Dec
18

Report: Winning bid for Darvish is larger than Dice-K’s

By

Via Franz Lids, the high bid for Yu Darvish is larger than the $51.1M the Red Sox paid for the right to negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzaka five years ago. We still don’t know who placed that bid, but late last week we heard that the Blue Jays submitted a bit worth upwards of $50M.

Instant Analysis: Holy cow, assuming this report is true. I figured Dice-K’s general mediocrity would scare teams off of a bid that large, but like we always say, it only takes one team to blow everyone out of the water. Pretty crazy. Apparently the Nippon Ham Fighters are going to take the full four business days before announcing they’ve accepted the high bid, so one way or another we’ll know who won the right to negotiate with Darvish by the end of the Tuesday.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League
  • Brian

    Does this change the thinking that the Jays were the high bidder?

  • RaeGun

    Given that this is true, would you still like the winning bidder to be the Yanks?

    Say the bid is 55M, and the contract (a total guess) is 45M for 5 years.

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

      Insanity.

    • Brian

      The posting fee doesn’t concern me as much as the payroll that counts against the luxury tax.

    • bonestock94

      Yea I would, its not my money. And I’d bet you’re low on the contract.

  • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

    Why on Earth would anyone spend 100M+ on what is essentially a prospect when there are proven MLB pitchers you can have for half that amount?

    Take Edwin Jackson for example, who could be had for 3-4 years around 50M. Way back when, Edwin was the hottest thing in the minors, the #1 prospect in all of baseball according to BA. Like Dice-K, he’s gone on to have a middling MLB career. Why wouldn’t a team take the proven (if unspectacular) MLB product for half the cost over the completely unproven Japanese import?

    • Eric

      Tyrone Sharpton, is that you?

    • Grit for Brains

      Upside to the face

      • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

        Edwin Jackson had a huge upside. They’re called “ceilings” because most players don’t reach them.

        • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

          When Edwin Jackson was the #1 prospect in baseball, how much do you think he would have been posted for in a blind bidding process? How about Strasburg? How about Matt Moore now?

          • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

            Not 100M. They’re pitchers, too much can go wrong as we saw with Strasburg.

            And you’re arguing against yourself. If you would have given Jackson or Strasburg 100M for 5 years, it would have been a bad investment. Matt Moore just signed for 17M, albeit under very different circumstances.

            • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

              They are different circumstances, which is the biggest point. Those other guys don’t get posted to the highest bidder (and Darvish is much more proven), which limits supply of top young talent, especially to teams not drafting near the top. This is even further magnified with the new changes in the CBA.

              • Kevin G.

                I’m not going to lie. I thought one of the Steves was having a conversation by himself.

        • Ted Nelson

          You’re looking at one side of the story. Clemens, Felix, Price, CC… Basically every ace also had a high ceiling. And not reaching your absolute ceiling doesn’t make you a bad pitcher or bad investment.

          Furthermore, proven pitchers aren’t robots. They’re not immune to falling off.

          Think of a pharmaceutical co. They have lots of proven drugs… so why invest millions and millions on new drugs when most will fail? Their patents will expire and there are probably great new drugs out there. Likewise an MLB team needs to replenish its talent and look for the best players.

          And this unproven thing is false anyway. He’s been a pro for a long time. Can’t say exactly how he’ll adjust, but have a pretty good idea about his stuff. If you sign a proven Burnett or Lackey or Zito or trade for a proven Javy… You’re not getting a guarantee there either. There’s an added risk which is significant, but doesn’t make him totally unproven compared to totally proven guys. That’s not reality.

    • Ted Nelson

      Unproven is not a synonym of bad or worse. Everything, bad or good, is unproven before it’s proven.

      • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

        Heh. Joe Saunders is proven, let’s go get him.

  • JamieKage

    The Jays are owned by one of the largest, and richest, communications companies in the world…so that kinda bid makes sense. That coupled with the fact that Darvish wants something like 75 million over 5 years probably did the Yanks in if they’re really serious about getting the payroll down to 189 by 2014 or whatever.

    • Grit for Brains

      I’ve heard the austerity claims but where does the 189 by 2014 idea come from?

      That would mean after you set aside the contracts of CC, A-Rod, Tex an 8 mil player option for Jeter and Arb3 for Gardner. You’d have roughly 100 mil for 20 players….Add on Cano at 20 per and your talking roughly 80 mil for 19 players.

