Got a dozen questions for you this week and some of them have long answers too. Use the “For The Mailbag” form in the sidebar to send us anything throughout the week.
Many asked: What about Cole Hamels?
So this was inevitable after Masahiro Tanaka’s wrist/forearm injury. Lots and lots of people asked about trading for Hamels. As I’ve said several times in recent months, the 31-year-old Hamels is a bonafide ace with a favorable contract — he makes $23.5M per year but is only signed through 2018, so you’re not stuck with him into his late-30s — who would be a multi-win upgrade for any team, including the Yankees. He’s a significant difference-maker.
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. recently told Bob Nightengale the Phillies are willing to eat some of the money owed to Hamels to facilitate a trade as long as they get higher quality players in return. As far as I’m concerned, that’s irrelevant to the Yankees. They should be willing to take on the entire contract to keep the prospect package down. Flex those financial muscles, baby. Use them to get the ace and keep the prospects.
The Phillies are reportedly holding out for top prospects and I totally get it. Hamels is by far their best trade chip and this deal will be an important part of their rebuild. The team isn’t poor, they’re not desperate to get rid of the contract, so they want top prospects. I’d have zero trouble including Luis Severino or Aaron Judge in a trade for Hamels. Including both would be tough to swallow but it shouldn’t be off the table. Ultimately I think it’ll take three or four prospects, at least two of whom are very, very good.
As I said the other day, the Yankees are not the type of team to rush out and make a knee-jerk trade in response to Tanaka’s injury. That said, Hamels is the type of pitcher every team tries to add at any time, regardless of what’s going on elsewhere with the roster. If even if Tanaka was perfectly healthy it would make sense to pursue Hamels. I don’t think the Yankees will trade for Hamels — I expect another club (Dodgers? Red Sox?) to eventually step in and make an offer New York can’t beat — but if it’s doable, yes, bring him aboard.
Travis asks: I’m a Brett Gardner fan, but with a large group of outfielders in AAA/AA becoming more and more major league ready (ie: Ramon Flores, Tyler Austin, Slade Heathcott, Mason Williams, Aaron Judge, Jake Cave), will/should the Yankees look into trade partners after the 2015 season? Keeping in mind that Gardner has been one of the most productive Yankees in the last 3-4 years.
Sure. I don’t think they should actively shop him, but they should certainly listen to offers. It would not only pave the way for a young outfielder, it would also save some money and allow the Yankees to get pieces to plug another hole on the roster. If they could get, say, a young middle infielder and a pitcher for Gardner, wouldn’t they have to consider it? As good as Gardner is, the Yankees have the same exact player in Jacoby Ellsbury. Freeing up an outfield spot would give them a chance to add a player with more offensive ability, especially in what would be the later years of Gardner’s contract. I love Gardner, but the Yankees have a lot of young outfielders and may be able to use him to improve the team elsewhere. Trading him can’t be off the table, right?
Chris asks: Do you think CC Sabathia’s declining arm speed has hurt his slider more than his fastball? It used to be his best pitch and now it’s loopy like a slurve and hittable.
Yes, I think that’s very possible. Sabathia’s slider was once one of the best in the game, among baseball’s elite pitches, but its swing-and-miss rate has fallen from roughly 22% when he first to joined the Yankees to 13% or so since the start of 2013. Also, opponents have been hitting it harder and harder each year. Here is the SLG against CC’s slider, via Brooks Baseball:
Fastball velocity gets the most attention but Sabathia’s declining arm strength hurts all his pitches, including his slider and changeup. That same is true for every pitcher as they get older. Pitches will be less effective when you can’t throw them the way you did at your peak. Sabathia seems to lack a go-to pitch these days — his changeup was excellent in his start against the Tigers, for what it’s worth — and unless the Yankees can somehow reverse the pitcher aging process, I’m not sure CC will ever have one of those pitches again.
Asher asks: Who are your “Franchise Four?”
