Feb
02

Nationals agree to sign Edwin Jackson

By

Our long national nightmare Edwin Jackson’s free agency is finally over. The Nationals have reportedly agreed to sign the right-hander to a one-year contract worth somewhere around $10M, and now they’re trying to trade John Lannan (and his $5M salary) to balance the books. It’s a great deal for the Nationals, who suddenly have a pretty stacked rotation with Jackson, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, and Chien-Ming Wang. Gotta think there are a lot of teams out there right now wondering why they couldn’t get this guy at that price, maybe even the Yankees (though I’m perfectly happy with Hiroki Kuroda).

Categories : Asides, Hot Stove League

46 Comments»

  1. Bronxbomber98 says:

    Mike, would you have rathered Kuroda or Jackson for one year?

  2. Peter R says:

    Boras might have finally f-ed up. One year deal of that price is pretty weak sauce.

    As someone who lives in DC, the Nats will be fun to watch this year.

    • thenamestsam says:

      I think Boras knows exactly what he’s doing. People said the same thing a few weeks ago when Madson signed, that he lost his touch, misread the market etc., etc. but then Prince gets a billion dollars and everyone is praising how amazing Boras is.

      Boras seems to encourage his guys to wait to sign until late in the offseason. It’s a high risk, high reward strategy. As both the supply and demand dry up sometimes the market just collapses as it did with Jackson and Madson, when all the logical landing spots have gone a different direction. But sometimes one team gets desperate and with very few options remaining they end up overpaying by a ton for someone like Prince.

      I wouldn’t want him to be my agent because I think he pursues that strategy out of self-interest, not a desire to do what is best for his clients. He can afford to be high risk with each individual player because he is diversified across many players. For each failure of his strategy he’ll get a success. As a player I’d much rather sign early at a reasonable rate than try to hold out to get a killer deal and risk getting much less.

      • CP says:

        Just because Boras still gets great deals for some (or even most) of his clients doesn’t mean that he didn’t screw up here. In the past couple of off seasons I can remember at least three negotiations where he could have gotten a better deal (Damon after 2009, Madson and Jackson this year). This doesn’t mean he’s a bad agent, but he’s also not perfect.

        • thenamestsam says:

          You completely missed my point. I don’t think it’s accurate to call those “screw-ups” to the extent that a screw-up represents a failure on his part. Those low contracts are one of the natural outcomes of his strategy, which also results in getting some ridiculously high contracts.

          He waits out the market so his guys will be the last available players at their positions. He knows that will result in some great deals, but also in some below market deals. It’s not that his huge deals are brilliant moves and his terrible moves are screw-ups, they’re both outcomes of the same strategy where whether it works out or not is determined primarily by factors outside his control (i.e. VMart tears his ACL->Prince gets 216M; Yankees, Reds fill rotation spots with trades instead of FA->EJax gets 10M). He’s not perfect, but he does have a plan, and these kinds of contracts are an expected part of that plan, not a failure of the plan.

      • John says:

        Great comment. This is an excellent description of Boras the agent.

    • RetroRob says:

      He’s miscalculated before, but it’s rare. He could have gotten a better offer from the Yankees for Damon after 2009, but his plan to play he waiting game with the Yankees fell apart when the Yankees moved on. Damon then had to take one-year deals with the Tigers and then the Rays for combined money less than the Yankees offer, and Damon also lost out playing for the Yankees.

      Yet how often has that happened? Even when he seems to miscalculate, like with A-Rod and Soriano, he pulls amazing deals, getting teams to negotiate against themselves. He seems to have done it again with Fielder.

      So the Madson’s and the Jackson’s might wonder, what about me?, yet they’re the rarity, and they will both still get their money, maybe a year delayed.

      What was the recent study on Boras? He gets more than 20% higher for his clients than other agents do for their clients. That’s substantial money at that level.

      • thenamestsam says:

        To me it doesn’t even seem like a calculation at this point but like a defined strategy. In the last few years the only high-profile Boras client who signed before being essentially the last guy left in his general market was Werth who signed before Crawford. He always has his guys sign late.

  3. crawdaddie says:

    Let’s remember that Kuroda set the market price for this one year deal.

  4. Jonathan says:

    I bet Ryan Madson and Edwin Jackson didn’t expect those contracts with Boras as their agent. The guy does amazing things but he fucks a few along the way.

  5. Peter says:

    Edwin, Kuroda, Montero (sign hamels or greinke in offseason > Pineda, Kuroda

    • Mark in VT says:

      Wait, are you just saying that in 2013 Montero & either Hamels or Greinke is > than Pineda? Well, yeah, but that has nothing to do with the Pineda trade or the non-Jackson signing.

