Jun
26

Sanchez ranks 26th on Baseball Prospectus’ Midseason Top 50 Prospects List

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Jason Parks at Baseball Prospectus published his midseason list of the the top 50 prospects in baseball yesterday (subs. req’d), a list that is predictably topped by Twins OF Byron Buxton. The second overall pick in last year’s draft put up a 173 wRC+ with eight homers and 32 steals in 68 Low-A games before being promoted a few days ago. Cardinals OF Oscar Taveras and Red Sox SS Xander Bogaerts round out the top three.

The Yankees have just one player on the list: C Gary Sanchez ranks 26th overall. That is up from 47th overall on the preseason list. “[Sanchez] somehow feels overrated at the mid-season point … high upside but equally high risk; bat is very good; positional home is still subject of debate,” wrote Parks. With nearly every one of New York’s top prospects taking a step back this year, their only real candidates for a top 100 list right now are Sanchez, RHP Rafael DePaula, and CF Slade Heathcott. That’s it.

Categories : Asides, Minors
  • JobaWockeeZ

    I don’t think they’ve scouted Sanchez at all if there’s they had to mention a debate about his position.

    • Will

      Seriously! All I’ve heard for the past year or so is that he is becoming a great defender and game caller. I mean his defensive stats keep improving every year. Doesn’t that mean he’s probably a good catcher? That being said. Our farm is just super depressing. Sanchez is our lone blue chip prospect.

      • Cool Lester Smooth

        We haven’t heard “great” we’ve heard “better.”

      • Gonzo

        I wouldn’t put too much weight in defensive stats in A-ball.

  • EndlessJose

    Yes and like all Yankees prospects in 3+ years he’ll become a back-up player.

  • Jonathan

    Murphy/Williams/Austin don’t have a shot?

    • Robinson Tilapia

      I don’t see what the hell luster Austin has lost.

      • Jonathan

        He was promoted aggressively and despite initially struggling he’s turned it around lately. Still needs to show a little more power but I wouldn’t think his value has changed much.

      • Different Josh

        Yeah, Austin has been fine, excluding the power. But since its a pitchers league that saps power, not the biggest deal. If anything I would have thought Slade lost some shine. He’s been healthy all year, and has not done especially well (with the bat at least).

        • Robinson Tilapia

          I’ve heard “pitcher’s league” over and over in regards to Austin. Seems logical to me that there would be some adjustment.

          We like it when our prospects shoot through the system, but I actually like to see how they respond to adversity before they get to the bigs.

      • Tom

        He has a wRC+ of 115… not terrible but not exactly great for a bat first corner OF prospect. He’s taken a step back with the bat from last year (wRC+ 144 in high A, 170 in A)

        The prospect rankings do look at age vs level (and whether they are repeating a level), but performance matters especially when you hit AA.

        I think that level of performance drops him off the list… he could certainly bounce back this year or next year, but if you are asking whether he has lost some prospect luster – at this point of the season, absolutely.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Hasn’t he been bouncing back for several months now?

          • Tom

            .739 OPS in Apr
            .773 OPS in May
            .758 OPS in June

            You asked how he lost luster… when a bat first corner OF is hitting 15% above league average after being 40-70% above average at previous levels you lose some prospect status.

            It doesn’t mean he’s not a prospect anymore but I think he would absolutely have to mash over the next 2 months to put himself back into the top 100 conversation next spring.

      • Cool Lester Smooth

        He’s kinda spent the last 3 months confirming scouts’ concerns about his power potential.

        Nick Markakis without the steals isn’t exactly an exciting upside.

        • Bo Knows

          Trenton is a big ballpark, bigger than Yankee stadium and the Eastern league is known as a pitchers league. Also Looking at Austin’s splits between home and away, its quite drastic. He’s probably not going to have 30 homer power, but he could easily have 15-20 especially playing half his games in the bronx, which suits his opposite field swing.

          IIATMS did two articles about the park and how it affects the Yankees prospects

          http://itsaboutthemoney.net/ar.....e-hitters/

          http://itsaboutthemoney.net/ar...../15/51198/

          • Cool Lester Smooth

            Yeah, Nick Markakis without the steals.

            • Bo Knows

              Can you explain how he’s like Nick Markakis or did you pull that comparison out of thin air? Different styled swings, different hands, different styles of play.

              • Cool Lester Smooth

                .270-.300 BA and 15-20 HRs every year in right field, while taking a fair share of walks and playing fine, but not great, defense seems to be a fair estimation of Austin’s upside.

                I honestly don’t know enough about scouting to make comparisons based on process. I’m just talking about end results.

    • Ethan

      Definitely no shot for Williams or Austin. Highly unlikely for JR Murphy.

      • Jonathan

        How can you say there is no shot for Austin when they aren’t to the All-Star break yet? It’s impossible to continue to adjust to a level and keep getting better there as a young kid in AA ball? What’s the basis for this zero shot prediction?

        • Robinson Tilapia

          They all loved it when Hughes sailed through the minors.

          • Jonathan

            I think all the super prospects like Machado/Trout/Harper going insane has just really warped people’s view on prospects. Hitting 15% above league average while being aggressively promoted and being young for your league, which as previously mentioned by several others is a large ballpark and pitcher’s league, and having half a season to adjust somehow screams can’t make the top 100. Impossible. I don’t understand the Slade deal either. He’s stayed healthy but played like shit. I think Mason has a lot of growing up to do and his skills will transfer later than others due to that but he’s one good month from being a top 100 prospect again.

