Jul
24

Pedroia’s deal doesn’t set the market for Cano

By
(Presswire)

(Presswire)

Yesterday afternoon, word got out that the Red Sox and Dustin Pedroia had agreed to a new seven-year, $100M contract extension on top of his current deal, which runs through next season. All told, he is under contract for approximately $114M from now through the end of the 2021 season, when he’ll be 38 years old. It’s likely to be the last contract he signs during his playing career.

Naturally, we have to wonder what Pedroia’s new contract means for Robinson Cano. The two have been connected for the last half-decade only because they are the homegrown players on historic rivals who happen to play the same position. They’ll be linked forever just because of that, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that they’re both great players. Clearly the top two second basemen in baseball right now, in my opinion.

Here’s a real quick side-by-side comparison of their careers, from best seasons down to worst:

Source: FanGraphsRobinson Cano, Dustin Pedroia

The two are pretty much neck and neck in terms of overall production, but Cano has created some distance between himself and every other second baseman in recent years. Since the start of 2010, Robbie leads full-timers at the position with 23.5 WAR. Pedroia is a distant second at 18.4 WAR.

WAR is a nice quick reference tool but it has some major flaws, specifically its reliance on far from perfect defensive stats. Defensive stats that always seem to sell Cano short for whatever reason. WAR is even less helpful when talking about elite players who have real live money-generating marquee value  and are paid on a much different scale than everyone else. It’s not as simple as saying “this player has this WAR and makes this much, therefore that player with that WAR should make that much.”

On the surface, it appears as though Pedroia’s new contract means Cano should expect a lot less than the $200M-whatever he’ll be seeking. These are two very different players though, and there are a number of reasons why that isn’t the case. Let’s break ‘em down:

Power vs. No Power
Absolutely nothing in baseball pays like power, especially in this suddenly power-starved era. Homers drive up prices exponentially, and Cano happens to hit a lot of them for a second baseman, especially compared to Pedroia. In fact, Cano has hit exactly as many homers this year as Pedroia has hit over the last two years (21). Pedroia’s career homer total (96) is as many as Cano has hit since July 2010. Power pays and Robbie has an enormous advantage in that department. There’s no comparison here, Cano blows his Red Sox counterpart out of the water.

Durable vs. Injury Prone
A hamstring injury cost Cano about five weeks back in June 2006, but otherwise he’s been an iron man for the Bombers. He’s played in at least 159 games (!) in each of the last six years (!!!), and his days off usually come from Joe Girardi getting him off his feet rather than some nagging day-to-day injury. Robbie is one of baseball’s most durable players, no doubt about it.

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

(Mike Stobe/Getty)

Pedroia, on the other hand, has played in just 476 of 588 possible games since the start of 2010. Two separate left foot fractures sidelined him for 85 total games in 2010, and a nagging thumb issue sent him to the sidelines for a total of three walks in 2012. Heck, he’s playing through a torn thumb ligament right now. Pedroia has only once played as many 159 games in a season whereas Cano does it year after year. Another advantage for Robbie.

Hardware vs. No Hardware
Major awards pay well, though not as well as power (or saves). Pedroia was the 2007 AL Rookie of the Year and 2008 AL MVP, so his mantle is well-stocked. Cano has … three top-six finishes in the MVP voting? He was the 2005 Rookie of the Year runner-up, so there’s that. Robbie has never won a major award, which takes away from his resume ever so slightly. You may laugh, but this kind of stuff gets brought up in contract negotiations all the time.

Extension vs. Free Agent Contract
This is the big one here. The Red Sox already had Pedroia under contract through 2014 with an affordable club option for 2015, so there was no bidding war. They had exclusive negotiating rights and zero urgency to hand out a nine-figure contract. Actually, there probably was some urgency to get it done now just to make sure Cano’s next deal didn’t jack up the price. Players tend to give a bit of discount by signing an extension, and Pedroia appears to have done just that with this deal.

Barring something surprising over the next 15 weeks or so, Robbie will hit the free agent market and be able to field any and all offers. Remember, he will be Roc Nation’s first big contract, and I doubt they’re looking to set a precedent by taking a discount. There will be a bidding war and the price will climb rather quickly. Signing an extension while already under contract and signing a new contract as a free agent are completely different animals. There’s a major difference in leverage.

* * *

The total value of Pedroia’s new contract is the largest ever for a second baseman, but the average annual value ($14M total through 2021) is just the second highest behind Ian Kinsler’s deal ($15M). He didn’t raise the bar all that much. Besides, Cano was all but guaranteed to land a nine-figure contract anyway. He wasn’t exactly waiting for someone to set that market.

The only thing Pedroia’s contract really does is define a term limit. He is ten months younger than Cano and is signed through age 38. If the Yankees were to sign Cano through age 38 this winter, it would require an eight-year contract. There have been rumors saying he will seek a ten-year contract, but I can’t see that happening at all. I don’t think the team will be handing out any ten-year deals to players on the wrong side of 30 anytime soon. Eight is the limit now, so there’s that.

