Game 63: The King

(Otto Greule Jr/Getty)

(Otto Greule Jr/Getty)

The obligatory Felix Hernandez vs. the Yankees game is this afternoon, the finale of the four-game series in Seattle. The Yankees actually beat Felix earlier this year … well, they beat his teammates. Hernandez held them to one run in six innings and exited with a two-run lead, but the bullpen gave it up in the eventual loss. That’s pretty much the plan here, the old Pedro Martinez strategy. Just wait Hernandez out and hope to beat up on the bullpen. Here’s the lineup the Yankees are run out there against the King…

  1. CF Brett Gardner
  2. 2B Robinson Cano
  3. 1B Mark Teixeira
  4. DH Travis Hafner
  5. LF Vernon Wells
  6. RF Ichiro Suzuki
  7. 3B Jayson Nix
  8. SS Reid Brignac
  9. C Chris Stewart

And on the mound is the 440th overall pick in the 2008 draft, right-hander David Phelps. This afternoon’s game is scheduled to start a little after 4pm ET and can be seen on YES. Enjoy.

Injury Update: Kevin Youkilis said his back is “a little stiff” after sliding into first base on a defensive play yesterday. The Yankees are off tomorrow, so the plan is to give him two days off and having him back in the lineup for Tuesday’s series opener against the Athletics … Eduardo Nunez (ribcage) started some rotational work down in Tampa, but he remains a long way away from returning.

Categories : Game Threads


  1. trr says:

    No reason to write this game off just ’cause Hernandez is pitching. In the words of the Immortal Baseball Sage John Stirling, “Annnnnything can happen in Baseball!”

  2. Wheels says:

    Wells-Ichiro-Nix-Brignac-Stewart. Hoo-hah

  3. trr says:

    Still, I’d feel better if we’d won Friday night….

  4. forensic says:

    I’m absolutely shocked that Youkilis isn’t playing and feels stiff after they said he’d be fine today…

  5. forensic says:

    What a blown career opportunity this season for Nunez. Had a chance to really make a spot almost permanently on this, or at least another team’s, roster by playing several months in a row with no real competition. Instead he’s been hurt the vast majority of the time and when he did play he was terrible.

  6. Eddard says:

    BGDP vs King Felix. There may be a reverse lock in this game but the reverse would be if the Mariners won. Phelps can match Felix 0 for 0.

  7. Jenny C says:

    Kevin Youkilis said his back is “a little stiff” after sliding into first base on a defensive play yesterday.

    $13 million salary for a declining, aged, injury-plagued player. Were there any other teams offering Youk that kind of money? I remember Pete Abraham saying Youk wasn’t worth more than a $3 million contract, so I was shocked when the .235 hitter was signed for $13.

    • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

      It’s $12M, not that that’s much better.
      Supposedly Cleveland offered 2/18.

      It definitely still seemed like an overpay at the time.
      Even more so now.

  8. CountryClub says:

    @therealarieber: If you’re a Yankees fan, you’re going to love what the scouts who watched Pineda just said. First nugget: They had him touching 95.

  9. Karl Krawfid says:

    We won’t be no hit.

    Today has been a success.

  10. The Real Greg says:

    That swing encourages me a bit about Cano. Looking to go the other way.

  11. The Real Greg says:

    95 2 seamer. Nasty

  12. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Smooth, ump, smooth.

  13. The Real Greg says:

    And the Marlins and Mets are in another extra inning game.

  14. Brian S. says:

    So how about that Gardner? He’s been carrying the team this last little stretch of games.

    • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

      Currently leading the Yankees in fWAR and bWAR, fwiw.

      • Brian S. says:

        Yeah Cano has been balls for almost a month. Went from MVP candidate to potential undeserved All-Star nomination.

  15. Eddard says:

    King Felix is off. They need to pounce here.

  16. Brian S. says:

    Come on Ichiro.

  17. The Real Greg says:

    A mild success for the Yankees there, considering the odds against a two out rally and raising his pitch count

  18. Brian S. says:

    Trade Ichiro to the Giants or anyone else that wanted him. Don’t even need a prospect.

    • The Real Greg says:

      And play who in the outfield? You have to keep either Wells or Ichiro.

      • Brian S. says:

        Zoilo! And then trade Wells for nothing and play Neal.

        • The Real Greg says:

          Play two rookie outfielders? That won’t go over well in New York.

          • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

            Ichiro and Wells performances this season are going over very well.

            • The Real Greg says:

              I want to be sure before I comment on this, but did Ichiro sign his contract early in the offseason?

              • Brian S. says:

                No it was pretty late I believe.

              • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

                December 13.

                • The Real Greg says:

                  So Cashman had a little bit of time to find a viable outfield replacement before the brass above him went ahead with the Ichiro signing.

                  That’s what it appears to be.

                  • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

                    Probably not. They come up with an offseason plan of attack shortly after the previous season ends. If the brass wanted Ichiro, they were going to get Ichiro.

          • Brian S. says:

            I bet they would outproduce their veteran counterparts. Not hard to do better than a 70 wRC+.

            • The Real Greg says:

              Probably, but it’s that whole “fear of rebuilding” thing.

              The word “rebuilding” is a curse word in New York sports.

            • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

              Possibly, but David Adams and Austin Romine are finding that to be quite difficult so far.

              • Brian S. says:

                This is also true. I’ll be the first one to admit that I thought Adams would be a plus hitter.

                • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

                  I still think he has a chance to be useful. He’s been pretty brutal lately, though.

                  • Brian S. says:

                    He’s better than Youkilis just with his glove alone. Youkilis has been dreadful in all facets of the game.

  19. Cy Pettitte says:

    that passing around the turkey leg is beyond disgusting

  20. Brian S. says:

    Seriously though, fuck Jason Bay.

