decision making in the end), the agents concluded he’d get a 6 year deal worth $75M. Now, we can argue how the contract will be built, but let’s just say the AAS are the same every season. That means it’s 12.5M a year. If they sign him to that, their payroll will be $212.3M. I know I said “No higher than $212M” but you get the idea.

        • mbonzo

          I did forget about Martin. Even with him I can’t imagine the Yanks will have to give $17.8m in arbitration. Gardner, Robertson, and Martin will see a few million dollars in bonuses but $17.8m seems insanely high. Also, I don’t see the Yankees bringing back Garcia for $5m and also signing Darvish. They’ll certainly do something in terms of starting pitching, but theres no need to begin the season with 6 starting pitchers.

          • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

            http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....nkees.html

            There’s where I got the estimated salaries. Logically, they all make sense.

            Martin made $4M last year, so I’m sure a $2.7M raise isn’t a stretch by the imagination. I mean, he handled the pitching staff wonderfully and he was decent with the bat, not ideal, but not terrible overall.

            Gardner made a couple hairs over $500K last season, he does deserve his projected salary of $3.3M because of his defense, speed, and ability to get on base. Besides, he’s 13th in all of MLB in fWAR the last two seasons.

            Hughes and Joba are interesting. Hughes is estimated to make $3M next year after making $2.7M. After his shitty season it’s a bit questionable why he’d get a raise, albeit a very slight one. Joba is estimated to make $1.7M in ’12 after making $1.4M this year, again it’s a small raise, but with his TJS and some inconsistencies, it would be fair for someone to question if he gets a raise at all.

            And finally the other two relievers, Robertson and Logan. Robertson is estimated to make $1.5M after making a hair over $460K last year. He definitely deserves a raise, and I think he deserves a bigger raise, but apparently the Yankees would get by with paying him just that small raise. And Logan, he’s estimated to make $1.6M after making $1.2M. Some people can’t stand the guy, but he had good peripherals, I know he wasn’t great against lefties, so maybe he deserves a slight raise.

            I know this all may sound like nitpicking, but in this case we’re trying to look for the exact total payroll.

            As for Darvish and Garcia. Theoretically, the Yankees could sign Garcia and have him as a long man if they sign Darvish as well. Personally, I don’t see this happening because he had a very solid season in 2011, but he did say at the beginning of the year that he’d be willing to pitch out of the bullpen. But one would think that he is deserving of a guaranteed spot in a rotation, and maybe he feels the same way.

  • David Ortiz’s Dealer

    AJ is the devil you know or in this case Larry Rothchild knows, unless he thinks “lost cause” I’d stay with AJ if only because trading him would require still paying him and or getting an equally bigger project in return.