The Red Sox got themselves a nice deal with Pedroia, the kind of deal I wish the Yankees would have given Cano about two years ago. He was represented by Scott Boras at that time and Boras very rarely does long-term extensions for his elite players, however. Ultimately, Pedroia’s deal doesn’t change much for the Yankees and Cano simply because Robbie is the better player. He’s the better player with more leverage by virtue of having more power, being more durable, and presumably having more suitors as a free agent.

Categories : Hot Stove League
  • http://www.twitter.com/_swarlesbarkley Mark Teixiera – Ghostbuster (formerly Drew)

    The MVP that Pedrioa won in ’08 is bullshit. That is all.

    • TCMiller30

      Haha damn, you beat me to it. I even wrote “that’s all” after mine, then decided to change it up a bit.

  • Robinson Tilapia

    Plus, little rat-men will always get paid less anyway.

    • Darren

      I Lol’d, espeically when I realized that this wasn;t a reference to anything other than the fact that Pedroia IS, in fact, a little rat-man. Cano is like, Mr. Dapper, International Man of Suave compared to that dirty, gritty little nebbish.

      He reminds of a guy in a horror movie who has to explore a sewer and would somehow drown in a flood of shit.

    • NakedMoleRat

      It’s not every day one gets to see a rug rat play major league baseball. It’s like he walked off the It’s a Small World ride in Disney Land, picked up a bat, and had at it. He’s like a real-life Hallmark channel movie. A modern day Eddie Gaedel. A mouse with a mitt!

      Oh, that little buckaroo!

  • TCMiller30

    Pedroia’s MVP was a complete joke. He wasn’t even the best player on his team that season.

    • thenamestsam

      But he was the heart and soul of the team. The grit and grind. The pulse and the lifeblood. The metronome. The straw that stirs the drink. The engine that makes it all go.

      Can your fancy pants numbers place a value on that many cliches?

      • first name only male – Retire 21

        This comment is multiple layers of greatness.

        • TCMiller30

          Agreed.

      • CFio

        yeah, I got your metronome right here buddy!!

  • stuart a

    Cano has more leverage!! no he does not. who is paying cano let’s say $25 per for 8 for a grand total of $200 mill.?

    I will tell you who is paying him that, NO 1…

    i give him 5 years at $25 if you want to overpay, if that is not enough, ADIOS.. He made $17 mill this year, call me a socialist, Cano already has made a ton . I would pay him 6 years at $20 mill and that is a overpay, dodgers just signed the cuban prospect for $6 mill per yr. i think for 7 years, sure he is not Cano but they are not going bonkers for Cano and they paid $42 mill or so for a gamble instead of over $100 mill for a guy.

    • Jim Is A (Bored) Peckerhead

      “Cano already has made a ton”

      And that’s completely, totally, 100% irrelevant to these negotiations.

      • The Talking Head

        Hence the Oba…errr Socialist reference.

    • Bob Buttons

      You socialist!

    • Laz

      Someone gave Hamilton 125/5 last winter, no doubt about it that Cano tops that.

  • The Talking Head

    One is the laser show, the muddy chicken…former MVP the de facto captain of a first place team. Meanwhile, in the Bronx there’s this lazy second baseman who had ties with Bio-Genesis. I believe they’re a band, and Cano is living in a land of confusion and the Yanks would be throwing it all away if they signed Cano to a long term extention. Even though the Muddy Chickens brother has mastered the art of the invisible touch, I’m sure Guy Pedroia was screaming no son of mine, or it’s all a misunderstanding. That is all. Genesis is a great band like Cano is a great second baseman. One has PED in their name the other, in their system.

    • BeanTooth

      Can I have some of what you’re smoking. Look like some seriously good shit.

      • Jim Is A (Bored) Peckerhead

        Dafuk why would you want to smoke that? Don’t most people use drugs to be less pissy and depressed?

    • jsbrendog

      yeah but is cano’s brother a pedo?

    • IRememberCelerinoSanchez

      I’m still trying to work out how a guy can be lazy and play 159 games a year for six years.

      But while everyone (reporters, players, management) say Cano is an incredibly hard worker with impeccable preparation, we should go with The Talking Head’s opinion, because I’m sure he knows better than people who actually, you know, see what Cano does on a day-to-day basis.

      • The Talking Head

        I was trying to fit all the http://tinyurl.com/k9de4aa in.

        • Former ACE MannyGeee

          With the link in hand, I can now appreciate your genius. Fucking brilliant, good on you.

          • Robinson Tilapia

            Except half that list was 80′s stuff.

            • The Talking Head

              The best stuff!

              • Lukaszek

                80′s stuff is the greatest stuff

    • Hardcore Yankee Fan

      I think you are being WAY too kind to Cano.

    • Cool Lester Smooth

      I love “No Son of Mine.”

    • Gonzo

      I think this was a great post.

  • Evan3457

    5 yrs/100 million; heck 4 yrs/$100 million.