  21. Cy Pettitte says:

    Can’t say I’ve seen many RHPs with a better pick off move than Phelps.

  22. Wheels says:

    Respect the Phelps move.

  23. Eddard says:

    Phelps really does have a great move for a RHP.

  24. Cy Pettitte says:

    I still can’t believe this Mets team that is going to be 3-8 vs. the Marlins swept a 4 game set against the Yankees.

  25. McLovin says:

    That should be a error.

  26. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    So I finally, finally, FINALLY got to here Ma and Pa go on about Nix. I quote Sterling: “Nix is one of the more valuable Yankees”. Needless to say I burst out laughing.

    That said, he HAS been playing well lately.

  27. Eddard says:

    There’s nothing that Jayson Nix can’t do. Now drive him home.

  28. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:


  29. Wheels says:

    Great bunt

  30. Pat D says:

    OMG Stewart.

  31. teddy says:

    great bunt by stewart

  32. The Real Greg says:

    Excellent bunt by Stewart

  33. 28 this year says:

    The bunt that turns the season around

  34. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Gardy is on fire!!

  35. Karl Krawfid says:

    First Nixy.

    Now Gardy.

  36. Cy Pettitte says:

    wow, that an awesome AB by Gardner after getting down 0-2

  37. Wheels says:

    Gardner is the man right now.

  38. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    Very nice Gardy!

  39. The Real Greg says:

    And Brett is RED HOT

  40. Eddard says:

    Gardner is red hot! Keep pouring it on against the laboring King Felix!

  41. Wheels says:

    Jesus Cano, be patient

  42. The Real Greg says:

    And Cano continues to lose money

  43. Pat D says:

    Dammit, Cano.

    That DP pretty much ensures he’ll show up now.

  44. The Real Greg says:

    Ok Phelps, there’s your run.

  45. Eddard says:

    Of all the things Robbie could have done that was the absolute worst. He couldn’t even help drive up the pitch count.

  46. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    Well, that deescalated quickly. Gardner & Robbie are on opposite ends of the spectrum right now.

  47. The Real Greg says:

    This is becoming more than just a slump. I don’t remember the last time Cano was hitting in the low .270s

    • Pat D says:

      Educated guess says back in ’08. Excluding very early season numbers.

    • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

      .273 on this date 2 years ago

    • Bacon swag and cheese says:

      I researched the recent bad months by Cano. Anything below .800 OPS counts

      May 2013 (.796)
      May 2009 (.762)
      June 2009 (.718)
      April 2012 (.712)
      May 2011 (.712)
      September 2010 (.650)

      So yeah, he often has prolonged early season slumps. And the one time that he avoided an early season slump in 2010, he had to pay by having the worst September in his career.

  48. The Doctor says:

    Cano always breaks out of his slumps, but the way he goes about it is frustrating. He’s talented enough that eventually the hits just come to him, so he swings first pitch every time. Not exactly the best way to do it. Take a freaking pitch now and then.

  49. Brian S. says:

    Still waiting for that one month where Cano puts the team on his back doe

    • Wheels says:

      Hopefully that month will be October

    • Pat D says:

      June 2012: .340/.416/.730, 11 HR, 21 RBI, 21 R
      Sept./Oct. 2012: .347/.418/.581, 6 HR, 24 RBI, 27 R
      August 2011: .345/.377/.637, 7 HR, 29 RBI, 22 R, 10 2B
      March/April 2011: .320/.340/.639, 8 HR, 21 RBI, 18 R
      July 2010: .276/.351/.582, 6 HR, 18 RBI, 17 R
      June 2010: .333/.398/.510, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 19 R
      March/April 2010: .400/.436/.765, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 21 R

      And, because I’m getting tired now, he had over a .900 OPS in March/April, July, August and Sept./Oct. in 2009.

  50. Anderson Silva says:

    Yankees are winning in spite of Cano.

  51. Pat D says:

    Curious that Phelps keeps blowing on his hand.

  52. The Real Greg says:

    Oh Phelps…

  53. Anderson Silva says:

    very little command from Phelps..

  54. The Real Greg says:

    Phelps hurt himself by walking Liddi. And it leads to a failure.

  55. Cy Pettitte says:

    what a cheap ass run. Shoppach should have struck out on a called strike three and he scores on an infield singe with 2 outs.

  56. The Real Greg says:

    And Pineda looms….

  57. teddy says:

    can’t get out of ryan

  58. Wheels says:

    Still sore at Robbie for hitting into that DP.

    • Anderson Silva says:

      Robbie and Ichiro. They could be up by 3 or 4 right now.

      • Wheels says:

        Yeah, but I don’t expect much from Ichiro. And the way Cano just swung at the first pitch, yet again. We had momentum there.

        • WhittakerWalt says:

          Girardi will probably say “I don’t want Robbie to lose his aggressiveness” or some horseshit.
          Problem is, elite pitchers can prey on his aggressiveness and make him look foolish.

      • The Real Greg says:

        Robbie is the worse aggressor.

        Ichiro came up with 2 outs after the Yankees got two consecutive walks with two outs.

        Two out rallies are hard to score on, especially with no extra base hits.

  59. Pat D says:

    Marlins scored 4 in the top of the 10th to beat the Mets, 3 of those runs charged to Parnell.

    Don’t know whether to laugh or cry.

  60. Eddard says:

    Why can’t Robbie Cano fight off pitches like Gardner and Teix do? He just goes up there swinging at the 1st pitch, roll over to 2nd, DP.

  61. Pat D says:

    Wow. Just noticed that between the tattoo and the chin pubes, Felix is really going for the fugly look.

