Oct
23

The five biggest hits of the 2012 season

By

(Al Bello/Getty)

For a team whose season will be defined by failures with runners in scoring position, the Yankees sure did seem to have a lot of enormous hits along the way. Especially late in the season too — September and October featured all sorts of memorable hits that injected new life into a team that was fighting tooth and nail for the division title down the stretch.

With some help from win probability added, or WPA, we’re going to take a look at New York’s five biggest hits of this season. If you’re not familiar with WPA, I highly recommend Joe’s primer. Long story short, it tells you how much an event — a hit, strikeout, walk, error, anything in baseball — increases or decreases a team’s chances of winning using historical data. For example, if the Yankees have a 50% chance of winning when I step to the plate and hit a walk-off homer (thus giving them a 100% chance of winning), I get credit for the +50% (0r +0.50 WPA) while the pitcher gets charged with +50% (-0.50 WPA). Simple enough, right?

Anyway, WPA isn’t a predictive stat and it doesn’t have a ton of analytical value. It lacks context like the quality of the pitcher and hitter, the impact of the game in the standings, stuff like that. It is useful for this kind of exercise though, a fun look back at some of the biggest hits of the season. You won’t be surprised to see that one player is featured prominently in this post.

April 11th: Nick Swisher vs. Kevin Gregg (WPA graph & box score) (video)
You wouldn’t know it from his playoff performance, but Swisher had a monster season with runners in scoring position. He hit .301/.406/.589 (164 wRC+) with eleven homers in 181 plate appearances in those situations, including a game-winning homer against the Orioles just six games into the season. The Yankees had tied the game at four on a Curtis Granderson single in the seventh, and score didn’t change until Swisher took Gregg’s full count hanging slider out to right-center. Eduardo Nunez had singled earlier in the inning but was picked off first, so his teammates — Mark Teixeira doubled ahead of the homer — picked him up. That was the last extra innings game Baltimore would lose in the regular season. WPA: +0.45

(Al Bello/Getty)

October 2nd: Raul Ibanez vs. Andrew Bailey (WPA graph & box score) (video)
The Yankees and Orioles were locked in a tight division race down the stretch, and a loss by New York in Game 161 would have had the two clubs tied atop the AL East heading into the final day of the regular season. The Red Sox took a two-run lead in the first inning off David Phelps and tacked on an insurance run with a solo homer in the ninth, so the Yankees had three outs to score two runs in the bottom of the inning. Andrew Bailey was on the mound to face Granderson, who only batted in the ninth inning because Brett Gardner got caught stealing to end the eighth. Curtis singled to right to lead things off, then Ibanez came off the bench to pinch-hit for Nunez. Bailey caught way too much of the plate with a 1-2 fastball, a pitch Raul hooked into the right field seats for a game-tying two-run homer. He went on to win the game with a walk-off ground ball single in the 12th inning — a hit that preserved the team’s one-game lead in the standings — but only the dinger cracks our list. WPA: +0.45

September 22nd: Ibanez vs. Pat Neshek (WPA graph & box score) (video)
A little less than two weeks prior to his heroics against the Red Sox, Ibanez came up huge in a big extra innings comeback against the Athletics. The two clubs were deadlocked at five after seven innings and stayed that way until the 13th, when Oakland unloaded on Freddy Garcia and Justin Thomas for three homers and four total runs. The Yankees were not going down without a fight though, as the first three hitters in the bottom of the inning singled to load the bases with no outs. The first run scored on a wild pitch and the second on a Nunez sacrifice fly, but it was Ibanez who did the honors of tying things up. Neshek, a right-handed submariner, left a 3-1 sinker right out over the plate, which Ibanez clubbed halfway up the second deck in right for another game-tying two-run homer, his second dinger of the game. The Yankees won the game on a walk-off error an inning later, which was all made possible by what was essentially the start of Raul turning into Mr. Big Hit down the stretch. It was the team’s biggest hit during the regular season. WPA: +0.46

