Archive for Analysis
Two games into his MLB career, Masahiro Tanaka looks very much like the number two starter he was expected to be when he left the Rakuten Golden Eagles. Yeah, he has shown a penchant for the long ball, but he has also struck out 18 of 56 batters faced (32.1%) while walking only one (1.8%). He leads the league in swing and miss rate (17.2%) and in getting hitters to chase out of the zone (43.9%), both by comfortable margins.
Obviously the element of surprise is working in Tanaka’s favor. Most MLB hitters have never faced him before, and while they can watch all the video and read all the scouting reports in the world, there’s no substitute for standing in the box and seeing him for yourself. Tanaka definitely has an advantage right now, but eventually that element of surprise will go away. That’s okay though! He’s not going to turn into Sidney Ponson once the book gets out. Or maybe he will. Who knows? Whatever.
Anyway, one thing I’ve noticed about Tanaka in his two starts is that he is very unpredictable. I don’t mean his performance, I mean his pitch selection. It seems like he will throw almost anything in any count, but that’s just what I’ve seen, or at least what I think I’ve seen. I always think back to this whenever I’m writing about anecdotal stuff. PitchFX can tell us more about Tanaka’s pitch selection than my memory, so with a big assist from Brooks Baseball, here is how he has pitched in various situations in his two starts:
I was originally planning to include a table with the pitch selection breakdown by count, but that was a mess of numbers and in some cases the sample was only a handful of pitches. It was too much information. Breaking it down like I did above works much better, trust me. (If you must see the individual count info, you can do it via the Brooks link above.)
The first thing that stands out to me is how Tanaka has pitched with the count even. The cutter is his clear sixth pitch but otherwise he will throw his four-seamer, sinker, slider, and splitter interchangeably in those situations. The curveball lags behind slightly. How do you prepare for that if you’re a hitter? You can’t sit on a pitch with the count even. You can get lucky and guess right, sure, but there’s no pattern there. You’re just as likely to see a straight four-seamer as you are his trademark splitter.
When he gets ahead in the count, Tanaka tends to lean on his slider and especially his splitter, understandably. Those are his out pitches and when you’re ahead, you try to finish hitters off. He still throws plenty of fastballs in those counts, enough to keep hitters honest. When he’s behind, it tends to be mostly fastballs, which is pretty common. Tanaka has still thrown at least four different pitches at least 10% of the time regardless of whether he’s ahead in the count, behind in the count, or even.
So yeah, my memory didn’t lie. Tanaka has been very unpredictable with his pitch selection in his two starts. That doesn’t mean he will pitch this way forever, but that’s what has happened so far. I tend to think unpredictability is a good thing when it comes to pitching, but there is also an argument to be made that Tanaka’s splitter is so good that he shouldn’t bother screwing around with his other pitches in certain situations. Here’s a quote from one scout, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus (no subs. req’d):
“Without a doubt the splitter is a difference maker; it could very well be the best in the game. But I have concerns about the way he nibbles at the plate and drives up his pitch counts at times. He also gets a little too reliant on the fastball as well, using it instead of the splitter too often when he’s ahead of the count. He does have velocity, but it’s not nearly the same caliber of putaway pitch as the splitter. Why eat ground chuck when you’ve got filet in the fridge?”
Tanaka has averaged only 3.54 pitches per plate appearance in his two starts, the 79th lowest among 93 qualified starters. The first two innings of his two starts have been rough, but he’s averaged 3.43 pitches per plate appearance in the first and second inning. It’s 3.60 pitches per plate appearances from the third inning onward. This does not necessarily mean the scout is wrong. Tanaka has had some extended at-bats (like everyone else) and perhaps he could cut down on those by emphasizing the splitter.
The early inning struggles have been annoying, but Tanaka has pitched very well overall against two tough lineups in his two starts. Hitters haven’t seen him and that’s a distinct advantage, and the fact that he mixes pitches and uses his arsenal so well makes him even more unpredictable. Even though he is only 25 years old, Tanaka definitely has a “crafty veteran” element to his pitching style, and it’s a lot of fun to watch.
The Yankees dropped their season-opener to the Astros on Tuesday for more than a few reasons, including a rebuilt offense that didn’t show up until about the seventh inning. CC Sabathia shoulders most of the blame because he was awful, allowing six runs in six innings. Doesn’t matter who you’re playing, climbing out of a 6-0 hole is tough for any lineup.
That game really was a tale of two Sabathias. He was abysmal in those first two innings, allowing all six runs on six hits, including two homers and two doubles. Over his final four innings, Sabathia kept Houston off the board and held them to a walk and two singles, one of which didn’t leave the infield. Five of his six strikeouts came in those final four innings and only one of the 14 batters he faced after the second hit the ball in the air. Sabathia was terrible the first two innings and pretty damn good the final four.
As I mentioned yesterday, the mid-start turn-around was so drastic that you have to think some kind of adjustment was made. Maybe Sabathia did it on his own, maybe pitching coach Larry Rothschild pointed something out, maybe it was Brian McCann. We’ve seen CC struggle early in a start before figuring it out before, so Opening Day wasn’t that unique, but it was especially noticeable on Tuesday. For what it’s worth, Sabathia chalked it up to adrenaline.
“It got out of hand early,” said CC to Chad Jennings after the game. “That’s been the toughest thing for me. I do get so excited. I feel like I’m a kid again. I would sleep in my uniform if I could the night before Opening Day. I think it’s just the nervousness, the jitters, wanting to start the season off good so bad, I end up pitching bad.”
It’s very possible Sabathia’s adjustment was simply calming down, but whatever it was, it should show up in the results somewhere. His velocity held steady all game — his fastball averaged 89.7 mph on Tuesday, down from 90.3 mph on Opening Day last year — and while Sabathia said he starting throwing his new cutter in the later innings, PitchFX didn’t pick any up. Maybe the system is broke, maybe the cutting action was so big they were classified as sliders. Who knows?