  62. Anderson Silva says:

    King settled down.. it was great while it lasted

  63. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    42 pitches for the first 4 outs
    12 pitches for the next 5 outs

    Well done.

  64. Matt says:

    The problem is not that they are scoring. It is that they are swinging at EVERYTHING.

    Felix has a pitch count over 40 and 1 run already in. What does our supposedly “best” hitter do? He bails him out by swinging at the first pitch and bangs into a rally killing DP. What do our “middle of the order” hitters do in the next inning with his pitch count starting around 45? They get themselves out early in the count chasing pitcher’s pitches.

    It is one thing to not score, and another to put no pressure on the pitcher by having no approach at the plate. You could score no runs while wearing the pitcher out, and it would be more productive likely than getting a few first pitch singles.

    • Matt says:

      That they are scoring at their current level. Missed a word there.

      They would be better off not scoring these runs early in the game if it meant getting his pitch count up to 60-70 early on and forcing him from the game. I’d rather a guy get called out on strikes on 4 or 5 pitches than get a first pitch base hit that is immediately erased by another first pitch hack.

      • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

        They would be better off not scoring these runs early in the game


        • Matt says:

          Read the next part of the sentence, idiot.

          “if it meant getting his pitch count up to 60-70 early on and forcing him from the game”

          Getting Felix out of the game after 5 or 6 would be worth far more than getting one or two runs being aggressive and then getting shut down the rest of the way as he settles in. They would probably score more runs by game’s end even if they didn’t score as many in the beginning.

          • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

            The qualification really doesn’t make the statement any less stupid.

            Getting runners on base and scoring runs adds to his pitch count. It doesn’t make it lower. You’ll notice the only inning they didn’t get anybody on base was the only quick inning Felix has had.

            • Matt says:

              That’s simply not true. Get off your high horse and stop thinking you know more than the rest of us.

              Getting runners on base and scoring runs only adds to his pitch count when they do it by being patient. Swinging at the first pitch and getting base hits does not work the pitcher unless the other guys are patient behind him. It is a high risk, low reward kind of move when you have batters like Ichiro at the plate.

              Cano can get away with it because sometimes those might be extra base hits. But not guys like Nix, Ichiro, Stewart, Adams, etc. That is what is killing them more than anything else. In that sense, I would much rather have a guy who makes outs but sees more pitches. If Ichiro hacks at the first pitch, he won’t do enough damage to justify all of the times he lets the pitcher off the hook.

              • Pat D says:

                I really don’t want to get into this, but you’re one to tell him to “get off [his] high horse” after calling him an “idiot.”

              • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

                Getting runners on base and scoring runs only adds to his pitch count when they do it by being patient.

                Simply not true.
                Making quick outs keeps his pitch count low. Getting on base raises his pitch count, while still leaving him with the same number of outs to still get.

                • Matt says:

                  Again, that is simply not true. A 5 pitch out will make him throw more pitches for the same number of outs than a first pitch base hit and a 3 pitch pop out.

                  If we want to talk about logic fails, we should be looking at your posts. You are conflating two activities which are correlated but not caused by one another.

                  Weak hitters like Nix and Ichiro are not likely to be able to accomplish both working the pitcher and getting on base. So the question is whether their potential contribution is worth the risk of a 1 pitch double play or other weak out. With Phelps on the mound, I’d say no.

                  • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

                    A 5 pitch out will make him throw more pitches for the same number of outs than a first pitch base hit and a 3 pitch pop out.

                    Completely missing the point.
                    The getting on base doesn’t affect the number of pitches thrown to get the outs.
                    Any pitch thrown that doesn’t result in an out serves to increase pitch count.
                    Getting on base accomplishes that.

                    • Matt says:

                      Yes, if you want to be literal about it. But then so does taking a pitch. Or swinging and missing.

                      When you put the first pitch in play, you cannot make him throw more than one pitch in the at bat. So by hacking away, you have a chance of not working his pitch count by as much as if you had taken some pitches. The only way in which he can throw as many is if you get on base. But the problem is that beyond whether you hit the ball hard or not, it’s mostly luck.

                      The question you have to ask is whether the net expected value is positive. For Cano, it might be. For Ichiro, it probably is not. For guys who are able to be selective, it probably is not if you are guessing up there because he might throw a tough pitch.

          • Eddard says:

            It’d be like saying, it’s better for Phelps to give up a couple runs early so that he can pitch deeper into the game. The point of the game is to score runs on offense and prevent runs on defense. I don’t know why you’d ever advocate not scoring runs.

            • Matt says:

              That is not what I said. And I didn’t advocate not scoring runs.

              There are tradeoffs inherent in every activity. Against a pitcher like Felix Hernandez, you are not likely to score a ton of runs with an aggressive approach. Maybe you get 1 or 2, and then he settles in and pitches deep into the game.

              I’d rather my pitcher throw 5 innings but give up no runs, of course. But if the alternative were to go to a bullpen like the Mets have, you’d probably be better off if he gave up a run or two early but went 7 instead. The game is played over 9 innings, so you may trade off early runs for late runs if you are too aggressive.

        • Matt says:

          Seeing say 25 pitches in the inning probably increases their expected run total by more than a bunch of first pitch hacks which happen to lead to 1 or 2 runs, but nothing more.

          • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

            Holy logic fail.

            • Matt says:

              What in the world are you talking about? There is no logic fail. It just happens to disagree with your opinion, so you attack it without making any argument against it.

              Seeing 25-30 pitches in a bunch of innings but scoring no runs, as compared to seeing 5-10 pitches in those same innings but scoring maybe 1 run in the process on a bunch of bloop singles. Which one will likely lead to you scoring more runs over the course of the game with Felix Hernandez on the mound?

