2012 Draft: Hensley expects decision to come down to the wire

Scouting The Trade Market: Matt Belisle
Steve Serby's Q&A with Brian Cashman

Via David Collier, first rounder Ty Hensley said he expects his decision about whether to sign with the Yankees or attend Ole Miss to come right down to Friday’s 5pm ET deadline. The two sides have already wrapped up negotiations, they’re just waiting on his decision. If Hensley does not sign, the Yankees will receive the 31st overall pick in next year’s draft as compensation, but obviously they’d rather have the player now. One way or another, we’ll have an answer in less than four days.

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Scouting The Trade Market: Matt Belisle
Steve Serby's Q&A with Brian Cashman
  • yooboo

    I am in Texas and carry something that everyone does not want to know. boo

    • Bunt Gardner

      Romo’s play book?

  • Gonzo

    I wonder if they offered him the full ~$1.8mm or if they offered him less. I guess we’ll find out when he signs.

    • I Live In My Mom’s Basement

      Was there ever a confirmation that Brady Lail actually signed? All we ever got was an article in the Desert News that he was *going* to sig– I haven’t seen anything since. No confirmation in BA, no listing on a roster. It matters to this discussion, since Lail supposedly got a $125K overage.

      Also, I just noticed BA now lists Dayton Dawe as signed.

  • Joe

    What’s the prediction?

    • Gonzo

      Until it’s 5:01 PM this Friday, there is no way I believe all this not signing hype.

    • Rainbow Connection (futurely Dummies Playing with Balls and/or RI$P FTW)

      he signs.

  • Chad Gaudin the Friendly Ghost

    I thought everyone indicated that he was sure to sign?

    • Gonzo

      I don’t see how this changes anything.

    • Rainbow Connection (futurely Dummies Playing with Balls and/or RI$P FTW)

      unless the people know him personally, why would anyone on this sites indications matter?

      • Chad Gaudin the Friendly Ghost

        Via Axisa:

        “According to his Twitter feed, first rounder Ty Hensley is heading to Tampa for a few days to take his physical. That’s a pretty good indication that the two sides are very close to an agreement if one isn’t already in place. Slot money for the 30th overall pick is $1.6M and I’m guessing his bonus will come very close to that. Maybe a little over, maybe a little under.

        Hensley told reporters shortly after the draft that he hopes to sign quickly and reach the big leagues by age 21. The signing deadline was moved up a full month to July 13th this year, so he should be able to throw some rookie ball innings once he officially joins the organization. Everything you need to know about the kid is right here.”

        Axisa’s opinion matters to me.

        • Rainbow Connection (futurely Dummies Playing with Balls and/or RI$P FTW)

          Axisa’s opinion matters to me.

          well thats your first problem, it shouldnt. i respect mike a great deal for his knowledge and the work he does on this site, but his opinion on the likelihood of hensley (who im assuming hes never met) signing and for what amount shouldnt carry much weight, if any. why would it? hes reading the same cliche quotes from the same reporter twitter feeds we all are. his interpretation of reporters info is no more likely to be correct than anyone elses (again, assuming none of us know hensley).

          • Robinson Tilapia

            Partially true.

            He’s a regular dude just like the rest of us, but owning a legitimate site like this does entail spending more time analyzing stuff like this. It’s an opinion, but has to be seen as a more informed one than just any commenter.

            • Jd

              Yes, like when he said Melky would never amount to much. Mike has put together a good site. Let’s not stretch it.

  • J.R.

    He didnt drop that low because of signability, did he?

    • yooboo

      I don’t think so. He dropped because talent movement was changed.

      Since he was drafted out of top 15, signability showed up on his forehead.

    • Rainbow Connection (futurely Dummies Playing with Balls and/or RI$P FTW)

      i think it was just one of those flukey things where everything fell into place and the yanks got lucky he was still there. the appel thing apparently changed the shape of the 1st round.

    • Bo Knows

      The whole appel not drafted #1 shifted a ton of draft boards, word is that a team wanted him for ten but the shakeup meant they could draft someone they had #1 on their boards

      • Ted Nelson

        And yet 19 more teams passed on him. Hensley wasn’t projected to go all that much higher… It’s not a fluke when a guy rated in the mid20s is there at 30. It’s normal.

        • G

          He was projected to go in the late 10s or early 20s, not mid-20s.

          • Ted Nelson

            #23 in BA and #26 in Mayo’s rankings… These rankings are subjective, but the consensus was mid-20s. Even if you want to argue it was early-20ss, it is hardly a shock he lasted until 30.

  • Leg-End

    That’s a lot of cash to leave sitting on the table for a young man. I know all early rounders must think they might be able to get a better deal next time around (cough Cole) but you also have that added risk of injury, especially on a arm.

    I think he will sign, its not like he plain said out the gate he wasn’t going to and we took a risk on him, we must have had some indicator that he would like to sign.

