Feb
18
Fan Confidence Poll: February 18th, 2013
BySpring Training Schedule This Week: @ Braves (Sat.), vs. Blue Jays (Sun. on YES)
Top stories from last week:
- Pitchers and catchers reported to Spring Training on Tuesday, though Alex Rodriguez will not be in with the team in camp. He’ll remain in New York to continue his rehab from left hip surgery. Joe Girardi discussed a number of topics during his start-of-camp press conference.
- There is a “significant difference” in valuation during talks between the Yankees and Robinson Cano about a long-term contract. The team has not yet discussed an extension with either Phil Hughes or Curtis Granderson, who would like to remain with the team. Andy Pettitte isn’t sure if he’ll pitch in 2014, though Mariano Rivera has already made his decision. He said he would have retired in the offseason had he been able to pitch in the playoffs. Rivera will let everyone know his plans before Opening Day.
- Injury News: CC Sabathia (elbow) threw off a mound for the first time since having a bone spur removed. Derek Jeter (ankle) has started running and was given the “green light” to ramp up his rehab. He has a plate and screws in his ankle. Michael Pineda (shoulder) started throwing off a full mound and is on track to face hitters next month. The team is taking it easy on Boone Logan (elbow) early in camp. David Adams (back) is about a week behind. Cesar Cabral (elbow) continues throwing off a mound.
- The Yankees acquired reliever Shawn Kelley from the Mariners for Abe Almonte. Alex Rodriguez (hip) was placed on the 60-day DL to clear a 40-man roster spot.
- The Yankees continue to look for a veteran pitcher to stash in Triple-A, and they plan to scout Chien-Ming Wang in the World Baseball Classic. Frankie Cervelli withdrew from the WBC.
- The Yankees and Ticketmaster formed the Yankees Ticket Exchange.
Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.
Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
- 10 (very confident)
- 9
- 8
- 7
- 6
- 5
- 4
- 3
- 2
- 1 (no confidence)
53 Comments»
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It’s cool to be first for the vote – nobody disagrees with you.
I disagree with you that you were the first vote.
technically I disagree with your assumption that he said he was the first to vote
Nobody agrees with you either!
My confidence is growing, based on an improving farm system and what should be a superior pitching staff for this year. Age/injuries still a major concern for this season
I’m confident in the organization… but I think there are a few down years coming before regaining supremacy.
It seems to me between the big contracts to ARod, Teix and CC, and with the aging of Jeter, Mo and Andy, that every knew that things could get bad ‘sometime in the future’.
Well… ‘sometime in the future’ is here.
I personally believe with the current situation of MLB, and the CBA’s continuing pursuit of bringing the Yankees to Earth, that it is impossible to have an ongoing WS bound team.
2014 and 2015 will be a time to save some money and reload for 2016 going forward.
Exactly my thoughts. I’m hopefull for a strong 2013 and quite unsure about 2014 & 2015. Those could be years the Yankees miss the playoffs. Regardless of what happens with Cano, Granderson, Jeter, A-Rod, Teix and the $189M budget, I think that by 2016 the team should be back to being a playoff contender, with the possibility of regaining the dominance we’ve seen since the mid-90′s.
I agree with your comments. Looking at the long term contracts, I hope the organization will make a competitive bid for Cano in money but refrain from more than 5/6 years. If it is not enough then I would be OK with Cano moving on. Long term contracts are one sided in favor of the player. Organizations who use them do so to appease the fan base and error in judgment IMHO.
I voted 6 but do believe the team can be competitive and if remain mostly free of injuries and our senior citizen players accept and given some time off then this season could be hopeful and developmental for some of our younger guys such as Phelps, Romine, Nunez and maybe Adams.
I know you have to draw the line somewhere, but if you are willing to go 5/6, would 7/8 really be the deal breaker to let Cano walk. Are you really that concerned with 2020 and 2021 that it would make sense to let Cano go? The CBA could be totally different by then and there are fewer and fewer free agents available out there to even hand out those huge contracts to anymore, so he might be one of the last monster deals the Yanks hand out for a little while. Cano is at least the caliber of player that “deserves” these huge deals.
