Jul
20

2012 Post-Draft Top 30 Prospects

By

(REUTERS/Steve Nesius)

The amateur draft changed in a big way thanks to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, as clubs sniffed out ways to maximize their draft pool money and accumulate as much talent as possible. The Yankees draft college seniors in the sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, and tenth rounds and paid them a combined $50k in bonuses. The savings went to overslot bonuses for high schoolers in other rounds.

For the most part this list is just my pre-draft list with some 2012 draftees squeezed in. The order of the guys who’ve been in the organization a while didn’t change all that much, though I did do some reshuffling. Nothing major though, and besides, the difference between two players ranked consecutively is usually too small to argue. It’s all about personal preference at that point; I don’t think there’s much different between the #16 and #30 prospects in this list.

Here are my preseason and pre-draft lists. No one has graduated to the big leagues — though David Phelps is a handful of innings away from losing prospect status — and no one fell off due to injury. The ages listed are as of today and I’ve included pre-draft rankings in parenthesis where applicable. Let’s dive in…

  1. Mason Williams, OF, 20 (2) — started slowly after the promotion from Low-A Charleston to High-A Tampa, but he’s gotten in a groove of late and figures to be a top-30 prospect in baseball after the season
  2. Gary Sanchez, C, 19 (3) — has shown the same power this year as last (.229 vs. .219 ISO) while cutting down on the strikeouts a bit (23.1 vs. 27.1 K%)
  3. Manny Banuelos, LHP, 21 (1) — it’s been a lost season for the team’s best pitching prospect due to an elbow injury, but he’s still way ahead of schedule as the youngest player in the Triple-A International League
  4. Tyler Austin, OF, 20 (7) — the MVP of the farm system so far has already been bumped to High-A Tampa and has a realistic chance of reaching Triple-A Scranton as a 21-year-old in the second half of next season
  5. Jose Campos, RHP, 19 (4) — another season lost due to an elbow injury, Campos still has plenty of time to catch up like Banuelos due to his age
  6. David Phelps, RHP, 25 (8) — he’s shown improved velocity this season and has progressively gotten better during the summer while pitching in the big leagues
  7. Ty Hensley, RHP, 18 (N/A) — his mid-90s fastball and power curveball is the best two-pitch mix in the system, and whatever shoulder abnormality they found during his pre-signing physical isn’t serious enough to keep him off the mound
  8. Dante Bichette Jr., 3B, 19 (6) — it’s been a disappointing season for last year’s first rounder, specifically his lack of power (.081 ISO) with Low-A Charleston
  9. J.R. Murphy, C, 21 (10) — he’s reached Double-A Trenton and has quietly shown big time improvement behind the plate, particularly with his throwing (thrown out 32 of 96 attempted base-stealers, 33%)
  10. Ravel Santana, CF, 20 (11) — the ankle injury is fully behind him and the bat has started to come around after a slow start with Short Season Staten Island
  11. Ramon Flores, OF, 20 (14) — it’s easy to forget he won’t turn 21 until next March because he’s been around for a while, but he’s having another strong year and could be with Triple-A Scranton at this time next year
  12. Austin Romine, C, 23 (13) — the back injury has effectively wiped out his season, but he has started to appear in some low-level rehab games over the last week or two
  13. Slade Heathcott, OF, 21 (15) — has played the field sparingly following his second left shoulder surgery but is already two walks shy of last year’s total in 121 fewer plate appearances
  14. Angelo Gumbs, 2B, 19 (19) — easy to overlook given the other star power at Low-A Charleston, Gumbs showed serious power (.162 ISO) and speed (26-for-29 in stolen base attempts, 90%) before hurting his elbow on a swing
  15. Dellin Betances, RHP, 24 (9) — his control deteriorated to the point where basic strike-throwing had become a challenge, resulting in a demotion to Double-A Trenton
  16. Mark Montgomery, RHP, 21 (17) — the strikeout extraordinaire (14.7 K/9 and 39.4 K% as a pro) has reached Double-A Trenton and should be big league ready at this time next year
  17. D.J. Mitchell, RHP, 25 (12) — has been used sparingly in several big league stints, but he’s very quietly put up his best strikeout (7.6 K/9 and 19.7 K%) and walk (3.0 BB/9 and 7.9 BB%) rates with Triple-A Empire State since his first pro season in 2009
  18. Nik Turley, LHP, 22 (22) — blister problems have been a speed bump this year, but the big southpaw just continues to get better and better each year and with each start
  19. Austin Aune, SS, 18 (N/A) — a left-handed hitter with pop who was drafted as an outfielder, this year’s second rounder will stay at shortstop until he shows he can’t handle it
  20. Adam Warren, RHP, 24 (16) — forget about his disastrous (and only) big league start, his performance in the minor leagues has gone backwards for the second straight year
  21. Brett Marshall, RHP, 22 (18) — hasn’t missed a start since having Tommy John surgery in late-2009, but the lack of strikeouts (5.7 K/9 and 15.4 K%) at Double-A Trenton is a concern
  22. Peter O’Brien, C, 22 (N/A)– whether he can remain behind the plate long-term remains to be seen, but O’Brien offers some pop from the right side and catchers who can hit are very hard to find
  23. Bryan Mitchell, RHP, 21 (20) — he flashes pure dominance at times thanks to be the best curveball in the organization, but he still has a long way to go before harnessing it all
  24. Zoilo Almonte, OF, 23 (23) — he’s mashed since returning from a hamstring injury but is going to have to do a lot more to force his way into the outfield picture at some point in the next year or two
  25. Cito Culver, SS, 19 (21) — it’s been a real struggle offensively for the team’s first rounder of two years ago, but he’s shown nice plate discipline (13.1 BB%) and can play the hell out of the shortstop position
  26. Ben Gamel, OF, 20 (25) — missed some time with a minor injury but has shown contact skills and more recently some power potential in the form of doubles
  27. Greg Bird, C, 19 (24) — played in just four games for the Rookie Level Gulf Coast League Yankees before a back strain sidelined him, and the unconfirmed rumor is that his days as a catcher are over and he’ll return as a first baseman
  28. Nick Goody, RHP, 21 (N/A) — this year’s sixth round is a potential quick moving power reliever capable of missing bats within the strike zone with his fastball-slider combo
  29. Corban Joseph, 2B, 23 (30) — a shoulder injury delayed the start of his season, but CoJo has moved up to Triple-A Empire State and has started to answer some of those power questions by hitting hit two more homers than last year in 261 fewer plate appearances
  30. Jordan Cote, RHP, 19 (NR) — the big and raw right-hander has made great strides with his delivery and command since signing and is poised to zoom up these rankings within the next few months

