Fan Confidence Poll: October 21st, 2013

Sunday Night Open Thread
Scott Boras planning to talk to Yankees about Suk-Min Yoon this week

2013 Season: 85-77 (637 RS, 671 RA, 77-85 pythag. record), didn’t qualify for playoffs

Top stories from last week:

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea of how confident you are in the team. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?

 

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Sunday Night Open Thread
Scott Boras planning to talk to Yankees about Suk-Min Yoon this week
  • Hardy

    Here is my short overview regarding the $189(million) plan:

    25 man roster budget
    The luxury tax cap is $189. Apart from the 25 man roster, the Yankees have to budget for:
    – Player benefits, around $11
    – Salaries for the rest of the 40 man roster
    – Salaries for players acquired during the season
    – Bonuses, e.g. 0.5$ for a Derek Jeter ALCS MVP
    I calculate with a a 25 man roster budget of $170, but mainly because it is a nice round number.

    Contractual obligations
    The Yankees have the following obligations that they cannot shed unilaterally:
    – Alex Rodriguez $33.5 (include $6 HR bonus)
    – C. C. Sabathia $24.4
    – Mark Teixeira $22.5
    – Derek Jeter $15.5
    – Ichiro Suzuki $6.5
    – Alfonso Soriano $4
    – Vernon Well $0
    Total: $106.4

    Abitration eligible players
    The Yankees can offer to the following players (MLBTR salary projections):
    – David Robertson $5.07
    – Brett Gardner $4
    – Ivan Nova $2.8
    – Shawn Kelley $1.4
    – Jayson Nix $1.4
    – Chris Stewart $1
    – Frankie Cervelli $1
    Total: $16.67

    Minimum salary players
    The Yankees have following (close to) minimum salary players:
    – Eduardo Nunez $0.5
    – David Phelps $0.5
    Total: $1

    Available money for free agents
    The total cap space for the players mentioned is $124.07. Therefore the Yankees have about $45.93 for a 2B, an OF/DH, three starters and four relievers.
    This cap number can go up if
    – Alex Rodriguez is suspended ($7.7 for 50 games, $15.4 for 100 games, $23.1 for 150 games, $31 for 162+ games),
    – Derek Jeter declines his player option ($6.5),
    – players are traded, or
    – arbitration is not offered to eligible players.

    ____

    The Yankees will probably be able to sign Cano and one or two qualitiy free agents. I can’t see how this will get them the talent for more than 85 wins – the playoffs seem to be pretty unlikely for 2014.
    My conficence: 3.

    • http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger

      Jeter’s salary would be $8M if he uses his option.

      • http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger

        And Wells isn’t $0, more like $2.5M

        • I’m One

          Wells is $0 from a salary cap perspective, I believe. Not sure about the Jeter numbers.

      • Jerkface

        Jeter’s physical payroll would be 9.5 million thanks to a bonus, but his luxury tax impact would be 15.5 because it uses AAV. If he declines his option he will count as 9 million without even being on the roster!

    • I’m One

      I like that you explained your reasoning, but there are so many moving pieces at this point in the off-season (not the least of which is the A-Rod circus), so it’s really hard for me to get behind solid numbers right now.

      Until moves are made, I’ll remain at a 7. 2014 may be another season where the team doesn’t quite make the playoffs, but I think long term, the organization will be fine.

      • jjyank

        Pretty much my thoughts. I voted a 7 as well.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      “The Yankees will probably be able to sign Cano and one or two qualitiy free agents. I can’t see how this will get them the talent for more than 85 wins – the playoffs seem to be pretty unlikely for 2014.”

      Would you like them to turn the entire roster over then?

      Cano AND one to two quality free agents is a pretty active off-season haul. Whether you think that’s enough is another story.

      The administrator in me appreciates you adding benefits as a line item.

      • Wolfgang’s Fault

        “Would you like them to turn the entire roster over then?”