My line would be drawn at 9/10 years. I think 5/6 is probably fair, so 7/8 on the open market is an acceptable overpay to me. 9/10 is beyond an overpay into pure ridiculous territory.
i think most of us who are drawing the line at 5/6 are doing so because we’re already expecting at least 1 or 2 of those 6 years to be steep decline years and 1 to be downright bad. By that line of thinking, adding two more would be really silly.
Mike HC: I do draw the line at 5/6 anything 7/10 is truly throwing up to 4 years and 25 million per out the window. Many younger talented players will have to be passed with the expense of 100 million of overpay on Cano with the 7/10. The CBA has done an effective job of icing the Yankees advantages over the most of the other clubs.
I do agree that you don’t have to pay 200 million plus to win. It seems to me that you gather older players who have lost some skills and overpay for their name.
Its up to Cashman as GM to gather those players who will bring championships to the Yankees. We have more than our share of long term contracts with high price tags and 2009 was the last WS win. SO I’m willing to let Cano walk if 125/150 million is not enough. We can revisit Cano’s situation after the 5/6 for any future year(s).
To Havok and Larry … I guess it basically comes down to how much we are willing to overpay. All of us agree 9-10 is just not happening. I really have 7 as my personal max, with 8 as a “maybe.” 5/6 would definitely be optimal though assuming 4 is just a pipe dream.
I think even 6 is a pipe dream, which is a problem since I don’t smoke. I’m just barely willing to go 7 guaranteed. 8 makes me cringe.
We shall see. I’m not all that concerned about it at the moment.
This has to be the most reliable poll in existence, forget Rasmussen, Gallup, etc.
Always the same results, seems to me: Few freakazoids go ape s**t one way or ‘nother in being either way confident or doomsayers, always skewing above avg, on avg. Looks like a pretty rational bunch of fans here. On average, of course…
Well, it seems largely rational. We can throw out the 10′s and 1′s (they pretty much balance each other out anyway), but I still tend to disagree with the fairly large number of 5 & below votes. This organization, by any measure I can think of, is far better than average for the league. Even if you allow the 5′s, I still think there are too many people that see this organization as below average (4 vote or lower). I just don’t understand that and would love to hear arguments to try to persuade me to go lower than my 7. I am open to hearing arguments.
It depends on what end as an orgainzation you are confident in achieving. For me it is the confidence they will win the WS this year.
And that’s part of the reason I’m not at a 10. Vegas odds makers have only 3 teams with a higher likelyhood of winning the WS than the Yankees (Nationals, Tigers & Giants), so I would be higher than my current 7 if that’s the criteria I used. However I also look at future years, and as I expect a downturn in ’14 & ’15, I feel a 7 is appropriate.
The Yankees have nearly as good a chance as any team this season. Looking at this season alone, I’d go an 8 or a 9, but still don’t get going any lower than 6 long term, and even that feels low to me.
BTW, what did you vote?
And I see the answer to that below. At least you’re not at a 2 or something similarly silly, but I really think the Yankees have a better chance than well more than 50% of the other MLB teams of winning the WS this season.
” I really think the Yankees have a better chance than well more than 50% of the other MLB teams of winning the WS this season.”
That is a pretty worthless call. The question is are they better than the Angels, Tigers, Rangers, Blue Jays, Rays, or Orioles? And that isn’t even considering the National league. You seem to forget how thick our line-up is with choke artists.
I don’t know why I bother, but if you think we’re better than 50%, you can’t vote less than a 6.
It’s math. Idiot.
I think most of the comment arguments come from everybody using a different grading scale. Some people are grading the yanks against the rest of the league. Some people grading against the Yankee standard of WS or failure. Others grading like school grades where 7 is average and under 6 is failing, instead of 5 being avg. Others voting 10′s and 1′s just because they can etc …
Hoss had a long response on this last month to justify his 3 (or maybe 4). (Almost) all of the complaints were perfectly reasonable, he was just weighting them in a massively negative way (in my view) and without taking the rest of the league’s question marks into account. It requires you to look at the Yankees in a vacuum rather than in terms of their competition.
That’s my biggest complaint. Why is it “rational” for people to weigh things extraordinarily negatively?
It’s perfectly fair to be worried about this team now and into the future. But it’s very narrow minded and ignores what’s going on in all of the other clubhouses to vote a 3-4, because our success is directly related to how well other teams do too.
