Jan
07

Fan Confidence Poll: January 7th, 2012

By

2012 Record: 95-67 (804 RS, 668 RA, 96-66 pythag. record), won AL East, swept in ALCS

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
Categories : Polls
  • Robinson Tilapia

    Baseline seven. *yawn*

  • Austin Aunelowitzky

    6.
    “They also didn’t call about Too Tall Jones.”

    • Robinson Tilapia

      Or Barbara Stanwyck. I’d imagine she’d bring intangibles and grit.

      • Austin Aunelowitzky

        I hadn’t thought of this.

  • Upstate Yanks

    Rangers paid a pretty steep price for a guy who played 20 something games last year. I wonder how much of that $$ is guaranteed?

    • CP

      It’s baseball – it’s all guaranteed (except the second year option).

      • Barry

        If only every job was so kush.

        • Austin Aunelowitzky

          If they were, it would cost $50,000 for a slice of pizza.

          • Barry

            yeah but everything is an economy of scale. Inflation is the direct reason prices today are higher than they were before(cars that once cost 1000 are now 30000). The more money in circulation the less it’s worth the more things cost. Problem is the economy of scale isn’t nearly as balanced as it once was. Where the average income in America may be ~30k the scale is thrown off by the immense amount of wealth controlled by a small fraction of the population. Ah the trappings of progress.

          • Robinson Tilapia

            You were just in midtown. It already does.

            • Austin Aunelowitzky

              Still in midtown, last day here. Thinking Soba Nippon tonight for some killer inexpensive noodles and then an Irish pub to cheer on the Irish. I have about 100 pubs to choose from…will be the toughest choice I make all day.

              • Short Porch

                Rattle N Hum near Empire State Building. They have about a gazillion beers on tap, so win or lose, its all good.

  • Hubward

    Standard 7 again. Dont see how anyone could go below 6 right now. In the long run the pay roll will still be amongst the highest and eventually even A-Rod (who I’m a big fan of despite the contract) will stop playing and they’ll be able to re-invest. In the short run its still only January and this team right now on paper is still a serious contender in the AL, they’re not the Astro’s for goodness sake. Sure you could be down on the 2014 team but I think you’d need to have pretty good tea leaves to make that call.
    A great team, not as hot as the dynasty years, but still…

    • Robinson Tilapia

      This is the most reasonable thing ever written on here.

      Either that or you’ve perfected the art of the reverse troll and are actually making fun of me, in which case great job.

      • MannyGeee

        hehe, the uber-troll by way of the reverse-end-around troll. bitchin’

        • Hubward

          I’m just not smart enough to come up with that level of scheming

          • Havok9120

            Stick around here and you’ll learn.

  • trr

    it’s well kmown Stanwyck can’t hit a curve

  • Blake

    The Rivera news has raised my vote from 6.12 to 6.23

  • MannyGeee

    At a negative 14, as a future HoF’er rots in AAA Scranton without even a look… also, “prehab”.

    baseline 7 as nothing has REALLY changed for the better or worse.

  • Twains Yankee

    Would love to see a plot of median score over time. It does seem like the mode is trending downward, but I wonder if that is a seasonal fluctuation corresponding to the winter doldrums.

    • MannyGeee

      it spikes every May/June when the Yankees go on a killing spree through the inter-league schedule.

      and then… roller coasters.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      http://riveraveblues.com/fan-confidence-poll/

      Fan confidence right now is, by far, the lowest it’s ever been in the 3+ years I’ve been doing this thing. It’s the perfect storm really. Plan to cut payroll soon, ugly playoff exit, lots of injuries and offseason surgeries, etc.

      • Andy in Sunny Daytona

        It’s amazing how spoiled this generation of Yankee fans are. Complaining about the Yankees sucking while they are still really good.

        • Mike HC

          To be fair, looking at the Yanks WS years, it looks like people who grew up in the 80’s would be uniquely and particularly unspoiled compared to every other generation of Yankese fans since the 1920’s.

          • Robinson Tilapia

            I’d agree. Those of us who grew up in the 80’s had to wait until ’96 for a champioship. I can’t say that I truly remember ’78 at all.

