Fan Confidence Poll: February 11th, 2013

Snowmageddon Open Thread Part III
Jeter begins running, given the "green light" to ramp up rehab

2012 Record: 95-67 (804 RS, 668 RA, 96-66 pythag. record), won AL East, swept in ALCS

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
Snowmageddon Open Thread Part III
Jeter begins running, given the "green light" to ramp up rehab
  • Cris Pengiucci

    Continuing at a 7 despite the lack of major additions this offseason. I am optomistic the team will continue to be a contender going forward, even though the team will probably suffer through a season or 2 of less than optimal performance (perhaps mising the playoffs a couple of seasons in a row. I’m happy to hear that the team’s top prospects are well regarded and hope the injuries sustained by Banuelos and Campos will be only minor set backs. Also hoping that Pineda is able to provide some valuable innings toward the end of this season and come back strong in ’14.

    Should Sanchez, Williams, Heathcott & Austin continue to progress and the injured pitchers come back and come near expectations, along with other less heralded MiLB players, the future should be pretty good.


    • CS Yankee

      Continuing a 6…agree with every point you make except that they seem to have laid an egg at the Catcher position with good options at least a year (Romine) or two (Murphy) or more (Sanchez) away.

      I expect some good news to occur in the starting pitching department as the talent is there and they are beyond due for a healthy arm to mature.

      • CS Yankee



    • dalelama

      My very prophetic 6 last year has sunk to a 5 as we are now weaker at C, RF, 3rd, and bullpen. Hopefully we can sneak into the playoffs before getting knocked out.

  • trr

    moving up a little because of hopeful news from the farm system

  • Robinson Tilapia

    Fuck it. 8. Pineda, Banuelos, and Campos can apparently still recognize what a baseball looks like.

    • Cris Pengiucci

      Wasn’t aware of that. Bump me up to an 11.

  • Preston

    Fangraphs just released their Red Sox ZiPS projections so the AL East is done.

    Blue Jays +45 WAR
    Rays +41 WAR
    Yankees +40 WAR
    Red Sox +38 WAR
    Orioles +33 WAR

    Third place would probably have little chance of getting the WC, so they need to outperform these projections somewhere. Austin Romine catching and hitting at an acceptable level could help. Ichiro being better than terrible would also help.

    • jjyank

      I still don’t buy the Blue Jays winning the division. I do believe the Yankees will finish higher than second.

      • jjyank

        Higher than *third*, I meant. But really, my optimistic self sees them as a solid contender for winning the division as well.

      • Preston

        People keep saying that the Blue Jays are being over-hyped. But honestly looking at that projection I don’t think anything is out of line or rosy. So I’d like to know where you think the projections are wrong?

        • jjyank

          Talent wise, I don’t think that it’s that wrong. I don’t see them staying healthy though. The Blue Jays winning the division likely means that Johnson and Reyes stayed healthy all year, Encarnacion has another career year, and Bautista shows no step back from the wrist injury. Dickey might be good, or he might struggle in a tougher league. Buerhle doesn’t scare me at all.

          They have a lot of question marks as well. If everyone stays healthy, then sure, they’re a contender. But if you flip that same logic around to the Yankees, so are they. In that scenario, you’re talking full, healthy years from Hafner, Youk, Tex, Gardner, and perhaps even half a year of A-Rod.

          • TCMiller30

            Keep in mind there’s blood testing for HGH. I expect a dip from Joey Bats and Encarnacion this season.

            • Preston

              Oh, because you know that they use HGH and that no Yankee does? Come on dude.

              • Cris Pengiucci

                I see what you’re saying. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if either of those 2 performed lower than their career averages suggest, especially Encarnacion, who seemed to put up significantly better numbers than expected last year, for whatever reason.

            • Manny’s BanWagon (formerly Andy Pettitte’s Fibula)

              Please, I think there’s just as much of a chance that Cano is using PEDs as Bautista and Encarnacion.

              • Tcmiller30

                Well.. I see sarcasm does not work in this comments section. I’ll alert Mike.

          • Ted Nelson

            “In that scenario, you’re talking full, healthy years from Hafner, Youk, Tex, Gardner, and perhaps even half a year of A-Rod.”

            No. The 40 wins gives you nothing from A-Rod, half a season from Gardner, 3/4 from Youk, 1/2 from Pettitte, 1/2 from Hafner.

            I don’t see why you’d expect Tex to get hurt. Last season was the first time in years he got missed much of any time.

        • Ted Nelson

          We can nitpick any team’s projections, I’m sure, but if you chip away at optimistic projections for young Blue Jays and pessimistic projections for old Yankees (plus adjust the individual projections to a team level in a real way), I think you can close the gap somewhat if not entirely. Below I quickly found 5 fWAR that you could easily say are overstated for the Blue Jays.

          The 3 fWAR at C requires their two Cs to combine for almost 900 PAs (literally, from the ZIPs projections themselves). Arencibia and Thole have averaged 1.55 fWAR the past two seasons (1.7 in 2011 and 1.4 in 2012, so not much variability) combining for more than a season’s worth of playing time… and they’re going to suddenly double that in 2013?