              In scenario 1, Felix probably goes only 6 innings and you face some lesser relief pitchers. In scenario 2, Felix probably goes 8 innings. Under scenario 1, you only have to score 1 more run to catch up to scenario 2, but you are facing weaker pitchers against whom you might score more than just 1. In scenario 2, 1 is likely all that you have.

              • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

                Saying scoring 1 to 2 runs decreases run expectancy is a complete logic fail.
                If you can’t see that, that’s your problem.
                Your using an extreme example of run scoring innings all being only 5-10 pitches in non-run scoring innings being 25-30. That is completely unlikely to happen.
                Yes, scoring 1 run against Felix in 9 innings might end up being a lesser result than getting Felix out after 5 innings with no runs. The likelihood of getting Felix out in 5 without scoring any runs is extremely unlikely, making the whole point useless.

                Enough of this nonsense, I’m done.

                • Matt says:

                  It has nothing to do with logic. It is entirely probability. Yours is the biggest logic fail of them all. The only nonsense is your closed-mindedness.

                  Neither of us can answer this question, because it takes into account the relative abilities of the pitchers. Your chance of scoring a run in any inning off of Felix Hernandez is much lower than against the average pitcher.

                  You are also missing the fact that being patient instead of aggressive doesn’t mean you completely give up those runs. I never said to stand there for 3 called strikes and willingly give them up.

                  You might give up those runs, but your run expectation would have been higher ex-ante.

                  Let’s say that I have a 20% chance of scoring one run by being patient and a 40% chance of scoring one run by being aggressive, with the inverse being zero runs. So in that one inning, your expected runs difference is 0.2.

                  Now let’s say that Felix Hernandez pitches 2 fewer innings if you are patient. Against the relief pitcher, your chance of scoring in any one inning is let’s say 20%. Let’s say against Felix Hernandez it is 10%. So by being patient, your run expectancy is actually the same. But let’s say that Felix has settled in, so that the chance of scoring is even lower. Then you might score more runs by getting him out.

                  It’s pretty easy to see how this might happen. Dismissing it outright as a “logic fail” rather than a “lack of data” just shows that it is a personal attack.

      • Mike Axisa says:

        They would be better off not scoring these runs early in the game if it meant getting his pitch count up to 60-70 early on and forcing him from the game.

        This goes in the dumb comment Hall of Fame. First ballot, unanimous.

        • Matt says:

          You need to stop thinking so literally. Scoring 1 run but making him throw just 5-10 pitches in the inning is far less productive than scoring nothing but making him throw 30, which might lead to mediocre middle relievers coming into the game 2 innings earlier.

          The game is 9 innings long. If you are going to jump the guy being aggressive, it can’t be with a bunch of singles hitters who might score 1 run at most by doing so. Over the course of 9 innings, the more patient approach will tend to lead to more runs.

          • Pat D says:

            Key word: “might.”

            With a guy like King Felix, you can’t count on him being out of the game at 100, even 110 pitches. Against him, you just have to score.

            • Matt says:

              Okay, but he is also more likely to make a mistake if you tire him out by making him throw a lot of pitches in consecutive innings. Swinging early in the count at a pitcher’s pitch is not going to accomplish anything. Especially with weak hitters at the plate whose best case outcome is still not a lot.

              • Pat D says:

                Interesting stats on Felix:


                A bit of a yes and no situation.

                • Matt says:

                  Those are interesting numbers. And it’s surprising because usually there is a reverse causation problem because guys go deep into games precisely because they are pitching well.

                  Nonetheless, I meant that even if he is pitching well, you’d rather it be for 6 than for 8. If you’re going to make an out anyway, it would be nice if you did it on 5-6 pitches instead of 2.

                  • Deathstroke Heathcott says:

                    “If you’re going to make an out anyway, it would be nice if you did it on 5-6 pitches instead of 2.”

                    Yes, that’s obvious but also not what you originally said.

          • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

            Odds that they score nothing in an inning yet make him throw 30 pitches in that inning?
            If they’re lucky, that might happen once every 10 starts vs. Felix. And it would likely only be one inning in the game, which he could easily recover from and still pitch deep into the game.

            • Matt says:

              It’s one thing to be aggressive if you can do damage, like Cano. Guys like Ichiro should never be up there hacking away like that, even with runners on base. The most that he will probably do is hit a single, but he is very likely to also make a 1 or 2 pitch out which has a very high cost.

              You might win the battle, but you will lose the war. And especially against Felix. If his command is off and he is throwing a lot of pitches, it’s clear that he is not on his game. But that doesn’t mean he will be hittable either because he has a lot of movement and good velocity. Scoring a run now but letting him go 7-8 probably decreases your chance of winning.

              • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

                You’re assuming scoring a run now increases his likelihood of pitching deep into the game.

                That makes no sense.

                Of course they should have a patient approach and not swing at pitcher’s pitches early in the count. That applies against any pitcher. And that’s something the Yankees need to improve on.

                • Matt says:

                  That is not what I said. Please read what I am writing more closely.

                  I am saying that scoring the run BY BEING AGGRESSIVE is going to increase his likelihood of going deeper. As in, you scored the run but saw fewer pitches in the process. I.e., you traded off working the pitch count for runs.

                  Against a mediocre pitcher, that might make sense. There is not as much of a reward from getting him out of the game. Maybe it even gets tougher against their bullpen and you want to hit against the starter.

                  What I am suggesting is that you might be better off by trading off let’s say one or two runs to hopefully get one of the best starters in baseball out of the game after 5-6 innings instead of 8.

                  And you might still score some runs in the process by being patient because he might make more mistakes as you tire him out.

