Jul
22

Fan Confidence Poll: July 22nd, 2013

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Record Last Week: 1-2 (14 RS, 14 RA)
Season Record: 52-46 (387 RS, 389 RA, 49-49 pythag. record), 7.0 GB ALE/3.5 GB WC
Opponents This Week: @ Rangers (four games, Mon. to Thurs.), vs. Rays (three games, Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Categories : Polls

80 Comments»

  1. trr says:

    I’m at a “4”. Mathematically, we’re still in it, realistically, not so much….
    The results from the farm team have been inconsistent. It may take a while
    to turn the ship around. For the first time, I’m wondering if re-signing Cano
    to a huge contract is such a good thing. These big, long-term contracts only lead to ruin…

    • your mom says:

      But it got us a championship in 2009.

      • KD says:

        One ring in 12 years with how much post-season heartache?

        • JLC 776 says:

          One ring in 12 years is still nothing to be embarrassed about. Hell, after surviving the 80′s and the first half of the 90′s, 1996 was enough to keep me going for ten years regardless of what happened afterwards!

          The last ten years (2003-2012) have been interesting from a pure probability point of view (all teams being equal).

          1 WS Championship
          2 WS appearances
          5 ALCS appearances
          8 Division Series appearances

          All teams being equal (and I know they aren’t), we’ve exceeded expectations in the division series (5 for 8) and have fallen short in league championship series (2 for 5).

        • Jim Is A (Bored) Peckerhead says:

          Flags fly forever.

          Money buys a postseason appearance. Doesn’t buy a championship.

          Just gotta get there. If it’s random, you get a 1/8 chance of winning once you’re in. 1 in 12 is not that weird.

        • Robinson Tilapia says:

          Five in 17 years. Amazing how different things can look when you move the start date a bit.

          They went 86 years without one at Fenway. Maybe that’s why bring up 2004 so often. Maybe they goddamn deserve to bring it up whenever they want because of what they went through to get there.

      • trr says:

        No one is ever embarassed by our glorious history. But the game changes and so must we. The current ownership with it’s profit- driven bottom line (anyone who’s set foot in the shopping mall they call a beseball park knows whereof I speak) seems ill suited to use such a business model; they’ll choose the fading, big name stars over long term strategy every time. For NY fans, it’s kinda like what the Rangers/Knicks were doing a decade ago, except writ (much) larger.

        2009 was great, but it has been 1 Championship in 12 years (with little on the horizon). This ain’t the Miami Marlins folks; This is the NEW YORK YANKEES, the premier sports franchise in the world. We need to be better and smarter than everybody else. IMO, we can no longer buy our way to championships; we’ve got to develop them. And yes, I’m willing to step back a year, 2, 3, to let this happen. Been here since I was knee high to a grasshopper; 50 seasons. I’ve seen the good, the bad, and the ugly. In truth, this season is really none of those, it’s more of a transition season, but we don’t know what we’re transitioning to!

        Sorry to rant on, I’ll shaddup for a while…..

  2. Robinson Tilapia says:

    Baseline 6.

    Less than even money for 2013, so let’s say a 4 there.
    Slightly above even money for 2014, so let’s say 6 there.
    Always bullish beyond that, so 8 for “beyond.”

    Individual weeks, games, etc., just aren’t going to move the needle much. They’re a slightly overachieveing version of who we thought they were this year.

    • Jim Is A (Bored) Peckerhead says:

      I’m down to a 6 from a 7. I’m just getting frustrated with constant injury setbacks.

      Oh well.

    • JLC 776 says:

      I’m bullish beyond ’14, but next year terrifies me!

      • Robinson Tilapia says:

        Very fair.

        The only thing I’m terrified as to 2014 about is how much it could like 2013, except we’re all a year older. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen.

        I’ll still be here.

