May
21

Game 45: Redemption

By
(Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

(Jonathan Daniel/Getty)

Phil Hughes didn’t just have the worst start of his career last time out, he had one of the worst starts by a Yankee this century. I guess the good news is there’s nowhere to go but up from a seven-run, two-out disaster like that. Hughes talked about getting on top of the ball and needing to better his fastball command these last four days, but the time for talking is over. Phil gets his shot at redemption against the division rival Orioles tonight, for a team that has won three straight against a team that has lost six straight. Here’s the lineup that will face fresh off the DL Miguel Gonzalez…

  1. CF Brett Gardner
  2. 2B Robinson Cano
  3. LF Vernon Wells
  4. DH Travis Hafner
  5. 1B Lyle Overbay
  6. RF Curtis Granderson
  7. 3B David Adams
  8. SS Jayson Nix
  9. C Austin Romine

And on the mound is the only Yankee to earn a win during the 2007 ALDS, right-hander Phil Hughes.

Summer’s coming. It’s warm and kinda humid in New York, so typical baseball weather. The game is scheduled to begin a little after 7pm ET and be seen on My9 locally and MLB Network nationally. Enjoy.

Injury Updates: Kevin Youkilis (back) had three at-bats today — I assume in a simulated game — and actually took some swings. He had been just standing in the box and tracking pitches until today … Joba Chamberlain (oblique) will pitch in a minor league game tomorrow, and the team plans on having him make two appearances before activating him off the DL … Mark Teixeira (wrist) got four more at-bats in a simulated game … Ivan Nova (triceps, back) threw several innings in a simulated game or Extended Spring Training game yesterday.

Categories : Game Threads

524 Comments»

  1. Robinson Tilapia says:

    For Prussia, as well as the new Daft Punk album.

    • vicki says:

      too divisive. take that second part back.

      • Robinson Tilapia says:

        No. We must feed the hype machine, and it’s pretty damn good.

        • dkidd says:

          live musicians!

          • Robinson Tilapia says:

            Yup, and a badass extended spoken intro by Giorgio Moroder on one track.

            I was listening to Moroder’s “E=MC2″ album from 1979 today. You’d be shocked to hear how similar some of it sounds to what artists like DP, M83, and Phoenix are doing today. They’re doing a tremendoes homage.

            • dkidd says:

              i saw “midnight express” in the theatre when i was WAY too young. still get goosebumps whenever i hear the score

            • trr says:

              One man’s homage is another man’s rip off

              • Robinson Tilapia says:

                “Nobody’s original anymore. We’re all thieves.” – Ozzy Osbourne, about 20 years ago at this point.

                Every time I think I hear something truly new and original, there was always someone else doing it before I hadn’t gotten to yet. It happens.

          • trr says:

            One man’s homage is another man’s rip off
            Check the new album by The National
            Excellent, and they rock live too!

        • vicki says:

          i strongly object. i’m not a fan. and phil is a metallica guy.

          by all means hype your house in a separate post. we are all united for prussia. not daft punk.

  2. trr says:

    Which Hughes will we get tonight? Gotta figure the O’s are due for a few breaks, so I’m thinking this’ll be a tough one tonight. Hope I’m proven wrong!

  3. dkidd says:

    the game phil won in the 2007 alds was notable for being the last time roger clemens pitched in the major leagues and the last game joe torre won as manager of the yankees

    the prussian eagle devours the helpless oriole!

  4. mt says:

    Interesting how Yanks will do against Gonzalez – only Yankee in lineup who has a hit off of him is Robinson Cano (from ESPN batter vs pitcher data – don’t think it takes playoffs into account)- others with hits are either on the DL like Jeter or are on bench like Ichiro.

    Hopefully he is rusty coming off of DL.

  5. Winter says:

    Huh. According to Baseball Reference, Hughes’s start was only the 11th worst for the Yankees this century (going by game score). Jeff Weaver’s 4 IP, 7 ER, 11 H outing was worse, but I can’t see the top 9 since I’m not a subscriber. If anyone else is, here’s the link: http://www.baseball-reference......sult_table::none

  6. Robinson Tilapia says:

    Reading Tim Dierkes’s chat from earlier today. Doesn’t think Hughes will get more than two years unless the ERA gets under 4.

    • Pat D says:

      Depends on if any teams realize his skill set might better translate to their park (San Fran, San Diego, Seattle).

  7. Dalek Jeter says:

    For Prussia

    Also, IMO this is the best starting 9 the Yankees can put together right now IMO, maybe with a tweak or two, and should be the line up on a regular basis, with Brignac being the BUI and Ichiro as the 4th OF.

  8. dkidd says:

    i look forward to every david adams at-bat

    prospects are fun!

  9. Eddard says:

    Hughes need a bounce back game. Phelps has surpassed him as #4. Nova is rehabbing to return and Pineda is waiting in the wings. Hughes will either lose his rotation spot or be traded mid-season. I think we have the makings of a good staff without him and might as well get what we can for him before he gets overpaid in FA.

