Six questions and six answers in this week’s mailbag. If you’d like to send us anything, mailbag questions or links or cooking tips or whatever, use the Submit A Tip box in the sidebar. We get a ton of questions each week, so don’t take it personally if we don’t answer yours.
Tim Leary asks: Am I the only one who thinks that nobody won the Jesus Montero-Michael Pineda deal? Just because Montero is seemingly a disaster right now and Pineda has made seven starts now, doesn’t mean the Yankees won. Montero could have fetched any number of star caliber players from 2010 through 2012 and the Yankees flipped him for an asset who subsequently got hurt and missed two full years. I just don’t see how in retrospect you can say the Yankees “won the trade” with that misuse of a top asset. Your thoughts?
There are a bunch of different ways to evaluate a trade, right? The easiest and lamest way is to add up the WARs, in which case both FanGraphs (1.1 vs. -0.8) and Baseball Reference (1.6 vs. -0.4) say the Yankees won the trade. That doesn’t include Hector Noesi, who would only further tip the scales in the Yankees’ favor, though Jose Campos would give some of that back since he hasn’t done much of anything or been particularly healthy these last three years.
Another way and arguably the fairest way to evaluate is trade is based on what we knew at the time. Back in January 2012, we knew:
- Pineda just had an All-Star debut season and was the first rookie in history to qualify for the ERA title with 9+ K/9 and sub-3 BB/9. He had five years of team control remaining.
- Montero had a monster September in pinstripes and was widely regarded as one of the two or three best hitting prospects in baseball despite his lack of position. He had six years of team control remaining.
- Noesi had a nice MLB debut season as a swingman and looked like someone cut from the David Phelps and Adam Warren cloth. He had six years of team control remaining.
- Campos was a good looking pitching prospect way down in the short season leagues.
That’s what we knew at the time. Based on that, I think you’d have to say the Yankees got the better end of the deal because Pineda had established dominance at the MLB level. I’ve always said I thought the trade was fair value (or that the Yankees actually came out ahead) on paper, but I wouldn’t have done it because I thought they had a much greater need for a young middle of the order bat than the young top flight arm. I was kinda right, no?
Anyway, there is also an opportunity cost element here — what they actually got vs. what they could have gotten had they traded these players elsewhere — but how could we possibly evaluate that with any sort of accuracy? Unless reports come out involving these players and trades that were turned down, it’s all guesswork. We know for a fact the Blue Jays said no to Montero for Roy Halladay and that the Mariners backed out of a Montero for Cliff Lee deal, but that’s really it. Knowing that, how could you say “Montero could have fetched any number of star caliber players from 2010 through 2012?” We assume the Yankees could have gotten something nice if they traded Montero elsewhere but we don’t know that for sure.
I think the simplest and most straight-forward way to evaluate a trade like this is: did either team get what they wanted? Did the Yankees get the young pitcher who claimed a spot near the top of their rotation? Did the Mariners get their big middle of the order bat? The answer to both of those questions is no. Neither team has gotten what they wanted out of this deal. Does that mean they both lost? I guess. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter who wins and who loses. There is no trade scorecard. The Yankees are left with Pineda and Campos and what happens with the Mariners is mostly irrelevant to their end of the trade. This deal has not worked out as hoped for either team and although I will stop short of calling it win for the Yankees, I do know I’d much rather have their end of the trade than Seattle’s right now.
Dustin asks: Do you think Kevin Long could be under any heat this offseason? It wouldn’t be necessarily deserved, but given the problems getting on base and scoring runs all season.
Yeah I think so. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Yankees, after spending all that money last offseason only to win fewer games and score fewer runs in 2014 than they did in 2013 (which they’re on pace to do), look for someone to take the fall after the season. Ownership reportedly wants to bring Brian Cashman back and I suspect that’s what will happen. Joe Girardi sure as hell shouldn’t go anywhere, so now we’re down to the coaches, and pitching coach Larry Rothschild deserves a lot of credit for keeping the rotation afloat despite the injuries. That leaves Long, right? If someone is going to be scapegoated for the season, the process of elimination leaves him as the likely candidate.
Justin asks: How much money comes off the Yankee payroll at the end of the season? Off the top my head I got Derek Jeter, Hiroki Kuroda, David Robertson, Brandon McCarthy, Chase Headley, and Ichiro Suzuki. Did I miss any one significant? Also will $189M will be a issue this offseason? If so how much room to work do they have?
