Jun
18

Fan Confidence Poll: June 18th, 2012

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Record Last Week: 6-0 (28 RS, 12 RA)
Season Record: 40-25 (309 RS, 253 RA, 39-26 pythag. record), 1.5 games up in AL East
Opponents This Week: vs. Braves (Mon. to Weds.), Thurs. OFF, @ Mets (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results
Categories : Polls
  • ADam

    at this moment gotta be a 10. Great draft, IMO 9 in a row and the top prospects are performing and/or getting healthy…m

  • Robinson Tilapia

    Where’s my option for voting a “42?” Isn’t that the proper “over a ten” vote? :)

    In all seriosness, staying with my “9” from last week. Obviously, things right now are looking mighty, mighty fine. There’s work to do in 2013 and beyond, and that hasn’t changed a whole lot.

    • Erica

      I’ll vote a 42!

    • Ted Nelson

      I’d vote 28…

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Not a bad option either.

  • Cris Pengiucci

    For no legitimate reason (other then a 9-game winning streak that makes me feel really good), I’m up to a 9. Long term situations still need to be addressed (OF, pitching next season and beyond, Cano, the aging of Jeter and ARod and how best to use them going forward), but the team has the management and financial reseources to address these, while staying within the self-imposed $189M salary budget.

    Just feeling really good about this season and continue to have high expectations for the team going forward.

  • Erica

    9!

    I’m really at an 8.5 but for rounding purposes, let’s go to a 9. I think, as long as they solve the RISP situation (which, let’s face it – probably won’t happen for a while), they’ve got very little to worry about. These sweeps of the Mets, Braves and Nats have been stupid amounts of fun to watch!

    I have also finally accepted Soriano and thoroughly look forward to the violent untucking of his shirt.

  • Ethan

    I find the continued failure to hit with RISP a little worrying, it seems like a continuing trend from last season. Still, this team is getting it done in other ways, home runs, situational hitting and great pitching. All things considered, I’m sitting at a 9. If they can somehow start hitting with RISP this team will be very good if they can keep up the pitching.

  • Michael

    I’m giving the Yanks a Megan Fox 10 !!!!!

  • vin

    Another week, another 8. The big league club is holding up its end of the bargain, but the injuries to some of key minor leaguers (Manny, Romine and Campos) and ineffectiveness (Dellin!) is keeping the score down. Also, how they’re going to safely get to 189 million is still unclear.

  • Cris Pengiucci

    Nearly 200 votes in, and none below a 5 (only one of those and 4 6’s). Seems about right. No one jumping off the ledge at the moment. Godd times!

    • Cris Pengiucci

      *Good times (can’t spell this morning. Need more caffeine).

    • Robinson Tilapia

      You jinxed it.

      • Cris Pengiucci

        Of course. Knew that would bring those that vote low with absolutely no basis in fact out of the wood work. Still, it was nice to see.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          You never hear from the “zero” voters. I’d like for them to chime in once and explain their vote. I doubt they’re our lovable Game Thread boobirds.

          • NoH

            I’m willing to bet that they are just Boston fans trolling because they have nothing better to do.

          • Rainbow Connection (futurely Dummies Playing With Balls and/or RI$P FTW)

            They’re not. At least 2 of them are friends of mine that are Mets fans. I’ve been telling them voting 4 or so would skew the voting lower while being less obvious that there’s isn’t a serious vote, but they don’t think it’s as funny.

            • V

              Do you, or your friends, have any redeeming qualities whatsoever?

  • LarryM.,Fl.

    8.5 is my vote. RISP continues to be an issue even with the 9 game winning streak. OF has used about as much of Ibanez and Jones duo that was planned and its only June. Gardner’s elbow injury has placed an unstable situation in LF which would be a problem in the playoffs without a real corner OFer playing the position. Jeter will need more rest with a capable fill in who is not sitting on the bench. Starting pitching has made an excellent move in the right direction.

    These are issues which if fixed would make the Yankees an excellent team as opposed to the very good one that it is.

    • Ted Nelson

      Jones has played all of about 11 full games in LF and Ibanez about 27…

      • LarryM.,Fl.

        If Gardner were healthy, do you believe Gardner would have been benched 38 games or Granderson would have played about 99.9% of the innings.

        • Ted Nelson

          Do you think that the Yankees went into the season sure that their 3 starting OFs would stay healthy all season?

          • LarryM.,Fl.

