Yu Can’t Always Get What Yu Want


(Donald Miralle/Getty Images)

After months … hell, years of speculation, the Yu Darvish saga officially came to an end last night, at least as far as the Yankees as concerned. It was announced Monday night that the Texas Rangers won the negotiating rights to the Japanese right-hander with a $51.7M bid, the largest ever submitted in the relatively brief history of the posting process. The Rangers obviously decided Darvish would be a better investment than C.J. Wilson, a pretty darn good pitcher they know better than anyone. The Yankees, on the other hand, didn’t seem all that interested in getting involved in a bidding war.

Soon after the news broke, Marc Carig reported that the Yankees submitted what was essentially a safety bid. If other teams were tapped out financially this late in the offseason and Darvish fell into their laps, then great. Those were the terms under which they were willing to add the guy to their team. That obviously didn’t happen though, and it sure doesn’t seem like the Yankees will be terribly disappointed. They’ve been very passive in their pursuit of pitching this offseason, at least big name pitching like Darvish, Wilson, and Mark Buehrle. Call them cheap if you want, just don’t expect me to take you seriously if you do.

“I think like with anything else you learn over time … I think we’re more prepared today than we have been in the past,” said Brian Cashman when asked about the possibility of pursuing Darvish during his end-of-season press conference last month, obviously alluding to the Kei Igawa disaster. Cashman and then-manager Joe Torre reportedly had to ask Igawa what his best pitch was during his first season in New York, a clear sign they didn’t do their homework and based their decision to pursue the guy on emotional reaction rather than informed opinion. Emotional reactions are pretty much the worst kind of reactions, especially when it comes to making baseball decisions, but the Yankees have definitely moved away from that type of thinking in recent years. If they hadn’t, Jesus Montero would have been long gone, traded for whatever the flavor of the week was after Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies.

We know the Yankees had been scouting Darvish since at least 2008, so they certainly did their homework this time around. Special advisor and former GM Gene Michael saw him, both scouting directors Billy Eppler (pro) and Damon Oppenheimer (amateur) saw him, I’m willing to bet former Padres and current D’Backs GM Kevin Towers saw him (at least on video) when he was on the staff last year, and I’m sure a small army of scouts and other advisors saw him as well. The Yankees gathered information over a long period of time and made their decision, exactly like they should have. We might not agree with the decision to not make an aggressive play for Darvish (I don’t), but there’s nothing we can do about it.

From here, nothing changes for the Yankees. They still need pitching, still need to shore up the bench, still need to add some general depth pieces, stuff like that. Unless they decide to dance with Scott Boras about Edwin Jackson, any starting pitching solution will likely come on a short-term, relatively low-risk deal, which is definitely preferable at this point. Darvish is risky, but he’s also incredibly talented. The kind of talent you’d usually roll the dice with. There’s a chance Cashman and Yankees will end up regretting their half-hearted pursuit of the righty, but I also don’t blame them for not submitting a bid north of $50M.

Categories : Hot Stove League


  1. theyankeewarrior says:

    Yu can’t *EVER* get what Yu want


    Post-2009 Yankees

  2. Bo Knows says:

    Does this mean we can start fantasizing about Masahiro Tanaka in pinstripes in the next 1-2 years?

  3. Cliff says:

    I just want some kind of explanation. Isn’t this exactly the kind of high-ceiling player the Yankees should be pursuing? Players with this upside don’t come along very often and they are what the Yankees need since they are limited primarily by the number of roster spots (presumably). Isn’t that the whole Yankee draft philosophy, go for high ceiling talent? Even if you end up over-paying, that’s okay for a #1/2 starter. Save some money on role players in positions where elite players are not available.

    • Rich in NJ says:

      They can’t afford under it?

    • YanksFan says:

      There’s a difference of giving over-slot money in the draft vs. over-slot money in the bidding process. In the draft you give an extra million. HUGE difference compared to 50 million to talk and another 75 million(?).

    • Jumpin' Jack Swisher says:

      They make decisions. Their decisions are more informed than ours. Therefore, they will not make the decisions we want them to all the time. If not, the article above would be making references to “GM Cliff (last name unknown.)”

      • Cliff says:

        I just would like to understand the thought process, since most analysis I have seen projects him as a #1/2 pitcher. At least we have this newest tidbit that they didn’t think his stuff would project to MLB, which makes me feel a little better (that it wasn’t a money issue or something at least).

  4. Rich in NJ says:

    As long as they don’t trade top prospects instead (which will be hard to replace under the new CBA), I’m ok with it, but their ability to out spend other teams should remain their edge. They just need to do it more smartly and more selectively than they sometimes have.

  5. tomaconda says:

    We wish Yu a merry Christmas!

  6. TheOneWhoKnocks says:

    I know this is still a $190m payroll, and that this cautious approach might bode better long term…But it sure was a lot more fun as a fan when you could count on the yanks to just outspend the competition every single time.

    I guess it has all caught up to us now, not much wiggle room financially. It will be fun to see the prospects get a chance now.

    • jsbrendog says:

      ah yes the outspending years of 01-08 which netted oh sooo many ws championships…wait…what’s that you say? buying everyone didn’t win any championships? well of course teixeira and burnett and cc did and that off season they bought everyone! well yes, i know that they were top flight players and not overpriced old dudes but…fine. fine.

      • Anchen says:

        Yeah but Yu is not an old dude, at least stuff-wise he is capable of being a #1, although we have no idea of routine/work ethic/injury risk. Assuming he signed a Daisuke like contract would not hit the cap that hard. So it was mostly about the posting fee…

        • Fernando says:

          But it has been said that the Darvish was against a big posting fee as that would cut into his salary. He’s been on the record as being against the posting system, as it means less money for the player. Another interesting tidbit is his divorce. If the Rangers lowball him, does he just go back to Japan and come back next year after his divorce is final?

  7. Sal says:

    Let the Yoenis Cespedes derby begin!!!!!!!!!

    Sign him and trade Swisher.

  8. Jim says:

    Can a team like the Rangers bid $100 million and then offer Darvish a $1 million contract with the sole purpose of him rejecting the offer and thus blocking other teams from signing him?

    • TheOneWhoKnocks says:

      See this question every day. Yes they could, but the commissioners office would probably cause a fuss, and it wouldn’t be worth upsetting the foreign market, the commissioners office, 29 other front offices. This isn’t a video game, actions have ramifications. You need to maintain credibility

      • Jim says:

        I figured as much, but was just wondering if there was some sort of specific guideline in place. Thanks for the reply.

      • JohnnyC says:

        How would you prove negotiating in bad faith if, say, the Rangers held fast to a 5 yrs/$50 million deal and Arn Tellem wouldn’t budge off 6 yrs/$90 million? That could very well happen. Darvish has more leverage than any previously posted player.

        • Mister Delaware says:

          I imagine Yu couldn’t prove bad faith in that instance, but Selig might try to finagle a trading of rights or something so Texas gets something and Darvish still comes to MLB.

    • Peter North says:

      No, if it’s thought that the bid-winning team did it in bad faith, they lose the rights and the next best bid will get it.

