Jan
16

Fan Confidence Poll: January 16th, 2012

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2011 Record: 97-65 (855 RS, 657 RA, 102-60 pythag. record), won AL East, lost to Tigers in ALDS

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Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
Categories : Polls
  • Shamus

    High confidence, broken heart…

    • I am not the droids you’re looking for…

      +1

    • Andy in Sunny Daytona

      Totally agree. It sucks when you get reminded that baseball is a business.

    • Mister Delaware

      This is not at all the type of short-sighted, kneejerk post I was expecting to lead off today. Nicely timed.

  • Bavarian Yankee

    first time ever I have to vote 9. Pineda and Kuroda should make the rotation a lot better and the offense won’t be much worse without Montero.

  • Moose says “You stay there!”

    7 – Hard to be too confident when the Yankees had two or three recent shots at developing their own top flight pitcher (based on draft slot and prospect rankings) and failed miserably. Now they trust someone else’s development work? This reeks of Jeff Weaver for Ted Lilly with Noesi likely to be as valuable as Pineda next year.

    Now Pineda gets a rotation slot while Hughes and Joba mop up in the pen?

    • Moose says “You stay there!”

      Actually, based on the peripherals, the first Vazquez trade is a better comp, but he was more established then than Pineda is now.

    • Dave203

      “Noesi likely to be as valuable as Pineda next year”

      LAUGHABLE — They aren’t remotely on the same level. They are completely different style pitchers and Pineda has A LOT better stuff. Hate the trade if you want, but be reasonable in your explanation at least.

      • Moose says “You stay there!”

        Except Pineda is going to give up his dingers in the Yankee Bandbox and Noesi will get saved by Safeco. Even Mike pointed this potential out. Even if Noesi is a 3 win pitcher, and Pineda is a 4-win pitcher, you wanna bet against Montero being worth more than 1 win?

        The Yankees lost this trade because they didn’t get back a #1. They got back a lottery ticket that isn’t even worth where Joba or Hughes were three years ago.

        • Dave203

          Apparently you missed the post in an earlier thread which provided a link to be able to map all of the batted balls against a pitcher and overlay it onto another ball park. All of the HRs he gave up in Safeco, were out of Yankee Stadium. More importantly, ALL of the fly balls he threw in Safeco were FLY BALLS, NOT HOME RUNS, in Yankee Stadium. While that is common thought, it was proven wrong when actually examine the data.

          When you have a 95+ fastball, balls do leave the park. However, he also struck out 170+ which puts him 2nd behind CC on the Yanks.

        • Mister Delaware

          I don’t think you understand what “lottery ticket” means in baseball terms.

          (Hint: It very much doesn’t mean a guy who has already succeeded at the major league level.)

          (Sidenote: Unless you meant “they got back a #2 and a lottery ticket”, at which point you would understand the term but misunderstand how much value that carries.)

        • Genghis

          What if Noesi is a 6 WAR pitcher in Safeco? What if he’s a 9 WAR pitcher there? As long as you are assuming that a back-of-the-rotation-ceiling talent will pitch like a #3 in his first year, why not just make some other arbitrary assumptions that support the desired conclusion even better? Let’s just assume that he’s Cy-freakin’-Young.

          In contrast, Pineda was projected as a #1-2 even in the minors. He pitched like a #3 in his first year; not even remotely exceeding expectations.

    • gc

      Ivan Nova doesn’t count? Or Chien Ming Wang? Look, I get it. They made serious mistakes with Joba, and you can probably say the same about Hughes (though him getting hurt so often contributed to some of that, IMO). But you also fail to recognize what they’re doing with the guys in AAA right now. They’re TRYING to develop their own top flight pitchers. They haven’t panicked and called them up to bail out their bullpen. They haven’t rushed them up to a situation they weren’t ready for by throwing them into the starting rotation all at once. They’ve let them develop at a reasonable pace, and it looks as if they are setting them up to get involved at the big league level at exactly the right time. In this case, it looks like 2013 will be that time.

      So in the meantime, they filled a big-time need with Pineda that works for the short-term win-now mode, AND the long-term cost control mode …AND they pick up a quality starter on a one year stop-gap deal in Kuroda that allows those younger arms to mature even more down on the farm. It seems pretty obvious to me that whatever mistakes they made with previous pitching prospects they are trying diligently to avoid with these guys this time around. Whether it works or not remains to be seen, but the discipline they’re adhering to with these young pitchers in (at the very least) TRYING to do this the right way seems to be lost on a lot of people. This is why I love the Pineda deal so much. Yeah, some other team developed that talent, but what they got in return is exactly what Cashman has been looking for…young, cost-controlled, top quality pitching talent. That he’s had a year under his belt at the big league level already with decent (if not outstanding at times) results is a bonus. To me, it’s a sign of what he’s hoping Banuelos and Betances turn out to be. Betances is 23 years old. Banuelos is still only 20. If they even come close to what Pineda looks to be, the Yankees will be just fine for many years to come in the pitching department.

      I’m at a solid 9.

      • BigDavey88

        +1

      • Kevin Winters

        Betances is 23 years old. Banuelos is still only 20. If they even come close to what Pineda looks to be, the Yankees will be just fine for many years to come in the pitching department.

        ——————–

        And if they don’t pan out

        • gc

          Then they don’t pan out. Now throw Campos into the mix. Maybe one of those three DOES pan out. Or who knows, maybe the all pan out. I never said there were any guarantees. The more quality you have at that level, the higher your chances that SOMEONE will pan out. At the very least, they’re working hard to increase their odds. Hard to fault them for that.

          • Kevin Winters

            The more quality you have at that level, the higher your chances that SOMEONE will pan out. At the very least, they’re working hard to increase their odds. Hard to fault them for that.

            ——————-

            True but with the same ppl in charge of guiding the careers of these pitchers it’s hard to get excited about these guys.