Whenever Sabathia struggles, it seems like it’s because he misses his location. That sounds obvious, I know. Sure, he gives up the occasional hit on a pitcher’s pitch like everyone else, but the Astros punished him early because he was missing out over the plate. I’m going to point this out again:
Those are the homers by Jesus Guzman (left) and L.J. Hoes (right). Dexter Fowler swatted a similar pitch to center, leading off the game with a double. Belt high offerings right out over the plate. That’s no way to pitch.
So did Sabathia’s location improve in innings three through six? To the PitchFX data:
Just to be clear, that is looking from the catcher’s perspective.
I was hoping there would be a big blob of blue pitches over the middle of the pitches and a bunch of red on the edges, but no dice. That would have been cool. Sabathia threw 99 pitches in the start, including 50 in the first two innings and 49 in the final four, so the sample is split right down the middle. That’s convenient. There are two things going on in this graph that I want to look at specifically, so let’s make life easy:
Like I said, two things I want to look at, hence the colored ovals. To the details:
Yellow Oval: The Astros had eight right-handed or switch hitters in the lineup, so these pitches are more or less in the wheelhouse. Belt high and right out over the plate. Sabathia threw seven pitches in this general area in the first two innings, resulting in the two homers, Fowler’s double, Jason Castro’s run-scoring fielder’s choice, a foul ball, a called strike, and a swing and a miss. In innings three through six, he threw only two pitches in this area, getting a foul ball and a swing and miss. If you want to count that one extra pitch at the top of the zone that’s hiding under the yellow oval, that’s another swing and miss. So yes, Sabathia did a better job of staying out of the danger zone in those final four innings.
Blue Oval (or cyan, whatever): I’m not going to count pitches and look at individual results here. I’m pointing this part of the strike zone out because it’s the outer half of the plate and generally the bottom half of the zone. With those eight righty bats in the lineup, that where you’d want a left-hander to pitch, down and away. Sabathia didn’t throw too many pitches down there in the first two innings — he was really all over the place in those two innings, geez — but he did a much better job of locating the ball down and away in his final four innings. Getting the ball out of the wheelhouse and instead burying it down there is a surefire way to improve performance.
Location is very important but it is just one piece of the pitching pie. I also want to look at whether Sabathia changed up his pitch mix as the game progressed, so here’s the breakdown:
|Batters Faced||1st Pitch FB||FB%||CH%||SL%|
That is … the exact opposite of what I expected. I thought Sabathia would have thrown fewer fastballs and particularly fewer first-pitch fastballs in those last four innings. Instead, he threw more fastballs than he did earlier in the game. He really pounded the zone with his heater late. Very surprising, at least to me. I guess he just got into a groove and was better able to drive the ball down and away to all those righties.
At some point between the second and third innings, something happened that helped Sabathia better locate his pitches, particularly his fastball. The PitchFX data confirms this. We have Point A (innings 1-2) and Point B (innings 3-6), but no knowledge of Sabathia got there. Maybe he did just calm down. Maybe it really is that simple. I can’t help but think some kind of mechanical adjustment was made, something that helped him get the ball down and get it on the outer half of the plate against righties.
“I just think it was a matter of relaxing. I didn’t want to go out and overthrow and be all over the place, but I think backing off didn’t help either so I got to find a place in the middle where I can pitch good,” said Sabathia to Jennings and Jorge Castillo. “I’ve got 34, hopefully, more starts left. I’m definitely not going to pitch like I did tonight in the first two innings. I know I can pitch, and I know I can get guys out. I feel great. I’m not going to beat myself up about this.”
Sabathia has always been super-accountable and when he struggled last year, he crushed himself after every start. Tuesday though? Eh, no big deal, I’ll be fine. I wonder if that is a function of knowing the problem and knowing how to solve it. Sabathia stunk last year and he always seemed to be looking for a fix. There were no answers and he as clearly frustrated. This year, it seems like he knows what was wrong in those first two innings and knows the solution. He found it in the middle of the start. That he didn’t tear into himself after the game may be an indication that is the case.
Let’s not try to soften the blow here, Sabathia was terrible overall on Opening Day. He didn’t give the Yankees much of a chance at all. That he turned it around literally between innings and settled down is encouraging. We don’t know what changed, but something did. I guess there’s always a chance nothing changed too. We are talking about the Astros. It’s early in the season though and this is the time for optimism, so let’s say he fixed something. Sabathia has a big test against the Blue Jays on Sunday, so we ‘ll get to see if whatever adjustment was make between the second and third innings on Tuesday is a sustainable formula for success.
We have more ways to evaluate baseball than ever before, yet it still feels like we’ve only seen the tip of the analytical iceberg. There are still so many aspects of the game we’re unable to fully understand or accurately measure.
On Saturday, at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston, Major League Baseball Advanced Media introduced its new “player tracking” system that, basically, will measure everything that happens on the field. I’m not joking when I say everything. The ball, the fielders, the whole nine. Here’s more from Mark Newman (of MLB.com, not the Yankees’ front office):
The goal is to revolutionize the way people evaluate baseball, by presenting for the first time the tools that connect all actions that happen on a field to determine how they work together. This new datastream will enable the industry to understand the whole play on the field — batting, pitching, fielding and baserunning — and enable new metrics for evaluation by clubs, scouts, players and fans.
For instance, on a brilliant, game-saving diving catch by an outfielder, this new system will let us understand what created that outcome. Was it the quickness of his first step, his acceleration? Was it his initial positioning? What if the pitcher had thrown a different pitch? Everything will be connected for the first time, providing a tool for answers to questions like this and more.
You can see the system at work in the video above, though there is much more to it than that. Only three ballparks (Miller Park, CitiField, Target Field) will have the system up and running for this season, but the goal is to having it operational in all 30 parks by 2015. I’m surprised all of this information will be publicly available, to be honest. I thought it would be kept proprietary.