                  • Deathstroke Heathcott says:

                    Felix is too good to get into long innings just because you’re being patient, you’re gonna have to get hits against him to force him out of the game, plain and simple. It’s not like he’s a young fireballer that can’t find the plate with his electric stuff.

                    I get what you’re trying to say but I have to disagree.

        • The Doctor says:

          We’re just going to skip the voting on this one.

          I think we’d all like to see them take more pitches, but not at the expense of runs. This game is scored in runs, not pitch count.

          • Matt says:

            The game is played over 9 innings, not 2 or 3. Scoring 1 run now but letting the guy settle in is going to lead to you probably scoring less runs overall. Of course it won’t ALWAYS lead to you scoring more runs, but that isn’t the point. You do what you can to maximize your probability, and from there it’s down to luck and execution. Over a long season, you will be better off taking the patient approach, even if it loses you a game or two now.

        • Pat D says:

          I’d like to see that HOF, for sure.

  65. stuart a says:

    Do not say anything bad about King Cano the fandom will say you are clueless.

    after all a big body 30+ year old 2b who has poor plate discipline and is not remotely as good as his fans think deserves at least a 5 year insane contract. Cano is carrying the 26th best offense in baseball. He may drive in 90 runs if he gets hot….

    • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

      throw him a parade…….

    • The Doctor says:

      He’s on pace for 105 RBI. Thanks for trying.

      • stuart a says:

        if cano gets 105 rbis it would be his 3rd time over 100, he is not getting 105 rbi’s and any fool giving him an 7 year deal is a fool.

        ask dipoto, dodgers gm, or cashman or others how those deals work out….

        • The Doctor says:

          I forgot you were above math. Sorry for bringing that in, I’ll just trust your crystal ball. You’re right, he won’t drive in 105. I’ll just move on to the part where RBI are largely dependent on factor outside a player’ control and hardly worth making an argument over.

          Again, thank you for trying.

          • WhittakerWalt says:

            Usually stuart the dimwit acts like RBIs are the only stat that matters. Then when you point out that Cano is on pace for an excellent RBI total, stuart moves the goalposts.

            • Pat D says:

              Just when you think you’ve got the answer, stuart changes the question!

              But he’s not here to chew bubblegum and kick ass.

    • Pat D says:

      Hey, hey! There he is!

      Just as I predicted.

    • Get Phelps Up says:

      wow another loss to the mighty marlins……3-8 against the worst team in the league by far WOW..

      thats ok i’m sure johan santana and his $24m salary will come and help us…

      another masterful risp performance too…parnell again unamble to get the job done. Parnells the best reliever in the 29th best bullpen in baseball, throw him a friggen parade…

      idiot collins lifting Ike for a pinch hitter…


    • WhittakerWalt says:

      If you paid any kind of attention to this site you would see that many of us are critical of Cano. The difference is we don’t sound like deranged idiots while doing it.
      Plus you’re a Mets fan, so your opinion isn’t really welcome here.

  66. stuart a says:

    how bad of a hitter is Brignac? is he worse then Seattle’s SS?

    he has a brennan boesch long swing, the guy has 11 homers for his career. you figure he would try to shorten things…

    yanks only chance is to make felix throw a ton of pitches and exit in the 6th or 7th….our lineup is a joke. youkilis doing exactly what he has done the last 2 or 3 years, not much and hurt all the time…

  67. JonS says:


  68. Anderson Silva says:

    Ichiro could at least wait for a pitch in the strikezone to swing. What a fucking awful player

  69. teddy says:

    if the yanks cared about winning, they go get a real rfer

  70. Pat D says:

    Koufax, Hunter, Bunning…

  71. Wheels says:

    Attaboy Phelps

  72. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Ike Davis optioned to AAA.
    No wonder why stuart’s grumpy.

  73. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    Big ups to Gardy. Not only does he net a double, but he worked a 3-2 count. Very nice.

  74. Jacob the OG says:

    just got back, what’s going on?

  75. Wheels says:


  76. Pat D says:

    Are you fucking kidding me on that 1-0 pitch?

  77. The Real Greg says:

    This is the Gardner that I have been waiting to see for a while.

  78. The Real Greg says:

    And instead of holding back, he swings at the very next pitch.

  79. Eddard says:

    It’s too bad there’s nobody on base when Gardy comes up. He’s our only hitter right now. Robbie’s just going to swing at this 1st pitch and roll over to 2nd.

  80. Pat D says:

    How Cano is making me feel most times right now:


  81. Anderson Silva says:

    fucking Cano… a day on the bench to think things through would not be such a bad thing

  82. Jorge Brosada says:

    Cano has really been stinking up the place lately. Same with Tex.

    Stinky stinky stink

  83. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    Cano is borderline infuriating right now.

  84. The Real Greg says:

    If you want to be paid $100 million plus, you can’t be hitting .272 and not even trying to hit.

    • Get Phelps Up says:

      Yes, he’s not trying and doesn’t care. You’ve figured him out!

    • Pat D says:

      Yea, I’m sure he’s not trying.

      How much do you charge per hour to your patients to read their minds and tell them what’s wrong with them in your psychiatrist’s office?

      • The Real Greg says:

        I’m sure he is trying. But it just looks like he’s not really trying to work the count or go the other way.

        • WhittakerWalt says:

          Working the count and/or going the other way are definitely things he has no interest in, at least these days. It’s plain as day.

        • Matt says:

          To answer the question of whether he is trying to hit then, you would need to know whether he is aware of the fact that these actions tend to lead to success at the plate.

          Given how much work he’s done on being more patient at the plate, I’d say that he does now this. Of course, it is easier to know it than to do it, but if he is willfully being aggressive when he knows that is counter-productive, then it certainly isn’t incorrect to say that he isn’t trying to hit.