            • gc

              It would be if it was abundantly clear they were making the same mistakes all over again…like panicking in the middle of the season and calling them up to shore up the bullpen. Or putting them in a situation they clearly weren’t ready for by throwing them all in the starting rotation to start the year. To me, it looks as if they have learned some very valuable lessons from all of that and are looking to avoid them this time around. The discipline they are exercising with these young pitchers is very different (so far) than anything we saw with Joba, Hughes and IPK.

              • Kevin Winters

                Valid points but until those guys actual come up and contribute I’ll still be cautious about the Yankees handling young pitchers.

            • CP

              Except it’s not the same guys.

              Maybe it’s the same development people as were responsible for Hughes, Joba and IPK (2 of 3 who have become effective major league pitchers), but it’s not the same guys that were responsible during the late 90′s and early 2000′s.

    • Mike HC

      That reminds me of when people said Smoltz and Penny would out pitch CC and AJ, and how genius the Red Sox were. My money is on Pineda.

    • MattG

      Pineda is an extreme strike thrower with a plus plus fastball. Noesi is…not.

      Pineda reminds me of Curt Schilling. Of course, it took Schilling about a decade to figure it out, though.

      • gc

        Well, at 26 years old, he was pretty dominating in the playoffs for the 1993 Phillies. He certainly showed flashes of brilliance before going to Boston.

        • Mister Delaware

          Ugh, I can’t believe he was only 26 then. If he didn’t play professional baseball, he would have still been a virgin at that point.

  • Dropped Third

    9… Our team is stacked at every aspect of the game right now… Offense, defense, bullpen, and starting pitching are all pretty much top 10 easily.

  • CountryClub

    I was listening to MLB radio on my ride in this morning and during their hourly update they had a snippet from an interview that was done with Pineda sometime on Sunday. In it he said that he was just sitting tight and exploring his options. And that he’d do what was best for him and his family. First, that doesnt sound like someone who’s jumping for joy about coming to NY. Second, someone should tell him that his only options are to pitch for the Yankees or retire.

    • Moose says “You stay there!”

      Then there’s something like this. The kid lived with his bullpen coach last year. Now he’s going to be ready for the Bronx?

      I have a bad feeling about this…

      • CountryClub

        The Yanks seem to do a good job of making young talent feel like part of the team. I’m sure guys like Nova, CC, Garcia and even Arod will take care of him.

    • Dave203

      The kid is Dominican. He will fit in just fine in the NY area with his family. Other than maybe Miami, NY is the next largest hub of Dominicans. He will certainly feel more at home and have better access back to the DR from NY than Seattle.

      I’m sure in the portion of the interview you heard, things can be a bit out of context. I am sure he realizes he is pitching for the Yankees next year and I’m sure he’s excited about it. You don’t grow up in the Dominican Republic hoping to play for the Seattle Mariners. The entire island either wants to play for the Yankees or the Red Sox — but they’ll play for any team if it is a way to the big leagues.

    • MattG

      So you heard the answer. What was the question? “So, Michael, are you thinking of buying a house in the suburbs, or renting an apartment in Manhattan?”

      • CountryClub

        I didnt hear the question but the guy doing the update led into it like this “So how does Pineda feel about the big trade?”.

        You are absolutely right though, they could easily be trying to create a story where there isnt one.

    • Fin

      Any chance the snipet was to get you to stay tuned to hear the full story?

      • CP

        They never do that. Those clips are always designed to present all relevant information, with the appropriate context.

      • CountryClub

        No; it’s like their version of the WFAN’s 20/20 update.

  • David, Jr.

    An easy 9 for me, verging on a 10.

    The recent moves have made the Yankees into a better team than they were last year, because the starting pitching is clearly better. The prospect huggers would go whacko over losing Banuelos or Betances, but Pineda is MLB proven and has a ceiling far in excess of both of them. The logic of this escapes me.

    Their weakness is what? DH against right handed pitching? Absolutely laughable.

    This could be one of the best Yankee teams in a long time. If ARod and Tex bounce back, you could be looking at something like 105 wins.

    • Dropped Third

      105 wont happen because players will get hurt or underperform (boston last year) but the club has more talent and fewer weaknesses then any club in baseball right now so i agree with you that this should be a fun season to watch.

      • David, Jr.

        It might not, but it could. They have that kind of potential. For example, and hard to say after last year, but to me the bullpen shapes up as being even better.

    • Moose says “You stay there!”

      105 wins. Heh. And if A-Rod and Teixeira don’t? You know, since they’re going on two straight years of the same? Or how about Jeter and Martin? That’s half the lineup that will likely be very underwhelming. So that puts a ton of emphasis on Granderson, who’s unlikely to repeat his 2011, and Cano, who is as likely to hit .850 OPS as to hit .900 OPS given his OBP. Other than those two, neither Swisher nor Gardner have any upside left. Montero was the one guy who could bring 200 runs (scored and driven) produced all by himself.

      That’s just the lineup. The rotation, even now, falls behind the Rays, Rangers, and likely the Angels. If the Rangers sign Fielder, they’re still the team to beat.

      • Dave203

        Yeah, if half the lineup goes down, we’re screwed. However, that pertains to any team in the league. Regardless, the chances of that are essentially zero.

        Regarding the rotations, sure the Angels and Rays have better rotations, but we still have better hitting than the Angels and much better hitting than the Rays. That is the Rays root problem that they continue to ignore. They should be the ones going after Fielder, but they never seem to do it. The Rangers rotation is not better than the Yanks. Even if they sign Darvish, he is their #2. CC/Pineda/Kuroda/Nova/Burnett is still better than Lewis/Darvish/Holland/Harrison/Feliz. Furthermore, our hitting will still be better since they aren’t signing Fielder if they sign Darvish.

