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Jackson, Nova among 40-man additions
Posted by: | CommentsThe Yankees have announced seven additions to the team’s 40-man rotation in advance of December’s Rule 5 draft. Among them are Austin Jackson and Ivan Nova. What a difference a year makes for Nova, who was selected and then returned to the Yanks in 2008.
To go along with this move, the Yanks also outrighted Shelley Duncan to AAA Scranton. I’m sure the Yanks would be happy to trade him for some cash. Here’s the full list:
PItchers
Hector Noesi
Ivan Nova
Romulo Sanchez
Infielders
Reegie Corona
Eduardo Nunez
Kevin Russo
Outfielders
Austin Jackson
Interestingly enough, the Yanks now have 39 of their 40-man spots filled, but the team is down a left fielder, a designated hitter and a starting pitcher. Either the Yanks don’t plan to resign more than one of their three big-name free agents so quickly or they will be prepared to cut loose someone on the 40-man if need be. Of those on the current 40-man, Christian Garcia looks awfully expendable.
Yanks say Swish not being shopped, obviously
Posted by: | CommentsYesterday afternoon, a low-level rumor by Bob Nightengale concerning the Yanks’ reportedly making Nick Swisher available took the Internet by storm, and we debunked and contextualized it. Late last night, one of George A. King III’s Yankee sources denied the rumor and said that Swisher isn’t being “shopped.” Of course, he’s not being shopped, but as I said yesterday, if the right offer comes around, he’s available. Nick Swisher is definitely not untradeable.
Rumor de l’après-midi: Rosenthal on the bullpen
Posted by: | CommentsApropos of our early discussion on Nick Swisher’s availability comes one of the more tenuous and sketchier bits of Hot Stove reporting we’ll see all year. In what may or may not qualify as something worth publishing on FoxSports.com, Ken Rosenthal tells us that the Yankees’ pitching plans are still unclear. According to Rosenthal, the Yankees have not yet decided if the bullpen or rotation will undergo an off-season boost. Furthermore, the team may or may not be interested in some free agents. First, “one rival executive” says the Yanks are interested in both Rafael Soriano (RHP) and Mike Gonzalez (LHP), but “another source with knowledge of the Yankees’ thinking” believes the team will fill bullpen holes from within. The two strategies are, by the way, not mutually exclusive.
Anyway, the big problem with this type of reporting is that it does not engender trust in any of the people involved. Rosenthal seemingly puts his own theory — that Soriano or Gonzalez or both would do the Yankees some good — into the mouths of two unnamed baseball sources. Since the free agency frenzy does not commence until midnight tonight, nothing has happened, and it’s starting to show.
What it means to make a player ‘available’
Posted by: | CommentsEarlier this afternoon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today unleashed a panic amongst the members of the Yankee Universe. “The Yankees,” he Tweeted, “ever so quietly, are letting teams know that RF Nick Swisher is available.”
Nick Swisher! Available! Oh no! With just 87 characters, Nightengale created an uproar. Our inboxes started filling up with e-mails from RAB readers wondering if this rumor had any merit to it while Ben Nicholson-Smith at MLBTR wrote it up. Would the Yankees, already down a left fielder and a designated hitter, dare sell off Nick Swisher this off-season as well?
Of course, Swisher isn’t for sale, but debunking this rumor and contextualizing it isn’t that simple. It never is, and with the advent of the Internet, parsing rumors has grown more difficult. Let’s take this one for a ride though.
First, we must consider the source. Nightengale, a long-time vet of the Gannett daily, has a penchant rivaling that of Jon Heyman for conflating interest with a definite rumor. Here, he is taking a tidbit that isn’t quite news and spinning it into a secretive, hey-look-at-what-the-Yankees-are-doing item. That’s a clear warning sign that something is amiss.
Next, we must consider the nature of the rumor. What exactly are the Yankees doing? Well, they’re supposedly letting teams know that Nick Swisher can be had for a price. Is that news? I don’t think it is. Swisher is coming off of a rebound year in which he put up a 30.9 VORP. He is due $6.75 million in 2010 and $9 million in 2011, making him one of the more tradeable veterans on the Yanks. Of course, the team will solicit offers for him.
And that brings me to my next point. Third, we must consider what it means to be “available.” When a player is made available, it does not betray any interest on the Yanks’ part to see him shipped away. Rather, when a player is “available,” the Yankees expect other teams to put forward what they feel are reasonable proposals for this player. Without any insider knowledge, in fact, I believe this is how the Yankees acquired Swisher last year. The White Sox made him available; the Yankees made a low ball offer; Kenny Williams accepted; and the rest is history.