    • Thomas says:

      I believe if no deal is reached between the Rangers and Darvish, Nippon Ham can choose whether or not to accept the second highest posting fee and Darvish would then be able to negotiate with that team.

  9. Walt Flannigan says:

    Why are the Yankees seemingly not trying to make their team better. I understand the desire to make informed smart decisions but they refuse to spend money and refuse to give any prospects up for proven MLB pitchers. The old days of other teams giving the Yankees talented players for overhyped Yankee prospect trash are over. Ya gotta either spend money or give prospects if there is any hope of getting past the first round of the play-offs. Last year proved the scrubs in the rotation now (Sabathia excluded) will not give the Yanks a championship. Since wheen did winning the division become an acceptable goal for sports most storied franchise?

    • Holy Ghost says:

      If there are no good deals to be made then don’t make a deal


    • YanksFan says:

      They are willing to give up prospects in a trade. They refuse to overpay in prospects in a trade. Especially if the player you are getting is not a significant upgrade to the current roster.

      Please tell me how the 7 aces Bosox did not make the playoffs. Plese tell me how SF did. The only reason the pitching rich Rays made the playoffs was the 7 aces Bosox collapse. Did Philly have any championship parade this season.

      Please stop it w/ the pithcing wins championships. It’s teams that do. It’s a bullpen, it’s an offense, it’s defense. It’s having the best possible combo and w/ 97 wins last season it’s a damn good combo.

    • MattG says:

      Proved? The Cardinals won the World Series with Westbrook, Lohse and Jackson. What does that prove?

      Guess who had the best team ERA in the 2011 post-season? The NY Yankees, at 3.27.

      The pitching did not hurt the Yankees one bit last season. Best record in the American League, best post-season performance.

    • Jumpin' Jack Swisher says:

      Walt, perhaps you’d like to donate all your Yankee gear to the homeless since, clearly, the Yankees have tanked their franchise by not giving the highest bid on Yu Darvish? I’m sure there are many other teams out there who would love your fandom and optimistic outlook on things.

      • Walt Flannigan says:

        Its not just Darvish JJS open your mind its the new approach the Yankees have now. I’d like to know why the Team with the most resources is portraying themselves to be the Royals. Simple math….They have a need + They have the resources = Fill the need. But this aint happening…WHY?

        • Mister Delaware says:

          The team with the most resources most absolutely isn’t the Yankees, Walt.

          • Walt Flannigan says:

            How so? Farm system is looking better than in recent memory (yes thanks to Cashman) and seemingly endless amount of cash. Who has more resources?

            • coolerking101 says:

              Have to agree with Walt on this one. The Yankees make more money than another team, put more money into their team than any other franchise and have a top 10 farm system (with at least 3 top 100 players). I’d say by just about any measure, the Yanks have more resources than any team in baseball.

              That being said, just b/c you have the most resources doesn’t mean you should waste them. Obviously the team didn’t value Yu as a #1 starter. Given the 2013 free agent crop and propsects on the way, I can understand Cash not wanting to be tied down to a relatively unproven commodity for 100 million dollars.

              • Mister Delaware says:

                The Twins are owned by the Target empire.

                • coolerking101 says:

                  You are comparing apples to oranges Owners with resources vs teams with resources. There are plenty of owners with more resources than the Steinbrenners. Not one of them puts as much money into the team as the Steinbrenners. The Yanks clearly have more resources than any other team.

                  • Mister Delaware says:

                    No, the Yankees clearly use more resources than any other team. Huge distinction.

                  • Bryan says:

                    Great point. Teams owned by publicly owned teams are more likely to be budget conscious and risk averse than private ownership, even though they might have a higher market cap than the Steinbrenners’holdings.

                    Anyone with a finance background will tell you that the cashflow of publicly listed companies are closely guarded – either it’s reinvested or distributed to shareholders. It’s unlikely publicly owned teams will receive much money from their parent company – shareholders and the sharemarket are incredibly powerful stakeholders.

                    More often than not, these teams are expected to be self sufficient – though I suspect they would benefit from their parent company’s ability to obtain cheap debt.

        • JohnnyC says:

          What new approach are you talking about? Last I looked, the Yankees projected payroll for 2012 is still well north of $200 million…$30 million more than anybody else in the sport. You’d have a point if Cashman were cutting payroll for 2012. He’s not. They already have a 15+% payroll advantage over the next highest payroll in the game. How much more “advantage” do you want? A $300 million payroll? Why doesn’t Hal just buy the NPB? It’s probably worth less than half of what the Yankees are. That way we can use our resources properly by buying up entire nations of baseball players. Let’s see Texas top that!

          • Walt Flannigan says:

            I was talking about the rumored plan to cut payroll after 2012 which definately impacts contracts signed for 2012. If the Yankees were losing money or if their attendance fell to Rays or Marlins levels I would totally understand. I’m just confused why the Team that makes more money every year than they did the year prior plans to cut payroll.

            • YanksFan says:

              So they cut 10 milliion off their budget, whoop-de-damn-fuck-do. They still have the highest payroll and there is nobody out there last year or this year that was worth the money or fit a need, except for Lee. You know Lee – they guy the NYY actually put a huge offer on.

              Their austerity plan is not to overspend on garbage. I firmly believe that they will spend it on the high-end players that fit a need.

  10. If Hamels hits free agency next year and the Yankees sign him, no one here will remember Yu Darvish’s name.

    • The Big City of Dreams says:

      But if he signs an extension with them it will only get worse.

      • Mister Delaware says:

        And if he does sign with NY then has a bad first game, the world will end.

      • Peter North says:

        These are the calculated risks a GM takes. Remember not going for Santana and then signing Sabathia a year later? That worked out brilliantly. Let’s hope Cashman pulls another move like this. Besides, let’s see Darvish pitch before we get all bent out of shape over this.

        • The Big City of Dreams says:

          Let’s hope Cashman pulls another move like this.


          With teams locking up pitching like they have been I doubt it.

      • Dan says:

        It’s highly unlikely that this happens. Amaro has already said signing him to an extension is not a priority. Also, the Phillies are probably not going to have the money to re-sign him unless they want to go over the luxury tax. They will have about 110 million committed to six players that year and Pence going into his final year or arbitration should add that to 7 players and around 120-125.

        • The Big City of Dreams says:

          It’s highly unlikely that this happens. Amaro has already said signing him to an extension is not a priority.
          “But at some point we’ll get with his agent and start discussing things. We’ll see how it goes. If we get into a negotiation, it will probably be quiet, we’re not going to have public discussions about them, but at some point we’ll have those discussions, probably after the first of the year.”

          “I have got no indication that Cole wants to go anywhere and I think Cole knows we want to keep him,” Amaro said. “I

    • Dan says:

      +1 I think with the new MO of trying to get under the luxury tax within the next two seasons, they knew they couldn’t pay for both Hamels and Darvish and get under the tax. The Phillies have a significant amount of money locked up, so its unlikely that they will be able to extend Hamels before he hits free agency. Hamels is a smarter investment than Darvish.

