Dec
26
Fan Confidence Poll: December 26th, 2011
By2011 Record: 97-65 (855 RS, 657 RA, 102-60 pythag. record), won AL East, lost to Tigers in ALDS
Top stories from last week:
- A number of pitching options came off the market when Gio Gonzalez was traded to the Nationals, John Danks signed an extension with the White Sox, and the Rangers won Yu Darvish’s negotiating rights with a $51.7M bid. The Yankees only bid $15-17M for Darvish, and the Athletics wanted Jesus Montero and top pitching prospects for Gio. Roy Oswalt is only seeking a one-year deal now, and several teams are kicking the tires on A.J. Burnett.
- The Yankees reportedly considered pursuing Carlos Beltran earlier this offseason, but he signed with the Cardinals last week. The Indians and some other clubs have interest in Nick Swisher, and the Yankees haven’t made much progress towards a new deal with Andruw Jones.
- Joba Chamberlain‘s rehab from Tommy John surgery continues to go well.
- The Yankees were hit with a $13.9M luxury tax bill for the 2011 season.
- For the third straight year, Montero topped Baseball America’s list of the top ten Yankees prospects.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
86 Comments»
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The Mason Williams Watch
Let’s see, in order of appearance:
1. No pitching upgrades to the fly by the seat of their asses in the 2011 rotation
2. No more offense to the lineup that was three deep in October
3. A middle reliever is on his way back from TJ!!!W00t!!111
4. Less money being spent!!!1111!!! More in the pockets of Goldman Sachs!
5. The best news here – from a guy who got all of 2 PAs in October. But at least Russell Martin can frame pitches!
2 and 3 = bitching for the sake of bitching.
Even #1 ignores that young pitchers tend to improve with experience, and the Yankees have several young pitchers. #4 ignores that they’re spending less because they have cheap internal options. #5 implies catching defense isn’t important.
Not one sound point… not at all surprising.
Happy Holidays!!!
LMAO!!
Do you find any of BEL’s points to be particularly sound?
Yes. Just number 1. I think your underscoring what it takes to develop young pitching. I think it was Mr.Plank who nailed it when he said its best to develop young pitching in the 4 and 5 spots of the rotation with a strong 1 to 3. Right now if someone in the Yankees’ rotation fails they are throwing developing young pitching directly into the fire something that didn’t work very well 2008.
I don’t remember saying that specifically, but that seems like a reasonable strategy for this team at the current time.
You did say it I forget in what thread good comments stick.
I think you are overselling the difference between different rotation spots. Whether you’re in the #1 or #4 spot you’re pitching every 5 days (and usually the #5 too, though can be skipped occasionally). If you’re in the rotation… you’re in the fire.
I agree that it’s better to break guys in at the back of the rotation, but for the team more than for the pitcher. Clearly it’s better to have better pitchers #1-3 than worse pitchers… regardless of anything else.
I am pretty confused by the 2008 reference. Wang, Moose, and Pettitte were three veteran starters fronting that rotation. That season they did break in two young guys at the back of the rotation behind a strong 1-3… and it failed. Just one example, though.
The Yankees also have their young starters with a good amount of AAA and even MLB experience. Nova and Hughes are already fairly broken in. Noesi had almost a full season in MLB, though used sparingly. Phelps has 170 IP in AAA. Warren has 152 IP in AAA. They’re not relying on a couple of guys with like 150 total MiLB innings like they did in 2008. They’ve got several options with MLB and AAA experience. If a couple fail… there are a couple more right behind them… and then a couple of more behind them.
I do agree that’s the most legitimate of the 5 gripes, by the way. Just think it’s overdone.
I agree it’s a bit overdone, but also think that it’s closer to reality that AJ is AJ, Hughes doesn’t return 2010 and no Garcia 2011 replay. So now they are looking at 2 maybe 3 spots to fill with all rookies. I guess there is the July trading deadline, but prices seem just as high as in the winter.
Between AJ, Garcia, and Hughes I am willing to bet one will be at least a #5 starter. Even in the case you describe one or two might be decent back-end options. This is why I’m saying that only a couple of things need to go right behind CC.
I found one and a half of them to be sound.
All factual though, this is a team build for post season failure
Yeah, because the post-season is predictable…
8+
GM + organization + patience + 97 win team returning + time to upgrade if reasonable the rotation and bench. Teams kicking the tires on Brunett equals 10+ waiting for the younger talent to emerge not all just some, priceless. Money to change paths at the moment a great deal may become known.
Seven. And if I ever have a son, I will name him that.
I tried my wife laughed and said no.
10 for the playoffs.