Beyond Swisher, though, the Yankees — and 29 other teams — generally make everyone available. Why not? Sometimes, a great trade comes along when teams aren’t actively shopping the player but when other teams know that potential trading partners are open to the idea of a trade. As far as the Yanks are concerned, the only players on the team who are not or should not be available include Derek Jeter, A-Rod, Mark Teixiera, CC Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Jesus Montero. Maybe we could add Jorge Posada and A.J. Burnett to make it a Gang of 10, but for the right price, anyone is tradeable.
In the end, this rumor isn’t about the Yanks’ faith or potential lack thereof in Nick Swisher. It’s not about their plans to leave themselves with a projected Opening Day outfield of Brett Gardner, Melky Cabrera and Austin Jackson. It’s about exploring options and not closing the door on a move that has the potential to make the team better. Odds are good that Nick Swisher will be in right field in April, but if he isn’t, then it’s because his departure made the team better. And that’s what it means to be available.
Assessing Matsui’s and a DH’s values
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We’ve been talking a lot about Hideki Matsui over the last few weeks. In the waning days of his most recent Yankee contract, he wowed us all in Game 6 of the World Series and won MVP accolades because of it. Now, the Yankees are faced with a tough choice. Do they let their everyday DH and Japanese superstar walk or do they try to bring him back?
Yesterday, we explored this question when we examined whether we would bring back Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui if we, as the Yankees seem to be doing, had to pick just one. With a heavy heart, I opted for Johnny Damon but noted that it would not be a mistake to bring back either one. Many commenters noted that Matsui may be had for a lesser price and fewer years than Damon. Those factors could very well be the difference in free agency.
Today, I want to put a different spin on the story. We’re going to look at Matsui’s perceived economic value to the team and then make a rough attempt to put a run value on Matsui’s DH production as compared with the Yanks’ willingness to use the DH in 2010 as a rotating rest spot for their veterans. The numbers are rough, but the conclusion is sound: The Yankees would be making a mistake if they opt against employing a true DH.
But first, the economics of Hideki Matsui. As we know, Matsui’s World Series MVP award set off a merchandising frenzy. Two days after the Fall Classic ended, Matsui memorabilia was in extremely high demand, and Godzilla’s popularity has grown in the ensuing two weeks. According to NPB Tracker, Matsui is now on pace to be as popular as Ichiro this off-season. He has received eight offers — three from preexisting sponsors and five from new ones — to appear in ads, and Patrick Newman estimates that Matsui could make $10 million this off-season. He adds:
Media demand has also rocketed for Matsui, as he has received an estimated 100 requests for television and event appearances in his home country. Even though his home for next season has yet to be determined, it’s not an understatement to say his new team (if the Yankees does not re-sign him) will have an opportunity to develop a big presence in the Land of the Rising Sun.
That opportunity sets Matsui apart from the rest of the free agent pool, in some regards. The Japanese-language signage we’ve been seeing in Yankee Stadium during Matsui’s tenure with the Yankees is sure to follow him wherever he goes. Every news program in Japan will show highlights from Matsui’s game, so a well-timed advertisement behind the plate will reach millions of Japanese homes on a nightly basis. With this comes a revenue opportunity that teams won’t get with, say, Jim Thome.
An article published today in Japanese alleged that the Yankees stand to lose at least $15 million if Matsui heads elsewhere. That is a significant economic impact, and one the team can’t just ignore. Considering that Matsui made $13 million in 2009 and shouldn’t earn that much again, he would basically pay for himself. Money, in other words, is not the issue.
With that in mind, what about his on-field value? As a DH, Matsui was among the best. His 32.6 VORP total placed him third among DHs and a good 12 VORP points — or approximately one win above replacement level — better than Jim Thome. I also attempted to calculate his relative value to the Yankees’ lineup using some MLVr figures.
MLVr — a rate estimation of marginal lineup value — calculates, according to Baseball Prospectus, the “additional number of runs a given player will contribute to a lineup that otherwise consists of average offensive performers.” Matsui’s MLVr in 2009 was 0.164 in 8.2 percent of the team’s plate appearances. By calculating the weighted MLVr total for the Yanks’ lineup and then multiplying it by nine — the number of spots in the lineup — we come up with a total that says the Yanks should have scored nearly 194 more runs than league average.
And this point, I have to stop to address that figure. In reality, the Yankees scored 134 more runs than the average AL team and 168 more than the Major League average. This is an inherent problem with MLVr, and Keith Woolner addressed it here four years ago. It is on the high side, but bear with me.
