Fan Confidence Poll: June 24th, 2013

Bullpen can't pick up Nova in 3-1 loss to Rays
NYDN: A-Rod cleared to begin rehab games on July 1st

Record Last Week: 3-3 (23 RS, 28 RA)
Season Record: 41-34 (293 RS, 294 RA, 37-38 pythag. record), 2.5 games back in AL East
Opponents This Week: Mon. OFF, vs. Rangers (three games, Tues. to Thurs.), @ Orioles (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

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Bullpen can't pick up Nova in 3-1 loss to Rays
NYDN: A-Rod cleared to begin rehab games on July 1st
  • PFOJ

    I gave them an 8, but Zoilo is responsible for 7 of that.

  • Robinson Tilapia

    7. No real reason, honestly.

    I was at a 6 last week. Watching Zoilo has been fun. I like the influx of new names when I read DOTF. I like Pineda rehabbing and Alex being a week away from rehabbing. I guess that’s all worth a point. Other than that, my opinion of where we are, where we’ve been, and where we’re going hasn’t changed a whole lot. Still going to need the big boy pants if you’re a fan this season and next.

  • trr

    Still at 6.
    So many questions…can we hang on for another 30 days with this line up? And will the return of the injured prove helpful? Or will they quickly reinjure themselves, or simply prove little better than what we have?

    It will be interesting, if nothing else

    • Robinson Tilapia

      I think it’s downright amazing that five games separates first from last place right now.

      Doesn’t really change how I feel moving forward, but definitely makes me proud of how this team has downright sludged through at times.

      • Jim Is Bored

        Before the season I suggested all 5 teams could be above .500 at the all star break. I’ll have to find the thread, because there were people who called me an idiot, shortsighted, had no concept of baseball history, was over-rating the yankees, etc.

        Blind squirrel finds a nut, I guess.

        • MannyGeee

          Jim Is Holding a Grudge…

          Playin, but of course haters will always hate. Welcome to the Interwebs. “Fish Face” would agree, I would assume…

        • trr

          Not at all….I predicted the whole division would finish with between 80-87 wins. I’ll hold to that

          • Jim Is Bored

            Yeah I mean it probably wasn’t regulars. But every once in a while it’s nice to be a dick to the trolls.

            This division is just so damn even. Everyone’s got a flaw.

            • LK

              As much as it pains me to say it, Boston looks pretty solid top-to-bottom so far. Good offense, above average defense (per UZR), above average baserunning, above average starting pitching, above average bullpen. I’m not sure they’ll keep it up, but they haven’t really demonstrated any flaws so far the way the other teams have.

              • Jim Is Bored

                Above average middle relief, but the back end has been awful.

                And Lester has been dreadful as of late, and Buchholz has been hurt. They still have question marks.

                • LK

                  Oh they definitely have question marks. I was just pointing out that to this point they’ve been above average in every meaningful phase of the game. That’s not something you can say about the rest of the teams in the division.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          NO, JIM.

          You are supposed to come back on here, tell us all how right you were, cut and paste comments from six months ago, and then plant your seed all over the keyboard.

  • Jim Is Bored

    7, same as I’ve been most of the year.

  • VaYankeeFan

    Had to go with a five! This Yankees team is a mess. I’ve been a fan since the daya of Mantle & Maris. Try as I may, I can’t get excited about this team!

  • Eddard

    9.5 , 10 if they make the following moves –

    1. Put Ivan Nova in the rotation and send Phil Hughes down to the pen to be the 7th inning guy. This would give us a starter in the rotation with put away pitches and hopefully Phil can capture some of his 09 magic in the pen. That would lock down 7-8-9 and eliminate the need for Joba and Logan.

    2. Move Zolio Almonte up to the 2 hole so that he doesn’t hit a lead off double only to have the 3 stooges strand him at 2nd. Gardner, Zolio, Cano would be a great 1-2-3 punch at the top of the order. Ride the hot hand.

    3. Send David Adams down to AAA and call up Mustelier as soon as he’s healthy. Musty doesn’t even have to do much since Adams has set the bar so low.

    There’s not much else that can be done with the lineup. Hafner and Overbay are not producing at 4-5 but there’s nobody else to put in their place. The have to ride the hot hands and rely on the pitch to get them through for another month and I think they can do it.