  10. vicki says:

    kenny and flash.

  11. Get Phelps Up says:

    Singleton doing pbp = good
    Flaharty in the booth = bad

  12. Get Phelps Up says:

    Also it seems as if Extra Innings has finally started carrying My9 games!

  13. dkidd says:

    i wish i didn’t know how showalter got his nickname

  14. Dalek Jeter says:

    Can I please have a booth of Kenny, Coney, and Lieter/Pauly just once this season?

  15. Dalek Jeter says:

    Brett showing Oppo-power!!

  16. Get Phelps Up says:

    That should make Greg happy.

  17. The Real Greg says:

    That’s what I want to see. Drive the high ball, Brett.

  18. Dalek Jeter says:

    Wells really needs to stop chasing that ball low and off the plate away.

  19. Andy says:

    I don’t know if anyone is listening to the Orioles broadcast, but they are just awful

    • Winter says:

      I’ve found in the past that MASN isn’t terrible. Do you know who’s in the booth?

      • Andy says:

        Gary Thorne and some other guy. They aren’t actually that bad, I just overreacted to his annoying mannerism of saying “May 4″ instead of “May 4th”

  20. The Real Greg says:

    Needed that one out ago. They’re hitting him pretty hard so far.

  21. Dalek Jeter says:

    Pronk!!!

    love the 2 out RBI.

  22. Cy Pettitte says:

    Pronk! score first = win, right?

  23. The Real Greg says:

    Wonder if Casilla makes that play. Hafner with an RBI

  24. Karl Krawfid says:

    Pronk!

  25. Eddard says:

    Hafner’s heating up again!

  26. Winter says:

    There we go.

  27. dkidd says:

    knorp

  28. Dalek Jeter says:

    Wow…a foot either way and it’s 2nd and 3rd two outs…freaking BABIP gods.

  29. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Nice start. Let’s do it, 20-0

  30. dkidd says:

    who’s the most underrated player in baseball?

    i’ll go with paul goldschmidt

  31. Vern Sneaker says:

    Let’s go Phil! Let’s go Rangers!

  32. Eddard says:

    Fly Ball Phil got through the 1st!

  33. SDB says:

    What’s the over/under on how many innings it takes before Ma and Pa start bleating about Hughes’ pitch count?

    • Dalek Jeter says:

      I wasn’t even paying attention to it because I’m watching on TV for a change. How many did he throw in the first?

      If the answer is anymore than 15, before he records an out in the 2nd.

      • WhittakerWalt says:

        They’re too busy waxing rhapsodic about Gonzalez’ ability to move the ball around and “hit spawts.”

  34. Vintage says:

    I hope Phil has a great start today just to shut up this Orioles booth. Ugh.

  35. Pat D says:

    Has the “Granderson Is The Worst” bandwagon rolled out yet?

  36. Kramerica Industries says:

    Is there any particular reason why Michael Kay isn’t doing this game?

  37. Dalek Jeter says:

    Wow…talk about shading a dude up the middle.

  38. Troll says:

    There’s Kurtis, but where is Curtis?

  39. The Real Greg says:

    Adams isn’t fast either. That’s 6 hard hit balls against Gonzalez.

  40. Pat D says:

    Right, Flash. Nix will now enter into an equal platoon because of the arrival of Reid Brignac.

    Riiiiiiiiiiiiight.

  41. The Real Greg says:

    Nasty pitch.

  42. dkidd says:

    nix always seems to get to a full count

    …and then strike out

  43. The Real Greg says:

    Ump is not giving the outside corner to either pitcher

  44. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Phil has the fastball, slider and change…so far.

    • vicki says:

      he looks like 2011 post-DL phil; not a lot of K’s but plenty of weak contact (even in two-strike counts!).

  45. The Real Greg says:

    That’s 7 hard hit balls.

  46. dkidd says:

    randy levine is creepy

  47. Dalek Jeter says:

    Fuck Oriole middle infielders.

  48. Get Phelps Up says:

    Man It’s like the O’s have had Ciriaco at 2nd in this series.

  49. Eddard says:

    They need to stop hitting the ball at their 2nd basemen.

  50. Kramerica Industries says:

    I’m getting really tired of this smoke and mirrors Miguel Gonzalez bullshit.

  51. WhittakerWalt says:

    Was that swing as bad as it sounds?

  52. Mykey says:

    Unfortunately only following the gamecast. How does Hughes look?

  53. Dalek Jeter says:

    How is that a question that you can “take on” somebody with.

  54. Dalek Jeter says:

    Chris Fucking Dickerson.

  55. The Real Greg says:

    And here comes the Dickerson fan club

    • Dalek Jeter says:

      Just saying, he’s everything Ichiro is at this point in his career.

      • The Real Greg says:

        Then why hasn’t he gotten regular playing time? I mean EVER.

