Dec
08

Report: Yu Darvish will be posted tomorrow

By

Via Don Nomura, the Nippon Ham Fighters will post 25-year-old right-hander Yu Darvish tomorrow. I don’t know if that means today (Thursday) or tomorrow (Friday) given the timing, but that doesn’t really matter. One day isn’t a big deal. Darvish confirmed the news on his blog (translated link).

You folks know all about Darvish by now, but if not, scroll through our archive. We’ve covered him quite a bit here, and the Yankees like him enough to have been scouting him since at least 2008. The blind auction period lasts four days, but it usually takes MLB and NPB a full week to announce the high bid. We should know who won his rights by Monday the 19th at the latest.

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League
  • RISP

    I do think he means later today, either way this is exciting. I think it’s likely we won’t see any move from NY till they know who ends up with Darvish. I believe he’s been their target all along, considering his age and the fact that he won’t hurt the luxury tax as much as some of the other FA.

    • Paul from Boston

      I’m going to be pissed if they don’t win this thing, unless some other team goes ridunkulous. The kid has it all. The mistakes with Igawa, Pavano, and Burnett were the same: Paying top dollar for ordinary pitchers. Darvish is extraordinary and the benefits of not counting half the cost make it a no-brainer. This, in fact, may be the last time the Yankees have this clear advantage.

  • MD

    I would bid 56M. Too much?

    • mbonzo

      You’re the Yankees, go 61. I’m serious.

      • Nick

        69!

    • N

      Honestly I wouldn’t be upset if it was even 60-65M

    • RetroRob

      Most of the media guesses I’ve seen over the past few months seem to indicate that the bid will come in lower than Dice-K’s, although I’m sticking with my prediction that it will be north of 50 million, and a new record. All it takes is one team who really wants him and wants to ensure they get him.

  • mbonzo

    If the Yankees like him, he’s their best option this offseason. His AAV will be considerably lower than most starting pitchers, his posting fee doesn’t appear in the payroll, he doesn’t cost prospects, and he doesn’t cost draft picks.

    He pretty much allows the team to go crazy with their resources next year, when they can sign guys like Cole Hamels or realistically consider Betances or Banuelos for a starting spot.

    This all depends on their opinion of him though. If they lose the bid, I’ll be more disappointed about him than Cliff Lee last year.

  • RetroRob

    Well, this promises to be interesting.

  • Cy Pettitte

    I can’t imagine life without Yu.

    but seriously, he’s my favorite option right now. Trade costs for guys like Danks and Gio are way too high, CJ too expensive/too many years, EJax doesn’t interest me. From what I’ve read Yu seems to have the highest upside relative to the lowest cost compared to some of these other guys.

    • Cy Pettitte

      correction: highest upside relative to cost compared to some of these other guys.

  • BGrider85

    DARVISH!…pardon my excitement

  • Bobtaco

    Yankees bid: 68M, my guess…

  • Brooklyn Ed

    Darvish will be posted on Thursday.

    Source: http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/b.....2/33751752

  • Yankonymous

    I guess we’ll never know unless the Yanks put in the highest but: $50,000,222

  • Bo

    As mbonzo alluded to, the psoting fee doesn’t get lumped into the payroll and thus the new and more costly luxury tax, making the risk/reward odds even more favorable. Yanks need to blow away any other potential bids and get this done.

  • Avi

    Avoid him like the plague PLEASE.

    • http://Www.or.ly MeGustaMontero (JM)

      I wouldn’t avoid him, but I think he’s being a bit over hyped right now. It’s very risky. He can come here and be great, but he very well may be a disappointment. (I know this can be said about basically everyone, but I think the Japan to the USA translation is being understated at least a little right now)

      • V

        A sub-2 ERA is a sub-2 ERA, and the scouting matches the #s. Kid’s awesome.

        Trevor Bauer had a sub-2 ERA the last couple years in college, and if he had been a true free agent, would have likely gotten paid more than Aroldis Chapman. I’d assume Japan > college.

        • Holy Ghost

          From what I’ve read on the issue, Japanses pro-baseball is more like AAAA. There are some hitters who could play in the major leagues but most are triple A level. And there is more emphasis on swinging the bat and making contact than drawing walks. None of that means Darvish won’t excel in the US but his ability to dominate MLB hitters is far from a sure thing.

  • your mom

    Oh please, Mr Cashman, make it happen. $61,111,111 million.

  • Avi

    The amount of excitement here is truly puzzling to me. Do you realize that if he comes here and validates the money he’s about to cost he’ll be the FIRST Japanese pitcher to perform at that level? Please wake up.

    • mbonzo

      Darvish is by far the best pitcher to come out of Japan, why wouldn’t that translate to him having the most potential? Its not like there haven’t been successful Japanese pitchers, Kuroda is a #2/#3. How much have you watched of Darvish? He’s extremely filthy.