  3. Dicka24 says:

    I know it’s blasphemous to say so as a Yankees fan, but I really think the Yankees should consider selling at the deadline. I’d only want them to do it if they were going to get useful pieces in return though. If they could get legit upper level talent for guys like Kuroda & Cano, they should consider it. The game is changing, and building through free agency is the worst road to travel. The team could use an infusion of good, young, high end talent, even if it means taking a step back this year. They could always resign Cano and Kuroda in the offseason. What would the Dodgers give you for a package of Kuroda and Cano? How about the Tigers?

    • Robinson Tilapia says:

      It’s not blasphemous at all. I think it’s a legitimate POV, just one that I don’t agree with right this moment. It’s not even an easy “no” for me.

      • I'm One says:

        Yeah, it’s becoming more and more difficult not to think that selling should be seriously considered (maybe it is being considered by Cashman & Co). While my confidence remains at a 7 overall, (I take the long term view; not sure they’ll make the playoffs this season,as they haven’t made a move either by choice or availability of quality players) I have very serious doubts about making the playoffs this season. Even if everyone returns (A-Rod, Jeter, Granderson) and is productive, I think they need another 1 or 2 players. If they can’t get what they want, selling has to be an option. Staying with the team they have seems like a poor decision.

      • mitch says:

        I still think they should be buyers, but if they’re not going to do that, they should be sellers. If they keep moving along with this squad they’ll just slowly slip further back in the standings.

        I could get on board with either option. Buy some pieces and go for it in 2013. Sell some pieces and add to the farm. Please pick one. The 3rd option of doing nothing is by far the worst.

        • Robinson Tilapia says:

          There are also pros to doing nothing. Let’s not fully discount that. The con is that there’s a good chance it guarantees a nice fight that falls short in the end. There’s advantages to keeping everyone and handing out QO’s like candy.

          • mitch says:

            Who do you think would get a QO? Kuroda? I’m assuming Cano will be resigned, so i don’t really include him in the “sell” plan. Would they give a QO to Hughes or Granderson with the 189 thing? I don’t think they would.

            • your mom says:

              After we miss the playoffs this year, Hal & Hank will say “Fuck 189.”

            • Robinson Tilapia says:

              I’m not necessarily advocating for it. I’m just saying there’s pros to “buy,” “sell,” and “stand pat.”

              My own tea-leaf reading makes me not 100% sure they stick with the celery cap. Hal said “as long we field a championship-contending team.” I’m curious if, at the end of the year, he winds up defining this as that.

            • Winter says:

              Granderson definitely gets a QO. Hughes, probably not.

          • lightSABR says:

            I like the QO’s, too, but if we’re not going to re-sign Cano, I have to think that one late first-round pick isn’t anything like adequate compensation. We could probably get a couple of very solid prospects for renting him out, which would be much better than giving him a QO.

            • lightSABR says:

              Granderson is probably a different situation. Given his current injury, the compensation pick might be more valuable than whatever they could get for him in a trade.

    • pat says:

      In a vacuum that’s the complete right decision to make. We need an infusion of young talent and trading Cano is the best way to achieving that. I think the days of us consistently being one piece away from contending are over for the time being so we’d be better off trying use Cano to plug multiple holes instead of tying up 200 mil in salary for the next 6 or 7 years. Unfortunately though a complete rebuild seems very unlikely due to ownership and we will have to keep slapping pieces of duct tape on this jalopy.

      • Kosmo says:

        I don´t think there are any teams outside of NY and the LA Dodgers who would be willing to shell out a mega-buck longterm contract to Cano. So just maybe trading Cano to the Dodgers is a not such a bad idea. The return would be decent. NY might have to write off 2014. 2015 could be an interesting season, we might get to see the farm system begin paying off.

    • Darren says:

      The Yankees are not trading Cano.

      Say it again.

      The Yankees are not trading Cano.

      So get that out of your mind, it just is not happening.