I jumped the gun big time with RHP Rafael DePaula, who I ranked fifth (!) in the pre-draft list even though he hadn’t even appeared in a game yet. My usual policy to leave international free agents unranked until they make their U.S. debut, which DePaula has yet to do because he’s spending the season in the Dominican Summer League. That’s why I left him out this time, I was just uncomfortable ranking him without an assignment to one of the six domestic affiliates.

RHP Chase Whitely (26), UTIL Ronnie Mustelier (27), LHP Daniel Camarena (29) were squeezed out in the numbers crunch. Camarena’s shoulder issue didn’t help his cause either, though I remain a big fan. 3B/OF Rob Segedin and 2B David Adams were both right on the bubble as well, the latter because of continued injury concerns. He’s hitting though, let’s just hope he can stay on the field going forward. I also really like RHP Gio Gallegos and it’s hard to ignore LHP Vidal Nuno, but I need more info on both guys before I can start ranking them somewhere. You can’t scout a box score.

Categories : Minors
  • DERP

    Love these posts.

    Hasn’t Phelps spent too many days on the active roster to retain his prospect status?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Probably but I don’t keep track of service time. Too much work. The AB and IP limits are good enough for me.

  • Elmgrovegnome

    No Jose Ramirez on that list?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Nah, he’s been hurt and the performance is all over the place. I like him too, just hasn’t been much progress made these last two years.

      • Preston

        But scouts say he’s the best arm in the system and that Flores is 10 times better than Mason Williams. I kid.

      • Tremont

        I agree that Ramirez should be on the list, probably somewhere between 20-24. How is a guy like Nick Goody a better prospect than him? His upside is probably an 8th inning guy. I think Ramirez’s upside is considerably higher. He still has starting on the table, and if that didn’t work out he could probably be at least good a relief prospect as Goody. Goody was a 6th rounder a month ago.

        • Ted Nelson

          People overuse the injury prone label for guys who have one injury, but in this case the guy is legitimately injury prone. Could overcome it, definitely, but it’s a big knock at the moment. Can’t just ignore probability to focus on upside: expected return is a function of both. An 8th inning guy with high probability can absolutely have a higher expected return than a higher upside guy.

          And round drafted is pretty irrelevant. Of this exact list’s top 6 the 3 US guys were 4th round and in the teen rounds.

          • Tremont

            Ted, why am I not surprised that you chose to ignore that I mentioned that he was drafted in the 6th round just ONE MONTH AGO? Stop isolating parts of sentences and depriving them of their context. The other guys have proven something. And Williams got a 7-figure bonus.

            • Ted Nelson

              For one thing Goody has cruised and has already been promoted to A ball.

              I was mot ignoring anything, though. It doesn’t matter when he was drafted. If Mike already scouts him and sees a steal, why should he wait to say as much? One can agree with or disagree with the consensus on a prospect.