      • Avi

        The most potential for Japanese pitcher isn’t saying much. The hype for Dice-crap was at least as much, if not more than Yu’s. And despite what some people here would have you believe Matsuzakah wasn’t billed as a soft tosser before coming over. Walking few batters in Japan doesn’t necessarily translate to the same thing here. If the Yankees were considering giving $100MM to a Gary Sanchez type would everyone be so excited? Why then are people excited about Darvish. Success and even dominance in the Japanese league guarantees about as much success in the majors as a 16 year old hitting a pair of rolled up socks 450 feet on a farm in the Dominican Republic.

        • http://jukeofurl.wordpress.com Juke Early

          Agreed. It’s like taking a guy who’s been an Olympic sprinter his entire running career – say from age 15 to 25. Then making him a miler his very next race. AND expecting him to take the gold medal plus break the record. Not to mention do it on a different planet…

        • mbonzo

          The Gary Sanchez comp is a red herring.

          The Japanese league is more difficult than even AAA, and Darvish’ numbers are far superior to Matsuzaka. The hype might be the same, but Matsuzaka is nothing like Darvish. They have completely different builds, and completely different styles of pitching. Darvish overpowers hitters with his fastball and movement, Matsuzaka had good movement but used it to finesse in Japan. Darvish sits mid 90’s while Matssuzaka was low 90’s. I’ll admit, Darvish won’t be able to sustain a 1.4 BB/9 in the US, but he’s got 4 plus pitches to overpower hitters.

          You also keep saying that his dominance means nothing, comparing him to other failed Japanese starters. The point is that he dominated so much, he dominated the dominant Japanese pitchers. You need to do your homework, he’s a 6’5″ power pitcher, not a 6′ gyro hurler.

          • Avi

            Good points. Hope to reply tomorrow.

          • MannyGeee

            Mmmmm….. 6′ gyros

            /Homer Simpson’d

        • Virginia

          After the Kei Igawa failure, the Yankees strenghtened their international scouting system…if they think they might want this guy, maybe we should have faith that they are making the right decision. And considering the Yankees haven’t done anything fun this offseason or last offseason, I understand why everyone is excited. I am too…I want Yu Darvish for Christmas….COME ON CASHMAN – I mean, SANTA!

  • dennyneagleshooker

    this may be a bit ahead but, where would everyone rank yu in terms of young starters. watching his videos online against eastern comp, i would say he is a step behind strasburg, but def is ahead of the likes of matt moore, zach wheeler, jacob turner. (based on a few youtube videos)

    dream rotation: cc, yu, hughes, joba (dreams) & sweaty freddy.

    • mbonzo

      If he was a prospect, he’s gotta be #1. The Japanese league is harder than AAA, and he completely dominated, more than any top prospect. The only one you mentioned that would be close is Strasburg because he’s had success in the majors, but he’s also not a prospect.

      • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

        For comparisons, Dice-K was the number 1 rated prospect on BA’s Top 100 list prior to 2007. Sure there’s different players now, but he’ll probably be at the top.

      • Jake

        I wouldn’t rate him ahead of Moore at all. Moore has one of the easiest motions and filthiest stuff I’ve seen from a lefty in a long time. But ahead of Wheeler, Turner, and maybe even Miller. Strasburgh has out of this world stuff, so Darvish isn’t close to that IMO. I think we’re looking at a good No. 2 type guy here.

        I wonder if the inclination to move Burnett might have something to do with moving Joba into the rotation. CC, Yu, Hughes, Nova, and Freddy. But if Hughes struggles (which would take about a month or so to figure out) they could have Joba as a replacement option on rehab in the minors) with Banuelos as the insurance for Freddy. Betances still needs to prove his control from 2010 wasn’t a fluke, so I doubt they have a rotation spot carved out for him right now. Or do I just need to let go of this Joba to the rotation dream? (Just hard to do, when BA ranked him to have I think the best fastball, slider, and curve in the system in 07 or so)

        • mbonzo

          Very few prospects project as aces, and Matt Moore is not one of them. Strasburg did, but he had his own doubts as well. Darvish may not project as an ace, but he’s got similarly awesome stuff to Strasburg, with a much longer and better track record. Again, Darvish put up better numbers than Moore in a much harder league, for much longer. Theres no comparison if you ask me, only to a guy like Strasburg.

          • Jake

            I honestly don’t buy the AAA equivalency measurement, just because it doesn’t really pass the smell test to me, especially for pitchers. The whole throwing routine issue has been covered. The strike zone seems a bit bigger over there as well (they seem to call the defined high strike- which is what makes me think Igawa found it so hard to adjust to not throwing high pitches), and the balls were smaller.

            We’ll agree to disagree on Moore. I think he has stud ace as his projection, just because the stuff, control, and domination all pan out. If Darvish posted the same numbers while ascending through the minor leagues, I would rank them closer, but I’m skeptical of the transition. Although I’m in now way saying Darvish is bad or that we shouldn’t go after him. But personally, regardless of money, if I was offered Moore for Darvish, I’d take Moore.

            • mbonzo

              Yea, the pitching stats this year for Japan are very questionable. Still, there are 6 more seasons worth of numbers to look at. Even if you don’t like the game, you can watch videos of him, and the velocity and movement is indeed there. Even when he faced major league players, he embarrassed them in the WBC when he was 22.

