Got seven questions for you this week. The best way to send us anything throughout the week is via the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar.
Joe asks: Should the Yankees target Arismendy Alcantara from the Cubs in the offseason? With all of Chicago’s infield prospects it seems like he will be the one left out, and may not have too high of a cost.
Yes, though there is no indication the Cubs are willing to move him. I love Alcantara. He hit .271/.352/.451 (132 wRC+) with 15 homers and 31 steals in Double-A last year, then hit .307/.353/.537 (127 wRC+) with ten homers and 21 games in Triple-A this year before being called up a few weeks ago (80 wRC+ in 32 MLB games). Alcantara is a 22-year-old switch-hitter with some power and a lot of speed, and although he can play shortstop, his best position is either second base or center field (he’s played both for Chicago).
Baseball America ranked Alcantara as the 33rd best prospect in baseball in their midseason update, one spot ahead of Luis Severino. Keith Law (subs. req’d) ranked him as the 71st best prospect in the game before the season, saying he has “upside as a potential All-Star at second base” and “might be a candidate for a Tony Phillips-type super-utility role.” Like I said, I love Alcantara since he’s a power-speed switch-hitter who can do no worse than hold his own at three up-the-middle positions. Plus he has a cool name.
He doesn’t get the same attention as some of Chicago’s other top prospects, but Alcantara is very good. The Cubbies are definitely looking for high-end pitching at this point, and unless the Yankees are willing to talk Masahiro Tanaka (lol nope) or Michael Pineda (maybe), it’s hard to see them swinging a deal for Alcantara. David Phelps or fresh off elbow reconstruction Ivan Nova ain’t getting it done. I’d love to see him in pinstripes though.
Mickey asks: Chances Brendan Ryan is the starting shortstop for the Yankees next year? Also, fill in the blank: if Brendan Ryan is the starting shortstop next year, the Yankees are _______?
I would say very small, less than 5%. I think the only way Ryan is the starting shortstop next year is if ownership completely clamps down on spending and prevents the front office from going out and signing one of the many free agent shortstops who will be available this winter (Hanley Ramirez, J.J. Hardy, Jed Lowrie, Stephen Drew, etc.). Even then, I still think they’d try to make a trade. I see Ryan as Plan E or F at shortstop. The last resort. As for filling in that blank, I would say both “very bad” and “still looking for an upgrade.”
Stettinius asks: Y or N: Give David Robertson a qualifying offer, but not a contract offer. If he takes it, great, we’ve got an elite closer. If not, we’ve got two top 40 draft picks, Dellin Betances as closer, and Jacob Lindgren and his 10 K/BB knocking on the door.
Definite N for me. Make the qualifying offer and a contract offer. Offense has fallen around the league and every game is close these days, meaning a strong and deep bullpen is more important than ever before. Robertson isn’t irreplaceable but he’s not far off. Elite relievers who have shown they can close in New York and have no history of arm problems are rare and the Yankees should make every effort to keep him. I wouldn’t say they should keep him at any price, there’s always a point where you walk away, but there is plenty of room out in that bullpen for Robertson, Betances, Lindgren, and whoever else they dig up. Robertson’s a long-term keeper in my book.
Stimson asks: With Pineda pitching 171 innings in 2011 and only 20+ so far this year (including Wednesday’s game), assuming he stays healthy, does he have any innings limit for the rest of this season? 2015? If not, should he?
The Yankees claimed Pineda did not have an innings limit this year, but I didn’t fully buy that. You have to watch a guy’s workload after he misses two years with major shoulder surgery. The same will apply next year. If he stays healthy the rest of the year, Pineda will get up to about 50 innings this year, so we’re talking 50 big league innings in the span of three years. I don’t know if they’ll set a hard number on it — he won’t throw more than 170 innings, for example — but they will have to be careful with him (like they were in April) and pay extra attention for any signs for fatigue. I know Pineda will be turn 26 over the winter and will be out of the so-called “injury nexus,” but that doesn’t mean they should turn him loose. He physically might not be up for it. I expect it them to monitor his workload watch him like a hawk all season.
JonS asks: What is the actual reasoning behind expanding rosters in September?
No one actually knows. Ted Berg spoke to MLB historian John Thorn (a must follow on Twitter) about this a few years ago, but not even Thorn knew how September call-ups originated. Here’s what he said:
I can only speculate that as minor-league seasons tended to close earlier than major-league ones, September seemed to be a good time to reward high-performing aspirants perhaps less expensively than inviting them to spring camp. The extra-manpower feature surely was not as important in the early days, when staring pitchers tended to complete a high percentage of their games.
Every year there is a big debate about expanded rosters and whether they’re fair and all that, but I am all for them. As long as every team is allowed to call up the same number of players, it’s fair to me. It’s not, for example, the Yankees problem if they call up eleven extra players while the Orioles only call up seven. Reward the teams that have better depth later in the season.
Phil asks: For the next mailbag, can you take a look at opposite-field power? I’m talking about HR’s specifically. I feel like I’ve watched every game this season, and I’m having a hard time remembering one opposite field HR. I remember when our RH bats could use the short porch, and when our LH bats were so awesome, they could put a pitch on the outside corner out of anywhere but YS.
The Yankees have hit 108 total homers this year, and of those 108, only three (!) were hit to the opposite field. Three! Mark Teixeira hit one (video), Frankie Cervelli hit one (video), and Alfonso Soriano hit one (video). That’s it. Both Teixeira’s and Cervelli’s literally hit the top of the wall and hopped over while Soriano’s made the seats. That’s nuts. Giancarlo Stanton (who else?) leads MLB with eight opposite field taters this year. Here are some more numbers on New York’s opposite field power production:
NYY Total HR | NYY Oppo. HR | NYY Oppo. HR% | NYY Oppo. ISO | AL Oppo. ISO | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2014 | 108 | 3 | 2.8% | 0.086 | 0.117 |
2013 | 144 | 18 | 12.5% | 0.122 | 0.130 |
2012 | 245 | 40 | 16.3% | 0.198 | 0.133 |
2011 | 222 | 17 | 7.7% | 0.130 | 0.117 |
2010 | 201 | 13 | 6.5% | 0.115 | 0.120 |
2009 | 244 | 29 | 11.9% | 0.162 | 0.129 |
Even last season the Yankees were more or less an average team when it came to hitting the other way for power. This year they aren’t particularly close. That stems from their lack of power hitters in general, but especially righties who are able to take advantage of the short porch in right field. I mean, their best right-handed power hitter right now is Francisco Cervelli. That is something they have to address this offseason. The ability to hit the ball with authority the other way is nonexistent this year.
Shaya asks: Has Gardner hit enough this year to win a Gold Glove? I know he isn’t flashy out there, but he gets to just about everything so he doesn’t really need to exert himself like other flashier fielders. Who would be his main competition?
It’s possible, sure. Offense shouldn’t be part of the Gold Glove process but it’s no secret the managers and coaches who vote each year factor it in. A sabermetric component was added a few years ago, but that only counts for 25% of the vote. Gardner is hitting well (125 wRC+) and the various defensive stats say he’s been good but not great in left (+2 DRS, +3.6 UZR, +3 Total Zone, -1.2 FRAA). Remember, they now give Gold Gloves to the specific outfield spots, so Gardner will be up against other left fielders. That includes Alex Gordon (120 wRC+ and +20 DRS) and Michael Brantley (155 wRC+ and -1 DRS). Gardner is awesome, but Gordon deserves to win. He’s outstanding in left.
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