          I know Rasmus has the talent for much more, but he’s averaged 1.2 fWAR the past two seasons. Gose is behind him, I suppose.

          Adam Lind has COMBINED for -0.1 fWAR the past three season and that 45 number has him at a win.

          Encarnacion averaged 1.8 fWAR his first 7 full seasons in the league, never topping 2. 3 isn’t necessarily unfair considering how good he was in 2012, but I don’t have muct confidence in it.

          Romero was at 0.5 fWAR last season. I don’t doubt he has the talent if healthy, but 3 fWAR seems optimistic. He averaged 3.27 fWAR in his three healthy seasons, so given the chances he repeats 2012 I don’t see how 3 fWAR is possibly his projection.

          • Ted Nelson

            *easily argue are overstated

          • Ted Nelson

            To clarify, the first one I list seems to be just an error with the non-existent method of aggregating individual performance to a team level. The Jays will probably get about 600 PAs out of their Cs, not 900. 2/3 * 3 fWAR = 2 fWAR.
            If you give the Yankees credit for some positive contribution while their players who are expected to miss huge chunks are out (just taking the projected production of the players on the roster, not trades or anything) and take that win away from the Jays at C, I think you might have closed the gap to, say, 2 wins (total guess on the Yankees, but Phelps alone is projected for 1.3 fWAR in 118 IP, plus you might replace Youk/Hafner with half a win from Adams or a win from A-Rod, plus Gardner might be replaced by half a win from Austin… could easily close the gap to 1 or 0 wins without questioning the ZIPs output one bit, just adjusting to a team level).

            The others are just a subjective take on what seems unrealistic given historical performance.

      • Jim Is Bored

        I think we’ll be in the running for the AL East and a Wild Card.

        Beyond that, I don’t really care. I’d love to win the division and avoid the play in game, but playoffs is playoffs, and might give us just a little bit more ground to stand on when we tell people not to panic next year.

        • Preston

          We are definitely good enough to win. Can’t wait, it should be a fun season.

          • Mike HC

            Yea, I’m looking forward to this year. Every team in our division has some exciting talent, meaning there are going to be a lot of meaningful and fun games to watch this year.

    • Laz

      Don’t buy it. The Sox aren’t nearly that close to the Yankees.

      • Preston

        I’m not selling it, they’re just computer projections. I do think that we know things about the Red Sox that don’t go into the calculation. Drew and Ellsbury have had serious injury problems, Napoli’s hip is apparently toast, and Middlebrooks just had a broken wrist, an injury that saps power which is the tool that gives him most of his value. However when you look at their roster their is definitely a situation where it breaks right and they are pretty good.

    • Gonzo

      Looks like it might be a good tight race for a while. Could be another exciting year.

    • Ted Nelson

      Interestingly 3rd place might have as good a chance as 2nd place.

      I’m just not sure that those are accurate projections, though. They are individual projections crudely being moved to the team level. They just sum up the regular players’ full-season production with no consideration for games missed and replacements. For a team where everyone is expected to be full-time and healthy they might be pretty accurate. If you have guys expected to miss big chunks of the season in the projections, decent fill-ins, a solid producer expected back mid-season, a platoon/strong bench player, etc. they might not accurately reflect what ZIPs is really projecting your team as a whole to do. Between Pettitte and Youk being expected to miss half the season and A-Rod and Pineda being expected back mid-season I think ZIPs might easily actually project +2 wins for the Yankees, plus maybe another fraction of a win with Gardner not expected to play a full season. (And that’s not even getting into whether the projections are right or not, just what ZIPs actually seems to project at a team level.)

      I also don’t think one projected win is anything to even consider, anyway. Has to be well, well, well within the margin of error. 5 wins is probably within the margin of error.

      • Ted Nelson

        Looking again, it’s Pettitte, Gardner, and Hafner who are expected to miss half a season and Youk expected to miss a quarter or so. I had Youk and Gardner confused.

      • Preston

        Obviously it’s all within the margin of error. And the Yankees and Rays are for all intensive purposes even. The Blue Jays seem to be slightly better than both though.

        • Ted Nelson

          My main point is that these are individual projects slapped together with no thought whatsoever on a team level. They are not really team-level projections of anything. The margin of error is more of a secondary point.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      Bring it on.

      I love projections like this. It will be all the more sweeter when they leave those projections in the dust.

    • dalelama

      If we are banking on Romine we are in deep shite. His bat really stinks.

      • Ted Nelson


  • Bryan V

    BTW, Felix’s extension is in limbo now since he has some trouble in his pitching elbow. Not that the Yankees would want him in 2 years anyway if he’s hurt (his current deal only has those 2 years remaining).

    • Robinson Tilapia

      1) I could think of a lot of ways every team in baseball would still want him in two years, even with an elbow issues.

      2) My assumption is that some adjustmnents will be made to the deal and it ends up signed anyway.

  • Thomas Moriarty

    Hey fuck the yankees.

    AROD rox


    • Robinson Tilapia

      Now THIS is good trolling.

    • MannyGeee

      VERY Nomaas-ian addition to the thread. Thanks for this.

    • Jim Is Bored

      The POOP sells it.

  • Kingslayer

    Down to a 4. I predict a last place finish!