      • Ted Nelson says:

        If they don’t intend to re-sign Hamels, they can choose to trade him for a long-term piece(s) rather than simply letting him walk. In that case there’s a good chance the acquiring team would intend to re-sign him.

        • Dan says:

          True, in which case the Yankees would have as good a chance at acquiring him via trade with the strong farm system they have. The Phillies could use a catcher and possible replacement for Hamels so offering something along the lines of Montero and a pitching prospect along with maybe one other piece might be enough.

          • Ted Nelson says:

            Trading Montero for Hamels might be a lateral move or a lot worse.

            • Mister Delaware says:

              Or a lot better. So trading Montero for Hamels could be good or bad or have no net result.

              • Ted Nelson says:

                Yep. My point is that there’s a major opportunity cost to acquiring Hamels via trade. If you’ll take my advice and enroll in some continuing education or CC classes… you’ll understand what I mean by opportunity cost. Because as I remember you are pretty fuzzy on the concept.

                • Mister Delaware says:

                  Absolutely, I added “”opportunity cost”” (note the double quotes) to my “Ted Nelson Dictionary” months ago. I’ll copy and paste for everyone else …

                  “Opportunity Cost”: Anything else that could conceivably happen (The opportunity cost of the Yankees trading Montero includes attempting to convert Montero into a reliever to replace the great Mariano Rivera)

                  • Ted Nelson says:

                    I added “I am a mind reader who knows what MLB front offices are thinking” to my Mr. Delaware dictionary.

                    If you don’t think the prospects/players traded to get Hamels are part of the opportunity cost of acquiring him, I don’t know what to tell you.

        • JohnnyC says:

          But the Phillies are going to be contenders. Having Hamels pitch them to another WS title far outweighs the benefits of trading him for prospects or even cheaper major league players. Unlike KC or Oakland, who have no real hopes of contending, the Phillies are win-now.

          • Ted Nelson says:

            They were in win-now mode when they traded Lee, too.

            They could pick up a true #3 starter and fill another hole or two… while saving a ton of money vs. Hamels. They could trade his straight up for a similarly productive hitter. Trading Hamels doesn’t have to mean winning fewer games.

        • YanksFanInBeantown says:

          I doubt they trade him, they’re in win-now mode. You don’t trade one of your best pitchers when you’re in contention.

          • Ted Nelson says:

            Says who? The Phillies traded their best pitcher when they were in contention when they traded Lee. They don’t have to get worse by trading Hamels. They could actually get better. Their offense is very middle of the road, so there’s plenty of room for improvement.

            I highly doubt that they let Hamels walk simply to contend this season.

            • Mister Delaware says:

              They traded Lee in December.

              • Ted Nelson says:

                What month is it right now? Haven’t checked my calendar today…

                • Mister Delaware says:

                  How is a team “in contention” in December.

                  • Ted Nelson says:

                    They entered that season as contenders… just as they will 2012. In December 2009 the Phillies were coming off back-to-back WS trips and returning largely the same team. So if they were willing to deal Lee at that time in an attempt to improve their team, how can one say for certain that they are unwilling to trade Hamels if they already know they’re not re-signing the guy?

                    • Mister Delaware says:

                      How can someone know a team is “in contention” 4+ months before the first game of the season is played? So much unanswered here …

        • Sweet Dick Willie says:

          Not saying your scenario is impossible, but I believe it is improbable because:
          1) the Phillies will in all likelihood contend for the NL East in 2012, so it is unlikely that they would deal a key cog in their rotation unless they had a commanding lead (and even then it’s unlikely, as Hamels could be quite valuable during the playoffs), and
          2) even if they decided to trade him, they may not get the equivalent of the two draft picks because the acquiring team won’t get the picks, so unless he agrees to an extension, the offer would be quite minimal. And if he’s that close to free agency, he may want to choose where he plays, rather than sign an extension with the team that happened to give the Phillies the best deal.

          • Ted Nelson says:

            They can trade him right now if they have no interest in re-signing him. Doesn’t have to be mid-season.

            My contention isn’t that they will trade him. It’s that if they aren’t planning to keep him long-term, there’s a good chance that they trade him rather than letting him walk. I think they’re planning on keeping him. Of course, they might offer him a ton of money and he might still might leave.

    • Jose M. Vazquez.. says:

      The way this team acted on the Yu Darvish issue, I don’t think they will be doling out any big (CC like) contracts in the near future. Thus, I don’t expect any signing of Hamels or Cain even if they are available in the near future.

    • MattG says:

      I have to disagree. Hamels is obviously more proven, but he is several years older, and as an unrestricted free agent, will get more years at close to double the AAV, all of which will be subject to the luxury tax. If the Yankees didn’t see the value in Darvish, I don’t see them having that much interest in Hamels.

      • Ted Nelson says:

        Their opinions on the two pitchers might be completely different. Value involves not only the price of the player, but also the quality of their performance.

        If Hamels hits free agency next off-season they also might be looking at a different situation… say Nova and Noesi flame out, Hughes flames out again, and the Bs keep walking everyone. Different situation than if all 5 of those guys are looking like front-end starters.

  11. Dan 2 says:

    Anyone who does not understand the enormity of a $200 million payroll and the magnitude of a $51 million bid, and holds the opinion that the Yankees need to spend more should consider running for Congress. You have all of the characteristics of politicians where spending other people’s money is a virtue, not a problem

    • David, Jr. says:

      The problem with this is that the Yankees have not been consistent with your thinking.

      Soriano – A relief pitcher who wasn’t even particularly necessary. Go for it! Balls out!

      Jeter – A shortstop who can still hit but can’t play the position at all and will soon be 40 yrs old. Give him at least twice what anybody else would! Balls out!

      Darvish – A 25 yr old starter, which is definitely a position of need. All scouting reports off the charts positive. No way! We have a budget!

      • YanksFan says:

        Soriano – 33 million over 3 years.

        Jeter – 25 milliion overpay over 3 years. Team Icon.

        Darvish – 125 million over 5 years?

        Do you not see a difference. Darvish is not a guarantee. CC 125 is a lot different than Darvish for 125.

      • TheOneWhoKnocks says:

        ^^^ This times a billion. The team is practicing financial restraint at the worst of times. Cliff Lee and Darvish hit the market? Get outbid by multiple teams. Soriano and Jeter hit the market and they are bidding against themselves. We should be overpaying for a starting pitcher, it’s been our biggest need for a decade.

        • Ted Nelson says:

          They didn’t get outbid on Cliff Lee.

          • Plank says:

            The contracts were different. But financially, Cliff Lee will be richer taking the offer he took. The only way that’s not true is if his arm falls off and he retires in 4 years. The he’ll have made 7.5 million less than the Yankees offer.

            • Ted Nelson says:

              See below.

              • Plank says:

                So does that mean you’re changing your statement?

                They offered a contract and the Phillies offered a contract. Lee took the better contract. How exactly is that not getting outbid?

                • Ted Nelson says:

                  If Mike shuts off comments on this page after I post this, that doesn’t mean you got out-posted. The bidding ended before they had a chance to make their final bid.

                  They also didn’t show financial restraint. They bid a ton of money and were very vocal about their intentions to sign Lee.

                  Have fun trolling.