            • Klemy

              I do remember watching this vaguely, as a child. The 80’s killed me throughout high school.

              ’96 on has been excellent, but spoiled or not, the specter of what is to come is worrisome, because we just haven’t seen this kind of personnel decision recently. Nothing wrong with being worried and still being good.

              • Andy in Sunny Daytona

                The 80’s weren’t bad. You had Winfield, Mattingly and Rickey. The truely bad years were 89-92.

            • Austin Aunelowitzky

              My first time to Yankee Stadium was July ’78. Second time was October ’78. My sweetest World Series is unquestionably ’96 due to the unbearable drought.

          • Ted Nelson

            I think that there are a lot of commenters on here who probably grew up in the 90s or are just growing up now.

      • Blake

        The thought of seeing Kevin Youkallis’s face for 162 games (or until he gets hurt) probably decreased it at least a point on average

        • MannyGeee

          I was gonna say, 162 from YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUK sounds AWFUL optimistic.

          /practicing

        • Barry

          I think Youk will be huge for us. Maybe he’ll be our 2011 Lance Berkman.

          • Mandy Stankiewicz

            I, also, have a good feeling about Youk–He’ll be much more excited to play for NY than Berkman’s begrudging season. 6 till Tampa.

          • Havok9120

            Yeah, I’ve got a good feeling about Youk as well. Very little to back it up, and I won’t argue against anyone that says the signing has just as big a likelihood of being a disaster…but I still have a good feeling.

        • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

          I just keep telling myself to remember how much it’s going to gall Red Sox fans every time Youk does something positive as a Yankee and it helps me get over my hatred for him.

        • Ted Nelson

          Boggs, Clemens, Damon… this is not a new experience.

      • http://musicaldaddy.blogspot.com Chuck M.

        You should see what it’s like out here in Pittsburgh. Houston leaving for the AL West has impacted Bucco fans hugely – there goes 12-14 wins every year. Now, more games against St. Louis, Cincinnati, and an improving Chicago & Milwaukee…

        • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

          I didn’t know they still played major league baseball in Pittsburgh.

          I thought the Pirates were an independent league time like the Newark Bears.

  • Mike HC

    I’ve been an 8 for a while. But just to shake it up, I am a 9 for 2013, a 6 for 2014-15 and an 8 for 2016 and beyond.

  • http://www.ProjectneoX.com ProjectNeo

    I’m at a 6, down from a 7. At this rate I can’t see Arod playing this year, and the loss of him, swish, and martin is really going to hurt the home run totals, and this is a team that lives and dies by the long ball. I also dont have faith in Youk being able to go the distance. Not to mention a Cervelli/Steward team behind the plate, thats just awful, I think they need to see what they have in Romine.

    Only reason im not lower is that i think this team will be a little more lively on the base paths, but thats a brand of baseball alot of these players arent familiar with.

    • Havok9120

      I’m with the company line regarding Romine: they can best see what they have by trying to get him full playing time in AAA, not effectively jumping him from AA to a hospital bed to winter ball to the Show.

      It will be interesting to see how the team looks minus so much power. It will unquestionably be worse. Gardner needs to stay healthy and effective if an older yet more walk/contact oriented team is going to remain nearly as effective results-wise as what we had last season.

      Your lack of any mention of pitching is…odd. Do stay away from believing the medical doomsayers that lack medical training as they tend to be rather silly people.

      • http://www.projectneox.com Projectneo

        I was on my way out the door and forgot to mention pitching. I’m actually very high on our pitching this year, CC/Hiroki/Andy at the top with Hughes/nova(who should bounce back, he has the talent)/phelps on the back end is a very solid rotation. And the bullpen, which was strong last year is losing a key piece but regaining a god. If Jobas control comes back, and aardsma is what we think he can be, pitching can be this teams strength.

        • Havok9120

          Please become a regular poster.

          We’ve got a lot of people going all out positive or negative and generally reacting violently to people whose temperament directs them toward the other mindset. People who can critique the negatives while still admitting that there are things to look forward to are always very welcome.

