We’ve got 16 questions this week, which might be a mailbag record. The RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com email address is where you can send us questions.
Eric asks: Since Kaprielian is on the roster and was invited to spring does that mean he will see action in any games, or was this more so the big league staff could work with him/see him first hand?
Yeah, we should see James Kaprielian pitch in some Grapefruit League games. Luis Severino appeared in two games and threw 2.2 innings with the big league team last spring before being reassigned to minor league camp, and Kaprielian figures to be on a similar plan this year. Last year the Phillies had 2014 first rounder Aaron Nola throw three innings in camp, and he was a quick moving college starter like Kaprielian. (Nola was in the big leagues by July.) A handful of innings is pretty standard, so it won’t be much of a look, but it’ll be something.
Mike asks: You mentioned in a post this week that the biggest predictor of future injury is past injury – have there been any studies/examinations of data around injury causation/correlation? Wondering if data such as previous season PA/Innings pitched, previous injury history, SB attempts, etc. would line up with conventional wisdom about injuries?
Jeff Zimmerman has done a ton of research on injuries (mostly pitcher injuries) over the years and I can’t point you to any one specific post or series of posts. The only things I can recommend are his FanGraphs archive and Hardball Times archive. There’s a lot of posts and they go back years and years. He’s found evidence throwing a lot of breaking balls is bad (curveballs are worse than sliders, apparently), and there’s also strong correlation between high walk rates and injuries. The theory is pitchers with high walk rates have bad mechanics, making them prone to injury. Zimmerman’s work is top notch and it can be overwhelming because there’s so much of it.
Paul asks: Do you think if/when there are 2 teams added, interleague games will go back to being a couple of thematic weeks since they’ll no longer mathematically be required year-long? And how do you think it would impact divisions since there would now be 16 teams/league that 2 8-team divisions might surface?
Interleague play definitely isn’t going anywhere but I do think they’d bunch it together in the span of two or three weeks like they did back in the day, assuming the league expands at some point. Maybe they’ll bunch most of it together and give some high-profile geographic rivalries (Yankees vs. Mets, Dodgers vs. Angels, Giants vs. Angels, Orioles vs. Nationals, etc.) their own weekend later in the season.
I have to think two expansion teams would even the leagues out at 16 teams apiece, and two eight-team divisions would make the playoffs nice and neat too. Top two teams from each division get in, first place plays second place in the LDS, then the LCS features one team from each division. Easy, right? I don’t think MLB is going to want to get rid of the wildcard game though. It’s done very well for the league.
Shaya asks: The Ian Kennedy signing got me thinking out of the 6 pitchers from “The Big Three” and the “Killer B’s” has the most valuable one been Betances, or is a middling SP (IPK, Hughes) more valuable?
Phil Hughes leads the six pitchers in fWAR by a decent margin — he’s at 17.6 fWAR in 1,145.2 innings and Ian Kennedy is at 14.4 fWAR in 1,234.2 innings — and I’d agree he has had the best career of those guys to date. He’s had one year as a great reliever (2009) and a couple years as a good (2010, 2012) to great (2014) starter. Kennedy’s had some solid years too (2010-12). Starters are generally more valuable than relievers, but Dellin Betances is no ordinary reliever, and if he keeps this up, he’s going to go down as the best of the Big Three/Killer Bs pitchers. Dellin is at 5.6 fWAR in 181.2 innings and I’m one of those guys who thinks WAR underrates late-inning relievers by quite a bit.
Will asks: How exactly does dipping under the luxury tax and resetting a team’s tax rate work? Does a team have to begin, end, or play an entire season at a payroll figure below the $189M rate? If the payroll dips below the threshold as contracts expire after the season, could the Yankees spend their way back above that offseason or do they have to play the following season below that mark to qualify for a reset?
The end of season payroll has to be under the $189M threshold, so they have to stay under from Opening Day through Game 162. The expiring contracts at the end of the season don’t factor into the 2016 luxury tax payroll calculation. There’s no way the Yankees can get under the luxury tax this year. They’d have to shed close to $60M in payroll and that’s just not realistic. They should be able to get under in 2017 as long as the threshold rises with the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement. Once they spend a season under the threshold, the luxury tax rate resets, and the Yankees are free to spend whatever they please the following year.
Dan asks: I am definitely a glass half empty Yankees fan. Be honest with us: how bad is Greg Bird’s shoulder surgery? Career derailing? Minor blimp? Somewhere in between?