                  • Plank says:

                    I don’t know what out-posted means, but the Phillies offered a better contract, to me that means they outbid every other team. I don’t know why you are insisting it doesn’t.

                    They also didn’t show financial restraint.

                    Ah, the TN special. Who anywhere suggested this? Nice attempt to change the discussion.

                    They bid a ton of money and were very vocal about their intentions to sign Lee.

                    They did offer a contract for a lot of money, just not as competitive as the Phillies offer. Cashman was pretty tight lipped about Lee, he was not vocal at all about his intention to sign Lee.

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      Ah… the Plank special. Ignore the actual issue at hand to annoy the other commenter. This tangent started with TheOneWhoKnocks’ comment… and that’s exactly what was said. Pull your head out of your ass for a second.

                      “Cashman was pretty tight lipped about Lee, he was not vocal at all about his intention to sign Lee.”

                      A team isn’t going to go around showing all it’s cards. Vocal may have been the wrong word, but they made it pretty clear they wanted Lee and he was a priority.

                    • Mister Delaware says:

                      I thought that was my specialty. Or is it everyone’s when trying to deal with multi-paragraph ever-moving rants?

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      No, there are plenty of decent commenters on here who aren’t just looking to troll.

                      You also ignore the issue at hand, but you’re doing it to get a laugh. You seem to view this as your own little amusement blog, rather than a Yankee blog. Plank just does it to be annoying. You end up being annoying, but I don’t believe that’s your main goal. I am pretty convinced that’s literally Plank’s goal. A good portion of his comments are 100% off-topic, relating back to previous conversations.

                    • Plank says:

                      Please tell me where I’ve been off topic in this thread. I pointed out your factually inaccurate statement by showing the actual contracts offered and how that proved your statement wrong.

                      You then said that what you meant was that the Yankees didn’t get a chance to make a higher bid.

                      You then claim the Yankees didn’t show financial restraint (something comepletely unrelated to anything said at that point) said the bid a ton of money (true, but not enough to sign Lee) and claimed Cashman was vocal about his desire to sign Lee (untrue).

                      After that you called me a troll. Then in another few posts after that proceed to personally attack me and accuse me of the very thing you are doing.

                      It’s incredible. I’ve kept it strictly to baseball here. Until now.

                    • Plank says:

                      I just made a simple comment highlighting how when you said “They didn’t get outbid on Cliff Lee.” It could have ended by saying “My bad” or “Oops” or “well, yes, but the overall total dollars of the minimum possible amounts are higher for the Yankees contracts” or anything else. Instead you kept trying to morph the conversation to try to show that you were in fact correct and it inevitably resulted in you spewing attacks since you don’t have a leg to stand on.

                      The next time you are wondering why these arguments always happen to you, this is a good example.

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      Did I ever limit the scope of what I was talking about to this thread?

                      The Yankees were right in the ballpark on Cliff Lee. We can quibble over which rumors were more accurate, but that’s semantics.

                      Yes, it was mentioned. That was the comment that actually started that conversation. Again, remove your head from your ass.

                      Stop crying. Bickering about whether the Yankees were slightly over or slightly under the Phillies offer based on rumors is not baseball.

                    • Ted Nelson says:

                      I am not wondering anything. I do not feel they got outbid on Lee. You see things differently.

                    • Plank says:


          • JohnnyC says:

            They were never given the chance to counter Philly’s offer. They weren’t outbid and neither were the Rangers for that matter. Lee’s decision was based on personal choice rather than money per se.

            • Plank says:

              The Yankees offered a contract that financially was worse than the contract the Phillies offered. The ‘bid’ they put in was lower than others.

        • Rookie says:

          Amen, TheOneWhoeKnocks. Amen. I couldn’t possibly agree with you more.

      • Gonzo says:

        To be fair, we don’t know what the Yankees’ scouting reports were on Darvish. Unless they released them and I am unaware of it.

      • Rookie says:

        I’m with you 100%, David.

        I have an extremely high regard for Cashman and his recent decision making. As is very well known, he was against the A-Rod, Soriano, and Jeter deals as done. And I realize that they know more about Darvish today than I’ll ever know.

        Still, I am absolutely mystified (A) that the Yankees did not bid more aggressively, and (B) that the Red Sox didn’t bid at all, and (C) that the winning bid was only $51.7 million.

        I can only conclude that it’s some combination of: (A) we’re way, way off in terms of what Darvish is likely to bring to the party in terms of ERA, innings pitched, etc., and/or (B) there’s something on the personal side that the Yankees don’t like, and/or (C) they don’t expect Darvish to sign under the posting process and think they can sign him as a free agent, and/or (D) the Yankees are in worse shape financially than I think they are, and/or (E) they fear that the posting fee will retroactively be amortized and deemed to be included in the luxury tax calculation, and/or (F) they think it’s a smart move politically not to bid.

        EVERY pitcher is a roll of the dice with a long-term contract — Darvish and CC included. But I’m with you and Plank that the available evidence suggests to me that Darvish is likely to be a high level front end starter for years to come. Again, all things considered, he looks like a better bet than CC with two knee operations and 280 or so pounds to carry around.

        Time will tell if you and Plank and I are the ones who are off base or not.

    • Peter North says:

      Haha nice one!

    • Walt Flannigan says:

      And anyone who actuallt believes the Yankees sudden cry of poverty as they practically print their own money with all the revenue they get while at the same time raising ticket prises should become a CEO in Corporate America.

      • David, Jr. says:

        Total Yankee revenue from all sources – $825,000,000.

        Just a pertinent fact.

        • Mike Axisa says:

          What are their expenses?

          • gc says:

            Obviously that’s not relevant. Derek Jeter turns 40 in 2014. That’s all that matters.

          • Peter North says:

            Luxury tax/revenue sharing in 2010 – $130,000,000

          • David, Jr. says:

            I don’t know, Mike. I would like to know that. I am confident in the 825, as I spent some time accumulating that, but I can’t find an expense number.

          • Plank says:

            $189MM for player payroll


          • Plank says:

            I would imagine their draft and IFA spending is available somewhere. It wasn’t on the first page of google, so I stopped looking. I would also imagine their minor league expenses are similar to every other team and that information is also available.

            What else is there besides:

            -(front office salaries)
            -minor leagues and new players
            -(taxes) (maybe someone can approxomate?)
            -revenue sharing/luxury tax
            -centralized MLB expenses (these are paid by the money pooled by the league before that money is split between the teams)
            -advertising (I’m stretching now)

            What else is there?

            • Plank says:

              Payroll – 210MM
              Stadium – 65 MM
              Front Office Salaries – ???
              Minor Leagues operations and scouting – 10-15MM (forbes)
              Taxes – ??? Though I imagine we would all be shocked at how low the number is.
              Revenue Sharing/Luxury Tax – 130MM
              Centralized expenses – ??? Though I imagine most of it just comes out of the national TV contracts and MLBAM
              Healthcare – 10MM
              Advertising- ??? Though not much if they advertise on YES. How much do they really advertise? A few times to sell season tickets during the offseason in the Post and the NY Times?

              Are there any other expenses you can think of?