    If that’s not enough, vaya con Dios, amigo.

    • Paco Dooley

      You would make a poor GM – that is not where near the going rate – look at Josh Hamilton for comparison.

      The negotiations presumably start at 6 for 150

      • Bleed Pinstripes

        Agreed!! lets be realistic here. Cano is one of the best players in the game, home grown, durable and 30 years old. It will be somewhere south of 8 yrs and 200 mil. but not much. I know we got burned on Tex and Arod but I cant imagine the Yanks letting Cano sign somewhere else unless he is offered over 8 yrs and 200 mil.

  • OldYanksFan

    Agree that the MVP was Bullshit!
    No doubt Cano is more valueable, but my question is… how much more.
    At 8/$180m ($22.5 AAV), that’s something like 70% more. And there is talk that Cano might get more than that.

    Bottom line is the Sox got a reasonable deal with the Midget, where as Cano’s contract will ultimately cost far more per WAR.

    Also, obviously, it’s harder to find an impact bat that’s a middle infielder. So Cano scores very high on WAR (which is positionally dependent). But from the teams perspective, $22.5m/yr usually lands someone with a .900 OPS (Where Cano is at .858).

    So is the team better off spending that money on a Braun/Fielder type?

  • trr

    I don’t see any relevance, any connection at all between the 2.
    If you think the contract Cano will eventually sign will be anywhere in this neighborhood, well, call me about that famous bridge, OK?

  • CONservative governMENt

    I think Pedroia has a connection with his local market that Cano does not, in terms of how fans would feel if he left, jersey sales, etc. Somewhat similar to how Jeter or Rivera leaving the Yankees would have been perceived.

    Cano is a great player and the Yankees need him from a talent perspective, but if he wants an historic deal I think the Yankees could let him walk (one more for Kabak!). I’m really hoping the Yankees have learned the lesson about $20+ million long-term deals.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      You think the fanbase doesn’t have that sort of connection to Robbie? That’s crazy.

      • Mister D

        Really? Most of the “lazy Cano” stuff comes from NY, not from national media or from non-Yankee fans. Pedroia could murder a friend and then be discovered to have murdered two other people the year before and literally no one in New England would turn on him. Him and Brady are completely, universally unhated. Basically how we treat Mariano.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          I don’t think the “lazy” stuff comes from a significant part of the fanbase. I also think we need to remember that he’s the highest profile Carribean baseball player in NY right now. Jay Z’a about to put him on every billboard in town, etc. I think there’s definitely a connection between humans NY that will only magnify when Mo and Jeter are gone.

          • Mister D

            I’d like to believe that, but to find any fault in his game right now is basically ridiculous yet you still hear it. I imagine once he starts a downturn, it’ll get ugly. “Cano got his money and now he doesn’t try” will be dummy for “Cano is aging like 2Bs tend to age”.

    • OldYanksFan

      Furthermore, Robbie (and his Dad) understand that being a Great Yankee transcends better a great any-other-team-player. I agree that his attachment to NY is not as great as the Midget’s is to Boston, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t understand the benefits and history of being a lifetime Yankee.

      A contract that MIGHT actually get Cano and won’t hurt the Yankees too much is around 6/$130m or 7/$150m. At $150m, we need to get back around 30 WAR, which isn’t crazy. Even if we get back 25 WAR, that’s not a horrible overpay for a team as rich as the Yanks.

      Another thing to consider when looking at a long term contract, is the ability to walk. You have to assume a player is his mid/late 30′s will lose batspeed and BA. Unfortunately, if Robbie’s BA drops to .260, his OBP is probably around .310, which borders on being a liability.

      Currently, Swisher is having a poor-ish year.
      His Ba is at .242.
      Yet his OBP is .345, which still helps his team, even though overall, he is underachieving a bit.

      Right now, my absolute TOP dollar is 8/$160m.
      HOWEVER….
      if the Yanks end up saving $25m or more on ARod’s suspension (which I’m 99% sure they will), than I MIGHT go up to $170.
      I believe it’s an overpay, but that is the reality of the FA market.

      IN OTHER NEWS……………
      The boys on ‘Morning Joe’ spent some time discussing ‘The ARod Situation’. Mike Barnicle said he has sources that insist MLB wants ARod out of the game, and that ARod tampered with evidence. I think that a 150 game suspension is a MINIMUM we can look forward to.

      I believe it will turn out that ARod will be a ‘True Yankee’, because there’s a good chance he won’t cost us (maybe the insurance Co.) that much more money!

      • Cool Lester Smooth

        He’s walking 11.5% of the time right now. If his BA was .260 his OBP would be like .355, not .310.

        • OldYanksFan

          Career .308 BA, .354 OBP. A .046 Difference.
          In only three of his 9 years, has his OBP been .050 (or more) higher than his BA. This year is an outlier, as the team is so shitty, they ain’t pitching to Robbie.