According to Cot’s, the Yankees already have $168.8M in salary commitments for next season. Those players Justin mentioned plus Stephen Drew are the notable guys set to hit free agency, clearing money. Remember, Alex Rodriguez and his massive salary will be coming back. A-Rod is included in that $168.8M but the team’s arbitration-eligible players are not. This winter’s crop of arbitration-eligible players includes Pineda, Ivan Nova, Phelps, Shawn Kelley, Frankie Cervelli, Esmil Rogers, Josh Outman, and David Huff. Rogers, Outman, and Huff are all non-tender candidates. Pineda and Phelps will get nice raises as first time eligible players, Nova and Kelley less so by virtue of being hurt and a non-closing reliever, respectively.
Including the arbitration guys, the Yankees already have something like $180M to $185M on the books for 18 players next year when you include Rogers, Outman, and Huff. Non-tendering them clears three roster spots but would results in minimal savings, maybe dropping them down to $175M to $180M for 15 players. This is all back of the envelope stuff, obviously. The Yankees have opened the last few years with a payroll in the $195M to $210M range, and if they stick to that again, they’ll have approximately $20M to $30M to spend this offseason unless they manage to shed some salary through trades. The biggest needs are a big bat (right field?), another starting pitcher or two, and a reliever or two if Robertson leaves.
Adam asks: Any idea/prediction on what this offseason’s qualifying offer amount will be? And does it make sense to offer to D-Rob and/or Kuroda?
Estimations have this winter’s qualifying offer just north of $15M. Last offseason it was $14.1M, the offseason before that $13.3M. The Yankees can not make qualifying offers to McCarthy, Headley, or Drew by rule since they were traded at midseason. Kuroda is again on the fence about retirement and the Yankees have made him the qualifying offer in each of the last two winters, so I think they will again just in case he decides to spent another year in Los Angeles or something. He didn’t accept the last two qualifying offers, instead opting to negotiate a new one-year deal. I think they trust he would do that again.
I definitely think the Yankees will and should make Robertson a qualifying offer. He just might accept, at which point the team could either keep him another year at an inflated salary (not the worst thing in the world) or use it as a stepping stone towards a long-term deal. If Robertson doesn’t accept, it might kill his market. I’m not sure how many teams will give up a high draft pick to sign a reliever, even an elite one. Remember, Rafael Soriano sat out there unsigned until Yankees ownership felt the need to grab some headlines a few winters ago. My feeling at this moment is that it makes sense to extend the qualifying offer to both Robertson and Kuroda, and that the team will do just that.
Paul asks: Thoughts on the Yankees trying to get some extensions done this month, before the end of the season? D-Rob and B-Mac (is that what we call him?) seem likely candidates. Or is it more likely they’ll wait until the season ends? Also, remind me again of how the exclusive negotiating period works please. Thanks.
I know Cashman has said the no extensions policy is a thing of the past, but I would be surprised if they took the time to work out any extensions this month. Robertson and McCarthy and maybe Headley are the obvious candidates for a new contract. I assume they’ll wait until after the season to work on that. The five-day exclusive negotiating period starts the day after the end of the World Series, but the Yankees are unlikely to go to the postseason, so they’ll have the entire month of October to discuss any extensions as well. They’ll have plenty of time to talk about new deals with McCarthy and/or Robertson and I hope they do just that. There are obvious reasons to keep both and few reasons to let either go.
Jamie asks: The Yankees offensive woes makes me wonder: how many times have they been shut out? Scored one run? Two? Three? Four? Five? Etc.
As always, Baseball Reference makes this nice and easy. To the table:
Runs | Games | Wins | Loss | |
---|---|---|---|---|
0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | .000 |
1 | 18 | 2 | 16 | .111 |
2 | 19 | 5 | 14 | .263 |
3 | 22 | 10 | 12 | .455 |
4 | 23 | 15 | 8 | .652 |
5 | 17 | 10 | 7 | .588 |
6 | 10 | 9 | 1 | .900 |
7 | 12 | 10 | 2 | .833 |
8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.000 |
9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1.000 |
10 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 |
12 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
The Yankees have been shut out six times and held to two or fewer runs 43 times. That’s basically one-third of their games played at this point. They’re 7-36 (.163) in those games. On the other hand, they’ve scored six or more runs 33 times and are 30-3 (.909) in those games. That’s been the “magic number” this year, so to speak. If the Yankees manage to push across six runs, then in all likelihood they won the game. The MLB average winning percentage when scoring two or fewer runs and six or more runs is .144 and .874, respectively, so the Yankees are above-average at both.
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