I vote a 4 every week. My reasoning is that it seems the Yankees are now going about building a team in a different way. They are reducing payroll while the rest of the league is increasing theirs, reducing their huge advantage over the rest of baseball.
It seems that they are going to try building the team from the minor leagues, which in my opinion has not been their strong suit. I’m not saying they cant do it that way, but I will have to see it to believe it. I am also not convinced that the Stienbrenners are in it for the long haul, which also adds more uncertainty in my mind.
In the end $189m is alot of money to build a team with. However, I do not believe its a lot of money when you have spent the last 10yrs well over that threshold doing business one way. A guy that makes 200k a year makes a lot of money. If a guy making a couple million a year were suddenly to make 200k, he would have some issues living on the $200k, and have to downsize his life considerably. I think thats where the Yankees are, they are downsizing and it remains to be seen how successful they will be at it. I’m not at all confident in the organizations ability to make these changes without major hiccups.
My very prophetic six of last year has been downgraded to a five as the team has gotten worse from the start of last year in the bullpen, at 3rd, catcher, and right field.
I reject the premise of your entire statement.
Agree. The Yankees were one of the final 4 teams standing last season. Better than 26 other teams. How is that a 6? Also, not entirely sure the Yankees have gotten worse at 3rd and improved D may balance out the offensive loss at that position and they have improved in LF which could balance out the loss at C. While I don’t expect them to score as many runs this season, they may give up fewer and may also be a bit more consistent in their run scoring. 2013 could be another very strong year.
“and improved D may balance out the offensive loss at that position” – this comment references the RF situation.
Ok Pollyannas put down your Kool Aid. You seem to forget our team disgracefully slithered out of the playoffs last year like typhoid infested rats after narrowly squeaking by a very weak O’s squad. Again I will prove you wrong at the end of the year.
Please just shut up already. The only thing infested is my comments with your idiocy.
Just ban him already.
Is it more likely that the Yankees won’t win the WS than they are to win it? Yes, that’s true of all teams. But I do think they’ve got a much better chance than most teams. Once they make the playoffs (I suspect they will), it’s a crap shoot. If everyone goes cold again and a team leader goes down with an injury, sure they could lose (and look pretty terrible doing so). Or, they could all get hot and win it all. I’m just saying I’d rather be rooting for this team than any other, and if I were betting, I’d be more likely to bet in this team than almost any other.
There are 5 teams with better odds of winning the WS according to Vegas with the Yankees at 12/1 and several teams at 7/1 or 8/1 and a bunch right behind the Yankees at 14-16/1.
Smart money, as always is taking the field.
Boy, going out on a limb there, predicting we won’t win the World Series. What a fantastic prediction. We’re so glad you’re here.
And it’s not your team. You care more about being right and being a negative pissy bitch than being a fan.
Worse at 3rd? Come on now. “Choke master purple lips” is gone and replaced by clutch, gritty, career postseason .944 OPS Youk and you don’t consider that an upgrade?
(this is not my opinion necessarily, but don’t see how dalelama does not see third as an upgrade given his hatred of ARod and love of gritty and clutch)
i try to vote as if it’s 1996-2001 didn’t happen. those years should be treasured as a once-in-a-generation anomaly and not “the way things would be if not for that idiot cashman”
8
I went up from a 7 from a 6…I’d been borderline between the two for awhile now. I don’t base it on anything but the current year and don’t projections on coming years, too much can happen between now and then. Maybe the upswing in my confidence could be the renewal of spring and the thought of Ichiro’s glittery hat making my heart flutter.
Still a 6.
I think they have a run in them before they take a major step back next year unless they scrap the budget.
This also presumes no major success in the minors.
I think the point is that if they’re gonna stay under 189 AND keep annual contention in the cards they don’t need A major success in the minors, they need several. At least 1 OF and 1 prospect-type pitcher (two if Pineda folds) needs to be ready by next season, avoiding major injuries, other major position players stay on track, etc.
The Yankees are not going to ‘stay’ under $189m. 2 years at most. That could save them as much as $100m. Now with LAD over $200m and other teams at $150m, we won’t be the ‘big, bad Yankees buying championships’ anymore. After that, the big contracts will almost be off the books, and the farm should be contributing. And I am sure the FO will reinvest most of their savings back into the team, and we will be very strong going forward.