    • KeithK

      Even if he does have a reasonable chance of signing for more in successive years it’s still a lot of money to leave on the table as a young man. Every year delayed is a year where he isn’t driving a fancy sports car, or otherwise enjoying the large bank account. Delayed gratification isn’t something that young people are typically very good at.

  • Gonzo

    The benefit of dragging this out to that last minute for Hensley is that the team can’t have plan B’s ready at 5:01 PM. It’s too late by then. It’s all leverage to get the best possible deal.

    • Brian Cashman is Watching

      Out of interest, I checked Ty Moore’s twitter page (one of the other Yankee draft picks). He tweeted yesterday that he was “still negotiating” in regards to the draft. Kind of curious what that means and how Hensley’s decision affects him.

      • Gonzo

        Yeah, it could go in different directions. Maybe the Yankees have given Hensley a lower than ~$1.8mm deal in order to give Moore some money. Maybe they see Moore as a back up in case Hensley doesn’t sign. So many calculations.

      • YankeeGrunt

        If Hensley fails to sign (or signs for exactly slot), Moore could get up to $315K and change. He has a strong commit to UCLA, it seems unlikely that would be enough to bring him in. Unless they’re offering Hensley significantly less than slot, it just doesn’t seem likely unless he REALLY wants to play pro ball.

        • neo

          Its $236K or so… without Hensley, that money comes out of the pool so the allowed 5% over is less.

          • neo

            Actually, I misread what you said. Its $236K available if Hensley doesn’t sign. If he signs exactly at slot, the figure available might be higher. Haven’t figured that out yet.

        • Ted Nelson

          Meh, a lot of guys break commitments for less. Will get college on top of that.

      • yooboo

        Only 6,300 left without any penalty if Hensley is unsigned.

        5 percentage overage tax of about 2.6m would be 130k max.

        145k will get Ty Moore signed? it will be interesting to find out.

        • yooboo

          Me estupido. I use 10k instead of 100k. It is about up to 235k to get Ty Moore.

        • YankeeGrunt

          That’s a good point, the money from which we could determine the overage without surrendering picks is reduced.

        • Brian Cashman is Watching

          Does that include the first $100K which is not charged to the pool? $225K might get it done.

          • yooboo

            I just add 100k to the full payment in order of Ty Moore.

            • Brian Cashman is Watching

              Yeah, I missed your comment above, sorry. Isn’t this math fun?

    • Ted Nelson

      No. They’ll have the backup plans on the table ready to sign the minute Boras tells them what he’s doing with Hensley.

      • Gonzo

        Yes.

  • Tyrone Sharpton

    He will not sign, but will instead become the #1 pick in 2016

    • Gonzo

      I like your style.

    • Rainbow Connection (futurely Dummies Playing with Balls and/or RI$P FTW)

      …. you mean 2015?

  • Reggie C.

    If Hensley chooses school, I promise not to go ape-sh#t like i did when Gerrit Cole bypassed the Yankees.

    I understand management’s likely stance to refuse to suffer a penalty of losing a 2013 first rounder. That said, Hensley’s people likely are squeezing the budget for every last dime. Hope its enough at the end. The draft class looks a whole of a lot weaker without Hensley.

    I wonder if signing demands caused Hensley to “drop” … His people may have just done a stellar job in hiding his demands from the media.

    • Gonzo

      Yeah, I’m not going to be mad either. If they get a FA comp pick or two next year, combined with this pick, they could be in good position just in case a Giolito falls to them next year. Always a silver lining. I do think he signs though.

    • Ted Nelson

      This year’s draft class looks weaker, but next years would be equally stronger.

  • Reggie C.

    Just wondering … assuming Hensley does pass on the team’s best offer, could the team sign Moore to a $500K sheet and avoid losing its first round pick next season? What’s the penalty on offering Moore that kind of money?

    • neo

      If Hensley doesn’t sign they have about $236K for Moore. If they go over that, they lose their first round pick next year.

      There was discussion in yesterday’s thread about the cost/benefit of going over and forfeiting next years pick.

      • Gonzo

        I missed that thread. I assume not losing the pick won out handily.

      • yooboo

        AH I missed it too. lol.

  • neo

    The suspense is killing me. And as stated by others in this thread, it makes planning for the Yankees harder.

    If the deal is not the max and Hensley takes the deal, they have $XXX for someone like Ty Moore. (XXX is based on amount under the Max plus the $100K they can give anyone.)

    If Hensley doesn’t take the deal, they have about $236,000 for someone else. (If my math in the other thread was right.)

    Hmmm… this has me thinking. If the offer to Hensley is $136 under Max, they could negotiate with the other guys knowing they are covered either way.

    Yankee front office playing poker again. From what I’ve seen of Ninja Cashman over the last few years, I wouldn’t want to play against them. Doesn’t mean they win all the time, but they do have the nerve to play.

    • A.D.

