Aug
16

Saturday Night Open Thread

By

Here is your open thread for the rest of the night. The Mets are playing, the Little League World Series is on, and both the (football) Giants and Jets are playing preseason games. Talk about those games, this afternoon’s win, or anything else right here.

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Categories : Open Thread
  • forensic

    Out of curiosity, is the Giants game on live in NY right now or are you all stuck with the tape delay version on NFLN later too?

    • NYCORNERSTONE

      is it on NFL later ?

      • forensic

        It’s actually on now, out here at least.

        • NYCORNERSTONE

          THANKS BUDDY I CAUGHT IT !

  • Bigdan

    Really makes no difference whether the Prado or Roberts is at 2b. Or who’s at 3rd. The Yanks have won the same way all year. Good starting pitching, excellent bullpen. Barely enough runs to win a close game. The infield will give up a run now and then no matter who’s out there and it just looks worse because the offense is so damn bad. Coming into today’s action, the Yanks were 14th in the league in runs scored. Worse than last year. Unbelievable.

    In a season like this one, you take your pleasures where you find them and today is was Shane Greene. Awesome stuff. Everything to like about this guy. Great demeanor on the mound too.

    Do ya think Headley’s epidural has worn off? Boy does he look terrible lately at the plate. But the more important player, Prado, had a nice dinger. I just wonder if he’s a platoon player now at this point in his career. Some severe splits the last couple years. Pretty damn expensive short platoon bat if that’s who he is.

    Well, it’s winding down. . .

    • Tar

      The Yankees infield defense screwed up and allowed the tying run. The Rays infield defense screwed up and allowed the lead-off batter to reach 2nd who later scored.

      Oh I get it….they cancel each other out, so infield defense really doesn’t matter!! You’re a genius Biggiedan

      • Bigdan

        Yep. You got it. As I’ve pointed out since ST, on a major league level, infield defense has very little impact on winning pct and the Yanks of 2014 have been compelling proof of that.

        Like I’ve said. This ain’t beer ball!!

        • UnKnown

          Absolutely unequivocally FALSE! No matter how many times you say it. False false false false

        • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

          Mike just did a piece on infield defense, BABIP and ERA for the team a few days ago, but whatever.

        • Preston

          Every aspect of the game has value. The difference between Roberts/Johnson/Solarte and Drew/Prado/Headley on defense is significant. Probably several wins over a full season.

          • UnKnown

            See this is where the baseball savant changes his tune. He will say it has value but not as much as hitting or pitching. Gee you think! Nobody is even arguing that point with him.

            I think the only baseball he has ever seen was a beer ball game.

          • Bigdan

            Unknown and not provable,

            • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

              They play defense for a reason.

        • Alkaline

          I’ll enjoy seeing exactly how you prove on the MLB level that infield defense has little impact on winning percentage. I’m an evidence based baseball sort of guy. I like citations.

      • UnKnown

        It’s bad when you can already type up his response for him isn’t it. I was thinking the exact same thing. LOL

        Now just think if either one of those teams would have played flawless defense. Guess what, that team would’ve won. But it doesn’t matter I guess? It only was the difference between a win and a loss. Ho Hum….

        • Bigdan

          I call this the fallacy of the result.

          • Preston

            In total the difference between a good defensive team and a bad defensive team over the course of a season is a lot. So far this season the Cardinals have saved 54 runs according to DRS and the Indians have given up 81, that’s a 135 run swing. It’s hard for you to argue that isn’t impacting the standings. For most teams it doesn’t matter because they fall somewhere in the middle, but if you field butchers at all nine it’s going to cost you, and if you field excellent defenders at all nine it’s going to help you.

            • Bigdan

              First of all, I don’t trust defensive metrics and runs saved calculations. But your last point seems intuitive doesn’t it? See my discussion above in about 5 minutes.

              • Preston

                You can put huge error bars on DRS and still admit that it’s a huge difference. By wRC+ the Indians have the 5th best offense in the AL, by FIP they have the third best pitching staff, yet because they’re awful defensively they have the 9th best record.