        • Dalek Jeter says:

          Ichiro shouldn’t get regular playing time at this point in his career.

          • The Real Greg says:

            That’s not the point.

            The point is, if Chris Dickerson is so good, why hasn’t he stuck with anybody?

            • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

              Nobody said Dickerson is so good. The comparison is with current Ichiro. That’s not a high bar to clear.

              • Mike Axisa says:

                I think Dickerson could be pretty good as a platoon OF. .270/.340/.420 with 15 homers, 15 steals, very good defense … 1.5-2.0 WAR basically.

                • Get Phelps Up says:

                  15 homers? That seems awfully high for a 31 year old who’s career average homers over 162 games is 7.

                • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

                  It doesn’t seem like baseball GM’s agree with that assessment.
                  He shouldn’t have any trouble at least matching Ichiro’s current level of production though.

            • Dalek Jeter says:

              Where did I say he was good? all I said was “Just saying, he is everything Ichiro is at this point in his career.” Infering both that I think at this point in their careers I think both are 4th outfielders, and that the Yankees needlessly overpaid for Ichiro when they had the ability to use Dickerson instead. You’re trying to twist my words into something they aren’t

        • vicki says:

          the point is ichiro shouldn’t anymore either.

        • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

          Why is Ichiro getting regular playing time now?

          He got about 300 PA’s with the Reds a few years ago, which is probably more than Ichiro should be getting at this point.

          • The Real Greg says:

            And he didn’t stay, did he?

            I’m not questioning whether Ichiro is better. They could have kept both. Replace Boesch with Dickerson.

            • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

              They couldn’t keep both. Dickerson didn’t have options. It makes 0 sense to carry 2 of the same player on the MLB roster.

      • Mike Axisa says:

        More. Dickerson actually walks once in a while.

      • SDB says:

        But he’s not accompanied by Sapporo beer ads on WCBS!

    • Troll says:

      You said this yesterday. New material, please.

  56. Kramerica Industries says:

    Requisite Hughes home run.

  57. SDB says:

    I miss Dickerson. If only he’d been around in April instead of Francisco.

  58. FEED.ME.MORE! says:

    I think Dickerson flipped the bird to Ichiro as he rounded 3rd…..

  59. WhittakerWalt says:

    “Phil Hughes literally has the ability to give up a homer to anybody.”

    I should have that printed up on business cards.

  60. Cuso says:

    Diss Chrickerson

  61. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Phlying Balls Phil is going to give up the HRs. Solo shot, no big deal. Suck it up, move forward.

  62. your mom says:

    “Phil Hughes literally has the no ability to give up a homer to anybody.”

  63. WhittakerWalt says:

    Exhale.

  64. Wheels says:

    Whew

  65. FEED.ME.MORE! says:

    Hughes got smacked that inning. Lucky to give up 1 run.

  66. Kramerica Industries says:

    Holy shit.

    Somebody tell Flash to stop trying to do play-by-play. I want to stick nails in my ears listening to that shit.

  67. Winter says:

    That was lucky. Jones just missed that.

  68. Pseudoyanks says:

    Choosing Bob Costas over Gary Thorne & Some Other Guy in the Orioles booth.

  69. Pseudoyanks says:

    Wellsy

  70. Dalek Jeter says:

    Eddie Murray?

  71. WhittakerWalt says:

    “I have no idea why people think Wells is going to come back to Earth”

    -John Sterling

    Gee, I don’t know. Because he hasn’t been this good in about 8 years?

  72. Dalek Jeter says:

    YEAH PRONK!!

  73. vicki says:

    pronklove

  74. Eddard says:

    Hafner is a monster right now. Hit one out, Overbay.

  75. Winter says:

    That was quick. :D

  76. Wheels says:

    Do something Curtis

  77. McLovin says:

    Let’s go Curtis!

  78. Get Phelps Up says:

    Is Vernon really a better Comeback Player candidate than Mo?

  79. Dalek Jeter says:

    Shutdown Inning please Phil.

  80. Dalek Jeter says:

    What the fuck? why did they cut to a guy cutting meat and why was there a mic out there?

  81. Dalek Jeter says:

    Whole lotta squeezing on that play.

  82. your mom says:

    Only Hughes can start a hiter 0-2 and then walk him.

  83. Get Phelps Up says:

    Wieters is older than I thought.

  84. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Phil gets a DP. Wow.

  85. Eddard says:

    He was safe by a mile. Awful call.

  86. Wheels says:

    Safe!!!

  87. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Safe.
    But can’t really complain after the blown calls yesterday.

  88. Winter says:

    Very close call. He was safe, but that’s incredibly close.

  89. Get Phelps Up says:

    Not such a great series for the 1B umps.

  90. Pat D says:

    These blown calls at first in this series are just a continuation from the Teixeira end of game play from last year.

