Fan Confidence Poll: December 31st, 2012

Sunday Night Open Thread
Holiday Mailbag: Rafael Soriano

2012 Record: 95-67 (804 RS, 668 RA, 96-66 pythag. record), won AL East, swept in ALCS

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results
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Sunday Night Open Thread
Holiday Mailbag: Rafael Soriano
  • MannyGeee

    Lack of Swisher still bums me out… but the BP caps were fun. Plus, Wakamatsu.

    Solid 7.

    • dalelama

      Went from 6 to 5. I interpret this as their chance to win the World Series.

  • Yank the Frank

    I’m still at a 7. Our pitching is still pretty good and I think we’ll find some bats. This looks like it’s going to be a cut and paste year as we go along. It should be fun and surprising.

  • Ryan G

    I am about an 8 for this season based on pitching depth, but about a 3 for 2014 based on free agents and our quest for 189m.

  • Blake

    6ish and holding

  • Robinson Tilapia

    TEN because I can click on the little button next to it, because it’s New Years Eve, and it’s because the first reason is the same exact logic people use to vote zero.

    In reality, still baseline 7.

  • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

    I’m an 8 for 2013 but have major doubts for 2014 and beyond so I voted a 6.

    • Cris Pengiucci

      major doubts for 2014 and beyond so I voted a 6.

      I completely understand having concerns for 2014 & even 2015, but really feel this will help the team beyond those 2 years (and 2015 could even be a good year of some of the guys from the farm come up and produce. On top of that, the team has a number of very early draft picks coming up. While I anticipate the team will not be as strong in the short term (although I have hope for the 2013 season and think the team may add pieces before the trade deadline), I do think that long term, this will help them.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        It also may not mean confidence in actual performance, but confidence in moving in the right direction.

      • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

        There are just too many variables and uncertainties at this point in regard to the roster in 2014 and 2015 for me to blindly say I have extreme confidence the Yankees will field a championship caliber team in 2014 and 2015. I don’t expect them to become the Astros or I would have voted a 1 but I’m not convinced they’re gonna be the caliber of team we’ve seen from the Yankees over the last 15 years so I voted a 6.

        Getting under the luxury tax may certainly be in the teams best interest long term even as you stated though it certainly will be a detriment in the short term but how the next crop of A and AA prospects turns out is far from a certainty and any draft picks from 2013 and forward aren’t going to help until 2017 or 2018 at the earliest.

        • Ted Nelson

          Yes, because they cannot trade for players from other orgs.

          • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

            Trades involve talent moving in both directions. There’s no guarantee any potential trades will improve the teams prospects for the future.

            • dalelama

              Excellent rebuttal of wanker.

      • Ted Nelson

        Who would have guessed going into the 2008 season that the starting 2010 OF for a 95 win team would be Gardner, Granderson, and Swisher? I just think two years is too long into the future to consider anything besides the decision makers and the base of talent they have to work with.

        • Cris Pengiucci

          And I see a good amount of talent in the minors, especially in the OF. While I’m not at a 10, I’m higher than a 6.

  • YanksFan

    I’m at my usual 9. I take the Ted Neslon approach to valuing this team as a top 6 in all of baseball. TB lost a pitcher that can’t be replaced easily. Baltimore is going to have a bitch of regression. Boston is an okay team. Toronto could be scary if everything breaks right – and when does that truly happen.

    • Jedua

      I really like your aproach.

      I think no many people notice that the blue jays are injury prone as hell

      • The Big City of Dreams

        You can say the same things about the Yankees.

        • TomH

          Shhhhh. Nelson might hear you.

        • Get Phelps Up

          But less so than some of the Blue Jays and they don’t have to play half their games on turf.

          • The Big City of Dreams

            True but look at the Yankees

            CC had surgery on his album
            Kuroda and Andy are old
            Mo coming off a surgery
            A-rod basically is the walking wounded
            Jeter coming of ankle surgery
            Gardner missed most of the season
            Tex has been on the decline and has been dealing with injuries

  • Sweet Dick Willie

    I’m at an 8, but I’m an optimist, so I can certainly understand how some people could vote a 7 or even 6, but a 1? Really?

    For a franchise that has missed the play-offs ONCE in the last 18 years, you have ZERO confidence going forward? I honestly had no idea that that level of stupidity even existed (well, outside of Washington, DC).

    • jjyank

      Hey man, I live in DC and voted a 10 :P

    • Robinson Tilapia

      Well, people do it for the same reason I purposely voted a ten: Because they can.

      I love voting a “seven” as baseline. It displays a confidence in the organization while still acknowledging some bumps ahead.