            We all know that answer and you know Gardner would not have sat 38 games. You know the Yanks will not stay with the duo of Jones and Ibanez if Gardner is done for the season.

  • MattG

    I realize at this moment that my confidence in the Yankees is monumentally impacted by just two players: Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova. Just how good are these two? Is Phil really suddenly an 8.8 K/9 guy? Is Nova going to maintain 7.7 K/9 with 47% groundballs?

    Those are both #2s…or at least really good #3s. It would be silly to expect the Yankees’ results to continue–they’re getting fortunate in close games at the moment–but with that sort of starting pitching and even luck, that’s a high-90s win team.

    • Reggie C.

      Nicely said.

      It’s why I’m up to an 7. Hughes’s effectiveness has been the most welcomed development in all and is reaffirming my faith in the Yankees’ development team. Most posters of this site had Hughes pegged for a relief role by now after his woeful first month and a half (not sure about that time frame, sorry).

      Pettitte might just be the most wonderfully productive one year contract signing in all the majors.

      The farm has too many current misses to break down, but the continued performance from several Charleston players portend to a new exciting wave of position players who’ll make fine trade chips, and if lucky, future Yankees.

      • Ted Nelson

        Hughes hasn’t been in the minors for years and years…

        Every farm system has far more misses than hits, I’m a little confused there.

    • BK2ATL

      Nova’s been a winning pitcher for the Yanks for almost 1.5 years now. I think the fluke stage has worn off and we need to look past the advanced stats to see the bigger picture. He wins games for the Yanks. Some say that he gets the benefit of run support, but I’m beginning to believe that more analysis of that is needed. As an example, yesterday he pitched mostly with a 2-1 lead. In the end, the Yanks won 4-1. In his starts, for whatever reason, the Yanks usually end up winning. People, including some of RAB, continually underestimate that fact.

      Hughes, to me, has been the eye-opener. He’s been downright effective over the past month or so, looking like the prospect we thought we had years ago. I hope he is able to keep it up.

      It was mentioned on yesterday’s broadcast that, since he rejoined the club, Andy Pettitte has been VERY instrumental in mentoring both Nova and Hughes. Not sure how true it is, but their results since Andy came back have been very good. It would be interesting if Pettitte could break through to them upon arrival, where Rothschild couldn’t since ST.

      • MattG

        “In his starts, for whatever reason, the Yanks usually end up winning. People, including some of RAB, continually underestimate that fact.”

        Really? Your saying that Ivan Nova is a good pitcher for whatever reason? Your evidence is pitcher wins?

        The reason is run support. Put Ivan Nova on the Pirates, and all those wins magically become losses. I am not about to credit a pitcher for the ability of his teammates.

        He is much better at the moment than he was at any other point in his career. Will it continue? There is evidence that it can. None of that evidence has anything to do with pitcher wins.

        • BK2ATL

          Yeah, and put AJ Burnett on the Pirates and he’ll…wait what???

          You’re determined to ignore that Nova keeps the Yankees in games, and when granted a lead, they win. Isn’t that the ultimate determinant for a good MLB starting pitcher? That he keeps the team in position to win the game?

          1.5+ years of evidence confirms that Nova does that. Individual stats are great for fantasy baseball.

          • MattG

            Pitcher wins, LOL.

            4.01 FIP, ranked 34 (out of 94 qualified pitchers, not bad, actually)
            1.72 K/BB, ranked 85
            8.82 runs per game, ranked two

            As for keeping the Yankees in games, Nova ranked 76th in quality start percentage, the stat more or less defined for ‘keeping teams in games.’ It is more accurate to say the Yankees kept him in games.

    • Jim Is Bored

      Even early on when Hughes wasn’t so hot, his K and BB rates were way better this year than last. I think he’s for real.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        If you really, truly believe that the innings burst in 2010 contributed to the issue, then it makes sense that, the further he gets away from that, the better Hughes is going to be.

        I still want to see more from Hughes for an extended period. Everyone knows I’m a huge supporter of his, but I do want to see that he’s going to be worth the investment the team will have to make after next season in him. I don’t do much doubting of Nova at this point, however. He’s a keeper.

        • Jim Is Bored

          I don’t really have any theories as to what caused the issue, but that explanation makes as much sense as any other I’ve heard.

          I too want to see more from Hughes, but his improvements haven’t been luck based, which is encouraging.