      • OldYanksFan

        Using 300 PA as the cutoff, OPS in MLB:
        Our crappy SS was 10th of 36.
        Our crappy 3B was 7th of 28.
        Our crappy RF was 10th of 28.
        Our crappy 1B was 11th of 32.
        Our crappy C was 15th of 34 (250PA min).

        While Jeter and ARod are not what they were, they are still well better then average. Jeter was better in 2011 then 2010, so he may post similar numbers.

        ARod was hurt most of the year. I suspect he will be better this year then last.

        I suspect our offense in 2012 (baring radical injury) will be similar to 2011 (3rd best OPS in MLB behind Boston and Texas).

    • Dave203

      105 might be a stretch, but they could get close to 98-100 wins in your scenario where everyone is healthy. Health is the key — if AROD goes down again or something crazy happens to any of our studs, it will make it interesting.

      That is exactly why we need to finish out the bench ASAP with Chavez and I prefer Pena. That gives us position backups, that can be servicable for an extended time, at every position. I’d be a fan of signing Ayala again too, but not 100% needed. After that, just focus of strength and conditioning and get everyone read to win another WS!

      • Fin

        105 aint happening. The Rays are a 90+ plus win team. The sox are at least a 90+ win team. Dispite the awful collapse in September, they were the best team in baseball for 4 months. They killed the Yankees head to head. THat lineup is fearsome. Lets not get out of hand like the sox fans did last year with 110 win predictions. When you look at realistically, Pineda and Kuroda will be doing well to match the first half numbers that Colon and Garcia put up. I expect a similar season to last year, with a better pitching situation going into the playoffs.

        • Fin

          To expand further, I give the Sox a chance to be right there with the Yankees for the division. I think they will get Oswalt and with some luck like the Yankees got last year, they are there. I think Ace will be a good starter, much better than what they had at the bottom of the staff last year. Bard however, essh, wtf are they thinking, hes not even good enough to be a closer. A hard straight fastball 100 pitches a game aint gettin him far.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      I like your enthusiasm, but 105 wins is crazy talk.

      • Tom Swift

        But 100 is more than plausible, no? I am excited about the 2012 season.

        • CP

          I think 100 wins is a reasonable goal. Considering that the Yankees have won 105 games or more only once in the last 50 years would certainly make that seem unlikely.

      • David, Jr.

        I said “could”, not “will”.

        I believe that they are clearly better than last year’s team. Of course they need good health, that isnt anything more than stating the obvious, but they have huge potential.

    • CANO FAN #1

      1+

    • Mike HC

      I’m excited for this year as well. Things have to fall right, of course, but there is definitely potential to have an explosive year.

    • Monterowasdinero

      Fixed with Carlos Pena who would hit 25 HR’s for us as DH.

  • David, Jr.

    And better equipped to succeed in the playoff short series crap shoot

    • Mike HC

      One game playoffs now as well. Putting even more emphasis on the old cliche “you are only as good as your next starting pitcher.” (I might have made that up). Or maybe the saying goes “momentum is as good as your next days starting pitcher.” Either way, you get the point. Having a 2-3 guys you trust to pitch one game with your season on the line is more important now than ever.

  • Feeing confident

    I wouldn’t worry too much about what was said in an interview before the trade has officially been announced. I am confident that he will say the “right things” after the trade is official. He has to be thrilled right now!

  • Lovin’ my yanks

    A week ago fans were screaming for the Yanks to do something and this week some are complaining that they actually did do something! I never thought it was fair to make a 22 year old an everyday DH. Love this move. Feeling confident about this team. Freddy and Bartolo were a great surprise last year, but until this trade,I had little confidence in this pitching staff for the upcoming year.

  • Mike HC

    I’m at an 8, moving closer to 9. The less emotional I get about losing Montero, the more I like the move. The amount of young pitching talent we have now is great. And cheap too. Great young pitching is what makes for a confident future. We spend the most, are smartly managed and now have elite young pitching. The league is in big trouble.

  • Rich in NJ

    It’s not about confidence for me because the payroll ensures some success. It’s about vision and risk-reward decision making, and Cashman and Girardi have chosen a path that is too pitching-centric and involves taking on unnecessary risks.

    • Dave203

      Right, because being 2nd in the league in RS last year (without Montero) shows no devotion to hitting. The fact is, we needed a #2 pitcher and we got Pineda and Kuroda to fight over the 2/3 spots. If we hadn’t gone after any pitching, you would have been happy that we weren’t “pitching-centric”? Doubtful…

      • Rich in NJ

        Wait, I really have to remind you that Jeter will be 38, that A-Rod will be 37, that Tex has been in decline, that Granderson may have had an outlier season, and that they have no near ML ready impact offensive prospects?

        Pineda is not a #2 right now. He is a still-developing pitcher, who is coming off a bad second half, that must develop a third pitch. Cashman admitted that.

        I think they had enough pitching, so your ability to read my mind is…doubtful.

        • Fin

          Wait do I really have to remind you that Montero didnt dominate in AAA, for 2 years? I mean clearly you are guy who feels Montero is the next Cabrera. I dont think he is. When Miguel was 20 he was raking in the majors (27th in mvp voting). At 21 Miguel was among the top 10 hitters in the game. When I look at Montero’s numbers, it seems to me alot of his greatness was tied into how well he could hit as a catcher not how well he can hit as a DH. I’m not saying he cant be a great hitter, but I am saying he is no sure thing. Pineda is more of a sure thing, hes a MLB baseball player, not a prospect.

          • Kevin Winters

            Pineda is more of a sure thing, hes a MLB baseball player, not a prospect.

            ———————-

            So then he should pitch like a sure thing next yr right no growing pains.

            • gc

              Maybe he will. Maybe he won’t. At least he has a track record in the major leagues we can draw upon to at least make more reasonable projections. If you’re looking for guarantees, pick another hobby. Baseball isn’t for you.