          His best full year (last year), the difference was 0.066.
          So pray tell, where do you get a .095 difference from?
          (Certainly not MY asshole.)

          • Brian Cashman (by way of Cool Lester Smooth)

            I pulled the .95 difference from math, actually. If he maintains his current walk rate his OBP would be around .355 if his BA was .260, since he currently has an identical walk rate to Russell Martin, who has a .251 BA and a .352 OBP.

            Also, while it does look nice to say that his OBP’s only been .050+ higher than his AVG 3 times in the past 9 years, it’s more accurate to say that it’s been .050 or more higher 3 times in the past 4 years. Cano has genuinely improved his selectivity. Even if his walks return to his 2010/2012 levels, he would have a .330-ish OBP with a .260 average.

        • Lukaszek

          Cano’s plate discipline is starting to improve majorly. He might become an annual 60-70 walk guy, which isn’t bad

  • vicki

    is pedey standing on a box in that picture?

    • The Talking Head

      Rubber uppers.

    • Former ACE MannyGeee

      Cano is squatting.

      • vicki

        yes, you workin’ on them glutes, robbie.

  • Jacob the OG

    ROBBIE SHOULD HAVE WON IN ’05 THANK YOU AND GOOD NIGHT!

    OH WAIT, FUCK RAT BOY!

  • http://twitter.com/matt__harris Matt : Sec100

    my limit with Cano has always been 6years, $150 million.

  • The Talking Head

    Fun fact: Since 2008, despite playing in 113 fewer games, Pedoria has out WAR’d Cano 33 to Robbie’s 31.7 per baseball reference.

    • vicki

      way to distort the story by picking 2008 as the starting year.

      • http://twitter.com/matt__harris Matt : Sec100

        to be fair, can’t we say the same for picking 2010?

        • The Talking Head

          Cano is the better player right now, IMO. But he’s not worth fifty percent more than The Muddy Chicken. The difference is incremental. Since 2010, Cano is worth 7 more WAR with roughly 100 more games played. More durable, more power and more like to fall off a cliff, IMHO.

    • Former ACE MannyGeee

      Plot Twist: WAR is a metric that was developed by Bill James under the explicit direction of the Red Sox management with the intent of screwing the Yankees.

      • OldYanksFan

        Career bWAR:
        R. Cano: 42.4/8 seasons + 2013
        Dustpan: 36.2/7 seasons + 2013

        Career fWAR:
        R. Cano: 35.24/8 seasons + 2013
        Dustpan: 32.3/7 seasons + 2013

        That’s almost exactly a wash.

        • The Talking Head

          Dustpan, I laughed.

        • Former ACE MannyGeee

          change the batteries in your ‘sarcaso-meter’, would ya?

    • TCMiller30

      Thanks solely to the bogus fielding metrics. If you really believe Pedroia is 83.4 UZR (Pedroia +55.8 vs. Cano -27.6) better than Cano over his career then I guess your point is valid. How any stat can view Cano as a negative fielder is beyond me.

      • The Talking Head

        Cano needs to add a hop to his first step, THAT is what UZR is looking for.

    • Cool Lester Smooth

      2008 is Robbie’s worst year and Pedroia’s second best year. Cano has 1.5 more bWAR than Pedroia since 2007, and he has 5.4 more bWAR than Pedroia since 2009, and the gap only keeps growing from there.

  • first name only male – Retire 21

    Maybe the Red Sox paid by the pound.

    Now that that is out of the way, The AAV is obviously not comparable, but I’d love to see Cano sign a 7 year deal. Even if it’s 7 years/$150 million.

  • Bavarian Yankee

    TRADE HIM!! Now seriously, look what the Cubs got for Garza. One can only dream about what the Yanks would get for Cano. And hey: they could still re-sign him in the offseason.

    btw: I agree with Matt, 6/150 would be my limit too.

    • The Talking Head

      I’m inclined to agree. If they could get some pieces to help make the re-building process easier, do it!

  • JLC 776

    The 2008 MVP was bullshit, but the 2006 MVP was completely ludicrous.

    Anyway, I think there’s no doubt that Cano is more valuable (and more valuable to the future of his current team than Pedroia is to his current team). But I still think Pedroia’s contract becomes part of the discussion. It has anchored the market to an extent and a fair offer can be made based off of increasing the value of Pedroia’s contract to match the perceived increased value of Cano.

    Or something.

    • OldYanksFan

      Let’s hope the other GMs agree with you.

      • JLC 776

        It’s no different than any other contract. There’s a fair value and there’s what someone is willing to pay. Usually someone is willing to pay much more than fair value – but it doesn’t mean you don’t discuss what ‘fair’ is and use it as an anchor.

  • LarryM Fl

    Robbie is an excellent baseball player. He is a foundation upon which a team can be developed. My concern is the development length. If the Cano (foundation) is signed to a long term contract (8 yrs.) similar to Pedoria. How useful will he be when the team is competitive? The farm system is at least 2 years away form providing enough young talent to fill the holes in the roster. That is if all players make it to the majors. Presently our farm system is middle of the road. The timing is real bad for a long term, expensive contract.