      And I doubt they trade Kuroda either, as I’m sure they are hoping to sign him for next year as well. Maybe if they get a quality Major league hitter would they do that. But not just for prospects. Like it or not, there’s no fucking way in hell the Yankees become strict sellers in the next few weeks. Not when they’re just a few games back of the Wild card. I could see them selling some pieces but ONLY if they can frame it as impriving the team for THIS year AND the future. They will not do a prospects only deal unless it’s for relatively spare parts like Hughes, Joba, Logan, or Nuney.

      The only question is w

      • Robinson Tilapia says:

        I’d say it’s less than 5% it happens UNLESS the team really starts feeling like they’re not going to re-sign him and this really goes to shit in the next week.

        I don’t think either of those happens. I think the almost-blank check is sitting there for him at the end of the season.

        • Pat D says:

          I don’t care how bad they fall apart, I’m not trading Cano unless they get a package slightly less than Saltalamacchia/Andrus/Feliz/Harrison.

          I know that’s not a fair comparison since Teixeira was still a year from free agency and it was different CBA terms, but still.

          Not trading Cano unless they get an offer that blows them away.

      • Kosmo says:

        I think we can all agree it´s very doubtful NY would even consider trading Cano. For the sake of discussion it does raise certain possibilities. If LA comes calling asking for Cano/Kuroda in exchange for Pederson, Seager and Lee and 1 other piece NY would certainly have to listen.
        Also I doubt Kuroda would be willing to resign with NY given the possible state NY might be in this offseason.

        • Darren says:

          Could the Yankees tell Cano that, hey we’re gonn atrade you for blue chip prospects to make the team better, but a the end of the season, regardless of what you do on the field, barring injury, we’ll sign you for the $200mm that you’re looking for?

          I suppose that’s possible, obviously not enforceable, and doubtful it would ever happen.

  4. Murderers' Row Boat says:

    I’m growing more confident that my nights will be free in October.

  5. Frank says:

    I feel I’m being generous with a 4. Don’t like the look of the next 3 years. As for this season, they should sell, but they won’t.

  6. Kosmo says:

    FWIW I´m going to suspend judgement until the trade deadline.

    A lot depends on a red wheelbarrel, excuse me I mean alot could depend on Sabathia and the SP holding up.
    Yanks have to be buyers to make the playoffs. 2-3 bats in the bush are better than the 1 at hand.

  7. steves says:

    It’s been the perfect bad storm of injuries, bad/boring baseball, a front office that has been reduced to dumpster dumping as its only real option, a minor-league system with no ready to help now talent, a fan base that is starting to express its displeasure with its pocketbook that is hurting revenues, a punitive tax system that would give any rational ownership pause as to unchecked spending, a marketplace shifting towards a Met team with some tremendous young pitching and money to spend starting next year; a great website reduced to rooting for Kabak to munch a hat; Wow, with apologies to the Beatles, I need a fix of some baseball serotonin because I’m going down.

    • Darren says:

      Nobody cares about the Mets except Mets fans right now.

      • Robinson Tilapia says:

        I don’t think that’s true at all. I think Matt Harvey’s a wonderful story, and I think a lot of fans think that as well.

        • trr says:

          I’d never admit it to my Met-Fan friends, but I’m a little jealous of the Mets now…Harvey IS a wonderful story and there is hope on the horizon for them, an infusion of youth, energy, and optimism. Compare to our dreary season where we sit through injury afier injury, AAAA players, washed up has-beens, and 3 more years of this one, 4 more years of that one…if it wasn’t for Mo, I think this season would be close to unbearable. But Mo “saved” it again!

        • Darren says:

          Agreed that people think Harvey is a great story and there’s interest in him and Wheeler, but it’s totally in a vacuum. There’s ZERO interest in the Mets as a team, except due to the association with Harvey. They have absolutely nothing else going on. D’arnaud is still a phantom and there’ mired in more losing. There’s certainly no “marketplace shift” towards the Mets.

        • your mom says:

          Matt Harvey is bad-ass.