Needless to say, this new system will change the way the game is evaluated. The stuff we have now is good, but it doesn’t compare to detailed information on defensive routes, first step quickness, batted ball quality, and a million other things. There has not been a reliable way to accurately measure that sorta stuff until now. It’ll be a while until we have this data for the entire league and learning how to properly use it will take even longer, but man, this new system is a gold mine.
Regardless of what Brian Cashman says during radio interviews, the Yankees have very high hopes for Masahiro Tanaka. No team spends $155M on a guy unless they expect him to be an impact player. Sure, there may be an initial adjustment period coming over from Japan, but the Yankees are expecting Tanaka to slot in near the top of their rotation for at least the next four years.
Just about every scouting report we’ve seen these last few weeks says Tanaka owns a swing-and-miss splitter, arguably the best split-finger fastball in the world. That’s the pitch that separates him from the Kei Igawas and Kaz Ishiis of the pitching world and has everyone thinking he’ll be a number two-ish starter long-term. Despite that out-pitch splitter, Tanaka’s strikeout rate hasn’t been all that impressive in recent years:
The big league average was 7.6 K/9 and 19.9 K% last season, so striking out fewer than one-quarter of batters faced in NPB doesn’t exactly scream “ready to dominate MLB,” especially considering the downward trend in Tanaka’s strikeout rate. Having a swing-and-miss splitter that is racking up fewer and fewer strikeouts is a red flag, no doubt. We do have some explanation for the dropping strikeout rate though, courtesy of Keith Law (subs. req’d):
Tanaka used to pitch away from contact, but in the past two years, he has become more aggressive within the zone with his fastball, and his splitter is a solid 60 on the 20-80 scale.
According to Law, Tanaka essentially started pitching to contact these last few years. The hitters in Japan are not all that great, and it seems like he realized he didn’t need to nibble on the edges to succeed, he could simply pound the zone. That approach won’t work in MLB, or at least it won’t work as well. Tanaka will have to go back to living on the corners, and by all indications, he can do that.
Sticking to the edges of the plate should help increase Tanaka’s strikeout rate naturally — he is bound to get some favorable calls on borderline pitches, especially since Brian McCann and Frankie Cervelli are better than average pitch-framers — but other factors will work in his favor as well. First and foremost is the general hitting style around the league. Here’s something Buster Olney (subs. req’d) wrote a few weeks ago, with an assist from former Yankee Casey McGehee, who was Tanaka teammate with the Rakuten Golden Eagles in 2013:
McGehee believes that Tanaka will continue to improve pitching in the major leagues because the style of play suits Tanaka. The bottom of the lineups in Japan, McGehee said, are often rounded out with hitters whose goal is merely to fend off the forthcoming pitch. They’ll shorten their swing, foul the ball off, and survive to see another pitch. Hitters in the majors, McGehee noted, are more apt to look to do damage — to take bigger and more aggressive swings, in turn having plate appearances with few pitches.
The league average strikeout rate in Japan last year was 6.7 K/9 and 17.5 K%, so a large portion of the hitters definitely focused on simply making contract. The idea of hitters “whose goal is merely to fend off the forthcoming pitch” is not a thing that exists in MLB. Don’t get me wrong, they’re all trying to make contact, but the emphasis is on hard contact. Strikeouts are generally more accepted these days, as long as the trade-off involves a higher on-base percentage and more power.
The idea of a pitcher coming over from Japan and improving his strikout rate in MLB seems kinda silly — the competition level in NPB is clearly not the same as is in the big leagues — but it’s hardly unprecedented. Here are how the five most recent NPB imports fared after coming over to the States:
|MLB K%||Final NPB Season K%||Final Three NPB Seasons K%|
Chen is from Taiwan but he did pitch for the Chunichi Dragons in Japan from 2005-11 before signing with the Orioles. Anyway, aside from Dice-K, recent Japanese starters have maintained if not improved their strikeout rate after coming over to MLB. The hitters over here are better than the hitters in Japan, but they will also sell out for power and strike out more often. Furthermore, the bottom of the zone has expanded in recent years (as Jon Roegele recently explained), which should help Tanaka and his diving splitter.
There is one other thing to consider, and that is pitching coach Larry Rothschild. Rothschild came to the Yankees with a reputation for improving strikeout rates and that has held true during his time in pinstripes: Yankees pitchers had a 7.38 K/9 (19.2 K%) during the three years before Rothschild and a 7.80 K/9 (20.5 K%) in the three years with Rothschild. Obviously personnel has something to do with that, but veteran guys like CC Sabathia and Andy Pettitte have seen their strikeout rate improve under Rothschild. Tanaka may do the same.
It’s pretty obvious why strikeouts are good, right? Nothing bad can happen when the ball is not put in play, and that is especially true for the Yankees, who could have a pretty ugly infield defense this year. Tanaka’s strikeout rate with Rakuten last year wasn’t anything special, but there are a number of reasons why he might whiff more batters in MLB going forward. His pitching approach, more aggressive hitters, the expanding zone, Rothschild, all of that and more can work to his advantage. Tanaka doesn’t necessarily need to strike a ton of guys out to be effective, but the more strikeouts he records, the better off he and the Yankees will be.
Now that Masahiro Tanaka is officially a Yankee, we can finally stop talking about what it will take to land him and begin to focus on how he might actually … you know … pitch next season. Novel idea, I know. Unfortunately scouting reports and NPB stats don’t tell us much about how Tanaka will handle the transition from NPB to the AL East, nevermind the cultural change and all the off-the-field stuff he’ll have to deal with. It can be overwhelming.
Most reports have indicated Tanaka will be a number two starter in the big leagues and that means … I don’t know, really. Aces are pretty easy to identify; they’re the guys who have strung together a few years of truly elite production*. Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, guys like that. You can see them a mile away. They’re in their own little world. Number twos are a little different, they’re a notch below the aces but still among the top 25-30 starters in the game. At least that’s what I think.