              • Kevin Winters

                Not looking for guarantees just looking for those in charge not to fuck up on a regular basis.

                • gc

                  They all can’t be as smart as you, I know.

                  • Kevin Winters

                    No they’re smarter than all of us they have all the info and still suck at developing pitching.

            • Fin

              Thats a loaded question. I didnt say he wouldnt have growing pains. I specifically said hes more of sure thing than Montero, becasue hes a MLB player. However, hes a very young player and growing pains could be part of his journery. Verlander was suppose to be an ace from the day he arrived in the majors, it took him a few year, but on the way he was still a damn fine pitcher. I expect him to be a damn fine pitcher, yes. With growing pains.

              • Kevin Winters

                Hopefully he does become a fine pitcher just don’t want to see the Yanks mess up again.

          • Rich in NJ

            Cashman said he was Piazza/Cabrera…

            • Fin

              He was trying to trade him! What did you expect him to say..he cant catch and is therefore, less of a player than we expect…now can we have your best player?

            • JohnnyC

              Jack Z didn’t think he was even Justin Smoak 2 years ago.

        • MattG

          He’s also an extreme strike thrower that sits at (sits at!) 95, with a plus slider. Let’s not focus on what he doesn’t do–what he has already shown in the major leagues is a fantasy for 97% of major-leaguers.

          • Rich in NJ

            Do you think he can be a top of the rotation starter with only two pitches?

            • CP

              Yes.

            • MattG

              Of course. As he is already a major league strike-thrower at 22 years old, it is not unreasonable to think he could improve his control more. If he were to do that, he could be an ace without ever developing a third pitch.

              The thing that is missing here is that what he does have: control of a plus plus fastball. That alone is enough to give him a ceiling of a #1. The knockout slider: which he controls just as well, brings him much closer to that ceiling. His age: he’s already had success at 22 years old.

              Noesis are completely replaceable. Monteros, if they are DHs, are somewhat approximated. The combination Pineda brings doesn’t come around often.

            • Fin

              Dude you’re nuts, hes 22 with pinpoint control. 2 pitches isnt so much of an issue when you can throw them where u want with his velocity. He has plenty of time to lean command of another. He doesnt hit 95 on the gun, he averages 95 on the gun, with walking almost no one. Thats an insane talent.

    • Mike HC

      You can never have too much pitching and as we saw during the 00′s, an all star lineup ensures nothing but an early playoff exit.

      • Rich in NJ

        The Yankees of the ’90s beat the pitching-centric Braves because they had balance. For the reasons I mentioned in my previous post that balance is at risk. That’s why I think Montero’s presence was indispensable unless a young impact bat was gotten in return.

        • Mike HC

          The need for starting pitching, and long term starting pitching, outweighed the need for a young DH/very poor defender. Before the trade, the long term starting rotation was put off for too long. 4/5′s of our rotation was one year leftovers and inexperienced youngsters (and AJ). That is not a recipe for long term success.

          The offense does take a step back losing Montero, you are right about that. But the payoff seems mighty worth it.

          • Rich in NJ

            Banuelos, Betances, etc. don’t offer upside pitching? Cashman has trumpeted that as one of his primary achievements.

            Posada has been called a poor defender (so has Jeter at times) yet they both have given the Yankees a huge positional advantage over other teams because of their offense.

            So we disagree on how important Montero was given the current makeup of the ML and mL rosters

            • Mike HC

              I would say that Banuelos and Betances (who many believe is most likely going to end up a reliever) alone were not enough considering the long term uncertainty of our starting rotation. I think a pitcher like Pineda at this point in his career is a gem. Then add in the other high ceiling minor leaguer, and you go from thin to stacked with just one move.

              I do see your point though. And I guess time will tell to see how this all shakes out.

              • Rich in NJ

                Pineda’s career path is still too uncertain to be considered a gem because he is still developing and the Yankees have sucked at developing pitchers. If they hire away TB’s development people I would feel better.

                • Mike HC

                  That is fair criticism. Safe to way, if they fuck this up, heads will roll.

                • gc

                  But Montero is a finished product and now that he’s under the sage guidance of the offensive juggernaut that is the Seattle Mariners, he’ll easily be the next Albert Pujols???

                  • Rich in NJ

                    Hitters with his swing, patience, and power tend to have a much flatter development curve than a still developing starter.

                    • MattG

                      I don’t disagree with this. If you rank them by least amount of risk, you get:

                      1. Noesi
                      2. Montero
                      3. Pineda

                      If you rank them by potential vs. what else you might scrounge up, you get:

                      1. Pineda
                      2. Montero
                      103. Noesi

                    • Mike HC

                      I don’t see how Noesi is less risking than Pineda. Pineda out pitched Noesi by leaps and bounds last year. Pineda is far less risky than Noesi.

                      Unless you mean Noesi’s odds of becoming an average starter vs Pineda’s odds of becoming consistently one of the best pitchers in baseball. That might change things.

                    • MattG

                      Yes, I meant the risk of them attaining what we expect of them.

                    • Mike HC

                      In that case, I would say Pineda is more likely to become one of the best pitchers in baseball than it is for Montero to become the next David Ortiz, Edgar Martinez or Piazza. Just personally based on their stats from last year. Both players have so much potential that I can’t fault you for thinking the other way though.

                      Agreed that Noesi probably is the best bet to put together 4 or so average years.

                    • MattG

                      Well, Montero is a hitter, Pineda a pitcher. Right there, Pineda is way more risky.

                      In general, I agree with Rich in NJ: a hitter’s development is more stable. There is no reason to believe either player would be derailed by injury, yet, there is every reason to believe a young pitcher can be derailed by injury.