MLB is doing this “Franchise Four” thing, where fans vote for the four “most impactful players who best represent the history of each franchise.” Here’s the ballot and here are the eight candidates for the Yankees:My four would be Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, and Joe DiMaggio. The best player ever, the best first baseman ever, the best switch-hitter ever, and the owner of the longest hitting streak in MLB history. All no-doubt Hall of Famers. The only change I would even consider is Derek Jeter over DiMaggio. I love Mariano Rivera, but I can’t consider a reliever to be one of the four most “impact” players in the history of this franchise. I’m certain my “backup” foursome of Jeter, Rivera, Whitey Ford, and Yogi Berra is better than the Franchise Four of several other teams. All those guys are Hall of Famers too.
Sam asks: I know the stats say the Yankees are horrible at the infield shift, But what about outfield positioning? Are they just as bad? My eyes tell me they take a lot of hits away out there, but when I look at advanced stats Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury don’t rate very well.
The MLB average BABIP on fly balls and line drives this year are .072 and .617 , respectively. The Yankees are at .065 and .598, respectively, so they’re a touch better than the rest of the league despite Carlos Beltran having the range of a sunflower blowing in the wind. BABIP on fly balls and line drives isn’t a great way to measure outfield positioning, but until people smarter than me start breaking down StatCast data, this is the best we have.
Anecdotally, the Yankees tend to shade Ellsbury toward right field and Gardner toward left-center to help cover for Beltran. Ever notice how they always make great running/sliding catches going to their left but not so much to their right? That’s because they’re already shaded towards right field to help Beltran. Defensive stats for Yankees’ outfielders always seem to be wonky — they say they’ve never had a good defensive center fielder in a year when Gardner was playing left, and, uh, no, look at Ellsbury last season — and I trust them less and less with each passing year. I’m greatly looking forward to the StatCast revolution.
Dan asks: If an MLB team were to go to a six man rotation, would those six starters be able to throw 115 pitches instead of 100 and still get a health benefit? Considering that’s what they do in Japan and are apparently healthier.
In theory, yes, pitchers would be able to throw more pitches in a six-man rotation than they would in a five-man rotation. But, as I’ve been saying for years now, everything in baseball is trending towards using pitchers less and less. My guess is a six-man rotation would result in no substantial change in the average number of pitches per start. Managers might be more willing to let a guy get up to 115-120 pitches on occasion if he’s cruising, but I don’t think it would be an every start thing. Baseball keeps using pitchers less and less. I don’t think it’ll be too long (within ten years?) before a six-man rotation is pretty standard around MLB.
Luke asks: It seems like the Yankees are going to great lengths to limit the number of innings their starters are pitching, using a 6th starter for a spot start and taking guys out with under 100 pitches all the time. Do you think this is something they’ve been forced into because of all the injury concerns in the rotation, or is this a glimpse of the pitching staff of the future?
Both! The Yankees came into the season with several starters who had injury concerns and they’re trying to do all they can to keep these guys healthy. It’s completely understandable why they’ve taken it easy on these guys early this season. (Of course, Tanaka got hurt anyway.) But, as I just said, everything in baseball says teams are using pitchers less and less. My guess is we’ll see fewer 100+ pitch starts throughout baseball going forward — the Yankees have only had three 100+ pitch starts in 22 games this year (one each by Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Pineda, and Adam Warren) — and eventually a six-man rotation will become the norm as well.
William asks: Rotation depth past the number six starter gets talked about a lot. We know Chase Whitley is the number 6, or at least I hope so considering he’s getting a spot start. Who would you rank from 7-10 after Whitley in order of who would come up next (ignoring pitching issues like starting in AAA on Monday so unavailable Tuesday for spot start)?
Right now the next starter in line to be called up is Bryan Mitchell, who’s in the Triple-A rotation, and the next guy after that might be Esmil Rogers. I think the Yankees would pull Rogers out of the bullpen and make him a starter before turning to another Triple-A option like Matt Tracy, Kyle Davies, or Jaron Long. One of those guys might get the call to be the long man in the case, but I think Rogers is ahead of them on the rotation depth chart. If they need another starter beyond Mitchell and Rogers … yikes. Let’s hope Chris Capuano and Ivan Nova come back soon, mmmkay?
Mike asks: In your opinion, what would be the best way for the Yankees to handle Luis Severino? What lessons have we learned about how to handle top arms?