  85. Anderson Silva says:

    Big hitters hitting like little leaguers.. that’s why they can’t score runs..

  86. Wheels says:

    Phelps holding it down.

  87. Eddard says:

    BGDP’s reputation precedes him. He is matching King Felix inning for inning.

  88. Jacob the OG says:

    Someone want to inform me of when eddard stopped trolling ?

  89. Wheels says:

    Welcome to first base, Vernon.

  90. Eddard says:

    There’s our break. Drive one in the gap, Ichiro and get Wells home.

  91. The Real Greg says:

    Still angry at Phelps for walking Liddi.

    • The Real Greg says:

      The reason is because Phelps should be pitching a shutout right now.

      I know it’s a FALLACY, but that’s what I think.

  92. Eddard says:

    BGDP says if you’re going to keep squeezing me I’ll just strike them out swinging. Push a run across and get the man a well deserved win.

  93. trr says:

    Goddam, Hernandez can pitch!

  94. stuart a says:

    Hernandez can pitch big time and the Yankee offense is offensive..

    look at the #’s they are friggin scary…

    they don’t miss Nunez because Brignac is a heck of a player… WOW he is awful..

    Seeger would be the 2nd best hitter if on the Yanks…

    will Tex continue his 4th year of decline? time will tell but do not bet against it. and the yanks signed him at 28

  95. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Well at least he’s a great hitter.

  96. Eddard says:

    Put Overbay out there if Ichiro is going to do that.

  97. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:


  98. Mick taylor says:

    Texiera is hitting 176. Other than the cheap homer in Yankee stadium and his other 2, he has not done better than overbay.

  99. Ivan says:

    Wow Logan!

  100. Eddard says:

    I like our pen against theirs. 2-3-4 hitters eventually have to do something. Now would be a good time.

  101. Wheels says:

    This is a good game.

  102. Eddard says:

    Good job there Robbie.

  103. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    For some reason I saw that pitch hitting his hand/wrist area… scared the daylights out of me.

  104. Matt says:

    The gun doesn’t seem to be juiced, because the readings were normal for other guys. It is weird though that Logan’s velocity suddenly jumped a few mph out in Seattle, and the hitters are reacting like it is in fact faster.

  105. FEED.ME.MORE! says:

    Cano doesn’t hustle…..

  106. Wheels says:

    Damn Tex

  107. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Ugh…ball 4.

  108. Pasta Stumbling Sojo says:

    I just caught up on the thread and read Matt’s claim that scoring a run while taking fewer pitches is not as good as not scoring a run while taking more pitches. I wish people had broken down why he was wrong more specifically instead of just saying he was wrong or focusing on the wrong part.

    He gave this specific breakdown, which just doesn’t work out:
    “Seeing 25-30 pitches in a bunch of innings but scoring no runs, as compared to seeing 5-10 pitches in those same innings but scoring maybe 1 run in the process on a bunch of bloop singles. Which one will likely lead to you scoring more runs over the course of the game with Felix Hernandez on the mound?

    In scenario 1, Felix probably goes only 6 innings and you face some lesser relief pitchers. In scenario 2, Felix probably goes 8 innings. Under scenario 1, you only have to score 1 more run to catch up to scenario 2, but you are facing weaker pitchers against whom you might score more than just 1. In scenario 2, 1 is likely all that you have.”

    First of all, it’s not true that the difference between 5-10 pitches and 25-30 pitches is 8 inning vs. 6 innings. Felix averages 15 pitches per inning (last year was 14.7). So a difference of 20 pitches is 1.1 innings.

    But let’s even say that the difference of 20 pitches is 2 fewer innings of Felix. Felix’s ERA was 2.58 going into this game. Seattle’s bullpen ERA is 3.90 (http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/t...../split/128). That means that in 2 innings, you’d expect their bullpen to give up .3 more runs than Felix would.

    So even under the false assumption that in Scenario 1 20 pitches buys you 2 more innings of non-Felix pitchers, it still only gives you .3 more runs. You are definitely better off in Scenario 2, where you scored the run by being aggressive.

    • Eddard says:

      You’re always better scoring more runs, period.

      • Matt says:

        Obviously, but you aren’t CHOOSING to not score. You are altering the odds of scoring in a specific inning, but you may still score in either case. Judging outcomes rather than process leads to you falling into these sorts of strawman arguments.

    • Matt says:

      I didn’t say you choose not to score. In fact, being patient still gives you a non-zero chance of scoring, perhaps not quite as large as being aggressive but it could actually be the reverse if you take into account things like the potential for walks and multiple run innings.

      Let’s hypothetically say you hit .400 if you put the first pitch in play, and .200 thereafter. And that there is a 75% chance of putting the ball in play given that you swing at the first pitch. And a hit leads to 1 run and then the inning is over (an oversimplification but otherwise you can also argue that being patient might lead to walks and other things that increase your chance of scoring as well).

      Then by swinging at the first pitch, you have a 35% chance of scoring, and by not you have a 20% chance of scoring. Then in your similarly simplified scenario, the expected number of runs would be higher over 9 innings by not swinging at the first pitch.

      The key is not to look at outcomes, but probabilities ex-ante. My point is that you may give up a run now for a run later, but on the whole you would be expected to score more even if it doesn’t happen every time.

      • Matt says:

        The problem is that we don’t know what these probabilities actually are without digging deeper into these data, because the work to this point has been for average outcomes. But it is pretty clear that there are scenarios in which my argument could be true.

        So an argument that we can’t definitively say that is fair, and I would agree. What is not appropriate to say though is some of the nonsense that I have received in response to it. As if it were completely ridiculous and foolish to say, which is definitely not true.