                    • Mike HC

                      Agreed that pitchers have greater risk of injury, but I think Pineda’s far superior MLB numbers compared to Montero’s in the minor leagues last year have to overcome that inherent risk. But again, it is very close, and I no doubt see the enormous potential in Montero.

                • Fin

                  Can you explain to me how Montero’s career path is more certain? What, other than our fan love has Montero shown that makes you think: 1. That hes more than a DH. 2. Is a guaranteed elite hitter? His minor league numbers really are not that impressive. I never really payed attention to it before, becasue like everyone else i was in love with him. However, if you look at his numbers, it seems that his value was that he could hit like he can as a catcher. When you take the catcher portion away from the equation, im not sure hes that special.

                  • Fin

                    Well clealy there is no risk in Noessi becasue there is nothing invested him when compared to the other 2. Its pretty much a moot point. If Noessi doesnt succeed in MLB he will be forgotten, a side note to the Montero/Pineda trade. He only has upside. THe real no risk is campos. He has upside ace potential, his numbers are, frankly staggering. Hes less risk than Noessi becasue no one is counting on him winning a starting job like the Ms are counting on NOessi winning one.

                    • Mike HC

                      I think me, you and MattG are using slightly different definitions of the word “risk” in this little conversation.

                      Agreed that Montero and Pineda are the centerpieces and thus carry the most responsibility and risk associated with the deal. On the other hand, both Montero and Pineda are both pretty low risk that they will both at least be legit major leaguers, whereas Campos holds the greatest risk that he won’t even be a player.

                  • MattG

                    Fin, Montero’s numbers are very, very impressive for his age and the leagues in which he performed. His AA Trenton performance in particular is staggering. The Eastern league in general, and Mercer County Riverfront Stadium in particular, are tough places to hit. Montero tore it up at a very young age.

                    • Fin

                      Iv’e been to River front (I’m from Somerville). I wouldnt agree he “tore it up” for an elite hitting prospect. I would say he did well. I never said he wasnt a fine prospect. I was countering the points of elite hitter. He very well could be a great hitter, but the comparisons to Cabrera who was much further along at the same age and multiple MVPS are pretty insane. I also stand by, that alot of his hitting prowress was tied up into what he was doing as a catcher. My over all point being that he has his risks and they are at least as great as Pineda’s.

            • Genghis

              Lumping everyone who has been labeled a “poor defender” (sic) into the same bucket is over-simplistic. Posada is a converted SS. Jeter is at minimum a competent SS. Both are, and have always been, excellent athletes. Criticism of Posada has been about the leveled to which he has refined the catcher’s craft, not on his raw tools. In Jeter’s case, it’s been on how his lateral range stacks up against other ML shortstops.

              In the Montero case, the basic knock is that he is just plain unathletic. He doesn’t move well. He’s got a good tool in his arm, but that’s it. He’s got a similar lack of craft mastery as Posada had but lacks the athleticism to compensate.

              • Fin

                Wasnt Posada a converted 2nd basemen, your point is excellent either way.

        • Fin

          The Yankees also had very good pitching, close to the Braves level. THey just had a much much much much better lineup. You are also talking about a one of the great dynastys in sports history. I say bring the STICK.

    • gc

      Yes, it IS about vision and risk-reward decision making. Which is exactly why I like this trade. Too pitching-centric? Let’s not exaggerate here. We’re not going to be the Seattle Mariners offense next year. They will score plenty of runs. But the biggest thing that bothers me about what you’re saying is that Cashman took an unnecessary risk. Yeah, it was a risk, but not unnecessary. The Mariners took a risk as well in taking on a hitter with no position who may or may not turn out to be what everyone projects him to be. Both teams are taking risks here, but the Ms needed a young potentially potent cost-controlled bat and we needed a young potentially potent cost-controlled arm. (In this case, we got TWO.) It’s a trade that other executives marveled at because they didn’t think an arm like Pineda could be gotten. Least of all by the Yankees. Make no mistake about it, a lot of other AL teams just about shit their pants the other night when this all went down. It sucks to lose a guy like Montero, but there is so much to like about the future of the Yankees right now.

      • Rich in NJ

        I think you are assuming that Jeter and A-Rod, for example, won’t continue to decline and/or miss more games due to injury and that isn’t knowable. What is knowable is that players in their late 30s tend to be increasingly susceptible to decline and injury. Taken together with the other offensive vulnerabilities I mentioned, there is no way to reasonably asumme that offense won’t be a problem, if not in 2012, then in 2013.

        As far as the comparative risk, it is well-known that hitters are a safer bet to develop than pitchers and are far less fragile. Again, the Yankees have admitted that.

        They already were stocked with high end pitching prospects, so I don’t understand why there wan’t more to like before the trade.

        • gc

          No, I’m assuming that some players will not hit as well as last year, some will hit just as well, and some will exceed last year’s production. Just like most every year. What I’m not assuming is the worst case scenario for every player as you seem to be doing. But do I think that it’s reasonable to EXPECT that the offense will be a problem?? Define problem. Below league average in runs scored?

          As for what the lineup looks like in 2013, don’t get ahead of yourself. The money they’re saving on this rotation will most likely allow them to do whatever work needs to be done to shore up any shortcomings in the lineup for 2013. Or the bullpen. That’s why the risk is one you have to take because it has impact beyond just the starting rotation.

        • Evan3457

          I would disagree with the characterization of Pineda as “a high-end pitching prospect”. While he’s not finished his devlopment, and has (we hope) 5-7 years before he reaches his peak, right now, he’s proven he can pitch quality baseball on the big league level (and 2.8 bWAR, 3.4 fWAR can fairly be said to be “quality”). Betances and Banuelos have not yet proven they can pitch quality baseball at the AAA level.

          I don’t think it’s fair to put Banuelos or Betances at the level of Pineda. Yet.

