Sep
20

Game 154: 1%

By
(Jennifer Stewart/Getty)

(Jennifer Stewart/Getty)

According to Baseball Prospectus, the Yankees have a 1% chance to make the postseason following their loss to the Blue Jays last night. They’re four games back in the loss column with only nine to play, meaning even if they go a perfect 9-0, either the Rangers or Rays would need to go 5-4 just to force a tiebreaker game. That doesn’t even factor in the Orioles, Royals, and Indians, all of whom are sandwiched between the Yankees and a wildcard spot. The postseason outlook is indeed grim, but the Yankees have not yet been mathematically eliminated. Until that happens, there will still be some shred of hope. Here’s the lineup Joe Girardi will send out there against two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum:

  1. RF Ichiro Suzuki
  2. DH Alex Rodriguez
  3. 2B Robinson Cano
  4. LF Alfonso Soriano
  5. CF Curtis Granderson
  6. 3B Eduardo Nunez
  7. 1B Lyle Overbay
  8. SS Brendan Ryan
  9. C J.R. Murphy

And on the mound is another former Cy Young Award winner, CC Sabathia. Two or three years ago, a Sabathia-Lincecum pitching matchup would have been one of the best and most exciting in baseball. They were two of the five or ten best pitchers in the world as recently as 2011.

It’s a lovely day in New York, perfect for baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm ET and can be seen on YES. Enjoy.

Injury Update: Boone Logan (elbow) is available for tonight’s game. He’s missed about two weeks with a bone spur.

Categories : Game Threads

143 Comments»

  1. Pat D says:

    Damned 1%’ers. Who needs ‘em?

    ……………………………………

    Hmm. Wrong board.

  2. vicki says:

    after today’s announcement i love the connection and continuity of the photo of that other lefty.

  3. jim p says:

    ‘Until that happens, there will still be some shred of hope. Here’s the lineup…’

    And so shreds the hope. Maybe we’ll win tonight, but I don’t see how we make up the missing 99%. Especially if Joe keeps going with ‘experience’ when the experience is a Joba or Ichiro fail. Play the kids Joe, especially from the bullpen.

    • WhittakerWalt says:

      I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but the kids aren’t any good.

      • jim p says:

        Neither are the experienced hands. Difference: Kids can surprise, kids can learn. What have we learned from the heavy use of Cabral, Almonte & Betances this past month? Other than Ichi, Joba, & Kelley are still burnt?

  4. trr says:

    Gotta keep putting the best lineup we can until we’re eliminated.
    We’re going down, but let’s go down kicking and screaming …
    FIGHT !!!

  5. Posting this now…for your own knowledge.

    Ever since I started doing these umpire reviews, this is the one I’ve been clamoring to write, but dreading to not see on the diamond. It was going to happen eventually, but I have to do this, and I am not happy.

    Introducing my most hated umpiring crew in all of baseball…

    Dana DeMuth (No. 32 / HP-CC)Dana DeMuth isn’t exactly bad, but he does tend to drive me nuts when I see him. The guy has been in the series for 30 years, but no one knows a whole lot about him. He never likes talking, hell he refused to talk to reporters at times or be present when the President of the United States was there, and really, while he isn’t arrogant behind the plate, he’s just strange. As for his strike zone, he’s got a strange zone statistically. If you look at just the numbers, he’s a hitter’s umpire because a lot of runs score when he’s present. But, if you look deep, he’s not really either. His walk rates are middle of the zone, his strikeout rates are middle. The only big problem is he is inconsistent, including ejecting Jorge Posada over three years ago for a crappy called third strike. The good news is he’s patient in terms of ejections, can’t say much for the rest of his crew.

    Doug “Dum Dum” Eddings (No. 88 / 1B)Good thing we didn’t sign AJ Pierzynski, or else this would not be a hot series. Eddings is in his 15th year of umpiring, and really he’s not good. You want a strike zone, he’s got it. It is huge and walk rates are stupidly low. To bonus things, he has a ridiculously high ejection rate, having ejected over 65 people since he joined the league. He even once ejected a Dominican League player in 4 straight games in 1994. After the games, the player showed up with a gun and a friends and threatened him. As scary as that sounds, it doesn’t seem like he’s changed since he came to the majors in 1998.