              I’m not just pulling the Japanese league being harder than AAA out of my ass, fyi. Its just something I keep reading as fact in scouting reports. But yea I agree that you have to be skeptical on this year especially.

              As for Moore, I think you’re too confident in a young pitcher like him. So many of them fail and get injured, its why you can’t call young kids aces. I love Moore, but there is no way I’d bet on him being ace.

              • Jake

                I do like his stuff from the videos, apart from an affinity to pitch high sometimes, he has great stuff. But I don’t think it’s on the level of Strasburgh and based on pure stuff on the level of Moore.

                Yeah, I’ve read that too, even that the Cuban National League is on par or better than AA as well. I just feel like Darvish’s stuff isn’t out of this world nasty. Considering they used a lighter ball before, I also wonder if his high end velocity takes a small dip (maybe a 1-2 mph).

                I’ll admit, I’m a sucker for hard throwing pitchers. I just think Moore is special, his level of command, stuff have me thinking he’s almost a can’t miss guy.

                I think WBC stats tend to be a bit skewed since it takes place before spring training, so a lot of the American based hitters aren’t really on the top of their game, while the other countries see this as the epitome of a national stage, so they take it way more seriously (as we saw with Dice-K throwing out his arm).

                I hope the Yankees get Darvish though, could really use him, and the whole argument of who’s better or not can’t really be solved for years to come anyway.

                • Steve (different one)

                  I don’t think it’s fair to compare him to Strasburg stuff-wise. Strasburg might have the best “stuff” for a prospect…ever?

    • dayners

      Strasburg and Moore both look like aces to me i’m not sure theres another young starter i’d rather have than Moore. I would put Strasburg, Moore and Cole ahead of Darvish but ahead of Wheeler and Turner. I think Darvish projects along the lines of Tallon a very good #2 that is dominate at times

  • your mom

    If the Rangers lose Wilson I can see them putting in an outrageous bid. Toronto the dark horse?

    • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

      Yeah I’m thinking the same thing. What about the Marlins if Wilson goes to LA? Nationals? Cubs? What about the mystery team?!?!?!?!

      • Jake

        I worry about the Nats the most. They have money to spend apparently, but unless they grossly overpay (Werth), prime free agents really haven’t shown an inclination to go there. But if they put out a high bid, they can have a young rotation of Strasburgh, Zimmerman, Yu, Peacock, and Detwiler. When you figure in that they will have Harper and possibly Rendon on the fast track to help the offense as well. I think the Nats are going to be the dark horse.

        I think the Angels could be in too, because Omar just joined them as a senior vice president (really Moreno? Taking on Wells wasn’t enough, needed to ruin your team more by hiring Omar?), and if I remember correctly, he put in the second highest bid for Dice-K.

        • your mom

          The Angels don’t need Darvish if they lock up CJ Wilson.

        • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

          You could be right on the Angels. But do you see them putting a bid worth while if they sign Wilson? (Which it looks like will happen. Source: https://twitter.com/#!/JimBowdenESPNxm/status/144663964356321280)

          • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

            And for all we know, the Phillies could be in the running too…

          • Jake

            Well from looking at their contract situations, they would have Abreu (9 mil), Hunter (18 mil), Takahashi (4 mil) plus the 8 million they lose this year with Pinero. So by next year, they could lose 39 million from last year’s payroll. Hunter would be replaced by Trout. Abreu would be replaced by Morales at DH (and Trumbo plays 1B I guess so Morales can avoid injury). I think that gives them enough flexibility to add two high caliber pitchers because they know that they would have tons of cap space next year, and don’t have to worry about the Yankees and RedSox blowing them out of the water for Hamels or someone else.

            I don’t think it’s a definite, but do think they have a dark horse possibility.

            • MannyGeee

              Moreno and Minaya are so bas at the business of baseball, you are giving them too much credit. They’ll piss that payroll flexibility away on like…. Barry Zito or

              AJ BURNETT!?!?!???!!!?!

      • JAG

        Fortunately for the Yankees, none of those teams will likely get to factor where CJ goes into their decision-making. I would be stunned if Wilson signed before Darvish’s posting period ended.

        • MannyGeee

          No way. CJ needs to strike while the iron is hot. Darvish can throw a whole monkey wrench into CJ being this seasons golden child…. Get your money now son

  • CANO FAN #1

    They can make it with 48M. No?

  • Avi

    Well the Burnett contract only has two years left on it so we have to bring in another disaster. It’s a Cashman necessity: at least one disaster pitching contract on every Yankee team. Pavano, Burnett, Jaret Wright, Javier Vazquez #1, Randy Johnson, Weaver, Igawa, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez #2 and Darvish.
    If you’re going to spend about $100MM it has to be on a DEFINITE!! Why is that concept so hard to understand??

    • Mick

      Do you realize the majority of those were not brought in by Cashman, but by George?

      • Avi

        Don’t really mean to focus squarely on Cashman, rather on the faulty process of the organization.