* That “strung together a few years” part is important in my opinion. It’s possible for a pitcher to have a random ace-like season (Esteban Loaiza!) but the true aces are the guys who do it year after year.
A few days ago Dan Szymborski (subs. req’d) ran Tanaka through his ZiPS system to come up with a projected performance over the life of the seven-year contract. Projections are not predictions, they’re just an estimation of a player’s true talent level. There’s wiggle room in each direction and that is especially true when talking about a pitcher making the transition from NPB to MLB. Here’s what the system spit out:
Let’s focus on 2014-17 since Tanaka can opt-out after the fourth year. They’re the only guaranteed years of the contract. ZiPS has Tanaka sitting in the 3.5-4.0 WAR range during those four years, averaging 3.8 WAR per seasons. Pitchers who have averaged roughly 3.8 WAR per year from 2011-12 include Kris Medlen, Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Lohse, Zack Greinke, and Doug Fister. Those guys feel like number twos right? They were among the top 25 pitchers in baseball by WAR over the last two seasons, so they fit what we talked about a paragraph or two ago.
I suspect the general sense will be that Tanaka did not live up to expectations if he manages a 3.68 ERA and 3.8 WAR next season, but I think that would actually be pretty awesome in his first year stateside. ZiPS projected Yu Darvish for a 3.62 ERA and 4.5 WAR two years ago, a bit better than his actual 3.90 ERA and 3.9 WAR. The system was in the ballpark, at least. If Tanaka finishes with, say, a 4.00 ERA and 3.0 WAR in 2014, it would still be pretty good but I think most would say he failed to meet expectations, fair or not.
The projections shouldn’t be taken to heart, obviously. It is an objective measure based on historical data though, and that’s better than guessing, which is what we’d be doing otherwise. If Tanaka lives up to the projections and gives the team something close to 4.0 WAR during the first four years of his contract, he’ll have more than lived up to the contract. If he settles in as a 3.0 WAR pitcher instead, that’ll be fine too. Maybe not what we all expected but not bad by any means.
After weeks and weeks of waiting, we now know Alex Rodriguez has been suspended for the entire 2014 season. The team still owes him some salary and he will count a small amount against the luxury tax this year (as I explained earlier), but for the most part his massive $27.5M luxury tax hit has been wiped off the books. Plus they don’t need to worry about his first $6M homerun milestone bonus. You can bet the front office and ownership are rejoicing.
With A-Rod suspended, it is once again time to look over the team’s payroll situation. As a reminder, the numbers listed are luxury tax hits, not actual 2014 salary. The two can be and often are different. For reference, here are Part One (last January), Part Two (August), Part Three (November), and Part Four (December) of the series.
- Under Contract ($153.766M): CC Sabathia ($24.4M), Mark Teixeira ($22.5M), Jacoby Ellsbury ($21.9M), Brian McCann ($17M), Hiroki Kuroda ($16M), Carlos Beltran ($15M), Derek Jeter ($12.81M), Ichiro Suzuki ($6.5M), Alfonso Soriano ($4M), Matt Thornton ($3.5M), A-Rod ($3.156M), Kelly Johnson ($3M), Brian Roberts ($2M), Brendan Ryan ($2M)
- Arbitration-Eligible ($14.8M projected): David Robertson ($5.5M), Brett Gardner ($4M), Ivan Nova ($2.8M), Shawn Kelley ($1.5M), Frankie Cervelli ($1M)
- Pre-Arbitration-Eligible: Zoilo Almonte, Dean Anna, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Cesar Cabral, Jose Campos, Preston Claiborne, Ramon Flores, Shane Greene, Slade Heathcott, David Huff, Bryan Mitchell, J.R. Murphy, Eduardo Nunez, Vidal Nuno, David Phelps, Michael Pineda, Jose Ramirez, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Nik Turley, Adam Warren
- Potential Bonuses ($10.1M): Jeter (up to $7M based on awards), Roberts (up to $2.6M in incentives), Kuroda (up to $500k based on innings)
- Other ($12.085M): Benefits (approximately $12M), Kuroda’s translator ($85k)
Roberts’ one-year contract — Dan Connolly says it includes a $2M base salary plus $2.6M in plate appearance-based incentives — is not yet official but it will be very soon, so I’m including him. And yes, Kuroda’s translator counts against the luxury tax according to Dan Martin and Ken Davidoff. So silly.
The 15 players who are on the 40-man roster but not on the active 25-man roster are typically estimately at $2M-5M, so let’s go with $5M. Adding together everything above gives us a $195.751M payroll for luxury tax purposes for this coming season. If we say Jeter and Roberts are unlikely to trigger their bonuses but Kuroda will hit his, we’re still at $186.151M. It’s worth noting the players’ union expects Gardner’s salary to be “considerably higher” than projected by Matt Swartz’s model. We’re just going to have to wait to see about that.
That $186.151M gives the team just $2.849M to spend under the $189M luxury tax threshold. It also leaves them with this projected 25-man roster come Opening Day:
|McCann||1B Teixeira||LF Gardner||Sabathia||Robertson|
|2B Roberts||CF Ellsbury||Kuroda||Kelley|
|DH||SS Jeter||RF Beltran/Soriano||Nova||Thornton|
|Beltran/Soriano||3B Johnson||? (Phelps)||? (Warren)|
|C Cervelli||OF Ichiro||?|
Based on what we heard yesterday, that last bench ? is going to a low cost player like Nunez, Anna, Scott Sizemore, Corban Joseph, or Yangervis Solarte. Johnson’s flexibility means he’s the emergency fifth outfielder in any given game. Barring a surprise addition, the position player portion of the Opening Day roster is pretty much set aside from that forthcoming Spring Training competition.