                • Bigdan

                  How does that work out with the Yanks? That is, comparing their pitching and offense rankings, and then some defensive metric, and then their winning pct. I bet, based on their offense and pitching, they’ve over achieved in terms of winning pct. Does that mean that their defense has been a net positive?

                  • Preston

                    No, using W-L record was lazy on my part. The difference is the Indians record is right in line with their pythag record. The Yankees have way outperformed their pythag. That’s not the result of good defense, good defense would have stopped runs from crossing the plate. It’s just lucky sequencing (or some would argue it is because of their bullpen gives them a huge advantage in one run games).

                    • Bigdan

                      I agree with the bullpen argument. And that defense for the Yanks is virtually irrelevant to their winning pct.

  • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

    LOL Hakeem Nicks. Sweet karma.

  • J Green

    graeme f—ing lloyd

    • Hearn

      Back when this team had backbone. That spirit died with the new corporate stadium

  • TB

    Captain Clutch comes through – WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

  • https://twitter.com/KramerIndustry Dr. Martin van Nostrand

    Honestly, I had thought Sean Rod had tied the game when he first hit that pitch, along with DRob’s reaction. Thankfully he had not.

    • TB

      So did I to tell you the truth…. But I also though Beltran had crushed a 2 run shot in the 7th too

  • Macho Man “Randy Levine”

    Hmm. Seems like it’s time to start looking forward to 2015.

    For the Giants.

    • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

      New OC, same Eli Manning.

      • Macho Man “Randy Levine”

        Yea, too bad he hasn’t won two Super Bowls or anything.

        • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

          Don’t get me wrong, I’m fine with his past success, but at the same time this supposed “revitalization” from a new OC just hasn’t happened yet.

          • Macho Man “Randy Levine”

            Yes, I totally agree with you. I was hoping he’d bounce back but so far it seems that they’ve gone in the wrong direction.

            I’m not totally opposed to them sucking. I love Coughlin, but it’s time for someone new. But I REALLY want to get Jerry Reese’s sorry ass out of there.

            • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

              Reese saw some firewood under his chair and went out and bought some new toys. That’s my view on this un-reese-like offseason.
              While I think Reese has his good and bad moments, somebody will be axed if the season turns out disappointing, and unless Coughlin retires, Reese is outta there.

              • Macho Man “Randy Levine”

                Reese has really done very little good since he’s been GM. Everyone gave him sooooo much credit for the 2007 draft, but now none of those guys are left on the team except for DeOssie. Since then his drafts have been pretty mixed, with more disappointment than success.

                He really hasn’t made any standout free agency movies, either, and I’m starting to wonder about the entire organization’s developmental skills at this point.

                • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

                  He’ll never be mistaken for a great GM but at least he never pulled any dumb moves that made league-wide notoriety like Albert Haynesworth, Mark Sanchez or having his phone conversation recorded.

  • Bigdan

    People really don’t understand baseball. The Yanks’ win today is virtually meaningless regarding its reflection of the quality of this team. It was how they won that was meaningful. The Yanks won another one run game. Just like they did against Detroit. They could have just as easily lost today just like they could have just as easily lost three against Detroit. Infield defense only seems important because the Yanks play so many tight games. But on a ML level, infield D is dominated by a random factor. One day it helps you win, one day it helps you lose. It all nets out really because it’s not really all that important. It’s basically like flipping a coin.

    What is significant is why the Yanks can only win games that are close. That is the determining factor in this analysis of team quaility. The offense, or lack there of. If infield defense were so impactful the Yanks could never have played as well as they did before it was improved at the deadline. Not with an offense so poor and pitching that was mostly average. Actually I think OF defense is more impactful and the Yanks superior OF defense probably negated the negative impact of their infield D. But it really makes no difference anyway. Everything here this year for the Yankees is driven by the fact that they have one of the worst offenses in the league. That’s why they are where they are. Defense, as per usual, is just a sideshow.

    • UnKnown

      Nice Novel. Could’ve just wrote “I, BigDan, do not understand baseball”

      Keep that trick in your back pocket when you decide to publish your next book on here again. Much easier.

