Five Years Later: The 2008 Draft

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Pineda averaged 93 mph today; close to official rehab assignment

I think teams get a pretty good idea of what they have after three years, but the old saying says you need five years to evaluate a draft class. So, with the 2013 draft just two weeks away, it’s time to take a look back at the Yankees’ draft haul from June 2008. Unlike the 2007 draft, the team’s 2008 draft has been sneaky productive despite a high-profile first round blunder.

(AP)
(AP)

UCLA over NYY
Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer has been on the job since before the 2006 draft, and he has not drafted a single player better than RHP Gerrit Cole. Oppenheimer and the Yankees selected Cole with their first round pick back in 2008, making him the 28th overall selection. Keith Law (subs. req’d) and Baseball America ranked him as the tenth and 17th best prospect in the draft, respectively, but he slipped to New York due to signability concerns. Concerns that proved to be completely founded.

Despite declarations that he was a lifelong Yankees fan — and one very famous photo — Cole declined to sign with the team prior to the August 15th deadline and instead following through on his commitment to UCLA.

“We knew it was going to be a tough sign,” said Brian Cashman to Tyler Kepner in 2011, “but we also were told in pre-draft meetings with the family that he was willing to play pro ball and forgo college. We rolled the dice and took our chances. Everybody has a right to change their mind … We were right on the [talent] evaluation. There’s no doubt about that.”

Oppenheimer confirmed the team was prepared to offer Cole a far-above-slot $4M bonus, but they wouldn’t even listen to the offer. Cole wanted to attend UCLA, and it didn’t hurt that his family is wealthy and the money wasn’t truly life-changing. The Yankees lost out on their top pick, who went on to have three great years with the Bruins before being the first overall pick in the 2011 draft. The Pirates gave Cole an $8M bonus and he is now on the cusp of the big leagues. Before the season, Baseball America ranked him as the third best pitching prospect and sixth best overall prospect in the game.

I like to think that had the Yankees signed Cole, he would be in their rotation right now after debuting sometime during the 2011 season. I assume he would have been on the Phil Hughes timetable, meaning Low-A Charleston and High-A Tampa in year one, High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton in year two, Triple-A Scranton and the show in year three. Cole did make major strides with his changeup at UCLA though, the pitch that made him the first overall pick two drafts ago, and there’s no way to know if that would have happened had he signed. Either way, missing out on Cole was devastating.

(Mike Ashmore)
(Mike Ashmore)

Broken Down
The Yankees didn’t just fail to sign Cole, they also didn’t sign their second round pick either. RHP Scott Bittle out of Ole Miss had agreed to a contract, but a pre-signing physical found some wear and tear in his shoulder and the team backed out. Bittle returned to school and had a strong senior season, which led to the Cardinals taking him in the fourth round of the 2009 draft. He blew out his shoulder almost immediately after signing and has been out of baseball since 2011.

The Yankees did receive compensation picks for failing to sign Cole and Bittle, picks they used to draft OF Slade Heathcott and C J.R. Murphy in 2009. Those two are among their top prospects right now, but I would trade both for Cole and whatever is left of Bittle’s shoulder in a heartbeat.

Because failing to sign Cole and Bittle wasn’t enough, supplemental first round pick LHP Jeremy Bleich — the compensation pick for losing Luis Vizcaino to the Rockies — blew out his shoulder in May 2010 after an underwhelming 2010 campaign (4.86 ERA and 2.07 K/BB in 144.1 innings across two levels). He returned to action as a reliever last last year and currently owns a 3.32 ERA (3.71 FIP) in 21.2 innings for Double-A Trenton. Bleich is the fringiest of fringe prospects following surgery.

(Al Bello/Getty)
(Al Bello/Getty)

The Late-Round Success Story
As bad as the top three picks were, the Yankees did uncover a gem in RHP David Phelps (14th round). Phelps had a breakout sophomore year at Notre Dame but a disappointing junior/draft year, and the Yankees gambled $150k that they could get him back to his sophomore self. That happened almost immediately, as he flew through the minors in three years and never once posted an ERA over 3.00.

Phelps made the big league roster out of Spring Training as the long man last year, and he’s since pitched his way into the rotation and become a valuable member of the staff. In 142 innings split between 15 starts and 28 relief appearances, he has a 3.49 ERA and 4.12 FIP with New York. The Yankees struck gold with their 14th round pick and $150k investment.

Reached The Show
Phelps is not the only 2008 draftee to reach the show with the Yankees. In fact, IF David Adams (3rd round) is now the team’s everyday third baseman following the injuries to Kevin Youkilis and Alex Rodriguez. He’s performing very well and is playing his way onto the roster even when those two return. Adams missed an awful lot of time with injuries over the years, including a fractured ankle that cost him almost all of the 2010 and 2011 seasons, so his story is definitely one of perseverance.