      • JamieKage

        Joel Sherman wrote an article for the NY Post a couple weeks ago, and 189 was the magic number used for 2014 to avoid a luxury tax. This very site did a pretty good job of researching what that would mean exactly last week. It’s a pretty good read if you’ve got a few minutes and they link to the Sherman article it’s based off of.

      • JohnnyC

        It’s explicitly detailed in the new CBA.

  • Jake H

    I don’t think it’s true but if it is it’s pretty insane. Supposedly Darvish wants a contract north of 60 million and how could they not sign him to that. Dice K got 52 million and Darvish over his career was a lot better then Dice K.

  • http://historyandfutility.wordpress.com the Oberamtmann

    What’s the point in waiting the full four days?

    • Jon in CUO

      Every day they wait brings another news cycle of positive coverage for the player and the team. Why wouldn’t Nippon Ham drag it out?

    • The Big City of Dreams

      Some ppl say it’s about tradition and respect.

  • Brian

    A high posting fee makes sense for a bunch of teams (Yanks in particular). The new CBA is going to make it very hard for the Yanks to have SP’s in their prime. The more strict draft slotting system, the spending limits on IFA, and the desire to get cut payroll for 2014 make this one of the last opportunities for teams to get a young pitcher (albeit with question marks) without trading the farm away.

    • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

      Combine this with Darvish being:

      Younger than Dice-K
      Better than Dice-K
      Bigger than Dice-K

      It makes sense that the bid will likely be higher than Dice-K.

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

      All of that may be true, but if I’m spending 100M+ I want to get a sure thing in return, and I don’t think anyone could argue Darvish is certain to perform up to his price tag.

      I’ll take Kuroda for 12M and wait for the 2012 FA class.

      • Brian

        The team isn’t getting any younger – the window is closing. What happens if Cain and Hamels sign extensions?

        It’s not like you’re signing the guy to a 5 year $125M contract. You are signing at 5/75 with the posting fee not counting against payroll. As fans, the payroll is the number that should concern us, the posting fee is Hal’s to worry about.

        • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

          Cain and Hamels both currently pitch for teams that have the money to afford them, so I agree, you can’t just wait for them. Even waiting for CC was a risk, what if, instead of being traded to Milwaukee, he was traded to Anaheim or NYM, or Philly, or some other team that could extend him? Hamels and Cain are already in those kind of places.

        • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

          Yes, and if I’m Hal that posting fee is very real money and I want to make sure its spent wisely and rationally. I don’t think my GM could argue that I’m getting value for that money when he’s not even sure of the pitcher he’s getting. It’s one thing to say what you said on a website, its quite another to be Brian and argue to Hal that 50M+ should be spent on something so speculative.

          As far as the “window closing” I think you’re looking at the team in the wrong places. This team isn’t about Jeter and A-Rod anymore. It’s about Cano, Grandy and Tex, who are all still in their prime.

          • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

            You always hope your money is spent wisely and rationally, but you can never guarantee that, even with guys like Jackson and Kuroda.

            • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

              Right, but you have better odds dealing in the known quantity than the unknown. One one costs 12M (Kuroda), another around 50M (Jackson) and the most speculative one of all will be north of 100M. If I’m a GM who understands he has limited resources to work with (as all do) I’d be better off signing multiple MLB players in the hope one works out for the same money.

              • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

                Jackson’s and Kuroda’s are available every year. Guys like Darvish aren’t, that’s why there is a huge premium attached.

          • JAG

            While I agree that Darvish is a bit of an unknown, let’s not pretend that investing heavily in any pitcher is anything short of a gamble. Hamels could come to New York and be the next Clemens or Sabathia. He could also be the next Kenny Rogers or Carl Pavano. Now, I don’t expect that Hamels will fail to perform in New York specifically or that he will suddenly succumb to a wide array of injuries, but debilitating injury is something that can happen to any pitcher at any time.

            The point is, while Darvish is less of a sure thing than a “proven” MLB pitcher, he’s also been heavily scouted and is as sure of a thing as possible given the circumstances. I’d be perfectly comfortable recommending investing in him.

      • Ted Nelson

        There is no such thing as a sure thing with pitchers.

      • CJ

        $32 million for 3,4,5 Kuroda, AJ, Garcia, is a lot to pay and is not the rotation of a playoff team.

        • Ted Nelson

          Will you please stop with the trolling?