    • Jim Is Bored

      Eddard,

      What would your confidence be if the Yankees were in 1st place by 10 games with the best minor league system in baseball?

      A 30?

      • Eddard

        I did go as high as 11 last year so that would probably be my limit. You don’t want to get too absurd or people will stop taking you seriously.

        • Jim Is Bored

          This might be my favorite RAB comment ever.

          • TomH

            It’s certainly in the hunt for that honor.

        • MannyGeee

          All of this is TOTALLY logical in EddardWorld, mind you…

          • Sweet Dick Willie

            Logic and EddardWorld should never be used in the same sentence.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          You are a master shit-stirrer, sir. I’m almost disappointed when you let the guard down every now and then.

        • Dalek Jeter

          Eddard, if you want to find the too absurd line, turn around and grab a pair of really strong binoculars and you might be able to see it.

    • MannyGeee

      The King of Small Sample Sizes, ladies and gentlemen… If i had more time or gave more of a shit, I would go out to the ether and find the days where Eddard informed us that 1) Ivan Nova was garbage, 2) David Adams was just what we needed, 3) Joba was a boss…

      • Cool Lester Smooth

        I love Eddard. He’s a pitch-perfect parody of everything wrong with Yankees fans.

    • JohnnyC

      At some point, the adolescent mind comes to the realization that others around him are simply ignoring his or her desperate and increasingly ludicrous cries for attention. Whenever you come to that realization Eddard, just give us a holler. Then go away.

  • mitch

    I remain at a 6. Another week has passed and they haven’t lost any ground. I’m still worried they’ll lose too much ground before a couple reinforcements arrive. Bringing in a right-handed bat shouldn’t be too difficult. Willingham and Rios would be my first targets. Morse or Hart would be fits, but they’re injured. I’d even settle for someone like Justin Maxwell.

  • MannyGeee

    Baseline 7, I can’t argue that this team seems somewhere between mediocre and lifeless at points this season, but then games like Saturday happen and it makes you feel like this team can run over you at any time.

    I am so disappointingly excited to see that A-Rod is on the mend. I didn’t think he’d be needed as bad as he has.

    Also, King Zolio, mutherfuckers.

    • mitch

      Zoilo is 3rd amongst position players in season-to-date fWAR at 0.6 (tied with Cervelli)

      • MannyGeee

        From the EddardWorld School of Sample Size Analysis

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Is this sarcasm?

        • Pat D

          Warning: you may want to avert your eyes, lest suffer the fate of the Nazis in Raiders of the Lost Ark.

          http://www.fangraphs.com/leade.....;players=0

          • Robinson Tilapia

            Citing fWAR for fourteen at-bats as if it means something. If this isn’t a reason to bludgeon Bill James until he apologizes, I don’t know what is.

            I guess we should include Al Gore in the bludgeoning for inventing the internet.

            • Robinson Tilapia

              (but I still think it was sarcasm)

            • Jim Is Bored

              I mean fWAR is cumulative. So all it’s saying is in his (brief) playing time, he’s been worth .6 wins more than a replacement player. I think that’s probably pretty accurate.

              It’s sadder that the rest of our lineup non-cano or gardner division haven’t done that.

              Of course Z man hasn’t had an opportunity to play long enough to have a stretch below replacement level.

              • Robinson Tilapia

                Baby steps.

                Like really preemie baby steps.

            • Jim Is Bored

              I guess what I’m trying to say is we could find a 14 at bat sample of mostly anyone on the team that was worth ~.6 fWAR.

            • Pat D

              It’s still interesting, extremely SSS or not.

              I mean, it’s a cumulative stat so it’s obviously going to change.

              It also does give an indication as to how bad the rest of the lineup has been.

              • Robinson Tilapia

                You have a kid who came up a few days ago who’s been red hot while the rest of the team hasn’t.

                He came up because the regular guy at the position has been playing like shit for the majority of the decade outside of one month.

                Fun? Sure. Interesting to look at relative fWAR about it? Not so sure.

                Let’s see how he adjusts to the league adjusting to him.

                I wonder how much Maas and Spencer were worth during their moment in the sun…not that I’m comparing Zoilo to them.