            I’m not saying I’d bet that all these guys will make it next year but saying Mason/Murphy/Ramirez/Austin have no shot at cracking the top 100 strikes me as odd. Murphy is all the way up to AAA where his defense is gaining praise and he’s hitting well. Everyone complains that we only have guys in A ball that are worth anything and nothing close to the majors and that takes their value down, but somehow him being in AAA for over 1/2 the year (most likely) doesn’t boost his value?

    • OhioYanks

      I think that they have much more of a shot than Slade and are nice prospects, but top 50 is fewer than two prospects per team. I’m not exactly surprised none made it.

      • Gonzo

        I believe he’s talking about this:

        With nearly every one of New York’s top prospects taking a step back this year, their only real candidates for a top 100 list right now are Sanchez, RHP Rafael DePaula, and CF Slade Heathcott. That’s it.

        That would mean he’s talking about the top 100 not the top 50. You can ask him to clarify though.

        • Jonathan

          Yeah, Gonzo. That’s exactly what I meant. Thanks

  • YankeeFan

    I know Austin isn’t showing much HR power but his .273/.365/.393 line isn’t really that bad especially when you consider his away numbers: .293/.392/.459.

    • pat

      Wow, hadn’t realized he had such drastic home/away splits.

      • Cool Lester Smooth

        Trenton KILLS power.

  • W.B. Mason Williams

    Tyler Austin has adapted much better to AA than Heathcott…if he starts there next season he’d likely be at AAA a month or two after.

  • Scot

    Peter O’brian at high A Tampa will be good Big, Strong and hits for average

    • OhioYanks

      He is, but he’s also about to turn 23 after a four year college career. He should have dominated Low A. His defense is also still really questionable and he has 16 PBs in 55 Gs. He’ intriguing, but top 50 in baseball boils down to an average of fewer than two prospects per team.

  • Adam

    What about Jose Ramirez? I think he definitely gets in by season’s end, especially if he continues to do well at AAA. He was also on Keith Law’s Top 110 list before the season.

  • Mike

    Xander Bogaerts and 3 Red Sox prospects in the top 50? Ridiculous. I don’t trust any list which overrates Boston’s prospects this much.

    • Cool Lester Smooth

      Xander Bogaerts, overrated? You’re kidding, right?

      He’s a 20 year old who should stick at SS for the next few years. He just finished dominating AA and is currently holding his own in AAA despite an extremely low BABIP. It’s a testament to how amazing Buxton and Taveras have been that he’s not the top prospect in baseball right now on every single list.

      • Tom

        The Twins farm system overall has really put together a tremendous year. That used to be a really weak system not too long ago.

        • Cool Lester Smooth

          Yeah, it’s nuts what sucking for 3 straight years can do for your farm system.

          • Cool Lester Smooth

            (2 straight years, really. 2013 isn’t done yet)

  • OhioYanks

    How does Slade have a shot? He is performing far worse than Mason Williams or Tyler Austin. Plus his injury history is gnarly.

    I don’t really understand how Parks can call Sanchez “overrated” at the mid-season point. Didn’t he assign the rating? If you think he’s overrated at #26… move him down your list. What am I missing here?

    • Cool Lester Smooth

      Maybe he thinks the actual scouts that he’s talking to are overrating him?

      Just spitballing, it’s a pretty inane comment.

      • Gonzo

        Ummm, because it’s his list and he’s allowed form an opinion based on information he receives and write what he wants. Don’t be mad. I’m just trying to explain to you how this list works.

        • Gonzo

          My bad, this was meant for OhioYanks.

        • Cool Lester Smooth

          It doesn’t make sense to write that he’s overrating Sanchez, though. It’s his list, so if he feels that Sanchez is too high, he should just drop him down a few spots.

          • Gonzo

            Happens all the time in prospect lists though. I’ve read people say, “I think have him ranked too low because I’m a big believer in his _____.”

  • Gonzo

    For everyone going insane about the top 100 prospect comment, you have to realize it’s a zero sum game.

    You can’t just say this guy deserves to be top 100 because he is only underperforming a little. You have to say that he is performing well enough to exclude other exciting prospects from the list. Since most of us mainly follow the Yankees farm and top tier prospects closely, it’s a very difficult discussion to have on a Yankee blog.

    For example, the Yankee trio were ranked ahead of Joc Pederson on every list this offseason. However, Joc is not only outperforming all three in AA, he is younger than all of them too. Now you have to find all the Joc Pedersons from every farm and make arguments for the Yankee trio over them.

    • OhioYanks

      Not sure that a single commenter is going insane or even upset that they didn’t make it. Every single one that I see talked about the Yankees’ prospects had a chance. Because Mike said they only had three candidates (and for some reason choose Slade as one of the three…).

      Thanks for explaining how a top 50 prospect list works, though. I was a little confused.

      • Gonzo

        Not sure what I’m supposed to do with this. If you are just trolling me, that’s fine. Go ahead with your bad self.

  • Cool Lester Smooth

    The real question is how Heathcott, who has a worse average, a worse OBP and the same SLG as Mason Williams and a 20 point lower wOBA, is a better bet to make a top 100 list, especially now that Williams has been heating up.