        • mbonzo

          That faulty process has built the best organization in baseball for the last decade and a half.

          • Avi

            Really, the Yankees win? They’re a good team? Thanks!

            • mbonzo

              They’re a good team because of Cashman and his resources, which you’re criticizing. Its not divine intervention, Bill OReilly.

              • Avi

                I see it differently.

    • Need Pitching

      no such thing as a “DEFINITE”
      every player carries risk

      • Avi

        “every player carries risk”

        Yes. Some more than others. The idea is to take on as little risk as possible, or at least equal risk to your outlay ($$).

        • Need Pitching

          taking on the lowest risk possible all the time is a small market, perennial loser strategy

          • Avi

            The exact opposite is true.

            • Need Pitching

              taking low risk means never signing players to long-term deals, never being the highest bidder in free agency
              Long-term deals all carry enormous risk

            • MannyGeee

              What makes the opposite true?

        • thenamestsam

          There’s this other thing too. You may have heard of it. It’s called reward. The idea is absolutely not to take on risk equal to the outlay. The idea is to take on both risk and reward equal to the outlay. Darvish is highly risky. He also comes with a potentially extremely high reward. You may not think that’s enough to justify the cost, but to say that the only thing that matters is risk is asinine.

    • mbonzo

      CC like players don’t come around all the time, and when they do the Yankees go all out to get them. They have the resources, so why wouldn’t the Yankees take a risk on Darvish? Its not like any of the pitchers you mentioned affected their free agent strategy.

      You’re talking about a front office that has built the best organization, and you complain they wasted money on some bad starters. No ones perfect, you’re spoiled with this team.

    • your mom

      I don’t care about the money, it aint mines. The Yankees have more than enough money to put a dominant bid in. I don’t know if there’s a pitcher out there as enigmatic as Mr Yu. It’s just money, put the fucking bid in.

    • Jimmy McNulty

      Pavano had sort of an “unluckiest man in the world” syndrome, AJ Burnett was key in a WS winning team, and Randy Johnson had one of the ten maybe even five best seasons a Yankee pitcher had in the 2000s. Javy one had a good first half before he decided to shit his pants. Jaret Wright was a George move and the thought process that lead to signing him isn’t a part of the organization anymore, the same goes for Kevin Brown and Jeff Weaver. Kei Igawa, they said that they’ve learned from their mistakes…which it seems that they’re saying all the right things regarding that. Besides it was what? 20M? Yeah, that’s a good chunk of change for something worthless…but there’s teams that spend about 4M a year for a shitty bench player. Javy pt. 2 I saw the writing on the wall, didn’t want to lose Arodys and I clearly saw the scenario where he let balls fly out of the park left and right. I also saw a scenario where he’s sorta good too. So there’s that.

      Every team makes moves ends up making bad moves. You could be like the Pirates and just not do anything and wind up with a shit team until a team saving prospect comes along, or you can go out and make some moves. Sure you’ll make bad ones but you’ll also make a few good ones too. Mistakes happen to every organization that makes moves.

      There was also Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia lately. Before that they brought in Andy Pettitte again and got back Roger Clemens, sure they overpaid Clemens but for what he was he was pretty good. 100 innings of above average ball may not be worth twenty million bucks but it’s still worth something. There’s also that CC Sabathia character. Furthermore, they’ve been interested in the right pitchers even if some other team snagged them instead by offering better prospects.

      And look, I vote a three in the fan confidence poll every fucking week. I’m the first to admit that this team makes mistakes out the ass when it comes to pitching, but I don’t look at every pitcher this team is interested in that isn’t CC Sabathia or better and say “GEE THIS WILL TURN OUT LIKE OTHER BAD CONTRACTS!!!!!!!!” like you do. That’s just fucking stupid. Yes, this team has a huge problem with scouting pitching, part of it is that they play in a park where right handed pitchers need to be really good or they’ll get killed, part of it’s that they play in a brutal division, and part of it’s that they’ve had a pretty weak defenses for most of those pitchers you mentioned. So it’s not like the Dodgers, Angels, As or Giants that have competitive advantages with pitching. The Yankees simply put pitchers up to a tough task.

      Yes this team’s had it’s fair share of misses with pitchers, and yes they’ve had trouble with scouting pitchers. However, there’s plenty of evidence that suggesting that is changing. Given the teams that are interested in Darvish: Texas, Toronto, etc. I’m pretty confident that you can’t compare Darvish to those guys you listed and that the Yankees are right to be interested.

    • Billion$Bullpen

      Can you provide facts that it was George? Or anything close to facts on that?

      I think Cashman has done a piss poor job at developing pitching and almost an equal crap job at getting it the trade and free agent market given the Yankees vast cash reserves. Overall I think Cashman is a good GM.