                • Pat D

                  For some strange reason your third paragraph brought this scene to mind:

                  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byW49j2YSjE

                  • Robinson Tilapia

                    At work. State blocks YouTube. What is it?

                    • Pat D

                      Clip from Gremlins 2 where the Brainy Gremlin shoots another one and says, “Now was that civilized? Of course not. Fun, yes, but in no way civilized.”

                • LK

                  I don’t think he cited the stat saying that Zoilo was going to keep this up (he obviously won’t), but instead to highlight that the rest of the team has been so putrid that a hot week qualifies you as the 3rd best position player.

                  • LK

                    Along the same lines:

                    Yankee position players have been worth 4.0 fWAR. 5 players have been worth more than that by themselves (Trout, Gomez, Longo, Davis, and Miggy).

                  • mitch

                    Exactly. I just thought it was interesting stat. Don’t read into it any more than that.

                    • Robinson Tilapia

                      But we’re so good at doing that. Why stop?

          • TheEvilUmpire

            Brett Gardner is the Yankee leader in WAR?!?!?!?!?! It burns!!!!! It burns!!!!!!

            *face melting into goo*

  • TomH

    4.

    The trend of this team is bad. Perhaps it will improve with the return of the now-disabled, but I’m increasingly skeptical of any great offensive difference they will make.

    Jeter’s injury + age = bad news.

    ARod is likely to be Seliged.

    Teixeira: another nasty injury. Cortisone seems a band-aid response given the violence of a power-hitter’s swing.

    The only guy possibly able to make a big difference is Granderson.

    Cervelli? Nunez? Small change–that may be too hard re Cervelli. We’ll have to see. The world lay all before Nunez, but he muffed his chance (well before the injury).

    In short, I suspect that Reyes’ return to the Jays will put them over the top in the East. The Division may well include all .500 teams, but the Jays are now assuming dominance (but the Tigers will growl and eat them).

    What about Pineda? I have no idea how he’ll be under live fire. If he’s good, it may make a difference: but only IF Pettitte recovers form and if CC doesn’t regress from his present up-and-down pattern. However, if Pineda returns with some spark, it may be possible to banish Hughes to the pen, where he may be able to make more effective use of his modest gifts.

    I include in my evaluation The Future too. I have no confidence in Hal.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      SHAWN KELLEY. BOOO!

    • The Other Sam

      Yep 4…for the Hal effect.

    • MannyGeee

      I actually think Reyes’ return is the opposite of a spark plug. I actually think his presence in a lineup makes players around him worse. Maybe he’s a malcontent, maybe he’s a bad teammate. But he doesn’t bring up the guys around him, and he’s never played on a winner with all the talent in the world around him. he never has.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Do they sing that stupid song up in Toronto as well?

      • LK

        How is he supposed to bring up the guys around him?

      • Cacique

        This is the dumbest thing I’ve read today, sorry to be so blunt but it’s true. He never played on a winner because prior to this, he was stuck on the Mets, you stunad. They put some competitive teams out there up until 2009 and he was a huge contributor. He doesn’t steal bases like he once did, but he’s a great hitter when healthy.

    • Frank

      Excellent post. Right on point. I’m just a tad more confident- 5.

    • OhioYanks

      Better put on your helmets and watch for falling pieces of sky! Nothing can go right, only negative deviations from expectations are possible!

      • TomH

        All stories, taken far enough, end in death.

        • OhioYanks

          Hard to argue that a poll based on the current roster, farm system, and management is looking that far out. So, it’s about as logical to say that as it would be for me to say that they can’t lose tonight so I vote 10.

          • TomH

            You’ve missed the point. Sense of humor failure.

            I was responding to the “negative deviations” metaphor you offered as if you were writing about the behavior of the ittie bittie particles in quantum mechanics–rather than about people who are playing a game and are able to rise above or fall below their abilities, based on their desire, heart, courage, innate drive–or lack of these virtues.

            The other day someone accused me of some heresy apropos the “bell curve.” All this hope placed in statistics!

            • OhioYanks

              I know nothing about quantum particles. Are you really arguing that because baseball players are humans they can only perform worse than expectations and cannot perform better?

              Try to have some idea what statistics is before you mock it.