              That’s 425 million before taxes, FO salaries, and advertising. Yeah, I’d say they turn a healthy profit.

        • Gonzo says:

          I thought it was less. Do they still split Yes revenue 3 ways?

        • Gonzo says:

          I hate to be that guy, but where did you see that was the revenue? I don’t see it unless you are counting all YES revenue. The Yankees only own 34% of YES.

      • Jumpin' Jack Swisher says:

        $189 million = not a cry of poverty. Nice try again, Walt.

  12. JoeyA says:

    Cash is putting his whole stake in Banuelos/Bettances. If these 2 guys don’t pan out, Yankees will Be in trouble for starting pitching.

    Long gone are the days we cab throw money at the best SP. Teams hold on to such a commodity as long as possible,

    • TomH says:

      BINGO! We have the winning comment. You’re right. The fact is that this is potentially a lousy rotation. That is, IFF AJ and Hughes live down to their recent form, and if Freddy’s junk machine finally stops working, this rotation has a high probability of being quite bad, second division bad.

      If Cash makes no moves and if the rotation goes south, he has to count on kids to get him through. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t. It’s a dice roll.

      • Ted Nelson says:

        He’s not counting on two kids, though.

        He’s counting on a reasonable rotation emerging between CC, Nova, Hughes, Garcia, Burnett, Noesi, Phelps, Warren, and maybe Betances or Banuelos. There’s a good chance that those guys enter the season as the #9 & 10 starters… or maybe lower if they sign Kuroda. Not on having 5 aces. Just a couple of front-end starters, a reasonable mid-rotation starter, and a couple of back-end starters between those options. Burnett has stunk each of the last two seasons, thrown 185+ innings in 32+ starts… and they’ve still been in the playoffs both seasons.

    • Jumpin' Jack Swisher says:

      Manny Banuelos and Dellin Betances are the last two people on earth who can pitch!

      I do not want to be around when they make them mate in order to repopulate the earth.

      • Walt Flannigan says:


        • Jumpin' Jack Swisher says:

          …..who’s been around here much longer than you have, Hester.

          Finding the dumbassness in your comments doesn’t make me a troll. However…

          • Walt Flannigan says:

            You have nothing to add of any value you just rip aprt other people comments. (not just mine) If you think the fact that you have been “around here” longer gives you some kind of excuse to be a Troll then you are mistaken. Everyone has opinions none right or wrong because they are……guess what? OPINIONS! So people like you who thrive on crapping all over other peoples opinions are without a doubt Trolls. You sir are a Troll.

    • Ted Nelson says:

      Cashman is “putting his whole stake in” Banuelos and Betances… who are likely to be in AAA this season… but not in Nova, Hughes, Noesi, Warren, Phelps, CC, AJ, and Garcia?

  13. TheOneWhoKnocks says:

    Hamels will hit FA at age 29 and is looking at a 7 year contract of over 20m AAV, or more. Even if we get him, it’s going to come at an astronomical cost, and we’d be paying for his decline years. Darvish was a unique opportunity to get an elite pitcher through his prime years at a potential discount. The risk is obviously huge, but I’d rather they have taken that risk then wait another season with a crappy rotation for a pitcher who may or not be available. How many years are supposed to pass where a team with a $200m payroll has 1 reliable starter? This is getting ridiculous.

    • Rookie says:

      Exactamundo again, TheOneWhoKnocks. Exactamundo.

      The only thing I disagree with is that I wouldn’t mind waiting as long as it took if I thought that that were the smart thing to do. To my less informed, amateur eyeballs, Darvish was, as you say, a unique opportunity. I’ll be very curious to see whether or not my eyes and my brain deceived me.

    • ` says:

      elite pitcher, that hasn’t thrown a pitch in the MLB yet?

  14. brett says:

    I’m shocked they didn’t know igawa’s best pitch before they invested all that money on him. It really wasn’t that long ago and they are a multi-millionaire corporation.

  15. Mister Delaware says:

    There’s not really a single person to respond to, but I have a general question? Are you guys like this in real life or just when it comes to baseball or the internet. Like if you go to a restaurant and the waiter tells you they’re all out of the scallops, do you just melt down and declare everything ruined?

    • Walt Flannigan says:

      Melt down no but if the place is called The Scallop Barn and they do nothing but hype that they are the best resteraunt for scallops in all the world then I probably would expect a reasonable explanation as to why they are out of scallops.

      • Ted Nelson says:

        The Yankees aren’t out of baseball players, though. They’re returning a 97 win team with one of the strongest farm systems in baseball bringing up some very promising prospects in the next couple of years. You don’t need to sign Pujols for 10 years or Fielder for 8 years when you’ve got Montero. You don’t need to sign a front-end starter when you’re got Nova, Hughes, and Noesi, plus Betances and Banuelos right behind them.

        It’s more comparable to the Scallop Barn not having some rare Japanese scallop you wanted, but having 500 other varieties of scallops and scallop dishes.

        • Plank says:

          They’re returning a 97 win team minus 164.1 IP of 111 ERA+.

          • Ted Nelson says:

            Plus Montero replacing Posada’s below replacement production. Plus Hughes possibly not being hurt this season. Plus Soriano possibly being healthy. Plus Nunez possibly not making 300000 errors so he’s above replacement. Plus Noesi, Phelps, Warren, Betances, and Banuelos all being one year closer.

            And the off-season isn’t over.

            • Plank says:

              How does that help your assertion that they are returning the same team as last year?

              • Ted Nelson says:

                That was not my assertion. My assertion was that they’re returning largely the same team as last season.

                Again, stop being a troll. You get so involved in arguing with people that you totally ignore the actual issue.

                • Plank says:

                  My assertion was that they’re returning largely the same team as last season.

                  And you attempt to show this by highlighting all the moves they’ve made?

                  They do have largely the same team (which isn’t what you said) but the idea that Montero will come in and rake isn’t a guarantee, it’s a decent possibility, but lots of phenoms don’t mash in their first year.

                  The rotation is significantly worse. Losing Colon and his extremely productive year (even though no one would reasonably expect him to reproduce it) is a loss that hasn’t been countered with anything. You mentioned Noesi and the minor league pitchers. Do you think they can pitch near full time with a 111 ERA+? I don’t. Not in 2012.

                  Regarding Nunez’s “300000″ errors, I don’t think the number was quite that high. You mention a lot of things that could happen. Excellent analysis.

                  • Ted Nelson says:

                    I really can’t argue with you any more. Your stupidity knows no bounds. I will answer, and then I’m ignoring your comments.

                    I highlighted the internal improvement and potential improvement made with the same roster.

                    Montero is not a move. He was already on the roster. Phil Hughes? On the roster.

                    Yes, I think Hughes can do that. Yes, I think AJ can do that. Yes, I think Nova can do that for a full season. Yes, I think Noesi can do that. You can disagree. That doesn’t mean I’m wrong.

                    All that we can discuss about next season is what could happen. That’s how the future works. If it’s already happened, it’s in the past.

                    Pull your head out of your ass and stop assuming you are always right. Quite often you are wrong. Instead of attacking the semantics of people’s arguments, try talking baseball.