      • BigLoving

        If you don’t like the comment just move past it. No need to turn this into an ESPN board.

        • UnKnown

          Thanks Bud. Any other earth shattering advice you got. Cause that one there is pretty hard hitting boy.

    • UnKnown

      Unknown and not provable.

    • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

      So if defense is useless and offense sucks we’re suppose to win with pitching?

      Now I don’t look into defensive metrics but I think that you can tell the difference between Brendan Ryan and Eduardo Nunez playing shortstop. Certain people get to more balls and certain people messes up balls they get to. Roberts was neither particularly range-y or sure-handed in the latter parts of his Yankees tenure. Discounting something that you don’t believe can be quantified is just ignorance. Tell me, what’s your view on the universe and the vastness (or smallness) of it?

      • TB

        Range factor and defensive metrics is the most floored and useless stat in baseball – you can tell every easily with your own eyes about fielders

        • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

          To be completely honest, I think that if one watches enough games of the two players one can probably have a generally accurate opinion of who’s better between the two, provided that one knows factors such as route running and actual range instead of just judging on instincts.

          Now range factor, that honestly is a meaningless stat while alone. IF will have higher RF if their staff is GB heavy and vice versa, in addition to your own teammates “stealing” outs.

        • Preston

          Just because the data is flawed doesn’t mean it’s useless. For the most part I think defensive stats are in the ballpark. There are players that the numbers are off on. Usually it’s because of an anomalous home ballpark or bad alignment on the part of their manager.

      • NYCORNERSTONE

        well yanks always go through a real bad spot every august , maybe thell get hot and some luck wouldn’t hurt

    • nsalem

      Being one of those stupid people who just don’t understand baseball I would love it if you can tell me how you gained so much wisdom and how does it feel to be so intelligent. Please share this with me and all the other little people on this site who are so misunderstanding of the game we have spent our lives watching obsessively. Thank you for enlightening us by sharing you brilliant analysis and your conclusion that the main problem with the Yankees is their lack of offense. If you had not come along and shared this I don’t think anyone here would have noticed this. Actually a couple of times this season it did dawn on me and a few others that the Yankee’s were losing so many games because they were scoring 3 runs or less in just about half of their games. Thank you for confirming with your genius that this is the main reason.
      Stupid me. I also thought all those errors Roberts were making, Jeter lack of range, Solarte’s inconsistencies at 3rd and Tex’s replacements in all those games he didn’t play having absolutely no experience at the position were costing the Yankees. Thanking you for coming along and proclaiming that all those miserable mistakes which seemed to occur night after night were just something random and they did not contribute to the Yankees losing. This also probably means that all those great and amazing plays I used to see Cano meant nothing also and never contributed to the Yankees winning ways.

      • Bigdan

        Apparently Cano, according to defensive metrics, wasn’t a very good defender. But if it makes you feel better, I miss him too :)

  • BigLoving

    God dam that video makes me miss the old Yanks. Every single player came out of the dugout the second Tino got hit. Bullpen, bench players, starters…….everyone had each others back and we’re not going to let Benetiz get away with it. After watching the Yanks get plunked time after time the last 10 years and doing nothing about it, not even retaliating later in the game it makes me pine for this bunch of players.

    • Preston

      It’s 2014, we now understand what concussions can do to players. It’s time to outgrow all this BS about unwritten rules. If a guy makes a mistake it’s part of the game, move on. If a guy hits somebody on purpose the league should give him a meaningful suspension. I don’t need to see all the retaliatory posturing by players or brawls to enjoy baseball.

      • Tar

        There’s a right way and a wrong way. Now I understand some players have their head up their butts, but I have never heard of anyone getting a concussion from being drilled in the ass. No headhunting.

        If it’s a mistake ok…if it’s on purpose, or even just careless pitching, you have to protect your team mates.

        • Preston

          Does it protect your team mates? Usually it just escalates the situation and means that your team mates are in danger every time you face that team.