  • Whizzo the Wize

    Whizzo is full of confidence in this team.

    Baseball, like life comes with no guarantees. But Whizzo likes gamblers who play the smart odds for high payouts.

    Whizzo sees 2 DHs who had WARs higher than Pineda had last year (3.4).

    In the last 11 years (2001-2011 seasons), 25 DH seasons have had WARs higher than Pineda had last year. Over 420 pitcher seasons have resulted in WARs above Pineda’s.

    Whizzo sees two ways to look at this: if Montero in fact can produce one of those rare 3.4+ WAR DH seasons, he’s difficult to replace, and that’s bad.

    However, Pineda has a much higher likelihood of providing the team with more wins above a replacement level player due to the position he plays. And that’s good.

    Whizzo is a glass-half-full kind of guy.

    • Mike HC

      Plus, we traded a mop up guy that had 4.47 era, 1.51 whip last season, that had no real future starting with the Yanks anyway, for a top young pitching talent.

      • Whizzo the Wize

        Campos is very intriguing, but that Noesi May 18th game against Baltimore really sticks out for Whizzo. Noesi may end up bing back of the rotation fodder, but Whizzo likes the man’s mound presence, and thinks he may just turn out to be a better player than that.

        Very replaceable though with what the Yankees have in AAA, though. And Campos’ potential is worth the risk.

      • Fin

        I disagree with that. You’re taking his numbers without puting them into context. He was tucked away in the bullpen to rot, barely pitching, and then left out to dry against the Rays at the end of the season, while they were resting everyone for the playoffs. He certainly had a chance to be in the rotation for the Yankees. HE may have been a mop up guy last year due to circumstances but I dont think many belive that is his future.

        • Mike HC

          Fair enough. I guess personally I am lower on Noesi than most people here. I saw him nothing more as back of the rotation, easily replaceable production. The fact we were able to get value for him in a trade like we did is great. He is more valuable to the Mariners than he is to the Yanks in my opinion.

          • Fin

            Thats fair Mike. I happend to think Noessi is going to be a solid major league pitcher, possibly a solid number 3 in his prime 3 or 4 yrs. The fact we got back Campos for him seems insane to me. Seems hes already the ~5th best prospect in the Yankees system, and its a good system. I also agree the mariners needed him more than the Yankees, they lost a starter and need to replace him and I’m pretty sure Noessi will be that guy. Hell the winter reports have him hitting 98, lets hope he doesnt become better than pineda.

            • Mike HC

              98?!?! — That was like seeing Aceves last year throwing 95 mph all of a sudden. You really can’t predict who is going to get that 5 mph spike on his heater magically.

              Maybe Pineda comes into Yankee camp sitting at 102, ha.

              • Fin

                MOre like 105, from what ive read Pineda hits 100 on occasion.

  • theyankeewarrior

    Mike, as far as the budget goes, what do we figure in for the 40-man guys who won’t be on the big-league 25-man like Betances/Phelps/Almonte/Romine etc.?

    I hope they have enough for Pena. He could be a real beast from the left side and provide us with some tex-suckitude insurance.

    • Fin

      The Espn report I read, had them sitting 212m.

  • Paul VuvuZuvella

    Nine Nine Nine…to coin a phrase.

  • PinedaColada

    I’m at a 9 for the first time in a long time. Yea we lost what will most likely be a cost controlled offensive beast but we gained not one but two extremely high ceiling power pitchers. Obviously Campos is farther away from being able to contribute but Pineda can slot right into our rotation as a 15-18 game winner. I read a scouting report on Campos that says he has 3 plus pitches and at 19 can control the FB on both sides of the plate, loves throwing the heat in on hitters hands and has a smooth as silk delivery. The scout goes on to project that he could gain a few ticks on his Fastball and if he develops his third pitch to where he can throw it for strikes he is an ace in waiting. That to me is very exciting.

  • Graig not Craig

    Just the fact of not having to rely on AJ raises my confidence level.

  • http://www.twitter.com/tomzig Tom Zig

    I voted 9. The missing piece is Carlos Pena.

    • Mister Delaware

      “What? C’mon. No way.” – The year 2006

      • http://www.twitter.com/tomzig Tom Zig

        Not sure what you mean.

        2011 Carlos Pena vs RHP: .383 wOBA

        Granted, Pena is absolutely neutralized by LHPs, but that’s what you have Andruw Jones for. It’s impossible for Pena to never face LHPs, but if you can try to limit it, I think he’d be great for the other half of the DH platoon.

        • Mike HC

          I’m with Pena as well. I’m sure he is hoping to get paid more than the new thrifty Yanks are initialing offering though.

          • Fin

            Have to give Pena time. He clearly doesnt want to take the step down in his career, where he becomes a platoon player. I’m sure he would go play for the Mets as an everyday player before becoming a platoon player for the Yanks. If he doesnt have that every day job in a few weeks, the yankees can get him.

            • Mike HC

              Sounds about right to me.

        • Mister Delaware

          Oh, I’m absolutely on board. Just saying its weird to think that 6 years ago we just cut him because he couldn’t hit and now we really want him as our DH.

  • Kosmo

    I´m still on the fence over the Pineda-Montero trade. Pineda has to win 15 or so games with a 3.50 ERA or better in 2012 with close to 200 IP to make me a believer. Which also means he has to finish the season on a positive note. One would hope he can match those numbers over a period of years. If Noesi approaches Pineda´s numbers in 2011, specifically IP and ERA , and Pineda falters, I´ll be scratching my head. Rumor has it Seattle expects Montero to catch on a semi-regular basis in 2012 to see if he can handle it. If Montero emerges as a dominate offensive force it would appear to this observer Seattle got the better of the deal. Of course Campos could be a real wild card but it´s far to early to ascess what his future holds.

    • Kosmo

      also NY could have just as well signed Kuroda and called it a day.