    Paul “Four Eyes’ Nauert (No. 39 / 2B)On the list of my top 5 most hated umpires, Nauert (pronounced Nart) is the most patient umpire statistically in the major leagues. He’s been in the majors since 1995 (in two sections because he was one of the 25 umpires who resigned in the 1999 strike). If this was a really really hot day, we might be able to get him out of the game, because he can’t handle the heat well. He annoys me, because he cannot see anything correct (just ask Dustin Pedroia last year) and while he is patient as hell, he is a bit a dick. As for his strike zone, AGH LARGE. It’s better than Eddings, but not much better than his mate’s. Expect me not to say anything positive about him.
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    Angel “He Who Should Not Be Named, Angel 2, Just Downright Bad, Adam Rosales’s Worst Nightmare, Legally Blind” Hernandez (No. 55 / 3B)The worst umpire in 2013, just ahead of Marty Foster, Angel Hernandez is a effing nightmare. Most people remember his really controversial and downright putrid decision in a game in which Adam Rosales hit a HR at Jacobs Field/Progressive Field, which barely was a HR off Chris Perez of the Indians. After both SportsTime Ohio and Comcast Sports Network Oakland both showed replay that it was a HR on closer review, Hernandez and Co. ruled it a DOUBLE on review despite having the blatant call correct. Hernandez has been big in the bad call department this season, and if you just look it up, a lot of Braves are upset with him and his ejection rate. His strike zone is inconsistent as his K-rate jumps around and his runs scored during umpiring has jumped around. There is no way to not explain how bad he is. He’s been an umpire since 1991, and I’m still failing to know why he hasn’t been fired yet. Chipper Jones refuses to watch his games and he notoriously ejected Steve McMichael from the crowd at Wrigley before he was supposed to do the rendition of Take Me Out To the Ballgame. The players have also voted him one of the worst umpires in baseball (only C.B. Bonehad Bucknor beats him out on that), and again the WUA hasn’t done anything yet. We can fire an umpire for drug use (Brian Runge), but we can’t fire for doing his job so poorly. I would beg Angel Hernandez to quit now, but that isn’t going to ever happen because he sees nothing wrong with what he does.

    This would be a good time to close your eyes on this series.

  6. ropeadope says:

    1% is insane! That’s implying odd of 100 – 1 against making the post-season. If you could find anyone at Baseball Prospectus (or any reputable source you trust) offering 100 – 1 odds, jump all over it. Who wouldn’t put up $100 to win $10,000 on the Yankees making the post-season?

  7. dkidd says:

    that is not the line-up of a playoff team

    the fact that we got all the way through the series in baltimore before the other shoe started to drop is incredible

  8. Need Pitching & Hitting & Defense & Baserunning says:

    Very catchable.

  9. Ok, was hoping I would post it earlier, but now will suffice.

    ————————————–

    Lets take a quick look at how the standings look entering these games tonight.

    1. Texas
    2. Tampa Bay (Texas holds tiebreaker)

    3. Cleveland, .5
    4. Baltimore, 2
    5. Kansas City, 3
    6. New York, 3.5 ( :( )

    Lets look at who each of them play now.

    Texas – 3 at KC
    Tampa Bay – 4 vs. BAL
    Cleveland – 3 vs. HOU
    Baltimore – 4 at TB
    Kansas City – 3 vs. TEX
    New York – 3 vs. SF

    Obviously, a lot of head-to-heads there between competitors. This can be a good and bad thing at the same time for the Yankees coming up here. Lets make a few assumptions for the records I will project here, partially out of necessity (to keep this tidy), and also because we are looking at the Yankees POV to keep any shred of hope alive, and to do so, we really, really have to assume they won’t shit the bed this weekend. This is must-sweep territory, and I will treat it as such.