    • trr says:

      I agree with you Pasta, but think you’re over analyzing things j- u-u-u-st a bit …

  109. Wheels says:


  110. The Real Greg says:

    Now you could go for it all by pinch hitting Overbay. But it would be risky.

  111. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Is it wrong that I want Overbay to PH here?

  112. Chris says:

    It’s actually wrong for a pretty simple reason. There is never a guarantee of scoring runs, so you take the runs ANY TIME you can get them. It was an idiotic statement, but I did get his point. It was just a terrible way to say they should be more patient.

  113. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Surprise me, Vernon.

  114. Wheels says:

    Lol, of course, Wells.

  115. The Real Greg says:

    Just a horrible offense. I’m starting to think about ditching Kevin Long.

  116. The Real Greg says:

    But again, the Mariners should have 0 runs right now, if Phelps pitches to the rookie Liddi.

    Fallacy, yes but I pinpointed that moment as huge when it happened.

  117. Mick taylor says:

    For 22 million a year Tex is a bust

    • The Real Greg says:

      He has a ring. Therefore no bust.

      Even ARod isn’t a bust.

    • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

      You’re really just a one-trick pony, aren’t you?

      • FEED.ME.MORE! says:

        dalelama’s illegitimate son.

      • Mick taylor says:

        For the 180 million deal he signed, his performance including his awful postseason play, certaintly makes him a bust. I will buy you dinner in November if he hits more than250 and is nothorrible in the postseason should they make it.

        • trr says:

          I read u slept w/Marianne Faithful; is that true?

        • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

          Didn’t say he’s worth the contract. He hasn’t come close to being worth it.
          Do you really need to constantly harp on it all the time?
          Do you think that’s going to change anything?

  118. Chris says:

    here comes robertson to put the leadoff man on

  119. stuart a says:

    check out the obps on wells, ichiro, and the rest of the crew. they are under 300 obp which is atrocious..

    literally you have to fudge stats ti find anything positive with the yankee offense.

    tampa has scored over 50 more runs then the yanks…

    Robertson ready to blow the game. he can never make it easy 3 up and 3 down…

    3rd best era in the AL and this offense is awful…

  120. Chris says:

    i’ve never been more unhappy to be right

  121. Chris says:

    that’s what will settle down Robertson…a good talking to by Jason Nix and Reid Brignac..lol

  122. The Real Greg says:

    Ladies and Gentleman, the Great Houdini

    • Chris says:

      i keep telling myself that has to even out at some point, unfortunately

      • The Real Greg says:

        Well he’s been doing this for the last 3 years so when?

        • Chris says:

          your question is valid, but what he’s doing goes against everything i believe.

          • Pasta Stumbling Sojo says:

            Is that true? Does he really give up fewer runs than you’d expect based on his K and BB rates?

            • Chris says:

              No, he strands runners like no one I’ve ever seen. And every logical baseball thought tells you that has to come back and get you at some point..I understand a high strikeout pitcher helps, but that’s kind of his thing..Dancing on the edge..My fear is that will stop being his thing and he’s still putting runners on..I usually wouldn’t comment like this without looking at the numbers, but I feel like he puts a ton of runners on..Maybe my eyes are lying to me…I usually tell other people that.

  123. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    Oh thank god D-Rob. Time to wake up offense.

  124. The Doctor says:

    How the first pitch of the AB was called a ball and the 3rd was called a strike I just don’t know. All balanced out though.

  125. nsalem says:

    Erik Weisz strikes again!!!!!!!

  126. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Why must you always make things so difficult DRob?

    Another nice Houdini act though.

  127. Ivan says:

    It’s gotten to da point I don’t even worry when D-Rob puts himself into trouble…..he probably at his best when he does.

  128. The Real Greg says:

    I would pinch hit Overbay for Brigniac, put Nix at short and put Adams at third.

  129. Eddard says:

    Now they have a runner. Use that Overbay bullet this inning.

  130. The Real Greg says:

    That’s why Wedge had Ollie Perez warming. To counter that move.

  131. Cy Pettitte says:

    why is Overbay even on the team if Brignac is hitting for himself here?

  132. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Give up an out to move up the runner only to then let Reid Brignac hit????

  133. Eddard says:

    I take Overbay vs Perez over Brignac against anybody.

  134. Chris says:

    please run into a 2-0 fastball here

  135. stuart a says:

    shocker brignac did not get a hit. what a shocker…”he is 1 of the worse hitters in baseball. tampa really did well with that draft pick.

    stewart to the resuce.. oy

  136. The Real Greg says:


  137. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:


  138. 28 this year says:


  139. Get Phelps Up says:


  140. Cy Pettitte says:

    Girardi is so fucking lucky that Stewart delivered.

    • The Real Greg says:

      Just like yesterday, it’s very hard to criticize a manager

    • The Doctor says:

      Still can’t agree with the moves that got the run, but I’ll take the run. Still, giving up an out when you have a base stealer on first is a bit illogical. Shoppach’s not exactly having a great night back there, I would’ve taken my chances and saved an out.

      That said, nice work Stewie. Have to give it to him, he’s exceeded expectations. I’d still like an upgrade behind the plate, but he’s been more tolerable than expected.

  141. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:


  142. pop says:

    stewart’s makin’ dat money!

  143. Will (the other one) says:

    Chris Stewart, ladies and gentlemen.

  144. Eddard says:


  145. Chris says:

    the bunt!!!!!! it sickens me, but I’ll take the run

  146. Chris says:

    good thing raul ibanez was in left

  147. stuart a says:

    the funny things is stewart is having a big game with a bunt single and a groundball thru the hole….

    we will take it anyway we can… the lineup is simply laughable how bad it is…

  148. Leg-End says:

    Give that man a drink of water!

  149. nsalem says:

    Stewart and Nix do something good every game.