With that in mind, I made a few assumptions that won’t hold true. First, I held everyone’s production steady from 2009 to 2010 as well as their playing time. It’s unlikely to see the same level of offensive production from many of the aging Yankees, and the entire lineup should fall back from its lofty heights. That’s just a caveat.
Then, I removed Hideki Matsui from the equation and redistributed his playing time among Francisco Cervelli, Brett Gardner, Ramiro Peña and Jerry Hairston, Jr. With these players in the lineup and taking over Matsui’s plate appearance, the team’s offensive output based on MLVr declined to approximately 174 runs above average. No doubt this would still be a potent offensive team, but removing Matsui’s bat from the equation and replacing him with nothing could cost the Yanks 20 runs or nearly two wins.
Now, I recognize this is some of the more in-depth mathematical analysis than we usually employ around here, but the point is one the Yanks should take to heart. Hideki Matsui played a big role in the Yanks’ lineup this year, and they can’t just eschew a true DH to rest regulars while replacing Matsui’s at-bats with the cast of characters they employ off the bench. Matsui has an economic value for the team and a win value as well. Perhaps, then, the Yanks should indeed bring him back for 2010.
Who would you rather: Matsui or Damon
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Decisions, decisions, decisions. For the Yankees, with a few key older players hitting free agency, this winter is chock full of them. None of the choices the team will have to make is more fraught with emotion and potential impact than the one that looms regarding Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon.
By many accounts, the Yankees will try to bring back one of their two left-handed bats but not both. Right now, Matsui is the sentimental choice. Rebounding from an injury-plagued 2008, he had a stellar 2009 and single-handedly beat Pedro Martinez and the Phillies to help the Yanks clinch the decided Game 6 of the World Series. Damon, on the other hand, stole two bases on one play earlier in the World Series. He is in better physical shape than Matsui and represents a combination of speed and power atop the Yankee lineup.
So let’s try to answer it: If we had to pick one, which player would we resign: Hideki Matsui or Johnny Damon?
Offense
To start, let’s look at these two players’ offensive contributions this year. Although their individual contributions differ in style, in sum these two players are nearly identical. On the season, Damon hit .282/.365/.489 with 24 home runs and 36 doubles in 626 plate appearances. Matsui hit .274/.367/.509 with 28 home runs and 21 doubles in 526 plate appearances. Matsui outslugged Damon, but the Yanks’ left fielder went 12 for 12 in stolen base attempts. Eleven of those were steals of second, and as Matsui stole no bases this year, Damon’s speed is a plus.
On a contributory level, the numbers are awfully identically. Damon had a runs created per 27 outs of 6.8 while Matsui produced a 7.1 mark. Damon was 25.3 batting runs above average while Matsui was at 22.1, mostly due to the variance in playing time. Since that number is position-neutral though, we can’t gloss over the fact that Matsui is limited to DH duties. More on that later.
Drilling down on their respective positions through Baseball Prospectus’ Positional Marginal Value rate (PMLVr), Matsui’s offensive production begins to take the lead. His PMLVr was 0.164 while Damon’s was 0.124. The Yankees may want to use the rotating DH as a way to rest aging regulars next year, but Matsui as a good full-time DH offered the Yankees a lot of offensive value in 2009. However, on the position-dependent VORP scale, Damon (39.3) bested Matsui (33.4), but Matsui’s total was 11 VORP points above Jim Thome. Johnny was among the elite-hitting left fielders last year, but with Matt Holliday and Jason Bay out there, it’s far easier to replace Damon than it is Matsui.
Defense
On the defensive scale, the pendulum swings toward Matsui simply because Damon’s defense created a liability in left. Joe will have more about Damon’s defense later tonight. For now, I will just note that Damon’s fielding runs above average was -9.2. That total ranked him seventh worst among all Major League left fielders. Matsui, on the other hand, never had to play defense. The Yankees may have gained roster flexibility with Damon, but the numbers suggest that he shouldn’t be out in the field too often.
Damon’s defense, though, did not drop his value below that of Matsui’s. According to Fangraphs’ value figures, Damon gave the Yanks $13.6 million in production in 2009 while Matsui gave the team $11 million. The left fielder outperformed his contract value while the DH underperformed, albeit slightly.
Age and a Conclusion
Finally, we arrive at the age analysis and a few final thoughts. As hard as it is to believe, Damon is actually seven months older than Hideki Matsui. Yet, he hasn’t had the same physical problems with his knees as Matsui had and still has. Both players are at the age, though, where they can easily fall off a cliff production-wise. In fact, PECOTA pegged Damon for a 278/.352/.420/8 HR season, and he beat his 75th percentile projections. Matsui beat his 90th percentile projections. What this means for the future is more uncertainty. The two could stil be productive or they could crash and burn in 2010.