          • Jim Is Bored

            While I’m voting 10’s in these polls, I will fully admit to the team’s weaknesses.

            My actual opinion is probably more of a 7, but hey, I’m not gonna get too worked up about anything in the offseason. And irrational positivity is WAY more enjoyable than irrational pessimism.

          • Ted Nelson

            I don’t think there’s anyone who is all out positive. Just people reacting to the irrational negativity that seems to dominate the blog by pointing out that this is still a good team. No one is saying that this is a sure thing 100 win team in the prime of its collective success. This is still one of the better rosters in baseball, though, the farm system is at least average-ish, and the baseball operations management has a successful track record of rational decision making.

  • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

    Still at a 6 mainly because I’m skeptical they’re gonna be able to effectively fill all their holes in 2014 and beyond and this poll is asking about the “future.”
    If you only considered 2013, I’d be at an 8.

    6 seems to be by far the most popular number today.

    • Havok9120

      Has been the last few weeks.

    • Mike HC

      In my head, the next season, or current season, should hold the most weight (a bird in the hand …).

      • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

        It’s certainly the easiest to predict with any accuracy though “future” to many implies the next few years and I don’t think you can ignore the fact that at least from the outside, 2014 isn’t looking so great IMO.

        • Mike HC

          I’m not saying ignore other seasons at all. I’m just saying the current season holds the most weight for me.

          • Havok9120

            I’m the same way.

          • Ted Nelson

            Yes, this is the rational way to approach it. Discount future seasons at an increasingly higher rate because of the incredibly high rate of uncertainty.

  • Havok9120

    I’m usually at a 7, but I’ve been in a truly terrible mood the last 2-3 days and this is non-binding; 6 it is.

  • Upstate Yanks

    Russ Canzler ALCS MVP

    going with a 6 today

    • Robinson Tilapia

      I look forward to Gollum/Smoegal after the possible/potential/eventual DFA.

      “Dey shoould not waste their tiiiime on players like thiiiiis”
      “WHY DID THEY GET RID OF HIM?!?!”

  • Jim Is Bored

    10. Because at least for the offseason, I’ve decided that it’s more fun to take the “Awfuckit we’re the MF yankees” approach.

    And there are enough 0 trolls to balance out my irrationality.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      This completely ruins Mike’s chances to get some grant money out of the usually-reliable results of the confidence poll.

      • Jim Is Bored

        I can always be bribed…

    • jjyank

      I’m taking the same approach.

  • TLVP

    What happens to the $189m if A-Rod’s operation goes bad, Yankees collect on insurance and can release him? Does his salary still count towards the luxury tax? I hope it does becuase otherwise fans could be inclined to hope that things go wrong which would be wrong on so many levels.

    Over the last 10 years only 7 players have a bWAR above 20 for the Yankees…

    Sabathia 20.6
    Mussina 22.1
    Posada 23.5
    Jeter 29.0
    Rivera 30.8
    Cano 34.8

    and… (drumroll)

    A-Rod 57.9

    He’s the only Yankee to win an MVP in the last 25 years. He’s won a ring with us and he’ll end up in the HoF with a Yankee cap

    It’s not his fault that Hank got stupid.

    PS I’m shocked how high Mo ranked on that list…

    • TLVP

      PPS I’m a 7…

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Anyone seen David Cronenberg’s “Dead Ringers?” Does one of ARod’s doctors have an evil twin?

        • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

          Was that with Jeremey Irons and they were gynecologists?

          • Robinson Tilapia

            Yup. That was a freaky, and quite confusing, movie for a teenage me to watch.

            I could imagine it being worse to watch now.

            • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

              I remember thinking it kind of sucked at the time too.

              At that age, unless there was graphic violence or nudity, I probably wasn’t too interested.

    • Andy Pettitte’s Fibula (formerly Manny’s BanWagon)

      His salary still applies to the cap.

      I asked the same thing a while back because in the NBA, if a player retires because of injury, I believe the team can get some cap relief from that contract.

