Boras expects Cano to play out 2013 before signing a new contract

Preliminary 2013 Yankees ZiPS Projections
Open Thread: Joe DiMaggio on a moped

At the GM Meetings this week, Scott Boras told Dan Barbarisi and Joel Sherman that he speaks to Randy Levine and Brian Cashman several times a week and that the two sides will continue to discuss a contract extension for Robinson Cano. He expects Cano to play out the final year of his contract in 2013 before signing a new deal, however.

Cano, 30, is reportedly seeking ten years at “top-of-the-market dollars” with his next contract. Sherman hears that Robbie won’t take any kind of hometown discount after taking one with the four-year, $30M deal he signed prior to 2008. That contract has since swelled to six years and $57M thanks to the two club options that have since been exercised. Given the 2014 payroll plan, I find this whole situation to be both fascinating and terrifying.

Preliminary 2013 Yankees ZiPS Projections
Open Thread: Joe DiMaggio on a moped
  • Countryclub

    It seems pretty clear he’s not going to take less than 8 years. And since I’d hate to see the yanks give him 8-10 years when he’s 31, I’m all for them trading him

    • Winter

      The problem with trading him is he’s essentially a 1-year rental at this point. If you were to trade Cano, you would have to get back enough to compensate for the long-term production you’re losing. I find it hard to see anyone giving up enough for only 1 year of Cano to make it worth it.

      • Countryclub

        I think they could get one A level, ready for the majors, prospect and probably a couple B level guys too. If the main guy in the package is a young pitcher or OFer, I’d make the deal.

        • Jack P

          There is no way they would get all of that.

          • Laz

            It’s possible. Cano is an elite talent at 2B. Sure it is a 1 year rental, but in all honesty how often do players like that come on to the market?

            He is better than Upton, and plays a more premium position.

            • Bavarian Yankee

              true. Look what Seattle got for Lee a few years ago and he was a 2 month rental. You always get top prospects for elite players. It’s not crazy to think that you can get 3, maybe even 4 top 100 prospects for a full year of Cano.

              btw: if I had to guess today where Cano will play in 2014, I’d say it’s 70% Dodgers, 25% Yankees, 5% somewhere else. Giving Cano anything more than 5/125 would be nuts but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dodgers offer something like 8/200. Trading Cano would make sense long term but the Yanks can’t trade him if they wanna contend in 2013.

  • stuart a

    Only a delusional moron would give a 30 + year old Cano a 10 year deal. let the hack walk after this year, he is a very good player but far from a superstar…

    the contract requests I have been reading for the anibal sanchez’s of the world and grienke are insane……5 or 6 years at $90 mill for Sanchez is standard insanity and ditto for Grienke. When Greinke carries a team to the playoffs talk to me, I will not hold my breath…..

    • Need Pitching & Hitting

      the return of the ellipses……

    • Winter

      “Far from a superstar…”

      Over the last four seasons (2009-2012), Cano has hit .314/.365/.534 with an average yearly WAR of 6.3 (including 7.8 WAR in 2010 and 8.2 WAR (!) in 2012). He’s been an All-Star three of those four years, and received MVP voting in each year (assuming he’ll receive votes this year, when he’s likely to finish 3rd). He also finished 3rd in MVP voting in 2010 and 6th in 2012. Over that same 4 year period, Cano has won two Gold Gloves and three Silver Sluggers. And this counts for less since it was a long time ago, but he also was an All-Star and Silver Slugger (and received MVP votes) in 2006 and finished 2nd for ROY in 2005.

      Pray tell, what is your definition of a superstar?

      • Need Pitching & Hitting

        ike davis…..

      • stuart a

        when this superstar middle of the order hitter can drive in at least 100 rbi’s talk to me. and agin the guy is 30, he is not getting any better and with his lack of plate discipline as he gets older the results are going to regress…

        carry the team in septemeber instead of april and get back to me….

        superstars are potential hall of famers, cano is not goint ot the hall, no chance..

        • Need Pitching & Hitting

          100+ rbis in 2010….2011…..
          he hit 347/418/581 in september…..
          april was his worst month……

          he’s no ike davis though……

          • Duh Innings

            The guy has never posted 30 HR and 100 RBI in a season.

            He is not as good as A-Rod when he got his first record contract or as good as Jeter when he got his 10 year $189M contract.

            History shows Hall Of Fame secondbasemen decline after age 33, Cano turns 31 next November and is not a Hall Of Famer yet.