              Why am I not surprised you ignored my entire argument?

              • Tremont

                I addressed a very misleading point that you made. Draft position might be irrelevant 2 to 4 years after a player is drafted, but it’s not irrelevant after 12.1 professional innings. That’s not a minor distinction.

                It’s hilarious that you think Mike’s observations of maybe 3 innings of work in Short Season ball (I don’t even know if he’s seen that much) are valid, but you completely poopoo the idea that anyone could have seen anything in David Phelps in 40 innings to make them think he was a big league starter.

                • Ted Nelson

                  So when I disagree with you I’m nitpicking, and when you disagree with me you are addressing “a very misleading point?” Now I see how it works…

                  I disagree with you. Draft position is not relevant from the very moment someone is drafted. Teams reach, teams miss prospects. If Goody was picked in the 2nd round by Team X, he would not be a better or worse prospect, not if he slipped to the 22nd round.

              • Tremont

                If it REALLY doesn’t matter where he was drafted, I suppose you are really juiced about Saxon Butler.

                • Ted Nelson

                  It has nothing to do with his draft position. He’s a senior 1B in SS. I’m glad he’s doing well, sure. He could exceed expectations. Realistically could become a AAAA guy or end of bench guy, and there’s always a chance for more. Doesn’t mean he’s a strong prospect, though.

                  Goody was well regarded before the draft, which is something you seem to ignore. He was one of the better prospects among NCAA relievers. I saw LSU a few times, and I liked him. I’ve read a lot of good stuff. I never saw Butler in college, but also never heard he was a stud. If he were the same player with the same hype drafted in the 6th round or 13th round, he would not be a different player.

                  • Tremont

                    Being one of the most highly regarded college relief pitchers in the draft is not high praise. It’s like being one of the most highly regarded kickers in a draft. How many college relievers in a given draft ever provide much value at the big league level?

              • Tremont

                Mike can disagree all he wants. And I can disagree with him. Why is this a problem for you?

          • Tremont

            And Goody’s upside is an 8th inning guy. He doesn’t have a high probability of being an 8th inning guy.

            • Ted Nelson

              How much higher can hos probability be? Guy was a successful NCAA reliever and has crushed it in his debut. Could be in MLB his first or second full season as a pro.

              Why have you arbitrarily decided his ceiling is 8th inning and not 9th?

              • Tremont

                I haven’t decided that. The industry did. If they thought he was a future closer, he wouldn’t have slid past the second round. The “ceiling” debate can get a bit nebulous, I suppose. Hypothetically, Tim Flight COULD turn into an ace.

                Probability would get a lot higher when he is getting it done in the upper minors. And when he has more than 12.1 pro innings under his belt. Is his pro debut that much better than Pinder and Wetherell’s last year. Do they have high probabilities of being 8th inning guys?

                • Ted Nelson

                  Goody was well hyped by “the industry” though. I remember hearing about him in just about every write up I read of the Yankee draft.

                  • Tremont

                    And yet 216 players were taken before him. And it had nothing to do with signability. He got less than slot. Unless he’s suddenly sitting in the upper 90s or something else completely unforeseen, how much could his stock have drastically changed in a month? If you don’t let draft position, particulary of a college reliever, have any bearing on how you evaluate a miniscule sample, I think you’re lost.

                    Once again, I strongly suspect that you don’t actually believe what you are saying. You are arguing for argument’s sake. If you think being picked 217th out of college says nothing about a player’s ability a month later, I’ll leave you to it.

  • Murderers’ Row Boat

    I’m not sold on Mason Williams. He seems like another Jose Tabata.

    • pat

      In what sense?

      • Murderers’ Row Boat

        Similar numbers in low minors, same kind of projection. However Williams is better defensively. The Yankees also have a habit of marketing young talent they think could be trade bait, and down playing talent they like.

        • Tremont

          The Yanks aren’t really marketing him. And even if they were, the information most worth paying attention to comes from outside the organization. He’s consistently ranked in the 20-32 range on mid-season prospect lists.

          • The Guns of Navarone

            Yeah, I hate when I read, “The Yankees overhype their prospects.” I even surprisingly read that stuff on Frangraphs. I don’t think the Yankees have any ability to hype a prospect. They’re all scouted by independent talent evaluators who work for websites like Fangraphs or work for other baseball teams. They have no reason to say a Yankees prospect is better than he really is.

          • http://www.twitter.com/JoeRo23 The Honorable Congressman Mondesi

            Yeah, but don’t some (or a lot?) of the people who put those lists together rely on a significant amount of information from each organization’s scouts and other representatives?

            I’m not wading into this argument, I really don’t know if the Yanks “market” certain prospects to inflate their value or not. But I do think a particular prospect showing up on a bunch of prospect rankings could be a sign that the prospect is being touted by the organization, possibly (and perhaps partially, etc.) for “marketing” purposes.