    • Jimmy

      It doesn’t mean anything that the Yankees have made the playoffs in 17 of 18 years (look up the 65-69 era Yankees). That shouldn’t be any source of confidence.

      They’ve downgraded at catcher and right field, their ace just had elbow surgery and some of their key players from last year (Jeter, Pettitte, Kuroda, etc.) are at the point where their abilities can reasonably be expected to deteriorate. The following year we will lose either Granderson or Cano with little salary to replace them. Those are the reasons I’m bearish about the next two years and voted a 6.

      • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

        This.

        I’m still very optimistic for 2013 mainly because I think the pitching staff is loaded but beyond is taking a leap of faith, IMO.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          You’ve seen the franchise move in the right direction before. Without knowing what the specifics will look like, I think it’s more likely than not that they will do their damndest to build a strong team for the long term.

          This is why Jimmy’s first couple of sentences are just dead wrong, to me at least. 17 of 18 years making the playoffs is maintaining sustained success. Any franchise that can do that has my confidence that they know what to do to retool.

          • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

            I’m not convinced the Steinbrenner boys are as committed to re-investing in the team compared to the past 15+ years. Everyone assumes this budget is a 1 or 2 year blip on the radar but I’ve seen nothing to confirm that notion.

            Also, many of the advantages the Yankees have had over the years have disappeared with the new CBA including paying over slot in the draft, international FA signing caps, harsh luxury tax penalties, etc. Add to that the influx of regional TV money all around baseball and the fact that the free agent pool is getting weaker with most good young players early FA years being bought out by clubs and I believe it all adds up to the fact that the Yankees are going to have a much tougher time staying on top of the sport year in and year out.

            I don’t expect them to go off a cliff but honestly, I think at least 2014 will be a transition year and after that, a lot will have to do with how the prospects develop and how well Pineda recovers from his surgery.

          • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

            Jimmy may have overstated the first couple of sentences but the rules that the Yankees have to operate under have changed recently (for the worse if you’re a Yankees fan)compared to the last 17 years so their superior MO over this recent era isn’t as applicable to the future as it used to be.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        “It doesn’t mean anything that the Yankees have made the playoffs in 17 of 18 years (look up the 65-69 era Yankees). That shouldn’t be any source of confidence. ”

        I can’t imagine a more incorrect statement than this.

      • TomH

        Given your argument, 6 seems too high.

  • andy from hp

    i mean, a 6 is only a little more than half confident. its gotta be a 7.

  • steves

    Don’t know how many of you still read print magazines but the most recent issue of Baseball Digest (basically the baseball equivalent of Reader’s Digest so it is not written for the more sophisticated fan but I still like it) listed Gary Sanchez as the best catching prospect in the minor leagues; they are usually not very Yankee friendly so I find that to be a nice positive sign headed for the new year so put me down for an 8!

    • MannyGeee

      Really… Gary Sanchez as the best catching prospect in the game? Interesting. The Sanchez hype has been mostly relegated to NYY from what I’ve seen, unlike the Jesus Montero Train which seemed to run rampant.

      Good for him!

      • Ted Nelson

        I think that everyone sees Gary’s tremendous potential, but there are varying levels of optimism on how likely he is to reach it. (Will he stay behind the plate? Is he a hard worker or a character problem? Will he make enough contact?)

        Baseball America ranked the kid as the 30th best prospect in all of baseball coming off a 17 year old season in short-season ball.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      This is why, in all these fantasy trade scenarios, you only see me throwing him in for the biggest fish (Upton, Stanton.) We’ve been hearing he could be the best of the MiLB catching crop since he was 17, and he’s doing little to shake that tag. AA by the end of the season? To me, you keep him in, like, 95% of trade scenarios.

      • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

        Definitely. Sanchez IMO in the prized jewel of the system since there appears to be a pretty good chance he can actually remain at catcher.

  • trr

    gonna be a long couple of years ’til the Steingrubbers finally sell

    • Ted Nelson

      Yeah, because losing is a great way to maximize the value of a franchise!

      • Cris Pengiucci

        Of course! That’s been their plan all along. Lower team salary levels, alienate the fan base thereby reducing attendance and TV viewership leading to lower advertising revenue, then sell the team when it’s value is lowest. Makes perfect sense.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          I actually very much appreciate the “please ignore me” which accompanies trr’s posts.

        • Blake

          Hey it worked for Frank McCourt!

        • I am not the droids you’re looking for…

          I saw this film. It’s called Major League.

  • Austin Aunelowitzky

    I’m a 6. If I were voting just on 2013 I’d be a 7.5.