        If they don’t resign Cano, & they should let him leave if they can’t get it done for something in the neighborhood of $20-22M per for 5-6 years, then yeah, turn over (almost) the entire damn thing. IMO, since 2002 onward, they’ve been pretty much a cut and paste franchise anyway, patching holes where they sprang up & built on the decaying foundation of the 1995-2001 group. I’d rather lose for a few years and have it clear the team needs to rebuild than to limp along in mediocrity w/an overpriced bunch w/no real ability to compete deep into October.

        Of course, this FO won’t do this. They’ll do what they always do which is try to buy themselves out of this situation & kick the can down the road for several more years of sort of in it but not really baseball in the Bronx, & by so doing, handcuff the team financially for even more years to come. I give them a 4 because I have no confidence this ownership &/or FO has the vision and skills to really rebuild the team & farm system effectively. Would love to have them prove me wrong.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Well, that’s one way of doing it. Another 1991, though, is far more likely not to get you another 1996.

          I’d rather the increased focus on maintaining competitiveness while maximizing your avenues of having talent enter the organization, like I said yesterday, as well as taking a closer look at injury and re-injury in the system. Run a tighter ship while remaining competitive.

      • Hardy

        For me it’s not about roster turnover. The other two quality free agents could be Granderson and Kuroda, thus minimizing turnover. That would basically return the 2013 opening roster (+ Soriano), but without Pettitte and Rivera.
        In this scenario my reaction is: the rotation is CC, Kuroda, Nova, ?, ?; C is still a black hole; and the bullpen is Robertson & pray.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Ah.

          Claiming your own FAs as big signings is so 2012.

    • mitch

      I think your math is sound. If they stick to 189, it’s very unlikely they’ll be a playoff caliber team unless they make a big trade or two acquiring affordable MLB talent for prospects.

      Personally, i think they’ll blow past 189.

      • Pinkie Pie

        Take it for what you will, but in an interview on the Mike Francesa Show, Hal Steinbrenner conceded that if it came down to getting the payroll under 189 or fielding a competitive team, he’d go with the latter.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Him publicly saying that isn’t insignificant.

          • YanksFan

            But it gets lost on this website since he’s said it a few times. However Mike and the “realists” on this site will never acknowledge it.

      • I’m One

        I think your math is sound.

        I’m not sure it is. According to MLBTR, between current contract obligations, player options and project arbitration rasies, the Yankees will have $115.3M on the books. That leaves ~$55M to stay at/below $170M. They project Nix and Kelley at ~$4.1M each and Stewart and Cervelli at ~$3M each. That will probably provide a little more room (I’d look to replace Nix at that price and try to work a cheaper deal with Kelley and if they can get McCann, I’d go with Romine or Murphy as the BUC, whcih could save close to another $10M). That should be enought room for at least Cano and 1 or 2 of McCann, Tanaka & Beltran (my last choice of those 3).

        • Jerkface

          Luxury tax uses average annual value of contracts with lots of little accounting tricks you need to follow. The 189 limit is not a physical payroll sort of thing, which is why it can be confusing for fans to think about/discuss. I’m sure HAL likes it that way.

          • I’m One

            I believe the numbers from MLBTR are AAV, except for the Arb numbers, where they anticipate 1 year deals. And the $55M I used as “available” leaves them at $170M, leaving $19M for benefits, incentives, & mid-year pickups.

            I have to admit I didn’t do a ton of research on this, so I could be off.

  • Robinson Tilapia

    Still solid at 7. More encouraged than not by what I’ve been reading lately. While it’s still just speculation, those expecting a more active offseason should feel encouraged at the moment.

    • http://www.twitter.com/thewallbreakers Scully

      This.

    • Jim Is A (Bored) Peckerhead

      RT you should never feel encouraged.

      -1 to this post.

  • Pinkie Pie

    5. It’s too early in the offseason to tell what direction this team is going in.

  • http://www.twitter.com/thewallbreakers Scully

    Somehow the majority of the people have voted 4 so far. I’m sitting on a 7 until we stop considering 85 win seasons as the worst thing in the world.

    I’m glad i’m not one of the 5,000 Miami Marlins fans out there.

    • Pat D

      5,000?

