I wouldn’t say this is surprising. While speaking to Andrew Marchand, Brian Cashman seemed to indicate the Yankees are unlikely to sign any high-priced free agents this coming offseason. “Our activity usually (ties) to expiring contracts,” said the GM, who also noted the team is “pretty locked-in” on most players, contractually speaking.
The club’s last two huge offseasons (2008-09 and 2013-14) were set up by expiring contracts. The Yankees shed Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, and Mike Mussina, among others, following the 2008 season. After 2013 it was Curtis Granderson, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, and Phil Hughes who were sent packing. (Alex Rodriguez was suspended as well.)
The Yankees have very little money coming off the books following this season. One-year contract guys Stephen Drew ($5M), Chris Capuano ($5M), Garrett Jones ($5M), and Chris Young ($2.5M) will all become free agents. That’s it. And just about all of that money will be redirected to arbitration raises for Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Ivan Nova, and Didi Gregorius, most notably.
The big money contracts start expiring following next season. Mark Teixeira and Carlos Beltran will be off the books following the 2016 season, then A-Rod will be gone after 2017 and maybe Masahiro Tanaka as well, should be opt out of his contract. CC Sabathia’s deal will be up after either 2016 or 2017 depending on the health of his shoulder. We’re starting to see the light at the end of some of these long-term contract tunnels.
Hal Steinbrenner has said he plans to get under the luxury tax threshold at some point in the future — the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires after 2016, and I have to think the threshold will increase then, likely over $200M — and big money free agents aren’t exactly conducive to getting under the luxury tax tax. The Yankees have emphasized youth in a big way this year and I expect that to continue.
Now, that said, that doesn’t mean the Yankees absolutely will not sign big money free agents in the coming years either. They were willing to take on Craig Kimbrel’s contract at the trade deadline, so increasing payroll is not out of the question. I could definitely see them making a play for Jason Heyward this winter simply because he’s still so young and you’re getting so many peak years. (He turned 26 last month.) It’s the big money deals for guys at or over 30 that end up being the albatrosses.
Here are the 2015-16 and 2016-17 free agent classes. That 2016-17 class looks very weak right now. (Obviously a lot can and will change between now and then.) In addition to Heyward, there are two bonafide aces set to hit the market this winter (David Price and Johnny Cueto), plus plenty of quality second tier options. From the looks of things at this moment, this winter is the one to spend, not next winter.
Anyway, Cashman is right about the Yankees being locked in at many positions. They have six starting pitchers under contractual control next year (Pineda, Eovaldi, Nova, Sabathia, Tanaka, Luis Severino) and second base is the only open position. Not a ton of flexibility barring a involving a regular trade, which is always possible. It just seems really unlikely. Some of those players are immovable.
“We do have some square pegs that will fit in some square holes when you look at 2017,” said Cashman. “That’s a long way off. We do have some placeholders that potentially are going to be in place, if that is the direction we choose. That’s a good thing.”
Like last offseason, this offseason seems like it could be focused on improving through trades and clearing more spots for young players. There’s no obvious starting spot for Greg Bird in 2016 because of Beltran, Teixeira, and A-Rod, for example. Let’s worry about this when the time comes though. Right now the postseason race and the AL East title is the priority. We’ll have an entire winter to rosterbate.
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