Sep
13

9/13-9/15 Series Preview: Boston Red Sox

By
(Winslow Townson/Getty)

(Winslow Townson/Getty)

The Red Sox demolished the Yankees in Yankee Stadium last weekend, or at least they demolished their pitching staff. The Bombers had no answer for Boston’s lineup in the first three games. The rivalry moves to Fenway Park this weekend for three huge games. Huge for New York, that is.

What Have They Done Lately?
The Red Sox lost to the Rays yesterday but otherwise took two of three in Tampa. They’ve won eleven of their last 14 games and own the league’s best record and run differential at 89-59 and +167, respectively. Boston leads the AL East by seven games in the loss column and has the division all but wrapped up with a little more than two weeks to play.

Offense
At 5.2 runs per game with a team 113 wRC+, Boston is one of the very best hitting teams in all the land. They have a 136 wRC+ as a team over the last two weeks. That’s an entire lineup hitting almost like Robinson Cano (140 wRC+) for a two week period. Insane. The Red Sox are without their catalyst CF Jacoby Ellsbury (111 wRC+), who has a broken bone in his foot and hopes to return in time for the postseason. Here’s their only injured position player.

Napoli. (Al Messerschmidt/Getty)

Napoli. (Al Messerschmidt/Getty)

It seems like manager John Farrell has nothing but good hitters in his lineup, and that’s because he usually does. 2B Dustin Pedroia (112 wRC+), OF Shane Victorino (118 wRC+), DH David Ortiz (149 wRC+), 1B Mike Napoli (124 wRC+), OF Daniel Nava (128 wRC+), and SS Stephen Drew (103 wRC+) play pretty much everyday. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (106 wRC+) catches regularly while OF Jonny Gomes (101 wRC+) subs in against left-handers. 3B Will Middlebrooks (91 wRC+) has been excellent for a few weeks now. That’s pretty much the regular lineup right there.

1B Mike Carp (152 wRC+ in limited time) has been a force off the bench and headlines the group of reserves. Backup C David Ross (82 wRC+ in limited time) usually plays against lefties and OF Jackie Bradley Jr. (58 wRC+) has seen more playing time with Ellsbury hurt. Top prospect IF Xander Bogaerts (106 wRC+ in very limited time) hasn’t played all that much since coming up last month. September call-ups C Ryan Lavarnway, IF John McDonald, UTIL Brandon Snyder, and pinch-runner OF Quintin Berry fill out the rest of the position player crop.

Starting Pitching Matchups

Friday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda vs. RHP John Lackey
Lackey, 34, is having his best season as a Red Sox (Sock?) thanks to his new elbow. He has a 3.48 ERA (3.72 FIP) in 26 starts with very good walk (1.98 BB/9 and 5.3 BB%) and ground ball (47.4%) rates. His strikeout (7.70 K/9 and 20.9 K%) and homer (1.13 HR/9 and 12.5% HR/FB) totals are just okay though. Lackey has thrown six different pitches this year but he leans heavily on three: his low-90s four-seamer, mid-80s cutter, and upper-70s curve. He’s thrown those pitches roughly 90% of the time combined. A low-90s two-seamer, mid-80s changeup, and mid-80s slider are rarely used fourth, fifth, and sixth offerings. Lackey has a big reverse split this year — lefties have a .290 wOBA against him while righties are at .341 — for whatever reason. That’s an outlier compared to the rest of his career. The Yankees scored seven runs against Lackey in 5.2 innings last weekend and still managed to lose.

Lester. (Winslow Townson/Getty)

Lester. (Winslow Townson/Getty)

Saturday: LHP CC Sabathia vs. LHP Jon Lester
The 29-year-old Lester has had a very up and down (and up again) season. He’s sitting on a 3.86 ERA (3.66 FIP) with strikeout (7.45 K/9 and 19.5 K%) and walk (2.84 BB/9 and 7.4 BB%) rates that are damn near identical his disaster season a year ago. His ground ball rate (43.9%) has dropped and yet he’s giving up significantly fewer homers (0.84 HR/9 and 8.4% HR/FB), which doesn’t really make sense considering his home ballpark. Lester’s four-seam fastball recently jumped back into the mid-90s and he’s shelved his upper-80s cutter. That was the pitch he fell in love with and got him into trouble. A low-90s sinker, mid-80s changeup, and mid-70s curveball round out his repertoire. Lester held New York to three runs in eight innings — the rare complete-game loss — last weekend. These two have seen each other plenty of times over the years. No surprises.

Sunday: RHP Ivan Nova vs. RHP Clay Buchholz
Buchholz, 28, just came off the DL after missing more than three months with a neck problem. He held the Rays scoreless for five innings in his first start back and has a stellar 1.61 ERA (2.40 FIP) in 13 games this season. His strikeout (8.76 K/9 and 25.4 K%) and ground ball (48.4%) rates are very good, his walk rate (3.02 BB/9 and 8.8 BB%) is pretty good, and his homer rate (0.20 HR/9 and 3.0% HR/FB) is off the charts. Unsustainably off the charts. Buchholz will rarely throw his low-90s two-seamer, instead preferring his low-to-mid-90s four-seamer and upper-80s cutter when setting up his knockout low-80s changeup. He’ll also throw upper-70s curveballs. The Yankees have seen Buchholz a bunch of times over the years including twice this year: one run in seven innings in April and five scoreless innings in June.

