Feinsand: Yankees, Beltran have mutual interest; contract years an issue

Fan Confidence Poll: November 25th, 2013
Yanks' hardball stance with Cano could benefit all

Via Mark Feinsand: The Yankees prefer Carlos Beltran to more expensive outfield free agents like Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury, and he has let others know New York is his top choice. The mutual interest isn’t all that surprising. Beltran seeks a three-year contract, however, and the Yankees only want to give him a two-year deal. Feinsand says this isn’t a deal-breaker.

Beltran, 36, hit .296/.336/.491 (132 wRC+) with 24 homers in exactly 600 plate appearances for the Cardinals last season. On the surface, a true switch-hitting right fielder with power and patience is exactly what the Yankees need. He’s a perfect fit. That said, Beltran carries plenty of risk and it goes beyond his age. Everything you need to know is in the Scouting The Market post. A two-year deal in the $28-30M range seems perfectly reasonable to me, but I’d probably walk away before pushing the offer to three years.

Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal says the Yankees are staying in touch with second-tier free agents like Nate McLouth. Money is getting tight under the $189M luxury tax threshold (even if Alex Rodriguez gets suspended), so the team needs cheaper backup outfield plans just in case they spend big on pitching over the next few weeks.

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Fan Confidence Poll: November 25th, 2013
Yanks' hardball stance with Cano could benefit all
  • Brian

    You guys need to learn how to write headlines correctly. Very misleading here.

    • Havok9120

      How so?

    • Kevin G.

      What’s so misleading?

      • Brian

        head: “Beltran prefers Yankees”
        first sentence: “The Yankees prefer Carlos Beltran to more expensive outfield free agents…”
        Two very different statements.

        • Brian

          misread. my mistake.

          • Robinson Tilapia

            We should start an online petition for an “edit comment” function. The masses are speaking, Mike.

            • I’m One

              I’d settle for an upgrade that retains my credentials and immediately updates the comments (instead of the current software version that requires me to refresh and sometimes hides comments that I know are there). But yeah, an edit function would be nice too. There are plenty of days that I just can’t seem to spell correctly or get a coheseive thought through to the keyboard.

              • Robinson Tilapia

                I type way too fast for my own good sometimes.

              • Jim Is A (Bored) Peckerhead

                I love sbnation’s commenting system.

        • BFDeal

          Sounds like a reading comprehension failure on your part.

    • Cesar

      It does say he let others know New York is his top choice

  • Dan

    Doesn’t it make more sense to give him the extra year for a lower AAV? They should be willing to do 3/$30m instead of 2/$24 (as an example).

    • Kevin

      I highly doubt that Beltran would be willing to take 3 years for 30 million dollars. Beltran will probably be paid 15 million a year in whatever his contract ends up being and 30 million of 3 years does not cut it.

      • Dan

        OK, then 3/$36, instead of 2/$30. I used the numbers as a somewhat realistic example. Remember, this past contract was 2/$26, and now he’s two years older. And before signing the previous contract he was not attached to draft pick compensation (due to a clause in his Mets contract).

    • Greg C

      That’s what I would think. So I’m prepared to be corrected.

    • gbyanks

      I think the point is that other teams are gonna offer him 3 years 45

  • hogsmog

    I’d certainly take two years of Beltran for $30m.

  • pat

    Only 8 years too late.

  • JeffG

    Yanks have enough aged/old players. Choo is younger and much better. I’d much rather do the extra years it takes to get a deal done with him.

  • Robinson Tilapia

    I’d still rather have Curtis back, but two years of Beltran would be my Plan B. Not thrilled about a three-year either.

    Fuck it. At least we had three hopefully-solid first rounders last year.

    • lightSABR

      This offseason is showing one of the (few) advantages of long contracts – assuming the player is usable for the length of the contract (big assumption), it means you sign fewer qualifying free agents and lose fewer draft picks.

  • Mark in VT

    I don’t get it. How much better is Beltran compared to Granderson? It seems like Granderson could be had for less money and without losing a draft pick.

