King: MLB and NPB are still “several weeks” from posting system agreement

November 10, 2013 by Mike Axisa 25 Comments

Via George King: MLB and NPB are still negotiating changes to the posting system and remain “several weeks” away from reaching an agreement. We heard the two sides were discussing changes in September and finalizing an agreement last month, but apparently recent progress has been slow. There has been talk about giving the player some more input into the process while MLB wants to cut posting fees.

Meanwhile, Jeff Passan reiterates that the Yankees are “going to be bold” in their pursuit of Rakuten Golden Eagles right-hander Masahiro Tanaka. Re-signing Robinson Cano and landing Tanaka are considered priorities 1 and 1a, he says. The team’s scouts — the same ones who declared Yu Darvish unfit for New York — compared Tanaka’s temperament and makeup to Hideki Matsui‘s. The luxury tax-exempt posting fee is expected to climb north of $75M, but Tanaka can not be posted until MLB and NPB reach an agreement. Between this and the Alex Rodriguez ruling, it seems like everything on New York’s plate this winter is being delayed as long as possible. Hopefully the offseason doesn’t pass them by.

RetroRob

When did the Yankees scouts declare Darvish “unfit” for NY? Never heard that one before.
- Dan
  
  He sure looks soft in texas. The scary thing is this guy still has a job in the organization.
  - OhioYanks
    
    I am not a big proponent of the whole NY thing, but how have guys like Burnett, Pavano, and Vazquez looked both before and after they got to NY? Not all that soft. I have no idea if this NY spotlight thing exists, but if it does then Darvish’s success in Texas would not really be proof of much.
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  That’s quite the exagerration for sure. They had concerns, so much so that they weren’t major bidders. At the time, I thought they were right to be concerned.
  
  Also, the team’s plans being frozen until the posting system gets fixed and Alex winds up at the bottom of the Harlem River is pure speculation as well. If they’re smart, and serious about the 375 names the press says they’re attached to, they don’t wait on jack shit.
  - RetroRob
    
    Exactly. They no doubt had concerns about what they would pay in total for an unknown quantity in MLB, which is entirely different than being “unfit.” Not sure if that was Mike’s word, or from the NY Post article. Now, the fact they look to pay an even higher posting fee and contract to Tanaka, who is regarded the lesser of the two pitchers, if fair for discussion, yet two years on the team’s situation the market is different.
    
    Agreed on the team’s plans not being frozen. They will need to make educated guesses and not let the market pass them by. Sure, Jeter has $6 or $7M in potential bonuses, but he is not going to hit those bonsues, so they should not (and won’t) factor in all of them. If they want to play it safe, plan for the Silver Slugger bonus. The bar is so low at SS and we are talking about Derek Jeter, who won it exactly one year ago, so it wouldn’t be shocking if it did so in 2014. It’s at least a realistic possibility. MVP? Gold Glove? No concerns.
    
    A-Rod is more complicated, but they should plan for 50 games initially. I suspect the market will still be fairly open come mid-December, especially for a player who wants Yankee dollars involved.
    - I’m One
      
      “they should plan for 50 games initially”
      
      Personally, I’d like them to plan for 162 games or scrap the $189M celery cap.
      - Robinson Tilapia
        
        Agreed.
- Steve (different one)
  
  That’s not how I remember it, either. I thought the Yankees were concerned about how Japanese pitchers, IN GENERAL, transition to MLB from pitching once a week, different baseballs, quality of hitters, etc. I don’t remember it being specifically about Darvish, and perhaps seeing Darvish transition has helped allay those concerns.
  
  Not saying they were right, just don’t recall anyone ever saying Darvish was “unfit for NY”. I could have missed that though.
  - Laz
    
    Daisuke greatly improved his second year, then he fell off the cliff.
dars

Let’s say the Yankees struck out with every big free agent signing, including Tanaka and were only able to sign a few depth players – Eric Chavez, Mike Morse, a few low cost relief pitchers – Luis Ayala, Jose Veras, Matt Thornton and a couple of moderately priced starters- Dan Haren and Bartolo Colon, they would still be entertaining and stay competitive. So I say no worries. There will not be a championship in 2014 but it will still be fun…