The pitching staff is much more up in the air. We know the Yankees are pursuing Masahiro Tanaka but signing him is not a given. If they fail to sign him, Brian Cashman has indicated they could look for cheap starters a la Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon back during the 2010-11 offseason. What we do know is there will be a fifth starter competition in camp, so that guy will be cheap. I have Phelps in parentheses in the table just because he seems like the favorite for the job, but it could just as easily be Warren. I do expect both to be on the Opening Day roster though, one as a starter and one in the bullpen.
The last three bullpen ?s could all wind up going to cheap internal candidates and the Yankees have a ton of ‘em. Huff, Betances, Claiborne, Cabral, Nuno, Robert Coello, Brian Gordon, Matt Daley, David Herndon, on and on it goes. I would love to see the Yankees add one (preferably two) relievers with some more big league pedigree, someone like Grant Balfour or Luis Ayala or even Joel Hanrahan, who isn’t expected to return from Tommy John surgery until sometime in May or June. Cheaps bullpens are great, but a bullpen in which Kelley is the second best reliever makes me a wee bit nervous.
So let’s say that out of those seven total ?s, five will be filled internally. Sizemore, Phelps, Warren, Huff, and Betances. Sound good? Good. Those guys will all earn something close to the league minimum, meaning another $3M or so added to the payroll. That brings us up to $189.151M total with one rotation spot and one bullpen spot still open. So the Yankees are already over the luxury tax threshold without a full roster or money set aside for midseason call-ups and waiver claims and whatever else.
There is obviously some leeway here — my $5M assumption for the 15 non-active roster players is conservative — but it’s clear signing Tanaka will put the Yankees over the luxury tax threshold. No doubt about it. Going with a cheap starter and a moderately priced reliever like Ayala would also put them over the threshold. Heck, going cheap with that last rotation and bullpen spot still puts them right up against the threshold at the very least, if not over. And remember, Gardner’s salary may end up larger than projected and they’ll need to call guys up throughout the season. The only two ways the Yankees can realistically clear payroll is by trading Gardner or Ichiro, and they’d have to eat some cash to move the latter. Plus they’d have to pay players to replace them.
Even with A-Rod almost completely off the books, the Yankees are still going to wind up over the luxury tax threshold this summer. The only question is how much. As one team executive said recently, “We either have to be under $189M or up over $200M or more. Think how dumb it would look if we worked for a few years to get under $189M and we didn’t and we were at like $189M and just missed. Either we go under or way over.” Given their current payroll situation, it looks like they’ll be way over. Hooray for that.
At some point very soon, perhaps today, the Yankees will formally announce the signing of Carlos Beltran. The 40-man roster is full at the moment, so someone will lose their spot when Beltran puts pen to paper. The same will happen when Brian Roberts becomes official. Ditto Matt Thornton and another starter and a third baseman and a reliever or two.
Needless to say, the Yankees are going to have some tough decisions to make regarding roster spots in the near future. There are more pending contracts and still unaddressed needs than obvious designate for assignment/release candidates. Let’s sort through the roster (here’s the 40-man for reference) and attempt to figure out who is most expendable when 40-man spots are needed in the coming weeks.
Definitely Safe (19): Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Slade Heathcott, Derek Jeter, Kelly Johnson, Shawn Kelley, Hiroki Kuroda, Brian McCann, J.R. Murphy, Ivan Nova, David Phelps, Michael Pineda, David Robertson, Brendan Ryan, CC Sabathia, Gary Sanchez, Alfonso Soriano, Mark Teixeira, Adam Warren
These nineteen players aren’t going anywhere for obvious reasons. They’re either key pieces of the big league roster or among New York’s top prospects. If any of these guys are traded, they’ll be traded for someone to help the big league team. Not a non-40-man roster candidate for a sake of clearing a roster spot.
It’s Complicated (1): Alex Rodriguez
The day will come when the Yankees dump A-Rod off the 40-man, but that day is not imminent. Not as long as the ruling for his appeal hearing — a ruling that could save the team tens of millions of dollars — is still pending.
Now, that said, Rodriguez would not count against the 40-man roster if he is suspended, so he could win up opening a spot anyway. The ruling is expected sometime next month and there are indications the Yankees won’t add another infielder until it comes down — makes sense since there is only one open position player slot on the roster at the moment — so either A-Rod or a player occupying his 40-man spot will man third come Opening Day. Like I said, it’s complicated.
Probably Safe (12): Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Cesar Cabral, Jose Campos, Frankie Cervelli, Preston Claiborne, Shane Greene, Bryan Mitchell, Eduardo Nunez, Vidal Nuno, Jose Ramirez, Austin Romine
I don’t think you can say any of these folks are absolutely locked into the roster spots and untouchable, but it would be surprising if they were dumped to make room for someone else. Is it possible? Sure. Likely? Nah. There’s no such thing as too much pitching or catching depth, and the Yankees are in a position to cut loose an infielder like Nunez at this moment.
These are the guys who could legitimately lose their roster spot in the next few weeks. Ichiro is a useful fifth outfielder at this point but he doesn’t really have a role with the team outside of defensive replacement and pinch-runner. The Yankees have been shopping him in recent weeks and if the opportunity emerges to shed some salary, they’ll probably jump all over it.
Flores and Marshall had disappointing 2013 seasons and that’s probably enough to put them on the chopping block. They’re okay but not great prospects, the kinda guys who could slip through waivers. Turley is a notch above those two on the prospect totem pole and since he’s both left-handed and breathing, he’d definitely get claimed off waivers. He seems like an unlikely future roster casuality but I wouldn’t rule it out completely if things get tight.
Almonte and Anna are the “next in line” depth players. If (and when, really) an outfielder gets hurt next summer, Almonte will be called up to take his place. When an infielder gets hurt, it’ll be Anna. Maybe the Yankees feel comfortable with Heathcott and Nunez in those roles, but that MLB-ready depth is never a bad thing. Considering the current roster situation, it’s not unreasonable to think one of these two could be in jeopardy come February or so.