    Assumptions:

    Yankees sweep Giants
    Indians sweep Astros (this one is necessary – Houston is 51-102, losers of six straight, and a run differential over (under?) -200. They are horribad. To assume they even win one game is too much)

    Now, here’s what I expect after the next three games (we’ll touch base on BAL/TB Game 4 in a minute):

    TEX – lose 2/3 in KC
    TB – lose 2/3 vs. BAL
    BAL – win 2/3 vs. TB
    KC – win 2/3 vs. TEX

    Where would that leave us? Yankees pick up two games on Texas and Tampa Bay, narrowing that margin to 1.5. They pick up a game on KC, so they usurp them. They pick up a game on Baltimore, remaining .5 in the back of them.

    HOWEVER, factor Cleveland into all of this, and they’re .5 back of TB and TEX, and they would jump two games on the Rays and Rangers, and move 1.5 in front of them for the top wild card spot. The Yankees would be 1.5 back of a spot, and within range of Tampa Bay, but they really have no control of their fate anymore.

    Now, if the Orioles win on Monday, they’d be tied with Tampa Bay, and the Yankees would be one game back of the Rays. But the Rays would no longer be sitting in a playoff spot; Texas would lead by .5, with TB and BAL 1.5 back, Yankees still 2 back (this is because Texas begins a three game series at home vs. Houston on Monday – same “sweep” rules apply as from above).

    Texas plays two more games with the Astros and four with Angels, all at home, to finish up. Even with Anaheim’s better form of late, it’s really hard to see Texas slipping up enough that, even if the Yankees swept the Rays and went 6-0 in that final week, that they would be able to gain those two games on the Rangers. They’d basically have to hope the Angels do some serious damage in Texas in the final four games.

    TL;DR – it’s a really tough proposition forthcoming. Highly unlikely. But if we will watch, we might as well hope. But one thing is for certain, and that’s that slipping up in Toronto this week was very likely the death knell for this team. Inexcusable their performance in Toronto this week.

    • But the Rays would no longer be sitting in a playoff spot; Texas would lead by .5, with TB and BAL 1.5 back, Yankees still 2 back (this is because Texas begins a three game series at home vs. Houston on Monday – same “sweep” rules apply as from above).

      Ok, this makes no sense. Texas and TB would be tied after Sunday in my example. If the Orioles and Rangers win on Monday, the Rangers move one full game in front of the Rays and Orioles, who would pull even with the Rays. Yankees would be one game behind both, since a 3.5 game deficit would puck up 2.5 on the Rays and .5 on the Orioles.

    • Mustang (The Has Beens & Wannabes Bunch 2013) says:

      +100
      For effort alone but you lost me at “Ok, was hoping I would post it earlier’

  10. SDB says:

    Ryan looks really smooth there at SS.

    Such a huge change from Eduardo Scissorhands.

  11. trr says:

    Ryan and Cano make an excellent defensive duo

  12. Jason Hammel doing everything he can so far to help his old ‘mates. Jeez.

  13. Tom says:

    So Joe went with a leadoff guy who has both an OBP below .300 (as he strikes out on ball 5) and a guy who actually hits righties worse than lefties?

    Interesting strategy.

  14. NY2FanMaynard says:

    I wish Girardi would stop trotting out ARod. I don’t know who he would play…. Wells maybe.

  15. Mustang (The Has Beens & Wannabes Bunch 2013) says:

    1% is also the chance of seeing Joba pitch again or at least I hope.

  16. Rolling Doughnut (Meme-less in Mexico) says:

    Soriano is very happy to be back… that got out in a hurry.

  17. Mustang (The Has Beens & Wannabes Bunch 2013) says:

    Favorite Andy moment for me was him throwing out John Smoltz at third in the WS

  18. Mustang (The Has Beens & Wannabes Bunch 2013) says:

    Ok Kramerica Industries totally mess me up so it a good thing that the Rays are winning and the Yanks are winning?

    Who the fuck I’m cheering for? other then Yanks and not wanting Joba pitching.

    • vicki says:

      go astros.

    • You could go so many different ways.

      Me? I’d root for the Rays to lose tonight. The danger being, of course, that they could fall out of a playoff spot if they do lose. It’s important they remain in a spot so that the Yankees hold any control of their fate. If they drop to 3rd, then the Yankees have zero control of their playoff fate.

      We MUST assume Cleveland gets one of those spots. Forget them, it’s not happening. We are looking at the Rangers, Rays, and Orioles right now.

