RAB Chat 1/6/12
Mike, I’m confused about you saying both that Lincecum might be a non-tender candidate at 28 or 30 Mil next season and then also suggesting that an offer at the trade deadline of Montero, Nova, Banuelos and Williams might be “a little light”. I can’t see how those opinions can be reconciled. If they can trade a guy for that type of package that would make him one of the most valuable properties in the game, pretty much the opposite of a non-tender candidate.
For the record, I think he’s more likely to be a non-tender candidate than fetching that insane package. He put up 4.9 WAR in 2010 and then 4.4 in 2011. If he puts up something similar again then you’re talking about paying a 4-4.5 WAR guy 25-30M in arbitration. Non-tendering him would have to be at least a consideration. I doubt they’d get much for him in a trade.
Even if he rebounds and has a fantastic first half I couldn’t see the Yankees trading that much for him. You’re talking about getting a year and a half of Lincecum. You’re paying almost 40M dollars for that year and a half. If you have 40 million dollars to spend in the next two years, you could have just signed Buerhle (Got 56M total, but some of that is in years 3 and 4-You can invest the extra money now and probably come close to that). Would you rather have Buerhle for 4 years + Nova, Montero, Williams and ManBan or Lincecum for 1.5 years? I can’t see how that trade would make sense for the Yankees.
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