Nova feels no pain in triceps, begins playing catch

Game 29: Matinee
Saturday Night Open Thread

Right-hander Ivan Nova played catch today for what I believe is the first time since being placed on the DL with triceps inflammation last week. He said he still feels some tightness in triceps, but no pain. Like every other injured Yankee, he will head to Tampa next week while the team leaves for their road trip.

Nova, 26, has been awful in four starts this year, posting a 6.48 ERA and 3.60 FIP in 16.2 innings. There’s certainly a chance the struggles may be related to the injury, ditto his second half trouble last year (7.05 ERA and 5.06 FIP). Remember he missed about three weeks with shoulder inflammation. The bottom line is the Yankees need Nova healthy because he can’t work on things and improve if he can’t get on a mound.

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Game 29: Matinee
Saturday Night Open Thread
  • deadrody

    So are we posting FIP just for fun ? Or are we going to acknowledge that a 3.60 FIP is hardly “awful” ?

    Just curious which it is.

    • http://www.riveraveblues.com Mike Axisa

      The peripherals were good last year too, but they only mean so much.

      • OldYanksFan

        “Fielding Independent Pitching converts a pitcher’s three true outcomes into an earned run average-like number.
        The formula is: ((13*HR) + (3*BB) – (2*K))/IP, plus a constant (usually around 3.2) to put it on the same scale as earned run average.”

        So…. it is a theoretical number based on HRs, BBs and Ks.

        Tell me if I did this right.

        I pitch 9 innings, giving up 3 singles per IP, 27 for the game. I Walk 2 and K 9, while giving up 12 runs.

        ((0*13) + (3+2) – (2*9))/9 = -1.333: (-1.333 + 3.2) = 1.867
        My FIP = 1.87, My ERA = 12.00

        ———————————————-
        I pitch 9 innings, giving up 3 solo HRs for the game.
        I Walk 2 and K 9, while giving up 12 runs.

        ((3*13) + (3+2) – (2*9))/9 = 3: (3 + 3.2) = 6.20
        My FIP = 6.20, My ERA = 3.00

  • Joel Skinner

    If u think that nova has not been awful since last yrs all star break then you are too loyal to the sabremetrics stuff.

    • jjyank

      I don’t think it’s a question of “loyalty” to sabermetrics, just a failure of context. Nova’s FIP looks good, and perhaps that means there is some correction coming with his ERA, but the results are the results. Nobody will argue that. I believe in using FIP as an indicator of future performance (to an extent) more so than an evaluation tool of the past.

      • ROBTEN

        Like any stats, no one stat explains everything. Every stat has to be put into context.

        For example, over the past three years, based upon Nova’s peripherals, the expected stats show what should be an improving young pitcher. For instance, SIERA over the past three years–4.29, 3.84, 3.75.

        However, over the same period, Nova’s ERA has gone from 3.70 to 5.02 to 6.48.

        So, is this an indictment of sabermetrics? A fluke?

        Well, to answer we need to look deeper. Nova’s BABIP is also rising over the same time–.283, .331, .449–at the same time his strikeout rate is also climbing–5.33, 8.08, 9.72.

        This would seem to indicate that while something is improving, something is also declining.

        So, then let’s look at his Pf/x:

        Over the past three years, Nova’s been using his fastball less and his curveball more. As we can see, this is generally a good idea because against his fastball, opponents have turned into the greatest hitter of all time.

        Opponents have gone from .266/.341/.394 against the fastball in 2011 to .339/.417/.584 in 2012 to .519/.581/.630 this year!

        At the same time, the curveball has remained relatively stable–.223/.242/.314 (2011), .166/.210/.306 (2012), .200/.350/.200 (2013)–though OBP has jumped this year.

        Given the way opponents have crushed Nova’s fastball, it would not be surprising to find out that he’s actually had a slight uptick in fastball use this year compared to last year.

        So, basically, what the stats show is that someone with Nova’s peripherals *should* be better, that his “stuff” is able to strike people out, but that he’s essentially not really fooling anyone anymore with the fastball.

      • vicki

        exactly.

        plus the metric isn’t terribly useful after 16.2ip; he statpadded against the dbacks. and by definition it doesn’t address balls in play, and therefore doesn’t discern between routine grounders, which nova doesn’t induce like he once did, and absolute rockets, which we’ve seen too much of. and i don’t mean just lately.

        gotta watch the games.

        • Laz

          But at one point we should expect it to even out.
          Should be some middle ground between absolute rockets and no contact.

  • mj

    just a random question does anyone know if that guy rodriguez or reyes that the yanks signed over a year ago ever got their visas?

  • JonS

    If the injury last year was a problem and the entire rest of the offseason didn’t help, why would 15 days do anything?