I don’t think a player can have surgery, miss an entire season, and have the injury qualify as a “minor blip.” Bird had a very serious procedure. Let’s not pretend otherwise. Could it derail his career? I mean, possibly. Any time you’re talking about an injury to a major joint like the shoulder, it’s always possible it won’t ever work the same way again. Bird is not a pitcher but he still needs the shoulder to hit. It’s his front shoulder, his power shoulder, so it’s an important part of his swing. This is definitely somewhere between minor blip and career-threatening, closer to minor blip, I’d say. There’s always a chance the worst case scenario happens. That’s just the way it is.
(Also, I was a glass half empty fan once upon a time. It’s not worth it. I can’t control anything on the field so there’s no point in getting worried or upset. Zen baseball.)
P.J. asks: I’d like to jump ahead to the FA class next winter. We’ve all read over and over this past winter the rumors of Brett Gardner. But in reality wouldn’t moving him next winter be much more likely with a better return? There are a lot of FA outfielders available BUT quantity doesn’t equal quality and the FA outfield class next winter seems to be short on quality.
It’s possible if he has a typical Gardner season in 2016, meaning offense that is roughly 5% or so above league average and defense that is solid if not spectacular. The free agent outfield class is surprisingly strong next offseason — it’s Carlos Gomez, Dexter Fowler, Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus, and Yoenis Cespedes — assuming Bautista doesn’t re-up with the Blue Jays and Cespedes opts out. If that doesn’t happen, the market will be thinner and there could be more interest in Gardner. I don’t know if the Yankees will get a better return — they’d be trading two years of Gardner instead of three, and the extra year of control matters — but they should still be able to drum up interest in him next winter. Their willingness to trade Gardner is going to depend a lot on the development of Aaron Hicks and Aaron Judge.
Dave asks: Ellsbury was recently on Dan Szymborski’s ESPN Insider list of worst contracts; not surprising considering he has 5 years and $110.7M remaining. What kind of contact would he have gotten if he had been a free agent at the start of this offseason? He turned 32 last September.
That’s a good question. No way would he get five years and $110.7M after the season he had. Cespedes and Justin Upton didn’t sign until January, and I have to think Jacoby Ellsbury would have been right there waiting for a contract with them. I wonder if he would have been one of those guys who got hung out to dry by the qualifying offer, like Fowler and Ian Desmond. Two years ago I thought a five-year contract worth $85M or so was appropriate for Ellsbury. Knock two years off that and it’s three years and $51M. Would Ellsbury have gotten that this offseason? Cespedes had that monster 2015 season and only got three years and $75M.
Andrew asks: Is it possible to let Tex walk for a year? Assuming he gets a 1 or 2 year contract from another team, could he be signed in a DH role for his 38/39 year seasons if he shows he can still produce?
Of course. When he said he wanted to play until he was 40, Mark Teixeira specifically mentioned spending the last few seasons of his career as a DH, and we know he loves New York, so I’m sure he’d be open to it. The only issue is if he spends 2017 (and possibly 2018 as well) with another team, he might fall in love with that club and that city even more than he loves New York. Once Alex Rodriguez is off the books, I think the Yankees are going to want to rotate players in and out of the DH spot, so I’m not sure bringing Teixeira back at that point of his career is realistic. I’d be open to it. I don’t think the Yankees would.
Frank asks: Let’s dream for a minute and visualize Kaprielian improving his command dramatically. Considering the quality of his stuff, what is the absolute ceiling he can achieve in your opinion?
Well, if he improves his command considerably, Kaprielian has an ace ceiling. He added velocity last year and is now more 93-96 mph rather than 88-91 mph, and he has three average or better offspeed pitches, including a wipeout slider. Kaprielian has stuff, and if he can improve to the point where he has above-average command, then forget it. He’s going to be awesome, possibly a top 20 pitcher in MLB. With even average command he should be very good, and there’s nothing wrong with very good.
Michael asks: Cashman has said that Ackley would be the backup 1B. Do you see anyone else being a backup 1B, such as a right handed hitter, in case Ackley would have to play OF (or IF)?
I guess it depends how that last bench spot shakes out. If Starlin Castro can’t hack it at third base and the Yankees need to carry a true backup third baseman, that guy (Donovan Solano? Deibinson Romero?) could also see some action at first base. Gary Sanchez has some first base experience in winter ball but not much. I think the Yankees would sooner put Brian McCann at first and Sanchez behind the plate in that situation. I don’t believe a backup backup first baseman who hits right-handed is much of a priority. They have Teixeira and Dustin Ackley. That’s enough. If someone gets hurt, they’ll deal with it when the time comes. That’s going to be bad news either way.
Edward asks: Given that Ivan Nova has had good periods, though he’s more often been bad, how good of a season would he have to have for you to consider him for a new deal?