If the Yankees, then, are committed to keeping one, logic would lead me to take Damon over Matsui even if my emotions say otherwise. (I have, after all, always been a fan of Matsui’s.) Although a liability in the field, Damon is still physically capable of playing left, and he can still run. His 12 stolen base attempts were the fewest he made since 1995, but that has more to do with his role as a two hitter than anything else. His 12-for-12 mark in that category is what counts.
There is, however, a rub. I wouldn’t sign Damon to be the left fielder. Instead, I would ask Damon to DH. His production is in line with that of Matsui’s, and at Yankee Stadium, he has the power to man the DH spot and could fill in at left when needed. The right replacement left fielder could help the team recover from the loss of Matsui as well.
In the end, though, if the Yanks are thinking properly and Damon is expected to DH, there isn’t a wrong choice. The team shouldn’t go into Spring Training without a big bat in the DH spot. A lineup sporting one of Francisco Cervelli, Ramiro Pena, Jerry Hairston, Jr., or Brett Gardner every day would represent a significant downgrade over the 2009 team. So pick your poison. Just pick it for the designated hitter spot.
Rumor du jour: An extension window for Halladay
Posted by: | CommentsAs a follow-up to yesterday’s discussion on Roy Halladay, Jordian Bastian of MLB.com throws a wrench into the plans. According to Bastian’s sources, the Blue Jays are willing to allow a negotiating window for any team interested in acquiring Halladay. The Blue Jays’ ace has just one year left on his contract, and a negotiating window would allow Toronto to extract more value for Halladay. As iYankees notes, this move is a similar to the one the Twins employed in the Santana trade talks, and I’m not surprised to hear it. After all, as I said yesterday, the Blue Jays need to land a big impact player if the team trades Halladay, and a negotiating window gives them more leverage.
In other rumor news, Tyler Kepner runs down the potential organizational wishlist for the Hot Stove league. He doesn’t cover much new ground, but the summary is a succinct one of the Yanks’ desires for an outfielder, a starting pitcher and a few younger players. A team of mid-to-late 30s players can only carry a franchise so far.
A role, defined or not, for Joba
Posted by: | CommentsWhen Brian Cashman announced last week that Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes would not have significant innings limits next season, he hedged his bets on the two youngsters’ true roles. “I look at them as starters that can relieve,” Cashman said. “But I look at them as starters.”
In one sense, that characterization gives the Yanks some flexibility. They know for a fact that Phil Hughes can be a lockdown reliever, and they believe he can be a dominant starter. They know for a fact that Joba Chamberlain can be a lockdown reliever, and they know that he can be a dominant starter. If knowing, as they say, is half the battle, well, then the Yankees are halfway there.
This flexibility gives them the opportunity to take a wait-and-see approach to this winter’s pitching market. They have CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett inked in to the top two slots and will likely enjoy the services of Andy Pettitte as well. Behind those three await some combination of Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Chad Gaudin and Ian Kennedy with Al Aceves, Sergio Mitre and Chien-Ming Wang as potential options as well. John Lackey is out there; Roy Halladay is out there; Ben Sheets is out there. Any addition would be icing on the depth chake.
With this plethora of pitching comes some uncertainty though. Talking to reporters last night as his Wrap to Rap charity event, Joba noted that his role for 2010 remains undefined. Here’s how MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo put it:
As for Chamberlain, the Yankees have not yet told him whether he should prepare as a starting pitcher or a reliever. With Spring Training still three months away, Chamberlain has not even begun working out again, much less throwing…
By the time the postseason rolled around, the Yankees had decided to proceed with a three-man rotation, thereby relegating Chamberlain back to the bullpen. And his future remains unclear. The only hints he has received have come from general manager Brian Cashman, who said last week that he envisioned both Chamberlain and Phil Hughes as starters — but starters who are capable of relieving. “So he didn’t really answer the question,” Chamberlain cracked.
In a way, this is a spurious extrapolation by DiComo. The Yankees remained committed to Joba the starter throughout the 2009 season, and despite a late-season slide — possibly brought about by inconsistent rules — Joba met expectations. He stayed healthy throughout the season and made his starts to greater or lesser degrees of success.
The postseason, though, has a funny way of clouding perception. Although Joba’s overall October numbers were in line with his season totals, the eyes can tell a slightly different story. During the AL playoff rounds and World Series, Joba was indeed throwing a tick harder. During the playoffs, he averaged around 94/95 and dialed it up to 97/98, up a few miles per hour over his season numbers. That difference can turn Joba from an above-average pitcher to an elite one, and although he doesn’t have to sustain that velocity over the course of 34 starts, that it disappeared this year after it was there for 2008 led to a few questions this season.