  91. CountryClub says:

    Romine has had some bad luck the past couple nights. Hit some balls hard with nothing to show for it.

  92. The Real Greg says:

    We were talking about Miguel Gonzalez’s BABiP earlier

    Last year he had a BABiP of .261.

    This year it is at .283 which his higher but still below league average I think.

    • Pat D says:

      Then the discussion becomes is his low BABIP a skill or just luck. Probably need more than 2 years’ worth of data, though.

  93. Pseudoyanks says:

    Cashman Failed!

  94. Kramerica Industries says:

    Are you fucking kidding me Hughes?

  95. The Real Greg says:

    AND HERE THEY COME AGAIN

  96. Cy Pettitte says:

    are you fucking kidding me

  97. Eddard says:

    Of all the people to get beat by twice.

  98. Pat D says:

    Come on, Phil. That’s just borderline unacceptable.

  99. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    C-Dick.
    Embedded Yankees not doing their job this season.

  100. Karl Krawfid says:

    First Raul, no Dickerson.

    Hilarious.

  101. Wil Nieves #1 Fan says:

    #TooManyHomers – Phil Hughes

  102. Winter says:

    Dickerson showing us what Blue Jays fans must have felt like when Overbay came to town.

  103. Dalek Jeter says:

    Man…that Chris Dickerson is just useless. I’m so glad they got rid of him in favor of a guy like Ichiro. Ichiro is such a magician with the bat…meanwhile Dickerson has never had sustained success in the majors therefore there is no way he could have success in a platoon/back up role.

  104. Get Phelps Up says:

    Willie Mays Chris Dickerson

  105. Cuso says:

    Dickerson is officially NOT an Embedded Yankee™

    Dammit, need p&r beat me to it…

  106. jorge brosada says:

    C-Dick strikes again…damn him!

  107. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Dicked again huh Phil

  108. Eddard says:

    Larry gave Phil a tongue lashing. Get through 2 more innings with no more runs and let’s go to the pen.

  109. Cy Pettitte says:

    I would love to see what Orioles 7-8-9 hitters have hit against the Yankees since the beginning of 2012, it has to be at least .300

  110. Wheels says:

    Shit

  111. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Short leash please.

  112. The Real Greg says:

    Pen has been notified.

  113. Dalek Jeter says:

    God damnit Nixie.

  114. Winter says:

    Aw man, that would have made the highlight reel for sure.

  115. Eddard says:

    Jayson Nix professional ballplayer.

    • SDB says:

      He contributes something to the team, EVERY game he plays. Every game.

      (Ma, which team did you mean again?)

  116. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    wtf?????

    Professional Baseball Players should catch that.

  117. Dave says:

    Phil isn’t worth the $7m he is getting, never mind giving him a multi-year deal. Too many homers, too many walks, too many pitches. And screw the $13.3m qualifying offer just to get a draft pick. Rather have Phelps or Vidal.

  118. Cy Pettitte says:

    bet Phil implodes now

  119. Wheels says:

    That’s on Robbie

  120. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Nice play boys.

  121. The Real Greg says:

    By the way, I think Ichiro should be given a day of no criticism. Scored the game winning run last night has to get at least one night of reprieve.

  122. Kramerica Industries says:

    And I thought Nix could do no wrong.

  123. WhittakerWalt says:

    I go to take a whizz and this is what I come back to.

  124. Dan in Athens says:

    Under no circumstances should the Yankees extend Hughes. I can’t believe the talk of 5 and 60-70 million for a guy with an ERA closing on 5 for his career. And a fly ball pitcher in Yankee Stadium and vs. the AL East.

    • JonS says:

      I agree.

    • Dalek Jeter says:

      4.48 is closing in on 5?

      • Dalek Jeter says:

        Not saying they should/shouldn’t extend him (they shouldn’t at any more than 12 per) but come on, hyperbole isn’t how you make an argument.

        • Dan in Athens says:

          Not even at 5 million. His starter ERA is closing in on 5. Overall it is depressed by a great pen stretch. Replacement level starter.

            • Dan in Athens says:

              Gee Mike, since his WAR outside of the bullpen season is under 8 wins in nearly 5 years (mostly done in none half of one season) and a win over replacement is worth about 4 million, do the fucking math.

              • Mike Axisa says:

                When did replacement level become 1.6 WAR?

                • Dan in Athens says:

                  And you would pay a guy who racked up half of that in the bullpen and in three months 12-13 million a year? Even if he was a consistent 1.6, which his only twice over 150 innings and never 200 shows is a pipe dream, anyone paying more than 7 million is overpaying. Taking into account how the 1.6 has worked with inconsistency and injury, 5 million plus is a poor investment.

                  • Mike Axisa says:

                    Why are you bringing his (future) salary into a debate about his performance? You called him replacement level, and you’re wrong.

