I’ve got 13 questions in the mailbag this week. If your question didn’t make the cut, don’t be mad, we get a ton of questions each week and a lot of good ones get left on the cutting room floor.
Guy asks: How does Ivan Nova for Justin Turner sound? Could be an interesting idea.
I like the idea but I don’t think the Dodgers would do it no matter how badly they need pitching. Turner has been unreal — he’s hitting .324/.395/.582 (174 wRC+) this season and has a 163 wRC+ since the start of last season. Only Paul Goldschmidt (172 wRC+) and Mike Trout (166 wRC+) have been more productive during that time. Turner told Eno Sarris he made some approach changes two years ago after working with ex-Mets teammate Marlon Byrd, who revived his career by basically swinging as hard as possible all the time. Turner’s done the same. He’d look great at second base for the Yankees. I don’t think the Dodgers would trade a year and a half of Turner for a year and a half of Nova though. I know I wouldn’t. Also: lol Mets.
Hank asks: Should there be some concern over Michael Pineda as his innings start to build up? 1st 7 starts: 46 IP, 44 hits, 54K, 3 BB, 2.72 ERA, .656 OPS against; last 7 starts: 38 IP, 52 hits, 33 K, 9 BB, 6.10 ERA, .857 OPS against.
I’d say mild concern, yes. Not outright panic. Pineda has thrown 84.2 innings this year after throwing 76.1 innings last year, so he’s already heading into uncharted workload territory post-shoulder surgery. It is absolutely something to monitor going forward and the Yankees are aware of this. They didn’t skip his start a few weeks ago because they had nothing to better to do. Pineda’s a big, young, strong guy and I don’t think his performance will collapse anytime soon. (I mean really collapse. These latest issues are just a blip right now.) That said, the Yankees still have to watch him going forward. Shoulder surgery is no joke. If Big Mike needs rest, he needs rest.
Stephen asks: Why should we expect James Kaprielian to sign for above-slot? It seems like he landed in the draft right around where his talent level indicates he would. Is it just because Boras?
Aaron Judge was drafted right around where he was expected to go as well, and he still got an overslot bonus. It boils down to two things. One, Scott Boras is a really tough negotiator and Kaprielian hired him to get the most money. Mark Appel, another Boras client, walked away from the Pirates as the eighth overall pick a few years go and went back to school for his senior season because they didn’t meet his asking price. Boras doesn’t bluff. Two, how highly does the team value him? All the scouting publications say Kaprielian was a mid-first rounder but the Yankees could have seen him as a top ten talent. It wouldn’t have been unreasonable at all.
Kaprielian might not get an overslot bonus, but the Yankees have a ton of draft pool money saved ($643,900) and not many places to spend it. Chipola 1B Isiah Gilliam (20th round), New Jersey HS LHP Andrew Miller (34th), and Florida HS SS Deacon Liput (39th) are their only unsigned draft picks who are overslot bonus candidates and they may all be dead set on college. The Yankees probably knew Kaprielian’s asking price going into the draft, remember. Letting him go back to school over a few hundred grand and settling for the compensation pick next year is not a viable strategy to me. Get the prospect now and get him in your system. Talent now is greater than talent later.
Mikey asks: Would you have traded, say, Rob Refsnyder to AZ for Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint?
Yes I would have made that trade. The Diamondbacks, who just signed a $1 billion television contract, basically sold Toussaint to get out from the $10M or so they owe Arroyo. (Toussaint was the 16th overall pick in last year’s draft and No. 61 on Baseball America’s top 100 list before the season.) Refsnyder is probably a better player than Phil Gosselin, the utility infielder the Braves sent to Arizona, but I’d still make that trade. The Yankees should be buying prospects in situations like this whenever possible. They have the money. The problem is trades like this very rarely happen. Fans of the other 28 teams are wondering why their club didn’t pull the trigger on a random infielder for Toussaint and Arroyo trade right now too.
Evan asks: If the White Sox get blown up, who would the Yankees need to give up to acquire Chris Sale? It would have to be much much much more than Johnny Cueto.