  • jim p

    The confidence poll would give more insight if a time range was part of the question, imo. “Yankees overall future for x-time” The next year, the next 3 years, the next 5 years, whatever seems right.

    Next year, given the rest of the division, a bit better than middling. 2014, maybe ’15 too, not so much. 2017, if the kids start delivering, pretty good…

    • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

      I agree that’s why I qualified my answer to 2013 and then beyond.

      It really is hard to predict how the team will look in 2014 and beyond though you do know it will be very tough to replace Granderson, Pettitte, Kuroda and Mo on a budget with the prized prospects still about a year away and players like Jeter, Arod, Teix and Ichiro likely diminished compared to the 2012 versions.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      I’d say it’s pretty near impossible to make any sort of decent prediction as to 2017.

      There are things you probably could foresee a bit better, and I think of “redefining yourself” type of challenge that went with the core players getting older was a bit easier to predict moving into the middle of this decade. 2017, though? Other than the obvious long-term contract guys who will still be around, I find it impossible to predict who the core of this team will be. Too many variables to just throw out Williams and Slade and Sanchez and whatnot.

      I’m fine with keeping this all general and unscientific. To me, though, even looking past 2014 requires quite a bit of imagination.

  • mrdbag

    Voting a 2… stench of this team is like an old ted nelson gym sock

    • Dalek Jeter (formerly: Raul Ibanez AKA Tom Marvolo Riddle AKA True Yankee(TM))

      Yeah, if you’re smelling them directly after a work out. If you were to smell them after they showered and put on their fancy rich people cologne that costs more than my paycheck an ounce, I’m sure they smell wonderful.

    • jjyank

      Stay classy.

      • mrdbag

        Was gonna say it reeked like a jjyank pubic hair while you’re wearing jeans in the summer… but they did get kuroda back

        • Robinson Tilapia

          I thought everyone shaved in the District of Columbia.

        • Milt Toast

          I find it illuminating that you have such intimate familiarity with both Ted’s old gym socks and jj’s pubic hairs (during summer yet). You’re just a sentimental old fool, you.

    • Get Phelps Up

      From commenting guideline #2: “To that end, personal attacks and insults will not be tolerated.”

      Does this mean you can be banned now?

      • jjyank

        We can hope.

      • mrdbag

        Lighten up man

        • Get Phelps Up

          You’re one to talk.

  • Dalek Jeter (formerly: Raul Ibanez AKA Tom Marvolo Riddle AKA True Yankee(TM))

    I’m still at 7. The 2013 is a competitive team with some holes, and going forward there are a whole mess of question marks that need to be answered.

  • LarryM., Fl.

    I vote for a 6 on my confidence with the team,front office and minor leagues. The low score will remain until the team takes shape at ST. What other moves will be made? I have confidence that some surplus pitching maybe shopped to assist with a RH bat. Also have to see how Jeter and will Nunez respond by showing signs of being the SS who can fill in without choking our cookies on each play. I’m sure he’ll improve.

    • Dalek Jeter (formerly: Raul Ibanez AKA Tom Marvolo Riddle AKA True Yankee(TM))

      There is no such thing as a surplus of pitching.

      • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

        Pitching surplus is like Santa and the Easter bunny.

  • Get Phelps Up

    7.5 for 2013 which I rounded up to 8. A very solid team overall with a few holes here and there to address. A right handed bat (hopefully Morse) would bring that up to a solid 8.

  • jason

    6/2/4

    6 for the team, 2 for the hat, 4 Avg.

  • Sam

    Pitching staff is solid, but the age factor makes me nervous. Also no appreciable improvement in offense. So holding at a high 4.

  • michael

    IF the owners were to sell the franchise, what’s the likelihood that would lead to new FO execs i.e. no more Levine and Trost?

    • Robinson Tilapia

      In addition, would the borough of the Bronx continue to exist?

  • RandyLevineisthe Enemy

    I find it funny that no one in the media has the Ba**s to put the blame for the yankees lack of spending on the real culprit….Randy Levine!….

    • Milt Toast

      It’s the hair, isn’t it?

  • OldYanksFan

    I believe this will be a tough year, and not next year will be worse.
    But the reality is…. it had to end sometime.
    I believe the Yanks are building for 2016…. maybe even 2015.
    I don’t think we have winning teams this year and next, so why not save $60m to $100m, and kick ass in 2016? Start another big run?

    This is what I think Cashman and Co. are doing.
    So I am confident, because the Yanks seem to be reading the writing on the wall, and are not throwing good money after bad.

    And doing it this way is certainly not as humiliating as the way the Sox did it.