    • Adam

      I’m of the same opinion when it comes to this. Is their relative difference in value really enough to warrant giving up that pick? Yeah, I know, “draft picks are starting to become overvalued!”, etc. But I still would much rather have Granderson signed for his age 33-35 seasons at about $45-50 million while keeping the draft pick as opposed to signing Beltran for his age 37, 38 (and potentially 39) seasons at about $30 million (~45 million if it’s for 3 years). Plus Beltran’s rapidly declining walk rate has got me a bit worried and I really appreciate Granderson’s plate discipline (as it also makes the opposing pitchers work).

      • Kosmo

        Granderson has plate discipline ? fouling off pitches and then striking out 3-4 times as much as he walks gets old. Beltran is a middle of a lineup hitter which Granderson is not. Beltran is grace under pressure which Granderson is not.

        • Havok9120

          His walk rate and pitches per plate appearance say he has a good bit of plate discipline, strikeouts aside.

      • Nick

        You guys keep talking about “keeping the draft pick”…

        We’ve already lost the 1st pick for McCann. If Granderson signs elsewhere we GAIN a pick so we’d be losing nothing when Beltran signed on. You just need to compare player vrs. player. Draft picks lost/gained aren’t a factor because even if you signed Granderson you are essentially “losing a draft pick” (the theoretical one you would get for him leaving).

        • lou

          ……..and what are they going to draft with that draft pic? A pack of gum or some guy “who is supposed” to be the next Mick?

          • Robinson Tilapia

            You have a pack of gum and Austin Aune on your bench. Who do you go with?

        • Robinson Tilapia

          Hadn’t considered this. Lose Curtis and Gain Beltran = Gaining a sandwich pick while losing a second.

          • Robinson Tilapia

            Still, though, the focus should be on just getting the outfielder you want. I’d say the difference between the sandwich pick and the second rounder is pretty negligible.

          • Havok9120

            That isn’t how it works. Your next highest pick is lost each time.

            • Robinson Tilapia

              Oh.

              Damn you, Nick.

        • Havok9120

          You’d still lose the player you could sign with a pick in the 30s rather than a pick in the 60s.

          I maintain that that difference isn’t big enough to lose out on a FA you prefer, but others disagree.

      • Robinson Tilapia

        At this point, you’re losing a second-round draft pick. I can understand some apprehension over losing a pick as high as the one lost for McCann, but worrying about a second-round pick is rather silly. The probability of success of a second-round pick is pretty damn low anywhere, even if you subscribe to the theory that every other org is run by MENSA members while the Yankees are run by Peter Griffin.

        • BFDeal

          Peter Griffin? Now I’m excited about the possibility of drafting Mrs Garrett’s bosom in the 3rd round.

    • BFDeal

      If you resign Granderson, you’re not getting that draft pick anyway.

      • MannyGeee

        This. The pick is a wash if you take one over the other.

  • Adam

    Of course the NYY are interested, he fits the bill as an over 30 year old player.

  • Bubba

    Please no. There are enough red flags concerning Beltran to see him being part of the problem, not the solution.

  • Bob Buttons

    2/35 is my guess.
    He’s looking for 3/45 so we gotta give him some more AAV but if it’s higher than that we might as well sign someone else.

    • Wicomico Pinstripes

      2/35 is a good guess. Probably gets it done. What if he absolutely needs that third year. An option that vests depending on PA’s? What does that push the total value to then?

      • Bob Buttons

        Maybe theres a player/mutual option for 16~18 mil that kicks in with combined 950~1050 PAs over the life of the contract or garner certain amount of MVP votes/

  • Kosmo

    2 years 28-30 million with a mutual option for a 3rd yr with a buyout clause of 2-4 million. So either Beltran would stand to get at least 32-34 million for 2 years or 42 million for 3.

  • Cesar

    It does say New York is his top choice

    • MannyGeee

      New York has been his top choice for a decade. No new story here…

  • nyyankfan_7

    I’ve seen a number of people say “I’d rather have Granderson and keep the draft pick than sign Beltran”. But is this really the case? Maybe I’m looking at this wrong but:

    We lost our 1st round pick by signing McCann.

    If we sign Beltran and not Grandy – we will lose the supplemental draft pick we would get for Grandy signing elsewhere and our 1st pick would be in the 2nd round.

    If we sign Grandy and not Beltran – we do not get the supplemental draft pick because we resigned him and we still pick for the 1st time in the 2nd round.

    Is that not how this plays out or am I missing something?