            • Need Pitching & Hitting

              I wouldn’t give him anywhere near a 10-year contract.
              He’s definitely not on the level that ARod was.
              Just refuting the made up points stu was making.

              • Duh Innings

                So what’s all the talk about Cano getting a Jeter or A-Rod like contract? Cuz Boras thinks he’s worth it? Who cares what Boras thinks? The guy’s credibility as an agent took a big hit with A-Rod’s second contract which has all but put an end to the minimum 8 years $160M contract for a position player.

                The Angels aren’t giving Cano a huge contract, they’re already tapped out with Pujols, Weaver, Wilson, and Wells. If Texas lets go of Hamilton, why would they throw the kitchen sink at Cano? Boston has Pedroia. The rest of the AL East couldn’t afford him either. The Tigers are maxed out with Cabrera and Fielder and will have to make room for Verlander’s payday. No one else in the AL Central could afford him. The As and Ms certainly couldn’t. Where’s he going in the AL?

                If Cano signs elsewhere it’ll be with an NL team. Good, he’s out of the AL, see you in the World Series and let’s see you win one without the Yanks, Robbie.

                • Need Pitching & Hitting

                  “end to the minimum 8 years $160M contract for a position player.”

                  There were 3 $160M or higher position player contracts before ARod’s most recent (ARod, Jeter, and Manny). There have been 6 signed since then (Pujols, Votto, Fielder, Mauer, Tex, and Kemp).
                  ARod’s contract changed nothing.

                  As for the size of the contract, of course it’s Boras speak. He may not get that. He may get one team to bite (Dodgers?). Who knows?
                  If any team does give him 10 years, it’s pretty much a certainty the contract will get very ugly in the back half. It’s just a question if he’d be worth enough in his remaining good years to offset the bad years in the end. At 10 years, and given his age, I highly doubt he would be.

        • Winter

          Needs Pitching and Hitting already covered a lot, but as to plate discipline I’ll add:

          Cano doesn’t walk much, it’s true. His walk rate has, however, been increasing. He posted a BB% of 8.8% in 2012, a career high (FanGraphs calls 8.5% “Average”).

          Cano also doesn’t strike out much. Cano’s career worst K% is 14.1%, which is between “Above Average” (15%) and “Great” (12.5%). His career average is 11.8%, which is solidly between “Great” and “Excellent” (10%).

          So don’t fault Cano for plate discipline. He has excellent strike out numbers and league average walk numbers, meaning he is very very good at making contact. I’ll take that any day of the week.

          • LK

            I don’t really think Cano’s low strikeout rate speaks to good plate discipline. Cano swings at a lot of pitches out of the strike zone; he also makes contact with a lot of pitches out of the strike zone, which means he has a low strikeout rate.

            He has walked a fair amount the past few years, which I think results from the fact that he’s really good (which gives him his share of intentional walks) and pitchers don’t throw him very many strikes (partially because they know he’ll still swing a lot of the time). However, he doesn’t have good plate discipline. He’s still really good, but we don’t have to cover up his flaws.

            All else being equal, it’s better to have good plate discipline, but I’ve never seen any study that shows that really good players with bad plate discipline decline more quickly. I’ve heard lots of people say it, and I can see why it would make sense, but I’d want to see actual data on it before I make that assumption. What I have seen is pretty solid evidence that second basemen tend to decline very quickly. I would be very wary about giving Cano a long term contract if they’re going to stick to the budget. That said, I think they can’t actually stick to the budget anyway, so I’m hopeful they realize that in time to sign him.

            /end treatise

        • hogsmog

          Cano being a superstar and the Yankees signing him for ten years are two different things entirely.

          Is Cano a superstar? Yes. I think three more good seasons (2009- or 2011ish), and he’s got a strong case for the Hall. If he wins an MVP, I’d put money on it.

          Should the Yankees sign him for 8-10? Fuck no.

      • Hitman 23

        Hey Winter,

        Robinson Cano is an excellent player, you will not get an argument from me on that. He will not finish third this year in MVP voting. It will end up being Cabrera, Trout and Hamilton. I would much rather Trout and Cabrera over Hamilton. Also, have YOU not learned your lesson in handing out 10 year and 250 million dollar contracts. I’m sorry but Cano is not in the same league as Trout and Cabrera. I am quite sure I could think of a dozen other players I would rather have than Cano. If he is looking for that type of contract it’s time to say goodbye and let some other team make the mistake and give him the 10 year deal he seeks. You rambling about silver slugger awards and gold gloves is silly. The argument isn’t whether Cano is an excellent player, the argument is whether he is worth a 10 year deal WHICH HE IS NOT.