    • Mister Delaware

      What if he pitches 230 innings with a 2.27 ERA but only 14 wins?

      • Sarah

        Not good enough. He could go all Tim Lincecum 13-14 with a 2.74 ERA and Kosmo will feel he’s not good enough.

        • Kosmo

          I didn´t say that did now did I ?? The drift of my comment is he has to show something approaching number 2 status. 15 wins at least gives some indication that he´s pitched reasonably well and with a mid 3 ERA would help qualify it.
          Do you have a point ?

          • Mister Delaware

            That wins shouldn’t be included in your baseline. 8 wins over 200 IP with a 2.27 ERA is still an indication he pitched awesome. 19 wins with a 6.33 ERA is still an indication he pitched terribly.

    • Graig not Craig

      Good move. Wait until you can apply 20/20 hindsight to evaluate a trade. Why didn’t the Yankees front office think of that?

  • Chad Gaudin the Friendly Ghost

    The more I reflect on the trade, the less it bothers me. I loved Montero like everyone else, and I was looking forward to the days where he was mashing opposite field home runs into the short porch. However, the Yankees had a real need, and filled it with what in reality was just a luxury.

    On top of the fact that we needed a pitcher now far more than a bat (even a great young one), once the league is realigned and the Yankees are playing far more interleague games that DH only guy is less valuable. I don’t really think, despite the FO insistence otherwise, that Montero really could catch.

    So the bat was nice, but having a strong rotation now and into the future is nicer. For the foreseeable future the Yankees have terrific young, strong arms, and not counting what they could pick up next year.

    I feel much, much better about our chances after this weekend.

  • BigDavey88

    I’m at a nine. After the initial punch to the gut from losing the Son of Man, I’m liking the trade more and more. To get five years of cost controlled anything is a minor miracle and we got that plus another high-ceiling prospect. This trade has an excellent chance to be one of those that works out for both sides and i sure hope that’s the case; I want Montero to succeed.

    Finally, this whole Tex is in decline thing is making me very weary. Even in his two down seasons, he was AT LEAST a top 10 first baseman (I don’t know off the top of my head anymore). People need to stop pooping all over themselves.

  • MattG

    It occurred to me this morning that the Yankees now have the potential to have a dominant starting staff for < $40M come 2014, even with C.C. Add in the relievers, and they are likely to have a dominant pitching staff for about $52M (so sad to see you go, Mo).

    This trade did great things for the Yankees' 2014 budget plans. You have to have tremendous confidence in that.

    • Fin

      Yes, we are all very happy that the Stiens get more money to put in their pockets. I know I will sleep better.

      • MattG

        I find this to be a very simplistic response. The factors are this: a $189M payroll budget is sufficient to roster a championship quality team, while paying that amount saves the Steinbrenners a 50% luxury tax. As $189M is sufficient, paying more than that amount must be indicative of a failure on the part of management. I wouldn’t expect my favorite team’s owners to be universally accepting of such a failure, or interested in making less money than they should.

        Now, as ownership is responsible for Alex Rodriguez’s contract, as a fan I would expect them to understand if a $189M contract were to, between now and 2014, become insufficient, and change their minds with regards to that budgetary constraint. I do expect winning to come before arbitrary payroll constraints (particularly as substantial profit isn’t an issue). Things being as they are, their intention to get to a $189M payroll makes perfect sense to me.

        It also resets the payroll tax, which means my favorite team might more easily once again exceed the cap when the next great talent reaches free agency, making me a very happy fan.

        • Fin

          See i dont buy it. I think the Yankees have kept their payroll at ~200mil for a long time becasue thats what MLB needs from them. THey cant have the Yankees going 300mil. It would be bad for the game and other ownerns. IF other teams ever get to the 200 mil point, I think you would see the Yankees set thier payroll at 220-250. AS it is the Yankees make the playoffs every year, built a billion dollar stadium and basically dominate baseball.
          I am assuming you’ve been to your fair shair of games Matt. Having been there you know there are almsot as many tourist at a given game as baseball fans. THe Yankees arent jsut a baseball team they are truly entertainment for the masses, baseball fan or not.
          IF it ever came down to winning or budget, winning would prevail every time. THey need to fill that billion dollar stadium every night. Sure they can win with $189m payroll, but they can also loose too. Not loosing is more than a slogan for the Yankees its a buisness model.
          THe Redsox tried to play in the Yankees sandbox and its not going so well, they actually have finacial limitations and cant just bury mistakes with more money. The Yankees do it all the time, hence a 212 million payroll.
          In the end its possible the Yankees are trying to get to $189mil and may be able to do it, I dont see it happening. But fans cheering it on has me flabergasted. IF they do get there it wont effect the onfield product in the slightest.

  • Mister Delaware

    From an objective, “which package would have been more likely to acquire a pitcher like Garza or Shields” standpoint, you’d have to think Pineda/Campos over Montero/Noesi, right?

    • Fin

      I wouldnt have traded for MOntero for Shields or Garza, I think if the Yankees had that desire they probably could have gotten either.

      • Mister Delaware

        You think the Cubs move Garza and a solid prospect for Montero and Noesi? I can’t see that happening.

        • Fin

          Not sure what the Cubs would do. I think the Yankees were looking for a better pitcher than Garza and one year for Montero. Pineda may not be better yet, its close, but given his age and 5 years of team control it certainly seems like a far better get than Garza would have been. I think if the Yankees wanted a Matt Garza type they could probably have gotten that trade done in the last couple years that they have been offering Montero up.

  • PinedaColada

    If anyone is interested on reading about Campos I found a great write up by a MLB Scout
    http://baseballinstinct.com/20.....-mariners/

    • MattG

      Is this MonteroIsDinero?

      • PinedaColada

        No sir it is not

      • Monterowasdinero

        Here I am.