      On the other side Pavano,and Javier Vazquez #1 were looked at as good deals. The Weaver deal was kind of as well at the time. The Jaret Wright deal was bad from jumpstreet as was Vazquez #2. Kevin Brown move was desperation move and while it was not great other than $ I do not see it as a bad move. The Igawa deal was a joke from the start. Burnett was a move they felt they had to make and had $ coming off the books and it did help bring in a WS ring and he does provide tons of innings.
      The Unit deal to me was a very good one and as much as I am not a fan of the man he showed “grit” by not missing starts and winning games without having anything left physically. Anybody that expected the man to be the old RJ was just going into with unreal expectations.

      I give Cashman zero props for signing CC as we overpayed by so much (in relation to his other offers that were reported) any one of us could have landed him with that check as well.

    • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

      You could argue that Yu Darvish carries less risk than other pitchers on the market. No draft pick will have to be forfeited, no prospects will have to be traded and when looking at the actual contract that Darvish receives, I’m willing to bet that it will be favorable compared to other deals pitchers are getting.

      I’d rather the Yankees pay Darvish $60-70 million over six years than pay Buehrle and his 85 mph “heater” $58 million over four.

  • Adolf Oliver Nipple

    I’d be okay with the Yankees signing Darvish

    • your mom

      I think it’s a must, especially seeing the ridiculous asking prices for the likes of Danks, Jurrjens and Gonzalez.

  • SevenAces

    Nothing is definite, but I’m in the Pro-Yu camp. Let’s see what the CashMoney is going to do.

    Onlyyyy Yu can make this world seem right
    Only Yu can make the darkness bright…

    Alright I’ll stop the horrible pun…

    • your mom

      “I want to be a part of it, Yu York, Yu York…..”

      • Avi

        How about I come from Japan, I take all your money and I F Yu?

        • your mom

          Well if that happens it’ll suck because the Boss isn’t around to give him a fancy nickname.

  • Avi

    I don’t get it. Guys who dominate from high school and then in college and then at every level in the minors are still far from guarantees to succeed in the majors. Why then is it a given that this guy is gonna be good?

    • http://bleedingyankeeblue.com Jesse

      Look at his numbers in Japan!!!11!!!1
      He DOMINATED teh hitters there!!!1!!11!!1!

    • Need Pitching

      it’s not a given, nothing ever is
      but Japanese baseball is closer to MLB than every league you mention
      It’s entirely possible Darvish ends up as a bust, I’m sure the Yankees have scouted him extensively enough to make a judgement as to his likelihood of success, and will bid or not bid accordingly
      This risk with any move, but in Yu’s case the potential reward is a #1/#2 type starter that the Yankees have been seeking and unable to attain for a while now
      It’s up to the Yankees front office to judge if the potential reward is worth the risk

      • Avi

        Yes, when determining how much to pay for him it should come down to the risk vs the reward.

        • mbonzo

          Yup and the Yankees are risking a small portion of their largest resource, money. They lose $50-$60m in posting (not gonna change anything), and $8-$9m a year off their salary. So they are risking using that $8-$9m on other players in 2012, when they could be receiving a #2 in Darvish. For most teams thats high risk, high reward, but for the Yankees its low risk, high reward. Signing Darvish has no affect over what they do in the future, and they could get a #2 out of it.

          • Avi

            By that rationale the Yanks should sign every free agent. It’s not true, even the Yankees have a finite amount of money or at least are willing to spend. They didn’t offer Cliff Lee $30mm a year.
            Also, money paid out upfront in one lump sum is more valuable than if it’s paid out over multiple years. The only advantage to the $50-$60MM being a posting fee as oppose to salary is that they don’t have to pay luxury tax on it. Other than that, winning the bid for $50MM and paying him $10M a year for five years cost more than paying him $20mm a year for five years.

            • mbonzo

              Its more than paying a luxury tax on the money, its putting up exuberant yearly salaries. If they went too far they’d be begging the commissioner to institute stricter taxes or even a salary cap. The Yankees have ridiculous amount of money, according to Forbes their debt value is at 4%, where the average team is around 35-40%. which, when you compare to other payrolls, the Yankees could easily sustain a payroll of $400m+.

              If the Yankees ever had such a payroll, there would be an immediate salary cap. The goal is to keep the salary down, and because the posting doesn’t count towards salary, the money isn’t much of an object. That assumes the Yankees believe in Darvish, which by their level of interest is quite obvious.

              • mbonzo

                Also, for anyone interested in those numbers. http://www.forbes.com/lists/20....._land.html

                It appears that a teams payroll is pretty much set by 15-20% of their organizational value. The Yankees are at 12%, but they also have the largest stream of revenue from other sources, such as YES. If the Yankees set their revenue to the same percent of the Red Sox they’d be at $323m a year, which I still think is a low number for what they could sustain. I wish I could just have one of those millions.

              • Avi

                I see. So the only reason why the Yanks don’t spend $350MM a year or so in payroll is to not tick off other teams? I guess it’s possible, but if that’s the case why didn’t they sign Aroldis Chapman? Why don’t they sign every highly touted international amateur free agent. It’s also possible that the yanks don’t spend more because they don’t want to despite their vast riches.