      • MattG

        I am with you, mostly. His HR/9, k/9 and bb/9 are incongruous. This simply does not happen in long stretches, but can occur over the short haul. It would seem much more likely that he will bring his HR/9 rate down, into a range more complementary to his other rate stats. I say this, because home runs are more subject to random variation than Ks and BBs.

        But Ks and BBs are not immune to random variation. A couple more starts, and I think we are beyond sample size issues for Ks and BBs…if we’re not already there.

  • BK2ATL

    Staying with my 8. We’re on a roll right now and not exactly playing our best baseball yet, which is pretty scary.

    Still got reservations about the injured (Pineda), and what Banuelos, Betances and the rest of the prospects will do this year. tempering expectations.

    I did read today, I think it was Joel Sherman, that maybe Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies could be in play pretty soon, as the Rockies are out of it and need to rebuild. I know it’s a pipe dream, but that would change the dynamic of my thinking as he’d under control for approx. 5 years and at something like a $12 million AAV. I’d probably go all in on that kid. I’m talking Banuelos/Betances, Romine, Adams, and maybe one of Williams/Bichette/Austin.

    • blake

      Cargo is a really interesting guy if he were available…..the AAV on his deal might be less than Swish signs for.

      • BK2ATL

        Yeah, the AAV plus that 5-tool talent, plus he’d be a LH RF. Put him with Gardner and Grandy and we’d have a very good OF for years.

        I’m really intrigued. He’d be worth the minor league talent lost. However, I have an idea that the Rockies would want one of Hughes or Nova. If only Nunez was healthy and playing better….

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Sure, it’s intriguing. It’s also a rather large solution to something which isn’t really that large a problem.

          Would I do one of the packages described above? Maybe, leaning yes. Would Colorado? Unlikely.

          • Buhner’s barber

            CarGo seems like a great idea until you look at his home/road splits, which are… unsettling.

          • Ted Nelson

            I think Colorado would take it if Banuelos were healthy. You’re potentially offering them two top 25 prospects, according to Keith Law for what that’s worth. Romine and Adams might have to be substituted due to their recent injury histories, and Banuelos would have to come back healthy.

            CoGo has MASSIVE home/road splits. On his career he’s a .331 wOBA hitter on the road vs. .432 at home. Not sure playing a few extra games in Petco offsets that by much. This season he’s at .367 wOBA on the road and .500 in Coors. Despite their humidors and whatnot… that’s still the best hitters’ park in MLB. So, if other teams are smart they’re going to factor that in. Granted, I still think he’s capable of a very strong season in YS… but probably deflate his stats/value a little. Can handle LHP, but has a pretty healthy platoon split as well.

            • BK2ATL

              Yeah, but substitute Colorado 81 games for YS3 for 81 games….

              • Ted Nelson

                Yankee stadium is not nearly as good of a hitting park as Coors. B-R has YS3 at 106 and Coors at 117 where 100 is neutral. Coors is basically 3x higher above neutral than YS3.

                And, while you want guys who fit your park, the idea isn’t to get guys who look good in an offensive stadium and worse in a normal stadium. The idea is to compare players on a park-neutral basis and take the best player, adjusting for strengths that might fit your park in particular. Any lefty power hitter is hypothetically going to fit YS3 to some extent.

      • TomH

        These absurd compacted names were pushed by the entertainment press–the armpit of journalism–to titillate young schmucks in the provinces.

        • Jim Is Bored

          They’re shorter and easier to type, which is easier in this age of mobile everything and twitter. And once something is typed enough, people start saying it. It’s really not anything sinister.

          I dont even know if you were being serious.

    • Ted Nelson

      Would the luxury tax be on his entire deal going back to Colorado, or reset when he’s traded?

      I agree he’s worth a lot, but he also misses time every season and has MASSIVE home/road splits. He’s a career .331 wOBA hitter on the road.

      • Jim Is Bored

        But not everyone who leaves Coors reverts to their away splits as an average. Matt Holiday being one notable example.

        And half of CarGo’s starts are still at home, you can’t just throw 50% of the games away. It’s not like Yankee Stadium would be an unfriendly place to hit. I’m more concerned about the injuries than the splits.

        • BK2ATL

          Esp. as a LH hitter in YS3. He’d do well in RF and in our lineup for us. Might even produce better than A-Rod and Tex in the lineup.

          The intriguing thing is, his contract would be cap-friendly for us, and would solve our RF issue, as well as temper the offensive blow IF we’d have to part with Grandy.