8 for the WS.
Hoping an in-house pitcher puts us over the top or a July pickup if no one has dominated AAA.
Looking forward to Jesus giving us a Migalbert Pujera bat for 475K.
Seems like they’re content with filling the rotation from their stable of young starters. With their track record over the last 15 years, I’m pretty skeptical they’re gonna be successful.
On the other hand, there’s still 3 days of Chanukah left so maybe someone will get Cashman a LOOGY.
Not sure the track record 15 years ago with different personnel in place is too relevant today. Hughes and Joba haven’t had the early success that we all hoped for, but the current regime has acquired and developed a lot of pitching talent.
but the current regime has acquired and developed a lot of pitching talent.
————————
They have?? If so where are they
IPK, Coke, Cole, Melancon
Ironic that they’re all on other teams which is why I’m sure you mentioned those specific pitchers.
Yep. That’s the joke.
Hughes, Joba, IPK, Nova, Robertson, Melancon, Banuelos, Betances, Arodys, Noesi, Phelps, Warren, DJ Mitchell, Brett Marshall, Bryan Mitchell, Phil Coke… they’ve also acquired CC, Garcia, Colon, Logan, Wade…
That’s a lot of pitching talent… a lot of which is still in the minors due to the timeline of the current regime. Not developing an ace in a matter of a few years doesn’t mean they’ve failed.
It amazes me that when the Rays turn a top 5 pick into a back-end guy like Niemann who might get them 1 WAR per season they’re hailed as geniuses by Yankees fans. When the Yankees develop a decent starter who can get them 1+ WAR per season it’s hailed as a total failure demonstrating incompetence to the highest degree.
When the Jays trade away Napoli for a reliever it’s somehow shrewd, but if the Yankees trade a decent prospect for an All-Star-caliber-veteran they have no eye for talent.
The Rays also have done a good job developing their pitching. But I know I know every pick they had was a number 1 pick.
I am not really commenting on the overall job they’ve done with developing pitching. Just that they’re sometimes lauded for Niemann… who is a back-end scrub… and the Yankees are ripped apart for Phil Hughes… who has been really volatile but on average sort of a back-end scrub. (Same goes for Wade Davis… who I find pretty fringy.)
I actually think it’s specifically because the Rays have put together a good homegrown team that they get free passes on every player, whereas the Yankees get ripped for any player that doesn’t become a total stud because of an especially unrealistic fan base coupled with their “buying” talent.
The Rays have some definite successes outside of top picks, but you take Longoria, Price, Delmon Young (Garza + Bartlett), BJ Upton and replace them with picks in the 20s and I would bet they’re a middle-of-the-pack team at best during this recent run. That might change in the next few years as Moore, Desmond Jennings, and others come up. It’s really tough to continually recycle and acquire talent if you can’t re-sign your studs, but would be very impressive to see Tampa do it.
I actually think it’s specifically because the Rays have put together a good homegrown team that they get free passes on every player,
“That’s true since they hit on those guys you mentioned they do get a pass on other players that don’t pan out/are average”
“whereas the Yankees get ripped for any player that doesn’t become a total stud because of an especially unrealistic fan base coupled with their “buying” talent.”
Valid point but it comes with the territory whether it’s wrong or right.
“It’s really tough to continually recycle and acquire talent if you can’t re-sign your studs, but would be very impressive to see Tampa do it.”
it would be impressive to see them do it. Of course only time will tell if they can continue to scout and develop as good as they have been over the past several yrs.
Since you brought it up
Perhaps the Rays get lauded more for Niemann (how is that not a strawman, by the way) than the Yankees get lauded for Hughes because Niemann is the 5-6th best homegrown starter the Rays currently have. Hughes is arguably the best (2nd best if not) the Yankees have developed.
Who is the Yankees 5-6th best homegrown starter they have? Whoever you say, they aren’t as good as Niemann.
You aren’t addressing my point. I literally said that the Rays have developed players, people credit them even for the lousy players they develop.
You are actually agreeing with me, but because you have no idea what I said you think you are disagreeing.
IPK (traded for a proven CF… Rays might trade for some veterans if they had the $ to), Wang (signed same year Shields was drafted… injury was a freak thing that could have happened to anyone), Nova, Banuelos (if you’re going to count Matt Moore), Hughes, Noesi, Betances, Phelps, Warren…
I would make the case that all of those guys have a good shot at being as good as Niemann… who isn’t good. Niemann is better than Wade Davis, though, who is their 6th SP. Wade Davis is awful.
David Price was also a #1 overall pick. Dude didn’t spend more than 57 IP at any level… was a full-time MLB pitcher after about a year in the minors. Not sure how much credit the Rays get there.