October 10th: Ibanez vs. Jim Johnson (WPA graph & box score) (video)
Now we’re venturing into the postseason. The Yankees and Orioles couldn’t settle their differences during the regular season, so their season-long battle for AL East supremacy spilled over into the ALDS. The series was knotted at one and New York was on the verge of falling into a 2-1 hole in the ninth inning of Game Three. Baltimore had been nursing a 2-1 lead since the fifth inning and they had their All-Star closer on the mound with two outs to go, but Joe Girardi elected to remove Alex Rodriguez from the game to get the platoon matchup with Ibanez. Johnson left a 1-0 sinker up in the zone, right in Raul’s swing path, and he hammered it out to right-center for a game-tying solo blast. The pinch-hit worked to perfection, and a few innings later Ibanez won the game with a walk-solo homer into the second deck off lefty Brian Matusz. The first homer was the biggest though, bringing the Yankees from the brink of a loss to a tied ballgame. WPA: +0.47

(Bruce Bennett/Getty)

October 13th: Ibanez vs. Jose Valverde (WPA graph & box score) (video)
Yeah, that’s right, Ibanez again. He really turned into Mr. Big Hit in the final few weeks of the season, and his most impactful hit of the year also happened to be one of his last. The Yankees had been stymied by the Tigers’ pitching staff in Game One of the ALCS, and they were down four runs heading into the ninth. Valverde had been very hittable in recent weeks, and he let New York get on the board with an Ichiro Suzuki two-run homer with one out in the bottom of the inning. Robinson Cano followed with a strikeout for the second out, but Teixeira worked a tough eight-pitch walk to bring the tying run to the plate. Ibanez wasted no time against Valverde, sabotaging a hanging 0-1 splitter for yet another game-tying two-run homer to right. There was nothing to be said at this point, Raul had rendered everyone speechless. He had been giving the Yankees new life time after time down the stretch, and he did so again in the ALCS opener. Just amazing. WPA: +0.49

* * *

The Yankees had four other hits register at +.40 WPA or higher this season (links go to video): Derek Jeter‘s solo homer off Casey Janssen in late-August (+0.44), Ibanez’s three-run homer off Felix Hernandez in early-May (+0.43), Jayson Nix‘s three-run double off Shawn Kelley in late-July (+0.42), and Teixeira’s two-run homer off Vicente Padilla in late-July (+0.41). As you’ve probably noticed, the biggest WPA swings occur when a hit turns a deficit into a tie game (or a lead), which is why homers that break a tie — Russell Martin vs. Johnson in ALDS Game One or Ibanez vs. Matusz in ALDS Game Three — usually only register in the +.35-ish range. Swisher’s homer off Gregg scored higher because it gave the team a two-run lead, not just one like Martin’s off Johnson.

Subjectively speaking, I think the Ibanez homer off Johnson in Game Three of the ALDS was the biggest hit of the season. The homer off Valverde was crazy clutch, but the Yankees went on to lose the game and that took some of the shine off it. All Raul did was delay the inevitable. That game-tying homer against the Orioles was something to behold though, and it stands out even more because Ibanez ended the game with another homer a few innings later. That’s just my opinion though, you’re welcome to feel that another hit was the biggest of the season.

Categories : Offense
  • Tcmiller30

    So what you’re saying is Ibanez had some big hits for us this season??

    Haha that’s actually pretty impressive. I wouldn’t have guessed that he totally dominated the list like that.

    • MannyGeee Machete

      who coulda figured it in April. Try as you might, Suzyn….

      #YCPBB

  • JohnC

    Ibanez certainly did enough to justify the Yanks bringing him back for another year. He played alot more than expected dure to Gardner’s injury. If he plays the role originally inteded for him next year, he should still be quite a weapon off the bench and as lefty DH

  • Dewayne Wise

    Ahem!

    • MannyGeee Machete

      no WPA for bunts and stolen bases. WPA only counts for homers and old guys… sorry

      • Robinson Tilapia (endorsing the SF Giants for WS Champs)

        My model also purposely weighs journeyman hits less than True Yankee bunts.

        Love,
        Personal Axisa statistician Nate Silver

  • MannyGeee Machete

    Also, how would WPA grade A-Rods hitting on the bikini model?

    sorry, couldn’t resist being a dick here.

  • http://www.twitter.com/_swarlesbarkley Drew

    Yay Ibanez. Boo everyone else.

  • Robinson Tilapia (endorsing the SF Giants for WS Champs)

    “You wouldn’t know it from his playoff performance, but Swisher had a monster season with runners in scoring position.”

    How many heads exploded, “Halloween III” style, from reading that sentence?

    • Nick Swisher

      :) :) :) :) :) :) :D :D :D

      :P

      • jjyank

        Not as many as this one.

  • cr1

    Ibanez was a pleasure to watch not only because of his heroics but because of his joy and his unfailing tact and generosity when interviewed.