          The Yankees already have the rotation of a playoff team. They were a playoff team, and return largely the same rotation.

    • Ted Nelson

      The Yankees literally have 7 young starters currently in their system with the chance to be very good. They’ve got Marshall, Mitchell, and a few recent picks behind them. (Ramirez, but I assume he might be a reliever.)

      And when was this golden era when the Yankees could get young studs from other teams without trading good prospects for them? Javy and Weaver both came in trades. Irabu even cost Rivera. Most of the free agent SP they’ve picked up were in their 30s.

      The new CBA should restrict the number of quality amateurs they get, but not stop them from getting quality amateurs. Quality players in the draft should still be there, just go in earlier rounds even more than they now do or be there after college. They can still sign IFAs, just not the top ones (which they only did occasionally) and not as many. If they get less amateur talent it’s understandable, but if they get none that’s on them.

      • Brian

        But look at the young pitchers in the system. I’m assuming Man Ban, Betances, Phelps, Warren, Marshall, Mitchell (Bryan) – they got those guys through IFA or going way over slot. They aren’t going to be able to do that anymore.

        The Yanks have done a great job building their farm system, but they’ve still done it with their money. The new CBA is going to limit that advantage.

        • YanksFanInBeantown

          Man Ban cost 450,000 while Warren got 195,000 because he was a college senior so he didn’t have any other option.

        • Ted Nelson

          I disagree with your assumptions both on the new system and those pitchers.

          Players won’t just disappear. They’ll have to come through either the draft or IFA to get to MLB unless an IFA waits several years. HS kids might not get bought out of college as much, but after college they still have to enter the same draft and deal with the bonus pools (unless system is scratched). Yankees still expect to have $4 million to spend in next year’s draft according to Newman. They’ll still have money to spend in IFA too, just not as much.

          Betances was a big bonus 8th rounder. He might still be acquirable earlier in the draft, but certainly harder to come by. The rest were guys they should still have access to. You never know if Nova or some scrub we haven’t heard of was the marginal guy they wouldn’t have signed if they had to choose… but if they scout well they’ll still have access to those guys.

      • CMP

        The only pitchers from that group that project to be anything more than back of the rotation staters are Banuelos and Betances with the later having a relatively low probability of reaching that level. They need a 4 WAR number 2 guy to slot behind CC. The last time they had that was 2009 before AJ fell off a cliff and they won the WS.

        I don’t care how much it cost the to win the post, if they could have gotten Darvish for 5/$50-60 million AND keep all their prospects it should have been a no brainier.

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          Of course you don’t care how much it would have cost to win the post, you’re not the one paying it.

          • CMP

            Last time I checked neither were Yu.

          • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

            I care how much it cost to sign Soriano and I wasn’t the one paying it.

            • CMP

              If the the signing precludes you from signing someone better or from filling a bigger need I would care but since the posting fee doesn’t count against the payroll tax or derail their attempt to get to $189 in 2014 I can’t see the logic of not going all in.
              Just a few years ago Cashman though a $27 million post for a potential number 4/5 starter was a good investment and now $55 million isnt worth a potential ace? Plus that was before they had a new cash cow stadium.

        • Ted Nelson

          They might have already won the bid for Yu. Keep your pants on.

          Nova, Noesia, and Hughes don’t project to be more than back-end starters?

          That they won the WS when AJ had a good regular season proves nothing. The logic there is laughable. AJ and Nova both threw better games against the Tigers than CC… and they still lost. Garcia was as good as CC.
          Pettitte wasn’t a #2 when healthy in 2010? A
          I remember a gem against the Rangers, but maybe I’m wrong.
          A #2 does not mean they win the WS.

          • CMP

            Burnett pitched well in the playoffs too in 2009 otherwise they don’t win the series. The 2010 ALCS was lost because the Yankees starting pitching got hammered by Texas and this past year they got 2 good starts out of 5 games against Detroit and won both times.

            Getting a number 2 doesn’t guarantee anything (thanks again for your input Mr Obvious)but the most important asset to have in baseball is dominant starting pitching

            • Mick

              Sure didn’t help the Phillies.

            • Ted Nelson

              Again… your argument is not logically sound. You can call me names, but that doesn’t make your argument any better.

              A non-#2 starter could have filled in for Burnett and pitched well, allowing the Yankees to win the WS. Burnett didn’t even have 4 fWAR in 2009 anyway.

              In 2010 they did have a #2 starter. Andy Pettitte. Still lost.

