Fan Confidence Poll: December 17th, 2012

Sunday Night Open Thread
Scouting The Trade Market: Jason Kubel

2012 Record: 95-67 (804 RS, 668 RA, 96-66 pythag. record), won AL East, swept in ALCS

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Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results
Sunday Night Open Thread
Scouting The Trade Market: Jason Kubel
  • Matt

    As currently constructed, I am at a 5. I know every season has it s twists and turns, ups and downs but I see the Yankees with an 88 win season for 2013 and that won’t get them to the playoffs.

    • Cris Pengiucci

      While 88 wins is probably on the bubble (at best) to make the playoffs, it’s not that much of a stretch to get up to 92 wins from there by filling in the remaining holes in the lineup. That should make the playoffs. I’d be higher than a 5, personally, using that rational (88 wins as currently constructed with 4+ months before the season begins).

  • Matt :: Sec110

    Last place Yankees?

    • Ted Nelson

      Based on what?

      • Matt :: Sec110

        I wasn’t serious.

  • Ted Nelson

    Is there any report saying the Yankees had interest in Wells? The two I’ve seen just said that they “discussed” him and that the Angels would have to eat almost all of his contract. Based on that it seems just as likely that the Angels approached them as vice versa.

    • Chris

      I put no stock in it. The Angels may have called the Yankees, knowing their need for a RH OF. Besides, wouldn’t a smart GM discuss anyone and anything?Most of it may be crap but the discussions can always lead somewhere else more productive.

  • Anthony

    Always get a kick out of all the no confidence votes. I’m still at a 6, Dickey trade notwithstanding .

    • Trollin’

      Well I get a good laugh out of your 6. HA HA HA HA!

    • dalelama

      Laugh all you wish, but we’ve taken over RAB and ain’t going anywhere. Get used to it Cashman apologists.

      • DC

        Wow, since when is being dumb and negative an accomplishment in life.

        • Jim Is Bored

          dalelama is actively trying to win the Troll Lifetime Achievement Award.

          He’s an asshole, but this is common knowledge around here.

          • DC

            Yeah, I’m glad he can finally admit he’s nothing more than a troll.

        • Trollin’

          Since Jersey Shore?

      • Robinson Tilapia

        So now you speak to your penis too?


        • Trollin’

          What guy can honestly say he’s never talked to his own penis. It’s when you start talking to other people’s that you should worry.

          • DC

            Dalelama named his penis Arod because it always lets him down.

            • Trollin’

              A-Rod makes millions and gets to be with beautiful women. I wish I could call my penis A-Rod!

  • Nick

    Why is everyone panicing…bullpen rivera replaces soriano, youk replaces arod who did next to nothing last yr, russel martin is gine, but .200 avg and 20 bombs isnt exactly special anyway, ichiro+gardner easily outproduce swisher on defense and basepaths alone, and the yanks have one of the deepest rotations in the league…pineada could also be back late in the season

    Im a 7 simply because of the uncertainty around jeters ankle

    • Mike HC

      I went with an 8, but agreed with all your reasoning.

    • Laz

      I agree. Youk pretty much will replace arod’s production for the first 2 months or so, but think about it, the last 4 months we will have arod/Youk as the everyday DH instead of having to go with Ibanez/Jones. That is a huge upgrade as long as they can hang in the first 2 months. Also Pineda could be a big difference. Sabathia/Kuroda/Pettitte/Hughes is still a solid rotation.

    • LK

      A lot of what you’re saying here is pretty solid. However,

      “russel martin is gine, but .200 avg and 20 bombs isnt exactly special anyway”

      If they have Stewart/Cervelli/Romine catch the whole year, we’re going to think .200 with a bunch of walks, 20 bombs, and solid D is pretty damn special by the end of the year.

      “ichiro+gardner easily outproduce swisher on defense and basepaths alone”

      Are you trying to say that Ichiro and Gardner’s baserunning and defensive value will outproduce Swisher’s entire value? Because I can’t really see that happening. If, instead, you’re saying that baserunning and defense are the only areas where they’ll outproduce Swisher, I’m totally on board as it’s pretty unlikely either of those guys will hit close to as well as Swisher. If the OF is going to be better this year, it will be because Gardner outproduces what Ibanez/Jones did and Granderson bounces back, but Swisher is a big loss.

      • MannyGeee

        Yeah, agreed. You are hard pressed to find a dozen catchers in the game over the past decade to give you 20 homers from the backstop (Posada in 2010 and Jesus Montero/Mike Napoli/Victor Martinez ‘catching’ 30-50 games a season not withstanding)

        a TRUE catcher giving you 20 HR a season? kinda special

    • Rhonda

      Thank you nick…good to hear something positive

  • Yank the Frank

    I’m still at a 7. Catcher was worrying me until I realized that Pena is still with the team and will call the games.