    • BFDeal

      You are correct.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      The draft pick thing is out the window for me now. I couldn’t give a shit about keeping the second rounder. I still link Curtis better. More power. Already a Yankee. Serviceable to good in the field. One of the best people in baseball. We know what the warts are.

      • The Other Sam

        Even with Grandy’s shortened season doesn’t Beltran has better numbers including SLG? If it’s a years thing I get that, but the ‘already a Yankee’ thing, that amounts to he’s just cheaper.

      • http://twitter.com/matt__harris Matt :: Sec110

        What does already being a Yankee have to do with it? And you mention Grandy being ‘one of the best people in baseball’…which by all accounts are true…but Beltran isn’t a bad guy.

        • MannyGeee

          He never said Beltran was a bad guy or anything. But Granderson is one of the best men in the game. No two ways about it.

          I think the sentiment is that Granderson is The Evil You Know… and he does come with a lot less in the way of injury concerns.

          I irrationally LOVE Beltran and the idea of him on the Yankees makes me pee a little bit. But given the choice of the two, I’d rather have Granderson for the next 2-4 years, all other things being equal. I love the idea of him batting 2nd between Gardner and Cano (yeah yeah yeah Jeter…)

        • Robinson Tilapia

          “The Devil You Know” kind of stuff. Clearly not my #1 priority on that list.

          Agreed as well on Beltran.

      • nycsportzfan

        Not to mention, sometimes losing a draft pick leads to more playing time for someone who woulden’t of had it and you find diamond in the rough types. I’m not saying its better then getting the pick obviously, but it just goes to show how closely alot of these players are talent wise, as you really don’t know who will be what in baseball for the most part. So basically, i agree.

  • TWTR

    I would like to have Beltran given their insistence on a win-now plan, but only for two years.

  • Eddard

    Beltran will fit in just fine with Ichiro and Vernon Wells. They’re just going to keep getting older in the outfield. Old timer’s day could be played by the current Yankee squad and nobody would know the difference.

    • TWTR

      Age is a legitimate concern, but only in the context of an acknowledgement of reality,

      In terms of OPS_, Beltran’s 128 over the last two years, while Wells and Ichiro’s are 90, 72 and 93.75, respectively.

      So there really is no comparison, but it’s why I think three years should be a dealbreaker.

      • Havok9120

        Oversimplification is Eddard’s schtick. Without that, he’d hardly ever comment.

  • Yanks4ever

    How abt 3/40-42m. W/o a NTC. Move him after 2 yrs. wouldn’t that get it done?

    • Poconos Adam

      Who exactly are you trading Beltran to when he’s 40 yrs old and making 14 mill?

      Of course Beltran is going to say nice things about the Yankees….its a right of passage of being a free agent: say you respect/love/prefer/yearn for the Yankees in an effort to boost the dollar values.

  • mike

    Love me some Beltran….even if Robbie goes, the Yanks will find a serviceable 2B somewhere who will be a net positive, as I would take McCaan/Beltran/Garza/mystery2B over Cano/Granderson/Cervelli/Ichiro/Wells

    • Robinson Tilapia

      Your mystery second baseman is a Cervelli/Ichiro/Wells platoon.

      BOOM.

      • Poconos Adam

        Ichiro is already developing in inability to get the ball out of his hands, so he’d fit with the legacy of Sax and Knoblauch!

        • jjyank
          • Pat D

            I refuse to believe that wasn’t produced in the 70s.

            • Robinson Tilapia

              The best ads were the ones produced in the 70’s. I mean, they made it look like the most glamorous place on earth.

  • Crink

    If they sign Beltran or that’d have to be the end of either Cano in pinstripes or the plan for 189. No way they could do both + get two more starting pitchers (or 400 innings)

  • http://www.twitter.com/thewallbreakers Scully

    Question for all.. lets say Beltran, regardless for who he plays for, has 3 more productive seasons and then say a crappy season and hangs em up. Is he a hall of famer?

    • MannyGeee

      Quick answer: if in those 3-4 seasons he rakes in October, then yes.

    • Robinson Tilapia

      Borderline.

      Please tell me you’re the Scully that calls up ESPN New York every now and then.

    • Wicomico Pinstripes

      In terms of career WAR Beltran currently sits at 64.1. His 2013 2.0 WAR was a productive season so if he has three more such seasons his cWAR will be around 70 or so. A cWAR of 70 would place him right next to Ivan Rodriguez(70.7) and Scott Rolen(70.1). That would also leave him ahead of a few HOF members. Most notably Roberto Alomar(63.9) and Tony Gwynn(62.6).