    • toad

      It’s not a question of whether it’s A-Rod’s fault or not. No one with any sense blames him for taking the contract. The problem is the contract’s existence and impact on the team.

  • Hoss

    I voted 3. Why?

    1. You thought the catching situation was bad with Martin? Try Stewart and Cervelli for 2013;
    2. Starting LF Gardner coming off injury and only played in 16 games last season;
    3. Closer Rivera coming off serious injury and last year’s closer is gone;
    4. Jeter coming off serious injury;
    5. Starting 3B Youkilis is more suited to 1B and is injury prone. A-Rod, even though in decline, will be missed for first half of season and it is tough to tell what he will be able to contributwe in second half;
    6. Front office has done nothing to improve the team in the offseason. Youkilis signed, essentially replaces Chavez. Losses in OF depth (Swisher, Ibanez, Jones), catching (Martin), bullpen (Soriano) not addressed;
    7. No promising minor league talent ready for 2013 season with possible exception of Romine, who likely will start at AAA.

    Bottom line: If the team does not address its losses and improve itself before the season starts, it will finish in the bottom portion of the division. It cannot count on return of injured players as replacements. There will be other injuries, and lots of them, as the team continues to age. Pitching is strong, but could always use more depth, especially with AAA looking lean at this point.

    • Jim Is Bored

      I’m not even sure I want to know what scale you’re grading on, and what the average confidence rating would be for every other team on that scale.

    • jjyank

      “If the team does not address its losses and improve itself before the season starts, it will finish in the bottom portion of the division”

      Why do so many people assume that everything will break badly for the Yankees, while nothing bad happens to the other very flawed teams in the division?

      • Hoss

        1. Veteran team (older than rivals)
        2, Coming off injuries
        3. Lost talent in offseason that wasn’t replaced

        How can you expect them to be better?

        • jjyank

          Where did I say they would be better?

          • Hoss

            Where did I say that everything would break badly?

            • jjyank

              It’s implied pretty strongly by saying they’re gonna finish at the bottom of the division.

              • Hoss

                No it isn’t. If a team is not as talented or prepared as its opponents, it can finish below them even if everything does not “break badly.”

                • jjyank

                  Well then you and I have very different ideas on the talent level and “preperation” of this team. As far as I’m concerned, if the Yankees finish third or lower, almost everything broke the wrong way, while many things broke the right way for other teams.

                  • Robinson Tilapia

                    Meh. I read it, thought “ok, you’re entitled to your opintion” and moved on.

                • Havok9120

                  Because not everything broke perfect (or even close to it) last season and we still won 95 games. Everything DID break perfect for the Orioles and likely won’t do so again and they have made precisely zero significant changes. The Jays have as many or more key cogs coming into camp that can be labeled “injury prone” at this point (although age gives them a theoretical leg up there), while also having a bunch of guys making a pretty significant league change. Tampa has made few, if any, net improvements. Boston had everything break wrong last season, but can we really say that they’re a better team talent wise than they have been the last two seasons?

                  The set of circumstances that has us finishing in the bottom two of the division involves a ton of things breaking wrong for us and a lot of things breaking right for at least 2 teams which haven’t made any obvious net improvements (Tampa, O’s, or Boston) AND a team which has as many question marks as we do (Toronto). It’s perfectly fine to think that we’re more likely to see things break badly than those teams are, but to not even admit that they have massive question marks of their own (which you’ve still not done here) is just plain silly.

                  • Jim Is Bored

                    Don’t overstate the O’s good luck.

                    They were lucky in 1 run games, but they had a lot of time lost to injury too, which could have made some of those 1 run wins multi-run wins.

                    • Ted Nelson

                      Did they really have that high a rate of injuries to meaningful players? (Not counting guys like Roberts or Johnson who were long shots to play even half a season in a realistic scenario.)

                      Markakis and Hammel, but I don’t see any other core guys. Yankees lost Pineda and Gardner for the whole season and Tex for a while. A-Rod, Pettitte, and Mo are arguably greater injury risks (A-Rod is, Pettitte and Mo are debatable), but they were all lost to pretty random, bad luck injuries.