  • Drew

    It has been a 6 for me all off season. I don’t believe 39 year old Ichiro and whatever right handed platoon are an adequate solution for RF the next 2 years. Holes still at C and DH. Once they find replacements, my confidence numbers will change accordingly. As we all know, it doesn’t matter who wins the winter, but with the Jays making all the moves they are its hard not to be a little down on the Yankees are the moment.

    • jjyank

      Eh, regarding the Jays, those moves could just as easily blow up in their face. I’m not worried about them yet.

      • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

        They could blow up but on paper right now, they are at least as good as the Yankees.

        How it plays out on the field remains to be determined but it’s gonna be a lot harder to fatten up on Toronto like they did last year with an 11-7 record.

        •!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger

          The key phrase in that is “on paper”. How many paper champions have we seen come out and fall flat on their faces? Sure, they should be better, but let’s see them play some games first.

          • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

            Obviously all you could say in December is they look pretty good on paper but assuming every move they made isn’t going to work out is as unrealistic as assuming every move they made is going to turn out aces.

            People have been mentioning that Reyes, Johnson and Morrow are going to get hurt, Encarnacion is going to regress in a major way, Buerhle is gonna suck in the AL east, Romero will continue to be awful, Bautista won’t be the same after his wrist injury, Lawrie is a bust, etc. While some of that might come true, ALL of it isn’t going to happen.

            Right now, the Yankees have as many hole and question marks as the Jays do. I think these teams are gonna battle it out for the division.

            • Reggie C.

              Its weird..

              Reyes played 160 games last season!! The man has missed significant portions of seasons in the past, but injury history took a big step in the right direction last season. If Reyes played 150 games next season, the Jays offense will feel the boost.

              Josh Johnson started 31 games for christ’s sake. Will he keep a sub 1.3 WHIP with the move to the AL East? Probably not but he’s a better Right handed started than what the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox send out there every 5th day.

              • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

                If I were a Jays fan, I would be concerned about Reyes playing 81 games a year on Turf. I’d probably try to give him a day off per week and let him spend some time at DH to keep him healthy and I’d be happy if he played 140 games.

                I’d also be worried about Johnson getting injured though pretty much any pitcher can go down at any time. After the first month or so in the season, Johnson was very good but it’s also a lot different pitching in the NL east in a great pitchers park compared to the AL east. Same is true for Dickey.

                They are no lock to win the east but unless they are awfully unlucky, they look like they can stand toe to toe with pretty much anyone else in the AL.

              • G

                Better than Kuroda? I’d argue against that.

        • Cris Pengiucci

          Yeah, the “on paper” stuff has little meaning with what occurs on the field. Any team can either make the most of their moves (see Baltimore/Oakland last season) or fall appart completely.

          I suspect Toronto won’t be as good as they could be (I don’t really see Dickey being anything close to what he was last season and I’d be concerned about Reyes’ health). At the same time, A-Rod may not come back and be productive, Jeter could start slowly and both Youk and Ichiro are question marks. I’ll stay at a 7 based on the team’s history and my feeling that long term they’ll be in better shape due to these budgetary restraints, with the understanding that any one season in the next 3 or 4 could be pretty bad (or could produce a WS championship, although not likely).

          • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

            I don’t know what you’ve based your suspicions about Toronto on and I’m not gonna pretend to know how the season is going to play out for them other than to say they have much more talent heading into 2013 than they have had in many years.

            As for the Yankees, I think they have a run left in them for 2013 but in my mind, 2014 and likely 2015 are looking like transitions years.

        • MannyGeee
          • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

            I wonder if Eric Ortiz has retired from sports writing after that debacle.

    • steves

      I agree with you Drew. If the Yanks added Johnson, Buehrle, Dickey, Reyes (hello 3rd base Derek!) for the equivalent of what the Jays gave up it would be hard not to be very up on the Yankees at the moment. That being said even if one believes the Jays are now the division favorites the Yanks, even as presently constructed, are still a solid (but not as certain as prior years) playoff contender; this really is not a 1965 repeat in the works given the wildcard possibilities that now exist.

    • Laz

      Once arod is healthy you will have a dh of him or Youk. Just need to survive the first 2 months with a dh or Nunez/Jeter which is really workable.

    • Reggie C.

      All the Jays have done is mortgage the organization’s entire future for a window of 3 seasons. At that point, Anthopolous must have at least one WS title to show for it b/c he’ll be losing Josh Johnson and Dickey, so he needs Morrow and especially Romero to really step it up performance wise.