These two guys stand out as obvious candidates to lose their spots. Huff had a nice run as a swingman late in the season but he has a) not been mentioned as part of any kind of Spring Training competition, and b) been replaced as the lefty out of the bullpen by Thorton. As a soft-tosser in a tiny ballpark in the AL East with no track record of big league success, he’s exactly the kind of guy you want to dump too early rather than too late.
Wells, meanwhile, has been relegated to sixth outfielder status by the Ellsbury and Beltran signings. He doesn’t hit lefties (89 wRC+ vs. LHP in 2013) and his power completely vanished in mid-May last season. He also doesn’t play anything more than passable defense and isn’t particularly versatile. Wells is a man without a role now that he’s stopped hitting southpaws, making him a prime roster cut candidate. The fact that he counts as zero dollars against the luxury tax (the Yankees owe him $2.4M in real dollars next season) makes walking away a little easier to swallow.
* * *
Whenever the Beltran contract is made official, it would make sense that Wells would lose his 40-man roster spot as the corresponding roster move. The Yankees would still have Ellsbury, Beltran, Soriano, Gardner, and Ichiro at the big league level with Almonte slated for Triple-A. Cutting Wells for Beltran is so obvious and makes so much sense it probably won’t happen. I wouldn’t be surprised if they cut Huff instead.
Either way, both guys seem likely to lose their 40-man spots in the coming weeks given the roster crunch. After them, I would guess Marshall and Flores are most at risk of being cut. An Ichiro trade and/or an A-Rod suspension would both make life a little easier and give the team some added flexibility. Once Huff and Wells are gone, the Yankees are going to have to make some real tough decisions when it comes to fitting everyone on the roster heading into next season.
If you’re interested, Dan Szymborski published his ZiPS projections for the current Yankees roster over at FanGraphs today. The graphic above includes the WAR projections. Just to be clear, projections are not predictions. The system is just spitting out an estimation of each players’ current talent level. I wouldn’t take the projections to heart even though ZiPS has been the most accurate of the various systems (on a macro scale) for a while now. Just look at ‘em for fun.
Some quick observations: Holy cow that infield is awful. ZiPS has Ellsbury hitting 14 homers, which would be awesome. The system likes Dean Anna and J.R. Murphy (both 1.6 WAR) but hates Brett Marshall (-3.1 WAR (!)). I wonder if any other player projects that poorly. After David Robertson, the current bullpen is just about replacement level or worse. ZiPS thinks Derek Jeter is toast (0.4 WAR) while Alex Rodriguez has a tiny something left in the tank (1.0 WAR).
As the disclaimer in the ZiPS post says, don’t add up the projected WAR total and use that to come up with an expected 2014 win total. The system doesn’t work like that. If it did, the Yankees would be pretty screwed. Click the link to scroll through the individual projections if you’re so inclined.
Boy have things changed since we last looked at the Yankees’ payroll situation. They lost Robinson Cano and Curtis Granderson to free agency but responded with four significant signings (plus one smaller one) of their own. There was also the non-tender deadline, which brought about some change. These last few weeks have been quite busy for the Bombers.
Needless to say, the chances of the Yankees staying under the $189M luxury tax threshold next season have taken a big hit. The team has been talking about staying under the threshold (at every opportunity, it seemed) for a good two years now, plus just about every move they made was geared towards achieving that goal. Just look at the way they structured the money in the Vernon Wells trade last spring.
Here is an updated look at the team’s payroll situation heading into next season. These are “luxury tax hits,” not actual 2014 salary. The two can be different. For reference, here are Part One (January), Part Two (August), and Part Three (November) of the series.
- Under Contract ($172.61M): Alex Rodriguez ($27.5M), CC Sabathia ($24.4M), Mark Teixeira ($22.5M), Jacoby Ellsbury ($21.9M), Brian McCann ($17M), Hiroki Kuroda ($16M), Carlos Beltran ($15M), Derek Jeter ($12.81M), Ichiro Suzuki ($6.5M), Alfonso Soriano ($4M), Kelly Johnson ($3M), Brendan Ryan ($2M), Wells ($0)
- Arbitration-Eligible ($14.8M projected): David Robertson ($5.5M), Brett Gardner ($4M), Ivan Nova ($2.8M), Shawn Kelley ($1.5M), Frankie Cervelli ($1M)
- Pre-Arbitration-Eligible: Zoilo Almonte, Dean Anna, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Cesar Cabral, Jose Campos, Preston Claiborne, Ramon Flores, Shane Greene, Slade Heathcott, David Huff, Brett Marshall, Bryan Mitchell, J.R. Murphy, Eduardo Nunez, Vidal Nuno, David Phelps, Michael Pineda, Jose Ramirez, Austin Romine, Gary Sanchez, Nik Turley, Adam Warren
- Potential Bonuses ($13.5M): Jeter (up to $7M based on awards), A-Rod ($6M for his 660th career homer), Kuroda (up to $500k based on innings)
- Other ($12.085M): Benefits (approximately $12M), Kuroda’s translator ($85k)
Yes, Kuroda’s translator counts against the luxury tax, at least according to Dan Martin and Ken Davidoff. I know, it’s silly, but it is what it is. Eight-five grand doesn’t sound like much, but it is one month’s worth of the league minimum salary. That means one fewer September call-up if the team wants to stay under the luxury tax threshold. Like I said, silly.
Anyway, add the guys under contract to the arbitration eligibles to the possible bonuses to the “other” and you get $212.995M. The 15 guys on the 40-man roster — there are 41 players listed above because the Beltran deal is not official yet, but they will have to make a move to accommodate him once the deal is final — but not on the active 25-man roster are usually estimated at $2-5M, so let’s use the high end and go with $5M. Now we’re up to $217.995M. The Bombers opened this past season at $228.1M and ended it at $236.2M, in case you’re wondering.