        • Ted Nelson

          You don’t throw away half the games… you analyze a guy’s performance in context. YS3 is not at all the same as Coors. Coors is a 117 where 100 is neutral, and YS3 is a 106…

          Holliday absolutely did revert to his away splits. His away stats were still very good. In 2008, his last full season in Coors, he has a .402 wOBA away. The season before that it was close to .370. He was wOBAing in the mid-.400s at Coors… he hasn’t been doing that overall since he left.

  • bpdelia

    Up from a long standing 8 to 9. If Hughes and Nova are legit mid rotation guys going forward the sky’s the limit. Chareleston bats exceeding u realistic expectations. A smattering of nice useful ml prospects at upper levels. If pineda banuelos and Campos were throwing right now it would have to be a ten for the organization. YCPB suzyn YCPB. I had gone all the way down to 7 at one point. Rough being g a Yankees fan nowadays. You young whippersnappers cant understand what this is like for those of us who came of age with Lane Meyer

  • BK2ATL

    I read yesterday that the Yanks and Braves offered somewhere north of $25 million for Soler. They were both legitimately interested, but probably not willing to go to the extremes to sign him like the Cubs did.

    • Ted Nelson

      Rumors were that the Cubs told Soler’s reps that whatever the highest bid was, they’d continue to top it.

  • OMG! Bagels!

    I’m up to an 8 for the first time this season.

    I worry about “It’s only June, things can change.” which fits whether you’re an optimist or a pessimist. There are many years, you can say about various teams: “They were so (hot/cold) before the All-Star break, and then everything changed…”

    I’m trying hard to keep a positive mindset and am enjoying (A LOT) the current streak.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      I didn’t know you were an Orioles fan.

      *snare*

    • MannyGeee

      “They were so (hot/cold) before the All-Star break, and then everything changed…”

      Clint Hurdle takes offense

      • G

        They were so hot/cold before the All-Star break. Then everything changed when the fire nation attacked.

        Automatic respect for whoever gets the reference.

        Anyway the mobile site isn’t friendly about voting (or anything else really), but I’d be at a 9 right now. Just performing too well for it to be any lower. Some prospects are making me worry a bit but Gary Sanchez is on a tear and I think he’s one of the most important players in our system. Manny has also dominated when completely healthy, so I have high hopes for Jim when he returns. Who knows, maybe the low innings count because of the injuries will open the door for a late season audition should someone falter.

    • Ted Nelson

      While I’m more confident than you, I agree that a win streak shouldn’t significantly change your long-term confidence. Just like a losing streak shouldn’t have everyone voting below 5. Yet, inevitably, people will react to the last 5 games as if they predict the rest of the season and the long-term future of the franchise. You’d swear a lot of people have never watched an MLB season before.

      • Deep Thoughts

        Yep. It’s pretty stressful, like riding a bicycle while only looking down at the ground 2″ in front of your front tire.

  • Manny’s BanWagon

    Best thing about this streak in my eyes is the good pitching from Hughes and Nova.

    Future looks a lot brighter if the young starters continue to progress.

  • MannyGeee

    As bpdelia noted above, I am also up from a long-standing 8 to a 9. And as it was mentioned before by numerous other people in this thread, the jump in confidence has EVERYTHING to do with how Hughes and Nova are throwing right now, IF these two are not pitching over their heads:

    – I think Nova is legit; outside of a blip in the radar the first month of the season, this is the Nova we have known for more than one year…

    – Jury is still out on Hughes. sadface

    If these two are for real, then we are possibly looking at 2 of the starters for this team for a better part of the next decade.

    • MattG

      I disagree on Nova. Jury’s still out on him, too. Other than pitcher wins, there is nothing similar about 2012 Nova and 2011 Nova. He appears to be a much better pitcher now, which would sound awesome, until you realize that he was a mediocre pitcher in 2011 (4.01 FIP, 1.72 K/BB), and it’s a really small sample.

      • Jim Is Bored

        Even a true talent level of a 4.01 FIP has a ton of value for as long as he’s cheap.

        • MattG

          Oh, yes, but I think people want to upgrade him from an inflated starting point, due to pitcher wins. Let’s quell that, please. In 2011, he was a fourth starter that was fortunate enough to have outrageous run support. Despite starting the second game of the ALDS, he does not have the track record of a second starter.

          He’s pitching like one now, but for the first time in his career. This is not a return to form by any means.