                    • Dan in Athens says:

                      Maybe because you have written multiple posts on this site claiming he is worth at least 12 million a year for 5 years and others with even more. His last three years have been pretty damn close to a replacement player. Additionally, since he throws way too many pitches and is hurt, you have to replace him with low leverage guys which further damages your team both in performance, burning the pen and roster moves.

                    • Mike Axisa says:

                      His last three years have been pretty damn close to a replacement player.

                      Except they haven’t. If you keep saying it, it won’t magically become true.

                      I’ve said that if he repeats his 2012 season in 2013, he’ll get Edwin Jackson money or thereabouts.

                      Salary is never commensurate with performance in baseball. The system doesn’t allow it.

          • Get Phelps Up says:

            His 2.3 and 2.5 fWARs in his two full seasons as a starter would disagree with that.

      • Dan in Athens says:

        Yes, when the 4.48 includes a 4.82 over the last three seasons that shows an upward trend, closing in on 5. The 3.03 year and bullpen are the outliers.

        • Dalek Jeter says:

          I didn’t realize we were picking and choosing. I went ahead and picked his full seasons as a starter, when he pitched to a 4.19 ERA.

          • Dan in Athens says:

            Cherry picking to not include the disastrous 6.6.4, this year or 2011? 4.75 is his starter number. Numbers don’t lie, but you sure as hell do.

            • Dalek Jeter says:

              Yes, I’m cherry picking a year in which he spent most of the year hurt, because we’re trying to figure out his actual value. let’s include this season though, because he is by all accounts healty and watch it bounce all the way up to..4.38

              • Dan in Athens says:

                Because eliminating injury concerns from a pitcher who has spent a good deal of time on the DL, plus has never thrown 200 innings in any season is an accurate and intelligent way to determine value going forward.

                • Dalek Jeter says:

                  And calling cherry picking on a year when he threw a total of 30 some-odd innings at the age of 22 is?

                  • Dan in Athens says:

                    No, I’m counting every inning, every dollar and every DL stint. When you count all stats, it isn’t cherry picking. Do you even know what that term means?

                    • Dalek Jeter says:

                      The 3.03 year and bullpen are the outliers.

                      your words.

                    • Dan in Athens says:

                      Well, I have advanced graduate studies in statistics and heteroskadacity. I used the overall number and showed why it was skewed in terms of leverage. So you can either take the stats classes or explain why decades of statistical analysis are wrong.

                    • Get Phelps Up says:

                      And yet you can’t even figure out what replacement level is. Ironic.

                    • Dalek Jeter says:

                      I don’t care if you’re a nobel loriate with advanced degrees from Harvard, MIT, Stanford, and a Rhodes Scholar. The numbers are this simple: he has a 7.2 fWAR over 5 seasons as a starter. So by definition he isn’t “replacement level.”

                    • Dan in Athens says:

                      Well, for two of the three years he has (including pace of this year) and average of less than 1 WAR. His 2013 has been no where close to 2012.

                      You keep thinking of his stats in a linear format. A true model of his performance would use a log or some type of exponential figure, to produce a more accurate model of expected performance. This along with factoring in the damage his does as a 5 or 6 and fly, plus injuries, would lead a rational statistician to believe he is approximately a 1 win above average performer going forward. That’s a lot closer to replacement level than 12-15 million.

                    • Mike Axisa says:

                      His 2013 has been no where close to 2012.

                      May 21, 2012: 5.23 ERA in 41.1 IP

                      May 21, 2013: 5.51 ERA in 47.1 IP

                      Difference is one run ever 35 innings or so.

                      This along with factoring in the damage his does as a 5 or 6 and fly, plus injuries, would lead a rational statistician to believe he is approximately a 1 win above average performer going forward.

                      You mean like the rational statisticians that put WAR together, the WAR that shows he’s not the 1 WAR player you pulled out of your ass?

                    • Dalek Jeter says:

                      So then decades of statistical evidence are wrong because they don’t fit your argument?

                    • Mike Axisa says:

                      Also, what the hell? Why is the quality of the reliever reflected on Hughes? That’s the team’s issue. I just just as easily say they’ll bring in an elite reliever and thus his value is closer to 2 WAR.

                      Doesn’t that sound silly?

                    • Dan in Athens says:

                      According to your analysis, a player that racked up 10 WAR in one year and then 4 years of 0 would be a 2 win player. Real stats show the leverage outlier should be minimized and the player is more likely a near replacement level player.

                      As for pulling out of my ass, what is more likely, Hughes will stray far from the mean like he did for 2 months last year or that he will stay close to overall statistical norms of his career? You seem to believe a 3.70 ERA or less going forward is likely, which would be against the mean. Fluke repeat themselves far less than overall performance.

                      If your analysis was correct, you’d believe Ichiro was going to hit .325/.370/.410 the last two months of the year because he did it last year. Yet, such an assumption isn’t anywhere in your work because it is a statistically invalid assumption. Claiming Hughes will automatically repeat an abnormal stretch is as silly as saying the same about Ichiro.