      • I’m One

        Yeah, seems a bit high to me too.

      • http://twitter.com/#!/Clay_Bellinger Clay Bellinger

        500.. accidental extra 0.

        • I’m One

          Much better.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          This.

          I remember the good ol’ days, when I could walk up at gametime to Joe Robbie, and get the equivalent of Legends seats for about $40.

          Now, I could probably walk up at gametime and play third base.

    • Vern Sneaker

      85 wins not the worst thing in the world — cancer, getting fired, the Red Sox winning the Series definitely worse. But 85 wins won’t get you to the playoffs and that’s bad, very bad. That’s the 4.

      • Mike HC

        I’m still at a 4 too. It is the 85 wins, the lack of young talent, and the desire to cut payroll.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        85 wins, in and of itself, isn’t necesarilly “bad.” It’s……”not good.”

        I’ll wait while half of RAB facepalms there.

        If you believe they’ll rebound, 85 wins is a pretty soft rock-bottom to hit. If you believe they’re hitting 85 on the way down, then I probably don’t have many words of consolation to offer. :)

    • jjyank

      Agreed. The Yankees were never going to pump out 95 win, division championship seasons every year anyway. I’m at peace with not making the playoffs twice since 1994.

      I’m also at a 7. I’m fully confident the Yankees will be back on top soon enough, and the short team has so many moving parts and things that could change that I can’t bring myself to vote any lower.

  • HateMclouth (formerly I’mVernon)

    Good news last week regarding the draft and offseason plans, but I’ll stick at a 5. Which apparently is relatively optimistic..

  • The Ghost of Eddard

    I’ve been at a zero for quite some time now and this week I’m dropping to absolute zero. The reason is that the Sox are in the WS and they’re just a better run organization. Better starting pitching, better bullpen, better offense, better manager, better scouting, better everything.

    They pick up Victorino, Napoli and Gomes, we pick up Wells, Overbay and Hafner. Even Carp is a better pick up than the crap Cashman picked up like Ben Francisco and Travis Ishikawa.

    Look at the blueprint the Sox and Cardinals have layed out. That’s how you build a winner, through great drafting and development and smart FA pickups/trades to complement your farm system. And don’t give me that shit that these teams are better drafters because they pick at the top of the draft, these two teams have been good for a decade now. They’re just run better top to bottom. The Cardinals say let our best player go and we’ll spend the money more wisely elsewhere. And they did. That’s a lesson for the Yanks this offseason.

    • jjyank

      *sigh*

      I thought you left. I guess that would just be too good to be true.

      • I’m One

        Hmmm … This needs some further investigation. Let’s look at the writing style. How frequently did Eddard curse? (“And don’t give me that shit that these teams … “) Also, 3 distinct paragraphs, with no real run-on thoughts. And no comments refering to himself as “we”. Proper capitalization. I’m not convinved this is the real eddard.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Nah. It’s him. Only the person portraying the character could possibly think anyone else cares at this point.

        • jjyank

          I’m with Fish Fingers. Eddard would want an investigation. Let’s not give him one.

        • HateMclouth (formerly I’mVernon)

          I would have to agree. The writing style is very different. RIP Eddard.

  • Betty Lizard

    7.
    Nothing bad has happened yet.

    • Jim Is A (Bored) Peckerhead

      The pessimist says: “1-4. Nothing good has happened yet.”

      I figure the average should be around 5. So I voted 10, because it’s fun.

      • I’m One

        Way to go Jim!

      • YanksFan

        Good for you. 33% of the votes were between 1-3, which is idiotic. I’ve generally been a 9 but I did vote 8. Waiting for the offseason to truly get under way after the WS. They are still playing it, right?

        IF you’re 3 or less than your a troll. Or you’re a spoiled fan which I don’t care if you leave the bandwagon. That’s just looking at the NYY and not comparing them to the rest of MLB.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        Attaboy.

  • Silvio

    4.0. I’m waiting on their actions this off-season, not their damn words on Francesa or to some reporter.

  • qwerty

    When all else fails, spend like crazy. This team has a bright future.