              • TomH

                You’re having a problem. Of COURSE I’m not “arguing that because baseball players are humans they can only perform worse than expectations and cannot perform better?” How on earth do you come to such a preposterous conclusion from anything I’ve said in this exchange? Don’t assume that your reliance on statistics is (1) a sign of logic or (2) evidence that you can interpret a text. Go back and reread, more carefully, and see if you can make out the point.

                • OhioYanks

                  Do you have any idea what I mean when I say “negative deviations from expectations?” The way this conversation is going it certainly doesn’t seem that you do.

  • Pat D

    Holding steady at a 6.

  • Kosmo

    SS, 3B, RF need to be addressed. I´d add C and 1B but one can´t be to greedy. Seriously folks.

    Some say pitching will continue to carry the offense but IMO this is becoming less likely. Kuroda has been the only consistent SP this year.

    Yankee FO need to, if they haven´t begun already, get off their collective butts and make a couple of moves.

    Right now NY is a no better than a .500 club.

    Almonte looks good. Hafner does not. Adams ??

    I´m at a 6
    my confidence in this team is beginning to lag.

  • Pat D

    So I’m seeing reports that ARod is going to begin playing games starting next week.

    Let the fun begin!

    • Robinson Tilapia

      Cashman failed, er, just denied it.

    • Jim Is Bored

      Any upgrade at 3B is welcome to me. Headaches or no.

      I’m actually excited for him to get back.

  • CountryClub

    Not surprising, but Teix might be done for the yr….

    http://espn.go.com/new-york/ml.....es-gm-says

    • Robinson Tilapia

      Lovely.

    • Pat D

      Man, fuck the WBC.

      Such a waste of fucking time.

      • LK

        Didn’t he hurt it taking batting practice? I don’t think we can blame the WBC for this.

        • Pat D

          Sure I can.

          It happened while he was at WBC batting practice.

          Obviously there’s no assurance it wouldn’t have happened in Yankees camp, but I have an irrational dislike of the WBC in all its forms, so if something happened in connection with it, I’ll be irrational and blame it on the WBC itself.

          The workings of the irrational mind, you know.

          • LK

            As long as you’re willing to admit it’s irrational, blame away!

    • LarryM Fl

      It was just matter of time. Now the surgery is next. Long term contracts are problematic when guys hit the magic age of 30. It maybe better to buy the control years and then some. This way the player can walk after his prime.

      If I were the Yankees and I’m not. Cano would be offered a lucrative short term contract of no more than 5 years at 125 million. What kind of team will the Yankees put on the field to compliment Cano in the next few years. Not much IMHO.

  • CS Yankee

    6

    If the stars ever align (or return) this could be epic, not feeling great about the next weeks games though.

    Wang is off to a great start in Toronto, Reyes could add to their streak as well…seems like if the Rays get the pitching and pen healthy (Price, Cobb)together they could be a threat…O’s seem to be going through a rough patch but have good and young bats…Saux might be the least injured, most complete team to date…if the Yankees get away from their 3rd stringers on the left-side of the infield and replace them with ’09 versions of Arod/Jeet, they should be able to pull away from the pack.

    I’m four healthy bats (Arod, Jeet, Teix & Grandy) away from an 8.

    • LK

      Yeah, the ’09 versions of Jeter and A-Rod aren’t coming back.

    • OhioYanks

      While I don’t expect all four of those guys to come back fully productive, I do think that if 2-3 do they can also expect more going forward from some of their slumping guys who have underperformed expectations recently (Hafner, Wells, Hughes, Adams, Romine, Nunez when healthy…)plus there’s also Cervelli and Pineda potentially coming back.

  • LarryM Fl

    6.1 up from 6 (joke). I enjoyed Zoilo. He played the field with ease and swung the bat well from the leftside.

    I believe as Mr. Sherman wrote in has article that the Yankees would be better off trying to trade Joba and Hughes for some RH bats (players) or decent prospects. Joba has clearly pitched to mediocre levels at best. Hughes is mediocre at best in the Bronx. Give him 15 starts in a pitchers ballpark, he will do fine or move to the bullpen until the season ends.