        • Need Pitching & Hitting

          Read the whole thread. The debate was whether Cano qualifies as a superstar. Silver Sluggers and Gold Gloves have some merit in that discussion. Nobody in the thread said he is worth a 10 year deal. Who advocated giving Cano 10/250? Other than maybe his agent, nobody.

          • Hitman 23

            There are a few people in the responses that believe the Yanks should give him what he wants, which is a ten year deal. Cano is a superstar second baseman comparatively to the other second basemen in the league. When comparing him to the superstars who will hit 40 hrs and drive in well over 100 rbi,s, cano is not in that class

      • dalelama

        Someone who produces when it matters…the post season. How are Robbie’s post season stats? Or did you conveniently overlook those while you slobbered over him?

    • Andrew 518

      By alluding to the potential deals for Sanchez and Grienke aren’t you disproving your own point?

      Who do they replace Cano with?

      As the market stands virtually every FA is getting overpaid. As the classes get weaker the higher end players will get more, just simple supply and demand.

      Bottom line is the Yankees WILL pay SOMEONE with a top of the market deal, in my opinion, might as well make it Cano.

      Personally I was dissapointed with Cano’s season, but there is little denying that he is a superstar or at least the best hitter on the Yankees which is pretty close to superstar status. It’s too early to think HOF but remember that he isn’t a CF or 1B, with any consitancy his numbers are pretty impresive for 2B. I would balk at 10 years, but despite my hesitation for long deals in 7 or 8 years after A-Rod, Jeter, Tex, Grand, etc are gone it might not be as much as an albatros.

  • Nick_BD

    I know I’m in the minority I’d see what we could get for him now. Sound stupid trading the best hitter but no chance he signs a deal before end of the season. Cano is hitting free agency even if the Yankees offer 8 + years. Even if the Yankees didn’t need to hit this 189m and we could spend what we want I wouldn’t go over 6 years for Cano at age 30.

    • Countryclub

      I agree. I hope they’re learning their lesson with Arod. You don’t give 30+ yr olds 8-10 yr deals.

    • Need Pitching & Hitting

      With the possibility of $189M impending for 2014 (and maybe 2015 as well), along with the aging of key players, 2013 may be the best chance to win a WS for a while. I’d rather they go for it this year.
      The only scenario where I think it might make sense to trade Cano would be if they knew they could flip a package of some of the Cano return and others to get another potential cornerstone player (Upton?). Otherwise, there is a strong chance one year of Cano + a draft pick would be worth more than the likely trade return.

      • Jack P

        Ummm why would we be limited to 189 million in 2015? The cap is basically reset for about 4 years I believe, everyone has said that the purse strings will loosen significantly after 2014.

        • Need Pitching & Hitting

          I’ve seen some reports that say the goal is to extend the $189M budget to 2015 as well.
          The tax rate resets after just one year, so there would be lower rates for the next few years (reduced to 17.5% for 2015, then 30% in 2016, and if no changes are made in the next CBA, 40% in 2017 before going back to 50% for 2018).

          The driving force to get under for both 2014 and 2015 would be to completely reset their market disqualification revenue sharing rebate tier. If they go under only for 2014, they’d get their full share of their rebate in 2014, followed by a 50% share in 2015, a 25% share in 2016, and then no more rebates afterward unless the rules change in the next CBA or they go under the threshold again.
          If they get under the threshold for both 2014 and 2015, they’d get their full rebate shares in 2014, 2015, and 2016. Then if the program continues unchanged in the next CBA, they’d get a 75% share in 2017, 50% in 2018, and 25% in 2019.

          My understanding is that they’d like to get under at least in 2014 to reset the luxury tax rate and get some of the possible market disqualification program rebates, but would prefer to get under in both years to maximize the rebates.

          • Need Pitching & Hitting

            All that said, I’m still skeptical that they will be under the threshold for 2014.

      • dalelama

        Upton blows….

  • sevrox

    Trade him, if possible. Like to see David Adams get a shot at 2nd. Adams minor league stats .295/.378/.448 for 5 seasons. Cano minor league stats .278/.331/.425 in 6 seasons.

    Why the phuck not?

    • Preston

      Age versus level is important. Cano was in the Major Leagues at 22, David Adams is 25 and hasn’t reached AAA. It doesn’t mean he can’t be a serviceable player, but when you’re 25 beating up on AA kids your stats are pretty irrelevant.