    I like Robbie but 6 years @150 million is my limit if I was Brian Cashman and ownership. We would probably loss Cano to another team. If we sign Robbie. He would be the star of a team for a few years more than likely going nowhere then be heading downward in ability. Its all about the timing. At least if we keep it to 6 years. There may be some production toward the end of the contract with a winning club through out the contract.

    Really if 150 million is not enough then I say Robbie really did not want to be here. I rather pay more dollars over a short period than a longer period of time.

    Pedroia and Cano are similar in that they play the same position, period.

  • Kosmo

    I keep wondering how many teams would be willing to shell out an 8 yr contract for Cano´s services ? Maybe NY and 1 or 2 other teams. But I think 6 maybe 7 yrs @ 22.5 is as far as I´d go.

    • mitch

      I’ve been wondering the same thing. Seems like it will be a bidding war between NYY and LAD. Who else is there?

      • http://twitter.com/matt__harris Matt : Sec100

        The Angels always seem to pull money out of no where…maybe them? haha.

        • mitch

          Yeah i guess they’re a possibility, but Kendrick is solid and signed for a few more years. Plus they’ve been burned with a couple huge contracts recently. I’d be pretty surprised if they got involved.

          • http://twitter.com/matt__harris Matt : Sec100

            yeah, I was only half serious. Dodgers for sure….dark horse…maybe the Cubs? It seems like they like Darwin Barney, but Cano is leaps and bouds ahead of him (obviously).

  • Former ACE MannyGeee

    I’d be OK with 8 years of Robbie (keeping in mind the “Victory Lap Theory”), but 10 scares the shit out of me. 8/180?

  • The Talking Head

    Lets use Mauers 8/184. How’s that working out? They surrounded their superstar with lackluster talent and the results have been the same. Instead of signing another 7-8 year deal, why not sign 3-4 guys and spread that money around. Mauer will continue to pass through waivers until the Halos claim him eventually.

    • OldYanksFan

      Mauer is a Catcher. You can count on more of a decline with him.

      • The Talking Head

        But he was also younger at the time of the extention. But I agree, catchers do wear down quicker.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      There’s a point you’re trying to make that has potential validity to it, but let’s not throw Joe Mauer out there as the line example.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Lone

      • The Talking Head

        Mauer was the first one that came to mind. What 7-10 year contracts have ended positive for both parties?

        • OldYanksFan

          Moose… Manny…. Giambi had a .925 OPS but lost ABs to the DL, Jeter. I agree many are bad, but some work out.

          • Bob Buttons

            Technically Moose was 6 year deal.

          • The Talking Head

            Jeter, yes. That was an amazing deal. If Robbie signed a long term deal that would be the best case. But for every Moose there’s a Zito and for every Jeter there’s an A-Rod. A-Rod’s deal would represent the worst case scenario.

            • Robinson Tilapia

              I was going to say Moose as well. Yes, for evey Moose there’s a Zito. Big contracts are a risk. No one will argue otherwise.

              Cowherd just had an interesting segment on this very topic now.

            • OldYanksFan

              In the 10 years of ARod’s 10/$250m contract with Hicks, he has posted over 70 WAR. Not a good contract, BUT A STEAL!

              • Lukaszek

                If A-Rod hadn’t opted out of his original 10 year contract, his average numbers for a season during the contract would’ve been .299/.394/.577 with 42 homeruns and 124 rbi. Not worth 30 million, but hardly a disappointment. His disappointing numbers are mostly due to the f*ckfest that happened when he opted out

          • Cool Lester Smooth

            The first A-Rod deal.

        • Bob Buttons

          Hop into the time machine and blow off the dust for this one. You can make a case and say Yanks got what they want out of Winfield for the most part. They just had problem building other parts.

          Other than that… *flips through pages rampantly* I know there’s something…

    • mitch

      that’s because they don’t have money to surround him with better players.

    • stuart a

      agree..

    • Bo Knows

      people really are overrating Mauer’s deal being an albatross, the always hits for a high average, has a high obp, the only issue is that he can’t catch every game. He’s never really had alot of power, and in that park you can’t expect him to hit many homers.

      • Cool Lester Smooth

        I think it’s just because Mauer got injured and had a bad season during the first year of his new deal, and people are stupid.

        Otherwise he’s been pretty fairly paid. The issue is that the Twins can’t afford to pay Mauer what he’s worth but, unless they decide to cut their payroll by another $100 million dollars after 2014, I don’t think that’s an issue for the Yankees.

  • stuart a

    bottom line is Cano is a better player then Pedroia but it is close.

    No way based on what Pedroia received Cano should get double what he signed for.