That learning on the fly at the MLB level is hard and the Yankees should try to reduce that as much as possible. Severino needs to improve his breaking ball first and foremost. The Yankees shouldn’t call him up as a fastball/changeup pitcher with a show-me slider and expect instant results. He just turned 21, remember, and like it or not, he’s not some kind of pitching prodigy like Felix Hernandez or Jose Fernandez, the type of guy who has it all figured out at a young age and is ready to dominate big leaguers now. I think patience is the key. Severino has some very obvious things to work on — command and delivery are the big ones in addition to the breaking ball — and he should be given lots of time to work on them in the minors, where results don’t matter. Get as much development done in non-competitive environments as possible, basically. If that means Severino doesn’t make his MLB debut until the second half of next season, so be it.
JonS asks: How many players have thrown exactly ONE pitch for the Yankees?
Pitch count data at Baseball-Reference only goes back to 2000, so I can’t give a complete answer. I’m sure someone at some point from 1913-99 threw exactly one pitch for the Yankees, then never pitched for them again. No player has thrown just one pitch for the Yankees since 2000 though. Here’s the fewest pitches thrown as a Yankee since the turn of the century (via B-Ref):
Rk | Player | Pit | G | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Alberto Gonzalez | 5 | 1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.05 |
2 | Dewayne Wise | 7 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.10 |
3 | Steve Garrison | 9 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.03 |
4 | Mike Zagurski | 10 | 1 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 54.00 | 12.05 |
5 | Dean Anna | 17 | 1 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18.00 | 3.13 |
6 | Wade LeBlanc | 20 | 1 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 18.00 | 9.13 |
7 | Nick Swisher | 22 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | 4.10 |
8 | Sam Marsonek | 23 | 1 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 3.05 |
9 | David Aardsma | 24 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9.00 | 17.10 |
10 | Jeff Francis | 27 | 2 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5.40 | 9.73 |
Four of those guys (Gonzalez, Wise, Anna, Swisher) are position players, so Garrison has the distinction of throwing the fewest pitches as a Yankee this century among actual pitchers. The team claimed Garrison off waivers from the Padres in 2010 and that one game in pinstripes is the only MLB game he’s ever appeared in. He’s only 28 though and is currently pitching in an independent league. Still time to make it back.
Bob asks: Can you list the Yankee players whose contracts will end in 2015, 2016, and 2017?
Sure, but you can find this information at any time at Cot’s Baseball Contracts, you don’t have to ask me. Here’s a real quick rundown:
- Free agent after 2015: Capuano, Stephen Drew, Garrett Jones, Chris Young, Brendan Ryan (if he declines his player option … lol)
- Free agent after 2016: Rogers, Nova, Beltran, Mark Teixeira, Ryan (if he picks up his player option), Sabathia (if his option doesn’t vest)
- Free agent after 2017: Eovaldi, Pineda, David Carpenter, Alex Rodriguez, Sabathia (if his option vests)
The Yankees only have about $17.5M coming off the books after the season, assuming Ryan picks up his no-brainer $1M player option. Most of that money is going to go right to arbitration raises for Nova, Eovaldi, and Pineda. The big contracts don’t start coming off the books until after next season.
Tom asks: Why can’t money hungry MLB players honorably retire when they are no longer an asset to their team, instead of hanging around until the end of their contract? (I’m thinking about CC and Beltran)
Rant time: The only reason players are called “money hungry” is because fans have no idea how much the owners make. If anything, players are underpaid. MLB is setting a new revenue record every year yet the players are getting a smaller piece of the pie — as Nathaniel Grow wrote last month, players were getting 56% of revenue in 2002 but now it’s only 40%. The players generate the revenue. They’re the reason the sport exists and they deserve more money. A player declined at the end of a big money contract? Tough. No one complained when he was playing for a fraction of his market value early in his career. Honorably retire? Get real. How about owners honor their side of the contract and not try to weasel out of it like the Angels and Josh Hamilton or this A-Rod home run milestone bonus nonsense. I hope Sabathia and Beltran get every penny they’re owed. Teams are not victims. They’re more “money hungry” than the players will ever be.
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