Fifteen questions in the mailbag this week. As always, use the RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com email address to send us anything throughout the week. Mailbag questions, comments, links, whatever.
Jacob asks: How similar is Rob Refsnyder to Brett Gardner offensively? Would it make sense to put Ref in left if Gardy is traded or Hicks?
Refsnyder and Gardner might actually be pretty comparable offensively, at least on a rate basis. Refsnyder won’t be the same kind of weapon on the bases — even though he’s no longer a 40+ steal guy, Gardner still runs well and adds value with his legs — but the slash lines could be similar. Check out their 2016 ZiPS projections:
Gardner: .256/.330/.405 (104 OPS+)
Refsnyder: .248/.318/.395 (98 OPS+)
Refsnyder’s not that far off from Gardner in the eyes of the objective computer algorithm. You’re not getting the same speed though, and you’re definitely not getting the same level of defense either, even with Gardner’s glovework beginning to slip with age.
The Yankees have so many quality young outfielders right now — if not Aaron Hicks, then Slade Heathcott or Ben Gamel, or Aaron Judge, or Mason Williams once healthy — that I don’t see the point in putting Refsnyder in left field full-time. I say try to make him a utility guy who can play second, third, and some corner outfield in a pinch. It seems like Refsnyder would be most valuable in that role, not as a full-time corner outfielder.
Brian asks: Besides the obvious platoon of Hicks/Beltran/Ells/Gardy, is there another platoon you think could develop?
I think one could develop at shortstop, with Starlin Castro playing short and Refsnyder playing second against left-handed pitchers. That would depend on a) Refsnyder actually being on the roster, and b) Didi Gregorius struggling against lefties so much that it’s impossible to ignore. Gregorius did hit .308/.368/.397 against lefties in the second half last season, so if nothing else, that’s a reason not to platoon him. You want Didi to improve against lefties and sitting on the bench is no way to do that.
Aside from shortstop, I suppose we could see some kind of platoon behind the plate as well, assuming Gary Sanchez is on the roster. There’s no sense in platooning Austin Romine or Carlos Corporan. No offense, but they’re not worth the trouble. McCann has actually hit lefties quite well with the Yankees (124 wRC+), though a platoon would put Sanchez is a good position to succeed, and also get McCann off his feet with some regularity. He just turned 32 and the Yankees don’t want him turning into a pumpkin with three years left on his contract.
Dylan asks: Doesn’t a two year deal for Teixeira make total sense right now? Next year he can start at 1B while we learn how Bird will respond to the injury and if he is still a long term solution. The year after, in a perfect world, Bird will slide in to starting at first, while Tex can spell Bird at first, and primarily DH. It seems like a great transition plan to me. What would it take to get it done? Mike Morse-ish? 2 years $16 million? Maybe 2/$20?
Oh come on, Mark Teixeira’s no Mike Morse. Adam LaRoche got two years and $25M last offseason and Teixeira should get at least that if he repeats his 2015 season in 2016. I wouldn’t sign Teixeira right now. Let the season play out and see what happens first. I wouldn’t want to lock myself into the 38-year-old version of Teixeira in 2018 without first seeing what the 36-year-old version in 2016 looks like. Re-signing him should be Plan A if it appears Greg Bird won’t be ready to take over as the starting first baseman next year, and it might take a two-year contract to get it done, but I wouldn’t jump on it just yet. I’m comfortable letting this one play out in a few months.
Anonymous asks: We’ve heard endless much ado about trading Brett Gardner. Is he basically untradeable at the moment (wrist)?
I’ve come to realize no player is truly untradeable these days, but no, Gardner is not untradeable. He’s still a solid player signed to a fair contract, and those guys will always have a market. Gardner’s wrist injury doesn’t seem serious — he’s hitting and going through all the normal drills — and while I’m sure teams would try to use it to drive down the price, I doubt it’s a deal-breaker. I don’t expect the Yankees to trade Gardner during the season anyway. Maybe they’ll try again next offseason should Hicks, Judge, or any of the other Triple-A outfielders really force the issue.