    Who is paying Cano $200 mill.? No other team is that insane. Yanks screwed up when Hank bid against himself on Arod and 10 years, no need to make the same mistake…

    Cano is 30, he is not going to be this player in 5 years let alone 7 or more, book that fact..

    if some team is going to give Cano 8 years and $200 mill., I say Cano can move on… He guarantees his new team nothing… Mike Trout is worth $200 mill., no 1 else today is worth that type of money based on age and value…No pitcher is worth that with the probability of injury, that includes Kershaw and Harvey..

    • mitch

      i’d give bryce harper 10/300 if he was a free agent after this season

      • The Talking Head

        What would you give Mike Trout, Manny Machado or Puig if they were FA?

        • Crime Dog

          Trout I’d give somewhere around 7-8 years at 180-200. Machado probably a little less and Puig maybe 100 million for 6 years.

          • The Talking Head

            I was just curious in which order you valued that young crop of players. So your order is Harper, Trout, Machado then Puig? Can’t be mad at that. My only quarrel would be, is Harper really that much better than Trout? I like Harper more but I think Trout is the better player.

            • mitch

              I personally prefer Harper, but I’d put him and Trout on the same level and give each of them 10/300. I’d probably give Machado 8/200 and Puig 5/100.

            • OldYanksFan

              Trout might be all-around better than Harper, but Harper was hitting MLB type moon shots when he was 15. He’s not as polished yet as some other young players. But if he matures and plays smarts, he will break more records than anyone else.

          • Mister D

            Maybe I’m alone here, but I’d pay Machado more than I’d pay Trout more than I’d pay Harper.

            • Carlos Danger

              For a SS/3B he’s crazy good, I’d have to think some of those doubles will turn into HRs once he fills out some more. The O’s should look at a Longoria type extention for Machado, though its prob too late.

              • Mister D

                I had late season seats a couple rows off 3B last year at Fenway and I’d say I spent 90% of the time just watching Machado. I was younger for early A-Rod, but I have to image that’s what he looked like in terms of fluidity and ease.

            • vicki

              you’re not alone; he’s a shortstop.

            • Former ACE MannyGeee

              Not crazy AT ALL. That good, that young and playing a premium position? He is a true ‘open the bank vault’ type player.

              • Lukaszek

                I don’t buy into the Harper hype. I’d choose Machado over Harper, since he plays a premium position and has stunning defense especially for a young player. Also, I think that once Machado becomes a bit older and stronger, he can legit be a 30 homerun guy. Trout is easily better than Harper at this point, I can’t imagine why anyone would choose Harper over him. Yes, Harper had a really good April, but Mike Trout had a really good year. Good year>>>Good April

                • Cool Lester Smooth

                  What’s the Harper hype? That he’s coming off the best age-19 season ever by both bWAR and fWAR? I think that just means that he’s historically great.

                  Harper has been very good whenever he’s played, he just missed a month with a knee injury because he plays like Pete Rose.

                  Harper is both younger and a much better hitter than Machado, it’s just not getting as much notice this year since Harper is actually just so much better at hitting that he was called up, and had his coming out party, last May.

                  Mike Trout is better than him right now. Manny Machado, however, has 5 fewer home runs and the exact same number of steals in 40 more games, while Harper has outperformed him in every significant offensive rate stat despite a 70 point lower BABIP.

                  I guess it just comes down to how much you value defense.

            • Cool Lester Smooth

              Nah, Trout and Harper are simply on another level offensively.

              It’s impressive that Machado’s been an above average offensive player as a 20 year old, but Trout and Harper (who is 3 months younger than Machado) have been elite.

          • OldYanksFan

            Puig looks very good, but ya know…. shouldn’t we let him get 2 years under his belt before handing him the keys to the city?

            • Cool Lester Smooth

              Or 300 PA?

              Seriously, though, it’s impressive that he’s been almost as good as Jeff Francoeur was over his first 180 PA even though he doesn’t have nearly as much power or as good an approach.

      • Cool Lester Smooth

        I’d give Harper and Trout 15/400 without blinking. It will probably be a discount in terms of AAV what they get once they hit free agency.

        • Cool Lester Smooth

          (Well, I’d blink a little, but not too much)

  • OldYanksFan

    From Lohud:

    “Might see a little more of Lillibridge at third base. Luis Cruz is almost certainly heading for the disabled list, and it looks like David Adams is being called up to take his place. Cruz hurt himself trying to make a sliding catch last night. “Inning by inning it was getting worse,” Cruz said. “The last inning, it starts swelling, and I don’t know how I finished the game. Today, when I wake up, it was really big, and I couldn’t walk good.”

    Cruz is getting an MRI when the Yankees get back to New York. He said the early indication is that it’s an MCL problem. He’s wearing a massive brace that runs from his foot to just above the knee.”

    And another one bites the dust.

    • Bob Buttons

      Today, when I wake up, it was really big, and I couldn’t walk good.”

      Even with the DL that is still funny.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Paging Betty Lizard….

      • OldYanksFan

        Making fun of the Latinos, are we?

        • Bob Buttons

          So are you saying having morning wood is a different experience for Latinos?

          • Robinson Tilapia

            I’ve never not been one. Can’t tell ya.