    The Yankees are giving Adams a shot to make the club. Unfortunately, he is determined to undermine his opportunity by not hitting. With Zoilo maybe Wells will pick up batting against LHP with Almonte against RHP and the occassional switch hitting role.

  • mt

    6.

    I try to get excited about Arod return and then I quickly remember Biogenesis fiasco hanging over his return. Also concerned about Tex reinjury (saw a note this morning that he is still experiencing soreness according to Cashman) and have decided that Youkilis is not providing anything for a year.

    Given where I live I see a lot of O’s games – yes they have problems especially with starting pitching (Garcia got shelled again yesterday) but they have young, near major league ready starting pitching reinforcements in minor leagues and best of all as those young pitchres struggle/develop they will be a bear over the next five years from a position player standpoint with Machado, Jones, Wieters, and Davis (of course he needs to keep it up) all on the right side of 30.

    That is why Yankee fan base goes wild when someone like Zoilo does anything even over a short sample – we are so desperate for someone like that – Yanks have no ML players that are on right side of 30 that resemble anyhting like the Orioles have on the major league level (until we hopefully see Heathcott, Sanchez, Austin, etc.)

    • FEED.ME.MORE!

      The Orioles also sucked for 15 years, so there’s that……

  • Lukaszek

    6, mostly because of Zoilo. I think that Zoilo is the real gold. I mean, he might pull a David Adams, but Adams had no power to start with, and no track record against major league pitchers, while Zoilo did really well in Spring Training

  • FEED.ME.MORE!

    I’m still at a 9.

    Watching Zo finally get some burn is a big plus. Hopefully he can hold down the fort until Granderson returns. After that, who knows?

    Get Musty up here as soon as he is healthy, so Adams can go back to AAA and get his game back.

    I don’t want to go overboard with Nova’s start, but at least it gives you some hope that he’s turning a corner in his career. Sometimes young guys need a bad patch to knock them back to earth, and then they figure it out. Development is an inexact science.

    I’m a Hughes guy, but he needs to stop getting smacked around with 2 strikes. Nova may have given up some hits, but there weren’t too many rockets.

    The A-Rod, Jeter, Pineda knows is encouraging.

    Basically, I just hope we can hang in there until the end of July. Noone is running away with the division and now Toronto is going all Miami Heat on the world. This will be a fun rest of the season.

  • Manny’s BanWagon

    5.
    This teams is headed towards a .500 season this year and with all the players likely leaving at the end of the season, Cashman is gonna have to pull players out of thin air to replace them.

    Next couple of years are gonna be transitional IMO

    • FEED.ME.MORE!

      It was always going to be transitional. Jeter, Alex, Mo, Andy were always going to get old and retire. We expect them to just keep going and not skip a beat?

      • Robinson Tilapia

        I often wonder that same thing. This was always going to be tough. Perhaps they’re making it tougher than it needs to be, but there was going to be the type of adversity this franchise hadn’t faced in a while to face in the middle part of this decade, no matter.

      • Fin

        I agree. By allowing solid players to walk and intionally downgrading the roster before the season started, shows the Yankees thought the time had come as well. It could be that Hal is just a money grubber and didn’t want to over pay Martin and Swish to help reap the 189 money. I don’t think so though. I think they thought it wasn’t worth overpaying them to play on a transitioning team, that may not make the playoffs during the term of their contracts. They did know about Arod and Jeters injuries during the offseason, and they know more than we do, and they may very well feel that any meaningful contributions from them going forward is very unlikely.

        • OhioYanks

          And they may feel the opposite.

  • Manny’s BanWagon

    5.
    This teams is headed towards a .500 season this year and with all the players likely leaving at the end of the season, Cashman is gonna have to pull players out of thin air to replace them.

    Next couple of years are gonna be transitional IMO

  • Manny’s BanWagon

    5.
    This teams is headed towards a .500 season this year and with all the players likely leaving at the end of the season, Cashman is gonna have to pull players out of thin air to replace them.

    Next couple of years are gonna be transitional IMO

    • Robinson Tilapia

      MBW’s a 15!