    • Tom K says:

      There really isn’t much of a market shift to the Mets…and even if there was, does it really matter? I doubt it.

  8. Bubba says:

    I believe it is time to sell. The corner the cavalry is around seems to be getting larger as we type and my confidence in their ability to help in a meaningful way is shaken. We have one starter that inspires confidence. Get what you can for whatever is not nailed down and look to 2015 and beyond.

    It stinks that Mo would have to go out in a down year and watching Robbie play for another team will hurt for a few years but long term our outlook will be better.

  9. Brian S. says:

    I hate that this organization is so scared of selling off pieces. There are quite a few players on this team that likely won’t be back next year that we could get good prospects for.

    • Brian S. says:

      The organization being so inflexible is why I am voting 3. Still have a large payroll and good depth in the farm system but the current product is mediocre and aside from possibly JR Murphy no blue chippers that can step in and produce right away. All that good depth is still over a year away.

      • Robinson Tilapia says:

        JR Murphy’s a blue-chipper now?

        • Dalek Jeter says:

          Duh, half a season’s success in AAA, he’s number 1 in Brian S.’s top prospect list (this is in all of baseball, obviously)

          • Oy says:

            Yes, let’s ingore the fact that he’s hit above average in every single level, every year except for 2012 where he was slightly below average.

            • Dalek Jeter says:

              And the end of 2011 when he was way below average (70 wRC+) in High A ball, and the fact that outside of this year in AAA he’s only ever succeeded in a league after repeating it.

              Listen, I’m not saying that JR Murphy (or John Murphy according to Fangraphs) can’t be a good player or will never be a good player. I’m just saying there’s a reason it’s taken him 5 years to advance 3 levels, repeated every level at least once, and isn’t on any scout’s top 100 list.

              • Oy says:

                Fair enough, and yet Sanchez is repeating high A and is not destroying it. I’m not saying that Murphy is a better prospect than Sanchez. I believe that Sanchez is overrated while Murphy is underrated.

                What I’m saying is that having him hit 123+ wRC+ while splitting time between AA/AAA a year from now is the best course of action. Which is right where Muprhy is.

        • Oy says:

          Player A: 22 years old Catcher
          .377 wOBA, 131 wRC+ in AAA

          Player B: 20 years old Catcher
          .351 wOBA 118 wRC+ in A+, while repeating the level

          Player B is considered to be a top 25 prospect in all of majors by many. Player A is not a top 100 prospect. Why?

          • Dalek Jeter says:

            Because player B (Who I’m guessing is Gary Sanchez?)has been mashing at every level he’s ever played baseball at ever and has only been in the MilB systems for 2 and a half years whereas player A is 2 full years older, has 2 more years in the MilB systems, and has played at every level but triple A twice.

            • Oy says:

              “Mashing” is a very strong word. Two years of consecutive 117/118 wRC+ at the same level is not “mashing”. Sanchez mashed in A ball and Rookie ball. How many prospects go from mashing at those levels to never making it past AA?

              I think it’s pretty safe to safe that Yankees would be very happy with Sanchez’s development is he posts a combined 123+ wRC+ while splitting time between AA/AAA a year from now.

          • your mom says:

            SSS.

          • Robinson Tilapia says:

            To be honest, I don’t put a ton of stock into “blue chip” and all that, but I do think of it more as a pedigree a guy comes into the pros with and not something that suddenly happens in AAA.

            JR Murphy is a great story, and I will gladly take a picture next to his plaque in Monument Park someday. I just disagree with Brian’s assessment. Actually, I often disagree with Brian’s assessment.

          • Mike Axisa says:

            Because box scores don’t determine prospect status.

            Besides, Murphy was sub-100 wRC+ just last season. His 2012-13 HR total equals what Sanchez did in 2012 alone.

  10. hornblower says:

    Sometimes the stars are not aligned. This year has been a mess. They know it and there is no solution. They are getting ready for next year in spite of what is said publicly.
    Murphy should be a candidate for third base next yr. He has played there some and you know they are going to need a new one.