      On a side note … the Mets have started to put together a quality farm system.

  • http://riveraveblues I remember the CBS years!

    Asked this question before about Youk and his number. Will he get #20? Yes Yankee roster page seems to think so. That’s their prime 20, what’s yours?

    • jjyank

      No way he gets #20.

    •!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger

      He’s taking 36. Didn’t even bother to ask for 20.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        It’s a tribute to his fellow idiot, Mike Myers.

  • http://riveraveblues austinmac

    The question was for the overall future, and not just next year. With about half of the 25 man roster gone by 2014 and no money, I am not confident.

    • The Big City of Dreams

      So what is your number Mac?

    • DC

      You seriously think $189M is “no money”?

  • paulc

    Listen. I know the Yanks will always be in contention…but the whole offseason is one that pisses ya off…the whole bad taste of ARods contract–thanks Hal and cronies…makes it sucky…IMO…just my feelings. I am down with CCs, Tex’s contracts…but come on man. SP-solid crew. Would like one more vet to push..RP-I think our bullpen will be strong as always…Montgomery is gonna be good. Would love Sori back…but I get it. Catching–seriously Cash? You know a storm is brewing with him and making a deal…IF-Love the Youk pickup. Just bench depth. OF-love the D. Just get depth again. But the whole 189 number sucks. Big faith in Yanks to always be there at teh end…

    • MannyGeee

      I feel the same way about your use of ellipses, poor spelling and lack of line breaks that you do about the offseason.

      So thanks for that.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        That wasn’t the worst assessment I’ve read, though.

  • Stevis

    Georges little boy better open up the pursestrings before its too late!!
    Right now call me doom and gloom but the Yanks are no better than 3rd in the east and maybe 4th!
    Cervelli as a stating Catcher..
    My sides are hurting from laughing so hard

    • Cris Pengiucci

      Opening the purse strings is not necessarily the answer. Being smarter with the money they spend is. It’ll hurt as the current under-performing contracts expire (A-Rod, Tex), but in the long run, may produce better (or at least consistently competitve) teams in the future.

      • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

        I agree with your sentiment but it’s really easy to say they have to be smarter with money and player development. Executing it is an entirely different story.

        This regime has been running things for years and to assume all of a sudden they can flip a switch and become smarter and more efficient may not be as realistic as it sounds.

        For years, the Yankees have had major advantages with their economic clout not only signing FAs and retaining their own players but also signing international FAs and paying overslot for draft picks. Pretty much all of those advantages have been taken away now so moving forward, it’s gonna be a lot tougher going than in the past.

    • LK

      The offseason isn’t over, so where the Yankees stand in the division at this moment is pretty unimportant. That said, while things are looking worse than they usually do, I don’t think you can make a credible case that this is the 4th best team in the division.

  • Raul Ibanez AKA Tom Marvolo Riddle AKA True Yankee(TM)

    I’m currently at a 6-7 down from an 8-9 for most of last season. I love the Yankees, and I think Cashman is a good GM, but replacing Swisher, A-Rod, and Martin with Ichiro, Youkilis, and (Place shitty catcher’s name here) just isn’t a good off season IMO. I understand the budget for 2014 and w/e, and I’m not saying next season is a total wash but the moves we have made thus far in the off season just don’t feel like they’re bettering the team, in fact I would make the argument that the 2011 Yankees are a much better team than the 2012 Yankees are shaping up to be.

    • G

      The funny thing is you got the dates wrong, and at this point in the offseason before 2012 I’m sure OU would’ve said the same thing. However, I’d say the 2012 Yankees were a much better team than the 2011 team. Granted nothing went right and they had a mid-season collapse, but I’d still say they were te more talented team.

  • Dropped Third

    Even with the bs budget the Yankees will still be competitive, as long as the cash is shelled out after 2014, I remain at a 7. With a healthy year, the team still has a chance at winning 95 games. Kuroda, C.C, pettitte is a pretty good 1,2,3 (not in that order). Plus Nova Hughes Phelps and maybe Pineda is solid depth. Blue Jays look good but il want to see them win before I declare them winners. Three first round picks comming our way plus the farms building back up with some high ceiling guys moving through double A. Another good year from slade, mason, and austin and we could be sitting on 3 top 50 outfielders. Sanchez could step into catcher in a few years and campos and hensley are good lottery tickets to have. Plus Manban could still turn into somthing. Arod and Tex SUCK for what thier paid and the team is old. But a little luck the team is in decent shape considering the owners want to and can rob the fans.