  19. Tom says:

    Good inning for the offense – in addition to the run, they really made Timmeh work that inning.

  20. Actually, why are we complimenting the tag there? The batter didn’t run, and the tag eliminated a force play.

  21. Rolling Doughnut (Meme-less in Mexico) says:

    Nuñez??? Nice.

  22. Joey says:

    Another inning where CC just can’t shut down the other team after we score, UGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  23. Tom says:

    Who would have thought walking the # 9 batter to lead off an inning would come back to bite CC?

    At least the lead lasted 3 batters.

  24. Talk about Yankee Stadium curses.

    The NY Giants beat the Yankees in the 1921 and ’22 World Series, while both shared the Polo Grounds (owned by the Giants). The Yankees had better attendance, and so the Giants kicked them out. In every World Series since then (starting in 1923, another revenge match of sorts, and then 1936, ’37, ’51, and then ’62 after the Giants had moved west), the Yankees won.

    Good job, morons.

    • Rolling Doughnut (Meme-less in Mexico) says:

      The ’62 debacle could also be attributed to he curse of Captain Eddie, reversed in 2010 after the 2006 replacement of the plaque.

  25. Alex says:

    I thought JR was a switch hitter why is he batting right handed.

  26. nsalem says:

    They are missing Cepeda.

    • Rolling Doughnut (Meme-less in Mexico) says:

      Peruchín hit .305 w/35 dingers in 1962. Despite problems with Alvin Dark,who actually ordered the latino players not to speak Spanish in the clubhouse or dugout.

  27. Mustang (The Has Beens & Wannabes Bunch 2013) says:

    Ok, Im cheering for:

    O’s
    Astro
    KC
    Joba not to pitch

    I’m right?

  28. vicki says:

    check out the leather on that third baseman.

  29. Soriano with yet ANOTHER out on the basepaths. I’ve lost count of how many that is.

  30. nsalem says:

    Omar Moreno had a short miserable year or so with the Yankee’s. Most people have thankfully blacked it out.

  31. Tom says:

    So thoughts on letting both Nix and Nunez walk (non tender both) next year?

    I’d be up for Ryan as a backup if they get offense at the catcher spot and get another OF’r (and make Ichiro a 4th OF’r)

    • Need Pitching & Hitting & Defense & Baserunning says:

      I think Nunez has an option left and will come up just shy of Super-2 status, so they may as well keep him for depth.
      I wouldn’t mind Ryan as a backup SS, but they’d still need to find a starting SS.
      I can see Nix getting a similar deal as last year, with a negotiated, non-guaranteed split contract instead of going to arbitration.

  32. Rolling Doughnut (Meme-less in Mexico) says:

    Two stellar plays by Noonie. Oh my.

  33. Mustang (The Has Beens & Wannabes Bunch 2013) says:

    GLOVE MAN!!!

  34. Need Pitching & Hitting & Defense & Baserunning says:

    Nunez flashing the leather today.

  35. Mustang (The Has Beens & Wannabes Bunch 2013) says:

    The astro apparently didn’t get the Yankees Miracle memo.

  36. Mustang (The Has Beens & Wannabes Bunch 2013) says:

    I have my yearly baseball trip to Houston next week why do I feel like I’m going to be watching the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders vs the Astro.

  37. Umm, wow, I don’t think Paulie could be more wrong there.

    There’s a reason those teams are 20 games under .500. It’s not easier to hit and pitch, because if they could hit and pitch, they wouldn’t be so terrible.

  38. WhittakerWalt says:

    “Andy Pettitte has 4 WS rings!”

    Literally the worst argument you could make for anyone to get into the Hall of Fame, courtesy of Michael Kay.

  39. It’s so effing annoying that the Yankees 0ffense has returned when it has. This is just putrid.

  40. Tom says:

    Nice job by the big man.

    SO do you not push your luck and just go Robertson/Mo 8th/9th and if still tied figure it out after that?