              In 2011 neither of those good games came from a 4 fWAR #2 starter. Yet you insist they need a #2 starter. The only SP above 4 WAR on the 2011 team turned in a bad performance in his only full start.

              Offense and pitching depth can be just as important as a couple of dominant starters.

              And if a pitcher is dominant he is not a #2 starter…

              I agree that good starting pitching is a good thing. I just disagree with your insistence that it won’t come internally and that it has to come in the form of one more 4+ fWAR starter. I disagree that pitching is more important than offense in post-season success. I think they are necessarily equally important… though of course you have to combine defense with pitching, which might actually make pitching less important than offense.

  • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

    This whole “Blue Jays won the bid” stuff on Darvish reminds me of that time the media decided to totally fabricated that Cashman offered Montero for Soria (a fireable offense for both GM’s).

    Like in that case, they took one rumor “Yankees offered big package for Soria” and deduced that “big package” must mean Montero, then reported as fact that the Yankees were rebuffed in offering Montero for Soria (which would be a fireable offense for both GM’s).

    Now we have “Blue Jays offer upwards of $50 million”, and the media has deduced that anything north of $50 million must automatically be the winning bid, and 4 days ago, with zero proof, started reporting that the Blue Jays were the winning bidders.

    • TomH

      It’s entirely true that there is “zero proof” of all this. However, this doesn’t make these reports irrational either. For the Jays’ owners, 50 mil. is walk-around money. If they and the Steinbrenners stood at a pier in NY and started throwing in $1000 bills (if there is such a denomination), the Steins would have to quit first. It’s perfectly reasonable for all three rumors I’ve read to be true: re Darvish, re Fielder, and re Beltran.

      • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

        I certainly don’t doubt that the Blue Jays are legit bidders and have a very good chance to win, but 4 days ago (light years in today’s media world) people were reporting it as fact, yet there is still nothing concrete. My comment is more a reflection on the media, not on the Blue Jays.

      • JohnnyC

        While it is true that Rogers Communications has oodles more cash than the Steinbrenners, the Blue Jays represent a relatively insignificant part of its financial dominion. Newscorp is worth tens of billions but sold the Dodgers when they couldn’t make the kind of profit they had originally projected. Paul Beeston is not going to be authorized to tip the scales from nominally profitable to unprofitable by giving out multi-hundred million dollar contracts. Corporate ownership has never worked that way. Only owners obsessed with winning and answerable only to themselves not shareholders would move all their chips to the middle of the table.

    • Accent Shallow

      All I’m getting from this is that Montero is apparently very well endowed.

  • Jose M. Vazquez..

    When Mike presented the poll of how much the bid would be I voted over 50M or between 50-55M. I do not know if he is worth that much but I hope we do not regret it if we lost and Yu becomes s superstar pitcher.

  • http://twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

    Man… I’m with Mike here, I didn’t think the bidding would go this high. To whoever it was on here that I was discussing this with, I think it was a few months ago, you were right and I was wrong (if this rumor is true). I’m surprised the bidding would go that high, but then, I guess that’s the nature of blind bidding processes. All it takes is one team, like Boston last time around or supposedly Toronto this time, to get spooked and think they have to submit a monster bid to win, and all of a sudden you have a winning bid that seems unnecessarily huge.

    In any event, it’ll be interested to see what the various bids are.

  • Ted Nelson

    The RAB article you linked to said the Blue Jays bid between $40 and $50 million. If both rumors are true (and they might not be), I don’t see how the Blue Jays could have won.

    Yu isn’t Dice-K. It’s like saying the deal the Mets gave Johan didn’t work out, so I’m surprised that the Yankees extended CC. Or Wily Mo Pena didn’t work out so well, so I’m surprised the Yankees spent so much on Tabata, Montero, and Sanchez. Just one example of one possible outcome based on a somewhat similar pitcher.

    • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

      Completely agree.

    • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

      People shouldn’t equate them as pitchers, but the transition from NPB to MLB is similar. There are cultural issues, size of the ball, and the best player he ever faced in Japan will be a routine assignment here. You can’t throw 5-6 types of pitches here if 3 of them are sub par, so you have to cut down on your offerings, which means pitching differently. It’s a lot for someone to deal with and shouldn’t be dismissed so easily.

      • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

        Transitioning from college to the minors is also huge. Transitioning from the minors to the majors is also huge. No one is born into the major leagues. The elite talent will rise to the top. Many dominican players deal with many of the same issues transitioning, and again, the cream rises to the top. Dice-K transitioned just fine, putting up 2 solid years then fell apart after that (small frame, carrying a ton of extra weight AL East, the reasons go on and on).

        • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com/ Steve S.

          Not sure where you’re going here. We agree the transition is difficult, but you seem to use that as evidence that he will be fine. And going to one of baseball’s best divisions in the AL East only lessens the odds he will be successful.

          I know that this has been said many times, but its worth repeating. The Yanks have concerns with pitchers translating from the NL West, but Japan is acceptable? With a price tag north of 100M?

          • http://twitter.com/steveh603 Steve H

            Nowhere have I said he will be fine. The Yankees don’t look at guys in the NL West and say “he’s in the NL West, we’re concerned”, that’s just wrong. Is there concern with an NL pitcher transitioning? Sure. Would the Yankees avoid Kershaw simply because of where he pitches? Shit no. Geography and league is simply a circumstance. The Yankees or any team that gets Darvish do not expect him to come here and put up a 1.44 ERA. They know that. They look at the type of pitcher he is, the stuff, the measurables and determine if they think he can succeed in MLB (and whatever division they are in). Being in Japan, or the NL West, or Cuba doesn’t make you incapable of pitching in the NL West.

      • Ted Nelson

        Yeah, but transitioning from being a 16 year old in DR or VE to MLB player is easy, right? Throwing 200 IP annually in MLB for over a decade and remaining one of the best is easy, right?

        • Mister Delaware

          Neither of those sound easy.

        • Joe

          Yeah that was pretty much what he was saying.

          Truly dizzying deductive reasoning there; good to see you’re not simply creating absurd strawmen to argue against.

    • Jamey

      I’ve always thought if Dice-K actually had a work ethic he’d have been worth the cost anyway.

      • JohnnyC

        It was the Red Sox who stopped Matsuzaka from throwing 200 pitch bullpen sessions between starts as he customarily did in Japan. It wasn’t lack of work ethic, it was lack of fastball command. Seems ML hitters don’t chase bad breaking balls to the same extent that NPB hitters did.

        • Jamey

          I recall he refused to participate in their strength & conditioning program, in particular the shoulder one, which is when he made a big stink about them stopping his throwing sessions in response to the criticism he took from the Boston media. Not saying his sessions were B.S, but he certainly wasn’t on the same page about general conditioning, which I suppose might not have entirely been fair on him either considering two guys he shared a clubhouse with at one point were Curt Schilling & Josh Beckett.

          • JohnnyC

            So how is that about his work ethic? I’d laugh at Boston’s conditioning program too.

    • Peter R

      Yes it does throw a wrench in the perceived winner I think. I still don’t think the Yankees won with their modest bid (why would they bother lying…there is nothing to gain) but very possible that “Mystery Team” won again. Could be the Cubs, or the Rangers bid more than reported, or the Jays bid more than reported? Perhaps Seattle? Or the Marlins?

      It could be anyone!!! What happened to my nice narrative!

      • Jamey

        It could have helped them had the modest bid rumors circulated earlier in the day, but by the time that hit the web it seems the other teams had already made their bids. Lying about it effectively would have helped because if the Yankees’ rumored bid was in the 25-30 million range the Blue Jays COULD have felt confident bidding lower. I have to assume for sure they did get the high bid because if they had any suspicions The Yankees sandbagged it & bid in the 50′s there’d be non-stop crying in the media & on BSPN about the Yankees’ abusing the system.

      • Ted Nelson

        Modest is a pretty vague term. Some people consider paying even more money to have the model # removed from their luxury car modest, while others consider their beater with 300,000 miles on it modest.

        What team has come out and publicly announced its bid? I’m not aware of one. What they have to lose is getting their fan base amped about getting Yu only to find out a mystery team beat them. At that point the narrative remains that Cashman is incompetent until they win another WS. Or if they had a low bid they risk their fans thinking they’re incompetent and cheap since they know the exact #.

  • Nathan

    Yankee FO, namely Cashman, has been very quiet the past few days. That’s either very good or very bad.