                • Chip

                  Maybe they scouted Aroldis Chapman and decided that he was too big a risk as he only has two pitches (albeit really great ones) and absolutely no idea where the ball is going? It hasn’t exactly been the best contract in the Red’s history

                • MannyGeee

                  You have been bitching about the risk of Darvish and then you pull Chapman out of your ass???

                  You are awesome…. A real treat

            • Fin

              Avi, u miss the issue. Singing Yu is going to take a bid, that bid has no impact on the Yankees payroll. Meaning it doesnt go against luxury tax or any other fines that baseball has concocted.

              If they win that bid, singing him to a contract is going to affect the payroll. However, its assumed from past history, his contract will be max 12mil for 5 yrs.

              that only 60 million of money, we as Yankee fans care about..Wilson is going to get near 120mil.

              • Ted Nelson

                Out of curiosity, are they going to bid Trident layers gum or money?

                If they are going to bid money, it’s got to come from somewhere. That it’s not subject to the luxury tax doesn’t mean it’s not money.

                • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

                  The posting fee is definitely a big sum, but I don’t think fans care about that because it is assumed that the one-time fee won’t impact the Yankees ability to add reinforcements to the team. Whether that is right or wrong, I don’t know. That’s just the impression that I get.

                  • Ted Nelson

                    Yeah, I see that impression… I just think it’s as likely to be wrong as right.

  • dennyneagleshooker

    and by that i meant roy oswalt…….

  • Charles Mckenna

    Prediction: The New York Mets will win the Darvish sweepstakes.

  • Fin

    Ill be shocked if the Yankees dont end up with him…Been saying it since talk about him began, he just fits too well. Half his money is luxory tax free, need a number 2, keep prospects. He basically only costs what the yankees have more of than anyone else…money.

  • Avi

    I swear if the Yankees give Darvish $100mm and then don’t go after Hamels next winter I’m gonna have to take up golf.

    • fin

      He wont cost 100mil. Hes gona cost payroll wise ~50mil. His total cost might exceed 100.

    • Steve (different one)

      And what if Darvish is awesome in 2012?

    • http://www.bronxbombersreport.com Craig Maduro

      I wish people would stop counting all these 2012 chickens that aren’t even close to hatching. Everybody keeps talking about Cain and Hamels completely ignoring the good possibility that they get extended during the season.

  • DI

    I’d love to get him but hopefully they don’t bid ridiculously high. There are still other options (albeit those are going fast).

    • Fin

      There are no other options that cost as little as he does. I’m assuming the Yankees think hes a number 2. There are no true number 2’s on the market that are only gona cost the yankees roughly 50mil in payroll…freakin Buehrle signed for that. I could care less if the yankees bid 100 mil in posting, its not my money and it doesnt have any bearing on payroll.

  • Jimmy McNulty

    For all of those who were discussing the budget in 2014 earlier, this would fit in with their austerity plan and still allow them to win. The Yankees make more than enough money to afford the bid, however it doesn’t toward the lux tax. Their budget should only be concerned with how it effects the lux tax. So they can pay Darvish like CJ wilson but get taxed like they signed someone like Mark Buehrle. Dump Burnett, get Darvish and sign Kuroda. You can go into next year with a rotation of:

    CC
    Darvish
    Kuroda
    Nova
    Garcia

    Have Hughes waiting in the wings, or have him working as a long man/fireman, you’ve got yourself a championship rotation right there.

    Kuroda’s a two year commitment at the most, so you’ll have him off the books by 2014. Right when Manny and Dellin are (hopefully) ready to take over.

    • Chip

      I completely agree but I doubt we’ll be seeing Burnett move anytime soon. Why would a team take Burnett and the 2/25 that the Yankees aren’t paying for instead of signing Kuroda themselves for 2/25?

  • Chip

    So bit 61M on Darvish, sign him to a 6 year deal for 54 million and roll with a rotation of

    CC, Nova, Yu, Burnett, Hughes and Garcia as the long-man in the bullpen. (I really think he would initially be the odd man out as they want to give Hughes one last shot and still have to keep Burnett around at least another year as a starter if they hope to trade him).

    That still leaves Noesi, Betances, Banuelos, Warren, Phelps, Mitchell, ect in the minors. There is no other way they can run out a rotation like that and keep all their prospects. Also, keep in mind that signing Yu wouldn’t require the huge contract that his ability *could* command on the open market.

    This makes me think back to the report that they want to keep their salary under the cap in 2014. If Yu develops, you could have a very good front three of CC, Nova and Yu with the last two spots filled by one of the 7 or 8 possible high end prospects they have at the minimum. That would go a long way towards keeping payroll down with the possibility of having an amazing rotation if any more of the prospects hit without having the huge payroll.

    I would love to see a rotation in 2013 of:

    CC/Yu/Banuelos/Nova/Noesi

    *yes, I know pitching prospects bust all the time but let a guy dream will ya?

  • Bavarian Yankee

    I want Yu Darvish under my festivus pole!!

  • UYF1950

    The more and more I read and think about this and also try and look at what has been posted about the Yankees wanting to or trying to get under the luxury tax threshold of $189MM starting in 2014 the more sense Darvish makes for the Yankees. Since only his contract and not the posting fee counts towards the threshold.