  • ultimate913

    TRAID. No, seriously. If even a decent package is offered, take it. I have no problem watching Adams and/or Joseph at 2B considering the alternative is paying 21+ per year to Cano until he’s about 40.

    • Need Pitching & Hitting

      Trying to win with Cano next season and then taking a draft pick is also a viable alternative.
      The package would have to be more than just “decent” to be worth trading him.

    • Jack P

      Quick question to you and everyone else saying to trade him next year. What if Cano’s production is the difference between us making the playoffs next year, would you still trade him? Some food for thought.

      • dalelama

        If you don’t win the WS going to the playoffs doesn’t matter.

  • William

    How about to the dodgers? Zach Lee, Joc Pederson, Chris Reed, Matt magill. They can re sign him, let them give him that 200 million dollar deal.

  • Duh Innings

    How are Cano’s best days ahead of him?

    He has never had a breakout season which to me is a 1998-99 Jeter or A-Rod MVP season.

    Four years at $20M a year, take it or leave it.

    The Yanks cannot have yet another guy locked up into his late thirites, see A-Rod and Teixiera.

    • WhittakerWalt

      Cano is a better hitter and defender than Jeter. I wonder what standards you’re using.

  • Travis L.

    I think I’d rather get a package for him now, rather than take the gamble on the compensation pick. I’d like to get a known OF or SP than pick what could be a draft pick that turns out to be a dud. I like Cano, but we arent signing him long term.

  • Chad Curtis

    The solution is obvious: You give him the ten-year contract and, when he seems to start to decline, you shoot him.

    Everyone, even stuart and Duh Innings, wins.

    • Duh Innings

      Shut up.

      • Robinson Tilapia (IS Nate Silver)

        Fall on something sharp, pointy, and electrified.

    • Robinson Tilapia (IS Nate Silver)

      Fake screenname fail.

  • OldYanksFan

    This is always one crazy GM to ruin things, but I can’t see Robbie getting 10 years. Even 8 seems a stretch.

    Would you offer him $7/$170m?

    • Kvothe

      No. Going beyond 5 or 6 is unwise.

      And this is unrelated, but the idea that Cano gave a “hometown discount” with his first contract is silly. Ugh.

    • Andrew 518

      I would…I think most would be in agreement that it’s not the $$$ that is the issue, it would be the years.

      easy when it’s not your money of course. I might even go 7/$180m

  • endlessjose

    If we trade Cano and pay for he’s whole year and give the other team a contract window than maybe we can get a good pitcher from a stacked pitching team with no hitters. Like the Mariners who might be willing to trade a guy like LHP James Paxton as they have two mega pitchers ahead of him.

    I know it’s crazy but the Mariners threw Jose Campos to us as freebie.They might be dumb enough as that gives Felix Hernadez a reason to stay.

    • Andrew 518

      It is crazy.
      Pay Cano to play for the M’s next year in return for a prospect?

      We’re not trying to unload an unwanted contract, this is a top five MVP guy.

      I would hesitate to call Campos a freebie considering neither pitcher in that deal is pitching.

  • Frank

    The Yankees have to trade him now if they want to avoid the same mess they got themselves into with the arod contract. The mariners need offense….Taijuan walker sounds good.

  • Mike HC

    “fascinating and terrifying” … definitely a good way to put it.

    I think the Yanks end up signing him after a, probably public, heated contract negotiation and seeking out offers from other teams.

  • Kvothe

    Trade him to the Mariners for Montero, heh.

  • josh0909

    Trade Cano to the Mariners for Paxton, Ackley, and Gutierrez. Or they could trade him to the Cardinals for Rosenthal, Craig, and a top prospect.

  • Scheister

    Since the team acquiring Cano wouldn’t be able to offer arb if he was acquired mid season, a Saltalamacchia, Andrus, Feliz, Harrison and Beau Jones type haul would appear unlikely, if he was traded mid-season, but if Texas can get that for 1.5 yrs of Tex, a team like the Dodgers, Angels, Miami or somebody may overpay in prospects if they feel Cano would put them over the top, during the off season. I’d be down for trading Robbie if Cash could fleece some other GM.

  • Billion$Bullpen

    I know I may be the ONLY guy in the “room” that would be ok with us punting this year, but I would trade Cano. I am not a fan of the guy personally. I do not like his lack of hustle and some of his hot dog ways. I do like the huge production and generally very good to great glove work.