  150. Eddard says:

    BGDP allowed this to happen by matching King Felix inning for inning.

    • nsalem says:

      We may not be seeing Mr. Nova for quite awhile unless it’s as a reliever.

    • The Doctor says:

      Still have to hand it to SCCS for driving in the run. Not to mention GWBG with a nice 4 hit day. Really good to see them all pick up LDRC, CHTH, and GFMT who really haven’t done much in the middle of the order.

      (I will personally send $50 to anyone who can figure all of those out)

      • nsalem says:

        2nd catcher Chris Stewart Gritty White Brett Gardner Lame Duck Robbie Cano am I right so far?

      • Chris says:

        sh*t catcher chris stewart
        great white brett gardner
        long dong robinson cano
        clueless hacking travis hafner
        great fail mark Teixeira

        really no clue on the last two

      • Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

        Starting Catcher Chris Stewart
        Gritty White Brett Gardner
        Lazy Dominican Robinson Cano
        Cold Hitting Travis Hafner
        Good Fielding Mark Teixeira

  151. Pasta Stumbling Sojo says:

    Ooh, Oliver Perez pitching reminds me that Greg and I had a bet about him last year, after one of Greg’s classic predictions based on very small sample sizes. I looked it up after the season and I definitely won the bet, but I never posted about it. I’ll dig it up at some point.

    • The Real Greg says:

      The bet was on how well Perez pitched against lefties.

      Last year, lefties hit .281 off of Ollie.

  152. Eddard says:

    Oliver Perez is a showboat. He did the same thing last night. He deserves to be infield singled to death.

  153. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Yikes, Robbie.

  154. The Doctor says:

    I’ll take a slumping Robbie getting on base twice, I guess.

  155. The Real Greg says:

    The Golden sombrero

  156. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    Right down the middle.

  157. Wupash says:

    Dammit Tex, Perez was BEGGING you to hit a grand slam there.

  158. Chris says:

    that was awful

  159. your mom says:

    I’m glad Tex is making the league minimum.

  160. stuart a says:

    tex is a guess hitter. I have no idea why, he usually guess’s wrong.

    what happened to the 280 tex, he is long long gone…

    dared perez to throw an off speed pitch for a strike and he did….

  161. OldYanksFan says:

    M’s announcer:

    “There gonna have to do it against Mariano Rivera, the greatest Closer of all time.”

  162. Anderson Silva says:

    Cano and teix are really trying to lose this game

  163. Karl Krawfid says:

    Mo hasn’t been getting the ball down lately.

  164. Karl Krawfid says:

    Ummm well that works.

    Atta boy Mo!

  165. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Nice DP.

  166. The Real Greg says:

    And that’s why Tex is in the lineup.

  167. Chris says:

    this is all a set up for a raul ibanez walk off

  168. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    That play may have saved the game. Phew.

  169. Chris says:

    i must be way behind

  170. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Mo fears no hitter. Except maybe RAUL.

  171. nsalem says:

    where was dat??????

  172. Karl Krawfid says:

    Mo can’t get that ball down and away.

  173. trr says:

    Mom made it interesting

  174. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    Thank goodness for great pitching.

  175. nsalem says:


  176. I'mVernonI'mVernon4U says:

    That was as nerve wracking as could be. But a win is a win.

  177. Chris says:

    that last pitch to chavez was terrible..top of the strike zone and down the middle..good thing it was endy chavez

  178. Hall and Nokes says:

    Felix fails again.

  179. forensic says:

    Great win! Very nice, and much needed (in a way) series win!

    On to Oakland where they’ll hopefully get a little revenge for the second series there last year.

    • flamingo says:

      Ugh, that was the series where Tex was awesome, but they got swept, right?

      I’d rather remember the 14 inning amazing game we played there.

      • forensic says:

        Yeah, 4 game sweep with two of them walk-offs and another one lost in the A’s 8th inning AB.

        Tex, though, was .313/.333/.313 so not sure how awesome that was.

        • flamingo says:

          Hmmm. Thought I remembered him being the only person hitting, HRs and all? Guess not.

          • forensic says:

            Maybe it was Andruw Jones you were thinking of? He was, after all, 0-7 with 6 K’s in the series…

            Seriously though, Swisher, Martin, Cano, and Granderson hit their only homers that series. And all four of them were solo shots.

  180. trr says:

    Where them trolls at?

  181. Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting) says:

    The Doctor:

    Are you going to leave us all in suspense?

    • nsalem says:

      Your guess’ were great. I say he owes you $50.

    • nsalem says:

      I think the Doctor is no longer in the office.

    • Chris says:

      Yeah, those looked right..Don’t play around with money, sir. Get our your stamps and checkbook

    • The Doctor says:

      Sorry got distracted.

      Close, missed on the last 2. I like defensive first baseman better than mine though.

      • The Doctor says:

        I’ll give away the last 2. Tex is a Giant Flop (not actually, just in someone’s words) and Hafner’s clutch hitting since Singleton mentions that about 5 times a day.

        Impressive, 4 out of 6 though, I’ll give you a tip of my non-existent hat as a consolation prize.

  182. Chris says:

    Weren’t they playing Oakland at the stadium when they hit 2 grand slams? One was Russell Martin..They scored around 20 runs..good times

  183. Hall and Nokes says:

    Pineda hit 95 today? #tradewon

  184. OldYanksFan says:

    Mo gives up 2 hits again in an inning.
    His numbers are great, but his pitches are lacking a bit.

  185. WhittakerWalt says:

    Oliver Perez’s facial hair should be illegal.

    • Chris says:

      That article is just terrible…and disrespectful to Michael Jordan. Comparing a relief pitcher to the greatest basketball player ever. Terrible

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