                    • Plank says:

                      Thanks for keeping it strictly to baseball and not involving insults. I don’t feel I’ve made insults. Please enlighten me for where I’ve done this.

                      That’s a very high projection of Noesi. Why do you think that?

      • Mister Delaware says:

        Who the fuck would go to a place called “The Scallop Barn”?

        Mister D.
        Superfan of the defending AL East Champion New York Japanese Posting Process Winners

    • Gonzo says:

      Not the exact scene I was looking for but it’ll do.

    • thenamestsam says:

      I don’t think it’s really a fair analogy. For one, I haven’t really seen anyone melting down, which might be why you don’t have a specific comment to reply to. What I’ve seen is people expressing disappointment, most of it pretty tempered. If I went to a restaurant and wanted to have the scallops and the waiter said they were all out: Yeah, I’d be disappointed. And if I was posting on a blog with a bunch of other people who went to the same restaurant and none of them got the scallops either, we’d probably discuss how that was a little disappointing. None of that seems unreasonable to me.

      Are we spoiled? Sure. Just like at the restaurant I should probably think to himself: “Self, you are so lucky to be in a restaurant where you can order scallops when people everywhere are hungry, you should just order the steak and not be disappointed at all” in this situation I should probably think: “Self, you are so lucky to root for a team that is already good when people everywhere are mets fans, you shouldn’t be disappointed at all.” I think it’s basically the human condition to be upset when you don’t get something you want. Unless you’re Tim Tebow.

      • Mister Delaware says:

        Disappointment is fine. I’m disappointed, I thought walking around Boston in a Darvish shirtsey would have been a lot of fun. Its the “we’re screwed” attitude. “Doesn’t Cashman want to win”, “how can my favorite team, one of thirty, not get everyone I want” blah, blah, blah. Darvish would help. We are not screwed without Darvish.


    • Jimmy says:

      But those bastards over at that Texas table got scallops!!!!!

  16. Paul VuvuZuvella says:

    I’ve moved on, Yu should too.

  17. YanksFan says:

    My father-in-law would be. And I love the guy.

    That’s the thing about sports. It allows you to be as irrational and fanatic as you want to be. I don’t like the attitude but people don’t care when it’s not their money.

    • YanksFan says:

      Meant as a reply to Mr. Delaware.

    • Mister Delaware says:

      “It allows you to be as irrational and fanatic as you want to be …”

      I think this is a lot of it. I long ago accepted my irrationality of caring about whether 25 people I don’t know throw balls of string and hit it with pieces of wood better than 25 other people I don’t know but really don’t like. I’ve never really understood the irrationality of analyzing the front office stuff. I’ve always thought the fun of sports is rational discourse on the best way to assemble a team, then 3 hours every day or so of irrationality while watching that team play.

      (I also hate science fiction because “that can’t happen”. So this speaks to me just as much as anyone I’m finding annoying right now.)

  18. neo says:

    Will a list of all other bids (including the Yankees) get published? Or is it a blind system meaning you only find out what the other bids are from leaks from the various front offices?

  19. YanksFan says:

    I have no problems with not getting Yu. While I would like to have him on the team I would not have taken a gamble as these figures. 30 million bid and if we get him – Yeah.

    I like the idea of Kuroda on a 1 year deal. Gives you a ton of flexibility. See how the youngsters do in AAA. See how the pitching market does early in 2012. You get a better idea of any talks about extensions for the Hamels, etc. of the 2012 FA class.

  20. Ted Nelson says:

    -Asking a player what he thinks his best pitch is doesn’t mean you don’t already have your own opinion. If the Yankees signed CJ Wilson or some other MLB veteran, they might also ask him what he thinks of his own stuff. And do you really expect Torre to go on international scouting trips or have much input on such decisions?
    It’s pretty hard to imagine that even after signing the guy the front office hadn’t at least seen a scouting report detailing what pitches he throws. A google search will literally turn up a scouting report from before he was bid on. For your conclusion that Cashman didn’t know what pitches he threw to accurate… we have to assume either Cashman wasn’t asked at all to look into the guy and didn’t take it upon himself to look into the guy once he was signed, or that he’s an incompetent buffoon who can’t use google or manage his scouts.

    -They don’t need pitching. It would be nice to get some more certainty at the front-end of the rotation, but they’ve got 10+ candidates for their rotation right now. They may or may not want more pitching, but they certainly don’t need it right now.

  21. noseeum says:

    For me, there’s always a bright side to the Yankees not signing a high priced player: The Yankees clearly have far more bullets in their clip than any other team in baseball. Each time another team uses one of theirs for a long term deal, it puts a real dent in their future flexibility.

    The Angels and Rangers have spent a lot of money this offseason, which means they won’t be able to battle the Yankees for players they may want in the future.

    I personally think this was a great year to avoid a big sign. Every major free agent has huge questions marks, is too expensive, or plays a position the Yankees don’t need.

    Not having CJ Wilson or Yu Darvish for 2012 might make things a little more difficult, but there will be plenty of great players available in the coming years.

  22. CS Yankee says:

    First off…I wish Yu nothing but the best (except for us in the postseason).

    I can see where he could compete for The CYA this year based upon his league (AAA+) stats and that pitchers usually have the advantage the first few times against the batters. It would be weird facing him in the tie-breaker WC game…which is where, unless Kuroda happens, I project them to be in October.

    The Kei experment was a disaster from the get-go. I recall after the posting that Cash said something like a back-end starter…which is crazy talk to spend 46M$ on a 4/5 SP. My view is that was a knee-jerk reaction to the MSM hype that Dice-K would bring all this exposure/$ to the Saux.

    I don’t get that they didn’t submit a Matsui-like offer (55M$) due to the cap and needs for a co-ace. I really, really hope that the FO/scouts see that the Noesi/B’s are a safer bet long term. $125M for a probable ace versus waiting for an ace to either develop or be had thru free agency.

    • MattG says:

      Totally off topic, but it popped into my head as I read this. Wouldn’t it be a hoot if the Ns (Nova & Noesi) turned out to be what we think the Bs will be? Nova and Noesi have had no hype, but it’s not always what you do at 19 that counts. Some players find things at 22-24.

  23. jason says:

    Picture this – Yu hits a home run during an inter-league game. Sterling proclaims, “Yu are something sort of Darvish!!!!” Alas, it was not to be.

  24. paranoid android says:

    Cashman: “Hey guys, sorry about the Darvish thing, but hey, I did bring back Gustavo Molina. That’s got to be worth something, right?”

  25. It'sATarp says:

    It’s Kuroda time?

  26. Jumpin' Jack Swisher says:

    “Yu can’t always get what Yu want but, if you try sometimes, you might get 15 wins out of Hector Noesi.” – an actual Jagger/Richards outtake. It’s on the Superduper Deluxe Edition of “Let it Bleed.”

  27. JohnC says:

    Sign Kuroda, Cespedes and Soler and call it an offseason

    • Nathan says:

      If the Yankees were unwilling to spend on Darvish, a player who plays a position of great need, I doubt they will spend on a player who plays a position with no vacancy.