                      Maybe I’m forgetting some guys, but I don’t see that many injuries on the Os last season. Most of their core guys played a whole lot of games.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      All I’ll say is that you’re entitled to your opinion and what you are saying is a possible outcome.

      I’ll also add that, if I was going into the season with this sort of pessimism, I couldn’t see myself getting much enjoyment out of baseball.

    • Get Phelps Up

      8. They lost Chris Dickerson.

      • Havok9120

        *awaits avalanche*

        Joking aside, I really did expect that Dickerson thread to get worse than it did after all the….enthusiasm we’ve seen for him in the comments section over the years.

  • Klemy

    I guess I’ve been ping ponging most of the off-season between 7 and 6 as my mood goes. The recent news about Alex’s surgery has me back to a 6 again for the time being.

    We should still contend in 2013, but my outlook for 2014+ is a little low at this point.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      My take has always been that its impossible for me to have any guess as to 2014 because of so many movable parts in place.

      I can be uncertain, but I can’t truly be optimistic or pessimistic yet.

      That’s just me, and your mileage will vary.

      • Ted Nelson

        I would argue that’s not just you, but the right way to look at it.

    • Havok9120

      I’m more or less with RT above, but I will say the ARod thing didn’t phase me. As far as I can tell, they’ve stuck to the same timetable that they had when the injury was diagnosed 5-6 weeks ago. The fact that the media grabbed it and started shouting “he still hasn’t had his surgery!!” without bothering to mention any evidence that there’s been a setback doesn’t seem like something that should bother me just yet.

  • Reuben Sierra’s Chains

    Ted wants to know why the poll only goes up to 10. He is at a good 30 or so.

    • Havok9120

      See, and now when he sees this he’ll probably rant at you for attacking him personally without provocation (which is exactly what you’ve done) and we’ll get another snowballing rant of personal -often baseless- attacks between people who don’t actually know each other. And then from here on you’ll cite this as further evidence that Ted is a bastard.

      Are you really so bored that you need to provoke the guy for no meaningful gain?

      • Jim Is Bored

        I think you already know the answer to your question.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        I suppose there will also be a false equivalency argument made in response saying that you and I needle, say, Eddard and dalelama all the time, which would have some merit.

        However, Ted not only has knowledge to back up his points, but these long arguments that go on here tax me much more than a one-off troll by one of the other guys.

        If you really don’t like the arguments, don’t bait him and, for God’s sake, if you don’t want all your good points to go in vain, don’t take that bait so often.

        I think Ted’s smart enough not to take this bait.

        • Havok9120

          The difference being if you actually manage to make it into my Troll Book, I completely stop engaging you. Even if I reference them once in awhile I’m not going to respond to, let alone argue with, their posts unless they start black balling someone. These guys will directly argue with Ted for 100 posts, half of which are just flinging insults and repeating themselves.

          When, say, Ted and Need Pitching argue for an hour, I can expect to read the argument and learn something because they are probably two of the most knowledgeable baseball people here and if they DON’T know something they’ll look it up. It’s actual engagement of arguments and facts, even if it gets more heated than is reasonable. But when it’s just raw antagonism and baiting, what’s the point?

          And I know you called it a FALSE equivalency and wouldn’t argue it yourself, but for those that would, there’s my response. :p

          • Robinson Tilapia

            One’s the quick painful band-aid removal. The other’s a root canal.

        • Ted Nelson

          “I think Ted’s smart enough not to take this bait.”

          Yeah, I wouldn’t even consider that bait. It elicited no emotional reaction from me at all.

          • Reuben Sierra’s Chains

            Of course you still had to post and make that known, Robinson, err I mean Ted.

        • Reuben Sierra’s Chains

          I’m starting to really think that you are really posting as Ted as well or you have a scary infatuation with the guy.

          Not sure if Teddy boy needs you flying in like a superhero to defend everything directed at him. It’s freaking pathetic.

          I mean I know you think you run shit here, but…

          • Jim Is Bored

            Oh he mad!

  • qwerty

    This team is dead if they have to rely on their farm and trades.

    • Ted Nelson

      They’ve had success with both.