            (Or were you saying that he shows up on a lot of prospect lists from people who we know do not take organizational reviews/information into account?)

            • I am not the droids you’re looking for…

              Hey what are you doing here??

            • everdiso

              of course they market their prospects. tabata garcia shelley duncan the list goes on and on. this happens everywhere except yanks are more well known so you hear about i more

              • Ted Nelson

                No, most prospects just fail to reach their potential. Doesn’t mean they didn’t have the potential in the first place.

                Tabata was found to be older than he claimed, which lowers power projection pretty significantly… But he’s still had a couple of successful MLB seasons. As far as prospects go he’s a success overall.

                Christian Garcia? Dude had injury problems.

                When was Duncan hyped? He was a solid NCAA bat who has become a decent AAAA guy.

              • Tremont

                When was the industry buzzing with Shelly Duncan and Christian Garcia hype? You follow the Yankees and probably visit tons of Yankee-centric websites. I think this has distorted your view of how hyped they were.

            • Tremont

              I am saying that any information from within an organization would probably be taken with a grain of salt by independent evaluators on the Keith Law/ Baseball America level. They have enough sources on the outside, along with their own eyes, to buy into organizational hype. They have a lot invested in providing as reliable a reflection of minor league talent as possible.

              • Tremont

                If anything, I think they would be especially wary of prospects from an organization had a reputation of overhyping their guys.

      • Preston

        Yeah I don’t see it. Mason Williams is a true CF, so he won’t be a tweener lie Tabata. Plus his offensive profile currently looks like Austin Jackson, in that he has great contact skills. Except unlike Jackson, Mason is young enough to develop more patience and power.

        • Tremont

          Austin Jackson struck out a TON

        • YanksFanInBeantown

          Great contact skills?

          Are we talking about the same Austin Jackson here?

        • yooboo

          It is difficult to realize the true tools out of kids below AA. However, 2 things that kill the comparison of Jackson and Williams.

          BB:K ratio.
          Lefty against short porch.

        • Preston

          The Jackson comp wasn’t meant to be a criticism. Jackson has good contact skills, he K’s a lot because he chases pitches out of the zone. The point I was making was that if Mason Williams doesn’t improve his approach (BB more) or develop more power, he already looks like Austin Jackson, a guy who’s produced almost 11 WAR in his 2+ seasons, and with his age and level, I think he can improve both. Plus a benefit for the Yankees is that he’s a lefty.

    • The Guns of Navarone

      I disagree. Tabata was being billed as Manny Ramirez-like. Now, that’s obviously a ridiculous comp, but the point is that Tabata was all about his power projection.

      I fell like Mason’s ability revolves around his speed, defense and contact skills. Some believe the power will develop as he ages, but if he develops into a 20-25 HR guy it will be a huge bonus.

      • Voice of Reason

        who the heck billed Tabata like that?

  • Elmgrovegnome

    Another question – Hasn’t Phelps exceeded expectations at the major league level? Is that due to a superior pitching coach?

    • Ted Nelson

      Yeah, he’s improved his velocity and maybe more than that. Coaching could be part of it, but I think reports were that he showed up to ST with the improvements made.

      There are definitely better and worse coaches, but sometimes there are also just the right coaches due to philosophy or personality. I feel like sometimes people get a little hung up on calling coaches good and bad when a lot of times management can be a bit circumstantial.

  • Donny

    Despite the consensus feeling that it has generally been a down year on the player development side, the minor leagues seem to be loaded with alot of potential.

    On another note, I feel one of the weaknesses of the team has been the lack of ready to contribute minor league outfielders the past few seasons. It now appears that there are five legitimate outfield prospects (Williams, Austin, Santana, Flores and Heathcott). Hopefully, two of them can pan out so that payroll can go to locking up Cano and going after another frontline starter rather than overpaying for Granderson and Swisher.

    • Ted Nelson

      I agree this season has been fine overall. I think people lose the big picture over a few setbacks.

      I would say that they have produced a lot of OF talent, but have moved a lot of it because they didn’t need it and/or got good value for it. Gardner, AJax, Melky, and Tabata come to mind.

      • Dan

        I agree, and it seems like most of the OF talent they have left will be ready around 2014 at the earliest (Flores, Austin, and Williams), which makes me wonder if this might lead to the Yankees being more likely to let Granderson walk if his price tag gets too high, and the same for Swisher this year and have a one year platoon to get to next season.

  • Reggie C.

    Elbow Injuries effectively wiping out the org’s two best pitching prospects really casts a shadow over the list. I really hope the yankee docs in Tampa are right in treating these guys with rest and gradual throwing exercises. I hadn’t realized Gumbs was still out with his own elbow injury.