Workman. (Ezra Shaw/Getty)

Workman. (Ezra Shaw/Getty)

Bullpen Status
Farrell’s bullpen is in decent shape, though both closer RHP Koji Uehara (1.68 FIP) and RHP Junichi Tazawa (3.13 FIP) have pitched twice in the last three days. That could impact their availability at some point this weekend. Uehara has retired 34 straight batters and it would be neat if that streak ended this weekend. Actually, I’d rather not see him at all. RHP Brandon Workman (3.48 FIP) has become a trusted late-inning reliever but threw two innings on Wednesday. LHP Craig Breslow (3.74 FIP) is Farrell’s top southpaw. LHP Drake Britton (3.15 FIP in limited time), LHP Franklin Morales (4.93 FIP in limited time) and LHP Matt Thornton (4.07 FIP) make up the rest of the bullpen alongside September call-ups RHP Rubby De La Rosa and RHP Allen Webster.

Joe Girardi, on the other hand, has a tired and worn out bullpen. Mariano Rivera has pitched each of the last three days and four of the last five, throwing 84 total pitches since Sunday. Hard to believe he’ll be available tonight, but I said the same thing yesterday. David Robertson has appeared in back-to-back games after missing about a week with shoulder fatigue. Boone Logan is still unavailable because his elbow is barking. Shawn Kelley might be the closer and a bunch of call-ups might be the setup men tonight. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for a breakdown of the carnage, then check out Over The Monster for the latest and greatest on the Red Sox.

Categories : Series Preview

31 Comments»

  1. fabricio says:

    time to step it up and hammer their pitching all we need is our starting pitching to be better and our bullben to hold them down and we can take the series

  2. It’s funny. With the BP situation tonight, this game is just like last Friday, in that regard. But, unlike last Friday, the Yankees aren’t coming off a kicked-repeatedly-in-the-gut loss. Hopefully, this Friday doesn’t repeat last Friday’s kicked-repeatedly-in-the-gut loss.

  3. JGYank says:

    Hopefully we can take 2 out of 3 to keep pace in the WC race. The real important series is the one with Tampa coming up in about a week. That is a must sweep if not at least 2/3 if we are already ahead of them by then.

  4. Eddard says:

    Ain’t no way ain’t no how they win Saturday’s game. CC is starting and it’s a FOX game. If they’re to win the series they’ll have to rely on Hiroki and Nova just as they have all season. CC is a liability at this point. The rest of his contract should be considered a sunk cost by ownership.

    • YES says:

      So because you said this, Sat game is a Yankee Win for sure now. Thanks.

      • Eddard says:

        I just don’t see it. The only way CC can beat the Sox is when he’s opposed by an equally worthless pitcher like Ryan Dempster. And even then I still remember the game where the offense scored 7 runs off Dempster only to have CC give up 7 himself and they lost the game 8-7.

  5. your mom says:

    I’d be happy with 2 of 3. I’m confident in our offense heading into Fenway, the pitching not so much. Still would like to see someone get beaned………

  6. gageagainstthemachine says:

    That Napoli photo…ugh…what is it about making a kagillion dollars playing baseball for a living in Boston makes a man decide that the best look for him is to go with the “I hope someone doesn’t mistake me for a panhandler because I already have a kagillion dollars from playing baseball” ridicously large and/or un groomed bearded look. I know people say the Yankees’ shave policy is stupid (although I don’t think it factors at all in deciding to play for the Yankees or not), but I look at Boston’s team and other players around the league and “I’d like to thank the good lord for making me a Yankee” fan, where at least our players don’t look like someone I feel the need to tell my kids to watch out for because they probably own a windowless van with naked lady mudflaps. God, I hope the last Yanks-Sox series was an outlier and we resoundingly sweep them. Phew. Rant done.

    • your mom says:

      Facial hair is a requirement in Boston. Beard Strong.

    • Robinson Tilapia says:

      New York heterosexual men are mostly at peace with the inherent metrosexuality of living in the big city. It’s not icky or girly or any less manly to be clean shaven, spend money on clothes, and get the occasional pedicure.

      In Boston, they grow beards.

  7. Havok9120 says:

    My bet is that we wind up with 3 pitching duals just to offset last weekend’s nonsense. Because, as we all know Suzyn…

  8. Robinson Tilapia says:

    We’re going to fuck them with their own beards. Yanks sweep in two.

  9. Eddard says:

    Also, the lineup won’t be nearly as good this series without Gardner. Curtis Granderson is hitting lead off tonight with Overbay protecting Soriano. Bottom 4 is Nuney, Ichiro, Ryan and Stewart.

  10. ropeadope says:

    Friday lineups:

    Ellsbury and Gardner injuries should be a wash. Napoli not in starting lineup amid rumors he’s considering a shave after discovering a family of woodpeckers nesting in his beard this morning.

    Yankees

    1.CF Curtis Granderson
    2.DH Alex Rodriguez
    3.2B Robinson Cano
    4.LF Alfonso Soriano
    5.1B Lyle Overbay
    6.3B Eduardo Nunez
    7.RF Ichiro Suzuki
    8.SS Brendan Ryan
    9.C- Chris Stewart

    SP: Hiroki Kuroda

    Red Sox

    1.2B Dustin Pedroia
    2.RF Shane Victorino
    3.DH David Ortiz
    4.1B Mike Carp
    5.LF Daniel Nava
    6.C- Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    7.SS Stephen Drew
    8.3B Will Middlebrooks
    9.CF Jackie Bradley Jr.

    SP: John Lackey

  11. jim p says:

    Does the rule that Yankee pitchers are never to throw way inside to a Boston hitter expire next year or in 2015, or ever? Not sure when that was mandated, but it has clearly been in effect for a few years now.

  12. Rizi Walnutz says:

    I’ve seen enough beards. I’m watching on the radio.

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