  • nsalem

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8qrriKcwvlY

    I am not a child of the 80’s

  • DJ4K&Monterowasdinero

    10 for the regular season.
    8 for the first round
    6 for the 2nd
    6 for the WS if we get there.

    Not enough clutch hitting and certainly not against the elite pitching of the deep post season. They may not be elite now but by the time a team is hot and in the ALCS or WS they are “figuratively elite”. CC has been good but not as dominant as we need so far.

    Changed my mind. 10 for everything.

  • Greg

    I’m an 8. We have been on a roll, despite not hitting with RISP. However, though we have won 9 in a row, we have not gained any real ground on the Orioles who just took 2-3 from Atlanta.

    • Sweet Dick Willie

      Yanks last 10: 9-1
      O’s last 10: 7-3

      Yanks picked up 2 games in a 10 game stretch.

    • Jim Is Bored

      Even in the last 3 games we gained 1. Out of a maximum of 3.

  • Paul VuvuZuvella

    8 holding steady. First time Team’s win streak exceeds my rating.

  • Rob

    http://www.kenoshanews.com/spo.....86117.html

    Good article on Mikolas, our 3rd rounder. Not sure if he was thought to be a sure guy to sign, but Mikolas will sign after the State tournament. Happy to hear that, because I hadn’t heard one way or the other with him. Hope Refsnyder signs too.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Drat, article is behind a paywall.

  • TomH

    Given the team’s current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees’ overall future?

    I take this to entail much more than 2012 season, although the current season is certainly to be considered. The impending salary cap, the age issue (i.e., all those usual suspects), the risp failures, the dearth of ready-to-move-up guys in the high minors all keep me from anything higher than a 5.

    If it were a season-only rubric, well, probably an 8, based on the improved pitching. Unfortunately, it ain’t a season-only issue.

    And since it’s a Yankees-only issue, uplifting comparisons to other teams are irrelevant.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      So, forgive me if I take a few incorrect leaps here but, to me, a “5” is right down the middle, which means you think this franchise is just as likely to win a WS in the next few years as it is to fall flat on its face. I just can’t imagine a world where that’s possible with the NY Yankees.

      • TomH

        What on earth is the matter with you people? You’re like children. Someone answers a poll with a number you don’t like and you start pissing yourselves, as if you took it personally.

    • Havok9120

      That’s a shame.

    • Jim Is Bored

      This is literally the only season where we’ve been this piss poor with RISP. If you’re going to predict the future and not only take this year into account, using RISP failures as a measurement is dishonest.

      And you can interpret the ranking system as you will. I can rank relative to other teams if I so choose.

      • Jim Is Bored

        And in what world do you think there is an impending salary cap? Not this one.

  • http://thecarsboneblog.tumblr.com Raul Ibanez AKA Tom Marvolo Riddle

    7.5, rounded up to an 8.

    While the team has seemingly turned this season around on it’s pitching staff, there are two guys in Kuroda and Andy that just simply won’t be here next year. Also with Cano, Grandy, Swish, and Martin’s impending Free Agency and the impending salary cap a lot of the team’s ability to resign these guys or find replacements for them are going to rest on the surgically repaired shoulder of Micheal Pineda. If Pineda comes back next season and is as good as he was last year, and Nova and Hughes continue to pitch well, then maybe we can give one of the guys in the farm a chance to take that 5th starter’s role for dirt cheap. If, worst case scenario, Pineda is done and cannot come back from the surgery as a useful pitcher (first of all heads should roll) then the team needs 2/3rds of an outfield, a second baseman, a catcher, and 2/5ths of a starting rotation, a bench, and a bullpen with a majority of the salary limit being spent on 4 players…

    • OMG! Bagels!

      Are we voting on this year or next year? I’m confused.

      • http://thecarsboneblog.tumblr.com Raul Ibanez AKA Tom Marvolo Riddle

        I’ve always understood it as voting on the current team, and it’s ability to be successful going forward.

        • http://thecarsboneblog.tumblr.com Raul Ibanez AKA Tom Marvolo Riddle

          If I was just voting on this year it would be a 9 or 10 because we’re on a 9 game winning streak and our offense still can’t hit with RISP, eventually they’ll turn that around and it’ll most likely be when our starters aren’t doing well so our line up will carry the pitching the way the pitching is carrying the line up now.

  • The Scheister of Doom

    Doom! I voted 4 plus 7 minus 5 divided by 2 times 3! Hallelujah holla back, it’s the Yankees revival! Cheeyeah!