    Yikes man! This is the year of the bad elbow.

    I’d drop DB to the 11 spot and bump Flores to the 10 spot. dB hasn’t been injured yet he’s still sporting a very weak .645 OPS. Flores may be a tweener for a corner OF, but he’s showing basic hitting skills that’ll make him a 4th outfield type. Since FSL is also a pitchers league, Flores might offer some more power projection that’s untapped.

  • JohnC

    Mike:

    How bad is Camarena’s shoulder issue? Will he pitch at all this season?

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      It’s nothing serious like a tear, but he might not pitch at all this summer. There’s only about six weeks left in the minor league season.

  • Ted Nelson

    Love the depth in the system.

    I like the marginal changes in this list compared to the pre-draft list.

  • vin

    Would you mind comparing/contrasting the Trenton OFers (Melky, Almontes)? I know Zoilo made a nice impression in ST, but Abe seems like he might have a future (more of a speed guy, less power than Zoilo). Also, how does Melky stack up to them? The Almontes are both 23, and Melky is already 25, but their statistics are more or less compatible.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      Melky’s the tools guy, he can run, throw, and hit for power but the contact skills are lacking. He’s improved in that department this year though.

      Abe’s just a speedster/leadoff type. He’ll work the count and draw walks, kinda like Brett Gardner without that level of defense. He’s a switch-hitter too.

      Almonte’s mostly a bat, a true switch-hitter without any significant platoon split. Probably going to be stuck in LF down the line.

      I have the three Zoilo > Abe > Melky

      • vin

        Good stuff, thanks!

      • yooboo

        One scout said that Mesa has life left on prospect status and Zolio is the worst contact hitter.

        I am not sure this scout has creditability but what does it mean? Mesa is struggling to lay off breaking ball and it is doubtful that Zolio can hit fastball regularly in MLB level?

      • Monty

        During Spring Training, I thought Zoilo was going to be the answer to Swisher in 2013.

  • Reggie C.

    DePaula being 21 and DsL assigned seems like there’s something else going on. Are there family issues? The visa stuff was settled right? Anyways, here’s hoping Luis Torrens checks in at the GCL from the get go and tears it up. Torrens was unanimously regarded as a top three player in the ’12 class.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      The IFA guys signed 2013 contracts. Torrens may be in the GCL next year.

      • yooboo

        I wish Torrens were a switch hitter. boo. I like his size for defense and power.

        • Tremont

          You’re booing that he isn’t a switch hitter?

  • pat

    Turley and Flores. My homies. Bigtime sleepers.

    • pat

      Oh and Bird is definitely done as a catcher.

      • yooboo

        Too early to declare. Don’t you think?

        • pat

          It’s already been declared by the Yankees. He was never a legit option there anyway.

          • yooboo

            When? He just plays this season and it is not enough to warrant this kind of declaration.

            • Tremont

              It is if they say it is. They see the guy every day. And they have been extremely reluctant to give up on catchers.

              • Ted Nelson

                I think yooboo was asking for a source, and calling out pat’s declaration not the Yankees’.

  • yooboo

    David Phelps, RHP, 25 (8) — he’s shown improved velocity this season and has progressively gotten better during the summer while pitching in the big leagues——-

    I have been hearing or knowing of him being 89-91 with rare 95. So far I have watched on TV (granted gun varies but), he is consistent on 90 mph with a good bunch of 92’s in MLB. I am not sure what does velocity mean but all I know is his fastball has strong finish which is much better than his first spring training debut (2 years ago).

    • vin

      I’ve been on Phelps’ bandwagon since he was in Charleston. I was always impressed with his consistency… didn’t walk many guys, struck out a decent amount, and generally limited runs.

      Since he was a college guy, peple assumed he should pitch well in the low minors, but he managed to maintain his performance as he climbed the ladder… even as he reached the bigs.

      In my amateur opinion, he’s got good movement, solid command, and enough velocity to make it all work. Also, all signs point to him being “a competitor” on the mound.

      • CS Yankee

        Has he always been “a competitor” on the mound? Seems like since ST this year, he has shown some moxie, or was that always there?

        Seemed real focused, almost like our MFIKY-closer last night. Me like.

        • yooboo

          When he wears baseball uniform, he is stoic.

          I remembered the situation where Phelps got rocked badly in 2 spring training ago, Roth and Romine came to the mound to visit him and Roth made a light humor dialogue. Romine chuckled and Roth kind of smiled. Phelps remained stoic. I don’t remember seeing him smile when he pitched well.

          I guess he gets nickname “Bulldog” for reason.

  • DERP

    At what time should we start expecting results from Bryan Mitchell?