      Else they can always pull the offer to Hensley if others sign

      • neo

        Given the Cliff Lee Seattle trade and other recent events, I think the Yankees would prefer not to pull an offer that was previously told to be 100% firm until the deadline.

        Of course, we don’t know what they said in terms of when they might pull the offer back. We only know that negotiations are done.

        It seems that the Yankees prefer to take the high road on these types of things.

  • Murderers’ Row Boat

    That’s fine kid. Wait it out, get drafted by the Royals next year, make $3.5m and never see the playoffs.

    • Rainbow Connection (futurely Dummies Playing with Balls and/or RI$P FTW)

      he cant get drafted next year. has to wait til after his junior season.

      • yooboo

        Considering the budget must be met in 2014, Yanks have a shot to be owning number one pick for 2015. Lol.

      • Gonzo

        Junior College.

        • Rainbow Connection (futurely Dummies Playing with Balls and/or RI$P FTW)

          ole miss isn’t junior college……..

          • Rick in Philly

            I think what he’s saying is that Hensley can also decide not to go to Ole Miss, attend a JC, and become draft eligible next year.

            • Gonzo

              Bingo

      • Murderers’ Row Boat

        That’s the point. He can either wait and take more money from another team that isn’t as good, or take less and know he’s going to be in a franchise that will always want to win.

        • Ted Nelson

          There’s a better chance he gets less money from another team than more.

  • Brian S.

    :(

  • AP

    Wouldn’t surprise me if the Yanks were holding firm at slot with the hope that they could use the extra 5% elsewhere, while Hensley’s camp is holding out for the full slot+. The Yanks obviously want to be able to do both and might even have a deal with someone else (Moore’s situation sounds like it might fit), but that is dependent on Hensley signing. Hensley and his agent obviously knows this and could be holding off until the deadline with a “give me slot+ or lose both” strategy. Both sides have leverage. Might just come down to who blinks first. Or I could be entirely wrong and the kid is just deciding whether or not to give up college, but that’s not a very sexy scenario, so I’m playing the former.

    • David Brown

      There are basically 5 scenarios that can happen as it relates to Moore. 1: They sign Hensley at their number and use the extra $$$$ on Moore. 2: They pay the full amount to Hensley and no Moore. 3: They sign neither and take the pick next year. 4: They sign Moore, but not Hensley, and sacrifice one of the two picks. 5: They go way overslot, sacrifice next years #1 and sign both. The think to watch is will Moore be in Tampa for a physical before Friday’s deadline. If that occurs, then all five options are in play, if not it is only options 2 & 3. The other question is Dawe. We have heard nothing about him the past 3 weeks, is he coming aboard or not?

      • Ted Nelson

        It’s theoretically possible, but I doubt they give up a first for Moore. I think for Vincent Jackson is more likely than for Moore, not that I think that will happen either.

    • Ted Nelson

      I think you’re right. Hensley’s rep is Boras, who I think is less likely to blink first than any other agent.

  • Mike

    Do you get the feeling this is just holding out for more money?

    The kid said that he wanted to be in the big leagues by the time he is 21, pretty hard to do if he goes to college. Take the $1.8 Mill (if that is the actual amount). These advisors need to be telling the kids if your heart isn’t set on college, take the money.

    Let’s say he goes to college and gets a $1 Mill more. That’s the upside, not to mention that it probably delays him getting to the bigs, getting his salary there and getting to free agency.

    The downside is he is Matt Harrington who kept holding out for more and ended up getting shut out. That’s a lot of risk to take on, especially when going to school could actually cost you a lot of money in the long run. What’s an additional year of Free Agency worth?

  • viridiana

    Maybe there’s something else here but it seems like this kid — so enthusiastic at first — is getting really bad advice if his agent thinks he’ll do better in a few years. Even if Hensley avoids injury and is drated in a higher slot, he will get to the majors much later (and as others have said likely with an inferior system). College ball is no substitute for development in a minor league system. By declining to sign this year he faces huge injury risk — and starts the clock on those juicy MLB salaries that much later. The way this thing has played out suggests he is getting some bad advice from an agent who want to make a name for himself.

    • Ted Nelson

      His agent is Scott fucking Boras. He is getting literally the best advice in the business.

      Tell Bauer how terrible NCAA is for your development.

  • AC

    Didn’t he say draft night hexwsntedcto sign quickly. Did his agent slap him silly. Hold out for more money there is no more.

  • Wayne

    Giolito is not better than Hensley and he is not going to be a dominant starter.Is next years draft deep with pitchers especially with starting pitching if we get th 31 st pick next year?

    • Ted Nelson

      Based on? Dude was basically the consensus 1st overall pick before he got hurt.

  • Ted Nelson

    I find it interesting that him being a Boras guy goes unnoticed. This is all Boras. Kid said he was ready to sign before Boras (and probably his daddy) got a hold of him.

  • john r

    B.A.has DAYTON DAWE Signing for 100,000