I absolutely understood addressed your point. You are arguing about the disparity in how The Rays and The Yankees are perceived for developing Niemann and Hughes respectively when they are similar pitchers. (Again, this was an argument that I’ve never heard, but you brought up out of thin air to argue against.)
The Rays have developed and kept many pitchers and one of their lesser pitchers developed into a back end guy. All of the people in front of him (Shields, Price, Hellickson, and Moore) are drafted and developed by the Rays. The Yankees haven’t drafted, developed, and kept any players better than Hughes (maybe Nova) and that is why they (Yankees and Rays, not Hughes and Niemann) are perceived differently for developing a similar pitcher.
It would be like choosing a team with crappy catchers, and saying it’s unfair they get knocked for developing their starter when Cervelli has the same value.
Re: Banuelos/Moore.
I counted Moore because he ended the year as one of their starting pitchers and is going into this year as one of their starters. He also started game one of the ALDS, by the way. Do you think it’s fair to put Banuelos and Moore in the same category? I don’t.
No one mentioned the Rays until you started bitching at people who compared the Yankees skills in development unfavorably to the Rays.
Are you also mad at Yankees fans who think the Mets are better?
I haven’t heard anyone seriously say the Mets are better than the Yankees since… I don’t know when. Can’t remember the last time.
Not developing an ace in a matter of a few years doesn’t mean they’ve failed.
A few yrs try 15 not 4-5 but 15 that’s a long time don’t you think. Most of the guys you named are on different teams. The kids in the minors are too early to tell and we know what has happened with Hughes and Joba.
Why are guys like Oppenheimer responsible for their failures of guys who had their jobs before them? Would you appreciate being blamed for mistakes made by the person who had your job before you did?
We know that Joba and Hughes haven’t had instant success in their early 20s. They’re still in their mid-20s, haven’t even hit free agency, and both potentially big contributors to the 2012 Yankees.
Two examples doesn’t mean anything, though. WAY too small a sample. Nor does not developing an ace… if the Yankees develop a bunch of good SPs in the next few years but no ace, who cares? Aces would be better… but putting together a good rotation is the goal.
“Why are guys like Oppenheimer responsible for their failures of guys who had their jobs before them? Would you appreciate being blamed for mistakes made by the person who had your job before you did?”
Of course not but at the same time we just can’t sit here and say don’t judge Cash,an on these yrs but just look at the last 5.
“if the Yankees develop a bunch of good SPs in the next few years but no ace, who cares? Aces would be better… but putting together a good rotation is the goal.”
Hopefully they do because acquiring arms through free agency or trades is getting harder and harder.
Cashman is not in charge of drafting or player development. He oversees those people. If those people fail, he needs to change them. That’s what he did. So far the results are good.
Beginning of the Cashman era the Yankees had good talent in the farm. Some of that was from before he took over, but not all of it.
“acquiring arms through free agency or trades is getting harder and harder.”
When was it easy?
It was easier back then than it is right now.
if the Yankees develop a bunch of good SPs in the next few years
Do you think this is going to happen? What is a bunch?
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/if
Classy.
And it would be relevant, too, if your visions for the team going forward didn’t involve developing a bunch of good SPs over the next few years. You have been saying it all off-season that the Yankees have Nova, Noesi, Warren, Phelps, Mitchell, Banuelos, and Betances waiting in the wings, ready to step up.
You aren’t treating it as an ‘if’, you are treating it as a ‘when’, which is unrealistic.
If that happens, the Yankees will be fine. It won’t happen though. TINSTAAPP. When it doesn’t, the Yankees are screwed.
“You aren’t treating it as an ‘if’, you are treating it as a ‘when’, which is unrealistic.”
To be fair he is not the only one here who does that a lot people do. Sometimes it feels like people here not only want the Yankees to win, but they have to win with home grown talent like that shit proves something.
@mustang It’s not just on here it’s everywhere. We all want to see the kids do well but ppl talk about the depth as if it’s a lock that they step in a perform. You have to assume that some of those guys will get hurt others will be ineffective
7 heading down to 6 and I really fear an ugly season ahead. Rolling the dice again on the “CC and lets pray” rotation maybe one time too many.
Not that I’m hoping for it, but I wonder how fast people will jump of the Cashman ship if the AAA kids still can’t find the strike zone, the league figures out Montero and the rotation goes south.
5…..And I was going to vote 4 but I decided to cut them a break.