  • NYCSPORTZFAN

    Aweome fun to read this Mike! I personally have Flores ahead of Bichette on my personal list, as i think he offers more, as a prospect(bigger package of goods).. Sure, he might project to a tad less power, but even that is bettrer then BIchette at the Moment.. I remember talking about Flores with u about 2yrs ago?, and Aksing if he were a legit prospect and u said “yes”, and since hes done nothing but show a well rounded game and almost seemingly has progressed as expected.. Flores over BIchette is probably my biggest issue with ur list..

  • Monty

    Sort of an unrelated but related question… since the Yankees take forever to develop/promote prospects, if Trout was in the Yankees system instead of with the Angels, where would he be right now? Sitting somewhere in Tampa waiting for the call to Trenton?

    • yooboo

      when he was drafted, his hitability was in question due to the winter interfered season. Once he shows he can hit, he would skyrocket and he could play LF for us right now.

      Yankees have tendency to draft raw prospects. Kennedy, Chamberlain and almost Hughes went to MLB in less than 4 years. IFA signee Montero finished AAA season as 20 years old.

    • CS Yankee

      Only if he was a catcher.

      • CS Yankee

        Well, a DH/C would be held down.

    • vin

      You’re not @SnapDragonMonty on twitter, are you? Would make a lot of sense if you were.

    • Ted Nelson

      I don’t know that the Yankees have any tendency to hold prospects down. They have several of the youngest players at several levels and that’s nothing new for them. Fans just tend to have unrealistic expectations.

      • Ted Nelson

        For example… Slade was drafted just behind Trout and despite missing a bunch of time due to alcoholism and injury he’s technically in his second High A season. Not a stretch to say he’s be in AA (with same year drafty Murphy) just without the one most recent injury and maybe AAA or MLB if it was smooth sailing. And his numbers have not been Trout-like by any stretch.

    • JobaWockeeZ

      If Trout were on the Yankees he would probably be an Angel. And instead of Trout the Yankees get some random number three starter.

  • DERP

    Do you Turley is more likely to get added to the 40 man after the season than Marshall? I think this is the first time that you have had Turley higher than Marshall.

  • CS Yankee

    A little disapointing that two guys who haven’t really played this year (Romine & Slade) moved up during rehab despite more players due to the draft?

    I guess this means that either you are (mis)remembering them in a favorable light or we have too many non-performers (Dellin). Which begs the question, is it better to under perform and grind through a tough year or be injured and maintain (or enhance) your ranking?

    I love these posts (if fact, some of your best work), but feel that a prospect shouldn’t move up if they haven’t played (as a rule).

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      The difference is two spots, one of which is do to me taking the DePaula out, the other due to Betances continuing to fall apart. They didn’t move up as much as other guys dropped down.

      • CS Yankee

        Understand, but tough seasons can pay dividends down the line…being injured hurts your development and can create a logjam for certain positions.

        I was surprised to not see Ronnie (must be age) and Adams (guessing duration at a level).

        A great post (project) would be how many impact players and prospects each team has in the pipeline. Guessing the NYY have maybe 3 impact players and 30-some prospects. If so, is that above average or are their teams with 5/40+ players?

  • NYCSPORTZFAN

    Surprised Cote is the last on ur prospect list? Drafted a big RH’er with loads of upside, and hes started by dominating and he’ll be making a jump here very shortly i’d imagine..

    A guy like Bryan Mitchell has been all Upside and very little results, and has much less of a frame, and didn’t even get off to teh start Cote has, as Cotes dominated GCL and Mitchell just did “ok”.. I think Cote projects to the ML”s better because of his frame and seemless transiton from HS to the pro’s, albeit just about the lowest level.. At some point, i think Bryan Mitchell is gonna have to start putting up results, to desrve his ranking, and as of right now, a guy like Cote has more to offer, untill Mitchell starts prooving diffrently..

    • Ted Nelson

      Mitchell is putting up 9.5 K/9 in full season ball at 20. And it’s in keeping with 2 seasons before it. He’s struggling with consistency, but if he weren’t I have to imagine he’d be ranked a whole lot higher given his stuff… Like top 5-10. If he were consistent he’d be ridiculous, a bunch of his starts have been dominant.

      I like Cote and am thrilled at his start, but it’s 30 IP. Mike specifically says he can zoom up the rankings, but let’s see him earn it first.

      I don’t think frame has much room in the discussion personally.

      • NYCSPORTZFAN

        Oh, i’m not saying Cote should be 15th on the prospect list.. But ur talking about earning things, and guys like Dante Bichette, who was only picked up a rd or so before cote, is ahead of Ramon Flores.. Has Bichett earned that with his play in low A chaleston? No way! So, it has to be his play in GCL.. Also, has Austin Aune earned anything yet? Most of this list is guys who haven’t earned things yet, and were pickedin the range of Jordan Cote.. Also, Cote has dominated in the GCL, which isn’t much, but much more then Bryan Mitchell has..