      • LarryM Fl

        very sharp with your calculation

  • Mickey Scheister

    I vote a 6. Being above .500 ball with all the injuries but the whole more runs allowed than scores is freaking scary. The BoSox have 101 more runs scored than the Yanks, yes they’ve played more games but not 100 runs worth. With Adams crashing back to earth, Nix batting second, Nuno & Musty hurt and some inflated ERA outta Hughes and Nova the pitching staff is the only way the Yanks stay competitive while they wait out these injuries. Here’s to hoping from some speedy recoveries from Nuno, Pineda, A-Rod, Jeter, Teix and Grandy.

  • Fin

    5 as usual. Nix, Overbay, Adams, hafner, Wells all getting regular playing time gives me no confidence in this team. If it wasn’t for Zolio I would probably be lower. This team can and is likely to get shutdown by any pitcher on any given day and against a lefty they are just about guaranteed to get shutdown. With Cano being a no show for the last month and a half Its as bad of a lineup as there is in the Majors. The pitching isn’t as good as it played during the first month and a half and are now pitching more to the way I expected which is good but not great. I see the team continuing to loose ground on the .500 mark until they slip under. I don’t have any confidence in the returns of Tex, Jeter and Arod being significant upgrades because of the likely hood of lingering health issues. As far as long term goes, I don’t trust this Management team to rebuild in a timely fashion as it has been inadequate developing every day major league players.

  • OhioYanks

    That there are probably over a dozen people commenting who are basing a large part of their grade on like 3 hot games from Zoilo tells me about all I need to know about the quality of this poll.

    It would be interesting to look at the historical results of the poll. My guess is that they would be much more correlated with the team’s record leading up to the poll than just after it. I know that Axisa loves to do it, but looking for recent streaks (hot or cold) is largely fools gold. Someone is hot until they aren’t and cold until they aren’t. That someone is on game 5 of a tear/slump doesn’t tell you whether the next 5 games will be games 6-10 of the same or games 1-5 of a reversal to a slump/tear. I think that the Yankees offense as presently constructed is bad, no doubt, but that’s because of the long-term talent levels of the players rather than their recent streaks. There are so many statements on this site (from commenters and authors alike) about how the past week or month this has happened to it will keep happening. No. Not necessarily.

    The irony is that everyone’s new whipping boy Adams came up on fire similarly to the new goldenboy Zoilo. People don’t seem to learn. They see the same thing over and over again, yet make the same mistakes over and over again. (Zoilo may well be a better long-term or at least 2013 hitter than Adams, I have no idea, but he almost definitely is not Barry Bonds * Babe Ruth.)

    • Jim Is Bored

      You can see the results of the pool here:

      http://riveraveblues.com/fan-confidence-poll/

      (It’s linked in every poll)

      • OhioYanks

        Thanks. Might organize the data and regress it one night this week.

    • Fin

      Good thing you’re smarter than everyone else. It could just be possible that everyone realizes Zolio wont be this good for too long, and that he very well may end up just like Adams but at least for now it gives people a little reason to be excited about the Yankees and a reason to watch the games. This is a fucking ugly team to watch and Zolio makes it less so, for now.

      • OhioYanks

        So people are not voting based on the actual criteria and my point that the poll results are useless stands?

        I didn’t say that I was smarter than anyone. I just have some idea how markets work based on the work of smart people who figured it out. It’s basic human nature. People are bad with market timing and tend to buy high and sell low because they see market momentum heading in one direction and want to get in/out before prices rise/fall further. This is the basically the same thing.

        Rather than waste both of our time being a dick to me, maybe you could learn something if you went and looked up what I was talking about.

        • Fin

          LOL, dude this is a blog about the Yankees. Its just a way to get people to talk about the Yankees and how they feel about where the team is heading. As it accomplishes that I don’t think its useless at all. If Mike wanted to publish the damn thing or have ABC report on it, you would be correct. You appear to be taking this a bit too serious. LMAO Market momentum in regards to a fun poll on a Yankee blog. ESSH!

          • OhioYanks

            Dude, you are the one who responded to my comment in which I made the point that there is nothing to this poll in terms of accuracy. I am not taking anything seriously. I made a comment that you choose to respond to, apparently without understanding.

            LMAO, this is exactly the same phenomenon as timing in the stock market. An interesting, fun point I made. Nothing to do with how serious this poll is.

            I may not be smarter than everyone else, but I do appear to be smarter than at least one person.