Yes. Much much much much more. Sale is arguably the best pitcher in baseball at this very moment after coming into the season as a no worse than a top five pitcher in MLB. He’s a stud. And he’s only owed $50M or so through 2019 when you include his two no-brainer club options. (I could have sworn I remember reading that Sale can void the options if traded, but apparently that’s not the case.) Every single team will make an offer if Sale is made available. A package starts with Judge and Luis Severino and includes at least two more very young players. Dellin Betances and Nathan Eovaldi maybe? I’m not even sure I’d take that four-player package for Sale if I was the ChiSox. He’s so, so good and so, so affordable for years to come.
Matt asks: If CC Sabathia moved to the bullpen, could he be a great LOOGY?
The numbers say yes. Lefties are hitting .193/.202/.256 (.200 wOBA) with a 29.8% strikeout rate against Sabathia this season. (He hasn’t walked a lefty yet!) Righties are hitting .332/.374/.580 (.406 wOBA) against Sabathia and that’s just awful. In theory, he would make a great matchup lefty reliever. We don’t know how he would adjust to a bullpen role or anything like that, but there’s evidence to suggest Sabathia fits best as a left-on-left bullpen guy at this point. But he’s not coming out of the rotation. The Yankees will continue to shoot themselves in the foot and decrease their postseason chances by keeping this version of Sabathia in the rotation because of his contract.
Bob asks: With the Cubs allegedly looking for a cost-controlled but proven starting pitcher, what kind of return could the Yankees expect from the North Siders for Adam Warren?
Is Warren a proven starting pitcher? I think he’s promising but not proven. Anyway, I don’t think the Cubs are looking for Warren types. I think they’re looking for high-end young starters, not mid-to-back-end guys. Warren won’t be a free agent until after the 2018 season and, at the very worst, he’s a solid big league setup man. Maybe he can be more. Warren’s trade value is probably similar to Eovaldi’s this past offseason, no? Maybe slightly less because Eovaldi’s younger and shown he can hold up as a starter over a full season. Warren shouldn’t untouchable but I don’t think trading him for okay-ish prospects makes sense right now either.
Paul asks: Do undrafted free agents have any impact on draft pools? Like, does signing an undrafted FA take money out of the available pool?
They’re treated like players drafted after the tenth round. If they sign for $100,000 or less, it has no impact on the draft pool. If they sign for more than $100,000, the excess is applied to the draft pool. So if an undrafted free agent gets a $150,000 bonus, the extra $50,000 counts against the draft pool. It’s not often unsigned free agents get big bonuses though. The only instance I can remember is Daniel Aldrich a few years ago, who the Yankees inked for $150,000. He played in 39 minor league games before being released.
Mike in EV asks: Now that Sergio Santos is on the 60-day DL, are the Yankees required to put him on the 40-man roster at the end of the season and keep him there through the offseason? Given all of the young players added to the 40-man roster so far this season, it appears the Yankees are headed for quite the roster crunch in the offseason.
No, the Yankees don’t have to keep Santos on the 40-man roster all offseason. There is no DL in the winter — he’ll be activated after the World Series and the Yankees can release him at that point (if they want). They’re not obligated to keep him on the 40-man all winter just because he’s hurt. The Braves cut ties with Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy while they were rehabbing from Tommy John surgery last winter, remember.
Now, if the Yankees do cut Santos after the season, they do still have to provide him with a place to do his rehab work until he signs with a new team. That’s in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. Santos doesn’t need to take them up on the offer, he can go and rehab on his own if he wants, but the Yankees would have to give him access to their facilities (in Tampa, I assume) even after releasing him. The player doesn’t get hung out to dry.
Dylan asks: You mentioned Judge as starting RF next year as a possibility … if that’s the plan, would he still be held in AAA for 10 games a la the Cubs & Kris Bryant? Or do those service time issues not apply?
Oh they still apply, for sure. It only takes 11-12 days to delay free agency and about three months to delay Super Two status. I don’t love the idea of simply handing Judge the right field job next year — I think the Yankees would do it, I’m just saying I don’t love the idea — because I’m not a fan of throwing non-elite prospects to the wolves. (Judge is very good but not elite!) If they keep him down for a few weeks to delay free agency, great. That’s the system and teams would be foolish not to exploit it. I don’t think the Yankees would hesitate to play Judge just to ensure they manipulate his service time if they feel he’s the best option though.
Ethan asks: Do you think defensive flexibility, a la Brock Holt or Ben Zobrist, is a market inefficiency/currently undervalued skill?