Obviously, the Yankees are not getting under the threshold without A-Rod getting suspended for all of next season. Not unless they trade Teixeira and Ichiro or something. Subtract out Alex’s salary and homer bonus and we’re down to $184.495M. Basically $4.5M under the luxury tax. Feel comfortable saying Jeter won’t win the MVP? I think that’s a safe assumption — he hasn’t won an MVP yet and is now coming off what amounts to a lost season at age 39. Eliminating the “win MVP” bonus from his contract frees up another $4M and brings us down to $180.495M.
What does that $180.495M buy the Yankees? Here is the projected 25-man roster as of right now:
|McCann||1B Teixeira||LF Gardner||Sabathia||Robertson|
|2B Johnson or ?||CF Ellsbury||Kuroda||Kelley|
|DH||SS Jeter||RF Beltran/Soriano||Nova||? (Warren)|
|Beltran/Soriano||3B Johnson or ?||? (Phelps)||? (Huff)|
|C Cervelli||OF Ichiro||?|
|IF Ryan||OF Wells|
There are eight total ?s but we can eliminate four with internal solutions. Those are the guys in parentheses. Phelps, Warren, Huff, and Betances — Huff and Betances are both out of minor league options (can’t go to Triple-A without passing through waivers) and that could give them a leg up when cut day comes around at the end of camp — will all earn something close to the league minimum, so that’s another $2.2M or so spent right there with four ?s still to be answered.
I assume those four ?s will go to veteran players yet to be acquired. That would be ideal, anyway. I guess they could go with Cabral and Clairborne for those final two bullpen spots, or maybe re-sign Matt Daley, but that would be a really sketchy relief corps behind Robertson. The Yankees would have just $6.305M to fill those four holes ($189M – $180.495M – $2.2M), which isn’t much. A big name starting pitcher like Masahiro Tanaka or Matt Garza or whoever isn’t happening without going over the threshold. Ditto Omar Infante. We’re talking $6.305M for a second/third baseman, a starter, and two relievers. Plus they’ll need to leave a little something for midseason call-ups and additions. Gonna be tight.
I see only three ways the Yankees could realistically trim payroll. They could dump Cervelli and replace him with the cheaper Romine or Murphy, but if they were going to do that, they would have non-tendered Frankie last week. That would only save about $450k anyway. The other two ways to clear some payroll space are by trading Gardner and/or Ichiro. There is “significant interest” in Gardner and the team is shopping Ichiro, so the wheels are in motion. Saving even $3M by dealng Ichiro would be a win. They could replace him with Almonte at the league minimum and see basically no drop in production (Steamer and Oliver projections both have them as sub-1.0 WAR players in 2014, if you care). Zoilo would add some nice versatility to the bench as a switch-hitter as well, but I digress.
Obviously this whole exercise is just an estimate, a ballpark figure. We can only be so precise from the outside. The arbitration-eligible guys could come in at a higher or lower salary than projected, for example. Ditto the benefits package all 30 teams must pay.
Maybe the Yankees are comfortable saying Jeter won’t even finish in the top six of the MVP voting, nevermind win it. That would free up another $2M of potential bonus money. (I’m an idiot, disregard that last part.) There’s plenty of wiggle room here, but I think we can say that while staying under the $189M luxury tax threshold is still possible, it will be very difficult to actually pull off following the team’s recent moves.
According to David Waldstein, Hal Steinbrenner has given the okay to go over the threshold despite his recent public insistance that it remains their goal. Perhaps he’s softened his stance given how much revenue declined from 2012 to 2013 ($58M in ticket sales alone). They have already spent as if A-Rod is being suspended, after all. The Yankees have some payroll space left before getting to $189M, but they also have some roster holes to address. Their next move will be telling — if they sign a starter to a big money deal, forget it. They’re going over. If they sign someone cheap or shed salary in a trade, they might plan on seeing this thing through.
Starting at midnight tonight, free agents will be free to negotiate and sign with any team. The offseason will finally get underway in earnest — up until now it’s been a lot of waiting and boring procedural stuff. Now the Yankees and the other 29 clubs can get down to business for real.
With that in mind, it’s worth figuring out how much money New York has to work with this winter. They’re trimming payroll and intend to get under the $189M luxury tax threshold next year, a threshold they can’t pass at all next season. The payroll is calculated at the end of the year for luxury tax purposes. They don’t get to spend freely after staying under on Opening Day or anything sneaky like that.
The Yankees have many holes to address and, for the first time in a long time, a finite amount of money to do it. Don’t get me wrong, the team never had a truly unlimited budget, but it sure felt like they did at times. None of us were worried about a hard payroll number, that’s for sure. This offseason will be a new experience. Here are the club’s current contract commitments for next season:
- Under Contract ($97.71M): Alex Rodriguez ($27.5M), CC Sabathia ($24.4M), Mark Teixeira ($22.5M), Derek Jeter ($12.81M), Ichiro Suzuki ($6.5M), Alfonso Soriano ($4M), Vernon Wells ($0)
- Arbitration-Eligible ($17.2M projected): David Robertson ($5.5M), Brett Gardner ($4M), Ivan Nova ($2.8M), Shawn Kelley ($1.5M), Jayson Nix ($1.4M), Frankie Cervelli ($1M), Chris Stewart ($1M)
- Pre-Arbitration-Eligible: David Adams, Zoilo Almonte, Manny Banuelos, Dellin Betances, Cesar Cabral, Preston Claiborne, Matt Daley, Ramon Flores, David Huff, Corban Joseph, Brett Marshall, J.R. Murphy, Eduardo Nunez, Vidal Nuno, David Phelps, Michael Pineda, Jose Ramirez, Austin Romine, Nik Turley, Adam Warren
- Potential Bonuses ($13M): Jeter (up to $7M based on awards), A-Rod ($6M for his 660th career homer)
Just to be clear: those are luxury tax numbers, which are based off the average annual value of multi-year contracts. Some players will actually take home a different salary next summer — the money in the Wells trade was structured in such a way that he won’t count towards the tax this year despite a $21M salary — but that is how much they will count against the tax.