        I like PenaColada too as a handle. Carlos that is.

        I am at a 9. We will be in the post season of course, facing better pitching of course and still hoping Tex/Swish and Martin can hit in the clutch which, so far, they haven’t.

        I love Mariner baseball!

        • Fin

          rofl, love the handle

    • Fin

      Ive read some stuff on Campos, its insane. In one league he struck out 40 and walked 1. LOL, if he was in the yankees system during his breif time, he would be a frikin legend by now.

  • LarryM.,Fl.

    My vote on confidence is 9 up from 8+. As far as the trade I like it. It improves our team in the most important area of need. Losing Montero is emotional for Yankee fans because the homegrown and potential offensive display which we are not in need and no real position for him. Look at 2011 97 wins with an OK rotation. It was done by mashing not by pitching when the mashing stopped in the playoffs the pitching was not equal to the task.

    The potential for Pineda is excellent according to scouting reports. Campos is a work in progress. We saved Banuellos, Betances and Romine plus Warren etc. We have player control for 5 years on Pineda which will allow us to go after Hamels and Cain with Kuroda’s one year signing. Kuroda could be a big bonus.

    Now if we can salary dump AJ Burnett. It could be called a great off season. Feeling great about the playoffs and a WS run based on a very solid team roster in all areas.

    • Fin

      Best analysis I’ve seen so far. Well done sir.

    • MattG

      If Banuelos develops as we all hope (and Nova and Pineda, to a lesser extent), I see no reason to sign Hamels or Cain. Sabathia, Pineda, Nova and Banuelos is already a wonderful rotation.

      I wonder where the Yankees would invest instead? Yadier Molina? Josh Hamilton? BJ Upton?

      • Fin

        I would assume young hitting/thier own hitting. Cano/Grandy possible Swisher. Everyone wants swisher to go becasue he has come up short in the post season, but I would keep him, hes bound to regress in a good way. I would pass on Hamilton, already have old guys having trouble staying on the field why bring in a younger one who has trouble staying on the field. My guess is they play it by ear and if some one makes sence to spend on they will.

      • LarryM.,Fl.

        Where would the Yankees invest if not pitching after ’12. Look no further than the left side of the infield. Depending on Nunez’s development this year. Any money that could be spent should go to the 5 and 6 hole.

        Nunez needs at least 300+ AB’s to see if he has the ability to play full-time in the majors. He should be the first player given the spot when Cano, Jeter or Arod get a day off. The kid has a live bat but when he’s in the field the game gets a little fast for him. He needs some time to learn to slow the game down then he’ll be fine.

  • bpdelia

    I went up from long time 7 to 8. 9 to me is an unattainable goal in the ale. Boston is too rich and too good, tampas pitching too insanely good to be confident of not missing the playoffs.

    I wanted to believe mongrel could catch but he looked very very bad there. Didn’t protect his hand after 5 years catching? More passed balls than all but four TEAMS in Aaa??? At best you were getting four to five years of vmart type part time catching from him.

    Is pineda a sure thing? No. Is pineda 23 and throwing 95,96,97 with wipeoyt slider? Yes. You can succeed with 2 pitches if they are ply plus. Randy Johnson in his prime basically threw two pitches. He will need a change at some point but he has five years until its needed. Throwing 98 a show me change works, or a forkball jammed way back to take off slot.

    Seven. That’s pretty damn good.

    If vignette, Murphy cumber Williamsaustin and Santana develop ill be at 8 next year

  • bpdelia

    And obviously vignette. Is supposed to be bichette. Thanks auto correct

    • Genghis

      I like “mongrel” as well. :)

  • Jumpin’ Jack Swisher

    Still an 8, post-trade. Conventional wisdom and stats bode well for Pineda, but you still have to play the ballgames. Cashman rolled the dice and gave up a major piece in the process. If Montero’s truly a DH then, yes, the production can probably be replaced. Frankly, it’s Kuroda which makes me feel great, and we’ve got another young phenom actually closer to being what we hope he will become.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      Something has to be wrong for me to agree……..

  • Reggie C.

    I’m up to an 8, and I likely won’t budge from an 8 for a long time.

    The loss of Montero’s production won’t be really felt for at least another couple seasons. If Teixeira can post 2009 level performances going forward at least a couple more seasons, then his return to form should keep the offense elite as Arod and DJ slide from age-related decline.

    The rotation … has been discussed to death above and in the past several days. We’re all looking forward to what Pineda and Kuroda can do. Banuelos and Betances get to hone their command another half season, and that’s not a bad development at all.

  • Joltin Joe

    I give a 9, becuase the way I see it, we’ve been it the postseason almost every year since ’95. We’ve had stellar offenses led by stellar hitters many of those years (2007 A-Rod, 2010 Cano, 2002 Giambi,etc.) Did those hitters carry us to championships? In the case of 200 A-Rod, he obviously couldn’t lift the team when needed. In the case of 2010 Cano, he did everything humanly possible in that ALCS, but they still lost. Hitting is completely hit or miss, as you saw last year, when a group of talented hitters completely collapsed in the playoffs. Who’s to say Montero wouldn’t have been like that? In the 96 – 2000 dynasty and 2009, we had a group of great, but not MVP caliber hitters. What we had was great pitching. In my opinion, you need a great offense for the regular season, but the playoffs requires great pitching. I think Cashman always knew that, and the fact that he was willing to wait out the market, even while fans were calling for him to make a move that probably would have been irrational, shows that the Yankees are in good hands. CC+Pineda+Hiroki+SuperNova+Sweaty Freddy= 28

  • Doug

    Have been a 7 for a long time, but with the improved rotation, up to an 8 (and was toying with a 9).

    fyi, for those interested, the average rating went from 7.06 last week to 8.41.

    Needless to say, there’s a lot more confidence around these parts.