Line up: Gardner CF Jeter DH Cano 2B Teixeira 1B Soriano LF Chavez 3B, Morse/Ichiro RF Nunez SS Cervelli C

Bench: Romine, Almonte, Nix and Ichiro/Morse

SP: Sabathia, Nova, Colon, Pineda, Haren
RP: Phelps, Veras, Thornton, Kelley, Ayala, Robertson, Betances
- Robinson Tilapia
  
  “Entertainment” does mean different things to different people. :)
- Captain Turbo
  
  I like your optimism but without signing a few all-star quality players to fill out the roster, 2014 is going to be 2013 redux.
  - OhioYanks
    
    With decent health and luck that could be a better team than 2013. There were long stretches of the 2013 season when the Yankees had like 2 legitimately above average MLB hitters (Cano and Gardner) in their entire line-up.
- RetroRob
  
  That team could certainly contend and be better than 2013, but only if most of those players “go right.” Jeter will need to rebound, Tex too, Soriano will need to continue his 30+ HR ways, More wil lneed to rebound, Colon will need to continue to defy age, etc. Some of those things probably will happen, yet some won’t, and that’s the issue.
  
  Then again, everything had to go right for Boston this year and it did. I just wouldn’t plan on it.
  - OhioYanks
    
    You can say that for just about every team every year. As much as older players do fall off at some point, younger players tend to be extremely inconsistent themselves (and my guess is that younger Ps get hurt more often than guys who reach 30 healthy… but just a guess).
    
    I don’t know if I would really call it “go right.” Just live up to expectations. If calculated correctly, expectations necessarily take into consideration the expected probability of negative outcomes.
Guns

This is one reason why scouting seems so archaic to me. How in the world can a scout claim to know anything about a Japanese player’s temperament? One scout may look at Darvish and see a calm, stoic competitor while another may see a wild card not ready for New York. Stuff like that seems completely subjective to me and I’m not sure how you can even claim to know someone’s temperment without knowing them personally.
- Preston
  
  Yeah, even if these scouts were properly trained to examine the mental state and personality of the players (which I’m sure they are not) the amount of time they see them or actually talk to them is far to limited to be able to make a proper determination. And right now our understanding of human psychology isn’t so good as to take even a valid assessment of somebody’s personality and make it predictive of anything.
- OhioYanks
  
  We’re dealing with speculation about a rumor here, and a rumor that several people contend never even existed at that. Who knows if this was actually information that the Yankees acted on or not?
  
  However, there certainly could have been obvious signs a P’s mental make-up is lacking that have to do with results as much as temperament. MLB teams were scouting Darvish in particular for years. I have no idea if these rumors are even true and if the Yankees acted on this information if they are, but when you’re watching guys at significantly lower levels to project their performance at significantly higher levels you certainly might pick up a tendency to wilt or get frazzled (again, in results as well as temperament) when things don’t go their way. Deciding who is a Randy Messanger and who is a Yu Darivish watching them both dominate mid-to-low minors caliber hitters is an inexact science.
CountryClub

So this is the year they’re ready to go in big on an international player and the player will probably end up being able to choose from one of three teams. If that turns out to be the case, there’s certainly no guarantees he’ll end up picking New York, no matter how much they’re willing to spend on the posting fee.
- OhioYanks
  
  Cuban players were never subject to a crazy bidding process in the first place, and the vast majority of veteran IFAs people are upset about the Yankees missing out on are Cuban. There have been some other solid Ps to be posted from Asia recently, but there’s only one of them anyone around here ever laments missing out on.
Il Cugino

But what does Pags think?
Havok9120

It might be a major benefit if they wait until the ARod thing is decided. The team will know exactly how big a pot of money they have by then.
ROBTEN

“The team’s scouts — the same ones who declared Yu Darvish unfit for New York — compared Tanaka’s temperament and makeup to Hideki Matsui‘s.”

So Tanaka’s got a massive porn collection too?
Mike

I guess laying low and not announcing intentions isn’t part of the strategy.

We’re almost daring teams to bid high for Tanaka.
- OhioYanks
  
  Or scaring them away from bidding because they don’t think they have a prayer. From what I remember, not many teams actually submitted a competitive bid for Darvish or Dice-K. The winner for both just absolutely blew everyone else out of the water according to reports.