          • BigLoving

            Yeah it does. If you know a team is going to react like the Yanks did in the above video you have to be an absolute moron to pull a stunt like Benetiz did. The O’s players and management hated it also bc it put their guys in a bad situation, I’m sure he was berated in the clubhouse by his own teammates after the game. It was no coincidence that this was Benetiz last season with the O’s.

        • Alkaline

          Now I understand some players have their head up their butts, but I have never heard of anyone getting a concussion from being drilled in the ass.

          I don’t know about you, but I’ve see some pitchers have trouble locating a strike zone. I don’t want to see a pitcher throw at a batter, even if the “intentions” are to aim for the butt. You throw at someone, you have the change to hit a person in the head with 90+ mph fastball. I’ve seen firsthand what head injuries from a baseball could do. You don’t mess around with that. End of story.

    • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

      While I’ll defend those who thinks retaliation for non-intentional HBP is bad if I was a pitcher and anyone hits our guys and our guys are rolling around in pain, one of their guys will be doing some push-ups.

    • Trisha

      Just want to tell you that there is at least one poster from lohud who is rude, crude, uneducated, and many times vulgar. (No, it is not I.) She lives to cut people down and make fun of them. You probably have figured it out already. My advice would be to ignore her. I’m hoping that she will continue to pull the crap she pulled on lohud because Chad was unable to see through her. My take on Mike Axisa is that she’ll be out on her butt in no time flat.

  • Bigdan

    Ok, let’s break this theory down further. Oh, and as an aside, this is another truly original thought that I’ve contributed. A few months ago I did a post on the other site trying to add all those original thoughts up, I need to find that sometime. Concepts like defined and undefined hitters, as well current and potential prospect value and it’s impact on trade analysis are all part of the catalog. But lets stay on point.

    Suppose you pulled 50 games by random and studied them closely and identified each infield fail in every game. Infield fail being an error or some misplay or a loss opportunity of an out. And then you studied and tried to determine whether the fail actually impacted the game result. Another way to say it would be how it affected win probability. I bet a very small percentage of infield fails impacted game results or affected win probability in a meaningful way. I’ve written a lot about why that’s the case before so I’ll skip that for now.

    Now, suppose you take two teams. One with an average infield defense and one with an above average infield defense. Clearly the team with above average infield acumen would have fewer infield fails over a given period. But because infield fails have such a low probability of affecting game results, it’s quite possible that the superior fielding team will have as many or more costly fails as an average fielding team. That’s the random factor that I’ve discussed before. It’s huge when it comes to infield defense. You can’t predict when a really good 3b is going to make one of his few errors. It might occur in the 9th inning of a tie game.

    But what’s also important is this fact. There isn’t really much of a difference in the BABIP on ground balls between good and average defensive teams. Perhaps one or two ground balls per hundred. So when you consider that with the random factor discussed above, it becomes pretty apparent that game results are not really driven by this factor. That’s what I mean when I say major league baseball isn’t Sunday beer ball. Even poor defenders are actually really really good.

    All this adds up to my theory that there’s really not much of a competitive advantage to superior infield defense. I’m hoping some day somebody with a lot of time can do a real empirical study on this. But until then, this is what makes sense to me. And this year’s Yankee team seems to prove out my theory almost every game. In the mean time, I’ll probably move on to something else.

    • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

      http://riveraveblues.com/2014/.....ld-107172/

      You mind reading this first?

      • UnKnown

        I don’t think he is really into things that prove that his mantra is pure garbage. He probably won’t like that piece to which you linked.

        Besides he “discredits” those things and doesn’t see value in them. So there!

      • Bigdan

        Yea I remember that. And what’s interesting is even when it was generally perceived that the Yanks had poor infield defense before the deadline trades, their BABIP on grounders wasn’t much different than league average. That supports my point above that even bad defenders are actually really good and there’s little competitive advantage in having superior infield defense.

        Moreover, how much better have the Yanks played in terms of winning pct since their infield defense improved? I know, my point exactly.

        • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

          I’m trying to stuff cooked fish that are almost expired down my throat so I got time.

          http://www.baseball-reference......2013.shtml

          AL average was 5559 at bats for each team. 1222 strikeouts for each team and 167 homers. So that’s 5559-1222-167=4170 balls in play each team in a season
          Knock it down for 4100 to make it easier and account for ground-rule doubles.

          .255-.194=.061 pts

          4100*.061= 250.1 hits

          Your pick of either about .50 points higher for every single player on the team or a single player batting .450 higher OVER AN ENTIRE SEASON.

          I’m not gonna bother putting it in WAR since you don’t believe in it, but if an entire team batted that much better it is undeniable that a team will be improved by a lot, but I’m sure you can find a way to deny it.

          • Bigdan

            I’m a little confused here. Are you analyzing BABIP of ground balls? I saw an analysis I think on this blog (could be wrong) of BABIP for ground balls over the All Star break. There was a 1.4% difference between the Yanks and league average. That’s one and a half more hits per 100 ground balls.

            I’d be careful of the fish thing.

            • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

              I’m using this year’s BABIP difference on groundballs, two extremities (to prove that there is a difference between a crap defense and a very good one), on last year’s entire at bats including balls in the air (not just groundballs). Of course the numbers would look a bit on the wild side, because it’s an extreme example to highlight the difference. There is no way in hell that a team can manage a BABIP against of .255, nevermind .194, since line drives and OF bloops drive the OF BABIP numbers high.

              I’d be careful of the context if I were you.

              • Bigdan

                Maybe it’s the rum, but I still don’t see your point. What I do see is very little difference in BABIP and between the Yanks allegedly poor infield D and league average pre-All Star break.. I don’t see how 1.5 hits per 100 ground balls will have a significant impact on game results.

                Now it’s my dinner time.

    • Alkaline

      So, hypothetically, in two straight innings, the would be 3rd out is muffed by an infielder. Maybe one is a pretty difficult play, but he isn’t good enough to make it. No runs end up scoring, but a few more guys get on, but the pitcher gears up and adds a little oomph both innings to get out of it. This means the pitcher has to throw X amount of extra pitches those two innings. At this point, the pitch count is higher, the pitcher is a bit more tired, more stressful pitches, etc. have all occurred. You don’t see the result on the scoreboard, maybe not in BABIP, but you’re telling me that defense didn’t have an effect on their pitcher and their game?

  • Trisha

    What chance do you give the Yankees of making it to the postseason? Any?

    This is a serious question.

    • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

      Fun fact: as of this moment, on MLB.com, the Yankees have 2.9% chance to win the division and 2.8% chance to win the wild card.

      5% sounds about right, so I’ll go with that.

      • Preston

        fangraphs has them at 7.9%

        • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

          Either way it’s a longshot. If they miss postseason at least I can have fun watch the Gi- never mind.

    • NYCORNERSTONE

      10% chance

    • Trisha

      I know we have a different set of factors going on in the AL East, but do you remember when the fenway franks were down 8 games in August and all of a sudden had a huge resurgence and came roaring back. I don’t remember what year it was. I guess it would take a heck of a lot to fall into place for our Yanks to ever have something like that happen.

      It isn’t that we don’t have the players. It’s that the players aren’t living up to the backs of their cards. Or they’re injured and can’t play at full steam.

      • Preston

        The Yankees have a clear path to the post-season, they need to start hitting better and they need to win all the games left against the O’s. It’s hard to see that happening after the last week, but it’s not impossible.

        • Trisha

          Okay, I am going to vote for the potentially improbable. If we all put out positive energy, maybe the Yankee’s universe will be affected by it.

          • Farewell Mo

            What an insightful comment

  • NYCORNERSTONE

    Yanks won i think im gonna faint :)

  • UnKnown

    HAHA

  • dkidd

    always laugh at the moment brosius ends up face-to-face with benitez and is like “uh oh”

    • Macho Man “Randy Levine”

      He always looked like he wasn’t willing to fight for some reason.

  • NYCORNERSTONE

    yanks 7 back birds got shutout

    • UnKnown

      We’re not catching them. This team can barely scrape out 1 win.