I don’t blame management for not spending this season. They have spent $960 million since 07 with the hopes their was a few championships in this club. Also, I like the young guys the Yanks have in Nunez, Montero, Hughes and the potential big leaguers in Manny, Warren, Delin, Noessi, Mason, Culver etc etc. Player development/scouting cost $$ too; may as well see what these kids can do.
I simply do not believe in the toughness of this current team. 4-12 in xtra inning games, 21-24 in one run games and very few (that I can recall) come from behind wins. Let’s not forget this club had bases roaded wih one out twice in Game 5 in this seasons LDS and managed 1 run on a walk.
But the real issue is clearly that giant question mark that is starting pitching. CC is a horse but in the last couple of seasons has clearly worn down come Sept/Oct. Ivan impressed us all in 11 but so did Hughes his rookie year. Need more of a sample size before I have complete confidence in young Supernova. Hughes will be a major X-factor for this club this season. It is clear they need depth and he will be relied on as evidenced by the lack of arms being brought in this offseason. We all know what we will get from AJ; 12-11 5+ ERA. Then they have the wild card in Freddy and unproven arms in Noessi (who is doing well in winter ball), Warren, Mitchell, Betances.
I’m sure they will manage another 90+ win season but if the post season is in the cards for the Yanks can’t see anything different happening than what we witnessed last season or the season before.
5. Next year 2 very good team will not make the playoffs. Two of angels rangers, yanks, sox and rays.
Four of those teams can make the playoffs with the new wildcard.
I thought that was 2013? Two wild card teams and a one game playoff is like a coin toss in sudden death OT in NFL
No, they’re going to implement this year. Hasn’t been made official yet, but when the new CBA was announced Selig said it was pretty much a done deal. The announcement will come in March.
Wild card format is scary for yanks. Throw CC, win and he doesn’t return to late in next round. Or if CC is unavailable because he pitched in games 161-162, you could see a Freddy/haren, AJ/Lester Freddy/hellickson matchup.
Which is exactly why they’ve implemented this new Wild Card. There’s now incentive to win the division. Not only do you avoid a one-game elimination, you can set your rotation (theoretically).
If it´s true teams are kicking tires on AJ and he gets traded then maybe NY makes a run for a SP such as FAs Oswalt or Jackson or thru a trade, Garza ? Otherwise it looks like CC, Aj, Nova,Hughes and Garcia with Noesi in the wings. Certainly not the worst rotation in baseball but would it even place in the top 10 ? Mid season 2012 should be a point of interest for Yankee fans.
Granderson is more than likely not going to repeat his 2011 season. One wonders what Arod and Jeter will provide offensively in 2012 ? Will Tex hit .275 or better ? Will Gardner find consistency at the plate ? In Swisher´s walk year will he deliver big time or press for half the season in an attempt to receive a big payday ?
Right now I still see the 2012 Yanks as a 88-90 win team.
Granderson can’t be expected to repeat 2011, it’s just not fair.
Tex BA difference is 2 singles a week against the shift.
ARod should be healthy.
Freddy may not throw 100 Innings.
AJ is AJ.
Robertson will be good. Not that good, expectation is unfair.
Soriano will be better.
Montero’s bat is ready but how will he handle NY pressure when he has a slump?
“ARod should be healthy.”
LOL!
Their rotation definitely has the potential to be in the top 10. There’s a lot of volatility in their rotation, but a couple of things go right behind a healthy CC… and they should be top 10.
The bottom half of Buster Onley’s recent top 10 rotation rankings is littered with question marks and rotations that have one or two studs with a bunch of junk behind them. From 5 down I think could easily wind up with worse rotations than the Yankees (especially accounting for level of competition and ballpark).
I went with a 7. I am for not throwing anybody currently on the market any big $, and have no problem with them not spending any $ thus far on guys that are off the board this year. I do place blame at the foot of the “ownership group” for the bloated A-Rod and also the Soriano deals. I place some blame on Cash $ for not developing the front line starting pitching we need to go on another run.
With all that said, I will take our combo of ownership and GM over any other one in the game at the present time.
I would not even be mad if they did some cost cutting moves (anything they can this season) to put themselves in a position to land Cole Hamels next year or if somebody of extreme talent pops up on the trade front.
What # is the “luxury tax” threshold this year?
It’s $178MM with a 42.5% tax on everything over (for the Yankees)
Thanks. I think it would be a cool post or subject for somebody to outline what the Yanks would have to (or could possibly) do to field a team and get under that #.
You mean for this year?
I would imagine it would involve doing things like trading AJ Burnett and paying most of his salary (save around 4 million/year, maybe), trading Hughes, Chamberlain, Martin, Maybe Swisher and Gardner.
It wouldn’t be pretty.