Brad asks: Since the Yanks have young up-the-middle talent under team control for a while, do you think they will give Mateo a shot in CF any time soon? We haven’t had a real CF (Ellsbury is nothing more than a 7 year mistake) since (the perpetually underrated and more HOF-worthy than the voters gave him credit for) Bernie Williams.
Yes to center field, no to anytime soon. There’s no reason to make that move until it’s absolutely clear shortstop (and second base) is locked up at the MLB level long-term. Jorge Mateo’s a really good defender at short, and while I’m sure he’d be a fantastic center fielder thanks to his speed, you’d hate to push aside those shortstop defense skills too soon. He’s only 20 and he’s still in Single-A ball. I say keep him at shortstop until a position change is truly necessary. I do think Mateo could handle center defensively though. This is more of a “he’s more valuable at short” situation than a “he can’t play center” situation.
Chris asks: There’s been a lot of proposed ideas for the new CBA to eliminate or change the qualifying offer. And some have just as many questions as answers, but how about this: push the picks back to the second round. Teams would be less wary of giving up a second rounder, while teams offering the QO wouldn’t be quite as willing to do so for a second round pick. Less draft pool money is lost for the signing team as well but there is certainly still value in a second round pick. What do you think?
I like the idea. I actually mentioned it as a possible fix in a CBS post I wrote a few weeks ago. The team that loses the free agent would still get the same supplemental first round pick, but the signing team would only give up their second rounder, not their first. Teams would be far more willing to give up a second rounder (and the associated draft pool money) to sign a qualified free agent, even middling ones like Ian Desmond and Ian Kennedy.
I do wonder if this plan would be viewed as not enough of a punishment for the signing team, however. The signing team would get the big free agent and still have access to the top talent in the draft. That’s the whole point of the free agent compensation system, to spread the talent around. In theory, teams would get either the big free agents or the top amateurs, not both. Giving up a second rounder is basically a slap on the wrist. Clubs won’t think twice about losing it.
Andrew asks: Do you have more confidence as a fan heading into this season than last year?
I do, for sure. I was not sold on Gregorius as an everyday shortstop last year, I didn’t expect much from Alex Rodriguez (suspension), Teixeira (terrible second half), or Carlos Beltran (offseason elbow surgery), and I was much more concerned about the health of Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda. Granted, those two are still injury risks, but they each threw 150+ innings in 2015. That’s more than I would have guessed.
This year I’m much more confident in Gregorius, A-Rod, Teixeira, and Beltran being able to produce, and in Tanaka and Pineda being able to stay on the mound. Add in what could be a substantial upgrade at second base, 132 games of Aroldis friggin’ Chapman, plus a full season of Luis Severino, and I’m feeling pretty darn good about the 2016 Yankees. Are they world beaters? Nope. But I think they’re a better team today than they were a year ago.
Paul asks: Even though his days in the field are done, does A-Rod help in coaching someone like Rob Refsnyder at 3b? Or Sir Didi at SS?
Yep. He worked with Gregorius at shortstop last season, and a few days ago Rod told Erik Boland he plans to work with Starlin Castro at third base. I assume he’ll do the same with Refsnyder. Lots and lots of young players have said Rodriguez has helped them over the years. A-Rod’s no saint, that’s very clear, but he’s always had a great reputation for helping teammates, particularly young guys.
Simon asks: Chances are as close to zero as you can possibly get but what do you think it would take to get A-Rod into Monument Park either via plaque or number retirement?
Something huge. The Yankees would need to win the 2016 and 2017 World Series with Rod being the World Series MVP. Something crazy like that. I don’t think there’s any chance the Yankees will put Rodriguez in Monument Park given all the headaches over the years even though he’s unquestionably one of the best players in franchise history. I wouldn’t be surprised if they put No. 13 right back into circulation after he leaves, the same way they gave Scott Sizemore No. 24 right after Robinson Cano left. I think A-Rod deserves a plaque and his number retired. I have zero confidence in it actually happening.
Nicholas asks: I saw on MLBTR that Tejada could be waived by the Mets, should the Yankees be interested in him as a utility infielder? Or is he JAG?