Ideally Nova would pitch his way into qualifying offer territory and decline it so he can go out and get Ian Kennedy money. As for bringing him back, I think something like a 3.70 ERA (4.00 FIP) in a good 150 innings would do the trick. That’s basically his 2011 season. If Nova stays healthy, shows good stuff, and gets decent enough results, I think the Yankees might consider bringing him back given their need for pitching beyond 2017. Hughes signed a three-year deal worth $24M with the Twins a few years back. Would that be a reasonable contract for Nova? It might be. Nova needs to have a good season first. If he’s mediocre and inconsistent again, then he’s a goner.
Joe asks: What is your take on Joel Sherman’s list of possible trade candidates or roster cuts: “I suspect their scouts will be armed with a list of likely available guys who are out of options or have no real roles on their current teams — players such as Philadelphia’s Cody Asche, Milwaukee’s Hernan Perez, Cleveland’s Giovanny Urshela, Miami’s Derek Dietrich, Oakland’s Danny Valencia and Philadelphia’s Andrew Blanco.”
Dietrich and Valencia are by far the best of the bunch and there’s no reason to think they’ll be available. Dietrich had a 119 wRC+ last season and is the Marlins main bench guy who backs up everywhere. Valencia is even better; he had a 135 wRC+ last year and is the A’s starting third baseman. Andres (not Andrew) Blanco had an out of nowhere 136 wRC+ in 2015 — he’s never hit like that before — and going after him now is the definition of buying high. I feel he’s destined to disappoint whoever trades for him. Urshela isn’t out of options; the Indians added him to the 40-man roster just an offseason ago. They’re probably going to keep him for 2017 and beyond even after signing Juan Uribe. Assuming Dietrich and Valencia are off limits, none of these guys excite me much. They’d be useful and fill a roster hole, sure. I don’t think there are any hidden gems. Just warm bodies.
John asks: The top prospects seem to be mostly from the 2015 draft and the 2014-15 international signing spree. What would you attribute that to: the farm just plainly not producing for a while or the scouting overhaul that took place a few years ago?
I don’t think that’s the case at all. I had five 2015 draftees (Kaprielian, Drew Finley, Jeff Degano, Kyle Holder, Chance Adams) and two 2014-15 international signees (Wilkerman Garcia, Hoy Jun Park) in my Top 30 Prospects List. Baseball America had five 2015 draftees (Kaprielian, Finley, Holder, Degano, Jhalan Jackson) and two 2014-15 IFAs (Wilkerman, Park) in their Yankees top 30 in the 2016 Prospect Handbook. MLB.com went a little overboard with seven 2015 draftees (Kaprielian, Finley, Degano, Holder, Adams, Donny Sands, Trey Amburgey) in their top 30, though they only had one 2014-15 IFA (Wilkerman). That seems like a normal amount of recent acquisitions to me. Most of New York’s very best prospects — Sanchez, Judge, Jorge Mateo, Ian Clarkin, etc. — were all acquired other years. The 2014-15 IFA class is going to dominate the top 30 for the next few seasons, though I do also think the Yankees have done a very good job in the middle rounds of the draft recently. They’re digging up quality under the radar guys like Jackson and Adams and Sands and Amburgey.
Julian asks: I know this isn’t Yankee’s related, but the Orioles must really be scaring away free agents these days, no? Between their constant issues over physicals and now Dexter Fowler backing off, they have to be a destination of last resort (at least in terms of Major league deals) for free agents it would seem.
Yeah I can’t imagine too many free agents are eager to sign with the Orioles given the medical shenanigans. Chris Davis and Darren O’Day had been there already and knew the deal, and they were comfortable going back. But if you were coming from another team, knowing they’re such sticklers with the medicals, wouldn’t you pause a bit? Yovani Gallardo didn’t sign with the O’s because he thought it was a good fit. He signed with the O’s because they were the only team willing to pay him late in the offseason. Same thing with Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez two years ago. It does seem like they’re becoming something of a last resort team for a lot of free agents.
Chip asks: Give me 5 prospects not on the Yankees top 30 who you think will be on there by midseason and the 5 who are going to come off either because they’ve played badly or graduated to the majors?
Would it be too much of a cop out if I just linked to my Not Top 30 Prospects List for the five guys I think will be on the list come midseason? That’s kinda why I put that post together each year. We can include Estevan Florial in that group since he’s the new hotness. As for five who drop off the list, I’ll say Sanchez and Jacob Lindgren graduate to MLB, and Slade Heathcott (injury), Leonardo Molina (performance), and Abi Avelino (performance) are most at risk for dropping off for not good reasons.
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