Fan Confidence Poll: February 4th, 2013

Super Bowl XLVII Open Thread
Yankees rank tenth in Keith Law's farm system rankings

2012 Record: 95-67 (804 RS, 668 RA, 96-66 pythag. record), won AL East, swept in ALCS

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Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results
Super Bowl XLVII Open Thread
Yankees rank tenth in Keith Law's farm system rankings
  • BJ

    Actually, Heathcott didn’t make MLB’s Top 100 (though he should have). Mason Williams did make the list, though he didn’t get an invite to ST because he’s still rehabbing.

  • Robinson Tilapia

    Baseline 7. *snore*

    • Cris Pengiucci

      The re-signing of Kay nearly dropped me to a 2 from the baseline 7. :-)

      • Robinson Tilapia


        Fine, the Pronk signing and Pineda being able to mouth the word “baseball” moved me up to a 7.1.

  • Mickey Scheister

    I voted a 5, mainly because of injury. CC, Jeter, Gardner, A-Rod and Mo. Five key starters, have yet to prove they’re 100% ready and healthy. If all the injuries mentioned prove to be moot points, then my five could easily jump up to a seven.

    Hopefully Cano, Youk, Hughes, Joba and Hiroki all have huge walk years in hopes of nice paydays for next year or beyond.

    Can Youk, Ichiro, Gardner, Grandy, Teix, Hafner and A-Rod prove last years dip in(or complete lack thereof) performance was just a blip or if their level of talent is just starting to erode?

    Too many “if’s” to feel all 2009 happy, but I’m not completely counting them out. Hopefully when the injury bug does hit, the AAA/AA guys are ready to step up and make the whole 2014 payroll issue a non-issue.

    • jjyank

      I’m a bit more optimistic than you, but all valid concerns. I’d just like to say that it’s not entirely fair to have Gardner in the “prove that your talent level is not eroding” category. There’s no reason to believe last year’s injury will impact his talent level going forward.

      • Mickey Scheister

        I’m hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst. Cashman knows what he’s doing, despite the RAB rage for not signing every Tom, Dick and Harry. On Gardner, he had that monster defensively and base path driven 7 WAR in 2010, if he could muster half of that in 2013, I’d be happy. A 260/.345/.360 year with elite defense and a strong (hopefully) center-field would be very valuable. As a CF as opposed to a corner OF, I’d expect a dip in WAR anyway. My main concern, to your point, wouldn’t be the erosion of his skill, moreso just proving his 2010/2011 was his true talent and really just staying healthy for a solid 550 PAs, which he’s only done twice as he enters his age 29 season. Again, hoping for the best, preparing for 2012 GGBG.

        • jjyank

          Fair enough. I don’t consider Gardner as much as of an injury problem, though. When you say “his age 29 season”, it is a bit misleading since he broke in as a full time MLB player at a later age. I consider his injury of the freak nature, so I’m not real worried about it going forward.

          • Now Batting

            Gardner’s been hurt more than most people remember. He broke his thumb sliding in 2009 and missed about a month, although Melky had taken over. In 2010 he hurt his wrist in the second half. While he didn’t miss time his numbers really tanked afterwards. 2012 he was supposed to have a minor elbow injury and wound up missing the whole season. So he’s only been fully healthy for one season out of the last 4.

        • Ted Nelson

          I don’t think it’s clear that his WAR will dip in CF (if he moves there). Moving to CF, his offense will be more in-line with other players at the position. Angel Pagan, for example, was at 4.8 fWAR with a .334 wOBA, average fielding, and a Gardner # in baserunning. Gardner has a career .326 wOBA, and might still be above average defensively in CF.

          I also think you’re misrepresenting his injury record. He’s had 4 550+ PA seasons as a pro. Of the three that weren’t, for one he was a bench player and for the other he had 441.

          Instead of just talking about the best and worst, why not set some realistic expectations based on the likelihood of various outcomes?

    • Robinson Tilapia

      What we call a “5” is subjective, but hard to disagree with the reasoning here.

