Time for another series against an AL East team. This will be the Yankees’ eighth series of the season and their sixth against a division rival. The only two non-AL East series were in the Detroit and the Subway Series last weekend. The Yankees are in Boston for three games against the Red Sox this weekend.
What Have The Red Sox Done Lately?
The Red Sox just took two of three from the Blue Jays at home, and it was their first series win in two weeks. Overall, Boston is 12-10 with a -10 run differential this season and a game back of the Yankees (13-9, +26 run differential) for first place in the AL East. It’s way too early to worry about that though.
Offense & Defense
As expected, the Red Sox have been one of the best offensive teams in baseball so far this season, averaging 5.14 runs per game. They only have a team 98 wRC+ though, mostly because their power hasn’t really shown up yet. They are currently without OF Shane Victorino (hamstring) and C Christian Vazquez (Tommy John surgery), neither of whom will return this series.
Manager John Farrell’s new-look middle of the lineup is anchored by OF Hanley Ramirez (165 wRC+), who already has ten homers on the season. OF Mookie Betts (84 wRC+) and 1B Mike Napoli (49 wRC+) are off to slow starts and DH David Ortiz (109 wRC+) hasn’t really gotten hot yet. 2B Dustin Pedroia (133 wRC+) and 3B Pablo Sandoval (136 wRC+) have fared well in the early going.
UTIL Brock Holt (174 wRC+) is the world’s most annoyingly productive utility player. OF Daniel Nava (7 wRC+), SS Xander Bogaerts (94 wRC+), C Ryan Hanigan (91 wRC+), and UTIL Allen Craig (-12 wRC+!) have been below-average thus far, in some cases substantially so. C Sandy Leon is the rarely used backup catcher. That Pedroia-Ortiz-Hanley-Sandoval middle of the order is dangerous. The rest of the lineup is navigable.
Defensively, the Red Sox seem to be either really good or really bad at each position. Hanigan, Pedroia, and Sandoval are excellent while Hanley and Nava are disasters. Obviously he’s new to the position, but man, Ramirez is as bad an outfielder as I’ve ever seen. Hit it to left field. Betts is good in center despite his inexperience thanks mostly to his athleticism. Bogaerts is error-prone at short and Napoli’s fine at first.
Pitching Matchups
Friday: LHP CC Sabathia (Career vs. BOS) vs. RHP Justin Masterson (Career vs. NYY)
The Red Sox rotation has been really, really bad. Even worse than expected (MLB worst 5.75 ERA). Masterson, 30, has a 5.16 ERA (3.57 FIP) and okay at best peripheral stats (20.0 K%, 9.0 BB%, 54.5 GB%, 0.40 HR/9) in four starts and 22.2 innings. As always, he has an extreme platoon split, holding righties to a .266 wOBA and lefties to a .347 wOBA. Joe Girardi has to load the lineup with lefties against Masterson, even if it means sitting Alex Rodriguez in favor of Garrett Jones. Masterson’s trademark sinker has lost a ton of velocity the last few years — the pitch averaged 91.7 mph in 2012, 91.1 mph in 2013, 88.5 mph in 2014, and now 86.5 mph in 2015. Yikes. He backs it up with an upper-70s slider he throws nearly 40% of the time nowadays. Masterson doesn’t have a changeup to speak of and he did not face the Yankees the last time these two teams met.
Saturday: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (Career vs. BOS) vs. LHP Wade Miley (Career vs. NYY)
Miley is a big reason Boston has such a poor rotation ERA. The 28-year-old has an 8.62 ERA (4.83 FIP) with more walks (14.9%) than strikeouts (13.5%) in four starts and 15.2 innings. His ground ball rate (43.4%) is a bit below-average and at some point his homer rate (0.57 HR/9) figures to climb in Fenway Park. Miley has a reverse platoon split so far this year (.419 vs. 339 wOBA in favor of lefties) but that’s a sample size issue and not in line with the rest of his career. Low-90s two and four-seamers are Miley’s main offerings, which he uses to set up mid-80s sliders and low-80s changeups. He tends to throw the two-seamer more than the four-seamer. The Yankees saw Miley at Yankee Stadium a few weeks ago and scored two runs in 5.1 innings against him.
Sunday: RHP Adam Warren (Career vs. BOS) vs. RHP Joe Kelly (Career vs. NYY)
Kelly, 26, has probably been the Red Sox’s most consistent pitcher so far this year. He has a 4.94 ERA (3.60 FIP) in four starts and 23.2 innings with a great strikeout rate (28.9%) and below-average walk (8.3%), grounder (42.4%), and homer (1.14 HR/9) numbers. Righties (.366 wOBA) have hit him much harder than lefties (.173 wOBA) and that’s a classic early-season sample size issue. Kelly has a big fastball, sitting in the mid-to-upper-90s with his two and four-seamers, though his mid-80s slider and mid-80s changeup lag. It’s no surprise he throws a fastball more than 70% of the time. Kelly held the Yankees to one hit and one run in seven innings earlier this month.
Bullpen Status
Like the Yankees, the Red Sox had an off-day yesterday, so their bullpen is fresh. Closer RHP Koji Uehara (1.75 FIP) either dominates or blows up spectacularly. There’s no middle ground and it’s been going on since last year. RHP Junichi Tazawa (3.83 FIP) is the primary setup man and probably the only other reliever Farrell truly trusts at this point. As bad as the rotation has been, the bullpen has a 4.03 ERA, which is also one of the worst marks in baseball.
The rest of Boston’s eight-man bullpen includes LHP Robbie Ross (5.53 FIP), LHP Craig Breslow (4.17 FIP), LHP Tommy Layne (2.74 FIP), RHP Edward Mujica (6.77 FIP), Alexi Ogando (3.60 FIP), and RHP Dalier Hinojosa. Hinojosa was just called up and his next appearance will be his MLB debut. Expect to see a lot of Ross, Breslow, and Layne this weekend. Teams know the Yankees are vulnerable against southpaws. Head over to our Bullpen Workload page for the status of the New York bullpen, then head over to Over The Monster for the latest and greatest on the Red Sox.
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