In the end, as I mentioned in the comments to Joe’s post on Ben Sheets, Joba’s role may very well depend upon how the Yanks’ off-season unfolds. If the pitcher depth is there for the Yanks, they have the luxury of knowing that Joba (and Phil) can succeed in the bullpen, but on the depth charts, Joba probably has an edge for a rotation spot over Phil simply because he has the innings, experience and success under his belt.
In the meantime, Joba doesn’t mind the uncertainty. “It’s a great problem to have for Phil and myself,” he said. “We’ve been in situations and there’s a lot of things we can be. I think it’s an advantage for our team that there are so many different options to make us better for 2010.”
I believe Joba is a starter and should spend the off-season preparing as such. He doesn’t really need Brian Cashman to come out and say it, but we know it. When all is said and done, 2010 will seen Joba in the rotation, and the Yanks are better off for it.
Yanks decline option on Mitre
Posted by: | CommentsVia Marc Carig on Twitter, the Yankees have declined the $1.25 million option the team held on Sergio Mitre. This move, however, does not portend the end of Mitre’s pinstriped career. Since he is arbitration-eligible, he remains, as Carig notes, under team control. The Yanks could still opt to non-tender him, but for the amount it will cost to resign him, Brian Cashman will look to retain him on an incentive-laden deal. Just a few days ago, I predicted that the Yanks would pick up his option. So much for that.
Drilling down on Roy Halladay
Posted by: | CommentsWhen it comes to pitchers on the block, the Yankees are always a likely destination simply because, for the last 15 years, landing pitchers has been the team’s modus operandi. They acquired David Cone in 1995, David Wells after the 1996 season and Roger Clemens prior to 1999 campaign. In the 2000s, the names — Javier Vazquez, Randy Johnson — kept coming but with less success, and just a year ago, the Yankees nabbed CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett out of the clutches of free agency.
So we arrive in the winter of 2009-2010 with Roy Halladay seemingly filling the role Johan Santana played in 2007-2008. Already, the Yankees have been rumored to be interested in Roy Halladay, and the new Blue Jays’ GM Alex Anthopoulos seems both willing to ship off Halladay and willing to send him to an AL East competitor.
The parallels to Santana are obvious. Halladay is one of the American League’s top five pitchers, and as he has aged, he’s become a smarter and better pitcher. Over the last two years, he’s 37-21 with a 2.78 ERA and 414 strike outs in 485 innings. He has thrown a whopping 18 complete games over the last two years. As a comparison, the Yankees’ entire pitching staffs have thrown just four complete games in that same span.
Similar to Santana, Halladay is playing out the last year of his contract, and the Blue Jays are unlikely to resign him after 2010. Furthermore, as the Twins were in 2007, the Blue Jays are living through their first off-season under a new General Manager. While Bill Smith inherited a healthy organization, Anthopoulos has his work cut out for him as he tries to compete with the big guns of the East while uncoupled Toronto from a few bad contracts.
So what, then, would a potential trade partner expect the Blue Jays to want, at least initially? For Anthopoulus, trading Halladay will be a defining moment of this off-season. He’ll be trading one of the best pitchers to throw in Toronto and big crowd favorite at a time when the team is hurting for attendance. He’ll need to recoup that investment while stocking up for the future. In that sense, I don’t see him settling for a package as weak as the one Minnesota received for Santana.
If I were a betting man, I’d guess that Anthopoulus would initially ask for Jesus Montero. At that point, Brian Cashman would hang up the phone. But the point remains: Toronto will need an impact, near-can’t miss prospect to give up Halladay right now. Since the Doc has but one year left on his contract, a team acquiring him may have to give up just one prospect, but it will be a costly one. Would Austin Jackson get the job done? Would the Yankees feel comfortable trading him? Does Toronto, as many others do, feel Jackson’s stock is low right now?
In writing about John Lackey last week, Joe mentioned how Halladay is a desired piece potentially available next winter. That, of course, is where the Yanks found themselves with Santana, but Johan never hit free agency. Brian Cashman will have to ask himself if he wants Halladay enough to pay in prospects and later in cash or if the team is willing to chance it and wait. Josh Beckett and Cliff Lee loom large in 2011 as well.
Right now, this is sheer speculation and the framework for a discussion on Halladay. The rumor mill is quiet in advance of the Winter Meetings, and teams are waiting to see how the market shakes down. When the Hot Stove warms up, Halladay will be front and center. Let’s see how the Yanks approach a big-name pitcher this time around.