    If I’m the Yankees and I’m truly interested in signing this guy to say a 6 year contract. I make my posting bid just over $60MM and assume it’s going to take about $66M over 6 years to sign him to a contract. Total cost about $126MM but only $11MM per year counting towards the luxury tax threshold.

    If the Yankees were to sign him I could see where it would be a harbinger of a AJ Burnett trade.

    And I have to be honest a starting rotation of: CC, Darvish, Nova, Hughes and Garcia sounds a heck of a lot better to me than CC, AJ, Nova, Hughes and Garcia. Then the Yankees have Noesi, Phelps, Mitchell, Warren, Banuelos and Betances waiting in the wings or possible putting one or more of them (except Banuelos) in a package for a future trade. All sorts of scenarios are possible.

    Just food for thought.

  • JonS

    Yes finally!! I am so nervous about this. I am a huge Yu fan and have actually followed him by watching his games and everything and this guy is better than advertised. I want this kid on the Yanks but i just feel yanks are going to be conservative. I had a dream (no f-ing lie) last night that some team got him and the yanks bid low. But please Yanks please bid in the area of 45-60 mil and sign him for 6/58

  • hogsmog

    I can’t bear to think of the puns we’ll miss out on if he doesn’t land here.

  • BGrider85

    I’m gonna both laugh and pout when it’s announced the Jays win the bidding with a $75MM bid…

  • dc1874

    …Matsui was considered THE BEST player in Japan..an ICON…Godzilla didnt dissapoint once he came to the US….

  • bonestock94

    This is gonna be nuts, after Buerhle’s deal I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets 6/90 not including posting.

  • Jose M. Vazquez..

    Let’s stop this nonsense about the Japanese league being triple A or not or that the ball is smaller or that they pitch every five days over there. Human beings no matter their race, ethnicity or background are adaptable to any condition. This nonsense sounds like bias because Yu is from a different background. If you are good you’re good and that’s it. I hope we don’ lose out on this bid because of the pitchers available ,HE IS THE ONE that can upgrade our staff.

    • Fin

      I’m tired of morons thinking that race is the issue and not the league..People dont thing Japaneese pitchers are no good because they are japanees, they think they are no good because the japaneese league is no good. Giving MLB inferior players than what they paid for.

      • Fin

        I’m sorry how that was written, really drunk, really early in the AM. My point stands though.

      • Jose M. Vazquez..

        Not everyone in any league is all good. There are always outstanding players in every league and those are the ones that make the big show. It,s not about race I agree. It should not have sounded like racism as it came out. And I am not a moron. I am a retired physician.

        • Fin

          Jeez Jose, I meant nothing towards you. I was just making a point in general. The MSM makes it seem it a race thing against Japaneese pitchers, because so many have failed to live up to expectations. My thing is, its not the race its the league. Seems the pitching is not up to MLB level.

        • Monteroisdinero

          Doc Medich. Remember him?

  • Matt :: Sec110

    Great, he speaks in 3rd person…

  • Monteroisdinero

    With Darvish and Kuroda we might have to rush Higashioka a bit.

    /kidding

    • Fin

      You really want kuroda? If Burehle got 50mil for 4 yreas. He is good for 3 50. Hes better than Burehle, maybe older, but better.

      • Monteroisdinero

        No-just joking about having our in house Japanese catcher working with our 40% Japanese starting staff.

        I only want Darvish.

      • Ted Nelson

        He’s four years older… will be 37 next season while Buerhle will only be 36 his final season of that deal…

        Kuroda is slightly better in the NL West… let’s not exaggerated it. Buehrle has thrown with roughly the same velocity for the last 10 years… he’s not losing his stuff or anything.

  • Gifted Go Gitta

    I read about a reduced-offense baseball or dead ball that is being used in Japan. Is there any truth to that?

    • Chris

      The ball is a bit smaller but I don’t know if the ball itself is any different from a density, material and production stand point.

  • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher

    Was never big on this idea, and it really is just RAB commenters who want to put all their egg in the Yu basket, but here we are and, if we’re here, then the team might as well go big, win his rights, and hope the gamble is worth it.

    When Tim Dierkes quotes someone as saying “why, the winning bid is going to be 100 million!!!!!!”, does that actually have any traction?

    • Fin

      Say the Yankees bid $100mil, would you care? That has no impact on the Yankees payroll. Its just a gut reaction, of how our world works. It would have no bearing on how the Yankees team works going forward. If they signed him for 100mil, that would affect the team going forward.

      • Ted Nelson

        If the Yankees spend $100 million on anything I have to imagine that does impact what they do going forward. They can’t print money as far as I know.

        • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher

          Papa Steinbrenner used to make his own money……and then gave it to Steve Kemp. Doh!

          I agree with you, though. Money is money is money.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      Yet others think the team is going to obviously win the World Series. There’s two sides to this.

  • Steve (different one)

    If he is posted today, when will we find out the winner?