  • Manny’s BanWagon (formerly Andy Pettitte’s Fibula)

    Baseline 6.

    Like the Hafner signing but the Arod circus is likely to be in high gear this whole season.

    • Cris Pengiucci

      Unless this turns into something similar to 2009. We can hope …

      • Manny’s BanWagon (formerly Andy Pettitte’s Fibula)

        Sure they can still win but considering his diminishing production, I think the distraction he’s gonna provide will far outweigh his production on the field especially since he’s missing half the season.

        • Nice Guy Eddie

          I disagree, this team knows how to deal with all the media BS and Arod (with some semblance of health) is a top 5 3B in the game still. Problem is, getting him back by midseason(or at all) is looking less and less likely, imo.

          • Jersey Joe

            “Arod (with some semblance of health) is a top 5 3B in the game still.”


            • Cris Pengiucci

              Disagree. I think that’s a very fair assessment. The problem is that we don’t know if he’ll ever have “some semblance of health” again in his career.

              • Manny’s BanWagon (formerly Andy Pettitte’s Fibula)


                Though he did miss 40 games last year, he ranked 21st among 3rd baseman in WAR. Now he’s a year older and coming off another major hip surgery, not to mention who knows what effect not using PEDs will have on him (assuming he couldn’t possibly be stupid enough to use them this year).

                I think the days of him being a top 5 3rd basemen are likely gone unless you think this hip surgery will be the solution to his problems. Given the state of the position however, I could buy top 15, maybe even top 10 at the most optimistic.

                • Ted Nelson

                  Great, but he wasn’t healthy last year. So… pretty irrelevant to the discussion.

                  He was a top 5 3B in 2010-11. I don’t think assuming he regains that form is particularly optimistic. I would, in fact, say that assuming everything goes wrong is unrealistically pessimistic.

                  You are making huge assumptions, including that the surgery will be a bad rather than good thing for his health/production (he couldn’t move the hip before, so it could very well be good… and the Dr who performed it seemed to indicate that it would be), and that the PEDs thing impacts him negatively. If I remember correctly, we shouldn’t use allegation of use or assumptions that PEDs help when determining who makes the hall. Why the double standard here?

                  • Manny’s BanWagon (formerly Andy Pettitte’s Fibula)

                    Correction: 2010 to 2012 he was the 9th ranked 3rd baseman in 2010, not top 5 according to fWAR.

                    Also health does have total relevance to his production unless there’s a way he can contribute to the team from the DL.

                    Given the exorbitant amount of time he’s spent on the DL the last 4 years, expecting him to be highly productive and healthy is completely unrealistic especially now that we’ve learned he’s likely been taking PEDs this whole time.

                  • Manny’s BanWagon (formerly Andy Pettitte’s Fibula)

                    If I remember correctly, we shouldn’t use allegation of use or assumptions that PEDs help when determining who makes the hall. Why the double standard here?

                    I fully believe that PEDs do help performance and the evidence just keeps stacking up that he’s been using so if you want to take the position that:

                    A. He maybe hasn’t been using
                    B. Even if he was using, they don’t improve performance

                    more power to you because I strongly disagree with both of those positions

        • LK

          You can also turn that narrative on its head and say that A-Rod will deflect all the media attention and let the other players go about their business and focus on baseball. I don’t think the circus surrounding him this year is going to affect the win total one way or another.

          • jjyank

            Neither do I. I’m skeptical about the concept in general, but even if it does have some impact generally speaking, the Yankees are a veteran team that is assuredly used to the spotlight. The attention isn’t a concern to me. All I care about is his health.

          • Ted Nelson

            Agreed. Especially while he’s not even playing.

            Could just as easily be used as a rallying cry, “us against the world,” as be a negative distraction.

            I’m also not ready to conclude A-Rod’s health and thereby production won’t improve once he comes back based on some POS article from the Daily News citing an anonymous source whose logic was, to paraphrase, “why would he want to play a game where no one likes him?”

  • Austin Aunelowitzky


  • Chuck M.