All of that wouldn’t even get it done. They would have to trade Granderson or Cano, or trade Teixeira and money to someone.
It’s a lead pipe cinch they’re already over $200 million. There’s nothing they can do THIS year to avoid the luxury tax. They would be over the threshold even if they took ARod’s contract off the payroll.
Considering the Yankees have historically paid out almost 85% of all luxury tax dollars collected ($215 million in total)since 1997, it should just be called what it was intended to be: the Yankees Tax.
I’m still at a 6. I feel okay for next season, but going forward, they have an old, expensive left side of the IF. They can’t do anything about it. The new CBA hurts their ability to get talent going forward. They also lose points for their goal of slashing payroll. They need to rely on getting league average pitching out of 3 of Noesi, Betances, Banuelos, Warren, Phelps, and Mitchell in addition to Nova pitching like last year. That seems unlikely.
This luxury tax is nothing. MLB ownership will never open their books let alone the yanks. Selig and other teams know the yanks are raking it in. They can double the payroll and still be profitable.
I wouldn’t say double, but I have no doubt they are insanely profitable.
“Yankees Unlikely To Make An Offer To Kuroda”
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-yo.....-on-kuroda
Confidence level dropping fast captain!!!!!!
It was never the reason I liked the Yankees, but it was always a positive that Steinbrenner never bitched and moaned about losing money like the other owners. He knew he was making money, he was proud of it, and he used a lot of it to improve the teams.
“We simply don’t have the money to pay him.”
I guess the Yankees are now just like every other team with lying owners. Rats.
That disappoints me. This brain trust decides to sign ARod for 275/10, Teixeira 180/8, and a handful of other long term contracts and now they suddenly decide they’re going to save a buck on the rest of the team. Its inconsistent, it gives away their competitive advantage and it doesn’t pass the smell test that they don’t have money to pay anyone. This is not the Steinbrenner way of doing things.
These clowns are charging the highest seat prices in MLB, are getting 3.8 million in attendance each year and have a wildly profitable cable network. They are printing their own money. I’m waving the BS flag on this. If this is not some Cashman effort at deceiving the market, this is a recipe for the CBS days all over again.
We will see they try doing the same thing in 2008 and the minute they didn’t make the playoffs they started buying everything that moved.
Bottom-line the minute the product on field starts to suck those high prices seats will stop selling. We will then see about not having money.
And look who we are talking about can anyone really sees the Yankees passing on someone like Cain or Hamels as free agents because they don’t have the money.
I`m assuming NY has to unload AJ before they would consider bringing another experienced SP onboard. It would cost NY about 12 million or so to land Kuroda for 1 year which is about what NY would save if AJ is traded. Plus it creates a logjam with Phelps, Noesi, Warren etc.
There is no way they could trade AJ and only eat 4.5 MM. More likely would be eating 24MM, the new team paying 4.5 each of the next 2 years and getting next to nothing in return.
Agree 100%. No one is trading for AJ if they have to pay him $12 million per year. The Yankees are gonna have to eat about $20-$22 million of the $33 left on his contract to even have a chance to move him so at best they could save $5-6 million per year for 2 years.
The best reason to dump AJ is the Yankees have at least 3 better option (Noesi, Phelps and Warren ) with potentially 2 more by midseason (ManBan and Betances) all of whom have something that Burnett doesn’t and that’s the potential to more than a just a lousy stinking bum.
I meant 12 million over 2 years . 6 million per.
6. The offense and bullpen are that of a 97-win team, but the starting rotation is not. It could be but there are too many uncertainties. I’ll definitely go up if Hughes Nova and even AJ improve on their 2011. Otherwise, between the financial austerity talks and risk aversion, this sounds like a couple of years of transition.
April 20, 2012 – 100th Birthday of Fenway Park
Will commemorate 100 years of history at Fenway Park with a large-scale pre-game ceremony. The Red Sox will play the New York Yankees, same team (then the New York Highlanders) they played on April 20, 1912. Both teams will wear 1912 throwback uniforms
CAN’T WAIT.
Wait, really? Do you have a link so I can post it?
http://mlb.mlb.com/bos/fenwaypark100/events.jsp
Fenway was opened on Hitler’s birthday?
Coincidence?
Yes.
Extremely aggravated and fed up with Cashman. Surprised more fans aren’t outraged. He has yet to be honest with the fans. He keeps saying he wants pitching but is not willing to trade or sign anyone…huh??? At least be honest with the fans…they have shown little desire to acquire a pitcher!!!
I’m down to 7. The Yankees seem to be serious about not spending money and that has hurt their team for 2012 relative to my earlier expectations.