      It’s a tough call but if it were up to me he would be in the HOF.

  • nycsportzfan

    If we can get beltran at 2yrs, i’d be estatic. 2yrs and a team option for a 3rd yr would be even better. I’m kinda hoping they get Mark Reynolds locked up soon. I love the aspect of having 30hr power batting at the bottom of the order. If we add Beltran and Reynolds, i think our offense is pretty much set. Maybe add Eric Chavez to platoon with Reynolds, but otherwise, we would have a powerful offense.

    Gardy
    Jeter
    Cano
    Soriano
    Beltran
    Tex
    McCann
    Reynolds
    Ichiro/Wells

    Then we can focus on pitching, and only pitching. Guys like Tanaka,Feldman,Maholm,Garza, and maybe Kazmir come to mind.

    • nycsportzfan

      I’m alittle worried about Tanaka not being posted till next offseason, as hes my num 1 hopeful as a starting pitcher additon. What if he isn’t postsed and we add McCann,Beltran, and resign Reynolds and Ryan. Then would say a Feldman and Kazmir additons be enough to win a WS with the upgraded lineup?

      The rotation would look like this.
      Sabathia
      Kazmir
      Nova
      Feldman
      Phelps/Pineda

      • Robinson Tilapia

        That’s a pretty scary rotation there. You have to add someone else there. Replace Kazmir with bringing back Kuroda and I feel slightly better.

        Reynolds would definitely be a backup plan, to me. Would rather test the trade market a bit there.

        • nycsportzfan

          Ya, i’m alittle worried about Kazmir also. It’d definetly be a roll of the dice type pickup. I would probably go that route if Tanaka isn’t posted and/or signed by us, just because i believe Kazmir to have alot of upside, and i love the fact he balances out the rotation a bit by being a lefty.

          • nycsportzfan

            By upside, i mean he may of learned to pitch and not just throw since the arm injuries and ups and downs in his career. He just seemed diffrent last yr, more like a “pitcher”. Again, huge roll of dice though.

      • Wicomico Pinstripes

        I don’t trust Kazmir. I’d prefer Kuroda. Tanaka to me is almost a necessity. Feldman is a solid third option though.

        • Robinson Tilapia

          What’s scary about thinking he’s a necessity is the process involved in getting him in pinstripes. That would require them going absolutely nuts on the posting fee, and a process that still favors the team doing that.

          A lot of moveable parts. I’d love to have him. I can’t count on him being there.

          • Wicomico Pinstripes

            True. I may be higher on him than most but I’m mostly looking to the future with him. How often do you get the chance to sign a pitcher of his ability to an AAV of 10-12m for his age 25-30 seasons? Only problem is we don’t know his true talent level yet.

            • nycsportzfan

              Hes my number 1 target this offseason as well. As you said, the chance of having a future ACE at that age when you spend like us and are as successful as us, is rare. But i have my doubts about him being here, and i think we can be creative enough to make the postseason without him, which gives any team a chance to win it all. Shoot, we almost made the postseason this past yr, and we had a AS team of injuries. So, even though i want him in pinstripes badly, i’m not willing to go as far as to say “neccesity”.

  • Mscott

    Why does no one talk about Corey Hart? Much younger than Beltran, probably cheaper as well. Not much worse a fielder than Granderson or Choo. Plays 140+ games a year. No huge platoon issues. OPS+ 130, 133, 120 last three years. Hits .275/.280. Can play a (little) first base. What am I missing?

    • http://rab.com Michael Cutler

      plays 140 games a year? besides last year hahah…hes totally inferior bro come on. . . and my 64 year old dad can play first base, david ortiz plays first base

      • Mscott

        Over the last six years he has averaged 139.333 games played per year. And the Yankee backup first baseman is currently….

        Over the last three years Beltran’s average OPS+ is 135 and Hart’s is 127.

        Not saying I don’t like Beltran and that Yanks must put Hart on top of their list — I’m just asking why he isn’t part of the discussion.

  • http://rab.com Michael Cutler

    Give him 3 years 45 million. . like they SHOULD HAVE a couple of times over the past couple years!!!!!