      A trade is possible but I doubt the Yankees would simply plug Cespedes into the outfield right away.

    • Jumpin' Jack Swisher says:

      I’m with you on Kuroda. The rest are expensive rolls of the dice. Bring back Chavez and, maybe, Jones, and expect to have to actually do some work in 2012 with the starting rotation. Sometimes, even the Yankees have to roll their sleeves up a bit during the season.

  28. Nathan says:

    I think Cash & Co have set a precedence by not spending on big ticket FAs since post-2009 (throw out Soriano who was Levine’s call). I think they will continue to look for low-risk, moderate-reward players such as Martin, Garcia and Colon. With the idiotic luxury tax and current payroll/contracts, I think we’re seeing the start of a new day.

    I have a bad feeling that this will come back to haunt the Yankees in the coming years when good young pitching gets resigned before hitting free agency (likely Cain) or will the asking price will be too much (likely Hamels). I had a bad feeling when the Yankees couldn’t pull off a trade for Haren for prospects. And when the Jays made Halladay available, I thought the Yankees would have made any prospect available but obviously thought the asking price was too high. In hindsight, which Yankee prospects have made any substantial impact? Hughes/Joba…neither has produced two consecutive productive seasons. Montero? So far a portion of a season, so doesn’t apply. If the Yankees are unwilling to spend the cash to acquire talent, then they must realize that they are going to have to trade talent for talent. Cash & Co so far have taken a “if something good falls into my lap” approach which requires a good bit of luck.

    • Kevin says:

      You’re forgetting one thing…Toronto was NEVER going to trade within the division.

      • Nathan says:

        I wouldn’t say NEVER but they def. would have made it expensive. Hindsight, I don’t know what package of Yankee prospects I would have said “NO” in exchange for Halladay.

        Well, except a package of everything.

    • Sweet Dick Willie says:

      In hindsight, which Yankee prospects have made any substantial impact?

      Cano. Wang. Gardner.

      • Nathan says:

        By which prospects I meant which prospects at time…Cano, Wang and Gardner were already with the club.

        I was referring to the prospect group of Hughes, Joba, IPK, Montero, and that group.

        • Rob H. says:

          You are cherry-picking the prospects that you want to use for your argument. Cano, Wang, Gardner were prospects who made substantial impacts when they were finally brought up and given the chance to play. Hughes and Joba both have made impacts with this team to varying degrees. IPK was traded for Granderson. I’d say that’s an immediate impact of sorts. Montero is just now getting to the big club so you really can’t say anything on him yet.

  29. Monteroisdinero says:

    Healthy ARod, Montero for 5-600 at bats, better year from Tex, Swish contract year and some AAA contribution and we are right there.

    All is well.

  30. Jumpin' Jack Swisher says:

    The only time I ever had an empty feeling (in recent years – the empty pit was a fixure from about 87-93) in the pit of my stomach was when the team went all-in on Cliff Lee and struck out. I was proven wrong when Cashman pulled a solid rotation out of his ass and the team won 97 games.

  31. Jesse says:

    Like I said before, sign Kuroda, Cespedes, and fill out the bench.

  32. Doc Holliday says:

    George must be rolling over in his grave. For the 2nd time in two years we get outbid by a Texan that has far less money and resources at his disposal? Unacceptable. If George was alive he would have offered $55 million. The 90s Yankees never would have lost out on CJ, Yu, and Pujols.

  33. Rockdog says:

    From David Cameron:

    If Darvish gets 5/75, Rangers would need ~23 WAR through ’16 to justify $125M payout. 9 SPs have done that in last 5 years. #NoPressure

    • Holy Ghost says:

      Stop making sense!

    • Mister Delaware says:

      Eh, I don’t entirely buy that logic. Its marginal utility you’re looking for here, not a perfect return, especially on the free agent market. Given baseball’s current structure, its pretty much impossible for free agents to be expected to “earn their wins” with so much of that total eaten up by < 6 year players with artificially low salaries.

      • Rockdog says:

        I agree, and there is a winners curse at work too, because (of course) the highest bid gets the player. I think Cameron’s point was more to try to quantify what is priced in to a $125M contract for a pitcher.

  34. Drew says:

    Trolls gonna troll

    Yu isn’t a proven commodity, he has potential but to pay 50 million to just negotiate for potential is stupid. I am glad the Yankees didn’t completely overreact just like half the people on here.

  35. Rockdog says:

    Just to add to this — we are talking about Cliff Lee money for a guy who has not thrown a major league pitch! Now, to be fair, Darvish is a lot younger than Lee and has some serious upside (although the problems that most other pitchers from Japan have had in the major leagues should be considered). Still, even recognizing that the posting fee will not be hit with luxury tax, it is totally reasonable to think that this is an overpay … and perhaps a big one.

  36. Kevin says:

    I guess a lot of people miss the 1980′s..that’s what happened when George called the shots.

  37. Kurt says:

    Jon Daniels and the Rangers took a huge risk that’s hard to understand. They could have retained their own guy, CJ Wilson for $75M. Wilson won 31 games for them over the past two years with an ERA right around 3.0. Instead, they chose to spend $125M+ on a guy who has never pitched in the majors. I can’t imagine the potential upside with Darvish is worth the $ differential and risk factor. It sounds like they panicked after the recent moves by the Angels.

  38. JoeyA says:

    I love the comments of “Yu isn’t a proven commodity”

    Guess what: Neither are the prospects the Yankees are banking on.

    Let’s call a spade a spade: Cashman isn’t going to give away Banuelos, Bettances or Montero for anything less than an ace, which no team is willing to trade. Less and less of these guys are hitting the open market, while more are being traded by small-mid market teams whom are unable to provide 100M+ contract for large prospect hauls, a deal Yankees have shown are unwilling to make.

    Cash & Co. are trying to drop payroll below $189M by 2014. This all points to Cash not making a move (whether in FA or by trade) and let the rotation resemble : CC/Nova/Hughes/Bettances/Banuelos by 2013 barring any unforeseen happenings, which is typically more likely than not.

    IMO, Darvish represented a great opportunity for the Yankees. His posting fee is strictly $$, doesn’t count against payroll and, more importantly, the luxury tax. The Yankees would have seen at least half that back from advertising, Japanese media coverage, etc. alone, much like Matsui.

    His contract would have been 5/70M, which is a steal for that track record, which is phenomenal for a 25 yr old. I don’t care bout the differences in league, the man has TALENT. If DiceK can be a mediocre pitcher here, this kid can be a #2.

    Also, if this is the lone big contract we hand out this yr and next yr from $ on top of what we’d be losing in the coming years, why not? He’s 25 yrs old. You are pying for PRIME YEARS. Aren’t these the contracts we always wish the Yankees would have, instead of paying a FA SP whose 31 for his 32-36yrs?

    If we’re so confident in the kids, why not have another “prospect” on the club, granted an expensive prospect, but a tremendous talent nonetheless.

    • Holy Ghost says:

      “If we’re so confident in the kids, why not have another “prospect” on the club, granted an expensive prospect, but a tremendous talent nonetheless.”