            • Former ACE MannyGeee

              I spent 2 weeks in the summer of 2001 not being a Latino. My morning wood experience was vastly different. It’s haircut wasn’t as crisp but it had significantly better credit.

              (I want to take the time to apologize to all my fellow Latino BAR posters for my racially insensitive joke.)

              • Robinson Tilapia

                Apology accepted. I also bet it wasn’t as lazy.

                #ohshutupyouwereallthinkingit

                • Former ACE MannyGeee

                  Well played.

          • vicki

            it’s different. (i won’t be answering any questions as to how statistically significant my sample size.)

        • Jim Is A (Bored) Peckerhead

          Pretty sure that the grammar wasn’t what he was laughing at.

    • TCMiller30

      “Trying” to make a sliding catch? What is that crap! He did make the sliding catch. Haha

  • FRANK

    It doesn’t set the market, but it should be a guideline for what the Yankees should OFFER Cano similay to David Wright’s contract. If Pedroia is worth 14MM and David Wright is worth 17.5MM then Cano is in the 18-20MM range…probably closer to 20. And they both got 7-8 years, so something in the 8/160 range is fair.

    • gargoyle

      8 years is nuts. Are you not paying attention to what is going on with this team right now?

  • hogsmog

    Also, not impossible that Cano picks up the MVP this year, especially if the Yankees make the playoffs, which would probably be a huge negotiation chip.

    • Bo Knows

      Only way Robbie wins the MVP is if Cabrera is out for the remainder of the season, and Chris Davis starts hitting like Ike Davis

      • Former ACE MannyGeee

        And if Ike Davis starts playing like Chili Davis, Cano makes all the money!

    • The Talking Head

      Probably not gonna happen with Miggie and Chris Davis hitting like they’ve been. They would need to get hurt, or hit a wall while Cano would need to catch fire in true Robbie form. There’s a chance Cano doesn’t reach the RBI/HR totals for the year that Davis has now. Not saying its impossible but it would take a lot for Cano to win it.

    • stuart a

      sure because miguel cabrera or the 1b in baltimore do not exist.

      cabrera’s offensive #’s are in a different stratosphere then cano..

  • OldYanksFan

    The Midget is not dumb!

    Mighty Mouse
    ———— 2B HR
    Home: 168 53 .322 .387 .502 .889
    Away: 102 43 .284 .354 .412 .766

    Lazy Dominican
    ———— 2B HR
    Home: 151 107 .301 .347 .502 .849
    Away: 202 091 .314 .360 .506 .866

    So Robbie is elite wherever he goes.
    The Midget is only worth talking about in Fenway.

  • Carlos Danger

    Anybody wanna exchange text messages?

    • Robinson Tilapia

      I thought about changing my handle to this for about five minutes.

      • Carlos Danger

        I couldn’t help myself. One day I want everyone to list all the handles they’ve used here at RAB, that has offseason written all over it.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          But the real question is who were you yesterday.

          • Carlos Danger

            Or earlier in this thread…only the Ax-Man knows.

    • Bo Knows

      Stranger Danger, stranger danger

  • SDB

    I read about Pedroia’s extension, and then immediately thought of Danny DeVito singing “You gotta pay the troll toll” in Sunny in Philly.

  • gargoyle

    I wouldn’t give him more than 5 years – period end of story. If they (and some of the Robbie lovers here) haven’t learned all about albatross contracts by now then they are truly blind.

    Agree or not I’d bet half the GMs in baseball think that Pedroia is a better player(I disagree). There’s also the stylistic thing about his “laziness” and faint whiff of PEDS. No one execept the Yankees is going to give this guy more than 5 years.

  • Greg

    May not be a perfect comp, but it’s a better comp than the Votto or Pujols contracts.

  • Jason

    I don’t think it creates precedent or sets the table for Cano’s contract, because they’re quite different players, but I think it puts at least some pressure on Cano to give the Yankees a hometown discount. Pedroia is clearly worth more than 7/100. Hopefully cano will do something in the 8/160 range. That seems like a decent, yet probably unrealistic, middle ground. I’m just used to players squeezing the Yankees for every penny they’re worth, damned be the future of the franchise.

    • gargoyle

      On what planet is 8/160 the hometown discount?

      Three years from now you’ll all be bitching about all the dead, sunk money the Yankees invested in Cano.

      • Former ACE MannyGeee

        In what planet is not signing Cano (even if its for the twilight of his career) make this team better in 2014-2018?

        • Cool Lester Smooth

          The one where elite players grow on trees.

        • gargoyle

          So there’s only way to build a contending team? Did it ever occur to you that Cano could be traded for say two close to MLB ready prospects (OF corner IF) and the money saved could be spent to improve the team elsewhere (again OF corner IF) and that end product could be a better team?

          You really want to be paying Robinson Cano $20 eight years from now?

          • Cool Lester Smooth

            We might get 2 MLB ready prospects who might, someday, if they pan out, be almost as good as Cano will be from 31-35?!