In addition to Phelps and Adams, IF Corban Joseph (4), RHP Brett Marshall (6), and RHP D.J. Mitchell (10) have all reached the big leagues with the Bombers. Joseph and Marshall made their short-lived debuts within the last two weeks and are just up-and-down players at this point. Mitchell made four underwhelming appearances last summer before being traded to the Mariners for Ichiro Suzuki at the deadline. He’s since been released by Seattle and currently pitches in the Mets system.

(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)
(AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

The Other Late-Round Success Story
Turning a 14th round pick into a useful big leaguer is a pretty awesome accomplishment, but the Yankees also turned their 50th round selection — the 1,502nd of 1,504 total players drafted in 2008 — into a legitimate prospect. A commitment to BYU and impending two-year Mormon mission scared clubs away from Southern California prep LHP Nik Turley, but the Yankees convinced him to turn pro with a $150k bonus.

In the five years since, Turley has developed from a gangly and raw high school arm into the team’s top left-handed pitching prospect. He’s climbed the ladder slow and deliberately, but he earned a spot on the 40-man roster last winter by pitching to a 3.00 ERA (~3.39 FIP) in 117 innings split across High-A Tampa and Double-A Charleston. I ranked Turley as the team’s 11th best prospect a few weeks ago, and this year he owns a 4.46 ERA (4.39 FIP) with the Thunder. He should made his big league debut at some point next season, six years after being the third to last player picked in the draft.

The Other Unsigned Gems
Cole is obviously the headliner here, but the Yankees also failed to sign 36th rounder LHP Chris Dwyer. He turned the team down out of high school before signing with the Royals as a fourth rounder out of Clemson in 2009. He was a super-rare draft-eligible freshman. Dwyer had a huge 2010 season across two minor league levels and Baseball America ranked him as the game’s 83rd best prospect prior to the 2011 season. His performance went south in a hurry — 5.77 ERA and ~4.75 FIP in 277.1 innings from 2011-2012 — and he’s just a fringe prospect now.

(Justin Edmonds/Getty)
(Justin Edmonds/Getty)

RHP Rob Scahill (48) also passed on New York, instead returning to Bradley for his senior year. He was an eighth round pick of the Rockies in 2009, then climbed the minor league ladder in short order before debuting with Colorado as a September call-up last year. In 14 innings spread across eight relief appearances these last nine months, Scahill owns a 0.64 ERA and 2.86 FIP.

The Rest of the … Rest
The Yankees drafted 51 players in 2008, signing 34 of them. Of those 34, ten remain in the organization. Bleich, Adams, Joseph, Marshall, Phelps, and Turley are six of the ten. The other four are organizational players: C Kyle Higashioka (7), RHP Mikey O’Brien (9), IF Addison Maruszak (17), and SwP Pat Venditte (20).

Venditte is the most notable of the bunch because of the whole ambidextrous thing, but he currently recovering from right shoulder surgery. Higashioka is a strong defensive catcher who will miss the rest of the year following Tommy John surgery. O’Brien is having an okay year with High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton, and Maruszak is doing the same with Triple-A Scranton.

I have to mention somewhere that the Yankees traded RHP Andy Shive (35) to the Indians for Kerry Wood at the 2010 trade deadline. He was released following that season and has been out of baseball since. Wood, as you remember, was a valuable setup man for New York down the stretch that year.

* * *

Fair or not, the 2008 draft will be defined by the failure to sign Cole. He is one of the top pitching prospects in the game and could become on of the top pitchers in the world in relatively short order. Using a first round pick on that player and failing to sign him is a big kick to the gut.

Beyond Cole though, the Yankees have gotten one good big leaguer out of this draft in Phelps. Adams looks to be on his way to joining him in the “useful player” ranks while the book is still out on Joseph, Marshall, and Turley. Shive was useful in his own way. As much as losing out on Cole sucks, the Bombers have gotten some value from this draft class. Just not impact talent.

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Pineda averaged 93 mph today; close to official rehab assignment
  • pat

    Might be semantics, but I still don’t think it was a blunder to select Cole. If the talent were distributed linearly he’s taken Top 5 pretty easy and maybe even in the conversation for 1st overall. Unfortunately it didn’t work out, but they were given a protected compensation pick for our troubles. I make it 100 out of 100 times for that 1 time he changes his mind.

    • Reggie C.

      Boras wouldn’t have wasted his time “advising” the Cole family had Boras genuinely believed that Cole wasn’t signing. At some point, Cole and his folks made a personal family decision, and Boras was stuck with breaking bad news to the Yankees.

      At least that’s how I cope with the non-signing. I’m pretty sure a couple of my anti-Cole rants are archived when signing day came and went. That was a bad day on RAB.

      • Preston

        I don’t think Boras thinks it’s a waste to advise guys who don’t sign. He’s getting a leg up on other agents when they do sign. I’m sure the money for Cole going number one helped him with any disappointment for him not signing with the Yankees for significantly less 3 years earlier.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      I wouldn’t consider it a blunder either. He was a great talent at the time. They didn’t sign him, and tried their damndest to. It happens.

      Besides, BGDP.