      Prospects generally don’t cost Cliff Lee/Sabathia type money. Strausburg costed the Nationals $15 million and I haven’t seen anyone project Darvish’s upside to be as high as Strausburg’s.

      As much as it would make sense for the Yankees to aquire Darvish, there comes a point where the financial risks exceed the potential benefits.

    • FIPster Doofus says:

      “I love the comments of “Yu isn’t a proven commodity”

      Guess what: Neither are the prospects the Yankees are banking on.”

      Guess what: The prospects the Yankees are banking on aren’t costing the organization $125 million each.

    • Horrendous argument. Comparing Darvish to top prospects is silly. They don’t have anywhere near the cost of Darvish. It’s more like signing a high priced, but un-proven, free agent. You also act like the posting fee is Monopoly money. Just because it isn’t included in the salary or against the luxury cap doesn’t mean that it not a cost, or that it won’t come away from their budget.

      • Rockdog says:

        +1 This are key points, only signing Darvish is like signing a really expensive prospect. He is clearly talented, but we do not know how he will do against Major League hitters. Hell, there are a bunch of folks on this site that don’t like the idea of the Yankees signing National League pitchers, and the NL is a much tougher league than Japan. Even if the contract is less than $75 M (call it $50-60M), that is still $100M or more for a high quality prospect … that is a lot of coin.

      • Bryan says:

        People on this board are suggesting Darvish is a significant risk without attempting to quantify what sort of risk he was. Unlike in 2006 when Dice K was posted, we have the benefit of hindsight. Dice K is a good barometer of the risks involved with Darvish.

        He clearly wasn’t worth the $100m investment, some suggest he was worth half that, with WAR figures of 10 being thrown around.

        It’s clear Darvish is a better pitcher than Dice K ever was, therefore an investment greater than $50m appears justified. Anything greater than that and you’re balancing the financial outlay against the other risks already mentioned such as different routine, mound, ball, better hitters. Comparing Dice K and Darvish’s workload and pitchcounts: the injury risk and the sustainability of success are big factors against investing too much on Darvish.

    • Bo Knows says:

      a $400,000 risk is alot easier to swallow if they bust than a $100,000,000+ risk that busts.

      I wanted Darvish too but I didn’t want the Yankees to have to spend $52 million posting to do it.

  39. Tyler says:

    Andrew Marchand @AndrewMarchand 15m Details
    Source with knowledge of the bidding: Yanks bid less than $20M for Darvish. I don’t know exact #, but less than $20M, definitely

    Now we know they were never really serious about signing him. It seems they decided he wasn’t worth the risk and I tend to agree.

  40. WayneD says:

    There’s no logic to the Yankees’ approach this off season. They needed to add a #2 or #3 starter via free agency. Two seemingly legitimate candidates were available: CJ Wilson, a proven MLB pitcher who pitched in a hitters park, and Yu Darvish, an unproven MLB pitcher with awesome stats in Japan.

    As JoeyA wrote, I’m amused by the comments that Darvish isn’t a proven commodity. And what? Banuelos, Bettances, Hughes, Nova, and Noesi are proven commodities?

    Banuelos, Bettances, and Noesi are all unproven.

    Nova’s had a very good rookie year, as have hundreds of other pitchers who subsequently tanked completely.

    And then there’s our savior Hughes who’s had exactly one good year as a starter and that came with some of the best run support in baseball: I believe he was the beneficiary of something like 7 runs a game, on average, that year. So, Hughes is unproven, too.

    Given the above, it’s inexplicable that the Yankees weren’t aggressive in going after either Wilson or Darvish. Even if you think Wilson is a #3, he’s currently better and more proven than all of the above options (hopefully the Bs and Ns will alter that view in the future).

    So, Wilson at about $85 million was too much for a definite #3 and a possible #2. And Darvish at a total of approximately $125M wasn’t worth it for a probable #2 and possible #1. Yet, we’re apparently willing to trade 2-4 of our best prospects for #3 starters like:

    * Garza, who waited until he was in a weak hitting division to have his “break out” year. Hmmm, no, nothing suspicious or worrisome there . . .

    * Danks, a free agent to be who’s a nice #2/3 in the AL Central, but definitely not a #2 and maybe not even a #3 in the AL East. Moreover, given how baseball inflation goes, it’ll probably cost Wilson dollars to resign Danks after this season, which means we would have in effect paid twice over for Danks (i.e., top prospects + top dollars), in lieu of signing Wilson simply for dollars. Brilliant move, guys!

    * Gio Gonzalez, who pitches the majority of his game in a pitcher’s version of heaven on earth: Oakland (not to mention Seattle and Anaheim at night). Wanna see a pitcher’s ERA inflate 150% or more?

    Step 1: Move him from Oakland to the AL East.

    Step 2: Sit back and cry.

    Think I’m being ridiculous? How about this: Gio’s ERA in Oakland last year: 2.70. Gio’s ERA everywhere else: 3.62! Ooooh, yea, let’s trade the farm for that defecation.

    We screwed up by not signing Wilson or Darvish. I hope we don’t compound that mistake by trading Montero and one of the Killer Bs for, in effect, a #3 starter. I think that would be a GIGANTIC mistake.

  41. WayneD says:

    Some of you fans have suggested signing Cole Hamels in 2013 if he’s available. That’s nuts if the dollar figures being bantered about here are even close, which, unfortunately, they probably are.

    I live just outside of Phillie (unfortunately) and I’ve probably seen him pitch more than most (if not all) of you. Hamels is definitely NOT WORTH $20M or more a year! He’s not even worth $19M, and may not even be worth $18M, given that his career has been spent in the NL.

    Hamels is about equal to Wilson. But, unlike Wilson, he’s pitched his entire career in a weak hitting league, never had to pitch against the best all-around team in his league (the Phillies), and he was the #3 pitcher on his team.

    Hamels was the #1 pitcher for Phillie for a short time, and Phillie was so impressed with him as a #1 that they went out and got Doc.

    Then, they were so impressed with him as a #2, they went out and got Lee.

    Are you guys picking up on a pattern here?

    Hamels is a real nice pitcher. A truly great #3, and a decent — but not great — #2.

    Bottom line: Wilson was a far cheaper and better gamble than Hamels.

    The Yankees screwed up by not signing either Wilson or Darvish. And that’s not a panic move assertion, we desperately need a better #2 starter, and we need to protect our top prospects from being trade bait (i.e., Montero and the two Killer Bs); and signing Wilson or Darvish would have accomplished that for the Yankees.

    Plus, we’ve now allowed Darvish to probably go to the team we’ve failed to beat two years in a row in the playoffs. That move may haunt us for many years to come.

    Some fans have rightly noted that the Yankees have information we aren’t privy to about Darvish. But I, for one, trust Nolan Ryan’s ability to judge pitching talent more than Cashman and Company.

    I doubt very much that a brilliant pitcher like Ryan could possibly be 100% wrong about Darvish. If Ryan thinks he’s worth about $125M, he’s probably worth at least that much.

Leave a Reply

You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

If this is your first time commenting on River Ave. Blues, please review the RAB Commenter Guidelines. Login for commenting features. Register for RAB.