The difference will be in the future, we will spend our money more wisely, and continue to keep the farm a priority.
The difference will be in the future, we will spend our money more wisely, and continue to keep the farm a priority.
Yeah, they’re gonna flip a switch and become smarter, more efficient and develop their own talent better because they haven’t really been trying to do these things the last 5-6 years.
lol it is a bit of a stretch
There is precisely zero evidence that they’re going to go back over 189 after the second year. None. I grant you, there is nothing but ambiguous statements from Hal that 189 is to be a cap for the team’s budget, but it would not surprise me.
For the record, I expect them to be willing to fly over the cap in short bursts. But there has been no word from the FO or ownership to back that up.
I grant you, there is nothing but ambiguous statements from Hal that 189 is to be a cap for the team’s budget, but it would not surprise me.
———————
There was a post on here about his comments. I felt there were nothing more than fans are complaining so I’m going to throw them a bone.
8 for a while now. The veterans should be able to hang on for a couple more years before our highly touted hitting prospects reach the majors. Also like that Hal seems to have amended his 189 no matter what comments into 189 only if I still think the team can win a championship. Time will tell if he is being honest there. Letting Cano, Granderson, Hughes and Joba (or 75% of them) go, will basically mean he was bullshitting.
I’m at 5 until I see the FO do something to improve the team long term. The impact guys in the minors are too far away to be able to project what if any value they will have, either on the roster or in a trade.
The FO is in a holding pattern, so am I.
Barring catastrophic injuries I think the Yanks will be good this year. I think it’s too optimistic that the Yanks can take a few years off in 14 and 15 and bounce back in 16. The track record of the org developing talent, the managing of the health and development of their prospects and the new CBA rules suggest to me that if they do let this team fade they are goingto have an incredibly tough time being a top AL team.
“The track record of the org developing talent” … Your opinion is fair, but I take it you meant the above quoted line in a negative way. The Yanks have developed Jeter, Mo, Pettitte, Jorge, Bernie and Cano within the past 18 years. Leading them to 5 championships, 7 WS appearances and 17 playoff appearances. What other organization has developed 6 players of that caliber and that longevity in that same time span? Or any time span when there were like more than 20-25 teams in the league? I haven’t done extensive research on it, but I doubt any team has done better or even equaled them, not even including being able to keep the talent for their entire careers, just developing them through becoming Major League superstars.
Yeah Mike, the real problem is we haven’t developed players at that level in a while. Definitely done a good job with bullpen arms, but if the Yanks are not going to outspend their mistakes and deficiencies going forward, its going to be a different landscape for us Yankee fans.
Part of the “problem” is the move to parity thanks to the new regs and the increased revenue to the other teams from the new tv deal.
A favorable trade or a couple of breakout players could move my optimism up quickly, but for right now, the Steins are at best treading water. I’m not sure anyone can say what their ultimate goals really are.
Fair enough. And agreed about that last sentence. We all basically knew George Steinbrenner the owner. His kids are still a wild card at this point.
My rating has gone up from a 7 to an 8. The strategy of using older players on one or two year contracts as placeholders has allowed them to retain their prospects and evaluate them for another year. This is crucial because the bulk of their prospect depth is at the lower levels. It maximizes your optionality for next year and beyond. Getting older this year allows them to get younger next year and the year after that. I see this as a strong organizational vote of confidence in the farm. One could argue that they retained prospects because they didn’t have enough MLB ready talent to get back fair value in a trade, but this also indicates their assessment of the upside potential of some of these guys. In any case, having another year to evaluate them is worth something in itself. Also, I’m really looking forward to one more year of Mo, one more year of Andy, two more years of Jeter. These are Yankee icons, who can all still play. And I’m fine with signing a HOF player in great condition like Ichiro, and a gamer like Youkilis.
This organization has made the postseason 17 out of the last 18 years. I don’t quite believe that the postseason itself is a pure crapshoot, but I believe it is effectively one, as it is impossible to predict a given player’s performance during a given 3 weeks in October in any actionable way. Making the post-season is basically all you can ask out of a front office, and this one has excelled at it. Based on the very strong evidence of their track record, I believe they’ve put together enough to get there again, and after that you roll the dice.