    I’m up to a 7 from a 6 last week, ironically BECAUSE of A-Rod’s PED issues. It’s not that I think they’ll get out of that albatross of a contract – they won’t, but it’s a nice thought – it’s that all of the fuss makes me batten down my internal hatches and grab on to the guys we have a little tighter. I don’t mind that we’ll be “underdogs” this season – it hasn’t been often that the Yankees can say that, and being an underdog is fun. Now, if my hometown Pittsburgh Pirates can fight for .500, it would be a doubly awesome season.

  • LarryM., Fl.

    I have been at 6 for some time. The Hafner signing was good. I believe he can do some damage in the stadium. As far as the organization, farm system and 40 man roster, my gut tells me better than it looks. ST may bring some surprises both good and bad but as of now. I’m looking at better than mediocre. We are retooling with some aged but prime beef. It good be a pleasant and awesome season.

    I can’t believe Arod is a victim of some manufactured hoax. His makeup as an athlete to perform at a top level tends to lend credence to the whole story. The DEA and MLB digging for answers could be more than some appointed commission getting to the bottom of this story.

  • Ryan G

    I am a 7 for this year based on a strong pitching staff to make one last run. Im a 2-3 for ’14 and beyond based on the large contracts that will continue to eat a large % of 189m.

  • Nice Guy Eddie

    Down to a 5…REALLY starting to doubt Arod makes it back at all this season. That means the Youkuh is the RH bat of note in this lineup.

    • Jersey Joe

      I wouldn’t have said ARod was a bat of note last year, especially in same lineup as Jeter.

      • Nice Guy Eddie

        and look what happened to the lineup down the stretch/in the playoffs when Arod’s presence disappeared.

    • Ted Nelson

      What had changed recently that makes you doubt he’ll make it back? Suspension? The Daily News article?

      Tex is a RH “bat of note.” Jeter crushes LHP, and some of their bench players and C should fair relatively well against LHP. Cano is not exactly shabby against LHP. Ichiro has a reverse split on his career. Gardner doesn’t have a huge split.

  • Jersey Joe

    Like the Hafner signing, but I wish they cut loose Z. Almonte instead of Canzler from 40 man.

    I don’t think Zolio was ever going to get a chance to play with Williams, Austin, Heathcott, etc., and I don’t think he would’ve been especially productive either. Canzler would’ve been a good cheap piece to have in 2014.

    As far as ARod goes, I hope we can take off at least $20 million of his contract. That extra $4 million per season could really be helpful somehow, as we’ve seen with Chavez, Ibanez, etc.

    • Ted Nelson

      Yankees have given Zoilo extended run in ST before, and he’s done will with it. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see him on the bench at some point soon.

      Calling Canzler good is sort of going out on a limb. I would say chances are he’s a AAAA player.

  • MannyGeee

    I mimic your snore, Mr Tills…

    and your baseline 7. Although the (albeit unlikely) potential of a healthy Pronk all season eating the short porch like a strawberry shortcake might bump me up to a 7.25…

  • Pat D

    I’m sure this will get a mention later today, but Keith Law ranked the Yankees’ farm system 10th overall.

  • Gordon m

    I’m still at a seven and have been since last year. The off season has been a bit disappointing, but the team should still be competitive this season and the farm system has some very promising prospects that I think we can all get excited about. If somehow through the season the team is really struggling then I’ll probably drop down to a six, but until then I’m sticking on seven.

  • Ted Nelson

    Still think that this is a top 3-6 org in MLB, so by my metric I can’t see voting less than a 9. I went with 10.

  • trr

    I’m feeling a little better as I read more and more optistic reports on the farm system. I an NOT one of those fans who feel the team must win every year; But I do feel a world renowned franchise such as ours should be constantly trying to improve. If that means focusing on the farm system, so be it…

    • Robinson Tilapia

      Incredibly fair assessment.

    • Havok9120

      I was very much encouraged by the addition of another rookie club. It’s not a huge expense, but it could pay dividends and it isn’t something the League is likely to slap us for.

      I’m excited to see what can be done with those picks.