    I read somewhere that players had voted him second best teammate in baseball (behind Jim Thome).

    • Robinson Tilapia (endorsing the SF Giants for WS Champs)

      +1. He was great.

      I think I’d look for whoever can fill that role best in 2013, rather than just bringing him back, but I don’t think we’ll be forgetting his one season in pinstripes anytime soon.

    • gc

      I heard he wasn’t trying to do too much.

  • Robinson Tilapia (endorsing the SF Giants for WS Champs)

    FWIW, Ibanez versus Johnson was the biggest hit of the season, to me. Regular season hits are starting to become a major blur at this point.

    Yet, somehow, I still remember IBB’ing Sean Rodriguez during the first game of the season. I need to start letting go of that.

    • MannyGeee Machete

      step away… we are roughly 175 days from opening day 2013 where Girardi will make another call to drown out that IBB.

  • 0 for infinity and beyond

    Pretty cool when every hit Ibanez had this season makes the list! That right there is Clutchie VonCluthenstein, Clutch McGhee, Clutcher McClutcherston.

    • Robinson Tilapia (endorsing the SF Giants for WS Champs)

      Clutch McGhee was traded for Bob Sykes in the 80′s.

      Gene Michael failed.

      • 0 for infinity and beyond

        That’s okay. Yankee prospects only turn in to superstars after they are traded. Jesus Montero will hit no less and 85 homeruns next year and bat 750 for the year.

        • Robinson Tilapia (endorsing the SF Giants for WS Champs)

          Except for that Jeter guy and that Pettitte guy and that Cano guy and…

          • 0 for infinity and beyond

            Sarcasm…

    • vin

      “Clutchie” would have been the perfect nickname for Raul. Girardi blew it!

      • 0 for infinity and beyond

        I said it in a post a few days back. No one on this team has a good nickname. That is what this team is lacking along with hitting, youth, hustle and grit.

        • vicki

          there are no more good nicknames in baseball period. last good one was big unit.

          where have you gone, joltin’ joe dimaggio?

  • I am not the droids you’re looking for…(I believe that children are our future)

    Yeah when most of the biggest hits of the year come from a platoon/bench guy pretty much lots has gone wrong.

    • Robinson Tilapia (endorsing the SF Giants for WS Champs)

      Not necessarily true, but I get the sentiment.

      • jjyank

        Yeah, he did have 425 PA. That’s a bit more than a platoon/bench guy. He had to play an awful lot more than anticipated.

        • Robinson Tilapia (endorsing the SF Giants for WS Champs)

          I also think that you remember the “unlikely” hit more than you remember the hit from the guy who’s “supposed” to get the hit.

    • Mister D

      Or it means a lot went right in terms of Girardi choosing PHs.

  • Johnny Damon

    I wouldn’t have even let anyone else show up on the list with my clutchness!

  • vin

    3 things…

    I am proud to say I was at the most clutchiest hit of the season. The stadium was absolutely dead in game 1 of the ALCS (my first ever game at YS3, so I can’t compare it to anything other games there). It was only after that homerun that I felt I was at a playoff game.

    You say WPA measures events… I assume that means it doesn’t calculate each individual pitch. Would be interesting to see that.

    Finally, I really can’t wait to see the “biggest games” of the 2012 season. I have to think ALDS game 3 would be number 1.

    • Rocky Road Redemption

      I think you mean “biggest wins”. It’s kind of unfair to count the playoffs in that stat because any playoff win in an elimination game automatically jumps to biggest.

  • NYYROC

    My favorite play/(non-play) was Wise’s “catch” in the stands when he didn’t have the ball. The ump never checked. Replay showed fan bending down, picking up ball and holding it up proudly!! ha ha!

  • Rocky Road Redemption

    Ugggggh, please stop reminding me of game 1 of the ALCS. That loss hurt so much. It still pains me to think about it. At least give me an offseason to get over that one. One of the worst losses I can remember that wasn’t an elimination game. Maybe THE worst, that was horrible.

  • Rocky Road Redemption

    I’m surprised A-Rod’s game tying eighth inning grand slam didn’t make this list.

    Man, the Yankees really have had some epic comebacks this year.

  • rick

    Swisher and big hit just don’t go together.

  • Reuben Sierra’s Chains

    Raul So Cool!

  • vicki

    i won’t argue with wpa but the teix homerun on padilla was so fucking satisfying.