    • JohnC

      Mike said in his article it takes about a full week to digest all the bids and then determine the highest bid. I really expect the Rangers and Nationals to be overagressive in their bids. They are the Yanks biggest competition in this thing. Rangers cause they are about to lose CJ Wilson and desperately need pitching, and the Nationals cause they are desperately trying to put themselves on the map as a contender and drool over a top 2 of a Strasburg and Darvish leading their staff

    • Adolf Oliver Nipple

      someone said ~4 days

  • Chris

    If the Yanks don’t make a pick today at the rule 5 I think it is very telling. I’d assume they have that 1 spot open on the 40 man for someone else other than a rule 5 pick (like a Darvish).

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      I wouldn’t read much into that. A 40-man spot isn’t much of an obstacle. They’d still have to clear one for Freddy Garcia as well.

      • Chris

        But why would they make a pick then dump someone they felt needed to be protected a week later?

        • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

          It doesn’t have to be someone they protected. Maxwell, Golson, and Dickerson are all out of options, they could trade one of them for a low-level minor leaguer like they did with Juan Miranda last year to clear a spot. I’m kinda surprised they haven’t done that yet already.

          • JohnC

            Mike:

            Whats your prediction on the Yanks bid?

          • Chris

            Good point, never crossed my mind. Are you a little shocked that the new CBA did not address the posting fees in respect to the lux tax?

      • Fin

        Mike, From People you speak to, do you have any idea of what the Yankees think about Darvish? I know almost everyone on the website would love to have him, from the hype, much like Cespedes. But what do the yankees think?

  • Gonzo

    Wow, this is exciting. This could fit in well with their austerity plan, but that also makes him a fit for other teams that think they will be bumping up against the luxury threshold in years to come.

    Let the rumors swirl. My guess is that $52,222,222 will be the winning bid.

  • Mykey

    Just bid “x + $1.00″ where x = The highest bid.

    • Gonzo

      Bob Barker would be proud.

      • JohnC

        “God I hate that Bob Barker!!!”

        • Gonzo

          The price is wrong, b***h!

  • Gerald Williams

    CC Darvish Nova Freddy Hughes

    Bye bye AJ…

  • Holy Ghost

    The expectations and hype surrounding this guy is ridiculous but not undeserved given how he’s performed over his career.

    I still think any team that pays $100+ million for a pitcher with no major league experience is nuts. If the Yankees manage to win his services, I hope he lives up to the insane hype…

    • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher

      Like with any other baseball talk, if you stop and think about what $100 million dollars really is, the conversation ends there. It’s insane because, I don’t know, we should be solving our homeless problem rather than our Yu Darvish problem, but you’re practically not dealing with “real” money here, so why go there.

      If you want him that bad, then you’re going to have set the bar real high. If he’s who they want, and they want to make sure they’ve got the highest bid, $100 million would do it.

      If I were Cashman, and the reasons NOT to do it would be, “but he could go to the RED SOX! and be good!”, it wouldn’t be enough. No, I wouldn’t bid it. I’d rather not tie up that money and go into the season with a questionable rotation and work it out as it goes. Fear is a bad reason to make decisions. I’m not Brian Cashman, though.

      • Holy Ghost

        It’s not the dollar amount so much as the process. Would you spend $100,000 to buy a uniquely built car without atleast taking it for a test drive? That’s pretty much how I view this process.

        Teams are preparing to invest a huge amount of money into a player with very little knowledge of how he will perform. While his stats in Japan are impressive, there are a few good reasons to doubt whether he could be as dominant in the MLB, especially the AL East.

        I personally feel that Darvish might be a better fit for an NL team but if the Yanks get the guy, I hope I’m wrong…

        • Ted Nelson

          Even a full test drive doesn’t tell you much about long-term durability, though. Scouting at as high a level as Japanese pro ball should give you an idea of his immediate effectiveness, it’s more been the durability that’s done in Japanese transplants, in my opinion. Of the three most hyped Japanese SP to come over that I can recall (the ones with hype approaching Yu), Irabu was the only straight bust. Nomo had a good career that faded a bit, and Dice-K had instant success he hasn’t sustained. (Could be forgetting some guys.)

          And proven MLB players are huge risks, too. The list of proven MLB stars who got ~$100 million contracts is also littered with busts. (And depending on how you account for it, the luxury tax exception for the bid could lower that cost… with the immediate payment offsetting that to some degree depending how you finance it).

          • Holy Ghost

            I think generally, its just tougher to predict whether dominance in Japanese pro-baseball translates into success in the US. There’s just too many factors. The biggest factor is the upgrade in overall offensive talent from Japan to the American major leagues. Also, the low ‘walks’ numbers could be misleading because Japanese hitters focus more on contact than power and OBP.

            Overall, Darvish’s stats look great but not everything translates well to the style of baseball played in the US. It’s a big risk.

  • David, Jr.

    Cashman – “pitching, pitching, pitching”

    Wilson – gone.

    Buehrle – gone.

    Trades – sound ridiculously expensive.

    Prospects – more valuable than ever.

    My Gut Feel – all out for Darvish.