        Cote also has alot of projectiablity in his frame, which certainly means something, as it could add to his fastball, the bigger and stronger he gets..

        • Ted Nelson

          I largely disagree with the whole frame thing. It’s a general trend, but there are so many exceptions that I don’t see it as particularly useful.

          Mitchell already has a good FB and one of the best breaking Ps in the system. He’s just not consistent.

          It’s not my list. I think that right now it’s fine to have Mitchell ahead of Cote, though. Bichette also crushed the GCL a year before Cote is, and he was then skipped a level. He’s stumbled, but if he were in EXST then SI this season… he might be crushing it. Or he might be just as bad. Who knows?

          The point is to take tools and raw ability, and then look at what people are doing with it. When I say earn it, I mean that Cote has less stuff than Mitchell and is one year younger two levels behind him. He starts at a disadvantage. He’s got the upside/projectability, sure. Let’s see what he does. Despite not meeting your approval, Mitchell has struck out a lot of guy over an actually relevant sample and gotten slightly better at missing bats each of the past three seasons.

          As Mike said, the difference between 16 and 30 is not all that great. If there’s one at all.

    • pat

      Cote absolutely does not have more to offer at this point. He’s a little bit taller that’s it. Mitchell has a much better fastball and better secondary stuff. Cote barely cracks 90 mph at this point.

  • yooboo

    What is the odds that Slade Heathcott will be next Josh Hamilton?

    2 things do not include in: Personality and where they drafted.

    • jjyank

      Zero?

    • Gonzo

      Probably much worse than you think. Probably zero or the statistical equivalent.

      • yooboo

        The statistical equivalent is kind of far-fetching. yeah..

        So he wont have any bright future in MLB at all as you guys suggest. damn.

        After learning that Tyler Clippard, Christian Garcia and Jimmy Parades have played well in post-Yankees time, I was just wondering about Slade Healthcott’s being end up as ?

        • Gonzo

          He might have a MLB future, but Josh Hamilton is far off. That was never his ceiling when he was coming out of high school to begin with.

          • Ted Nelson

            He wasn’t as highly regarded as Hamilton himself, but part of it was also probability (known off field issues). Not arguing he would have gone number 1 overall without the issues, but with all that athleticism and stength I think it was a legit ceiling. He had the athleticism where if everything went right it could have happened. Especially considering he was a two sport guy with off-field issues who had the potential to blossom focusing only on baseball with some money in his pocket (and also the potential to spiral out of control much more than he did, of course).

            • Gonzo

              Oh gawd, I’m getting sucked in again. I don’t think anyone thought Josh Hamilton was his ceiling.

              This is just semantics. If you think every great two-sport athlete has Josh Hamilton upside, that’s where we disagree. Is that what you’re saying?

              • Ted Nelson

                You’re getting sucked into what? Puttin words in my mouth? If that’s what I wanted to say, why wouldn’t I have said it?

                Slade had HUGE upside based on his athletisicm to play CF and strength to be a power hitter, not to mention his baseball instinct and competitive nature. If everythin had gone right after he was drafted, he had the ability to be a .400 wOBA CF. Was the best case, but that’s what a ceiling is. No one projected him to be Hamilton, but it was his ceiling: CF hitting for power and average, could have maybe stolen 50 bases and woth that and defense have been better than Hamilton. We hbe new info now, but didn’t then.

                • Gonzo

                  I didn’t put any words in your mouth.

                  Josh Hamilton was a phenom of the Bryce Harper level coming out of high school.

                  Saying what you’re saying is silly to me. That wasn’t his ceiling coming out of high school. Unless, everyone else’s ceiling taken ahead of him was Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds.

                  • Ted Nelson

                    We are not comparing Hamilton the 18 year old to Slade the 18 year old, though.

                    We are comparing Slade the 18 year old to Hamilton the actual player. Hamilton maybe could have been even better, but he’s not. He’s great, but he’s 6th in fWAR the last 3 years and 17th the past 5 years. He’s not Barry Bonds. Not close.

                    Teams don’t draft ceilings. They draft players and more so people. It’s silly to think the draft goes down in order of ceiling. Probability is a HUGE consideration. Slade was known to have HUGE off-field issues. Dude broke into a house in a drunken stoupper. He had MAJOR red flags.

                    • Gonzo

                      We disagree. Plain and simple. It’s silly to argue this because maybe Slade’s girlfriend thought he had Josh Hamilton upside, but no one else did.

                      Seriously, your definition of upside is useless. Everyone has an insane upside to you. It’s pointless to discuss this.

                • Tremont

                  While you aren’t necessarily wrong, your definition of ceiling serves no function. We can take this to the ridiculous and say that every healthy infant has a Babe Ruth ceiling.