                      Use your stats consistently at least. I’d be happy to do a chat debate with you on regressions to the mean, leverage and non-linear analysis. The result would be the same. You are wrong.

            • Get Phelps Up says:

              Are you talking about his 2008 where he threw 34 innings as a 22 year old?

              • Dan in Athens says:

                Are you counting the year before or after?

                • Get Phelps Up says:

                  You said 6.6.4, which I assumed was talking about 2008 when he had a 6.62 ERA in 34 innings at age 22.

                  Excuse me for not thinking that is a strong argument against Phil.

  125. JonS says:

    The world is now ok because Hughes has bounced back…

  126. Dalek Jeter says:

    I love how people are shitting on Hughes as he’s K’ing a guy to pick up his infielder.

    • JonS says:

      Yes, because that changes everything…

      • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

        He’s given up 2 runs so far. That’s pretty good for a #4 starter, last I checked.

        • JonS says:

          Good enough for 5/60?

          • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

            I hope not from the Yankees.
            I think he has to finish strong to get that from someone else.
            I’m opposed to giving any #4 or #5 starter a long term deal, Hughes or anybody else.

    • WhittakerWalt says:

      It’s just never easy with Hughes.

      • Dalek Jeter says:

        It’s not, but the same people who claim he’s garbage are the ones that are holding him up to his prospect shine of almost a decade ago. He is what he is, a decent, middle to back end guy, who strikes guys out at a decent rate but gives up a few too many homers.

        • Dan in Athens says:

          4.75 ERA as a starter. As for a “few too many homers,” that’s like saying Pol Pot killed a “few too many Cambodians.”

          • Pat D says:

            Um, no. That’s not nearly the fucking case.

            Look, we get it you hate Hughes. To compare his homer tendency to genocide? That’s a bit much.

            • trr says:

              I’m leaving before the Hitler analogy

              • Dalek Jeter says:

                I think we’re pretty good about Godwin’s law here. Though Dan’s post comes very, needlessly close to that wall…therefore he loses a lot of merit to his argument.

                • Dan in Athens says:

                  I’ll repeat:

                  According to your analysis, a player that racked up 10 WAR in one year and then 4 years of 0 would be a 2 win player. Real stats show the leverage outlier should be minimized and the player is more likely a near replacement level player.

                  As for pulling out of my ass, what is more likely, Hughes will stray far from the mean like he did for 2 months last year or that he will stay close to overall statistical norms of his career? You seem to believe a 3.70 ERA or less going forward is likely, which would be against the mean. Fluke repeat themselves far less than overall performance.

                  If your analysis was correct, you’d believe Ichiro was going to hit .325/.370/.410 the last two months of the year because he did it last year. Yet, such an assumption isn’t anywhere in your work because it is a statistically invalid assumption. Claiming Hughes will automatically repeat an abnormal stretch is as silly as saying the same about Ichiro.

                  Use your stats consistently at least. I’d be happy to do a chat debate with you on regressions to the mean, leverage and non-linear analysis. The result would be the same. You are wrong.

                  • Pat D says:

                    But your comparison was still completely ludicrous there, bub.

                    • Dalek Jeter says:

                      Also yeah, you compared the surrendering of homers to genocide. You…you basically lose.

                    • Robinson Tilapia says:

                      As is the fact that all the dropping of credentials and whatnot still wouldn’t give him any real advantage in a baseball argument over, say, Eddard.

                  • Dalek Jeter says:

                    I wasn’t sure if you were talking to me or not, because you quoted Mike as often as me. I’m going to go one argument at a time:

                    ” a player that racked up 10 WAR in one year and then 4 years of 0 would be a 2 win player.” In response to my Phil is worth X amount of WAR over 5 years as a starter. How is that any different than you saying he has an ERA of X as a starter? We’re both taking the good with the bad. In this case ERA makes your argument because it covers his good years, and weights lesser years equally, while WAR for me covers his bad years because it puts more weight on season where he…you know pitched for all of them.

                    “Fluke repeat themselves far less than overall performance.” You mean months, or stretches, where Hughes or any pitcher for that matter, will pitch far higher than their career norms, like Hughes did both early last season and early this season?

                    “If your analysis was correct, you’d believe Ichiro was going to hit .325/.370/.410 the last two months of the year because he did it last year.” No, because things outside of past overall performance should be taken into account when judging what a player will be going forward. Including Age, performance in recent months/seasons, the efforts/results of players of similar skill sets at similar ages. Stat’s don’t happen in a vacuum, even though I wish they did from time to time.

                    • Dan in Athens says:

                      3 things. First, a joke about how many homer Hughes gives up doesn’t make it go away,

                      Second, again Hughes’ career belies linear stats. Even if you wanted a linear analysis, the OLS would put his future projected ERA around 4.75.

                      Third, Mike flat out used an example of Hughes through May from this and last year only and expected a similar result outside of his career norms. This is no different from claiming Ichiro will before better in the second half by a large margin, just because he did it last year.