    • TomH

      An interesting observation. What could it mean? They’re quietly smiling the smile of the cat that swallowed the canary and have Darvish (or star X) in the bag? They’re in a state of appalled silence, realizing that for a second year they’ve bungled on a #2 starter? A combo of #2 and the shock that there’s a new, faster, gun in town? Here in Toronto they’re beginning to see the end of the Yankee Empire, and I’m dreading the return of the early 90s and Toronto Blue Jay patronizing of the Yankees.

      • Ted Nelson

        Both possible, or they just don’t have anything to talk about. “We may or may not have won the bid on Darvish, may or may not make a trade, may or may not just rely on our prospects, and may or may not sign Yoenis and/or Solar when they become free agents… but man are we happy to have gotten those two guys in the Rul5, they have like a 10, 20% chance of making the team…” not exactly newsworthy.

        The Yankees still have a very good team. They have a very strong farm system. They have salary coming off the books over the next few years that they can replace with more salary. Are you really doomsdaying over one pitcher maybe, possibly going to the Jays and not the Yankees? There are a lot of good players on other teams every season, and the Yankees are still a good team.

    • Steve (different one)

      Man, I have been thinking the exact same thing, though my rational aside is telling me I’m just getting my hopes up.

      But here is what we’ve heard: the Yankees met at the last minute and made a modest bid.

      The idea that they decided what to do at the last minute is pretty transparent BS. Doesn’t mean they made the high bid, but they have likely been discussing Darvish for years. Don’t know what to make of the “modest” thing. Was it leaked right before the deadline as gamesmanship? Or is it simply true, and it’s just wishful thinking to think otherwise?

      First the winning bid was $48m, and we knew the Jays bid between $40-50, now it’s higher than Dice-k. What does that mean? It’s a different team? Still the Jays? The Cubs?

      I’m losing my mind….

      • Peter R

        Agreed on the last part.

        Would also like to know when the “modest” part was leaked, but I seem to remember it was after the bidding period ended….so think it could be honesty not gamesmanship.

        My guess is they are relaxing and content in that fact that they bid what they think he was worth and not a cent more. If they don’t win, oh well. I think they are just waiting for this to get sorted out so the pitching market gets back in full swing and we can start signing somebody and doing some trades.

        If they don’t win, oh well, maybe the market will get going again. Come Tuesday, call up the White Sox again, call up Kuroda, call up the Braves again etc etc.

    • CJ

      Bad. I believe cashman is shell shocked by Angels

      • gc

        You would.

      • Sweet Dick Willie

        You’re entitled to believe whatever you want, but Brian Cashman has worked for the Yankees since he was 18.

        I would be willing to bet heavily that he is not shell shocked by a team giving Pujols an A-Rodesque contact and a very good, but not elite pitcher, giving them a home town discount.

        If those two items shell shocked him, I would posit that that is more egregious than all of his bad trades and signings combined.

  • JamieKage

    I’m curious to see if they really do lower the payroll to 189 mill by 2014 if they’ll lower ticket/drink/food prices at the stadium accordingly…that’s not to say just throw money at guys for fun, you still gotta spend smart…but my guess is no.

    • 28 this year

      ticket/drink/food prices are not based on payroll, never was, never will be. They are based on demand. If you really want the prices to go down, organize a boycott of food or something, that would do something. Payroll has nothing to do with those prices.

      • JohnnyC

        Thank you, 28. This is a concept that most fans will never seem to grasp. Of course, most Americans don’t know how their economy works anyway.

      • JamieKage

        It’s called hyperbole.

        • 28 this year

          Based on your comment, no logical person draws hyperbole from that statement, whatsoever.

          • JamieKage

            Well then based on your comment Yankee stadium attendance should always be at 100% capacity, because the demand would necessitate lowering ticket prices because there’s always been a 10%+ availability of tickets since they’ve opened the new stadium. So it’s not exactly a case of supply vs demand.

            • 28 this year

              Actually, if there should be theoretically 100% attendence, prices should vary based on the game. Its really impossible to hit exactly 100% and the Yankees haven’t set the precedent of different prices for different games.

            • JohnnyC

              Ticket prices for 2012 were released 3 weeks ago and, due to supply and demand, many field level seats decreased in price by $35 to $50. Some bleacher seats went up in price as well. I assume laws of supply and demand figured in those changes.