I tend to be conservative with this stuff, but I wouldn’t expect even a perfectly healthy, in-his-prime A-Rod to hit the 60 homers he’d need to hit to trigger his second $6M milestone bonus. The team does have to plan for the first milestone though — he’s only six homers away, which is easily doable — ditto Jeter’s awards-based bonuses. That stuff counts towards the luxury tax. Between the guys under contract, the arbitration-eligible, and bonuses, the Yankees already have 14 players locked in at $127.91M for 2014. Add in the $12M or so every team has to contribute towards player benefits and it’s really $139.91M for 14 roster spots.
That $139.91M leaves the team $49.09M to spend on the remaining 26 40-man roster spots. The 15 players on the 40-man but not on the 25-man active roster are usually estimated at $2-5M total (they earn a lower salary in the minors), so assuming the high-end of that range leaves us with $44.09M for the final eleven 25-man active roster spots. Non-tendering Nix and Stewart would free up another $2.4M but also create two more spots to fill. With Cervelli, Romine, and Murphy around, I see no reason to keep Stewart at that price. Nix is a fine utility man but that projected $1.4M salary is a bit steep. Let’s assume those two are non-tendered. We’re now sitting on $46.49M to fill 13 25-man active roster spots.
So what 13 positions, exactly, does the team need to fill with that money? Here’s a look at the roster as it stands right now:
|Cervelli||1B Teixeira||LF Soriano||Sabathia||Robertson|
|2B ?||CF Gardner||Nova||Kelley|
|Designated Hitter||SS Jeter||RF Ichiro/Wells||Phelps||Warren|
|C Romine or Murphy||OF Ichiro/Wells||?|
I think it’s safe to assume Nunez, Phelps, and Warren will make the roster and fill three of those 13 open spots. Phelps and Warren have earned spots and the Yankees love Nunez. He’s not going anywhere. Either Romine or Murphy can fill in as the backup catcher. All four are in their pre-arbitration years and will make something close to the league minimum, leaving the Yankees with roughly $44.29M to answer those remaining nine ?s.
One of those nine ?s is at second base, meaning Robinson Cano. I feel it’s inevitable that he’ll sign a fat new contract, probably something in the $20-25M average annual value range. Splitting the middle and calling it $22.5M leaves the Yankees are left with $21.79M to fill their remaining eight roster spots. They are going to need to save some payroll space for midseason call-ups and acquisitions (trades, waivers, etc.), so let’s make life easy and call it an even $20M for those eight spots. Still with me? Good.
Obviously the two open rotation spots are the biggest concern. The Yankees have some cheap internal options for those last four bullpen spots — specifically Claiborne, Cabral, Huff, Betances, Daley, and Nuno — though I would like to see them add a veteran late-inning guy to pair with Robertson and Kelley. The bullpen has more openings but is not as much of a priority as the rotation at this point. It’s easy to see the appeal of Masahiro Tanaka here — his posting fee is expected to be gigantic but it doesn’t count towards the luxury tax. Only his contract counts towards the tax. Assuming he signs for a $10M average annual value like Yu Darvish, that’s a bargain for someone who many people expect to be a number two-ish starter. He’s a very luxury tax friendly option for the pitching-needy Yankees.
If the Bombers wind up spending $10-12M on Tanaka or another starter, they’ll be left with $8-10M for the remaining seven spots. Betances (league minimum) figures to get one bullpen spot because he’s out of options. The Yankees could find a fifth starter and long man out of the Warren, Huff, Nuno, and Marshall foursome with the other two guys going to Triple-A as the sixth and seventh starters. They’ll be needed at some point, no doubt about it. It’s worth noting Huff is out of options and would need to clear waivers to go to Triple-A. Either way, the fifth starter and long man would make something near the league minimum in this scenario. That leaves $6.5-8.5M for the last four ?s, which are a DH (Mark Reynolds?), another bench player (preferably a lefty bat with some pop), and two relievers. Maybe Huff makes the team as a lefty specialist with another guy filling in as the long man. That’s an option.
Now, for the elephant in the room: A-Rod. If he is suspended for all of next season, his $33.5M tax hit ($27.5M salary plus $6M bonus) is wiped off the books and the Yankees suddenly have a ton of extra money to spend. Someone like Brian McCann or Carlos Beltran or Matt Garza becomes a realistic option. Heck, they’d be able to afford two of those guys with Rodriguez off the books. If he is suspended for only part of the season, the salary portion of his tax hit would be pro-rated but the team would still have to prepare for that full $6M milestone bonus. Either way, A-Rod being suspended for any length of time leads to considerable payroll savings, though the Yankees would have to find someone else for third base. That’s a trade the team would be happy to make.
In addition to what feels like the inevitability of Rodriguez being suspended for some number of games, it’s also unlikely Jeter will reach all of the bonuses in his new contract. The Yankees have to go into 2014 prepared just in case he does, but this is something they can monitor as the season progresses. If July rolls around and it’s obvious he’s not an MVP candidate — seems silly to say now, but remember, he was in the MVP conversation as recently as 2012 — that’s suddenly $4M the team can allocate elsewhere, specifically towards a trade deadline pickup. That’s a nice chunk of change to have available at the deadline.
After running through all of this, it seems like the Yankees have enough payroll space to make one big Tanaka-sized splash in addition to re-signing Cano this winter. A-Rod’s appeal hearing will resume in mid-November, meaning the ruling may not come down until mid-December, after the Winter Meetings. They’ll have a lot more money to spend if he is indeed suspended, but some of the top players figure to be off the board by then. More than anything, I think this little exercise — which is just an estimation, remember, these numbers are not exact — shows just how much the Yankees will need a) Teixeira and Sabathia to rebound, b) Nova to put together a full productive season (not a half one like 2011 and 2013), and b) youngsters like Phelps, Warren, and various catchers to step forward and contribute. That seems like a lot to ask.