                    • Pat D says:

                      First, a joke about how many homer Hughes gives up doesn’t make it go away

                      And just because you’re trying to make a joke doesn’t mean your feeble attempt at humor wasn’t completely tasteless and pathetic.

                      Stick to your statistics if you want to try and argue a point.

                    • Dalek Jeter says:

                      1st. A tactless joke about genocide is a tactless joke about genocide.

                      2nd. Why? because they disprove your argument? We hold every single player to the same statistical lines. Why is Phil different?

                      3rd. He used two similar situations to prove that players go through (sometimes prolonged) slumps only to wind up with career-norm stats at the end of the season.

  127. The Real Greg says:

    Very impressive by Hughes.

  128. Eddard says:

    Phil did good to get out of that and they should call it a night for him. Let’s beat them again pen vs pen.

  129. CountryClub says:

    Hell of a job by Phil. Nix cost him 8 pitches though. Looks like Claiborne for the 7th.

  130. Get Phelps Up says:

    2 runs in 5 innings is just awful.

  131. Dalek Jeter says:

    I let Phil start the 6th, but the second he gets in trouble, he get’s the hook.

  132. Winter says:

    Pre-integration era. Not ERA.

  133. Pat D says:

    It’s great that Col. Ruppert is finally being inducted to the HOF this year. Too bad he’s been dead since 1939.

  134. Eddard says:

    Can they hit the ball any harder right at people?

  135. Wheels says:

    C’mon Pronk, knock the cover off the ball

  136. Cy Pettitte says:

    They should try hitting the ball softer

  137. The Real Greg says:

    Gonzalez at 80 pitches through 6.

    He’s coming off the DL and is managed by a guy who took Freddy Garcia out with 66 pitches after 6 innings.

    I don’t know where this is going.

  138. Kramerica Industries says:

    Look at that: Miguel Gonzalez likely to pitch into the 7th, only 2 runs allowed.

    He’s been giving up rockets all game, but, still, getting shut down by this clown time and time again is seriously fucking annoying.

  139. dkidd says:

    romine passes the eye test in terms of framing

  140. Dalek Jeter says:

    6IP 2ER…god he is SO TERRIBLE!!! It pisses me off that he’s even on an MLB team!!!

  141. Eddard says:

    Alright, Phil had a nice bounce back game. Now it’s time to go into that elite bullpen. Phil will remain #5 starter for now.

  142. your mom says:

    So will Girardi let Phil face Dick?

  143. vicki says:

    for all the sturm und drang, a quality start.

  144. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Hughes’ line is not bad: 6 innings, 2 runs 5 hits, 5 K, 2 BB.

  145. CountryClub says:

    If Dickerson wasn’t coming up next, I’d send Hughes out for the 7th. But they can’t risk it unless the Yanks have a big inning here.

  146. Dalek Jeter says:

    FUCKING BABIP ALL FUCKING SERIES

  147. Eddard says:

    Jesus, they catch everything.

  148. CountryClub says:

    A lot of bad luck for the Yanks tonight. Nice play, though.

  149. dkidd says:

    this is a good game

  150. The Real Greg says:

    This is looking like a “Curse the BaBIP gods game)

  151. Rolling Doughnut says:

    O’s D is just fucking awesome.

  152. Winter says:

    Boone Logan: resident LNOGY

  153. your mom says:

    Sit down Dick.

  154. CountryClub says:

    Well, it looks like Kelly has jumped back in front of Claiborne in the pecking order.

  155. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Put him away Boonie no Dicking around.

  156. Dalek Jeter says:

    I don’t understand why Logan is constantly allowed to face RHH when guys like Claiborne and Kelley, and when he’s healthy Joba are in the bullpen.

  157. Pat D says:

    Naturally he gets that call right.

  158. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    Blah, didn’t the same thing happen recently with CC on the mound?

  159. Eddard says:

    Another call goes against the Yanks. This just isn’t our night and yet they still have a chance to win.

  160. Winter says:

    Yamalco Fucking Navarro.

  161. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Cano would have been out by three feet

  162. Wheels says:

    Take your time Lyle, jesus

  163. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Sure. NOW the first base umpire gets a call right.

  164. CountryClub says:

    Overbay makes some questionable decisions at first. Too lackadaisical there.

  165. Eddard says:

    Ok, that’s enough of Booney. Bring in the righty to face Machado.

  166. Winter says:

    Shawn “K”elly?

  167. your mom says:

    Well, that was fast.

  168. Dalek Jeter says:

    Okay guys, let’s score some runs please?

  169. JonS says:

    The next time Hughes as a typical start (which this is not), I want those who defend him to speak up.

    • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

      His bad starts aren’t typical either.

      He’s given up 2 runs or fewer in 28 of his last 52 starts (about 54%).
      This kind of start is more typical than the others.