  • Darren

    I know Romine hasn’t done anything in the Majors and with his injury history, it’s hard to count on him. But if he can stay healthy and even reasonably come close to his Minor league numbers, he would be a BIG UPGRADE on Martin. I’ll take Romine’s .278 BA, & .710 OPS with 25 doubles and 10 homeruns over Martin’s .200 BA and 20 HRs any day of the week at a savings of $15mm

    I think between Romine and Cervelli, we could have an exciting young catching tandem.

    • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

      In Romine’s last 2 full seasons, both in AA, he was about a league average hitter at that level with wRC+ of 98 and 104 and a .327 and .334 wOBA.

      Martin has done pretty close to that in the big leagues the last couple of years so I think it’s a pretty big reach to assume Romine will ever be a “BIG UPGRADE” on Martin.

  • dkidd

    looking forward to the most balanced and competitive a.l. east in forever

    • Raul Ibanez AKA Tom Marvolo Riddle AKA True Yankee(TM)

      It’s certainly going to be interesting…but it’s going to be a brutal season. Usually we had to dread 36 4 hour knock-out-drag-out games against Boston and against Tampa, now The Orioles are probably going to be at least .500 and the Toronto figures to at least be competitive.

      • dkidd

        i love that the season will be equally brutal for all 5 teams, including the paper-champ blue jays


  • trr

    gonna be a long couple of years, until the team is sold – then watch out!

  • MannyGeee

    So for everyone on Toronto’s dick right now, I went ahead and bookmarked this article:

    Right below it, I have bookmarked my favorite piece of fan fiction from Eric Ortiz:

    The moral being, NO DIVISION is won in December, and not rings are awarded on paper.

  • MannyGeee

    Also, -1 for ruining the Cody Ransom comeback.

    So, another week another 7. If we were looking at this being our opening day roster, I would be a little more worried. but there’s still time.

  • JFH


    We are not any better right now than we were when we struggled in the playoffs. Management’s threatening to continue to shed payroll does not give one comfort for the future either. But, I am hoping that they have some sort of long term plan, like when they decided to go after CC long before he came available, and bided their time.

  • Robinson Tilapia

    7, slightly trending downward. Going through this again in 2014, with even more roster openings, is going to be some task. That’s fr sure. Not feeling particularly negative at all as to how they’re going to field a complete, solid roster in 2013.

    Fine with Youk. Fine with Ichiro. I can haz Jason Kubel?

    • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

      I’m surprised to hear you say you’re trending downward. I thought you were the eternal optimist.

      Is all the doom and gloom talk having an effect?

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Not at all. It’s just a lot of work going into next off-season and the $189 mil does mean some restraints.

        When I mean “trending downward,” I mean that, in purely scientific terms, I rounded up from feeling somewhere in the 6.5-6.9 range.

        Remember that there’s a difference between having confidence in an organization, plus not really seeing the point behind venting and bitching about sports to a fault, and being an eternal optimist. :)

        • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

          I was kidding but isn’t venting and bitching part of what this site is all about?

          It would be pretty boring if this was one big circle jerk of people telling each other how great the Yankees are and will always be.

          • Ted Nelson

            Would be better if people could rationally discuss things, rather than whining and screaming about how they want every shiny toy.

    • Ted Nelson

      Hard to say what the roster holes will be a year from now. We don’t even know what the roster will look like this year yet.

  • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

    Red Sox signed Stephen Drew for 1 year/$9.5 million.

    Good deal for them though I was really hoping to see Iglesias bat .175 as Red Sox SS.

    • dkidd

      another good signing. sad to say, but cherington appears to be the real deal

      • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

        I didn’t really care for the Napoli and Victorino signings but Dempster was OK mainly because it’s only 2 years and I liked this one too.

      • DC

        I think it’s far too early to declare Cherington “the real deal” unless you mean he’s a real person and an actual MLB GM. His signing this year have been nothing above average and the mega deal was dumped in his lap by the Dodgers. That one didn’t take a lot of brain power to pull the trigger.

      • Ted Nelson

        Yeah, I’ve liked his off-season too.

  • Dave

    Blue Jays look too strong this year. They made too many, big smart moves and they have such a deep farm system they could afford to do so. Looks like this season will be tough since we’re getting a lot older and not making a major splash with any new deals.

  • cr1

    Oddly, I am up from a six to a seven — and I’m not sure I can explain my slight increase in optimism other than to say that this is beginning to feel like a regular NYY off-season, plowing methodically but successfully through the re-signings and keeping mum about whatever surprise(s) are still to come. It feels like a familiar process, one that normally leads to plenty of wins in the season and a place in the crap-shoot that is the off-season.