              • JamieKage

                You’d be surprised…and it wasn’t the 85 dollar ticket seats that are always empty on telecasts…unless you believe our broadcasters and think they’re all at NYY Steak enjoying a nice Tbone. And ticket prices ARE varied from game to game…when you actually do get a case of supply vs demand in the secondary market. Yeah, I might not be able to buy a ticket for a Royals game from the Yankees cheaper then for a Red Sox game…but if I wait for the secondary market I sure can…which actually adheres to a supply vs demand model. But all that proves is, no, the Yankees don’t take a case of supply vs demand as gospel. It’s very subjective.

  • Rob G

    I am wondering if NYY is going to just rely on guys like Nova, Hughes, Noesi, Phelps and Warren to get to $189M and are just talking they are looking for SP. They extended Noesi to 120+ IP in winter ball.

    I am with Steve S. – sign Kuroda and wait for 2012 FA class…

    • CMP

      And what’s your plan B if Hamels and Cain resign? Last time they stood pat because they were gonna get the big free agent ace, it didn’t work out too well.

      • Steve (different one)

        Who knows, but opportunities show up unexpectedly sometimes. Who thought Latos would be traded last week? Or that the Phillies would trade Lee? The good news is that the Yankees have the chits to make a big trade if they have to. They were prepared to do so for Lee, but haven’t been able or willing to match up elsewhere. Half of RAB was prepared to deal Montero and Betances for Ubaldo, which could have gone down as one of the worst deals in franchise history (pardon the hyperbole, but you get the point).

        Something else will emerge as long as they have the prospect depth and the payroll flexibility to make it happen.

      • 28 this year

        And the time before that, it was the greatest move. Could you imagine missing out on CC to get Santana? We would have overpaid for Lee and have a broken Santana on the payroll. .500 for Cashman on that front and he got it done when we had no ace and failed when we already had CC so we didn’t go all in anyway. I would say it worked out quite well.

      • Ted Nelson

        Plan B-H might already be in the organization. If the Yankees develop their own SP they don’t need to overpay for veterans.

  • JohnnyC

    I wonder how difficult it’d be for Tim Tebow to transition from the AFC West to the AL East? Probably close better than Melancon.

  • JohnnyC

    Gammons tweeted that Toronto was heavy after Latos. Would they try for Latos if they were certain that their bid on Darvish was the highest (i.e. they went all in)? The Reds of course did not bid on Darvish.

    • Steve (different one)

      They might. Darvish, Latos, Romero, Morrow, Cecil/drabek/Does it matter? Yikes.

  • well you know

    There don’t seem to have been any leaks on the size of the Cubs’ bid. Theo has the track record of going big.

    If it’s not Yanks, hope it’s the Cubbies to keep Yu out of the AL.

    • Steve (different one)

      Agree with this…

    • Steve (different one)

      Just saw that the latest rumor is that the Cubs bid was “very low”…take that with a grain of salt.

      • well you know

        Oh well

    • Kevin G.

      I don’t know if Theo’s first move as Cubs GM would be to offer a record posting fee for Darvish considering what had just happened with Dice K.

  • Frank O

    Was the Toranto bid in US or Canadian dollars? If in Canadian dollars, a $50M bid would be $51.57M in US dollars, which beats the Dice-K posting.

    • Frank O

      Forget that post – used the wrong conversion rate – I converted US dollars into canadian dollars, not Canadian into US

      • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

        It will be in U.S. dollars. The Jays do all their business in U.S. money so they’re on the same playing field as everyone else. MLB cuts them a big check every year to make up the difference in the conversion rate.

        • Plank

          Do the Jays cut a check when the Canadian dollar is stronger?

          • TomH

            It’s hard to believe that the rich-as-Croesus Jays’ owners don’t worry that much about the present exchange rate US/C. In any case, the Japanese don’t want no stinkin’ Canadian dollar bids.

  • Bronx Byte

    Gammons is no longer believable. He burned himself out by over hyping Socks minor leaguers.
    Assuming Toronto wins out to get Darvish, he has culture changes and different pitching routines to deal with.
    The Yankees can get just as much from Hiroki Kuroda in 2012 who’s made the changes already.
    Maybe the Ham Fighters can replace Darvish with Burnett.

    • JohnnyC

      Fighters. They’re owned by Nippon Ham. They’re not a team of porcine dimensions nor are they adept at a martial art that involves slabs of pork.

  • Holy Ghost

    As good as Darvish has been in Japan, he’s not a sure thing.

    Hideo Nomo had the worst stats in Japanese pro baseball of any of the pitchers to come from Japan to the US yet in the MLB, he has been the best pitcher from Japan.

    You can’t predict baseball…