    • mitch says:

      They also need a catcher. What’s wrong with him staying there?

      • hornblower says:

        If he can hit he needs to stay on the field. He can catch some but Cervelli etc. can do an adequate job. Offensive catchers are rare, the Yanks have been lucky in that regard. They really need someone good at third going forward.

  11. LarryM Fl says:

    5. We all watch the games. The product is in front of us. We relied on our starting pitching to keep us in the games until inning 7+. Now CC,Andy, Hughes are being pounded. The parks in the AL East require superior pitching to win.

    No action for Hughes or Joba, this sends a big time message about the talent perceived from these two former BLUE CHIPPERS.

    The team is still playing hard but can not generate the XBH with runners on base or productive outs when needed. The FO has not DFA Hafner. The guy is horrible and the backups on the bench just “Bad News Bearish.” In the very near future it will be time for Girardi to throw the towel once again before someone gets hurt out there.

  12. iced coffee says:

    I think it is foolish to go above a 6 for long term. This season has exposed the Yankees for reverting back to a model that limited their success much like in the late 80′s/early 90′s. Too many bloated contracts for declining talent + poor farm system construction will take longer to fix. Best option is to pull a Red Sox and trade/sell what they can and reposition the team for 2014 and beyond.

    • Oy says:

      Are you not excited for 2013′s offseason? There are greats players who will hit the market that Yankees will pursue. Todd Helton will make for a great DH. Betancourt will split time with Jeter at SS and A Rod at 3B. Mark DeRosa will be our super utility player.

    • KD says:

      But that would be smart. Think the Steinspawn are smart?

  13. Robinson Tilapia says:

    Schilling advocating for suspensions right now out of fear of Bartolo Colon leading the A’s to the playoffs while on steroid cheeseburgers on Cowherd’s show.

  14. your mom says:

    This team isn’t going to sell shit even if we lose the next 7 games in a row. Might as well keep Hughes and give him a QO because the pick we get will be more valuable than the crap he’ll net us in a trade. Cano & Kuroda would net us some nice pieces but it’s just not happening.

    Next year we’ll go back to our old FA spending spree and sign guys like Morse, McCann, Garza, Lincecum, and Balfour. Then we’ll re-sign Granderson, Kuroda and Cano. 2014 WS is in the books.

    • Oy says:

      That off season plan is exactly what will kill this team. Morse is a 31 year old, 4 fWAR career player. 3.1 war of that 4.0 war is coming from one year (2011). Granderson is a 32 year old who’s only remaining tool is power. Both are pretty bad fielders. Both will likely command multi year deals.

      Cano and Graza will cost a shit ton of money. While Lincecum is one of my favorite players, he’s just not worth the Edwin Jackson esque deal that he will net.

  15. JLC 776 says:

    Regarding the future – think about the perspective of Red Sox fans this time last year. Even when they eventually dumped half of the team, the mindset was two or three years of rebuilding. Now look…

    Baseball can change in an instant (for better or for worse), even though we’re kind of conditioned to believe that it can’t.

    I’m not sure if this comment is meant to reassure or not – just a general observation.

    • Robinson Tilapia says:

      Can you imagine if this team was on a 93-loss pace? There’d be live suicide during game threads.

      • Jim Is A (Bored) Peckerhead says:

        I actually doubt that. If we were on a 93 win pace, a lot of regulars would be infrequent visitors(probably myself included) and the trolls would have nothing bringing them back. It’d be a lot quieter.

      • JLC 776 says:

        I would kill to see gamethreads (I know they don’t exist, but this is a thought experiment) from 1998 when the Yankees started 1 and 4 and none of the losses were even close.

    • Mac says:

      Good point. Bringing back a few healthy guys plus some big acquisitions (especially if no 189 plan) and this could be a totally different team next year.

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