I actually think it might be overvalued. Martin Prado, for example. He’s an average hitter and a below-average fielder. Being able to play a bunch of positions doesn’t increase his value much if at all. Prado’s still an average hitter and a below-average defender, he can just play below-average defense at different positions. Flexibility is wonderful but guys like Holt and Zobrist are an exception because they can not only play a lot of positions, but play them well and produce at the plate. Most versatile guys either aren’t that good defensively or can’t hit, so yeah, they can play all over the place, but that just means they can stink at multiple positions instead of one. Holt and Zobrist are big time outliers. They’re valuable if you have them. Trying to use someone like, say, Jose Pirela in that role usually turns out bad.
Mark asks: Is there a statistic that applies the “league average bullpen” to inherited runners. It seems that pitchers are penalized or rewarded depending on the quality of the reliever who is called in to clean up the mess they leave behind.
I haven’t seen anything that adjusts for inherited runners — that would be a little complicated, because you’d have to consider the base/out situation (easier to strand a runner on first with two outs than a runner on third with no outs, etc.) — and things like that. For some reason I know Pineda had brutal inherited runner luck during his season with the Mariners. Seattle’s bullpen allowed 72% (!) of the inherited runners he left on base to score that year. That’s more than double the MLB average.
Anyway, inherited runners have scored 29% of the time league-wide this season. The Giants are the best at only 13% and the Phillies are the worst at 43%. The Yankees are tied with four other teams for seventh worst at 34%. Here are how the core relievers have done this season at stranding inherited runners, via Baseball Reference:
Name | IP | G | IR | IS | IS% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dellin Betances | 36.0 | 32 | 20 | 8 | 40% |
David Carpenter | 18.2 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 44% |
Chris Martin (40-man) | 16.0 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 78% |
Andrew Miller (15-day dl)* | 26.1 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 14% |
Esmil Rogers | 33.0 | 18 | 15 | 7 | 47% |
Chasen Shreve* | 29.2 | 25 | 15 | 2 | 13% |
Justin Wilson* | 25.2 | 33 | 25 | 5 | 20% |
Team Total | 283 | 125 | 42 | 34% |
So the three worst offenders (Carpenter, Martin, Rogers) are not on the roster right now, partly because they stunk at stranding runners. Betances has actually been crummy overall in his department but a big chunk of the damage came in that near meltdown against the Angels a few weeks ago. You remember that, right? Rogers took over an 8-1 game in the ninth inning and before you knew it, it was 8-7 with the tying run on third. Betances allowed all three inherited runners to score that night. Outside of that game Dellin has been exactly league average (29%) at stranding runners, which is still higher than I would have expected.
As for the starters, Sabathia has had the worst inherited runner luck, but it’s a really small sample: four of nine have scored. That’s it. Eovaldi has left the most runners on base (19) and five have scored (26%). Warren has left 14 men on base and three have scored (21%). Pineda has left ten and two have scored. Masahiro Tanaka has handed two inherited runners over to the bullpen all season. Two! (Neither scored.) I haven’t seen anything that adjusts a starters numbers for inherited runners, and I’m not sure who useful it’s be because we aren’t talking about a ton of runners anyway. Inherited runner rates are more useful for relievers for sure.
Liam asks: What’s it like running RAB? Do you have set routine for daily updates like the Bullpen Workload and DotF? Do you plan your analytical pieces ahead of time or just write them as they come to you? I’d love to get some insight on what makes this site tick.
The RAB life is probably not as time-consuming as it seems. I write up DotF during the game each night — it took 15-20 minutes tops in the first half of the season, but now that the short season leagues have started it’s closer to 30 minutes (so many affiliates!) — and I usually write regular features (mailbag, series previews, etc.) a day or two ahead of time, then just go back and fill in the stats. Those are easy enough, usually.
Other posts I try to write the bare bones the day before, but that isn’t always possible if there’s some breaking news that needs to be analyzed (trade, major injury, etc.). My usual routine is this: piece together the next day’s posts in the morning, go about the rest of my day, handle the game and DotF at night (updating the Bullpen Workload, Announcer Standings, and Prospect Watch is all part of my game coverage routine), then put the finishing touches on the posts for the next day. Sometimes I have to call an audible and write an entirely new post(s) after the game, but that comes with the territory. I keep a list of post ideas and add to it as things come to me. Some get written immediately, some get written weeks later, some never get written. Riveting stuff, eh?
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