  • NYCORNERSTONE

    you think there may be the curse of Cano going on

    • UnKnown

      Wouldn’t that be something.

      • NYCORNERSTONE

        you mean wouldn’t that suck what was it a 100 yr curse yikes

        • UnKnown

          Yeah it would suck. Luckily there is no curse man.

  • Dr. Martin van Nostrand

    it makes me feel just moderately better that the O’s were just as helpless against Carlos Carrasco as the Yankees were. Maybe something is clicking for Carlos, whatever, but it at least happened two starts in a row and it wasn’t just a case of the Yankees offense doing whatever the Yankees offense does.

    • NYCORNERSTONE

      Bauer threw a great game the other night too yanks beat him bad last week

  • UnKnown

    I would like to issue on this open post an apology for my behavior on here the other day. I now realize that this place has no tolerance for my classless, crude, and horrific words.

    • NYCORNERSTONE

      lol

    • NYCORNERSTONE

      wheres the like button in this blog :)

    • UnKnown

      Nice try. Next time capitalize the “K” you will be more believable. But still nice effort.

      • UnKnown

        Please stop impersonating me.

        • Farewell Mo

          You people never stop with your crap, do you?

  • UnKnown

    Hey Little Mikey is here. Candy Bars anyone??

    • UnKnown

      Please stop impersonating me and find your own handle.

  • UnKnown

    We have an impersonator doing the double as me.

  • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

    Giants somehow won. Count me under “surprised as hell”.

    • NYCORNERSTONE

      awesome like baseball you never now whats going to happen .

      • http://www.google.com Tanuki Tanaka

        If the fan confidence vote was tomorrow I’d probably be a 9. Both NYY and NYG pulling off semi-miracle wins, it’s a good day/night to be a NY sports fan.

        • NYCORNERSTONE

          Yanks just need start hitting it seems they are not looking at ball in a lot of at bats there still watching the pitcher when they swing they need to fire long and light a fire maybe that will open their eyes i think they call that seeing the ball !

  • nsalem

    Though the odds are getting long I haven’t given up yet. After tomorrow 15 of the next 22 games are at home. In the short term after tomorrow we have 6 game against the Astros. We see the Royals 4 time and the Tigers 3 times. If we can get pick up just 2 games on the 2nd WC and have a healthy Tanaka and Pineda in the rotation by the second week of September there will be that glimmer of hope. Not much but at least enough to keep me watching. You also don’t know yet if we will get Castillo and if he can help. If in two weeks we are still not offensive production from 2B I hope to see Refsnyder in pinstripes come the first. Maybe he has a Shane Spencer September in him.

  • UnKnown

    Hopefully Kuroda comes strong tomorrow. Really need him down the stretch. I think the extra rest he has been getting will help. The win today doesn’t mean anything unless we win again tomorrow.

    • nycsportzfan

      Coulden’t agree more. WIth Pineda back, and the way McCarthy and Greene have pitched on top of Tanaka possibly returning, Kuroda is the key for us to have outstanding pitching most nights, and keep this offense in games down the stretch..

  • nycsportzfan

    Yanks face 3 LHPs in there next 5 games. Oberholtzer, Kuechel, and Danks.. Expecting to see todays lineup in all those games, I would think? It’d mean Brendan Ryan plays a bunch the up coming 5games, but I trust him more against the lefties then Drew right now..

    Gardy
    Jeets
    Ells
    Tex
    Beltran
    Headley
    Prado
    Frankie
    Ryan

    • forensic

      You’re likely only going to see Cervelli in there in one of the 5 games, Thursday afternoon against Keuchel. Jeter’s also not going to DH that much and I wouldn’t think Beltran is going to play the field on anything similar to a regular basis, especially right away.
      Ideally, IMO, you’d have Ichiro in RF, Beltran at DH, and Prado at 2B for those games.

      • Mick

        It’s time for a Drew-Prado platoon at 2nd.
        Beltran in RF.
        McCann back in the lineup with Cervelli at DH and vice versa.