  41. Mustang (The Has Beens & Wannabes Bunch 2013) says:

    The Rays/O’s game is strange. I mean the Rays look in control of it but the O’s are down by 1

  42. Overbay has completely fallen apart by this point. Hard to argue otherwise.

  43. Anderson Silva says:

    They have seem this changeup in the same spot out of the zone about 20 times this game and they can’t adjust and lay off of it. No surprises this offense is a fucking joke.

    • Need Pitching & Hitting & Defense & Baserunning says:

      What makes a good changeup good is that hitter’s don’t realize it’s a changeup until it’s too late.

      • Anderson Silva says:

        76 ERA+. I’m not sure Lincecum qualifies as having anything good.

        • WhittakerWalt says:

          Everyone’s pressing.

        • Need Pitching & Hitting & Defense & Baserunning says:

          It’s possible for even very bad pitchers to have a pitch, or pitches, that work very well in a particular game. Hell even Phil Hughes occasionally pitches well.

          And fwiw, Lincecum’s change rates as above average for the year (11th best among qualified starters)

  44. Tom says:

    Give Murphy the green light! (just kidding)

  45. Anderson Silva says:

    you have to PH for Ichiro, right?

  46. ARod and his 1-25 cold streak against a new pitcher?

    Not feeling this at all.

  47. Tom says:

    If there was ever a time for an embedded Yankee…

  48. Wheels says:

    Lincecum was pissed.

  49. Mustang (The Has Beens & Wannabes Bunch 2013) says:

    SLUMP OVER!!!!!

  50. Anderson Silva says:

    Very fucking nice Alex!

  51. Leg-End says:

    A-BOMB!

  52. vicki says:

    aww, yeah.

  53. Pat D says:

    Very possibly the last hurrah of his career.

  54. John says:

    All time leader in GS’s. That was probably the only opportunity he was going to get to hit one.

  55. Need Pitching & Hitting & Defense & Baserunning says:

    All-time leader in grand slams.

  56. Need Pitching & Hitting & Defense & Baserunning says:

    Bullpen is warming already, right?

  57. Tom says:

    You have to think Joba is getting loose.

  58. Mustang (The Has Beens & Wannabes Bunch 2013) says:

    Dear Joe

    NO JOBA
    NO JOBA
    NO JOBA

  59. vicki says:

    you weren’t pretty doing it, but that’ll do, cc.

  60. Betty Lizard says:

    Thank you Alex. (Off to warble “I will always love you . . . “.)

  61. Tom says:

    Mike A’s favorite… “I’ll let the starter go out again until someone gets on” move

    Chances that is in the game recap? 90%?

  62. Wolfgang's Fault says:

    That MLB permitted the Yankees to build Faux YSIII with these right field dimensions is scandalous, but thank you very much former Yankee farmhand George Kontos.

  63. Anderson Silva says:

    They really look good turning DPs. Ryan and Cano might be the best middle infield defensively.

  64. YankeeTX says:

    Does Mo pitch the 9th ?

  65. Joey says:

    Well that shows you the trust they have in CC to have a shutdown inning after they score. And to be honest, he can’t do it!

  66. Tie game in Tampa after Adam Jones lines a double into the LF corner.

    7th inning, 3-3, 2nd/3rd, 0 outs for Baltimore, Chris Davis coming to the plate.

  67. Captain Turbo says:

    Kay really needs to just shut the fuck up about the PED stuff. You’re here to call the game, genius.

  68. Daniel Valencia lifts the Orioles to the lead on a sac fly.

  69. I get such irrational joy in seeing Mark Melancon blowing saves.

    Maybe I’m a terrible person, but, hey, it’s fun.

  70. Wheels says:

    Awesome stuff, Mo.

  71. Kevin Gausman is fucking terrible.

  72. Tyrone Sharpton says:

    This being Mariano’s final season…it’s finally sinking in. What a pleasure it was to watch that guy pitch.

  73. Steinbrenner's Ghost says:

    What kind of reception did Mo get?

  74. Pat D says:

    Old friends Mark Melancon and Kyle Farnsworth conspire to fuck over the poor, woe begotten Pirates.

  75. Indians get a rain-shortened, 7 inning 2-1 victory.

    The gifts just keep on coming for that team.

  76. dkidd says:

    watching texas collapse is fun

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