      • peter says:

        I’m saying not trading Montero and signing edwin would of been the better move short and long term. I think Edwin will probably put up similar numbers to Pineda this year.

        • Mike Axisa says:

          Sure. For 20x the money.

        • thenamestsam says:

          If the Yankees made the trade primarily because they felt they needed a pitcher then they’re completely idiotic. But they aren’t, and they didn’t. They made the trade because they thought they were getting better long-term value than they were giving up. You can disagree with that, but the amount of money Edwin Jackson signed for has nothing to do with it.

        • Bean Tooth says:

          True, their numbers probably will be similar, meaning an established high-dollar value will be just as inconsistent as a dirt-cheap second-year pitcher.

        • CP says:

          Pineda had a 3.42 FIP last year.

          Here is the complete list of seasons Jackson has had a FIP under 3.5: none (his best was 3.55 in 2011, then 3.86 in 2010)

          While it is certainly possible that Jackson will put up better numbers than Pineda, I don’t this it’s likely. Or, more accurately, if they both pitched for the Yankees Pineda is likely to be better (pitching in the NL will help Jackson’s numbers this year).

        • RetroRob says:

          The trade for Pineda was to secure a front-line starter for the longterm, and do so at a low salary. Jackson would provde neither. It’s possible that Jackson and Pineda will be similar in 2012, but the Montero/Pineda deal was about much more than 2012.

        • PinedaColada says:

          I know it’s completely far-fetched and crazy but not only is Pineda cheaper than jackson the chances are Higher that Pineda catches a good feel for his change and puts up Cy young type numbers than Jackson having a similar season

    • ItsATarp says:

      You’re assuming both guys will hit the market. Greinke and Hamels are both have said to be open to extensions

  6. DERP says:

    I can’t believe the rumor I heard was correct.

    http://riveraveblues.com/2012/.....nt-3718294

    No idea how to link it.

  7. Dan in Atlanta says:

    JackSon over hk? For one year Same price kuroda is the better choice

  8. Matt DiBari says:

    I’d rather Kuroda than Jackson

  9. Dan in Atlanta says:

    Mike you know this stuff better than me so could you explain why you would chose ej over kuroda on a one year deal at the same cost. Not trying to be an ass but am interested in what I am missing

  10. Anyone putting any money on the Mets finishing at any position other than last in the NL East? Anyone? Bueller?

    • MayorKoch says:

      My thought exactly. The NL East is appoaching the AL East in depth. How are the Mets and Orioles going to win any of their games!!!

    • Craig Maduro says:

      Hell no! The Mets are going to suck major ass. And that’s coming from someone who roots for them. Their pitching is just…garbage. Their lineup could be ok in the middle, but that hinges on Jason Bay and David Wright getting back to form. It’s going to be a rough few years for Mets fans.

  11. Steve (different one) says:

    I would not be surprised if the Yankees offered kuroda and Jackson the same deal, with the first to accept getting the deal.

    3 weeks ago, Boras was not taking $10M/1 and the Yankees chose not to wait. Jackson supposedly had 3 year offers on the table, but maybe he didn’t want to lose or 3 years in Baltimore.

    I would have been happy with either Jackson or Kuroda, so the fact that Boston got neither is the real news to me. If they do not get Oswalt, I have to think their offseason is a failure. Even trading for Floyd costs them assets they could have saved signing one of Kuroda/Oswalt/Jackson. Me likee.

  12. Peter says:

    That looks like a pretty solid rotation.

  13. JoeyA says:

    I’m glad this was already brought up, but we CANNOT compare this vs Kuroda deal.

    Kuroda deal set market for 1 yr horse-type SPs. We have no idea what Jackson would have signed for w/o Yanks-Kuroda deal.

    So lets please spare this intelligent collection of opinions from the “Yanks should have gotten EJax over Kuroda” BS.

    I have to say though NL East is more competitive than the AL East right now.

    • jjyank says:

      I agree completely. Had the Yankees not signed Kuroda, who knows how the rest of the pitching market would transpire? Fallacy of the pre-determined outcome. The argument to have signed E-Jax is like saying that if you had only walked the #4 hitter with runners on second and third, the #5 hitter would have hit into an inning-ending double play, instead of the #4 hitter knocking in the runs and the #5 hitter grounding out afterwards.

  14. Dan in Atlanta says:

    I still wouldnt trust his consistency (ejax) but your rationale makes sense. Thanks for taking the time to respond. Great site as always

  15. Bronx Byte says:

    The Phillies will be looking in their rear view mirrors all year at what the Nationals and Marlins are doing.
    The Phillies won’t be runaway favorites in 2012.

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