  170. JonS says:

    I noticed that Robertson didn’t shake Jones’ hand.

    #Drama

  171. The Real Greg says:

    Tommy Hunter and Brian Matusz lights out in the pen. Part of Buck’s magic.

  172. SeventhAce says:

    HAH! Johnson is up.

  173. SeventhAce says:

    That curve ball had such a tight break and crazy spin.

  174. Wheels says:

    DRob.

  175. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    Nice job D-Rob.

  176. Eddard says:

    Their heart of the order strikes out 1-2-3. Wells, Hafner and Overbay against struggling Johnson to win.

  177. Rolling Doughnut says:

    DRob nasssty

  178. The Real Greg says:

    No they kept Hunter in.

  179. dkidd says:

    they have dick but we own their johnson!

    just get us to johnson…

  180. your mom says:

    Need some Pronk magic again.

  181. Pseudoyanks says:

    Icewater Adams.

  182. JonS says:

    I am nowhere near a baseball scout or event analyst, but I don’t see the subpar defensive ability of Adams.

    • Dalek Jeter says:

      He has been very impressive. I guess it’s one of those cases, like when Cano came up, everybody said he could field well enough but they weren’t sure he could hit well enough to stick…then for the first few seasons here everybody was wondering if he could field enough for 2nd base in the big leagues.

  183. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Kinda deep for Dick no?

  184. Wheels says:

    Extra innings boys

  185. your mom says:

    Impressive.

  186. JonS says:

    I’m so happy the AAA crew is doing so well.

  187. Eddard says:

    They really have played a lot of close ballgames the last two years.

  188. Leg-End says:

    Johnson is gonna lose it again.

  189. The Real Greg says:

    Not our night. That keeps happening.

  190. Robinson Tilapia says:

    I won’t lie. I don’t have the energy for extra innings anymore.

  191. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Johnson’s rather lucky tonight

  192. Dalek Jeter says:

    I’m pretty sure that the Orioles have like 27 fielders out there.

  193. Kramerica Industries says:

    This offense is so fucking bad.

  194. Get Phelps Up says:

    Fucking Ortiz breaks up Quintanas no hitter.

  195. dkidd says:

    nuno-machado match up is a little scary

  196. Pat D says:

    Well that was fucking fantastic.

  197. Winter says:

    DO NOT MENTION THAT PITCHER. EVER.

  198. Dalek Jeter says:

    Nate Fucking Mclouth? Really Freaking Nuno man…

  199. The Real Greg says:

    This game was decided from the get go.

    Yankees were never going to win it.

  200. your mom says:

    Fuck McLouth and the Orioles.

  201. Leg-End says:

    Ah well onto the next one. The way the balls went tonight, was always gonna be a tough one to win.

  202. Karl Krawfid says:

    Called that :(

    Blame Hughes.

  203. Eddard says:

    Beaten by 3 HRs hit by Nate McClouth and Chris Dickerson. If that isn’t baseball I don’t know what is.

  204. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    I really hate Mclouth, he’s annoyingly good against us. Fuck the pigeons.

  205. Wheels says:

    Oh well

  206. Rolling Doughnut says:

    Well that’s no good.

  207. Improbable Island's Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR) says:

    For some reason I feel like this loss sucked way more than yesterday’s win.

    I know people are going to say that this is a typical/expected response. But fuck it, it’s how I feel about it.

    • Robinson Tilapia says:

      Tomorrow will either be better or worse.

      • Pat D says:

        The Yankees will either win or lose.

      • Improbable Island's Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR) says:

        Statistics show that the game will most likely not be exactly the same. The odds are overwhelming. Research is being done to figure out if the correlation between a new game and different occurrences during the game is merely coincidental or if there is in fact a relationship. The jury is still out.

    • Improbable Island's Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR) says:

      …Yesterday’s win was awesome, of course.

      Possibly because I feel as if we stole one yesterday but really should have won this game.

    • The Real Greg says:

      The reason is because it seemed that the Yankees were never going to win this game. They were never going to.

      Everything was against them. Umps, Players, BABiP Gods.

  208. Robinson Tilapia says:

    Meh. One of these was bound to happen eventually.

  209. Dalek Jeter says:

    It’s because Kenny invoked the name of The-Pitcher-Whose-Name-We-Do-Not-Speak.

  210. Get Phelps Up says:

    Tomorrow is Hirok Day.

  211. Mickey Scheister says:

    DFA Nuno please. The good news he can still start if we need him too.

  212. Robinson Tilapia says:

    The worst part of this loss? Completely wasted a game thread in which a guy claimed having advanced graduate studies in statistics and heteroskadacity.

    Like that last one’s even a word, or something.

  213. Cy Pettitte says:

    Vidal Nuno is the Jorge Vazquez of pitchers.

  214. Pat D says:

    Well, stick a fucking fork in the Rangers.

  215. Cuso says:

    Dang. 19-1 when we score first.

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