    We will not anytime in the near future be able to replace Cano. But Cano himself in the next 6 to 10 years will not be able to replace what he has meant to this time.

    I am also a big fan of Granderson, I was a fan before we got him. I still see what we could get for him now.

    I am also OK letting all 3 guys that declined our $13.3 go and grab the picks. Take the money saved and use it all on overpaying guys on one year deals and if any of them are great this year give them the same deal and at worst we keep netting picks.

    At some point we need to rebuild. With this method we still have some sort of shot of fielding a good team but build our team through trades and the draft.

    • Too Many Homers

      Absolutely agree. I’d trade Cano now and take the best deal. They’re not giving him that contract(unless Levine takes over) and can’t get as good a package at trade deadline. The yanks need to use Cano as an example for future dealings. I’d also pass on the free agents and take all 3 comp picks. Kuroda was offered a deal at his value and declined. He’s not worth more than 13.3 so he can walk

      • Need Pitching & Hitting

        He was definitely worth more than $13.3 this season. There is certainly a chance he will be next year as well.

        Isn’t the point of all of this to try to win?
        Trading Cano and not signing Kuroda makes that much less likely.

  • chuck

    Unless something great comes along in a trade I dont see the point. He is a streaky hitter but hes a damn good one. If you trade him it may be rough to resign him and maybe he doesnt get more than 5 or 6 year offers.

  • Frank

    Cano is better than any player we could possibly get back in trade, but they just can’t give him 10 years and in all likelihood someone will. So you either get another season out of him and a draft pick or you trade him now. Without cano and swisher the lineup gets really thin though. And since they don’t seem to be willing to hand out any long term contracts 2013 and 2014 would likely be lost years.

  • Phil

    How about a trade to the Cards for shelby miller, Matt carpenter and Kolten wong?

  • hal54

    Let him jog down to first for somebody else

  • There’s the Door

    First of all, he didn’t give a “hometown discount” on his last contract, he and his agent made a business decision in which they traded some financial upside for abundant financial security.

    Second, before I give him any kind of contract, I’d like to see him run out a ground ball.

  • Kevin Ocala, Fl

    If Cashman doesn’t trade Cano and maybe Granderson I’ll be both amazed and horrified about the team going forward. This is the year that Cashman needs to show he has the balls, aka, “The Right Stuff”. Otherwise the Yanks can look forward to 4-5 years of sucking….

    • Jerry

      Agreed. Years Cano is looking for is scary. Even though he would be a 1 year rental the Yanks would get a TON back for him.

  • Phil

    if they let Kuroda go they have the 29th/36th/37th and 38th picks in the 2013 mlb draft.

    THen they trade cano to the cards for shelby miller(SP) /Matt Carpenter(1st/3rd/dh) and David Descalso (2nd base).

  • Frank Castle

    I don’t think anyone will give him a 10yr 200m+ contract. Hopefully GM’s have seen the error of there ways( probably not). But, if 6-8yrs at 20-21per does the trick, I can live with it. He plays almost everyday and is the best offensive/ top 3 defensive second basemen in the league. I know he can be lackadaisical and won’t be in his prime forever. With that being said,thYankees are going to pay someone, I think it should be Robinson Cano

  • Frank Castle

    I’m not sure if anyone will give Cano a 10yr 200m+ contract. Hopefully GM’s have seen the error of there ways( probably not). But, if 6-8yrs at 20-22per does the trick, I can live with it.

  • Rich in NJ

    I love Cano, but getting draft picks for him does’t cut it. Trade him now if he won’t sign a reasonable deal.

  • gi

    4 yrs – 75- 80 million with a player option for the 5th year

    • RetroRob

      …he’s not signing a four-year contract for $18-20M. You’re living in 2002.

  • dalelama

    I would go $22.5M for 5 with a mutual option for $17.5M for year #6.

  • Hoss

    Get one year of (his version of) hustle out of Cano (2013) and let him test the market. Even if he matches/exceeds his best year, teams are not going to give a 31-year old 2B a 10 year $200+ million deal. At best for Boras, the Dodgers would be bidding against themselves.

    Else, we could use extortion: Threaten to trade him to KC for Billy Butler. Boras’ negotiating position would change a bit.

  • Samuel

    With those demands for a new contract, if the Yankees are faltering during the 2013 season, the boo birds will be out in force every time Robbie takes the collar.

    And then he is as good as gone.

    Bye Bye Robbie.