  • Deathstroke Heathcott

    An elite draft haul, all because we got BGMFDP (Big Game Mother F***ing David Phelps) but I do wish we could’ve sold Cole on making the jump. I wonder if Cole regrets it at all from his point of view. No-brainer pick from the Yankees point of view, just a shame he was as unsignable as rumored.

  • Ed

    I have to mention somewhere that the Yankees traded RHP Andy Shive (35) to the Indians for Kerry Wood at the 2010 trade deadline. He was released following that season and has been out of baseball since. Wood, as you remember, was a valuable setup man for New York down the stretch that year.

    I’d just like to highlight that paragraph for the people who think we should trade Joba for prospects. That’s the sort of return you should expect.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      Yup. This deserves sticky status.

    • Steve (different one)

      Joba would net an Andy Shhhhhhive?

    • steves

      I guess you are all too young to remember Bob Sykes for Willie McGee and Dale Murray for Fred McGriff. Trading someone not in your plans for a sleeper prospect is ALWAYS worth a shot.

      • Preston

        Heathcliffe Slocumb for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe wasn’t a bad trade for the Red Sox either. That said, I do think teams are more properly valuing relievers nowadays and guarding their prospects more closely.

  • Preston

    Honestly that’s a really good draft when you consider that we didn’t sign our first or second rounder. I would also trade Heathcott and Murphy for Cole, but he hasn’t pitched well in AAA and many scouts have said that he has a pretty straight fastball and lacks the command to be a true number one. That and the high attrition of even the most elite pitching prospects make it so it’s not unreasonable to think Heathcott and Murphy might have more productive MLB careers.

  • Eddard

    I agree, BGDP was a diamond in the rough. And nobody wants to give this guy credit because he wasn’t a high draft pick. If Hughes was pitching to a 3.49 ERA everyone would say well that’s just what we need out of a #4 starter. Phelps does it and they can’t wait to rush Pineda up here to take his place. They keep putting a limit on Phelps of a #4/5 starter but maybe they should be putting that limit on Hughes instead.

    • Preston

      Do you realize that Phelps and Hughes are the same age? The reason they are regarded differently is that one has been pitching in the big leagues since before the other was drafted. They are both beyond the age when it is reasonable to expect significant developmental changes and they are both probably what they are at this point. Hughes has an elite fastball but has never had the command of his secondary pitches to live up to the hype. David Phelps is a polished guy, who uses four pitches effectively, but lacks the elite fastball to be a top of the rotation guy.

      • vicki

        spit in the ocean.

  • David

    Who might they have taken instead of Cole? anyone know or have a theory?

  • RetroRob

    This is the first time I’ve heard that the Cole family had told the Yankees he would sign for the right offer. Everything I’ve read seemed to indicate his father had run the numbers (no doubt with Boras serving as advisor) and that there was no way he’d sign and that no team should bother drafting him.

    The D.O. drafts have shown strength in the middle to later rounds. They’ve been weak up front, which I still think is by design with the Yankees pushing money down into the later rounds. Perhaps losing out on Cole caused the Yankees to rethink their strategy. If so, too bad. They should just use what they have over other teams — money. They could have signed the high-end players as well as the players who slipped through to the later rounds.

    • WSAnalyst

      Everything that I’ve read is that what you describe happened after he was drafted.

      I don’t really buy a change in strategy. They drafted the high upside, fairly expensive (under the new rules) HS arm again last season. Only a two season break of taking bats. Culver is not totally dissimilar as a pick from DO’s first pick: CJ Henry. Taking a HS true SS who isn’t a clear top 5 pick is just probably going to result in more busts than wins. The wins may or may not be enough to justify hoping an athlete turns into a ballplayer anyway.
      My take is that they just play the board and take who they want. The media draft boards aren’t of much value. For example take Giancarlo Stanton ranking in the 120s his draft year. People would be up-in-arms if the Yankees took him over Brackman yet it may have been one of the best picks in franchise history. Those lists are too historically inaccurate to have much of any predictive value. They’re fun to look at, but not a reason to bash a team who deviates from them. Too many examples of highly ranked guys busting and low ranked guys working out to do that.

      • vicki

        very sexy talk. i guess ninja was misled? had any other team swung, stupidly, for the fences and failed, struck out, noone would notice.

        i won’t exhale until cole busts. this dumb random obsession of too many casual fake yankee fans annoys me.

  • JobaWockeeZ

    Phelps is a great get. The FIP above is pretty much Hughes’ FIP as a starter. Which is a great for someone who never cracked a top 100.

  • Darren

    Cole’s family must be EXTREMELY wealthy, not just wealthy, to turn down $4mm guaranteed. It’s one thing for a free agent who’se proved himself to take a chance, it’s another foran 18 year old kid. Dayum! Ballz ‘o steel (and made of money).

  • WSAnalyst

    While it stings to miss out on Cole it’s great that MLB rules are such that you just get the pick back the next year

    Crazy that the Yankees drafted Cole and Gray

  • mike b

    Interesting when the time comes if Cash will pursue aggresively again when he becomes a FA