            Sign me up for that!

          • WhittakerWalt

            Do you understand how much of a crapshoot it is to count on prospects EVER panning out? I bet Seattle thought they’d pulled off a major coup when they got Jesus Montero.

            • Cool Lester Smooth

              Or when the Indians managed to snag both Andy Marte and Kelly Shoppach for just Coco Crisp and Josh Bard.

          • OldYanksFan

            I don’t. But ‘WAR wise’, $20m buys a 4+ WAR player.
            It’s likely that Robbie is a 6 WAR player for 2 or more years.

            If you account for inflation, to be worth $160m today, you probably need to post 30-35 WAR over the length of the contract. If Robbie posts 12 WAR in the first 2 years, then he would need 23 WAR over the last 6 years.

            2013 looks like a 7.5 WAR year. So lets say over 8 years:
            7,6,5,4,4,3,2,1.

            That’s 32 WAR.
            As I’ve said above, I don’t think he is worth, in a classical WAR sense, more than $150ish. However, you ALWAYS overpay for FAs. So unless the Yankees can field a PS quality team strickly from the farm, you are gonna overpay a few FAs anyway.

            And let’s be honest. If the Yanks eat $20m (over 8 years) on that contract, that ain’t a big deal.

            I’m not saying JUST SIGN HIM AT $160m!!!!!!
            I’m saying if they did, it wouldn’t hurt the Yanks that much, and he may help propel us to the PS in some of those 8 years.

            At least we don’t lose any prospects signing him as a FA.

            • gargoyle

              I give Cano 5/$100 hell maybe even 5/$125.

              If he hits the open market honesly who would top that?

              • Cool Lester Smooth

                Good point, I can’t imagine anyone paying premium money for the best major leaguer not named Miguel Cabrera over the last 4 years.

  • stuart a

    gargoyle do not use logic. blogs are where people whine to sign people and then complain about the overpay 2 years later..

    cano is a very good player, he should get pedroia money but in the yankee universe they have to do the obligatory overpay…

    cano at 37, i cringe when I think about it…they assume cano at 31 will actually be better then the 29 year old cano. same at 34..highly unlikely that happens..

    and trout is better then machado and harper….trouts production has been better..

  • WhittakerWalt

    “…Dustin Pedroia got an MVP for having a Derek Jeter year when Derek Jeter was passed over twice for doing the same thing, but that’s a subject for another time.”

    - Steven Goldman

    He does think the award was correct, though. I guess it was a down year for offense. Plus Petie led the league in hits and grit.

    • RetroRob

      There really wasn’t much of a clear candidate that year. Basically, he had a nice year on the right team at the right time, when no one else was dominant.

      Luck of timing.

      • WhittakerWalt

        Pretty much.

  • RetroRob

    The market determines the price.

    When Cano declares free agency, the market will determine what he gets from there.

    • gargoyle

      Let’s hope the Yankees let the market determine his value as opposed to bidding against themselves.

      I’ll eat my hat if any team but the Yankees offers Cano 8 years. Only one team stupid enuf to do that.

      • OldYanksFan

        Again… years are really NOT the issue. Total cost is.
        I would sign him for 8/$160m.
        The 7th and 8th years bother you?
        Would 7/$160m be better?
        How about 6/$150m?

        Is there value is having him set some Yankee records?
        Is there value in having him be a Lifetime Yankee?
        Posada and Bernie cost us money in their last years.
        Would you feel better NOW if they both spent their last 4 years with another team?

        Jeter won’t be worth his last contract.
        Rather see him play for the Dodgers from 2012-2014?

        We do need to put into context that the Yankees are MLB’s richest team and most famous franchise.
        That needs to be factored into the decision.

        • Cool Lester Smooth

          Don’t be ridiculous, OYF. Everyone knows that the Yankees are no different from the Twins and early 2000s Rangers and are utterly incapable of absorbing a bad contract while remaining competitive!

          Just look at how the Jason Giambi and Bernie Williams contracts destroyed the team!

  • Improbable Island’s Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR)

    Honestly, as the season progresses more and more I’m starting to think that trading him for younger players/mega prospects is the right way to go. Signing another again superstar to a long term deal that will go into his late 30′s? Do we really want to go down this road again?

    Robbie is one of my favorite players, and I wouldn’t exactly be disappointed if they re-signed him. Actually, I’d be pretty happy. But I’m no longer sure it’s the best move for the team, especially with the budget cap. I’m leaning towards not being the nest move.

    • Improbable Island’s Dirty Midget Whores (formerly RRR)

      “again” superstar should be “aging”

  • Dustin Pedroia

    Fuck all you guys! 2008 MVP bitches! FYI, Cano is lazy.

    • Brett Pedroia

      Hey bro! Wanna go to Gap Kids? We can get you some shorts and I can…

  • Mike

    I’m almost certainly sure Cano is going to get closer to 20 mil per yr than the 14 per yr Pedroia got.