                  • Ted Nelson

                    You’re talking about the ceiling of infants and my definition serves no function?

                    It’s a probability distribution, nothing more. You cut off the ceiling at some point where the probability gets so low that it’s insignificant. Slade definitely had the talent to become a top 20 player for a 5 year peak and a top 10 player for a 3 year peak. He had the upside of a 5 tool CF. Dude has battled alcoholism and serious shoulder problems during his pro career. What we’ve seen is far from what his initial ceiling was.

                    • Gonzo

                      What is that point where the probability gets so low that it’s insignificant? At least to you.

        • Ted Nelson

          Bright future and arguably the best offensive player in baseball over a 3 or more season period are not the same. Slade could be a perrennial All-Star and not be particularly close to Hamilton.

          • yooboo

            It is my mistake to mislead anyone. I mean Josh Hamilton’s path to MLB success. It is not necessary to match up Hamilton’s rare numbers but having at least MLB success.

            Odds on him ought be good.

            • Gonzo

              Well, you have to define MLB success. To me, having a player that you drafted and developed just reach the majors is a success.

              • yooboo

                Starting caliber with solid contribution.

                • Gonzo

                  I’d say the odds are against it. He’s lost so much time. Maybe in a second tier division he’d have a better shot.

                  You have to remember, in every farm system (the entire farm system!) there are very, very few solid regular position players or better.

  • NYCSPORTZFAN

    Ramon Flores kinda reminds me of a poor mans Shin-Soo Choo..

    • Josh

      At this point Shin-Soo Choo is a poor mans Shin-Soo Choo.

    • yooboo

      It is all right as long as we still have Mason Williams at CF.

      I am kind of disappointed that Austin Aune will be groomed as 2B.

      • pat

        Where does it say Aune will be a 2B?

        • yooboo

          One of Yankees sites, I dont remember which one. I googled too much for 2012 draftees.

          I thought Yanks play Aune at SS and DH just because he has never played OF as Yanks would bring him into OF during 3 developing seasons. One site said he would start 2B not OF as Yanks declared him for draft.

          If Yanks actually don’t plan to put Aune at CF then I hope he stays SS. SS or 2B, either way Mason Williams is my only CF option until further notice on the Aune plan.

  • NYCSPORTZFAN

    Wheres David Adams at?

  • tyrone sharpton

    PJ Plittere? Where’s he? Other than that clear disregard, great list

    • pat

      He’s coaching somewhere. SI maybe.

  • Brian S.

    Surprised to see Ramirez, Tracy, DePaula not make the list but it is a testament to the depth of the organization.

    • Brian S.

      Oh, and Anderson Feliz. He’s also a huge sleeper in my opinion.

    • Voice of Reason

      Depth be damned, I am baffled by the exclusion of Jose Ramirez. And wasn’t De Paula just like 6th or something in the pre-draft top 30? I can’t imagine that the fact of his assignment to the DSL (where’s he’s predictably been really good) could’ve made him fall that far in a couple months.

      • Voice of Reason

        My bad! Missed the explanation.

        Anyway, I don’t think including DePaula on the list is necessarily jumping the gun more any more than including Hensley. And the mere fact that here’s in the DSL, while I guess not good for any number of (possibly mysterious) reasons shouldn’t nullify whatever the reasoning for placing him 5th before had been. So I’d have put him on the list somewhere, but whatevs.

  • JoseCampos

    Campos at 5, an almost 20 year old in Sally League with severe elbow injury is ranked that high?

    • pat

      Almost 20 means he’s 19 and was mowing people down. Great FB and feel for offspeed stuff on a big frame. He’s legit.

    • 28 this year

      Jose Campos, to me, is like Michael Pineda just a couple years younger. He’s got tremendous potential.

  • http://riveraveblues.com Benjamin Kabak

    Cito Culver, first-round draft pick. Ouch.

  • http://www.yankeeanalysts.com Domenic

    I have only been able to take in a handful of games thus far this season, but I don’t think Culver’s BB% is entirely a reflection of his plate discipline. It often seems as if he’s simply hesitant to swing, for whatever reason, and for that he ends up taking quite a few walks, while striking out looking at an above-average rate. I don’t have the numbers handy, but I do recall seeing that he struck out looking at something like 150% of the league-rate. With below-average hit and power tools, maybe he recognizes his best shot at contributing is to walk and run wild on the basepaths? Though, his base-running is decidedly ‘meh,’ as well.

    Ugh.

    • Voice of Reason

      I get the feeling you might be calling it “hesitance” because he sucks in general. If he had the same tendencies but actually hit the ball with authority, I’m sure his discipline would be lauded.

      If you’re a crappy hitter with no power, taking a ton of pitches so you can walk really is an intelligent thing to do. He deserves a little credit there at least.