I have no idea what JAG means, but Ruben Tejada is a pretty good backup infielder. He’s managed a wRC+ in the 89-99 range in four of the last five years, and he’s a fine defender at short and second. (His third base experience is limited.) I would greatly prefer Tejada to Pete Kozma or Donovan Solano or any of the other scrap heap infielders the Yankees signed this offseason. I’m not sure who the Mets would carry on the bench instead of Tejada (Eric Campbell? Dilson Herrera?), but if they do waive him, I’d like to see the Yankees pick him up even with the $3M salary. Middle infield depth is good.
Rocco asks: Maybe you know the answer to this: Posting system notwithstanding, is there anything preventing a team from trading a prospect/player and cash to a Japanese team to pry free a player they would not otherwise post? Like, say, a prospect and $20mil for Otani?
The posting system eliminated trades between MLB and NPB teams. It’s all because of Hideki Irabu. The Chiba Lotte Marines traded Irabu to the Padres (for a big pile of cash) and he was upset, so he refused to report. Irabu said he would play for the Yankees, so the Padres flipped him to New York. The transfer agreement between MLB and NPB was revised after the Irabu stuff, so trades aren’t possible anymore. The player has to initiate the transaction between teams in the two leagues now.
Vidhath asks: Regarding Otani’s posting, I thought I read that when he first decided to stay in the NPB instead of coming to the MLB right out of high school, they had a handshake agreement that they would post him whenever he asked. Is that still the case?
That is widely believed to be the case. Shohei Otani wanted to forego the NPB draft and sign with an MLB team out of high school a few years back, but the Nippon Ham Fighters drafted him anyway. He agreed to sign with them and play a few years (giving them a star to replace Yu Darvish) in exchange for the team not standing in his way when he asks to be posted. That’s the rumor, anyway. Who knows if it’s true. Otani’s been very open about his desire to play in MLB. It’s only a matter of time until he’s made available to MLB teams.
Erik asks: Hypothetically, if Shohei Otani were posted as a free agent now at 21 years old, is he not subject to International draft pool limits and exemptions for players 23 and under? Would this apply for KBO players as well? Thanks!
The bonus pools cover amateur players only. Otani and everyone else playing in Japan and Korea are professional players, so they’re not subject to the international bonus pools. Also, Otani would not be a true free agent under the posting system. He’d be free to negotiate with any team during the posting process, but the (Ham) Fighters would still control his rights. Those rights would then be transferred to the signing team. He’d never actually be a free agent, in that no one controlled his rights.
Evan asks: So apparently in-market streaming is going to be available this year but not through mlbtv? Do you have any details on exactly how I go about streaming in market games (is it available for spring training games).
Spring Training games are available on regular old MLB.tv with no blackouts. I watched Wednesday’s game on MLB.tv. As for regular season in-market streaming, I assume it will run through MLB.tv, and you’ll just have to sign up and pay an extra fee for the service. YES actually had an in-market service a few years ago that was great, and that’s exactly how it worked. Sign up through MLB.com, then watch on MLB.tv like any other game. You need to subscribe to YES to get the in-market streaming this year, so I assume when you sign up, you’ll be asked for your cable provider info. Whenever I get more concrete information, I’ll be sure to pass it along.
Eric asks: Is Aroldis Chapman eligible for a qualifying offer? My original understanding of the rule was that as long as a player wasn’t traded in season he was eligible to receive a QO. However, last year I remember reading Yoenis Cespedes wasn’t eligible to get a QO from the Tigers if he wasn’t traded which was what pushed Detroit to trade him. So whats the deal with the QO system with Chapman?
Cespedes had a unique contract. In his original four-year contract with the Athletics, it explicitly said the team had to non-tender him after the fourth year to make him a free agent. (Otherwise he would have remained under team control as an arbitration-eligible player.) The non-tender deadline is after the qualifying offer deadline, which is why Cespedes couldn’t get a qualifying offer. Chapman’s eligible for the qualifying offer. The suspension doesn’t change anything. Now, if the Yankees trade Chapman at the deadline, he will no longer be eligible for the qualifying offer. The player has to spend the full season with the team and Chapman will do that in 2016. Right now there’s no reason to think the Yankees won’t make him the qualifying offer.
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